Why isn't Barber in the TOP TIER? (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):

2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT

2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT

2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPT

How many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.

For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

Nice try, but that's not a comparison of like elements.You compare LT's career numbers to MB3's yearly production. Apples and oranges.

How about MB3's career numbers? 474 points in 562 touches = 0.84 FPPT

Again, not trying to make the comparison personally, but your argument was flawed on this point and misleading.

Perhaps the comparison was flawed in how I presented it, but the conclusions aren't. I said I don't think Barber is in Tomlinson's class, and you have just shown that Barber's career FPPT to date is higher than Tomlinson's... which supports my point that I think it will drop.My more general point was obviously in reference to your comment that you'd be happy with his numbers from last year, unconcerned about his touches because he gets such "healthy" production per touch. I don't believe Barber is likely to repeat those numbers, because I think his FPPT will drop, and I don't think his touches will go up enough to offset that.

The comparison was flawed, as was your conclusions.Again, I really don't care if a player takes 3 touches or 30 to amass fantasy points - just that they are there at the end of the day.

MB3 has shown that he puts up numbers, period. I never said anything about his healthy production PER TOUCH - just his production.

Riddle me this - if he puts up the same exact fantasy points this year on 50 more touches, does your fantasy team do better or worse?

 

[JKL]

I agree with those that generally say that TD-heavy fantasy production is less likely to repeat itself. But here's the thing--Barber isn't just a TD vulture. He has averaged 4.8 ypc and is involved in the passing game, so while we might normally expect a decline, his non-td stats portend a guy that should get greater opportunity going forward.

I know Yudkin says he hasn't gotten the carries so far, so we have no evidence that he will in the future. Here are some guys that had similar (though usually not as good) TD production, above average ypc (4.4 or better) and similar reception totals, and didn't cross 200 rush attempts til age 24, like Barber:

Neal Anderson: He had 164 rush attempts his first two years while playing behind Payton. At age 24, he had 249 rushes, 4.4 ypc, 12 TD's, and 39 receptions. He finished as RB3, RB3, and RB7 at ages 25-27 respectively, never having more than 274 rush attempts or 324 total touches in any one season.

Greg Pruitt: Pruitt had 189 total rush attempts in his first two seasons in the league, and made the pro bowl as a returner in both. He finished RB7 with 210 rush attempts (4.9 ypc) at age 24, and would finish RB10 and RB5 the next two seasons, primarily due to low TD numbers (9 total for next two seasons), because his ypc and receiving numbers were great.

Wilbert Montgomery Montgomery finished as RB5 at age 24, his first season with 200+ carries, with 259 and a 4.7 ypc. He would finish RB3, RB11 (4 games missed), RB6, and RB6 over the next 4 years.

Wendell Tyler. Tyler had 75 total carries his first two years in the league. At age 24 in 1979, he had 218 rushes, 5.1 ypc, and 10 total TD's for an RB12 finish. He blew out his knee early the next season. He returned at age 26-27 to finish as RB5 and RB2.

Franco Harris. Harris had 188 rushes each of his first two seasons, and 208 at age 24, with a 4.8 ypc. His carries increased to 262 the next season, and he finished RB4, RB6, and RB7 over the next 3 years.

Rudi Johnson. Rudi rarely played his first 2 seasons, then had 215 attempts, a 4.5 ypc and 9 TD's in 2003 at age 24. The team traded away Corey Dillon and drafted a far more talented back than Rudi, Chris Perry, in the second half of the first round the next year. Perry replaced Johnson as the starter by year's end. Oh wait, Rudi finished RB8, RB7, and RB9 the next 3 years.

Kevan Barlow. Okay, so there is one turd in the group. Barlow peaked at 201 attempts and a 5.1 ypc and RB17 finish at age 24, and then disappeared.

Terry Allen. Allen finished RB4 at age 24, getting 266 attempts, 4.5 ypc, and 15 total TD's. He blew out his knee in the off-season and missed all of the next year. He returned at age 26 to have a three year run of RB11. RB7, and RB1

Craig James. James posted 263 attempts and a 4.7 ypc in 1985 at age 24 (RB9), after having a 4.9 ypc the year before. He completely fell apart the next season, averaging 2.8 ypc.

Jamal Anderson. Anderson had 232 rushes at age 24, for 4.5 ypc and an RB10 finish. He would increase that to 290 rushes at age 25, still finishing at RB10, then finish at RB2 at age 26 with a then record 410 rushes.

Now I'll grant you that Barber checks in on the low end of rush attempts for this group, but none of these guys "proved" they could carry the ball 300 times by age 24. If we lower the threshold to say, 180 carries at age 24, and look at similar players based on ypc, touchdowns and receptions, we get more FB types like Sam Cunningham or John L. Williams (or Elvis Peacock), some speed platoon backs like Terry Metcalf and Mercury Morris, and Herschel Walker, among some we might not recognize.

I guess my point is that there are plenty of examples of guys who were productive in more limited touches early in their careers and hadn't proven they could be a feature back who were top 5 backs between ages 25-27, enough to certainly justify those that believe Barber is the next. I'm going to get really out there on this statement: Backs who are productive at age 24 tend to stay productive and tend to get more opportunities to be productive over the next few years.

 

[Tanner9919]

risk. he's never had more than 200'ish carries. never rushed for over 1000 yards in a season.you're projecting him out, which is risky. sure, there's a good chance he'll do well. but it helps to see it once before crowning him.

people said the same thing about Lamont Jordan when he signed with Oakland..Priest Holmes had only one season with 200+ carries before going to KC..Ahman Green never had more than 35 carries in a season while in Seattle..how'd he turn out in GB?

 

[David Yudkin]

I agree with those that generally say that TD-heavy fantasy production is less likely to repeat itself. But here's the thing--Barber isn't just a TD vulture. He has averaged 4.8 ypc and is involved in the passing game, so while we might normally expect a decline, his non-td stats portend a guy that should get greater opportunity going forward.

I know Yudkin says he hasn't gotten the carries so far, so we have no evidence that he will in the future. Here are some guys that had similar (though usually not as good) TD production, above average ypc (4.4 or better) and similar reception totals, and didn't cross 200 rush attempts til age 24, like Barber:

Neal Anderson: He had 164 rush attempts his first two years while playing behind Payton. At age 24, he had 249 rushes, 4.4 ypc, 12 TD's, and 39 receptions. He finished as RB3, RB3, and RB7 at ages 25-27 respectively, never having more than 274 rush attempts or 324 total touches in any one season.

