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Willie Parker 2008 Projections (1 Viewer)

ArlingtonTerp

ArlingtonTerp

Footballguy
In 2007, he had 321 caries for 1316 (4.1 ypc) with 2 tds, and 23 recs for 164 yds, and he lost 3 fumbles. If you were to take a stab at a projection for 2008 now, what would you put forth?

He seems to have an injury that heals well, and in time for summer practice. The Pittsburgh running game was unimpressive this year in my opinion, and it's not just because they were passing more. I know Parker was the league leading rusher for many weeks, but his ypc was well below his career average, and they couldn't run in tough spots. I'm not that optimistic it is going to improve significantly. The passing game in Pittsburgh should be at least as strong in 2008 as in 2007 though. I've been a pretty big fan of Parker for the last few years (owning him in my league), but I'm starting to sour a bit. He doesn't look as quick, although he obviously is still fast. Perhaps that's just the fact that the blocking isn't as good that makes him look worse, but the end result is the same. The 2 TDs is an unbelievable stat. It is almost impossible for a guy to pick up almost 1500 total yards and only get 2 TDs. That won't be replicated anytime soon. However I'm thinking very modest TDs (for a 1000+ rusher) going forward, because it wasn't just a matter of not running in the redzone. It was being clearly less effective for Pittsburgh running down there than throwing (which lead to more throwing). Parker also got pulled sometimes, and may continued to be, on goal-line carries. I feel that Parker's rushing carries go down a bit next year, as Pittsburgh looks to mix it up (possibly giving some other back more carries) and passes more (not just in the red zone). The defense seems to be slipping too; they may well be in some shootouts.

290/1200/6 tds rushing (4.1 ypc), 200/1 td receiving, 3 FL

I must have him pretty low compared to most everyone, given how highly valued he still seems to be on preliminary mocks and discussions and such. People are still considering him a late first/early second pick. The numbers I put forth aren't terrible though. They're almost where McGahee ended up this year (so an improvement for Parker). But, to put it in perspective, I probably would have his teammate Santonio Holmes outscoring Parker (even in no PPR), if I were to do projections now.

 
ArlingtonTerp said:
In 2007, he had 321 caries for 1316 (4.1 ypc) with 2 tds, and 23 recs for 164 yds, and he lost 3 fumbles. If you were to take a stab at a projection for 2008 now, what would you put forth?He seems to have an injury that heals well, and in time for summer practice. The Pittsburgh running game was unimpressive this year in my opinion, and it's not just because they were passing more. I know Parker was the league leading rusher for many weeks, but his ypc was well below his career average, and they couldn't run in tough spots. I'm not that optimistic it is going to improve significantly. The passing game in Pittsburgh should be at least as strong in 2008 as in 2007 though. I've been a pretty big fan of Parker for the last few years (owning him in my league), but I'm starting to sour a bit. He doesn't look as quick, although he obviously is still fast. Perhaps that's just the fact that the blocking isn't as good that makes him look worse, but the end result is the same. The 2 TDs is an unbelievable stat. It is almost impossible for a guy to pick up almost 1500 total yards and only get 2 TDs. That won't be replicated anytime soon. However I'm thinking very modest TDs (for a 1000+ rusher) going forward, because it wasn't just a matter of not running in the redzone. It was being clearly less effective for Pittsburgh running down there than throwing (which lead to more throwing). Parker also got pulled sometimes, and may continued to be, on goal-line carries. I feel that Parker's rushing carries go down a bit next year, as Pittsburgh looks to mix it up (possibly giving some other back more carries) and passes more (not just in the red zone). The defense seems to be slipping too; they may well be in some shootouts. 290/1200/6 tds rushing (4.1 ypc), 200/1 td receiving, 3 FLI must have him pretty low compared to most everyone, given how highly valued he still seems to be on preliminary mocks and discussions and such. People are still considering him a late first/early second pick. The numbers I put forth aren't terrible though. They're almost where McGahee ended up this year (so an improvement for Parker). But, to put it in perspective, I probably would have his teammate Santonio Holmes outscoring Parker (even in no PPR), if I were to do projections now.
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IMO, I'd put him a little higher...maybe 315/1500 totals yds/8 total tds. Of course, I haven't taken into account S.O.S. or any changes - so this is just a raw, meaningless estimate.FWP was FBG's darling this previous year - I'm just glad I didn't have the 5th or 6th pick or he would have been mine. The change in coaching staff (including Russ Grimm) figured to definitely affect his stats. Another year under his belt with the current staff, and one would assume his numbers to increase in '08.
 
