cstu
Footballguy
The Loser's Curse
The main example in this article - the Eli/Rivers trade - doesn't hold up as well now that Manning has a couple of SB rings, but I believe the basic premise is valid - that the top picks in the draft are over-valued especially when the contracts we so large. For this reason the worst teams were rarely able to trade down due to their perceived value of the picks and ended up worse over time due to players who disappointed.
However, with the current rookie wage scale I believe a couple of things have happened:
- While the top picks are still over-valued in terms of overall value (see the RGIII trade) the negative effect due to the player not working out is much less because the contracts are smaller. With free agency teams can overcome a loss of picks and sign good players, albeit at a higher price relative to rookie contracts.
- Bad teams with picks in top 10 are longer stuck with an albatross around their neck if a player is a bust. For example, compare the last two QB's draft 1st overall - Bradford and Newton. Bradford received a 6 year/$78M contract with $50M guaranteed while Newton received a 4 year/$22M contract. For the Rams this means they are stuck with Bradford for at least 4 years and then they are stuck with a $10M cap hit if they wanted to cut him. With Newton's contract even if he had not played well they would only be looking at having to keep an over-paid backup QB for a few years. It would be much easier for the Panthers to overcome their busted #1 pick than for the Rams.
Nothing can overcome bad drafting but I feel that this will have a tremendous impact on the ability of bad teams to turn their teams around. As the top picks are now worth more relative to the past it has become easier for teams with high draft to trade down in order to increase their odds of hitting on good players.
Thoughts?
The main example in this article - the Eli/Rivers trade - doesn't hold up as well now that Manning has a couple of SB rings, but I believe the basic premise is valid - that the top picks in the draft are over-valued especially when the contracts we so large. For this reason the worst teams were rarely able to trade down due to their perceived value of the picks and ended up worse over time due to players who disappointed.
However, with the current rookie wage scale I believe a couple of things have happened:
- While the top picks are still over-valued in terms of overall value (see the RGIII trade) the negative effect due to the player not working out is much less because the contracts are smaller. With free agency teams can overcome a loss of picks and sign good players, albeit at a higher price relative to rookie contracts.
- Bad teams with picks in top 10 are longer stuck with an albatross around their neck if a player is a bust. For example, compare the last two QB's draft 1st overall - Bradford and Newton. Bradford received a 6 year/$78M contract with $50M guaranteed while Newton received a 4 year/$22M contract. For the Rams this means they are stuck with Bradford for at least 4 years and then they are stuck with a $10M cap hit if they wanted to cut him. With Newton's contract even if he had not played well they would only be looking at having to keep an over-paid backup QB for a few years. It would be much easier for the Panthers to overcome their busted #1 pick than for the Rams.
Nothing can overcome bad drafting but I feel that this will have a tremendous impact on the ability of bad teams to turn their teams around. As the top picks are now worth more relative to the past it has become easier for teams with high draft to trade down in order to increase their odds of hitting on good players.
Thoughts?