Greg Pruitt: Pruitt had 189 total rush attempts in his first two seasons in the league, and made the pro bowl as a returner in both. He finished RB7 with 210 rush attempts (4.9 ypc) at age 24, and would finish RB10 and RB5 the next two seasons, primarily due to low TD numbers (9 total for next two seasons), because his ypc and receiving numbers were great.

Wilbert Montgomery Montgomery finished as RB5 at age 24, his first season with 200+ carries, with 259 and a 4.7 ypc. He would finish RB3, RB11 (4 games missed), RB6, and RB6 over the next 4 years.

Wendell Tyler. Tyler had 75 total carries his first two years in the league. At age 24 in 1979, he had 218 rushes, 5.1 ypc, and 10 total TD's for an RB12 finish. He blew out his knee early the next season. He returned at age 26-27 to finish as RB5 and RB2.

Franco Harris. Harris had 188 rushes each of his first two seasons, and 208 at age 24, with a 4.8 ypc. His carries increased to 262 the next season, and he finished RB4, RB6, and RB7 over the next 3 years.

Rudi Johnson. Rudi rarely played his first 2 seasons, then had 215 attempts, a 4.5 ypc and 9 TD's in 2003 at age 24. The team traded away Corey Dillon and drafted a far more talented back than Rudi, Chris Perry, in the second half of the first round the next year. Perry replaced Johnson as the starter by year's end. Oh wait, Rudi finished RB8, RB7, and RB9 the next 3 years.

Kevan Barlow. Okay, so there is one turd in the group. Barlow peaked at 201 attempts and a 5.1 ypc and RB17 finish at age 24, and then disappeared.

Terry Allen. Allen finished RB4 at age 24, getting 266 attempts, 4.5 ypc, and 15 total TD's. He blew out his knee in the off-season and missed all of the next year. He returned at age 26 to have a three year run of RB11. RB7, and RB1

Craig James. James posted 263 attempts and a 4.7 ypc in 1985 at age 24 (RB9), after having a 4.9 ypc the year before. He completely fell apart the next season, averaging 2.8 ypc.

Jamal Anderson. Anderson had 232 rushes at age 24, for 4.5 ypc and an RB10 finish. He would increase that to 290 rushes at age 25, still finishing at RB10, then finish at RB2 at age 26 with a then record 410 rushes.

Now I'll grant you that Barber checks in on the low end of rush attempts for this group, but none of these guys "proved" they could carry the ball 300 times by age 24. If we lower the threshold to say, 180 carries at age 24, and look at similar players based on ypc, touchdowns and receptions, we get more FB types like Sam Cunningham or John L. Williams (or Elvis Peacock), some speed platoon backs like Terry Metcalf and Mercury Morris, and Herschel Walker, among some we might not recognize.

I guess my point is that there are plenty of examples of guys who were productive in more limited touches early in their careers and hadn't proven they could be a feature back who were top 5 backs between ages 25-27, enough to certainly justify those that believe Barber is the next. I'm going to get really out there on this statement: Backs who are productive at age 24 tend to stay productive and tend to get more opportunities to be productive over the next few years.

To clarify for some people, IMO Barber will need to increase his workload to end up ranking in the Top 5 (or thereabouts) for where people are currently drafting him. I have seen him go thta high this year, so it's not out of the question that he's in that strata in some people's eyes.While it's great that you did some research (which I always encourage people to do), but the game is so different in 2008 vs some of the guys listed from the 70s that those guys really don't seem as relevant).

Let's run the numbers a different way. In most seasons, the cutoff for the Top 5 is usually around 250 points (last year being a notable exception).

Since the league merger in 1970, there have been 123 times where a RB has hit 250 fantasy points. Only 3 times did the RB have fewer than 250 carries:

Charlie Garner 182

Roger Craig 214

Brian Westbrook 240

And all those guys could a zillion passes.

The average was 327 carries. Not saying it can't happen (rank Top 5 with under 250 carries), only that it's rare.

The next question, at least in my opinion, is who else do you have to pick from at the slot you would take MBIII? And how much risk do the other guys have? THat early in a draft I would probably pass on him, but to each his own . . .

 

[fantasyplayer]

Previously I asked why FWP takes such a hit in fantasy value due specifically to the drafting of Mendenhall, while Barber's ADP remains mid to late 1st despite the drafting of Jones/Choice.Not much in terms of answers.Now I will ask, how many of you doubt that Greg Jennings can repeat his TD totals on a similar number of receptions he recorded in 07? How is his situation any different than Barber's? Both display a statistically unlikely propensity to score TD's given the number of opportunities they receive. Yet Jennings is greeted with a healthy dose of skepticism, while Barber remains top tier.Barber is an extremely talented back on a great offense, but he has the same questions other talented players have who are falling much further than he is.He is a risk laden high upside pick in the 1st round.

As part of a committee, Barber out produced Parker last season when Parker was the primary guy. With the loss of Julius, the addition of Felix and Barber becoming the starter, Barber's touches should increase slightly. With the addition of Mendenhall, Parker's touches should decrease. I think that is your answer.

 

[Tau837]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):

2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT

2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT

2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPT

How many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.

For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

Nice try, but that's not a comparison of like elements.You compare LT's career numbers to MB3's yearly production. Apples and oranges.

How about MB3's career numbers? 474 points in 562 touches = 0.84 FPPT

Again, not trying to make the comparison personally, but your argument was flawed on this point and misleading.

Perhaps the comparison was flawed in how I presented it, but the conclusions aren't. I said I don't think Barber is in Tomlinson's class, and you have just shown that Barber's career FPPT to date is higher than Tomlinson's... which supports my point that I think it will drop.My more general point was obviously in reference to your comment that you'd be happy with his numbers from last year, unconcerned about his touches because he gets such "healthy" production per touch. I don't believe Barber is likely to repeat those numbers, because I think his FPPT will drop, and I don't think his touches will go up enough to offset that.

The comparison was flawed, as was your conclusions.Again, I really don't care if a player takes 3 touches or 30 to amass fantasy points - just that they are there at the end of the day.

MB3 has shown that he puts up numbers, period. I never said anything about his healthy production PER TOUCH - just his production.