I had one of those mid round picks in one league and ended up with Parker. But what can I say, if it were not he, it would have been Gore, LJ or some other bust.

 
He looks like a good Buy Low candidate for next year.

He's gotta score more than 2 TDs, even with Davenport getting the GL carries.

 
Is everyone assuming Faneca is gone? He seems to me to be the most important running OL on that team. It would be tough to make predictions if we don't know who is taking his spot, should he leave.

 
phthalatemagic said:
Is everyone assuming Faneca is gone? He seems to me to be the most important running OL on that team. It would be tough to make predictions if we don't know who is taking his spot, should he leave.
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Faneca is most likely gone and a major retooling is in order. I am betting the Steelers draft or sign a FA center and slide Mahan to guard to fill Faneca's spot -- a scary prospect indeed. They could also use help at OT because of Marvel Smith's bad back and Willie Colon's poor play (pretty sure second in the league in sacks allowed).
 
What did Curtis Martin do after his 2-TD campaign?

2003 30 NYJ RB 16 16 323 1308 2 56 4.0 81.8 20.2

2004 31 NYJ RB 16 16 371 1697 12 25 4.6 106.1 23.2

 
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Steeler OLine could loose 1 or 2 starters - You can't pencil FWP in for 1500 with the injury and OLine situation in limbo

 
I would expect a few more TDs, but less yards as the line (which wasn't very good this year) will be worse next year. Holmes and Miller are entering their "magic" 3rd year, Ben has proven to be a top-tier QB and for the 3rd year in a row I'm hoping the Steelers take a look at a bigger back to at least compliment Parker, if not compete for the starter spot. As a Steeler fan, I've never been real impressed w/ Parker and would like them to try replacing him but this may not be the year as both sides of the line demand more attention as well as the secondary. Add to the RB mix - G.Russell who now has a year in the league and a whole offseason to shape up. He missed a year due to academic eligibility but was concidered a top prospect before he supposedly got a little lazy in his season off and didn't impress in individual workouts (ala Big Mike Williams). Hardly a ringing endorsement, but if he is one of those guys that can screw his head on straight, could compete for playing time.

I'm expecting a drop in carries to 290-315. Yards to be around 12-1300 and TDs around 6-7. PPR never expected much from him here, and I don't see that changing much either. No, you can't predict injury but, he has managed to stay healthy for 3 years which is pretty good for a smallish back and very good when you have watched his contact increase every year.

 
I would suspect, depending on what happens with the o-line, you can pencil him in for 1200/2td rushing, 180 rec 1 td. Good play in yardage leagues

 
Gopher State said:
I would suspect, depending on what happens with the o-line, you can pencil him in for 1200/2td rushing, 180 rec 1 td. Good play in yardage leagues
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No offense, but it really makes little sense to predict 1200 yds rushing and only 2 TDs. His TD #'s this year are so far from the norm that it's absurd. TDs, because of their low "sample #" can be highly variable for different reasons, but will still usually come with larger yardage totals. It just makes little sense to "predict" just 2 TDs from any RB (or WR for that matter) that is a starter and gets significant touches and yardage.
 
gianmarco said:
Gopher State said:
I would suspect, depending on what happens with the o-line, you can pencil him in for 1200/2td rushing, 180 rec 1 td. Good play in yardage leagues
Click to expand...
No offense, but it really makes little sense to predict 1200 yds rushing and only 2 TDs. His TD #'s this year are so far from the norm that it's absurd. TDs, because of their low "sample #" can be highly variable for different reasons, but will still usually come with larger yardage totals. It just makes little sense to "predict" just 2 TDs from any RB (or WR for that matter) that is a starter and gets significant touches and yardage.
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With Arians here, TE's are just used too much in the redzone to consider FWP doing anything significant in the td category.
 
