Word from Indy (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

Also Vikes looking at WRs.

http://draftheadquarters.com/blog/?p=55

Draft News

February 23rd, 2008 Shawn

Word on the street in Indianapolis is that the Dolphins are going to go with Chris Long from Virginia if they can’t somehow trade down. However, their are going to try very hard to trade out of the top spot.

- The Vikings have Limas Sweed and Malcolm Kelly as potential targets at #17 overall, however they are worried about Sweed’s wrist injury. If they don’t go with either of those two, they are expected to go with a defensive end.

Doesn't appear the Phins will be able to trade the top pick.http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/footbal...story?track=rss

Top draft pick may be too expensive to trade

By Harvey Fialkov | South Florida Sun-Sentinel

February 23, 2008

INDIANAPOLIS - While one team source said that the Dolphins would, "love to" trade out of the overall first selection of April's draft, the unprecedented signing bonus that teams must pay that pick makes trading quite difficult...

... "Seven or eight years ago there might have been a huge market for that pick," said Colts General Manager Bill Polian. "Now, I'm not sure there is quite the market there used to be, and it's because of the money.

... Polian said that 50 percent of the top picks over the past 25 years have been busts.

Good point by Polian in pointing out the bust factor which is a multiplyer of risk for the top pick. One other name being mentioned for the top pick is Matt Ryan.

... All eyes on Ryan

Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, the projected No. 1 pick by most mock drafts,

... Ryan was excited about the possibility of playing for the Dolphins.

"It would be unbelievable," Ryan said. "For me, it would be really fun to go play in Miami. It would be a great situation for a quarterback, and it may end up working out."

http://www.miamiherald.com/616/story/427084.html

NFL SCOUTING COMBINE

Who's No. 1? Dolphins hoping to find out

The Dolphins, who have the top pick, will look at a number of players at the combine in the hopes of narrowing their options.

... ''If they don't feel like [Dolphins quarterback] John Beck is the right guy moving forward with, then you look at top quarterback prospect Matt Ryan,'' ESPN Draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. ``I think Matt Ryan is the kind of quarterback that would fit what Bill Parcells wants.''

... other prospects, who also will be attending this week's combine: Virginia defensive end Chris Long, LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, Southern California nose guard Sedrick Ellis and Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long.

''All of them have grades right in there with Matt Ryan,'' Kiper said. ``There are six guys that are a cut above the rest, and those are the six.''

So how do those six players fit into the Dolphins' potential needs? For now, McFadden is the only player who would be a long shot to get drafted first overall -- unless Miami traded the pick to a team like Atlanta or Dallas.

Even before Parcells arrived in Miami, he had told co-workers during his stint at ESPN that he wasn't overly excited by McFadden's prospects as a pro...

Go to links for more details.

 

[Balco]

I still think the # 1 should be Jake Long, but you can't go wrong with Chris Long either. I think he works best as a 4-3 end (reminds me a ton of Aaron Kampman) but he would do well as a 3-4 end as well.

 

[jurb26]

Jake Long....

 

[FUBAR]

I still think the # 1 should be Jake Long, but you can't go wrong with Chris Long either. I think he works best as a 4-3 end (reminds me a ton of Aaron Kampman) but he would do well as a 3-4 end as well.

Agreed. 1 - 2 should be Long - Long.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

... Polian said that 50 percent of the top picks over the past 25 years have been busts.

Good point by Polian in pointing out the bust factor which is a multiplyer of risk for the top pick. One other name being mentioned for the top pick is Matt Ryan.

What's the bust rate of say, a late 1st round pick?

 

[FUBAR]

... Polian said that 50 percent of the top picks over the past 25 years have been busts.

Good point by Polian in pointing out the bust factor which is a multiplyer of risk for the top pick. One other name being mentioned for the top pick is Matt Ryan.

What's the bust rate of say, a late 1st round pick?