Riddle me this - if he puts up the same exact fantasy points this year on 50 more touches, does your fantasy team do better or worse?

When you said all the detractors "bang the drum of touches" and you'd be happy with his production last year on 248 touches, I interpreted that you were dismissing all the concerns that his touches would remain somewhat limited (for a top RB), since his production on 248 touches last year was so good. Is that not what you were saying?It's a different argument if you are suggesting that he will get the same totals, but on 300 touches. Obviously the same total production on more touches is the same value fantasy-wise. Did you not read my post, where I said clearly that I don't expect any more than a marginal increase in touches, meaning a dropoff in production per touch will mean a dropoff overall? I bolded the statements above, since you must have missed (or ignored) them previously.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

All the detractors here bang the drum of touches and "projections beyond 250 touches".

Well, I for one would be happy with MB3's numbers from last season on 248 touches last year.

I haven't done the math on this one, but he must have had a very healthy "fantasy point per touch" stat line.

I actually view his FPPT production over the past couple of seasons as a red flag. IMO he will likely be less productive per touch going forward, so he will need more touches to maintain or exceed past fantasy production. But I don't think he will get anything more than a marginal increase in touches, so I see him dropping off.Barber's FPPT per year (FBG scoring):

2005 - 95 fantasy points on 156 touches = 0.61 FPPT

2006 - 181 fantasy points on 158 touches = 1.15 FPPT

2007 - 198 fantasy points on 248 touches = 0.80 FPPT

How many people last offseason would have expected his fantasy points per touch to drop 30% while he got 57% more touches? I'm sure it is possible to search last offseason's posts and find plenty of people extrapolating his 2006 performance up to a full workload.

For comparison purposes, LT's career FPPT is 0.79 FPPT (2219 fantasy points in 2823 touches)... and 0.77 FPPT for rushing and receiving only (i.e., excluding his passing). Sorry, I just don't see Barber as being in Tomlinson's class. I think he is overrated by many, and I would avoid him at his current ADP (RB7, 8th overall).

Nice try, but that's not a comparison of like elements.You compare LT's career numbers to MB3's yearly production. Apples and oranges.

How about MB3's career numbers? 474 points in 562 touches = 0.84 FPPT

Again, not trying to make the comparison personally, but your argument was flawed on this point and misleading.

Perhaps the comparison was flawed in how I presented it, but the conclusions aren't. I said I don't think Barber is in Tomlinson's class, and you have just shown that Barber's career FPPT to date is higher than Tomlinson's... which supports my point that I think it will drop.My more general point was obviously in reference to your comment that you'd be happy with his numbers from last year, unconcerned about his touches because he gets such "healthy" production per touch. I don't believe Barber is likely to repeat those numbers, because I think his FPPT will drop, and I don't think his touches will go up enough to offset that.

The comparison was flawed, as was your conclusions.Again, I really don't care if a player takes 3 touches or 30 to amass fantasy points - just that they are there at the end of the day.

MB3 has shown that he puts up numbers, period. I never said anything about his healthy production PER TOUCH - just his production.

Riddle me this - if he puts up the same exact fantasy points this year on 50 more touches, does your fantasy team do better or worse?

When you said all the detractors "bang the drum of touches" and you'd be happy with his production last year on 248 touches, I interpreted that you were dismissing all the concerns that his touches would remain somewhat limited (for a top RB), since his production on 248 touches last year was so good. Is that not what you were saying?It's a different argument if you are suggesting that he will get the same totals, but on 300 touches. Obviously the same total production on more touches is the same value fantasy-wise. Did you not read my post, where I said clearly that I don't expect any more than a marginal increase in touches, meaning a dropoff in production per touch will mean a dropoff overall? I bolded the statements above, since you must have missed (or ignored) them previously.

I didn't ignore your post, and it wasn't clear.This isn't really productive any longer - I think MB3 is a Top RB and arguing tiers or spots isn't really worthwhile. I agree that most of his risk is downside with not much upside at his current draft spot, but there's no question in my mind that he's a first round selection. Detractors don't agree, and that's where we are.

We have to agree to disagree and see how it plays out.

 

[JKL]

I agree with those that generally say that TD-heavy fantasy production is less likely to repeat itself. But here's the thing--Barber isn't just a TD vulture. He has averaged 4.8 ypc and is involved in the passing game, so while we might normally expect a decline, his non-td stats portend a guy that should get greater opportunity going forward.

I know Yudkin says he hasn't gotten the carries so far, so we have no evidence that he will in the future. Here are some guys that had similar (though usually not as good) TD production, above average ypc (4.4 or better) and similar reception totals, and didn't cross 200 rush attempts til age 24, like Barber:

Neal Anderson: He had 164 rush attempts his first two years while playing behind Payton. At age 24, he had 249 rushes, 4.4 ypc, 12 TD's, and 39 receptions. He finished as RB3, RB3, and RB7 at ages 25-27 respectively, never having more than 274 rush attempts or 324 total touches in any one season.

Greg Pruitt: Pruitt had 189 total rush attempts in his first two seasons in the league, and made the pro bowl as a returner in both. He finished RB7 with 210 rush attempts (4.9 ypc) at age 24, and would finish RB10 and RB5 the next two seasons, primarily due to low TD numbers (9 total for next two seasons), because his ypc and receiving numbers were great.

Wilbert Montgomery Montgomery finished as RB5 at age 24, his first season with 200+ carries, with 259 and a 4.7 ypc. He would finish RB3, RB11 (4 games missed), RB6, and RB6 over the next 4 years.

Wendell Tyler. Tyler had 75 total carries his first two years in the league. At age 24 in 1979, he had 218 rushes, 5.1 ypc, and 10 total TD's for an RB12 finish. He blew out his knee early the next season. He returned at age 26-27 to finish as RB5 and RB2.

Franco Harris. Harris had 188 rushes each of his first two seasons, and 208 at age 24, with a 4.8 ypc. His carries increased to 262 the next season, and he finished RB4, RB6, and RB7 over the next 3 years.

Rudi Johnson. Rudi rarely played his first 2 seasons, then had 215 attempts, a 4.5 ypc and 9 TD's in 2003 at age 24. The team traded away Corey Dillon and drafted a far more talented back than Rudi, Chris Perry, in the second half of the first round the next year. Perry replaced Johnson as the starter by year's end. Oh wait, Rudi finished RB8, RB7, and RB9 the next 3 years.

