Will the Patriots try to prove themselves again in'08? (1 Viewer)

[cjack]

By that I mean, will the Patriots do what they did last year and run up the score continually on undermanned opponents? I don't care one way or the other, but I'm curious to know because it will drive the fantasy fortunes of many of their players. Brady, Moss, Welker, and the rest had their record setting seasons because the Patriots continued to pile on points throughout the game whether it was necessary or not. Many of their games were blow-outs and the Patriots could have been content to bring in some more backups or step off the gas.

If they don't run up the score like they did last year, then the crazy stats from Brady and Moss will come back to earth. Also, since their schedule rates so easy this year, that could make it easier to run up the score, or if Belichek has eaten any humble pie, it might mean the Patriots' starters can rest from the 3rd quarter on.

Does Belichek still have something to prove, particularly since they lost the Super Bowl, or is he content to eat up the clock and give his back-ups a little more playing time when the game is out of hand?

I just think a lot of the Patriots' player fantasy success last year was driven by their need to score 38 points or whatever when the opponent only scored 10. If that continues, draft Brady and Moss early. If not, let someone else take them that high. What's the consensus?

 

[twitch]

I dont think they'll take their foot off the gas at all. I dont necessarily think theyll just throw, throw, throw. But I think theyll still be looking to definitely score on teams late in games even though they may be up by 2 or 3 scores should it come to that. No question. Are we gonna see 3 or 4 more games of 5 or 6 TDs from Brady? Thats just hard to imagine.

 

[Big_Russel]

If they can run the score up on a team, they will. But their offensive line is a little banged up right now, more so than most people realize. I think you are going to see a lot more power running from them early in the season with Maroney/Jordan, and they will slowly start to open up that ridiculous passing attack as the lineman get healthy.

 

[cjack]

I dont think they'll take their foot off the gas at all. I dont necessarily think theyll just throw, throw, throw. But I think theyll still be looking to definitely score on teams late in games even though they may be up by 2 or 3 scores should it come to that. No question. Are we gonna see 3 or 4 more games of 5 or 6 TDs from Brady? Thats just hard to imagine.

Do you think that's just Belichek's general MO, or did he really set out to prove something last year in particular? I don't really doubt that they'll be able to run up the score at will against many of their opponents, but does Belichek still feel the need to do that?Many teams could pad their fantasy stats by continuing to score against undermanned opponents, but most teams are content to run the ball and run out the clock when up by 3-4 scores late in the game.Does Belichek really subscribe to the thinking that he can never have enough points, or was last year a fluke in that he was pissed about Spygate or something else?Like you said, it's hard to imagine Brady having 5-6 TD games again, unless they're not finished proving what they set out to do last year.

 

[PatsFanCT]

And so it begins...

 

[twitch]

I dont think they'll take their foot off the gas at all. I dont necessarily think theyll just throw, throw, throw. But I think theyll still be looking to definitely score on teams late in games even though they may be up by 2 or 3 scores should it come to that. No question. Are we gonna see 3 or 4 more games of 5 or 6 TDs from Brady? Thats just hard to imagine.

Do you think that's just Belichek's general MO, or did he really set out to prove something last year in particular? I don't really doubt that they'll be able to run up the score at will against many of their opponents, but does Belichek still feel the need to do that?Many teams could pad their fantasy stats by continuing to score against undermanned opponents, but most teams are content to run the ball and run out the clock when up by 3-4 scores late in the game.Does Belichek really subscribe to the thinking that he can never have enough points, or was last year a fluke in that he was pissed about Spygate or something else?Like you said, it's hard to imagine Brady having 5-6 TD games again, unless they're not finished proving what they set out to do last year.

I think the scoring onslaught started out with an air of vengeance. But I think as the season wore on, they were just clicking so well, they just became that good. Like the 48 in the Dallas game, or the 50something vs. Washington. Or either of the Miami games, or the 56 vs. Buffalo. They were just executing with machine like efficiency. I expect if they execute at that level again, theyre gonna go full throttle as much as they can. I dont think theyll be out to prove anything this season. But again, I dont think that was really the MO last year as much as alot of people think. Most former professional NFLers agree there's really no such thing as running it up. You just score whenever and as often as you can. If the other team cant stop you, oh well. So, if were looking at scoring 40-50something on teams as running it up on undermanned opponents, then youll see some more of that this season. Because I guarantee you Brady and the Pats dont really look at their opponents ever as "undermanned". They view them as the enemy, and theyre gonna light it up as much as possible. And their schedule is weak, but I think teams will be sell out to the max to limit that air attack.

 

[cjack]

And so it begins...

I really don't have anything against it, I'm just interested in it from a fantasy football production perspective.

 

[cjack]

I dont think they'll take their foot off the gas at all. I dont necessarily think theyll just throw, throw, throw. But I think theyll still be looking to definitely score on teams late in games even though they may be up by 2 or 3 scores should it come to that. No question. Are we gonna see 3 or 4 more games of 5 or 6 TDs from Brady? Thats just hard to imagine.

Do you think that's just Belichek's general MO, or did he really set out to prove something last year in particular? I don't really doubt that they'll be able to run up the score at will against many of their opponents, but does Belichek still feel the need to do that?Many teams could pad their fantasy stats by continuing to score against undermanned opponents, but most teams are content to run the ball and run out the clock when up by 3-4 scores late in the game.Does Belichek really subscribe to the thinking that he can never have enough points, or was last year a fluke in that he was pissed about Spygate or something else?Like you said, it's hard to imagine Brady having 5-6 TD games again, unless they're not finished proving what they set out to do last year.