2007 1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State

2006 1 30 Joseph Addai RB Louisiana State

2005 1 29 Marlin Jackson DB Michigan

2004 No firsts, top pick: 2 44 Bob Sanders DB Iowa

2003 1 24 Dallas Clark TE Iowa

2002 1 11 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse

2001 1 30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami (Fla.)

2000 1 28 Rob Morris LB Brigham Young

1999 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami (Fla.)

1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee

If anyone has a right to talk about busts in the first, it's Polian. Since he was hired, the colts have had one bad first round pick. Arguably, nobody has gotten more out of his drafts than Polian.

 

[RustyFA]

I wouldn't be susprised to see the Colts go with another Iowa product-Charles Godfrey CB-with their 2nd rounder this year. He is going to be a decent to good #2 CB for a while in the NFL.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

It's getting to where NO ONE wants the top pick due to the ridic money thrown at these lottery winners.

 

[Bri]

His buddy coached him and probably says he's excellent.....this wasn't hard to imagine happenning.

 

[delusional]

Really hoping Sweed or Kelly go before 19. This would leave Eagles with McLovin

 

[djcolts]

... Polian said that 50 percent of the top picks over the past 25 years have been busts.

Good point by Polian in pointing out the bust factor which is a multiplyer of risk for the top pick. One other name being mentioned for the top pick is Matt Ryan.

What's the bust rate of say, a late 1st round pick?

2007 1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State

2006 1 30 Joseph Addai RB Louisiana State

2005 1 29 Marlin Jackson DB Michigan

2004 No firsts, top pick: 2 44 Bob Sanders DB Iowa

2003 1 24 Dallas Clark TE Iowa

2002 1 11 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse

2001 1 30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami (Fla.)

2000 1 28 Rob Morris LB Brigham Young

1999 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami (Fla.)

1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee

If anyone has a right to talk about busts in the first, it's Polian. Since he was hired, the colts have had one bad first round pick. Arguably, nobody has gotten more out of his drafts than Polian.

And Morris, for a "bad pick" - was a starter last year before he was hurt - and a key part of the Super Bowl winning team in 2006/7.

 

[Bri]

If anyone has a right to talk about busts in the first, it's Polian. Since he was hired, the colts have had one bad first round pick. Arguably, nobody has gotten more out of his drafts than Polian.

First rounders-very good. Rest is up for discussion though.I can't think of a GM that hasn't had his share of stinkers.

 

[a_rackowski]

I wonder how far he would want to move down. Perhaps the Packers could package up Aaron Rodgers, KGB, and #30 for the #1 overall. Seems a bit far fetched maybe but Thompson has mentioned that trading up this year is a possiblity and giving the Phins a pass rusher, a QB who is ready for a starting Gig, and a pick later in the draft just might be sweet enough. The Pack has the money for the top pick.

 

[JAA]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

 

[stbugs]

I don't quite get why football doesn't do something along the lines of baseball. Signability is a huge thing in MLB drafts. Often when a top, top pick in baseball is looking for outrageous money, they will draft someone who might go a few picks later if they can work out a better $$$ deal.

If I were the Dolphins and say someone like Sedrick Ellis was a consensus #6 pick and he was very close in their rankings to the #1 guy, I would go talk to him and say, listen you are our #6 ranked player, but we don't want to pay $30 million in guarantees for a player. You are slotted at about #6, how about we pay you #5 money and pick you 1st? Get the deal inked before the draft and there you go. Save yourself probably 10-15 million in guarantees and get a guy you think is almost as good as the guy you would be forced to take.

Now, if that did happen, it would royally screw up the next team. Let's say they then take the "Reggie Bush" consensus top guy. They are going to have an agent arguing that they should get #1 money.