Kevan Barlow. Okay, so there is one turd in the group. Barlow peaked at 201 attempts and a 5.1 ypc and RB17 finish at age 24, and then disappeared.

Terry Allen. Allen finished RB4 at age 24, getting 266 attempts, 4.5 ypc, and 15 total TD's. He blew out his knee in the off-season and missed all of the next year. He returned at age 26 to have a three year run of RB11. RB7, and RB1

Craig James. James posted 263 attempts and a 4.7 ypc in 1985 at age 24 (RB9), after having a 4.9 ypc the year before. He completely fell apart the next season, averaging 2.8 ypc.

Jamal Anderson. Anderson had 232 rushes at age 24, for 4.5 ypc and an RB10 finish. He would increase that to 290 rushes at age 25, still finishing at RB10, then finish at RB2 at age 26 with a then record 410 rushes.

Now I'll grant you that Barber checks in on the low end of rush attempts for this group, but none of these guys "proved" they could carry the ball 300 times by age 24. If we lower the threshold to say, 180 carries at age 24, and look at similar players based on ypc, touchdowns and receptions, we get more FB types like Sam Cunningham or John L. Williams (or Elvis Peacock), some speed platoon backs like Terry Metcalf and Mercury Morris, and Herschel Walker, among some we might not recognize.

I guess my point is that there are plenty of examples of guys who were productive in more limited touches early in their careers and hadn't proven they could be a feature back who were top 5 backs between ages 25-27, enough to certainly justify those that believe Barber is the next. I'm going to get really out there on this statement: Backs who are productive at age 24 tend to stay productive and tend to get more opportunities to be productive over the next few years.

To clarify for some people, IMO Barber will need to increase his workload to end up ranking in the Top 5 (or thereabouts) for where people are currently drafting him. I have seen him go thta high this year, so it's not out of the question that he's in that strata in some people's eyes.While it's great that you did some research (which I always encourage people to do), but the game is so different in 2008 vs some of the guys listed from the 70s that those guys really don't seem as relevant).

Let's run the numbers a different way. In most seasons, the cutoff for the Top 5 is usually around 250 points (last year being a notable exception).

Since the league merger in 1970, there have been 123 times where a RB has hit 250 fantasy points. Only 3 times did the RB have fewer than 250 carries:

Charlie Garner 182

Roger Craig 214

Brian Westbrook 240

And all those guys could a zillion passes.

The average was 327 carries. Not saying it can't happen (rank Top 5 with under 250 carries), only that it's rare.

The next question, at least in my opinion, is who else do you have to pick from at the slot you would take MBIII? And how much risk do the other guys have? THat early in a draft I would probably pass on him, but to each his own . . .

Okay, I absolutely agree with the first bolded part. He will need to increase his touches. I just dont think it has to be to 300 rush attempts to be Top 5. My point with those examples was to show that generally, backs who were productive on less than 300 carries at age 24, most like Barber in the 200-250 range, saw their touches increase, maintained their productivity, and were good options at ages 25-27. Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

Now, as you point out, it has historically taken 250 fantasy points to finish top 5, and on average about 327 rushes. But who should we expect to handily cross that mark this year? I think part of the reason for the drop in rush totals last year is the dearth of healthy productive backs age 25-27 over the last two seasons, so that guys either younger or older carried the torch.

There have been 111 running back seasons with 325 rush attempts since 1978. 62 of them were by a running back age 24-27, with only 16 by a younger back, and 23 by a back 28 or older. Up it to 350 carries, and you get 52 total seasons, of which almost 70% (36) were turned in by backs age 24-27.

The ADP leader board this year is populated by 29 year old backs and a 23 year old. I dont expect LT or Westbrook to increase their touches this year over last. I do expect ADP to increase his, but not significantly over 320 this year. Who are the guys that are going to be getting 350 rushing attempts in 2008? Maybe Jackson, Gore or Addai based on age, but in the case of the first two, they play on teams and offenses that are more questionable, and if you are going to get over 350, youre going to need a good defense and an at least solid passing offense in most cases to keep giving you first downs.

Basically, I dont expect the leaderboard in total fantasy points to rebound to 1999-2005 levels in 2008 (it may in a few years).

 

[Brutis]

This is the last year you are going to get this guy at this price. Right now he doesnt come cheap as he is a late 1st round pick, next year he will be top 5

 

[Tau837]

Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

IMO the flaw in your projections is bolded. You are projecting Dallas to have 480 rushing attempts by its RBs.Last year, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Pittsburgh) had 452. Only 7 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 382. In 2006, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Chicago) had 472. Only 5 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 428.

In 2005, Dallas was #2 in the league with 479. Of course, they had Bledsoe at QB and Glenn and Keyshawn at WR, so the offense was completely different. IMO the addition of Owens and moving to Romo at QB obviously changed the dynamic of the offense. I can certainly see Dallas with more RB carries than last season, but I think it will be a stretch to reach their 2006 total of 428, and I see no chance of them being close to 480.

I could see it breaking down like this:

220 carries for Barber

140 carries for Jones

60 carries for others

420 total RB carries

I could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

 

[switz]

Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

IMO the flaw in your projections is bolded. You are projecting Dallas to have 480 rushing attempts by its RBs.Last year, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Pittsburgh) had 452. Only 7 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 382. In 2006, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Chicago) had 472. Only 5 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 428.

In 2005, Dallas was #2 in the league with 479. Of course, they had Bledsoe at QB and Glenn and Keyshawn at WR, so the offense was completely different. IMO the addition of Owens and moving to Romo at QB obviously changed the dynamic of the offense. I can certainly see Dallas with more RB carries than last season, but I think it will be a stretch to reach their 2006 total of 428, and I see no chance of them being close to 480.

I could see it breaking down like this:

220 carries for Barber

140 carries for Jones

60 carries for others

420 total RB carries

I could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

 

[David Yudkin]

I agree with those that generally say that TD-heavy fantasy production is less likely to repeat itself. But here's the thing--Barber isn't just a TD vulture. He has averaged 4.8 ypc and is involved in the passing game, so while we might normally expect a decline, his non-td stats portend a guy that should get greater opportunity going forward.

