Why isn't Barber in the TOP TIER? (1 Viewer)

[The Ghost of Common]

I can't get over the fact that Barber is being mentioned as a late first rounder / early second round guy.

All the signs are there for this guy to have a huge season. He has performed well whenever he has had the opportunity. He has almost zero competition for his job, he has the money incentive to make things happen. He is on arguably the Super Bowl favorite team in the NFC in a great opened-up offense.

I would pick this guy in the top 5 without blinking.

I've read the spotlight and the negative points are not even all that negative. He doesn't have the red flags that the other top guys have. He is at a prime age.

I honestly think NEXT season - we will be talking about taking Barber in the top 3 for RBs.

This is a must-target in ALL leagues IMO.

Discuss or talk me off of the ledge here.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

risk. he's never had more than 200'ish carries. never rushed for over 1000 yards in a season.

you're projecting him out, which is risky. sure, there's a good chance he'll do well. but it helps to see it once before crowning him.

 

[TheHosers]

I'm right there with you Ghost. I have him 4th after LT-ADP-Jackson and before Addai&Westbrook although I am a non-PPR guy where he would be lower.

I know they drafted Jones but he won't be the red zone TD machine. I think Barber can be a Steven Jackson type punishing every down runner although I don't see the catches that SJ gets.

 

[AllVolUT]

I can't get over the fact that Barber is being mentioned as a late first rounder / early second round guy.

All the signs are there for this guy to have a huge season. He has performed well whenever he has had the opportunity. He has almost zero competition for his job, he has the money incentive to make things happen. He is on arguably the Super Bowl favorite team in the NFC in a great opened-up offense.

I would pick this guy in the top 5 without blinking.

I've read the spotlight and the negative points are not even all that negative. He doesn't have the red flags that the other top guys have. He is at a prime age.

I honestly think NEXT season - we will be talking about taking Barber in the top 3 for RBs.

This is a must-target in ALL leagues IMO.

Discuss or talk me off of the ledge here.

While I do like MBIII, I'm not sure I agree with this statement.

 

[EBF]

Felix "The Cat" Jones

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I can't get over the fact that Barber is being mentioned as a late first rounder / early second round guy.

Where? I've seen him ranked 6-9 in threads here and cheatsheets.I agree with others here that he carries more risk than others in top five; i wouldn't put him there.

 

[KellysHeroes]

What leagues are you playing in... I have not seen him go lower than 7 or 8 all yr.

 

[joffer]

he's got an outside chance at 20 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

1) Not enough touches

2) We have seen no evidence that he will get more than what he's gotten in terms of touches

3) They didn't draft Jones to have him watch every play from the sidelines

4) While he's scored a ton of TD the past two years, TDs are the hardest thing to project from year to year

I personally would not take him in the first round, as I don't see him as an automatic Top 5 guy.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

1) Not enough touches2) We have seen no evidence that he will get more than what he's gotten in terms of touches3) They didn't draft Jones to have him watch every play from the sidelines4) While he's scored a ton of TD the past two years, TDs are the hardest thing to project from year to year

Great assessment, David.

 

[FUBAR]

1) Not enough touches

2) We have seen no evidence that he will get more than what he's gotten in terms of touches

3) They didn't draft Jones to have him watch every play from the sidelines

4) While he's scored a ton of TD the past two years, TDs are the hardest thing to project from year to year

I personally would not take him in the first round, as I don't see him as an automatic Top 5 guy.

Check out the "loved" thread for more, but David is completely right here.

Barber is a good back, I personally don't think he has the talent of the truly elite RBs, although he does benefit from playing on one of the best offenses in the league. He's basically Addai with less carries and more TDs. The key "scare factor" to me is #4 above.

In a redraft, if he's available in the 2nd, I'll take him, but not in the 1st, DEFINITELY not top 5 - except if it's a TD only league, then he might be #3.

 

[MAC_32]

I can't get over the fact that Barber is being mentioned as a late first rounder / early second round guy.

Where? and was it by more than a couple of people? His ADP is around pick 7 or 8 depending on the source, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[VTjkru]

In my recent auction he was one of the top 6 highest RBs to go. But if you have seen him go lower it's because he's not proven as a stand alone back.

 

[treat88]

I don't understand why Barber retains his lofty ADP despite the drafting of Felix Jones, while Willie Parker falls to the bottom half of RB's due almost exclusively to the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall.