 

[JAA]

I don't quite get why football doesn't do something along the lines of baseball. Signability is a huge thing in MLB drafts. Often when a top, top pick in baseball is looking for outrageous money, they will draft someone who might go a few picks later if they can work out a better $$$ deal.If I were the Dolphins and say someone like Sedrick Ellis was a consensus #6 pick and he was very close in their rankings to the #1 guy, I would go talk to him and say, listen you are our #6 ranked player, but we don't want to pay $30 million in guarantees for a player. You are slotted at about #6, how about we pay you #5 money and pick you 1st? Get the deal inked before the draft and there you go. Save yourself probably 10-15 million in guarantees and get a guy you think is almost as good as the guy you would be forced to take.Now, if that did happen, it would royally screw up the next team. Let's say they then take the "Reggie Bush" consensus top guy. They are going to have an agent arguing that they should get #1 money.

This is what Rivers agent tried to do when he signed "We feel Rivers was the first player taken in the draft".I agree with your point and dont understand it either. The last player I can remember to be inked considerably before the draft was Palmer. Mario was 2 years ago but I think it was a day or 2 before the draft.

 

[fruity pebbles]

sets the Rams up perfectly to take Jake Long, best player and their biggest need.

 

[massraider]

sets the Rams up perfectly to take Jake Long, best player and their biggest need.

God, I hope so. Drops a D-lineman to the Raiders, and keeps J. Long from the Chiefs.

 

[Abraham]

... Polian said that 50 percent of the top picks over the past 25 years have been busts.

Good point by Polian in pointing out the bust factor which is a multiplyer of risk for the top pick. One other name being mentioned for the top pick is Matt Ryan.

What's the bust rate of say, a late 1st round pick?

2007 1 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State

2006 1 30 Joseph Addai RB Louisiana State

2005 1 29 Marlin Jackson DB Michigan

2004 No firsts, top pick: 2 44 Bob Sanders DB Iowa

2003 1 24 Dallas Clark TE Iowa

2002 1 11 Dwight Freeney DE Syracuse

2001 1 30 Reggie Wayne WR Miami (Fla.)

2000 1 28 Rob Morris LB Brigham Young

1999 1 4 Edgerrin James RB Miami (Fla.)

1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB Tennessee

If anyone has a right to talk about busts in the first, it's Polian. Since he was hired, the colts have had one bad first round pick. Arguably, nobody has gotten more out of his drafts than Polian.

And Morris, for a "bad pick" - was a starter last year before he was hurt - and a key part of the Super Bowl winning team in 2006/7.

That's what I was going to say - Morris isn't a star, but he's not terrible by a long shot.

 

[Rodeojones]

Really hoping Sweed or Kelly go before 19. This would leave Eagles with McLovin

Your name says it all....

 

[bosoxs45]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

:ACChater:

 

[Andy Dufresne]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

Um. Yeah. And he was pretty good.

 

[Workhorse]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

Um. Yeah. And he was pretty good.

He was pretty good on a team filled with (in some cases, significantly) below average talent. If you put even decent D1 skill players around Ryan the past couple of seasons, he would have looked like a superstar.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

Um. Yeah. And he was pretty good.

He was pretty good on a team filled with (in some cases, significantly) below average talent. If you put even decent D1 skill players around Ryan the past couple of seasons, he would have looked like a superstar.

Wholeheartedly agree. It reminds me of Drew Bledsoe at Washington St. I wonder if it reminds Tuna of the same.

 

[Workhorse]

No chance Ryan goes #1. Did these people not watch him play in college?

Um. Yeah. And he was pretty good.

He was pretty good on a team filled with (in some cases, significantly) below average talent. If you put even decent D1 skill players around Ryan the past couple of seasons, he would have looked like a superstar.

Wholeheartedly agree. It reminds me of Drew Bledsoe at Washington St. I wonder if it reminds Tuna of the same.

In terms of arm strength, I'd give Bledsoe the nod.In terms of athleticism and pocket escapability, gotta go with Ryan. Both guys do have the same flaw of trying to force balls into spaces that aren't open and trying too hard to make plays that just aren't there.