I know Yudkin says he hasn't gotten the carries so far, so we have no evidence that he will in the future. Here are some guys that had similar (though usually not as good) TD production, above average ypc (4.4 or better) and similar reception totals, and didn't cross 200 rush attempts til age 24, like Barber:

Neal Anderson: He had 164 rush attempts his first two years while playing behind Payton. At age 24, he had 249 rushes, 4.4 ypc, 12 TD's, and 39 receptions. He finished as RB3, RB3, and RB7 at ages 25-27 respectively, never having more than 274 rush attempts or 324 total touches in any one season.

Greg Pruitt: Pruitt had 189 total rush attempts in his first two seasons in the league, and made the pro bowl as a returner in both. He finished RB7 with 210 rush attempts (4.9 ypc) at age 24, and would finish RB10 and RB5 the next two seasons, primarily due to low TD numbers (9 total for next two seasons), because his ypc and receiving numbers were great.

Wilbert Montgomery Montgomery finished as RB5 at age 24, his first season with 200+ carries, with 259 and a 4.7 ypc. He would finish RB3, RB11 (4 games missed), RB6, and RB6 over the next 4 years.

Wendell Tyler. Tyler had 75 total carries his first two years in the league. At age 24 in 1979, he had 218 rushes, 5.1 ypc, and 10 total TD's for an RB12 finish. He blew out his knee early the next season. He returned at age 26-27 to finish as RB5 and RB2.

Franco Harris. Harris had 188 rushes each of his first two seasons, and 208 at age 24, with a 4.8 ypc. His carries increased to 262 the next season, and he finished RB4, RB6, and RB7 over the next 3 years.

Rudi Johnson. Rudi rarely played his first 2 seasons, then had 215 attempts, a 4.5 ypc and 9 TD's in 2003 at age 24. The team traded away Corey Dillon and drafted a far more talented back than Rudi, Chris Perry, in the second half of the first round the next year. Perry replaced Johnson as the starter by year's end. Oh wait, Rudi finished RB8, RB7, and RB9 the next 3 years.

Kevan Barlow. Okay, so there is one turd in the group. Barlow peaked at 201 attempts and a 5.1 ypc and RB17 finish at age 24, and then disappeared.

Terry Allen. Allen finished RB4 at age 24, getting 266 attempts, 4.5 ypc, and 15 total TD's. He blew out his knee in the off-season and missed all of the next year. He returned at age 26 to have a three year run of RB11. RB7, and RB1

Craig James. James posted 263 attempts and a 4.7 ypc in 1985 at age 24 (RB9), after having a 4.9 ypc the year before. He completely fell apart the next season, averaging 2.8 ypc.

Jamal Anderson. Anderson had 232 rushes at age 24, for 4.5 ypc and an RB10 finish. He would increase that to 290 rushes at age 25, still finishing at RB10, then finish at RB2 at age 26 with a then record 410 rushes.

Now I'll grant you that Barber checks in on the low end of rush attempts for this group, but none of these guys "proved" they could carry the ball 300 times by age 24. If we lower the threshold to say, 180 carries at age 24, and look at similar players based on ypc, touchdowns and receptions, we get more FB types like Sam Cunningham or John L. Williams (or Elvis Peacock), some speed platoon backs like Terry Metcalf and Mercury Morris, and Herschel Walker, among some we might not recognize.

I guess my point is that there are plenty of examples of guys who were productive in more limited touches early in their careers and hadn't proven they could be a feature back who were top 5 backs between ages 25-27, enough to certainly justify those that believe Barber is the next. I'm going to get really out there on this statement: Backs who are productive at age 24 tend to stay productive and tend to get more opportunities to be productive over the next few years.

To clarify for some people, IMO Barber will need to increase his workload to end up ranking in the Top 5 (or thereabouts) for where people are currently drafting him. I have seen him go thta high this year, so it's not out of the question that he's in that strata in some people's eyes.While it's great that you did some research (which I always encourage people to do), but the game is so different in 2008 vs some of the guys listed from the 70s that those guys really don't seem as relevant).

Let's run the numbers a different way. In most seasons, the cutoff for the Top 5 is usually around 250 points (last year being a notable exception).

Since the league merger in 1970, there have been 123 times where a RB has hit 250 fantasy points. Only 3 times did the RB have fewer than 250 carries:

Charlie Garner 182

Roger Craig 214

Brian Westbrook 240

And all those guys could a zillion passes.

The average was 327 carries. Not saying it can't happen (rank Top 5 with under 250 carries), only that it's rare.

The next question, at least in my opinion, is who else do you have to pick from at the slot you would take MBIII? And how much risk do the other guys have? THat early in a draft I would probably pass on him, but to each his own . . .

Okay, I absolutely agree with the first bolded part. He will need to increase his touches. I just dont think it has to be to 300 rush attempts to be Top 5. My point with those examples was to show that generally, backs who were productive on less than 300 carries at age 24, most like Barber in the 200-250 range, saw their touches increase, maintained their productivity, and were good options at ages 25-27. Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

Now, as you point out, it has historically taken 250 fantasy points to finish top 5, and on average about 327 rushes. But who should we expect to handily cross that mark this year? I think part of the reason for the drop in rush totals last year is the dearth of healthy productive backs age 25-27 over the last two seasons, so that guys either younger or older carried the torch.

There have been 111 running back seasons with 325 rush attempts since 1978. 62 of them were by a running back age 24-27, with only 16 by a younger back, and 23 by a back 28 or older. Up it to 350 carries, and you get 52 total seasons, of which almost 70% (36) were turned in by backs age 24-27.

The ADP leader board this year is populated by 29 year old backs and a 23 year old. I dont expect LT or Westbrook to increase their touches this year over last. I do expect ADP to increase his, but not significantly over 320 this year. Who are the guys that are going to be getting 350 rushing attempts in 2008? Maybe Jackson, Gore or Addai based on age, but in the case of the first two, they play on teams and offenses that are more questionable, and if you are going to get over 350, youre going to need a good defense and an at least solid passing offense in most cases to keep giving you first downs.

Basically, I dont expect the leaderboard in total fantasy points to rebound to 1999-2005 levels in 2008 (it may in a few years).

You have a lot in here, and I won't have time to tackle everything, but . . .DAL saw their # of RB carries dip by 40 from 06 to 07 while they passed 20 more times. Given the success that Romo has had, that may come down a smidge but I don't think we will see a committment to the run as much as with the Tuna. Logic would dictate that the passing totals should regress, but that may not mean that rushing production would go up.

