pinkham13
Footballguy
What are the implications if they do? https://apnews.com/article/business-japan-beijing-united-states-australia-b0f269e205e33d5b220bc99c5e7ba5f2
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Will China invade Taiwan? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter pinkham13
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pinkham13
Footballguy
If you read the link it would appear to be sooner rather than later. Plenty of indications that they see Ukraine as a positive development. While we are sending tons of equipment to Europe they can send in a million man flotilla to occupy the island. An island that produces all of our semiconductors.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/will-china-invade-taiwan/ar-AAXX6HR
Dictator XI says let’s not leave it to the next generation https://news.yahoo.com/xi-jinping-says-taiwan-reunification-191547780.html
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parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Jayrod
Footballguy
The consequences? Quite literally WW3.
I voted no. China is arrogant, bold and ambitious but they aren't stupid. Why risk getting beat in all out war when they have made great gains under the status quo? Just don't see them actually crossing that bright line we've drawn...unless a US President doesn't commit to defending Taiwan. Biden won't and any Republican candidate won't.
I voted no. China is arrogant, bold and ambitious but they aren't stupid. Why risk getting beat in all out war when they have made great gains under the status quo? Just don't see them actually crossing that bright line we've drawn...unless a US President doesn't commit to defending Taiwan. Biden won't and any Republican candidate won't.
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
Probably not in my lifetime.
moleculo
Footballguy
Speculation on my part: China sees the unified economic response to Russia and wants no part of that.
Cutting off China economically would be disastrous... For everyone. Like, world wide depression. If you think we have supply chain issues now, Cutting off China would be a million times worse.
That being said, we would recover faster than they would. We can bring manufacturing back easier than they can replace their markets.
Edit: that being said, all of the whining about inflation right now would embolden them. If we can't deal with 8% inflation, we will fall apart when we see 50%. Maybe they have a point.
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pinkham13
Footballguy
I’m not so sure. Russia is raking it in with sky high oil. China will pay them for oil in roubles no problem. Taiwan is so close to their security apparatus I think Xi believes it is his duty to reunite the island nation with the motherland. He has said as much publicly. Can we really stop buying from China or Russia? Oil, uranium and finished goods don’t seem to be coming from our shores in the way we need it to. China is likely more emboldened not less imho. Thanks for the banter. Very interesting topic given the unsustainable global debt situation.
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The Commish
Footballguy
China is working Russia to the tune of a $30ish a barrel discount in terms of oil. This can keep Russia afloat for a bit, but it won't allow them to regenerate. They aren't buying nearly enough barrels and they aren't close on price.
FairWarning
Footballguy
Like the US is going to stop it.
Summer Wheat
Footballguy
Voted no but really Not sure, the puzzling thing is China does not need Tawain. To invade them would cause chaos for China in so many ways.
That being said Ukraine has caused chaos for Russia for now what will be years to come.
That being said Ukraine has caused chaos for Russia for now what will be years to come.
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Jayrod
Footballguy
The Left and the Right agree to go to war over Taiwan.
It's a very real thing mostly because of superconductors.
Insomniac
Footballguy
I don't see many people on either the Left or Right that care much about Taiwan. As far as I know the "Official" position of the US government is the same as it was since 1948, China and Taiwan are 1 country. I'll agree that's just diplomatic BS but we're not anywhere close to recognizing Taiwan, and they're not anywhere close to claiming there are 2 China's.
Assuming the people in Taiwan want to maintain their current status exactly how would China land an invasion force? "The Million Man Swim"? Maybe China really does have the Navy and landing boats that could pull it off, but I doubt it.
whoknew
Footballguy
The exchange below was like two weeks ago. Maybe he's lying or being cute with his language, but it seems like we would go to war over Taiwan -
“You didn’t want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for obvious reasons,” a reporter said to Mr. Biden. “Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan if it comes to that?”
“Yes,” Mr. Biden answered flatly.
“You are?” the reporter followed up.
“That’s the commitment we made,” he said.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Biden said that because he has absolutely no clue what is in the current Taiwan treaty. His handlers and the defense dept needed to walk back his statement almost immediately before China exploded (since they actually know what's in the treaty).
The Taiwan Relations Act does not guarantee the U.S. will intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan nor does it relinquish it, as its primary purpose is to ensure the US's Taiwan policy will not be changed unilaterally by the president and ensure any decision to defend Taiwan will be made with the consent of Congress. The act states that "the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capabilities". However, the decision about the nature and quantity of defense services that America will provide to Taiwan is to be determined by the President and Congress. America's policy has been called "strategic ambiguity", and it is designed to dissuade Taiwan from a unilateral declaration of independence, and to dissuade the PRC from unilaterally unifying Taiwan with the PRC.
Monty Burns
Footballguy
good read on the complexities of an invasion of Taiwan: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/4/how-difficult-would-it-be-for-china-to-invade-taiwan
Insomniac
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Xi has cemented his legacy without feeling like he has to invade. He already retook Hong Kong and brought them to heel without an invasion. He doesn't need Taiwan. China is ascendent (until their demographics hose them) and there is a rising tide there.
Russia was becoming marginalized on the world stage, certainly eclipsed by China and likely others in the next 30 years. Plus, if the world really does diminish their fossil fuel use, Russia was looking at falling further behind. Recapturing former soviet states would have cemented Putin's legacy.
Glad it's not working out for him, but Ukraine is paying the price.
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