Lets face the facts. The Steelers O-line is bottom 5 now. Ben led the league in getting sacked and over 50% of the snaps someone was in position to make a play for a loss. They need more than 1-2 players and at this point i dont think losing 2 startes would make a difference., I guy going untouched is a guy going untouched at the QB. And im talking 370lb guys. I dont see how their PS could have been worse the last 5-6 weeks. If they focus on the o line all steelers would be an upgrade over this season and WP could be a steal..

 
jasonbay said:
gianmarco said:
Gopher State said:
I would suspect, depending on what happens with the o-line, you can pencil him in for 1200/2td rushing, 180 rec 1 td. Good play in yardage leagues
Click to expand...
No offense, but it really makes little sense to predict 1200 yds rushing and only 2 TDs. His TD #'s this year are so far from the norm that it's absurd. TDs, because of their low "sample #" can be highly variable for different reasons, but will still usually come with larger yardage totals. It just makes little sense to "predict" just 2 TDs from any RB (or WR for that matter) that is a starter and gets significant touches and yardage.
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With Arians here, TE's are just used too much in the redzone to consider FWP doing anything significant in the td category.
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There's a difference between "significant" and "2 TDs". I'm in no way saying he's going to score a significant # of TDs. I think it was inevitable that we would see a decline in his TDs from the previous year. However, 2 TDs is just absurdly too low to predict for Parker, much less for just about any RB seeing significant playing time/touches. That's an average of 1 TD in 8 games. Again, saying he'll get 10 TDs is probably a bit much given the current state (some loss of GL touches, poor O-Line play, increase passing, etc.), but there are a few #'s in between 2 and 10 that can be selected. Put another way, pretty much any player worth making projections for should be predicted for >2 TDs. You do realize that 57 players scored 3 or more rushing TDs this year, right? 39 players scored 4 or more TDs. Even at the WR/TE position, 97 players scored 3 or more TDs during the year.
 
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There's a difference between "significant" and "2 TDs". I'm in no way saying he's going to score a significant # of TDs. I think it was inevitable that we would see a decline in his TDs from the previous year. However, 2 TDs is just absurdly too low to predict for Parker, much less for just about any RB seeing significant playing time/touches. That's an average of 1 TD in 8 games. Again, saying he'll get 10 TDs is probably a bit much given the current state (some loss of GL touches, poor O-Line play, increase passing, etc.), but there are a few #'s in between 2 and 10 that can be selected.

Put another way, pretty much any player worth making projections for should be predicted for >2 TDs. You do realize that 57 players scored 3 or more rushing TDs this year, right? 39 players scored 4 or more TDs. Even at the WR/TE position, 97 players scored 3 or more TDs during the year.
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No I did not but then again did I care? answer would be no... I think your under the assumption that I'm agreeing with 2 td prediction. But with Faneca good as gone, our line will be in shambles. I think there is no way he gets 10, If I were to make a guess at this point and time I'd say 6.
 
jasonbay said:
There's a difference between "significant" and "2 TDs". I'm in no way saying he's going to score a significant # of TDs. I think it was inevitable that we would see a decline in his TDs from the previous year. However, 2 TDs is just absurdly too low to predict for Parker, much less for just about any RB seeing significant playing time/touches. That's an average of 1 TD in 8 games. Again, saying he'll get 10 TDs is probably a bit much given the current state (some loss of GL touches, poor O-Line play, increase passing, etc.), but there are a few #'s in between 2 and 10 that can be selected.

Put another way, pretty much any player worth making projections for should be predicted for >2 TDs. You do realize that 57 players scored 3 or more rushing TDs this year, right? 39 players scored 4 or more TDs. Even at the WR/TE position, 97 players scored 3 or more TDs during the year.
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No I did not but then again did I care? answer would be no... I think your under the assumption that I'm agreeing with 2 td prediction. But with Faneca good as gone, our line will be in shambles. I think there is no way he gets 10, If I were to make a guess at this point and time I'd say 6.
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Well, since you initially responded to MY post where I simply stated that 2 TDs were a pretty poor prediction, I was under the assumption that you agreed with the 2 TD prediction. I agree with you that I doubt he gets 10 and that the 6-7 range is a pretty safe estimate.
 
BigA said:
anyone thnk he's a keeper? 10 team 4 keeps per team? you dont have to keep 4 btw.
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He certainly could be. Obviously it depends on your starting config options, rules, and other keeper options. In 12-team leagues, his initial draft position seems to be late first/early second based on what I've seen so far in mocks and lists. In my 12-owner league, he's a borderline keeper for me even though we keep six, but it is all about the situation. In most leagues where you must start 2 RBs he would be worthy of one of the top 40 picks for sure, even at my projections.
 
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