Last year was a very off year for RBs, as a bunch of backs got hurt or had issues . . . S-Jax, Brown, SA, LJohnson, Rudi, Henry, Caddy, Green, etc. I'm not saying that in any year that won't happen, but IMO there were more top of the class guys dinged than normal.

In the past 10 seasons, there have been 93 times a RB hit 300 carries . . . 21 by guys 29 or older. There are a few more guys in the 29+ bracket that I can spot (LT, Westbrook, Lewis, Edge, Rudi, LJohnson), but I wouldn't include Westy in the 300+ workorse back category.

I'm not yet convinced that there are a ton more teams adapting a RBBC or 2 back system, only that with a run of injuries it seemed like that last season.

The other thing to conside is that if the number of guys scoing big points with big carries at RB gets diluted, even getting a RB that could rank 6th may not be a great value move. That was a bit of my point in discussing MJD and MBIII in some of these threads. Sure, they may rank anywhere in a range of 10 RBs, but with the number of elite backs dwindling (in theory), unless they BECAME one of those heavy workload backs they may be a bit disappointing.

So I guess each person would have to analyze if a player drafted 5th or 6th overall ranked as a RB8 or RB10 if that would be considered a good ROI or not.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

You have to earn your way into the top tier by proving yourself to be a top back at least one season. Guys like LT, AD, Westbrook, and Steven Jackson have done that. Barber talented as he's been has not.

 

[The Ghost of Common]

 

[KellysHeroes]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=415924

Before the season started.. he was in many people's top 10, even top 3. But there will surely be some back peddling in this thread.

 

[gianmarco]

Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

IMO the flaw in your projections is bolded. You are projecting Dallas to have 480 rushing attempts by its RBs.Last year, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Pittsburgh) had 452. Only 7 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 382. In 2006, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Chicago) had 472. Only 5 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 428.

In 2005, Dallas was #2 in the league with 479. Of course, they had Bledsoe at QB and Glenn and Keyshawn at WR, so the offense was completely different. IMO the addition of Owens and moving to Romo at QB obviously changed the dynamic of the offense. I can certainly see Dallas with more RB carries than last season, but I think it will be a stretch to reach their 2006 total of 428, and I see no chance of them being close to 480.

I could see it breaking down like this:

220 carries for Barber

140 carries for Jones

60 carries for others

420 total RB carries

I could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

Dallas is currently 10th in the league in rushing attempts at 30/game, on pace for 480 for the year. They have had 90 running attempts and 93 passing attempts for a 50/50 split. You still stand by this statement as it's early?

Barber is on the border of a top-10 back. Not any higher than that. And the people drafting him 4-6 are going to regret it by the end of the year.

You still don't think he's not any higher than a top 10 back? He's currently on pace for 330 carries/year. Still think he's going to lose the starting job and majority of the carries like you predicted all off season?

 

[Kiddnets]

I'll be honest - loved Barber but was scared of his reckless running style leaving him prone to injury and having felix there to take carries - so I went for S Jax - I would LOVE to have that one back!

 

[switz]

I could see it breaking down like this:220 carries for Barber140 carries for Jones60 carries for others420 total RB carriesI could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

:whoosh: I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

Dallas is currently 10th in the league in rushing attempts at 30/game, on pace for 480 for the year. They have had 90 running attempts and 93 passing attempts for a 50/50 split. You still stand by this statement as it's early?

It is early, but I was obviously wrong about how much the Cowboys would run the ball. Funny thing is I had estimated 15-18 carries by Barber pretty consistently, and here after the first game in which he has over that number, someone bumps it. But no one wanted to talk about anything when he got injured in the first game, and was totally shut down in the first half of the second game. Let's see if he continues getting 20+ carries, and not use one game as the "evidence" about anything. Last night was Barber's first 100 yard rushing game of the season, and Romo really struggled. If Romo is playing well - do you believe Barber would have had that many carries? Just curious what your thoughts are, given in the first two games he wasn't given that many.

Barber is on the border of a top-10 back. Not any higher than that. And the people drafting him 4-6 are going to regret it by the end of the year.

You still don't think he's not any higher than a top 10 back? He's currently on pace for 330 carries/year. Still think he's going to lose the starting job and majority of the carries like you predicted all off season?

Since he signed the contract I don't believe I ever predicted he'd lose the starting role. Prior to him signing the contract, I said that by the end of the season, he may lose the job, but that was with him being an FA next year.I don't think I ever said another RB would take the majority of the carries - rather touches. And to be honest, I'm absolutely shocked by how much they've used Barber in the passing game. I was consistent in my thinking that his receptions would go down, and I think he's on pace for even more this year. Pretty amazing.I still believe by end of the season, Felix will be cutting into his touches more than most people around here think. Just look at how effective Felix was last night for reason why they need to play him more, and they will. Just maybe not as much as I had expected.In FBG scoring, Barber currently sits at #2 after 3 weeks. I still don't think he finishes top-4 to 6. But he IS better than I thought, and they are playing him more than I thought they would.

 

[Kuz]

I could see it breaking down like this:220 carries for Barber140 carries for Jones60 carries for others420 total RB carriesI could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

Dallas is currently 10th in the league in rushing attempts at 30/game, on pace for 480 for the year. They have had 90 running attempts and 93 passing attempts for a 50/50 split. You still stand by this statement as it's early?

It is early, but I was obviously wrong about how much the Cowboys would run the ball. Funny thing is I had estimated 15-18 carries by Barber pretty consistently, and here after the first game in which he has over that number, someone bumps it. But no one wanted to talk about anything when he got injured in the first game, and was totally shut down in the first half of the second game. Let's see if he continues getting 20+ carries, and not use one game as the "evidence" about anything. Last night was Barber's first 100 yard rushing game of the season, and Romo really struggled. If Romo is playing well - do you believe Barber would have had that many carries? Just curious what your thoughts are, given in the first two games he wasn't given that many.

Barber is on the border of a top-10 back. Not any higher than that. And the people drafting him 4-6 are going to regret it by the end of the year.

You still don't think he's not any higher than a top 10 back? He's currently on pace for 330 carries/year. Still think he's going to lose the starting job and majority of the carries like you predicted all off season?