I think the scoring onslaught started out with an air of vengeance. But I think as the season wore on, they were just clicking so well, they just became that good. Like the 48 in the Dallas game, or the 50something vs. Washington. Or either of the Miami games, or the 56 vs. Buffalo. They were just executing with machine like efficiency. I expect if they execute at that level again, theyre gonna go full throttle as much as they can. I dont think theyll be out to prove anything this season. But again, I dont think that was really the MO last year as much as alot of people think. Most former professional NFLers agree there's really no such thing as running it up. You just score whenever and as often as you can. If the other team cant stop you, oh well. So, if were looking at scoring 40-50something on teams as running it up on undermanned opponents, then youll see some more of that this season. Because I guarantee you Brady and the Pats dont really look at their opponents ever as "undermanned". They view them as the enemy, and theyre gonna light it up as much as possible. And their schedule is weak, but I think teams will be sell out to the max to limit that air attack.

Glad to hear your thoughts. It would seem that the Patriots would be well served to strengthen their running game, so assuming Belicheck realizes that, he may not rely on the pass quite as much when they're comfortably in front. I'm trying to get a gauge here so I can determine where the value picks will be on the New England team. I think it's clear you'll have to pay handsomely to get Brady, Moss and even Welker, but Maroney, Jordan, Morris, etc. will come relatively cheap if one thinks they'll incorporate more of the running game. Unfortunately, there's still too many heads in the backfield, but it might be interesting to take a gamble on one of them if the price is right.

 

[daddymag]

I think there was some level of "we'll show 'em" last season. This season, I think it continues because it's just what they do best.

As far as four seasons ago, when Charlie Weis was still running the attack, he would go spread every so often just to freak the defense out. And it was obvious to me at that time that Brady did it really well. I had always kind of wondered what would happen if they just gave the ball to Brady and said go for it. Last season that happened.

This season the numbers might come back down somewhat, just because other teams won't be surprised by it again.

 

[cjack]

I think there was some level of "we'll show 'em" last season. This season, I think it continues because it's just what they do best.As far as four seasons ago, when Charlie Weis was still running the attack, he would go spread every so often just to freak the defense out. And it was obvious to me at that time that Brady did it really well. I had always kind of wondered what would happen if they just gave the ball to Brady and said go for it. Last season that happened.This season the numbers might come back down somewhat, just because other teams won't be surprised by it again.

Good point. New question: How much weaker do you think the defense is, if at all? Will they actually be forced to score more because other teams won't have a problem keeping up? I don't follow the Patriots in particular so I don't know how the aging is catching up to players like Harrison and Bruschi, and others. Have they infused any young talent on to the defensive side that we expect will have a positive impact?

 

[brednbuddah]

you mean prove for the 3rd year in a row that they´re chokers (AFC Champ game, Super Bowl)? yeah, I think they´ll be able to prove that point.

 

[TD Ryan]

FINISH!

this is the mantra of NE in camp this year.

this is the mentality (or theme) of the whole season.

NE will not let off the throttle on any team at any point.

Why would you expect them to?

Why would you expect any NFL team to?

 

[TD Ryan]

I think there was some level of "we'll show 'em" last season. This season, I think it continues because it's just what they do best.As far as four seasons ago, when Charlie Weis was still running the attack, he would go spread every so often just to freak the defense out. And it was obvious to me at that time that Brady did it really well. I had always kind of wondered what would happen if they just gave the ball to Brady and said go for it. Last season that happened.This season the numbers might come back down somewhat, just because other teams won't be surprised by it again.

Good point. New question: How much weaker do you think the defense is, if at all? Will they actually be forced to score more because other teams won't have a problem keeping up? I don't follow the Patriots in particular so I don't know how the aging is catching up to players like Harrison and Bruschi, and others. Have they infused any young talent on to the defensive side that we expect will have a positive impact?

NE will be a higher risk/higher reward defense this year.They will put more effort into pressuring the passer.Their secondary is weaker at CB but may be stronger at S (Merriweather coming along nice, Harrison and John Lynch).NE has been toying with safeties as a modified 3-4 MLB (see Tank W. before injury).Pressure the passer. Prevent the big play (5 DBs on the field)Confuse with odd formations (is a LB a Dlineman? is a Safety a LB? Who's rushing, who's covering?)Give up the middle/easy stuff.Repeat process until you make a play/tunrover/etc.

 

[cjack]

FINISH!

this is the mantra of NE in camp this year.

this is the mentality (or theme) of the whole season.

NE will not let off the throttle on any team at any point.

Why would you expect them to?

Why would you expect any NFL team to?

I would expect a rational team to continue playing good football, but they might want to balance the run and the pass so they're not so one dimensional come the Super Bowl. I would expect an NFL team might want to play some more back-ups when they're up by 28 points to get others some more game experience and to keep everyone fresh.Again, I don't have any axe to grind. If they can score 60, then score 60, but I don't always think that's in the best interest of the team.

 

[daddymag]

I think there was some level of "we'll show 'em" last season. This season, I think it continues because it's just what they do best.

As far as four seasons ago, when Charlie Weis was still running the attack, he would go spread every so often just to freak the defense out. And it was obvious to me at that time that Brady did it really well. I had always kind of wondered what would happen if they just gave the ball to Brady and said go for it. Last season that happened.

This season the numbers might come back down somewhat, just because other teams won't be surprised by it again.

Good point. New question: How much weaker do you think the defense is, if at all? Will they actually be forced to score more because other teams won't have a problem keeping up? I don't follow the Patriots in particular so I don't know how the aging is catching up to players like Harrison and Bruschi, and others. Have they infused any young talent on to the defensive side that we expect will have a positive impact?

I don't particularly feel like the defense is any weaker or better. They've got an infusion of youth at LB finally, they lost Samuel. Well, two seasons ago remember they were playing Troy Brown at DB. As much lip service as Rodney Harrison gets, he's been off the field half the time. When the Colts won, they won by exposing the Pats' LBs.Frankly IMO, the Pats have always had a defense with serious question marks. I am not a Belichick fan but this is for sure, the guy takes what he has and makes the best of it.

