Why Ryan Tannehill is a first-round prospect (1 Viewer)

[Matt Waldman]

My link

I've written about him before, but too many interesting things with his game not to do another analysis.

 

[finito]

Great read, thanks!

 

[Sabertooth]

I have the 5th pick in my start 2QB dynasty draft and I am leaning towards him right now.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Not a big fan of his but I did like the write up of him Matt. I'm standing by my opinion that a top 10 pick on him is way to high for a developmental qb.

 

[Sabertooth]

Not a big fan of his but I did like the write up of him Matt. I'm standing by my opinion that a top 10 pick on him is way to high for a developmental qb.

Aren't they all developmental though to an extent? I mean RG3 is a spread guy. So was Cam. So was Gabbert.

 

[domvin]

Matt, did you do any other games on Tannehill yet? The only time I have watched him was the game vs Texas. To be blunt, he looked dreadful. Only sample size I have. . . .

 

[Time Kibitzer]

I haven't watched Tannehill play at all, but just from looking at his stats he doesn't come across as a first round NFL prospect. Reading your article, you give some very good reasons as for why some people who focus on his stats may be underrating him, so my question to you is this: Why do you think his stats last season are underwhelming relative to most 1st round QBs? (although they don't seem to be considerably worse than Gabbert or Ponder from last season).

I calculated Tannehill's stats against the 6 teams he faced who are FBS teams who rank in the top 100 of 120 in total defensive yardage allowed (ranked as follows: Texas-14th, Arkansas-51st, Missouri-61st, Oklahoma-62nd, Kansas State-74th, Iowa State-99th):

163 completions, 290 attempts, 56.2% completions, 1640 passing yards (avg. of 273 per game, median of 255), Yards-per-attempt of 5.66, TD/INT ratio of 12/9.

Those numbers are pretty bad imo, particularly considering only Texas and Arkansas are by definition above average FBS defenses. He also seemed to have above average WRs to throw to in Fuller/Swope, and above average RBs on his team to keep defenses honest in Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael; so one would think he'd have more statistical success.

Perhaps he was just very unlucky? As that 30 yard pass to the TE in the endzone was very good but the TE apparently dropped it. So as someone who watched him, what's your opinion?

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

Not a big fan of his but I did like the write up of him Matt. I'm standing by my opinion that a top 10 pick on him is way to high for a developmental qb.

Aren't they all developmental though to an extent? I mean RG3 is a spread guy. So was Cam. So was Gabbert.

I just believe that if you're going to be spending a high first rounder on a QB, he should be reasonably "pro ready" and have played in something resembling a pro style attack for at least 2 years or more. I would have no problem with the Luck pick and although I was vocally against picking Newton that high a year ago, the way he demonstrated his dedication towards advancing his dropback skills following Auburn's season culminating in his excellent pro day, he was much less of a risk than I had initially considered him having only played the 1 year at Auburn in a Spread offense. Obviously every case is going to be unique and certainly Tannehill having played wr for 2 1/2 years before switching back to qb is about as unique as it gets for a prospect. I would just feel more than a bit uncomfortable picking a kid quite as high as it seems teams want to pick him given his overall inexperience playing the position.

 

[Matt Waldman]

I haven't watched Tannehill play at all, but just from looking at his stats he doesn't come across as a first round NFL prospect. Reading your article, you give some very good reasons as for why some people who focus on his stats may be underrating him, so my question to you is this: Why do you think his stats last season are underwhelming relative to most 1st round QBs? (although they don't seem to be considerably worse than Gabbert or Ponder from last season). I calculated Tannehill's stats against the 6 teams he faced who are FBS teams who rank in the top 100 of 120 in total defensive yardage allowed (ranked as follows: Texas-14th, Arkansas-51st, Missouri-61st, Oklahoma-62nd, Kansas State-74th, Iowa State-99th): 163 completions, 290 attempts, 56.2% completions, 1640 passing yards (avg. of 273 per game, median of 255), Yards-per-attempt of 5.66, TD/INT ratio of 12/9.Those numbers are pretty bad imo, particularly considering only Texas and Arkansas are by definition above average FBS defenses. He also seemed to have above average WRs to throw to in Fuller/Swope, and above average RBs on his team to keep defenses honest in Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael; so one would think he'd have more statistical success. Perhaps he was just very unlucky? As that 30 yard pass to the TE in the endzone was very good but the TE apparently dropped it. So as someone who watched him, what's your opinion?

While Tannehill has a reckless streak, my answer based on what I've watched is a lot of dropped passes, poor routes, turnovers not attributable to him if you really analyze what happened on the plays and as a result playing from behind and forced to take further chances and risky decisions. A quarterback is only as good as his supporting cast and I would have to say that his supporting cast is a lot better on paper than it was on the field. Tannehill has moments where he'll try to make a throw with players hanging off him and should have taken the sack or thrown the ball away. However, Jeff Fuller - who was regarded as the go-to guy in many situations - had a lot of issues getting separation, falling during breaks, not coming back to the ball. He dealt with a hammy and a bad toe all year, too. His team as a whole frequently fell a part during quarters or halves.I'll see if I can fit in the Texas game, too.

 

[eNdblu]

Not knowing where Tannehill ends up, I'm starting to wonder if his path to success will now come faster than Luck and RG3? Where ever he ends up, I'm assuming the team will already have some talent rostered compared to Indy that just cleaned house and Washington that just got dinged $36m in cap space.

Could Tannehill be the Big Ben of this draft class?

 

[Matt Waldman]

I really like Luck and RGIII so I don't want to get that far ahead and discuss the notion of Tannehill starting off better than those other two players. The speed that RGIII plays is something I've critiqued, but it also can be a phenomenal thing. I've never seen a player drop and set his feet (well) as fast as he does. The fact he has pretty good if not very good form as a thrower with his athleticism is scary. His pocket presence isn't bad by any stretch.

Luck is a fine athlete in addition to all that he does as a player with a "cerebral" reputation. Tough player. He has a reckless streak, too. I think most good quarterbacks do. It's just knowing how to rein it in and learning to do so (just enough) in the NFL.

I'm beginning to believe you can't go wrong with Luck, RGIII, or Tannehill. I agree that a top-five NFL Draft pick for him is high. Top 10-15 I can stomach more than other folks.

 

[Hurl Bruce]

While Tannehill has a reckless streak, my answer based on what I've watched is a lot of dropped passes, poor routes, turnovers not attributable to him if you really analyze what happened on the plays and as a result playing from behind and forced to take further chances and risky decisions. A quarterback is only as good as his supporting cast and I would have to say that his supporting cast is a lot better on paper than it was on the field.

So, playing for the Browns wouldn't be any different?