Despite extremely dissimilar styles, the two seem to be in analogous situations. They have both demonstrated elite production. They both are on explosive offenses. They both have been paired with talented complements and should be in line for 250ish touches. I expect both to have very productive seasons.

Give the nod to Dallas for the O-line and I agree that Barber should be the first of the two off the board. But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

 

[cantstop1999]

im picking 6th this year and im really looking hard at him. the real problem im having with him is the way they have ran the running game the last 2 years . they alway use 2 backs. Barber may not see much more carries and his td's could go down ,you never know with td's. if i knew he was going to see 275-300 carries i would be all of him. for now im waiting and seeing but we might not know until into the season and then it's to late. so for me it's going to be a tuff call, i will see who is still on the board and then make a dicision.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Lets not stop there, Dallas also drafted Tashard Choice. Choice was the top-rated senior RB by Kiper.

If anything Barber is overrated by people thinking he's going to get 300+ carries this year.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Lets not stop there, Dallas also drafted Tashard Choice. Choice was the top-rated senior RB by Kiper. If anything Barber is overrated by people thinking he's going to get 300+ carries this year.

Dallas had 1 RB under contract. They needed to add two backs to the roster through the draft or free agency anyway. You won't find a bigger fan of Choice than me but he's nothing more than insurance and the third string guy. Remember Barber had not signed his long term deal as of the draft so Jones was looking towards the future if Barber signed a one year deal and then walked.Barber finished as the number 7 back last year while Julius Jones got 190 touches. Does anyone here think Felix Jones will get more than 190 touches in his rookie season? I do not so Barber's 245 touches certainly is not going to be reduced. For those that do not think he's a first rounder, I would love to see the 12 players ranked above him.

 

[Marc Levin]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

 

[Bluetooth]

Lets not stop there, Dallas also drafted Tashard Choice. Choice was the top-rated senior RB by Kiper. If anything Barber is overrated by people thinking he's going to get 300+ carries this year.

Dallas had 1 RB under contract. They needed to add two backs to the roster through the draft or free agency anyway. You won't find a bigger fan of Choice than me but he's nothing more than insurance and the third string guy. Remember Barber had not signed his long term deal as of the draft so Jones was looking towards the future if Barber signed a one year deal and then walked.Barber finished as the number 7 back last year while Julius Jones got 190 touches. Does anyone here think Felix Jones will get more than 190 touches in his rookie season? I do not so Barber's 245 touches certainly is not going to be reduced. For those that do not think he's a first rounder, I would love to see the 12 players ranked above him.

I don't usually waste time posting things like this, but this guy has it dead on. No way do Barber's numbers get worse.

 

[treat88]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

16 in 06?See Yudkin's #4 above.Barber is just as likely to see his TD total decrease as Parker was in 07. That is not very damn likely. Parker's TD totals were a statistical anomaly.I would peg both to be good for between 8 - 12 TD's.If that explains the disparity people aren't paying close enough attention.

 

[David Yudkin]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

16 in 06?See Yudkin's #4 above.Barber is just as likely to see his TD total decrease as Parker was in 07. That is not very damn likely. Parker's TD totals were a statistical anomaly.I would peg both to be good for between 8 - 12 TD's.If that explains the disparity people aren't paying close enough attention.

Barber is the perfect example of what I've been saying in these threads. In 2006, he had under 160 touches and 16 TD, which for those of you scoring at home (or even if you're not) is pretty rare.I said all along that he would need to get way more touches to do as well because he could not sustain that TD ratio. He did exactly that, garnering 100 more touches but 4 fewer TD. If he had slipped 3 more TD, he would have fallen to 12th in the rankings and had essentially the same point total as 2006. In some years, Barber's 198 points scored were have barely made him a Top 15 RB.And to clarify, I'm not dissing Barber and he could very well end up scoring enough to earn back his draft spot. But I'll let someone else take that chance while I take someone that is going to get the ball 300-350 times (maybe more).

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

16 in 06?See Yudkin's #4 above.Barber is just as likely to see his TD total decrease as Parker was in 07. That is not very damn likely. Parker's TD totals were a statistical anomaly.I would peg both to be good for between 8 - 12 TD's.If that explains the disparity people aren't paying close enough attention.