 

[TD Ryan]

the guy takes what he has and makes the best of it.

Dom Capers is a nice addition to the NE coaching staff.Excellent guy to "coach up" the weak secondary.

 

[cjack]

I think there was some level of "we'll show 'em" last season. This season, I think it continues because it's just what they do best.As far as four seasons ago, when Charlie Weis was still running the attack, he would go spread every so often just to freak the defense out. And it was obvious to me at that time that Brady did it really well. I had always kind of wondered what would happen if they just gave the ball to Brady and said go for it. Last season that happened.This season the numbers might come back down somewhat, just because other teams won't be surprised by it again.

Good point. New question: How much weaker do you think the defense is, if at all? Will they actually be forced to score more because other teams won't have a problem keeping up? I don't follow the Patriots in particular so I don't know how the aging is catching up to players like Harrison and Bruschi, and others. Have they infused any young talent on to the defensive side that we expect will have a positive impact?

NE will be a higher risk/higher reward defense this year.They will put more effort into pressuring the passer.Their secondary is weaker at CB but may be stronger at S (Merriweather coming along nice, Harrison and John Lynch).NE has been toying with safeties as a modified 3-4 MLB (see Tank W. before injury).Pressure the passer. Prevent the big play (5 DBs on the field)Confuse with odd formations (is a LB a Dlineman? is a Safety a LB? Who's rushing, who's covering?)Give up the middle/easy stuff.Repeat process until you make a play/tunrover/etc.

Generally, I would say that a more aggressive defense leads to a higher scoring game, unless they're unable to force the big play/turnover and teams march down field on them 3-4 yards at a time, eating up lots of clock.

 

[Tanner9919]

And so it begins...

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm hearing that the team learned from last year and will try to keep players healthier and freshier for the playoffs. I would expect the second and third stringers to be in the game a lot earlier in games this year. So if NE gets up 34-3, I doubt we will see them leave Brady and the A team in to make it 48-3. Too many guys were tired or got nicked up late in the season. They've already said they plan to pull Moss off the field to give him more rest during games (he was in on almost every play last year and was a decoy a lot of times). We'll see if the rest/pacing approach lasts. If they start off with however many wins and no losses again, they may ramp up for another shot at a perfect season. Of course, plenty of other teams will have a say in that.

I'm also hearing that the defense should be better than last year and by a decent margin. Seymour is back to his old self, the front 7 as a unit got younger and faster, and the secondary supposedly will be better by being deeper than last year (although I still think losing Samuel will be tough). So I have been told the defense will be noticably better than last year.

However, I'm hearing the offense is struggling some, due mostly to injuries and depth at the OL. Overall it sounds like the offense is a little out of sync for now, but we know that when they get it together they can be a machine. I think they like the addition of Jordan, as that gives them some additions options and plays to work with.

 

[cjack]

I'm hearing that the team learned from last year and will try to keep players healthier and freshier for the playoffs. I would expect the second and third stringers to be in the game a lot earlier in games this year. So if NE gets up 34-3, I doubt we will see them leave Brady and the A team in to make it 48-3. Too many guys were tired or got nicked up late in the season. They've already said they plan to pull Moss off the field to give him more rest during games (he was in on almost every play last year and was a decoy a lot of times). We'll see if the rest/pacing approach lasts. If they start off with however many wins and no losses again, they may ramp up for another shot at a perfect season. Of course, plenty of other teams will have a say in that.I'm also hearing that the defense should be better than last year and by a decent margin. Seymour is back to his old self, the front 7 as a unit got younger and faster, and the secondary supposedly will be better by being deeper than last year (although I still think losing Samuel will be tough). So I have been told the defense will be noticably better than last year.However, I'm hearing the offense is struggling some, due mostly to injuries and depth at the OL. Overall it sounds like the offense is a little out of sync for now, but we know that when they get it together they can be a machine. I think they like the addition of Jordan, as that gives them some additions options and plays to work with.

Thanks David, that's some great insight. Obviously, I would still expect Brady and Moss to rank at the top of their respective positions, but from that, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to approach last year's gaudy numbers. In which case, I probably won't take those guys at their ADP, but I might take a flyer on Jordan later in the draft.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm hearing that the team learned from last year and will try to keep players healthier and freshier for the playoffs. I would expect the second and third stringers to be in the game a lot earlier in games this year. So if NE gets up 34-3, I doubt we will see them leave Brady and the A team in to make it 48-3. Too many guys were tired or got nicked up late in the season. They've already said they plan to pull Moss off the field to give him more rest during games (he was in on almost every play last year and was a decoy a lot of times). We'll see if the rest/pacing approach lasts. If they start off with however many wins and no losses again, they may ramp up for another shot at a perfect season. Of course, plenty of other teams will have a say in that.I'm also hearing that the defense should be better than last year and by a decent margin. Seymour is back to his old self, the front 7 as a unit got younger and faster, and the secondary supposedly will be better by being deeper than last year (although I still think losing Samuel will be tough). So I have been told the defense will be noticably better than last year.However, I'm hearing the offense is struggling some, due mostly to injuries and depth at the OL. Overall it sounds like the offense is a little out of sync for now, but we know that when they get it together they can be a machine. I think they like the addition of Jordan, as that gives them some additions options and plays to work with.

Thanks David, that's some great insight. Obviously, I would still expect Brady and Moss to rank at the top of their respective positions, but from that, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to approach last year's gaudy numbers. In which case, I probably won't take those guys at their ADP, but I might take a flyer on Jordan later in the draft.

