Why so down on J Harrison (Pitt)? (1 Viewer)

[bucsbaby]

The general sense I get from these boards is that J Harrison was a one-hit-wonder last season with his one huge game and thus his belonging in the top crop of LBs is a mirage.

However, after a closer look, I have to disagree with that estimation.

Note 1: This post is based on the assumption that Harrison is still the starter and Timmons will only spell Harrison in spots. That is what I have read thusfar and if anyone can say for sure otherwise, I would be glad to hear it.

Note 2: This post is based on the following scoring system and CBSSportsline 2007 stats:

Tackle: 1.5

Assist: .5

Sack/Safety/INT/FF/FR: 6

Pass Def: 3

DTD: 10

Note 3: Yes, last year was last year. However, can we really say that we throw out last year with yesterday's garbage when trying to estimate this year's performance? I would say definitely not. We for sure have to consider changes in situation, aging, etc. when looking to adjust our expectations, but I don't see Harrison's situation having changed all that much from last year (see Note 1). He's still a pass-rushing force on Blitzburgh. I would consider seasons before last, but last year was his first year as a starter.

Ok, so, yes Harrison had the 71 point explosion. However, what did he do outside of that?

12.5, 13.5, 8.5, 17, 8.5, 19.5, 17.5, (71), 19.5, 17, 15, 6, 6, 10, 3, 9.5

I see a number of games that I would be very happy to have started him, although I do admit he tapered off at the end of the season, notably during the fantasy playoffs--so that sucks. But, if you started him all year I would think he certainly helped you to get to the playoffs posting nice totals through the first 11 games of the season. And, of course, he single-handedly won you a game last year.

His median fantasy score last year was 13, which is very respectable in this scoring system.

A few LBs for the sake of comparison (median scores from last year):

Willis 15.5

Ryans 14.25

Harrison 13

Barnett 12.5

J Peterson 9

I'm wondering if the fact that Harrison tanked in the fantasy playoffs left a bad taste in peoples' mouths when in fact he was consistently productive through most of the year last year?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Three things to consider with Harrison this season.

1. Scoring system

2. History

3. Projected 2008 opportunity.

Your sack-to-tackle ratio (4) and big reward for FF/FR make an all-around 3-4 OLB a much better prospect than he would be in a league in a system that more heavily rewards tackles. I wrote an offseason article comparing certain classes of LBs across a number of different scoring systems; guys like Harrison get significant bumps, and meaningful ones (i.e. not LB74 to LB52), in these systems.

History does not favor (even in Pittsburgh) an OLB repeating what was to that point a career season. Harrison's skill set and scheme make it more likely that he'll stay consistent than a guy like Calvin Pace, but it's still worth considering.

The opportunity for Harrison could go either way. The tackle numbers for Harrison are at highest risk, especially if Timmons and Polamalu play well. And the Steelers are likely to continue their recent streak of being one of the stingiest teams in the league with regard to tackle opportunity.

If you believe that Harrison can again make the most of his tackle opportunity and approach 75 solos, he's a clear LB2 in that particular system. In a system with a ratio between 2 and 3, which is what the bulk of this Forum's posters use I think, he'll absolutely have to hit those plateaus (75-8) to have LB3 or better value this year.

 

[bucsbaby]

Interesting, thanks Jene, I thought our scoring system was a bit closer to the norm, that's good to know. I don't see Harrison as an every-week starter, but I like him when he has a good matchup.

 

[corpcow]

Here's what I wrote in another thread about Harrison.

While I understand your point, you can't just "take away" a week... (I'm using my scoring for the rest of this, which is 1pt per tackle, 0.5 per solo, 3 pts per big play, and 1pt per pass defense)

The big thing we can use here to understand consistency is standard deviation. If you look at the top 20 LBs, the average st.dev is 4.35. Harrison is the highest at 7.55 which suggests that the 35 is a huge outlier - the next closest is David Harris at 6.6 mostly because I'm using those early weeks where he didn't start/play a big role.

Interestingly, Willis, Ray Lewis, and Demeco Ryans are also above average at 5.7-6.0. In Ryans case, it was because of his huge 28 pt week 7. Ray Lewis had a 27 pt explosion.

Among the most consistet were EJ Henderson (SDev 2.1, never below 5.5 and never above 13.5), Beason at 2.99 SD, and Morrison at 2.86.

But let's dig into Harrison for a minute... his 35 point (in my scoring) outburst is what put him squarely in the top 10 - without it, he's nowhere near an LB1. That said, he was actually very consistent otherwise. If you just take that big game out entirely, he has a standard deviation of 2.86. If we give him his otherwise average score of 7pts that week, it gives him 110 for the year, which puts him around LB40 in my scoring. If you look at some of the guys in that range (Farrior, Gerald Hayes, Phillips, Adalius Thomas), he would have gotten those numbers with far more consistent week-to-week performances.