Barber is the perfect example of what I've been saying in these threads. In 2006, he had under 160 touches and 16 TD, which for those of you scoring at home (or even if you're not) is pretty rare.I said all along that he would need to get way more touches to do as well because he could not sustain that TD ratio. He did exactly that, garnering 100 more touches but 4 fewer TD. If he had slipped 3 more TD, he would have fallen to 12th in the rankings and had essentially the same point total as 2006. In some years, Barber's 198 points scored were have barely made him a Top 15 RB.And to clarify, I'm not dissing Barber and he could very well end up scoring enough to earn back his draft spot. But I'll let someone else take that chance while I take someone that is going to get the ball 300-350 times (maybe more).

What RB would you draft ahead of Barber?

 

[David Yudkin]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

16 in 06?See Yudkin's #4 above.Barber is just as likely to see his TD total decrease as Parker was in 07. That is not very damn likely. Parker's TD totals were a statistical anomaly.I would peg both to be good for between 8 - 12 TD's.If that explains the disparity people aren't paying close enough attention.

Barber is the perfect example of what I've been saying in these threads. In 2006, he had under 160 touches and 16 TD, which for those of you scoring at home (or even if you're not) is pretty rare.I said all along that he would need to get way more touches to do as well because he could not sustain that TD ratio. He did exactly that, garnering 100 more touches but 4 fewer TD. If he had slipped 3 more TD, he would have fallen to 12th in the rankings and had essentially the same point total as 2006. In some years, Barber's 198 points scored were have barely made him a Top 15 RB.And to clarify, I'm not dissing Barber and he could very well end up scoring enough to earn back his draft spot. But I'll let someone else take that chance while I take someone that is going to get the ball 300-350 times (maybe more).

What RB would you draft ahead of Barber?

Quite a few, actually. I wouldn't consider him in the first round and I have yet to see him last into the second, so I don't really have an answer for you. And for me it's not only RBs. He'd come after some QB and WR, so I'd consider him in the middle to end of Round 2. I could very easily be wrong on that one, but that's where I would take him. Of the guys with partial workloads, I would consider MJD over Barber if only because he is going like 15 picks later (which is probably where I think Barber should be going).

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Two letters: T and D.Parker doesn't score 'em, Barber does.That's not me advocating anything, but if you don't understand why the disparity has occurred, there's your answer.

16 in 06?See Yudkin's #4 above.Barber is just as likely to see his TD total decrease as Parker was in 07. That is not very damn likely. Parker's TD totals were a statistical anomaly.I would peg both to be good for between 8 - 12 TD's.If that explains the disparity people aren't paying close enough attention.

Barber is the perfect example of what I've been saying in these threads. In 2006, he had under 160 touches and 16 TD, which for those of you scoring at home (or even if you're not) is pretty rare.I said all along that he would need to get way more touches to do as well because he could not sustain that TD ratio. He did exactly that, garnering 100 more touches but 4 fewer TD. If he had slipped 3 more TD, he would have fallen to 12th in the rankings and had essentially the same point total as 2006. In some years, Barber's 198 points scored were have barely made him a Top 15 RB.And to clarify, I'm not dissing Barber and he could very well end up scoring enough to earn back his draft spot. But I'll let someone else take that chance while I take someone that is going to get the ball 300-350 times (maybe more).

What RB would you draft ahead of Barber?

Quite a few, actually. I wouldn't consider him in the first round and I have yet to see him last into the second, so I don't really have an answer for you. And for me it's not only RBs. He'd come after some QB and WR, so I'd consider him in the middle to end of Round 2. I could very easily be wrong on that one, but that's where I would take him. Of the guys with partial workloads, I would consider MJD over Barber if only because he is going like 15 picks later (which is probably where I think Barber should be going).

Would love to see where Barber falls in your RB rankings once you do know. I just can't come up with 10-12 RB that would be above him and it sounds like you have at least that many.

 

[Tau837]

1) Not enough touches2) We have seen no evidence that he will get more than what he's gotten in terms of touches3) They didn't draft Jones to have him watch every play from the sidelines4) While he's scored a ton of TD the past two years, TDs are the hardest thing to project from year to yearI personally would not take him in the first round, as I don't see him as an automatic Top 5 guy.

1-3 are all essentially the same point, though I do agree with that point.

 

[The Ghost of Common]

and I do apologize for starting threads like this. I know there was a player spotlight already on this guy.