I have been suggesting that even with health to the skill position guys, no health to the OL could be an issue. To bring people up to speed, I hear that NE is ready to roll with Maroney, Morris, Jordan, Faulk, and Evans at RB. That will leave Eckel and Green as free agents and perhaps then to the practice squad. They also appear to be ready to go with just two TEs . . . Watson and Thomas, leaving Marcus Pollard as the odd man out. Obviously that hasn't happened yet, so that's speculation at this point.In terms of the offense, I'm also hearing that the team is practiving a lot of shorter, underneath, screen type stuff to try to minimize the impact of the Giants "blueprint" to beating them (in addition to the OL injuries). The theory is that they will take less time, require less protection, and will keep Brady upright until the OL heals up. Sprinkle in some play action deep to Moss, and there you have it.Sadly (at least IMO), it looks like Gaffney is going to start the year as the team's WR2 and Chad Jackson on the field in 4 WR sets. It looks like Jackson needs more seasoning, but I still think at some point they will give him a fair amount of playing time and use Gaffney as the #4 guy.

 

[DawnBTVS]

Belichick, even as far back as 2001 (44-13 vs. Indy, 38-6 vs. Carolina) wasn't afraid to score as many points as it took and I think last year, everything just clicked for them partly because they had three guys that are really talented with a really good depth of talent around them.

As for the defense, people forget just how dominant that defense was. As much praise as the offense gets, they may have been the best defense in the Patriots Belichick era as well. They held 5 of their first 9 opponents to less than 2 TD. In the 2nd half of the year, they held 4 teams to less than 2 TD so that's half a season's worth of teams that couldn't score more than 14 points.

Even in the playoffs, they only allowed point totals of 20, 12, and 17.

The defense will once again be the question mark but I think it'll surprise some people. There's always going to be the question of age but the Patriots have youth at LB (Pierre Woods and Jerod Mayo both impressed) while Junior Seau still could return later down the road. They've deepened the depth at secondary and supposedly have signed John Lynch for better depth at Safety with the injury to Tank Williams. They also have a couple rookie cornerbacks and Brandon Meriweather who all should see some time here and there throughout the season. As much talk as there is of age, I think many tend to overlook just how efficient Belichick is at putting players of youth in position to help the team for the current & future seasons. Are they always starters? No but they are often players who fill roles the first season or two and then blossom into a starter (See Ellis Hobbs, Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, etc.)

The offense is pretty much set as it was last year with a deeper crew at running back in case of injuries striking up like last season. The big question really is how the WR depth will play out with Chad Jackson, Jabar Gaffney, Matthew Slater, Ray Ventrone, and Sam Aiken. Sam Aiken and Kelley Washington will both probably be stand out special teamers but both could also see some time at the WR position during the season if Jackson and the two rookies don't impress much. They also have a fair amount of depth at TE with Watson and the signing of Marcus Pollard. They also still have David Thomas who's flashed sometimes but has struggled with injuries.

With their light schedule and their downright amazing efficiency, run or pass, I don't expect them to let up off the gas peddle. Any coach who would let up off the gas is a coach that I don't want in the Super Bowl. Belichick may be a jerk, arrogant & aloof, etc. but he knows how to coach and knows that you can never, ever score enough points in the NFL and we as fans know that too. While it may not happen often, every fan has seen a 14 point lead or in some cases, even a 21 point lead evaporate.

 

[cjack]

I'm hearing that the team learned from last year and will try to keep players healthier and freshier for the playoffs. I would expect the second and third stringers to be in the game a lot earlier in games this year. So if NE gets up 34-3, I doubt we will see them leave Brady and the A team in to make it 48-3. Too many guys were tired or got nicked up late in the season. They've already said they plan to pull Moss off the field to give him more rest during games (he was in on almost every play last year and was a decoy a lot of times). We'll see if the rest/pacing approach lasts. If they start off with however many wins and no losses again, they may ramp up for another shot at a perfect season. Of course, plenty of other teams will have a say in that.I'm also hearing that the defense should be better than last year and by a decent margin. Seymour is back to his old self, the front 7 as a unit got younger and faster, and the secondary supposedly will be better by being deeper than last year (although I still think losing Samuel will be tough). So I have been told the defense will be noticably better than last year.However, I'm hearing the offense is struggling some, due mostly to injuries and depth at the OL. Overall it sounds like the offense is a little out of sync for now, but we know that when they get it together they can be a machine. I think they like the addition of Jordan, as that gives them some additions options and plays to work with.

Thanks David, that's some great insight. Obviously, I would still expect Brady and Moss to rank at the top of their respective positions, but from that, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to approach last year's gaudy numbers. In which case, I probably won't take those guys at their ADP, but I might take a flyer on Jordan later in the draft.

I have been suggesting that even with health to the skill position guys, no health to the OL could be an issue. To bring people up to speed, I hear that NE is ready to roll with Maroney, Morris, Jordan, Faulk, and Evans at RB. That will leave Eckel and Green as free agents and perhaps then to the practice squad. They also appear to be ready to go with just two TEs . . . Watson and Thomas, leaving Marcus Pollard as the odd man out. Obviously that hasn't happened yet, so that's speculation at this point.In terms of the offense, I'm also hearing that the team is practiving a lot of shorter, underneath, screen type stuff to try to minimize the impact of the Giants "blueprint" to beating them (in addition to the OL injuries). The theory is that they will take less time, require less protection, and will keep Brady upright until the OL heals up. Sprinkle in some play action deep to Moss, and there you have it.Sadly (at least IMO), it looks like Gaffney is going to start the year as the team's WR2 and Chad Jackson on the field in 4 WR sets. It looks like Jackson needs more seasoning, but I still think at some point they will give him a fair amount of playing time and use Gaffney as the #4 guy.

Never really been a fan of Gaffney either, but it might give him some value. I'll have to look at his ADP, but he might be worth something early in the season before Jackson gets on the field more regularly.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

Sadly (at least IMO), it looks like Gaffney is going to start the year as the team's WR2 and Chad Jackson on the field in 4 WR sets. It looks like Jackson needs more seasoning, but I still think at some point they will give him a fair amount of playing time and use Gaffney as the #4 guy.