Since he signed the contract I don't believe I ever predicted he'd lose the starting role. Prior to him signing the contract, I said that by the end of the season, he may lose the job, but that was with him being an FA next year.I don't think I ever said another RB would take the majority of the carries - rather touches. And to be honest, I'm absolutely shocked by how much they've used Barber in the passing game. I was consistent in my thinking that his receptions would go down, and I think he's on pace for even more this year. Pretty amazing.I still believe by end of the season, Felix will be cutting into his touches more than most people around here think. Just look at how effective Felix was last night for reason why they need to play him more, and they will. Just maybe not as much as I had expected.In FBG scoring, Barber currently sits at #2 after 3 weeks. I still don't think he finishes top-4 to 6. But he IS better than I thought, and they are playing him more than I thought they would.

Man.. not 100% certain how many more carries/touches Felix will get but. .man this offense looks great. Felix has looked awesome on the limited touches he has had & I feel if Baber got hurt, the Cowboys wouldn't miss a beat.. They sure look to be the team to beat this year..

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I could see it breaking down like this:220 carries for Barber140 carries for Jones60 carries for others420 total RB carriesI could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

Dallas is currently 10th in the league in rushing attempts at 30/game, on pace for 480 for the year. They have had 90 running attempts and 93 passing attempts for a 50/50 split. You still stand by this statement as it's early?

It is early, but I was obviously wrong about how much the Cowboys would run the ball. Funny thing is I had estimated 15-18 carries by Barber pretty consistently, and here after the first game in which he has over that number, someone bumps it. But no one wanted to talk about anything when he got injured in the first game, and was totally shut down in the first half of the second game. Let's see if he continues getting 20+ carries, and not use one game as the "evidence" about anything. Last night was Barber's first 100 yard rushing game of the season, and Romo really struggled. If Romo is playing well - do you believe Barber would have had that many carries? Just curious what your thoughts are, given in the first two games he wasn't given that many.

Barber is on the border of a top-10 back. Not any higher than that. And the people drafting him 4-6 are going to regret it by the end of the year.

You still don't think he's not any higher than a top 10 back? He's currently on pace for 330 carries/year. Still think he's going to lose the starting job and majority of the carries like you predicted all off season?

Since he signed the contract I don't believe I ever predicted he'd lose the starting role. Prior to him signing the contract, I said that by the end of the season, he may lose the job, but that was with him being an FA next year.I don't think I ever said another RB would take the majority of the carries - rather touches. And to be honest, I'm absolutely shocked by how much they've used Barber in the passing game. I was consistent in my thinking that his receptions would go down, and I think he's on pace for even more this year. Pretty amazing.I still believe by end of the season, Felix will be cutting into his touches more than most people around here think. Just look at how effective Felix was last night for reason why they need to play him more, and they will. Just maybe not as much as I had expected.In FBG scoring, Barber currently sits at #2 after 3 weeks. I still don't think he finishes top-4 to 6. But he IS better than I thought, and they are playing him more than I thought they would.

In watching them last night I saw what almost looked like a mirror image of the Denver backfield circa 2005. Barber is Mike Anderson, the punishing guy who the coaching staff trusts completely and gets almost all the looks at the goal line. Felix is Tatum Bell, the scary change of pace guy that's capable of the home run every time he touches the ball. 412 carries might be a bit much because, as Switz pointed out, this is a more pass oriented team than most....including the 2005 Broncos. But Felix may start to get put in more often like Tatum was with the success he's had and it could end up close to a 60-40 split later in the year. Jason Garrett is one hell of a OL and he'll make a nice HC for the Cowboys in 2009. The guy knows how to use all of his weapons.ETA: One difference between Barber/Felix and the 2005 Denver backfield, both Barber and Felix are excellent receivers making them even more dangerous.

 

[Archie Bunker]

I can't get over the fact that Barber is being mentioned as a late first rounder / early second round guy.All the signs are there for this guy to have a huge season. He has performed well whenever he has had the opportunity. He has almost zero competition for his job, he has the money incentive to make things happen. He is on arguably the Super Bowl favorite team in the NFC in a great opened-up offense.I would pick this guy in the top 5 without blinking.I've read the spotlight and the negative points are not even all that negative. He doesn't have the red flags that the other top guys have. He is at a prime age.I honestly think NEXT season - we will be talking about taking Barber in the top 3 for RBs.This is a must-target in ALL leagues IMO.Discuss or talk me off of the ledge here.

It must be because his last name is Barber. It took Tiki years before he was finally considered top tier, and even then it was borderline.

 

[Tau837]

Regression to the mean works not only for a particular player, but for a team. Dallas was heavily pass skewed last year, particularly for a team that won 13 games, and Romo threw 37 td's to 14 rushing. The overall rushing td's and touches actually regressed last year. I could see a rebound, as Felix Jones actually increases the rushing pie overall. I project 30 RB rushes per game, with a breakdown of around 18 for Barber, 9 for Jones, and 3 for the rest (FB, Choice). Coming off that a bit, 270 attempts is not unreasonable nor an excessive for someone who has proven to be productive. I could see his td's going up just as easily as going down, so I call it even at 12. Throw in about 300 yards receiving and a 4.5 ypc, and that's close to 230 fantasy points for a "non-best case" projection.

IMO the flaw in your projections is bolded. You are projecting Dallas to have 480 rushing attempts by its RBs.Last year, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Pittsburgh) had 452. Only 7 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 382. In 2006, the team with the most RB rushing attempts (Chicago) had 472. Only 5 teams had as many as 430. Dallas had 428.

In 2005, Dallas was #2 in the league with 479. Of course, they had Bledsoe at QB and Glenn and Keyshawn at WR, so the offense was completely different. IMO the addition of Owens and moving to Romo at QB obviously changed the dynamic of the offense. I can certainly see Dallas with more RB carries than last season, but I think it will be a stretch to reach their 2006 total of 428, and I see no chance of them being close to 480.

I could see it breaking down like this:

220 carries for Barber

140 carries for Jones

60 carries for others

420 total RB carries

I could see Barber with 220/990/9 rushing and 35/240/1 receiving... that would be 183 fantasy points, a marginal dropoff from last year of about 1 ppg. But if the collective RB performance improves to past levels, that will leave him outside of the top 10, and thus not worthy of his current ADP. For example, he had 181 fantasy points in 2006, and he was RB14.

I posted quite a while back about this whole scenario. A realistic projection of rush attempts for Dallas is less than 400. The only way that will change is if Owens or Romo miss extensive time. Dallas is a passing team now, not a running team.