SO, while you probably shouldn't expect the same top 10 LB performance from him overall (though as an owner I would certainly love it!), I think his floor isn't as low as it's being made out to be.

Then consider that all of the top LBs had one or two weeks that were real outliers and padded their stats - Ryans had the 28pts, Fletcher had a 22.5 week, Witherspoon had an 18.5 week, Brackett had a 17 pt week, Howard had a 20.5 week. Let's say that Harrison, on top of his relatively consistent week-to-week performance, has one big week - not as big as his 2007 explosion, but scoring 21.3 (the average of those big weeks I previously mentioned).

This gives him 124.3 pts, which would be around #24 on the list...

 

[Anthony Borbely]

There has not been one single 3-4 OLB to make it into the top 20 more than once in the last five years in FBG scoring. Not Merriman. Not Ware. Nobody. They are very inconsistent from year to year in standard scoring. I think Harrison is solid, but he is not an elite talent like Merriman or Ware in my opinion, and if those two are not regulars in the top 20, I can't expect Harrison to be.

 

[corpcow]

There has not been one single 3-4 OLB to make it into the top 20 more than once in the last five years in FBG scoring. Not Merriman. Not Ware. Nobody. They are very inconsistent from year to year in standard scoring. I think Harrison is solid, but he is not an elite talent like Merriman or Ware in my opinion, and if those two are not regulars in the top 20, I can't expect Harrison to be.

I don't expect him to be LB1, but as I said above a low end LB2 / high end LB3 is not unrealistic... my point was, outside of that outburst, he was actually very consistent week to week.

 

[bucsbaby]

Harrison = Beast...write it down

Houston = Bad

p.s., good news I was right about Harrison, bad news I second-guessed myself and started Vilma instead (who played ok), good news is hopefully it won't cost me the win this week

 

[Tybeeman]

Harrison had a monster game yesterday

1 FF

7 Tackles

3 Sacks

2 Assists

This equals 19 PTS in Zealots scoring and at the moment, the highest scoring LB for week 1. I think the presence of Woodley will only benefit Harrison

 

[bucsbaby]

Another solid game from Harrison last night when I didn't expect as much from him. Are people willing to admit that he's a must-start yet?

 

[corpcow]

He's LB3 for me right now (behind only Willis and Woodley). Having been able to actually watch the last few games, I really do think they are helping each other... tey are bringing a LOT of pressure.

22 solos, 9 asst, 3 FF, 6.5 sacks, and a PD over 5 games.

I hope he makes it through the year as a top 10 LB again so I can resign him (or get a 1st rounder for him in RFA).

 

[Jene Bramel]

Another solid game from Harrison last night when I didn't expect as much from him. Are people willing to admit that he's a must-start yet?

He's always been a must start in any sack-heavy league where you start at least three LBs. He was a very nice high upside LB3/4 in balanced leagues. Right now, on his 21 sack pace, he's a must start in tackle-heavy leagues as well.But those in balanced and tackle-heavy leagues are still starting a player with plenty of risk. Understand that the Steelers -- yet again -- are getting the worst tackle opportunity in the league. Realize that Harrison has 16 solos (less sacks) through five games -- barely three solos a game -- which is well outside the top 40 in that category.I said earlier in the thread that Harrison was the type of all-around player that will work in most leagues. I've got him in at least one balanced league to use as a big upside LB3 against juicy matchups behind a couple of consistent players. I'd love to see him continue to be more than that.

 

[bucsbaby]

Hey AB, it's almost half-way through the season and Harrison is still dominant. Are you willing to give him the nod to make it in the top 20 yet?

 

[bucsbaby]

B-E-A-S-T!!!

 

[corpcow]

Stupid question - how many tackles did Harrison have last night? The Game Center shows 5, but his stats show as 7 (as does Yahoo). MFL has him listed at 7 tackles, but in the calculation only counts 5 tackles (in my scoring gives him 11.5 instead of the 13.5 he would have had if he went 7/4).

From what I can tell, these are all the plays from him in the gamebook... In the gamebook, it lists him as 5/4 and then 5/3 somewhere else. It lists him having 2 special teams tackles... maybe I'm just missing something, but what should his line be?

Spoiler

SOLOS:

Je.Reed kicks 64 yards from PIT 30 to WAS 6. R.Cartwright to WAS 33 for 27 yards (J.Harrison).

4-21-PIT 40 (6:45) M.Berger punts 37 yards to WAS 23, Center-J.Retkofsky. A.Randle El to WAS 28 for 5 yards

(J.Harrison).(7:02) C.Portis left guard to PIT 41 for 2 yards (J.Harrison).