The way Gaffney finished last season it makes sense he would be on the field along with Moss and Welker.He's simply a more talented WR than Chad Jackson, I don't see this changing anytime soon.

 

[ImTheScientist]

you mean prove for the 3rd year in a row that they´re chokers (AFC Champ game, Super Bowl)? yeah, I think they´ll be able to prove that point.

 

[David Yudkin]

Never really been a fan of Gaffney either, but it might give him some value. I'll have to look at his ADP, but he might be worth something early in the season before Jackson gets on the field more regularly.

I still see Gaffney as a fantasy bench player at best unless you are in a bigger league (I play in a lot of 16-team leagues, so that changes things a lot).Last year the Stallworth/Gaffney duo ranked 49th and 64th, and with Watson and Thomas healthy, Faulk still a 50 catch guy, and Jordan added into the mix, I question whether NE can support another startable fantasy WR. Some how I doubt it. I had hopes that Jackson would be able to put up what Stallworth did, making him a borderline WR3 but that won't happen obviously if he is a part time player.

 

[Road Warriors]

Keeping an eye on the Patriots OL health heading into the big draft season will be very important, IMO. One of the keys to last season's early points bonanza was the amount of time Brady was given to find the open receiver. If the OL is banged up, the Patriots offense will go from top of the league to just "very good." From a fantasy perspective, the OL will determine if Brady, Moss et al live up to their draft slots.

 

[GregR_2]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

Early in the year they were blowing out playoff teams to the point that they were criticized for running up the score. There weren't many games in the latter half of the season where they were in a position they could consider running up the score. They were still overall the top team the 2nd half, but they weren't nearly on par with what they'd done to start it out.

To give an example for those too lazy to go look for themselves, Brady was on a pace to obliterate the passing TD mark by 10, with 6 games left to go. His passing TDs dropped off so much at the end of the season that he wouldn't have gotten the record if the Pats had rested their starters as other teams did. His passing TDs per game were nearly cut in half over the latter part of the season.

I don't see them coming out and playing with the same fire they had early on. That vengeance motivation isn't there. I think they are very capable of playing at the level they did the end of the season, which is still easily good enough Brady would be competing for QB1 and Moss for WR1.

 

[cjack]

Never really been a fan of Gaffney either, but it might give him some value. I'll have to look at his ADP, but he might be worth something early in the season before Jackson gets on the field more regularly.

I still see Gaffney as a fantasy bench player at best unless you are in a bigger league (I play in a lot of 16-team leagues, so that changes things a lot).Last year the Stallworth/Gaffney duo ranked 49th and 64th, and with Watson and Thomas healthy, Faulk still a 50 catch guy, and Jordan added into the mix, I question whether NE can support another startable fantasy WR. Some how I doubt it. I had hopes that Jackson would be able to put up what Stallworth did, making him a borderline WR3 but that won't happen obviously if he is a part time player.

I guess the question at it relates to Gaffney is whether the departure of Stallworth will mean that Gaffney sees the majority of those touches, as he did late in the year, or whether Jackson takes Stallworth's touches and more. I don't necessarily care if Gaffney is the WR2 all year, assuming you can get him late in the draft, but if he's a viable option early in the season I'll ride him out and wait for a younger guy to come on strong, or hit the free agent wire later in the season to replace him. I'm more interested in his PPG early in the year than I am in his final year end ranking. Looks like right now his ADP is around 159, as the 55th rated receiver. So, in my 11 team league, I'd have to take him somewhere in the 14th round or so as my number 5 or 6 receiver. I've got no particulary affinity or reason to draft him, but if he slips below his ADP and he's available in the 16th or 17th round, I'd probably pull the trigger, just for the hope that he's productive early in the season.

 

[PatsFanCT]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs. Early in the year they were blowing out playoff teams to the point that they were criticized for running up the score. There weren't many games in the latter half of the season where they were in a position they could consider running up the score. They were still overall the top team the 2nd half, but they weren't nearly on par with what they'd done to start it out.To give an example for those too lazy to go look for themselves, Brady was on a pace to obliterate the passing TD mark by 10, with 6 games left to go. His passing TDs dropped off so much at the end of the season that he wouldn't have gotten the record if the Pats had rested their starters as other teams did. His passing TDs per game were nearly cut in half over the latter part of the season.I don't see them coming out and playing with the same fire they had early on. That vengeance motivation isn't there. I think they are very capable of playing at the level they did the end of the season, which is still easily good enough Brady would be competing for QB1 and Moss for WR1.

I think Mother Nature had a say in the outcome of the latter part of the season. Six of their last seven games were played in the Northeast under inclement weather. This season, they should only have two cold weather games, unless an early winter arrives.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I'm hearing that the team learned from last year and will try to keep players healthier and freshier for the playoffs. I would expect the second and third stringers to be in the game a lot earlier in games this year. So if NE gets up 34-3, I doubt we will see them leave Brady and the A team in to make it 48-3. Too many guys were tired or got nicked up late in the season. They've already said they plan to pull Moss off the field to give him more rest during games (he was in on almost every play last year and was a decoy a lot of times). We'll see if the rest/pacing approach lasts. If they start off with however many wins and no losses again, they may ramp up for another shot at a perfect season. Of course, plenty of other teams will have a say in that.

I'm also hearing that the defense should be better than last year and by a decent margin. Seymour is back to his old self, the front 7 as a unit got younger and faster, and the secondary supposedly will be better by being deeper than last year (although I still think losing Samuel will be tough). So I have been told the defense will be noticably better than last year.

