Will the 1.02 rookie pick be overvalued or will it drop in value? (1 Viewer)

[JohnnyU]

Ashton Jeanty is the clear 1.01 regardless of format. It gets unclear at the 1.02. Tet McMillan has been projected to go at that spot by most of the dynasty community, especially in start 1QB leagues, but as the the draft gets closer I can see that becoming muddier. In SuperFlex, the 1.02 isn't that clear either, but obviously the two QBs Ward and Sanders are probably looking at top 5 in rookie drafts. I can see as May approaches that teams will probably want to settle in the 1.05 - 1.08 range and not want to move up. If it's not moving up to 1.01 I don't see the incentive to do so. Thoughts?

 

[rockaction]

I don't see the incentive to do so. Thoughts?

From what I've seen that's very accurate. Gauging the market vs. gauging the experts shows that Keep Trade Cut has the difference at about 300 points, or the player the quality of DeMarcus Robinson, Noah Brown, Treylon Burks, and a few others. So KTC says the difference between the 1.01 and 1.02 is negligble.

FootballGuys sees it differently. It has it as a ten point difference between the 1.01 and 1.02, with the players making up the deficit being a Courtland Sutton, Tyreek Hill, Michael Pittman, Alvin Kamara, and Tyrone Tracy-type of guy. A very meaningful and significant difference, one might say.

Totally different ballparks there.

I think you're going to have to wait for the combine and draft and see if there's a riser in the group. As of today, you're probably right that I'd want to sit in that range instead of moving up to the 1.02. Unless rookie fever takes a hold of you and you have to have Emeka Egbuka over Tetairoa McMillan or something like that. I'm not sold yet on the guys going two and three and four to move up. Omarion Hampton (or Judkins) are probably the guys you'd move up for, and I'm not blown away by Hampton right now. I know he ran track in high school, but I want to see the running backs run at the combine.

If I were picking, I'd try and find somebody who isn't valuing their twos and trade back. I'd rather have three twos and a one than two ones and nothing else. That's how deep the RB class looks and you want as many pokers in that fire as you can get. That's my assessment.

 

[efactor]

Will be an easier question to answer after the draft and we know all the landing spots. I have #3 overall from a trade I made before the draft last year and have been trying to trade up to #2 for McMillen. Same guy has 1 and 2 now and seems intent on keeping them unless he gets a severe overpay. I think McMillen is the clear #2 at this point but if Hampton ends up in a good spot, I'll be fine staying at 3 and grabbing him. Definitely not going to overpay.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Hype will grow as we see where prospects land and I imagine that will inflate those top picks by quite a bit. I happen to have picks 1.07 through 1.09. I plan on trying to turn some of those into 2nd rounders and 2017 1sts. I think the 2nd round in this years draft will be of great value.

 

[menobrown]

1.2 will only go up.

Tet, a QB, even at least one of the TE's for those inclined in TEP should hold steady enough.

But when some of these second tier RB's after Jeanty get drafted in late round one into early mid-round two and people can start to envision their role is where the growth potential lies.

Really on that note, since this is such a RB heavy draft, how well these RB's land is what's going to drive the value for most of round one.

 

[rockaction]

But when some of these second tier RB's after Jeanty get drafted in late round one into early mid-round two and people can start to envision their role is where the growth potential lies.

If you don't mind me asking, what do you mean by that?

 

[-OZ-]

can see as May approaches that teams will probably want to settle in the 1.05 - 1.08 range and not want to move up

I think this is true. I currently have the 1.04 (mine) and 1.16 (from a trade). I don’t really see much of a difference between the 2 and 4 right now, as I think burden is close enough to McMillan and I’d expect at least one of the tier two backs to be taken to a good spot. In TEP this might be one of the largest second tier drafts in a long time with 2-12 not being that much of a difference other than preference and need.

 

[-OZ-]

plan on trying to turn some of those into 2nd rounders and 2017 1sts.

That’s an interesting plan.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

plan on trying to turn some of those into 2nd rounders and 2017 1sts.

That’s an interesting plan.

I mean, probably can get them almost for free

 

[rockaction]

I mean, probably can get them almost for free

Have my second!

No, you have my second!

But I agree with the general premise. If you don't like the '26 class, move out to '25 if it winds up being that good (I honestly don't know and am always about slowing down the hype train—I've watched these backs now and they're not that good).

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I mean, probably can get them almost for free

Have my second!

No, you have my second!

But I agree with the general premise. If you don't like the '26 class, move out to '25 if it winds up being that good (I honestly don't know and am always about slowing down the hype train—I've watched these backs now and they're not that good).

I was more thinking about the 2017 1sts that were referenced

 

[travdogg]

I think the value of the 1.2 pick will be heavily influenced by what the NFL decides Travis Hunter is.

 

[rockaction]

I mean, probably can get them almost for free

Have my second!

No, you have my second!