This is a RB that I feel I MUST own in my Auction League and for the reasons I posted, I don't see a better value out there.

Very good discussion so far.

 

[KellysHeroes]

1) Not enough touches2) We have seen no evidence that he will get more than what he's gotten in terms of touches3) They didn't draft Jones to have him watch every play from the sidelines4) While he's scored a ton of TD the past two years, TDs are the hardest thing to project from year to yearI personally would not take him in the first round, as I don't see him as an automatic Top 5 guy.

This is a good sum up of all the arguments towards MBIII... and i can understand them.But I'm on the other side of this fence on this one. Barber is very talented, and the better ball carrier will get the ball.I expect him to get more touches than last yr; I'm not saying 300, but no 250 would fell right.

 

[switz]

But I'm on the other side of this fence on this one. Barber is very talented, and the better ball carrier will get the ball.

So you think Felix Jones is going to get the lion's share of carries by the end of the season? Because if you are going to argue talent, Jones has way more than Barber. Faster, better moves, better hands, less power. That's his only negative, he doesn't have the power that Barber has, which is why Barber will still get the GL and short yardage work.But don't be surprised to see Felix score a number of long TDs.Barber is on the border of a top-10 back. Not any higher than that. And the people drafting him 4-6 are going to regret it by the end of the year.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

I don't understand why Barber retains his lofty ADP despite the drafting of Felix Jones, while Willie Parker falls to the bottom half of RB's due almost exclusively to the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall. Despite extremely dissimilar styles, the two seem to be in analogous situations. They have both demonstrated elite production. They both are on explosive offenses. They both have been paired with talented complements and should be in line for 250ish touches. I expect both to have very productive seasons.Give the nod to Dallas for the O-line and I agree that Barber should be the first of the two off the board. But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Good question, but a simple answer.FWP trailed off last year for TDs, whereas MB3 has been $$$ for TDs.But that pales in comparison to the real reason - MB3 can put up RB1-type fantasy numbers on fewer than 20 touches a game. FWP can't.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Lets not stop there, Dallas also drafted Tashard Choice. Choice was the top-rated senior RB by Kiper. If anything Barber is overrated by people thinking he's going to get 300+ carries this year.

Dallas had 1 RB under contract. They needed to add two backs to the roster through the draft or free agency anyway. You won't find a bigger fan of Choice than me but he's nothing more than insurance and the third string guy. Remember Barber had not signed his long term deal as of the draft so Jones was looking towards the future if Barber signed a one year deal and then walked.Barber finished as the number 7 back last year while Julius Jones got 190 touches. Does anyone here think Felix Jones will get more than 190 touches in his rookie season? I do not so Barber's 245 touches certainly is not going to be reduced. For those that do not think he's a first rounder, I would love to see the 12 players ranked above him.

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year. I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

 

[switz]

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

But those wouldn't be a top-4-6 finish in a normal year for RBs....

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

But those wouldn't be a top-4-6 finish in a normal year for RBs....

List the RB you would draft ahead of Barber

 

[Banger]

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

But those wouldn't be a top-4-6 finish in a normal year for RBs....

List the RB you would draft ahead of Barber

can't speak for him but I'd put him behind...LTADPSJaxWestyAddaiGore and right in the same tier as Portis, LJ, Lynch and McGahee.

 

[Buffaloes]

There are a lot of questions still surrounding MBIII. Sure, Barber is a TD machine in a high-octane offense. He's a good receiver out of the backfield too. But he's still in RBBC. Felix Jones was brought in and I think he will be much more effective than Julius Jones. Couple that with Barber's violent running style that might lead to injury and the fact that he seemed to wear down at the end of the playoff game against the Giants and I don't think you have an elite back--yet.

I'd take:

LT, ADP, Westy, Addai, Gore, Jackson, Portis before Barber.

 

[Tau837]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year. I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPTHow many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

 

[BigRed]

No way do Barber's numbers get worse.

...which means MAYBE my top RB would crack 1000 yds? And a top pick just spent on another RB to worry about (has anyone considered that if Jones looks notably better than the highly unimpressive JJ did, he might get more touches?). No thanks. Love him as a RB2 but he won't be my RB1.

and I do apologize for starting threads like this. I know there was a player spotlight already on this guy.This is a RB that I feel I MUST own in my Auction League and for the reasons I posted, I don't see a better value out there.