However, I'm hearing the offense is struggling some, due mostly to injuries and depth at the OL. Overall it sounds like the offense is a little out of sync for now, but we know that when they get it together they can be a machine. I think they like the addition of Jordan, as that gives them some additions options and plays to work with.

Thanks David, that's some great insight. Obviously, I would still expect Brady and Moss to rank at the top of their respective positions, but from that, I wouldn't necessarily expect them to approach last year's gaudy numbers. In which case, I probably won't take those guys at their ADP, but I might take a flyer on Jordan later in the draft.

I have been suggesting that even with health to the skill position guys, no health to the OL could be an issue. To bring people up to speed, I hear that NE is ready to roll with Maroney, Morris, Jordan, Faulk, and Evans at RB. That will leave Eckel and Green as free agents and perhaps then to the practice squad. They also appear to be ready to go with just two TEs . . . Watson and Thomas, leaving Marcus Pollard as the odd man out. Obviously that hasn't happened yet, so that's speculation at this point.In terms of the offense, I'm also hearing that the team is practiving a lot of shorter, underneath, screen type stuff to try to minimize the impact of the Giants "blueprint" to beating them (in addition to the OL injuries). The theory is that they will take less time, require less protection, and will keep Brady upright until the OL heals up. Sprinkle in some play action deep to Moss, and there you have it.

Sadly (at least IMO), it looks like Gaffney is going to start the year as the team's WR2 and Chad Jackson on the field in 4 WR sets. It looks like Jackson needs more seasoning, but I still think at some point they will give him a fair amount of playing time and use Gaffney as the #4 guy.

what odd about that is the Chargers did the same thing in the AFC champ game but BB changed the game plan, screened it to faulk and welker and ran maroney alot more in the 2nd half to win the game. why didnt BB do it in the big game? ill never know

 

[j3r3m3y]

you mean prove for the 3rd year in a row that they´re chokers (AFC Champ game, Super Bowl)? yeah, I think they´ll be able to prove that point.

As a Dolphin fan I am angered that you have put me in a position to defend the Pats, but how much success has your team had over the last 5 years? I bet the answer is "less than the Patriots". Bash a team while they are down, like my phins for example, but this schtick is getting old.On the topic at hand I think that losing the SB keeps the chip on their shoulder. They will come out wanting to humiliate anyone they can. The score will be run up at any opportunity.

 

[-baller]

By that I mean, will the Patriots do what they did last year and run up the score continually on undermanned opponents? I don't care one way or the other, but I'm curious to know because it will drive the fantasy fortunes of many of their players. Brady, Moss, Welker, and the rest had their record setting seasons because the Patriots continued to pile on points throughout the game whether it was necessary or not. Many of their games were blow-outs and the Patriots could have been content to bring in some more backups or step off the gas.

I think the most accurate description of this would be mass hysteria.very early on the pats became a hot topic hook for every talking head on espn who wanted viewers, and every online gossip columnist passing themselves off as sports journalist --- much the same way we are inundated by stories about britney spears for no apparent reason.

so, seeing as how there are a lot of espn viewers, and a hell of a lot of these viewers haven't followed the pats, or even watched any recent games, these manufactured opinions were adopted by the masses of espn viewers who had no informed opinions of their own, and then parroted back and forth to one another until it became 'common knowledge'.

seriously, when people start telling me they are reading some other guy's mind off the tv set they come off as more than a little crazy.

it was certainly obnoxious behavior, but I'll admit it also cracked me up a lot during the season to see some espn catchphrase, like 'BLUEPRINT!!!11' spontaneously repeated from a half dozen people daily as soon as it was cooked up by whichever writer/head wanted readers/viewers.

so, anyway, to answer your questions, I'm really pretty sure you're incorrect in most of your assumptions.

if you want to get any kind of objective view, take a look at the latter half of '06 and who they were throwing to.

and if you want a good laugh, check out that minny game and see if you can find some of the comments immediately following it.

oh, also, I don't know if you're actually interested in any kind of accurate info on the pats, but they do weekly radio interviews you can get here, if you want:

http://audio.weei.com/football/weei_patrio...day_channel.htm

as well as all yudkin posts.

 

[-baller]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea.

I would expect a rational team to continue playing good football, but they might want to balance the run and the pass so they're not so one dimensional come the Super Bowl. I would expect an NFL team might want to play some more back-ups when they're up by 28 points to get others some more game experience and to keep everyone fresh.Again, I don't have any axe to grind. If they can score 60, then score 60, but I don't always think that's in the best interest of the team.

I realize there are a couple million armchair coaches, and they most certainly didn't have much run/pass balance in the superbowl, but maybe you should take a look at the sd and jax playoff games before you extrapolate out a whole season from one game.as for their defense, since there was some discussion of it, if the pats have a crap defense, I'd be really curious to find out what they'd have to do to be considered 'good', because they looked pretty good to me last year, and I'd expect them to be better in '08.

 

[cjack]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea.

I would expect a rational team to continue playing good football, but they might want to balance the run and the pass so they're not so one dimensional come the Super Bowl. I would expect an NFL team might want to play some more back-ups when they're up by 28 points to get others some more game experience and to keep everyone fresh.Again, I don't have any axe to grind. If they can score 60, then score 60, but I don't always think that's in the best interest of the team.

I realize there are a couple million armchair coaches, and they most certainly didn't have much run/pass balance in the superbowl, but maybe you should take a look at the sd and jax playoff games before you extrapolate out a whole season from one game.as for their defense, since there was some discussion of it, if the pats have a crap defense, I'd be really curious to find out what they'd have to do to be considered 'good', because they looked pretty good to me last year, and I'd expect them to be better in '08.