Dallas is currently 10th in the league in rushing attempts at 30/game, on pace for 480 for the year. They have had 90 running attempts and 93 passing attempts for a 50/50 split. You still stand by this statement as it's early?

I know you didn't direct this to me, but I wanted to point out that Dallas is on pace for 453 RB rushing attempts. I projected 420. I do think they will probably tail off somewhat, so I still think 420 could turn out to be a good projection.Barber is certainly off to a great start relative to my expectations. However, part of my thinking in projecting him for fewer touches than many others is that his running style will wear on him over the course of the season given his running style, meaning they might reduce his workload later on to try to keep him fresh for the playoffs, and he could end up with some nagging injuries that result in fewer touches. We'll see.

 

[footballsavvy]

As a Barber owner, I kind of hope they give more carries to Felix. If Barber he gets hurt, his value is less than Ricky Williams...

If he gets 15-18 carries per game that leaves 10-12 for Felix. As long as they keep Baber in on the goal line (obviously they will), then he will still far exceed my expectations this season it seems.

Of course at this point Dallas looks unstoppable so I don't see them making any drastic changes to their overall gameplan.

 

[easy like sunday morning]

As a Barber owner, I kind of hope they give more carries to Felix. If Barber he gets hurt, his value is less than Ricky Williams...If he gets 15-18 carries per game that leaves 10-12 for Felix. As long as they keep Baber in on the goal line (obviously they will), then he will still far exceed my expectations this season it seems.Of course at this point Dallas looks unstoppable so I don't see them making any drastic changes to their overall gameplan.

As a fellow Barber owner, I couldn't agree more. I am ok with them getting Felix involved. This is a dominant O with plenty of balls to go around. I hope Barber doesn't get over 25 carries a game on average. He is reckless in his running style and they do need to keep him fresh. I do think Felix is a very talented player. However, what all of the Felix owners might not take into account enough is that Felix benefits from Barber being healthy. If Barber goes down and Felix gets the bulk of the carries teams will start to gameplan for him a lot more and that would change things in my opinion. Felix is best served to run back kicks and to get around 10-12 touches on O.If others are right and MB3 gets hurt we will see what Felix can do with a full time role. For now, I think MB3 and Felix compliment one and other perfectly.

 

[Kyzersosik]

Felix Jones looks very explosive when he gets a chance. But, there`s a HUGE difference between running sweeps, tosses and misdirection carries and having to bang it up the middle on 1`st down and getting the tough 4 and 5 yard carries. Can he do it, who knows? I`m sure Dallas would like to keep Barber at 18-20 carries and 3-5 catches a week, esp. later when the weather gets worse in Philly, NYG.wash etc., to keep him fresh. Dallas is planning for a 18-19 game season so 25 touches should be the Max for M B. Will be a fun season in big D. and looking forward to the NFC east showdowns. GO PATS

 

[Cawbird]

Is it just me, or does it look like Barber isn't as reckless this year as everyone keeps harping on. I have notcied quite a few times where he went down or out of bounds instead of just running the defender over. I'm not saying that he is avoiding contact at every opportunity, but I definitely see a difference in his running style this year.

 

[switz]

Felix Jones looks very explosive when he gets a chance. But, there's a HUGE difference between running sweeps, tosses and misdirection carries and having to bang it up the middle on 1st down and getting the tough 4 and 5 yard carries. Can he do it, who knows?

Did you watch the game Sunday night? Jones first carry Sunday was up the middle for 7 yards on first down. That's his only carry "up the middle", but...I'm not sure how you measure "inside" running... to me anything inside the tackles (off guard, or up the middle) is inside running...

Here are Jones carries in those situations:

1-10-CLE 11 (6:30) 28-F.Jones right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN

1-10-DAL 33 (4:36) 28-F.Jones right guard to CLE 49 for 18 yards (20-M.Adams)

1-6-CLE 6 (1:31) 28-F.Jones right guard to CLE 4 for 2 yards (98-R.Smith, 55-W.McGinest).

2-7-DAL 23 (9:30) 28-F.Jones left guard to DAL 24 for 1 yard (98-R.Smith, 99-C.Williams).

2-13-DAL 34 (5:59) 28-F.Jones right guard to CLE 44 for 22 yards (20-M.Adams).

1-10-CLE 44 (5:11) 28-F.Jones left guard to CLE 40 for 4 yards (92-S.Rogers, 52-D.Jackson).

2-6-CLE 40 (4:27) 28-F.Jones right guard to CLE 39 for 1 yard (54-A.Davis).

1-10-DAL 41 (5:26) 28-F.Jones up the middle to DAL 48 for 7 yards (50-A.Hawk, 96-M.Montgomery).

2-3-DAL 48 (4:56) 28-F.Jones right guard to 50 for 2 yards (96-M.Montgomery).

It's pretty hard to question if he can run inside. He obviously can, very well.

 

[switz]

Is it just me, or does it look like Barber isn't as reckless this year as everyone keeps harping on. I have notcied quite a few times where he went down or out of bounds instead of just running the defender over. I'm not saying that he is avoiding contact at every opportunity, but I definitely see a difference in his running style this year.

Yes, there is a notable difference in Barber this season, as far as contact goes. He's run out of bounds in a few situations that I've noticed. However, I've also seen far more often than in the ast, one tackler take him down. That may also indicate he's not fighting as hard. As long as he gets yards, that's good, it'll be good for the team, and good for his career.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Is it just me, or does it look like Barber isn't as reckless this year as everyone keeps harping on. I have notcied quite a few times where he went down or out of bounds instead of just running the defender over. I'm not saying that he is avoiding contact at every opportunity, but I definitely see a difference in his running style this year.

Yes, there is a notable difference in Barber this season, as far as contact goes. He's run out of bounds in a few situations that I've noticed. However, I've also seen far more often than in the ast, one tackler take him down. That may also indicate he's not fighting as hard. As long as he gets yards, that's good, it'll be good for the team, and good for his career.

I concur. He has been hitting the sideline. I'm pretty sure he has been requested/required to do this now that he's the main guy. Dallas wants to keep him around for the year.I can see what you're saying where he's not as aggressive as he was in the past on ALL carries. I'll bet he is saving some. However, watch him on goal line carries.....not taking any of those off any time soon.