I'm curious what kind of price you expect to pay to get him.....

 

[Urinal Mint]

The status quo isn't going to change in Dallas.

Barber will see about the same amount of balls he saw in 06 and 07... probably closer to the 06 number as it's presumed Felix Jones and/or Tashard Choice will be a better share-the-load option than Julius Jones ever was. He doesn't handle the ball enough to be a top tier RB, and I think Dallas fans can thank their lucky stars for it, too.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

No way do Barber's numbers get worse.

...which means MAYBE my top RB would crack 1000 yds? And a top pick just spent on another RB to worry about (has anyone considered that if Jones looks notably better than the highly unimpressive JJ did, he might get more touches?). No thanks. Love him as a RB2 but he won't be my RB1.

and I do apologize for starting threads like this. I know there was a player spotlight already on this guy.This is a RB that I feel I MUST own in my Auction League and for the reasons I posted, I don't see a better value out there.

I'm curious what kind of price you expect to pay to get him.....

What RB would you take ahead of Barber?

 

[treat88]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.

Not much in terms of answers.

Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.

Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.

He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

 

[David Yudkin]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.Not much in terms of answers.Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

300+ carries and 3 or fewer TD . . . and how many they scored the following season:Curtis Martin 2003 2 . . . 2004 12Willie Parker 2007 2 . . . 2008 ?Jerome Bettis 1994 3 . . . 1995 3Edgar Bennett 1995 3 . . . 2Jerome Bettis 1998 3 . . . 7Thomas Jones 2007 1 . . . ?Reuben Droughns 2005 2 . . . 2006 4Lydell Mitchell 1977 3 . . . 1978 3 Not exactly a great track record for other guys.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.Not much in terms of answers.Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

Touchdowns, FWP didn't have many last year nor was he used much around the goaline without Mendenhall on the team. Barber is used around the goaline, Dallas probably has a little better offense than Pittsburgh heading into the season and although Dallas did draft Jones, he's not the type of back that Mendenhall is. He's not a threat to steal his goaline carries.Still, he isn't a proven 300 rusher so you're right, there's some risk involved when selecting him in the top 8.I don't really see why he can't get 280 carries, around 4 yards per carry, double digit Td's with about 40 plus receptions.

 

[treat88]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.Not much in terms of answers.Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

300+ carries and 3 or fewer TD . . . and how many they scored the following season:Curtis Martin 2003 2 . . . 2004 Willie Parker 2007 2 . . . 2008 ?Jerome Bettis 1994 3 . . . 1995 3Edgar Bennett 1995 3 . . . 2Jerome Bettis 1998 3 . . . 7Thomas Jones 2007 1 . . . ?Reuben Droughns 2005 2 . . . 2006 4Lydell Mitchell 1977 3 . . . 1978 3 Not exactly a great track record for other guys.

Martin had 12 in 04.Bettis had 11 in 96, 9 in 02, 13 in 04.So while you are right generally about year n+1, subsequent years continue to display the variability of TD scoring.Hence my slight downgrading of Barber. He derives a significant chunk of his value from getting into the end zone at an extremely high rate in relatively limited opps. I just don't think it's sustainable. It's not a comment on his talent, nor am I pimping FWP and Jennings. I am simply questioning the selective skepticism applied in these three instances.

 

[Mene]

While I'm still not sure about Barber, the one thing not being mentioned much here is the 45 million, 16 of which is guaranteed, that he is getting paid. I just don't see Jones committing that kind of money to a guy he views and part of a full fledged RBBC. It's well doccumented how involved Jones is in the Cowboys, even down to the field. My gut says Barber gets a bump in touches, around the 300 (260/40) mark I figure. That'd still leave a fair share for Felix, 100+ for sure. The TD's... again, he's a machine inside the 20 on a team that will provide a ton of opporunity down there. It may be impossible to predect TD's from year to year, but I certainly look at this as a safe bet.

Even with all that speculation on my part, I really have a hard time taking him at 6-8. Would love him at 10 - 12 though. Guess that's because my gut is far from 100% historically.