(3:43) S.Alexander right tackle to PIT 40 for 4 yards (J.Harrison).

(1:10) J.Campbell pass short left to A.Randle El to WAS 40 for 5 yards (J.Harrison).

(7:30) C.Portis right end to WAS 35 for 7 yards (J.Harrison).

ASSIST:

(14:55) C.Portis up the middle to PIT 35 for 1 yard (Aa.Smith, J.Harrison).

(13:50) C.Portis right end to PIT 27 for 1 yard (L.Foote; J.Harrison).

(10:16) C.Portis left guard to WAS 18 for 3 yards (J.Farrior, J.Harrison).

What are these? Hits on the QB? Hurries?

(11:51) J.Campbell pass short right to J.Thrash to PIT 25 for 5 yards (D.Townsend) [J.Harrison].

(6:22) J.Campbell pass incomplete short right to J.Thrash (D.Townsend) [J.Harrison].

Sacks:

(15:00) (Shotgun) J.Campbell sacked at WAS 34 for -5 yards (sack split by J.Farrior and J.Harrison).

(11:53) (Shotgun) J.Campbell sacked at WAS 18 for -11 yards (J.Harrison).

Do you get credit for a tackle on a sack?

Update: nevermind, MFL says they don't count special teams tackles, while Yahoo does. Oh well.

 

[awesomeness]

Do you get credit for a tackle on a sack?

Update: nevermind, MFL says they don't count special teams tackles, while Yahoo does. Oh well.

Just to let you know, you do get credit for a tackle on a sack.

 

[corpcow]

Do you get credit for a tackle on a sack?

Update: nevermind, MFL says they don't count special teams tackles, while Yahoo does. Oh well.

Just to let you know, you do get credit for a tackle on a sack.

Yeah, that makes sense. He had 4 solos and 3 asst without the 1.5 sacks... I guess I was forgetting that one of those sacks was a half sack. My brain is fried now

 

[JoeSteeler]

Special teams tackles count in my MFL league.

•1.435 pts for 7 Tackles

•0.400 pts for 4 Assists

•0.563 pts for 1.5 Sacked a QB

=2.398 pts

 

[Islander]

Harrison is killing me. I did not value him high enough pre-draft, therefore he's not on any of my teams. He actually ended up on my biggest rivals' team in most leagues.

 

[corpcow]

This dude is a monster. I love watching him and Woodley... how would you have liked to be the RT with the two of them lined up on you? No wonder he jumped

2 solos, a sack, an INT, a FF and a safety. He was LB2 in my balanced league (3:1 ratio) coming into this week behind only Willis... and he has 14 pts already. With Willis having an average day, he could end the week as LB1.

He's an RFA for me in my primary league but the good news is that I can match or, if he finishes in the top 10, then I get a 1st rounder as compensation.... I think I'll match

 

[T.A.]

This dude is a monster. I love watching him and Woodley... how would you have liked to be the RT with the two of them lined up on you? No wonder he jumped 2 solos, a sack, an INT, a FF and a safety. He was LB2 in my balanced league (3:1 ratio) coming into this week behind only Willis... and he has 14 pts already. With Willis having an average day, he could end the week as LB1.He's an RFA for me in my primary league but the good news is that I can match or, if he finishes in the top 10, then I get a 1st rounder as compensation.... I think I'll match

I recall Derrick Thomas rookie year. Big Neil Smith was a strong stud DE. From the opening game vs Denver, Thomas played one side and Smith the other.Until they played the Broncos the second time.During that game Thomas moves over to the other side (where they hadn't showed him in since the preseason) at one point right next to Smith on a passing down.Elway looks over... his eyes get big... it looks like he wants to say something to his line... reservation sets in and he just calls a timeout. Walks to the side line shaking his head.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Harrison is going to kill an already below average and now banged up Bengal OL on Thursday.

 

[corpcow]

Harrison is going to kill an already below average and now banged up Bengal OL on Thursday.

Good, I need him to finish in the top 8, and I could also use some big games for my push for a playoff bye

 

[Super King]

He's the highest scoring player on my team.

 

[Ozymandias]

Unfortunately, the Bengals game planned around him. So he killed them with sacks last time? OK, then they are going to go with 3 step drops all game.

He came close on several occasions, but didn't get a sack. Can't always predict these things.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Unfortunately, the Bengals game planned around him. So he killed them with sacks last time? OK, then they are going to go with 3 step drops all game.He came close on several occasions, but didn't get a sack. Can't always predict these things.

State of the turf had an awful lot to do with this as well. Though the three step drop played a role and they were credited with a pretty conservative two quarterback hits, but there were many Steelers a half step away from a sack Thursday night.