It would seem you're talking to me, and I didn't say a thing about their defense other than whether it would be better or worse in '08.More importantly, why would I want to take a look at the SD and JAX playoff game? As far as I know, the SuperBowl is the game you want ultimately want to win, so if they didn't learn the proper balance of run versus pass by then, they failed. Who gives a #### what they did versus SD and JAX if they didn't learn how to use that in the Super Bowl? I'm not extrapolating anything, I'm just making judgement on the last and most important game of the year.As to your earlier post, exactly what assumptions did I make that were wrong? I'm simply trying to understand whether NE has the same motivation to pile on points in '08. Are you suggesting that they weren't trying to do that last year??

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I didn't read a word in this thread but the title but will back track and read afterwards so that my initial opinion doesn't change.

My initial thought is..........yes, they will try to prove themselves. I think a football team needs to prove themself each and every year. Every team is waiting to see JUST how good the Patriots will be compared to last year. The Patriots can't go into some mode thinking they should take part of the year off and then play hard at the end since they didn't achieve their goal last year..........they just need to come out like they did last year and take control.

Are they the team at the begining of last year or the team at the end?

 

[GregR_2]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea....

47% of a team's season is a "very small sample size?" Can't say I'd agree with that. I have a very hard time believing if an emerging fantasy player has the same kind of pattern in his final 9 games that you wouldn't consider that something worth incorporating in your projections for him the next year.

 

[twitch]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea.

...

47% of a team's season is a "very small sample size?" Can't say I'd agree with that. I have a very hard time believing if an emerging fantasy player has the same kind of pattern in his final 9 games that you wouldn't consider that something worth incorporating in your projections for him the next year.

I think the point he was making was that you cant generalize thoughts like they "lost some of that fire" based on how the #s bore out. You honestly think that team lost fire? Numbers aside. What in the world would lead you to believe that a team on a quest is going to lose its fire? Because Brady didnt throw for 5 or 6 TDs beyond the Buffalo game? He had 399yds wk. 14 vs. the Steelers. And 356yds wk 17 against the Giants. And vs. Jax in the playoffs, the guy was 26 for 28 slinging the ball. No fire? Where does that come from? The San Diego game? You obviously saw that game. SD probably had the best secondary in the league, and it was 0 degrees. That stadium was so cold they coulda used some of that "fire" that day.The overall passing #s definitely dipped. They play in the northeast, so obviously weather comes into play. They faced the Jets in a monsoon. They dealt with Baltimore on Monday night in freezing temperatures and 30mph winds. They were blowing Miami out 28-0 when the went completely flat in the 2nd half for whatever reason. But no "fire"? Id take exception to that concept, but not to Brady's #s falling off the pace. If they played all those games in a dome, maybe they wouldnt have lost that fire. And can we expect for him or the team to suffer the same kindof statisitical letdown? We dont know, but certainly its possible considering where they play. So, generally speaking, Id buy some of what youre selling. Just dont tell me my boys lost their fire. Didnt happen. Those other guys are getting well paid, too.

 

[Sabertooth]

By that I mean, will the Patriots do what they did last year and run up the score continually on undermanned opponents? I don't care one way or the other, but I'm curious to know because it will drive the fantasy fortunes of many of their players. Brady, Moss, Welker, and the rest had their record setting seasons because the Patriots continued to pile on points throughout the game whether it was necessary or not. Many of their games were blow-outs and the Patriots could have been content to bring in some more backups or step off the gas.

If they don't run up the score like they did last year, then the crazy stats from Brady and Moss will come back to earth. Also, since their schedule rates so easy this year, that could make it easier to run up the score, or if Belichek has eaten any humble pie, it might mean the Patriots' starters can rest from the 3rd quarter on.

Does Belichek still have something to prove, particularly since they lost the Super Bowl, or is he content to eat up the clock and give his back-ups a little more playing time when the game is out of hand?

I just think a lot of the Patriots' player fantasy success last year was driven by their need to score 38 points or whatever when the opponent only scored 10. If that continues, draft Brady and Moss early. If not, let someone else take them that high. What's the consensus?

This seems about as likely as Canada taking over Mexico.

 

[GregR_2]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea.

...

47% of a team's season is a "very small sample size?" Can't say I'd agree with that. I have a very hard time believing if an emerging fantasy player has the same kind of pattern in his final 9 games that you wouldn't consider that something worth incorporating in your projections for him the next year.

I think the point he was making was that you cant generalize thoughts like they "lost some of that fire" based on how the #s bore out. You honestly think that team lost fire? Numbers aside. What in the world would lead you to believe that a team on a quest is going to lose its fire? Because Brady didnt throw for 5 or 6 TDs beyond the Buffalo game? He had 399yds wk. 14 vs. the Steelers. And 356yds wk 17 against the Giants. And vs. Jax in the playoffs, the guy was 26 for 28 slinging the ball. No fire? Where does that come from? The San Diego game? You obviously saw that game. SD probably had the best secondary in the league, and it was 0 degrees. That stadium was so cold they coulda used some of that "fire" that day.The overall passing #s definitely dipped. They play in the northeast, so obviously weather comes into play. They faced the Jets in a monsoon. They dealt with Baltimore on Monday night in freezing temperatures and 30mph winds. They were blowing Miami out 28-0 when the went completely flat in the 2nd half for whatever reason. But no "fire"? Id take exception to that concept, but not to Brady's #s falling off the pace. If they played all those games in a dome, maybe they wouldnt have lost that fire. And can we expect for him or the team to suffer the same kindof statisitical letdown? We dont know, but certainly its possible considering where they play. So, generally speaking, Id buy some of what youre selling. Just dont tell me my boys lost their fire. Didnt happen. Those other guys are getting well paid, too.

They went through week after week of news stories bestowing superlatives, debates if they are the greatest NFL team of all time, countless interviews about perfect seasons and the magnitude of their season to date.Do you really think it's inconceivable to suggest that over time this would make it hard to keep the sharp edge on any motivation, and especially their... what did you call it... their "air of vengeance" over Spygate? I think human nature is that it would hard to hold that kind of motivation for long. And especially with everything going on around you giving you a reason to no longer be upset.