 

[David Yudkin]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.Not much in terms of answers.Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

300+ carries and 3 or fewer TD . . . and how many they scored the following season:Curtis Martin 2003 2 . . . 2004 Willie Parker 2007 2 . . . 2008 ?Jerome Bettis 1994 3 . . . 1995 3Edgar Bennett 1995 3 . . . 2Jerome Bettis 1998 3 . . . 7Thomas Jones 2007 1 . . . ?Reuben Droughns 2005 2 . . . 2006 4Lydell Mitchell 1977 3 . . . 1978 3 Not exactly a great track record for other guys.

Martin had 12 in 04.Bettis had 11 in 96, 9 in 02, 13 in 04.So while you are right generally about year n+1, subsequent years continue to display the variability of TD scoring.Hence my slight downgrading of Barber. He derives a significant chunk of his value from getting into the end zone at an extremely high rate in relatively limited opps. I just don't think it's sustainable. It's not a comment on his talent, nor am I pimping FWP and Jennings. I am simply questioning the selective skepticism applied in these three instances.

I have been saying the same thing about TD being more random than any other stat, so you are preaching to the choir on that.

 

[hauser42]

How about that Barber fizzled in the playoff game after a big 1st half, he has not proven he can carry the load for one whole game much less a season.

TD only leagues he night be close to a top 5 but that might be a reach since the Cowboys have TO and Witten to use in the red zone.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.

Not much in terms of answers.

Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.

Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.

He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

I don't understand why Barber retains his lofty ADP despite the drafting of Felix Jones, while Willie Parker falls to the bottom half of RB's due almost exclusively to the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall.

Despite extremely dissimilar styles, the two seem to be in analogous situations. They have both demonstrated elite production. They both are on explosive offenses. They both have been paired with talented complements and should be in line for 250ish touches. I expect both to have very productive seasons.

Give the nod to Dallas for the O-line and I agree that Barber should be the first of the two off the board. But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Good question, but a simple answer.FWP trailed off last year for TDs, whereas MB3 has been $$$ for TDs.

But that pales in comparison to the real reason - MB3 can put up RB1-type fantasy numbers on fewer than 20 touches a game. FWP can't.

 

[joffer]

top tier? no

but $19 million guaranteed for a part-time RB? ridiculous

a lot of people assuming Felix Jones is going to be a successful NFL RB.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):

2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT

2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT

2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPT

How many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.

For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

Nice try, but that's not a comparison of like elements.You compare LT's career numbers to MB3's yearly production. Apples and oranges.

How about MB3's career numbers? 474 points in 562 touches = 0.84 FPPT

Again, not trying to make the comparison personally, but your argument was flawed on this point and misleading.

 

[treat88]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.

Not much in terms of answers.

Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.

Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.

He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

I don't understand why Barber retains his lofty ADP despite the drafting of Felix Jones, while Willie Parker falls to the bottom half of RB's due almost exclusively to the drafting of Rashard Mendenhall.

Despite extremely dissimilar styles, the two seem to be in analogous situations. They have both demonstrated elite production. They both are on explosive offenses. They both have been paired with talented complements and should be in line for 250ish touches. I expect both to have very productive seasons.

Give the nod to Dallas for the O-line and I agree that Barber should be the first of the two off the board. But why one warrants a massive devaluation and the other remains elite I don't know.

Good question, but a simple answer.FWP trailed off last year for TDs, whereas MB3 has been $$$ for TDs.

But that pales in comparison to the real reason - MB3 can put up RB1-type fantasy numbers on fewer than 20 touches a game. FWP can't.

See previous posts relating to TD variability.I don't consider the TD argument a legitimate answer, hence not much in terms of answers.

Not trying to be difficult.

 

[Tau837]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):

2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT

2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT

2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPT

How many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.

For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

Nice try, but that's not a comparison of like elements.You compare LT's career numbers to MB3's yearly production. Apples and oranges.

How about MB3's career numbers? 474 points in 562 touches = 0.84 FPPT

Again, not trying to make the comparison personally, but your argument was flawed on this point and misleading.

Perhaps the comparison was flawed in how I presented it, but the conclusions aren't. I said I don't think Barber is in Tomlinson's class, and you have just shown that Barber's career FPPT to date is higher than Tomlinson's... which supports my point that I think it will drop.My more general point was obviously in reference to your comment that you'd be happy with his numbers from last year, unconcerned about his touches because he gets such "healthy" production per touch. I don't believe Barber is likely to repeat those numbers, because I think his FPPT will drop, and I don't think his touches will go up enough to offset that.