But I agree with the general premise. If you don't like the '26 class, move out to '25 if it winds up being that good (I honestly don't know and am always about slowing down the hype train—I've watched these backs now and they're not that good).

I was more thinking about the 2017 1sts that were referenced

Oh yeah. I didn't read that so carefully. I thought you were kidding about the ease with which it's assumed you can just "get" a second-round pick. (Not that anyone assumed that; I just thought that was your take until I re-read his post.)

Much ado about nothing.

 

[menobrown]

But when some of these second tier RB's after Jeanty get drafted in late round one into early mid-round two and people can start to envision their role is where the growth potential lies.

If you don't mind me asking, what do you mean by that?

Nothing deep. Just that I think the value of the pick likely increases in value when landing spots for the second tier, aka the non-Jeanty Rb's, land. This is because we have no consensus on them in a deep RB class and I don't think the value increases for the likely few who marry up draft capital and good landing spot.

 

[-OZ-]

I think the value of the 1.2 pick will be heavily influenced by what the NFL decides Travis Hunter is.

That’s probably true, but I’m not sure I’d take him over McMillan or burden even if he’s announced as a WR. Although burden might fall further than I think he should.

Just looking at the receivers likely taken in the first - Hunter, McMillan, golden, burden, egbuka; I’d think the one chosen by the patriots becomes the consensus 1.02 - possibly unless the bengals, chiefs, chargers or broncos draft a back in the 2nd. Maybe that’s Hunter. But if Godwin leaves Tampa, I’d like to see burden there and he’d be a strong candidate for the 2 imo especially if Hunter went to NE and McMillan to the raiders. Lots of speculation of course, it’s going to be a fun off season.

 

[Boston]

But when some of these second tier RB's after Jeanty get drafted in late round one into early mid-round two and people can start to envision their role is where the growth potential lies.

If you don't mind me asking, what do you mean by that?

Nothing deep. Just that I think the value of the pick likely increases in value when landing spots for the second tier, aka the non-Jeanty Rb's, land. This is because we have no consensus on them in a deep RB class and I don't think the value increases for the likely few who marry up draft capital and good landing spot.

Agreed...I think the same applies to McMillan...if he was to go #4 to the Pats and teamed up with Maye he would be in a very good position for both short-and long-term success and his value will increase.

 

[Boston]

I think the value of the 1.2 pick will be heavily influenced by what the NFL decides Travis Hunter is.

That’s probably true, but I’m not sure I’d take him over McMillan or burden even if he’s announced as a WR. Although burden might fall further than I think he should.

Just looking at the receivers likely taken in the first - Hunter, McMillan, golden, burden, egbuka; I’d think the one chosen by the patriots becomes the consensus 1.02 - possibly unless the bengals, chiefs, chargers or broncos draft a back in the 2nd. Maybe that’s Hunter. But if Godwin leaves Tampa, I’d like to see burden there and he’d be a strong candidate for the 2 imo especially if Hunter went to NE and McMillan to the raiders. Lots of speculation of course, it’s going to be a fun off season.

Somehow missed this post when I posted above...I think this really applies in a big way to McMillan (and Hunter if he is drafted more as a WR) if they use the 1.4 on him...I can't see the other guys going 1.4 and some of their value would be tied into who else the Pats bring in at WR...same could apply to McMillan (and Hunter) but just guessing if they use 1.4 on a WR one of the reasons is they did not add a big time WR via FA or a trade...whoever ends up being the Pats alpha WR next year has a great opportunity to put up some high quality #'s.

 

[menobrown]

I think the value of the 1.2 pick will be heavily influenced by what the NFL decides Travis Hunter is.

That’s probably true, but I’m not sure I’d take him over McMillan or burden even if he’s announced as a WR. Although burden might fall further than I think he should.

Just looking at the receivers likely taken in the first - Hunter, McMillan, golden, burden, egbuka; I’d think the one chosen by the patriots becomes the consensus 1.02 - possibly unless the bengals, chiefs, chargers or broncos draft a back in the 2nd. Maybe that’s Hunter. But if Godwin leaves Tampa, I’d like to see burden there and he’d be a strong candidate for the 2 imo especially if Hunter went to NE and McMillan to the raiders. Lots of speculation of course, it’s going to be a fun off season.

Somehow missed this post when I posted above...I think this really applies in a big way to McMillan (and Hunter if he is drafted more as a WR) if they use the 1.4 on him...I can't see the other guys going 1.4 and some of their value would be tied into who else the Pats bring in at WR...same could apply to McMillan (and Hunter) but just guessing if they use 1.4 on a WR one of the reasons is they did not add a big time WR via FA or a trade...whoever ends up being the Pats alpha WR next year has a great opportunity to put up some high quality #'s.

Total agreement on that as well as RB landing spots being defined.

Somehow, someway, just feel pretty confident a second player in this draft is going to marry talent, draft capital and landing spot. In other words it's hard for me to think every top ranked player other then Jeanty is going to strike out.