The players kept talking about how Belichick kept trying to knock them down a peg and keep them humble. That's pretty indicative to me that Belichick recognized the effect that too much praise and too many superlatives can have on people's motivation. That's exactly what I was speaking to.

Preparing for a draft and an auction this weekend so I haven't had time to go read all the weather reports for the season, but my recollection is they did have a game or two of bad weather, but most of their games the last half of the season it was just moderately cold (i.e. around freezing, but not -5), but otherwise not bad weather. If someone with more time right now wants to go through and collect that for the whole season and playoffs, so we can see how much it correlates with the drop off, I'd love to see it.

 

[Jason Wood]

Last year tarnished their legacy. It's a lot easier to argue "best ever" when you have an unblemished SB record. I can't imagine anyone involved with that team is happy to have an L in that column now. They need another ring or two before they'll get to the place in history they all seem to want so badly.

 

[-baller]

I think they came out with a chip on their shoulder, but along the way lost some of that fire. Check out Brady's numbers and their margin of victory in the first 10 games, compared to the last 6 and the playoffs.

I think this is one of the biggest pitfalls in any kind of football analysis - fantasy, or otherwise.projecting off very small sample sizes is a really bad idea....

47% of a team's season is a "very small sample size?"

yes.luckily for me, twitch did all the typing, and did it better than I would have (thx, twitch).I already did a game by game list in another thread to address a similar post, and I don't feel like doing it again, but you can search for it.

 

[brednbuddah]

you mean prove for the 3rd year in a row that they´re chokers (AFC Champ game, Super Bowl)? yeah, I think they´ll be able to prove that point.

As a Dolphin fan I am angered that you have put me in a position to defend the Pats, but how much success has your team had over the last 5 years? I bet the answer is "less than the Patriots". Bash a team while they are down, like my phins for example, but this schtick is getting old.On the topic at hand I think that losing the SB keeps the chip on their shoulder. They will come out wanting to humiliate anyone they can. The score will be run up at any opportunity.

you're missing the point. you can now legitimately say about the Pats, "What have you done for me lately?"sure they won back-to-back super bowls, nice job. however, they currently have a running string of two of the most epic back-to-back collapses in NFL history. not really the stuff dynasties are made of.

 

[twitch]

you mean prove for the 3rd year in a row that they´re chokers (AFC Champ game, Super Bowl)? yeah, I think they´ll be able to prove that point.

As a Dolphin fan I am angered that you have put me in a position to defend the Pats, but how much success has your team had over the last 5 years? I bet the answer is "less than the Patriots". Bash a team while they are down, like my phins for example, but this schtick is getting old.On the topic at hand I think that losing the SB keeps the chip on their shoulder. They will come out wanting to humiliate anyone they can. The score will be run up at any opportunity.

you're missing the point. you can now legitimately say about the Pats, "What have you done for me lately?"sure they won back-to-back super bowls, nice job. however, they currently have a running string of two of the most epic back-to-back collapses in NFL history. not really the stuff dynasties are made of.

So, if a team doesnt win it all, theyve basically done nothing? That's gonna bother some people. NE's won 5 playoff games in the past 3 years. Do I wish one of those were a Superbowl? Absolutely. But do those playoff wins mean squat because they werent? Ya know when youre good, you tend to win big games. Which lead to even bigger games. And you run the risk of losing some of those even bigger games. You cant win 'em all. But to even be in that position, youve gotta be pretty friggin' good. You can respect that or you can be a knucklehead.

 

[brednbuddah]

Let me put this in perspective for you.

The Yankees have made the playoffs every year for the past 13 years. That's pretty "friggin'" good right? yet, all I hear as a Yankees fan is how thet haven't won a world series since 00, had the most epic playoff choke in MLB history and how they just can't beat the Angels in the playoffs.

It's all true. What have you done for me lately?

 

[Road Warriors]

Let me put this in perspective for you.The Yankees have made the playoffs every year for the past 13 years. That's pretty "friggin'" good right? yet, all I hear as a Yankees fan is how thet haven't won a world series since 00, had the most epic playoff choke in MLB history and how they just can't beat the Angels in the playoffs.It's all true. What have you done for me lately?

No need to pass on your bitter Yankee fan experiences.

 

[pollardsvision]

sometimes i wonder if the patriots might try a new wrinkle this year. (i'm even more convinced as it looks like the general consensus is that they will run up the score again).

i wouldn't be shocked if the patriots decide start kneeling down with about 6 minutes to go in a few games this year.

everybody whined last year about the patriots playing full games, but really, is it a slap in the face to respect an opponent enough to think you'll need all the points you can get?

i can't think of a better way to disrespect your opponent than kneeling down midway through the 4th.

obviously, very unlikely, but it would be fun to see.

 

[brednbuddah]

Let me put this in perspective for you.The Yankees have made the playoffs every year for the past 13 years. That's pretty "friggin'" good right? yet, all I hear as a Yankees fan is how thet haven't won a world series since 00, had the most epic playoff choke in MLB history and how they just can't beat the Angels in the playoffs.It's all true. What have you done for me lately?

No need to pass on your bitter Yankee fan experiences.

Is it that obvious?

 

[-baller]

sometimes i wonder if the patriots might try a new wrinkle this year. (i'm even more convinced as it looks like the general consensus is that they will run up the score again).i wouldn't be shocked if the patriots decide start kneeling down with about 6 minutes to go in a few games this year. everybody whined last year about the patriots playing full games, but really, is it a slap in the face to respect an opponent enough to think you'll need all the points you can get?i can't think of a better way to disrespect your opponent than kneeling down midway through the 4th. obviously, very unlikely, but it would be fun to see.

*adds points for kneeling to league settings*