David Yudkin
Footballguy
Yeah, I guess you did get a work out there.I was lifting in the OP
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Workshop: "The Early Rounds" (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
LawFitz
Footballguy
Oops, my bad. Thank you too David.Yeah, I guess you did get a work out there.I was lifting in the OP
Lord Fantasy
Footballguy
This here really caught my eye. Maybe it's because I like receivers but I do tend to stock up like a hurricane is coming. Yet in my scoring system (non-PPR) by the end of the year all but the top-top guys are usually pretty close together. Once in awhile you'll get one of those Yahtzee games where all three go off, but usually the individuals are up and down so it all averages out.Not sure if this insight will make me change my behavior, but thanks for it anyway.These next 20+ WRs typically get sliced and diced with owners who want strong WRs at all 3 starting spots usually going WR-WR-WR in the 2,3,4 or 3,4,5 rounds. You know you do it so don't deny it
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
MOP glad you got motivated - this is a potentially a very good thread
That said you need to clarify your early round thoughts better with respect to scoring/lineups ... not everybody plays in best ball leagues which can really change a draft plan. However your comments on who you like and who you don't and where to find value should be useful in any league
BUT some of the responders also need to clarify their question relative to their league like Ponchsox did
AND 4pt TDs for quarterbacks should really argue against drafting them so early - obviously that is different in 6 pt leagues
PPR vs (old) standard significantly changes some players appeal in the first or second rounds and except for very few tight ends whose value is inordinately wrapped up in receptions most players significantly overdraft TE in the FBGPC and survivor formats
In most PPR leagues the first round is goint to start out with the following players
Foster
Rice
McCoy
Calvin
Rodgers
Chris Johnson
Graham
Forte
Brady
the order is not really as important as the fact that they are off the board
throw Gronk in there too although I have seen him slip into the second round
Frankly the fact that the two TE and two (or more) QB being drafted in so many first rounds is because of the huge questions and total lack of faith in players whom we would have thought there three months - MJD - or three weeks - Richardson/Matthews ago. It also forces people to make a decision on either those players or DMac who would clearly be there on a talent or ppg basis but won't be in your lineup all year.
That said you need to clarify your early round thoughts better with respect to scoring/lineups ... not everybody plays in best ball leagues which can really change a draft plan. However your comments on who you like and who you don't and where to find value should be useful in any league
BUT some of the responders also need to clarify their question relative to their league like Ponchsox did
AND 4pt TDs for quarterbacks should really argue against drafting them so early - obviously that is different in 6 pt leagues
PPR vs (old) standard significantly changes some players appeal in the first or second rounds and except for very few tight ends whose value is inordinately wrapped up in receptions most players significantly overdraft TE in the FBGPC and survivor formats
In most PPR leagues the first round is goint to start out with the following players
Foster
Rice
McCoy
Calvin
Rodgers
Chris Johnson
Graham
Forte
Brady
the order is not really as important as the fact that they are off the board
throw Gronk in there too although I have seen him slip into the second round
Frankly the fact that the two TE and two (or more) QB being drafted in so many first rounds is because of the huge questions and total lack of faith in players whom we would have thought there three months - MJD - or three weeks - Richardson/Matthews ago. It also forces people to make a decision on either those players or DMac who would clearly be there on a talent or ppg basis but won't be in your lineup all year.
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karmarooster
Footballguy
I don't have much to add right now, but wanted to say thanks to MOP for a quality read!
silentcoach
Footballguy
Great topic and thread.
This is how I go about drafting in the first 6 rounds.
Rounds 1 and 2--draft players with high floors. If they perform better than their floor, great--I just want solid production from these rounds.
Round 3: starting looking at floor AND ceiling.
Rounds 4-6: I draft solely on ceiling.
**Of course you will have to determine who you think has high floors, and ceilings, etc.
Example of a player I would not draft in the first two rounds would be J.Nelson (not that he would be drafted that high anyhow)--high ceiling but also a low floor because of targets, decrease in tds, etc
Which position to go in which rounds is the million dollar question!
This is how I go about drafting in the first 6 rounds.
Rounds 1 and 2--draft players with high floors. If they perform better than their floor, great--I just want solid production from these rounds.
Round 3: starting looking at floor AND ceiling.
Rounds 4-6: I draft solely on ceiling.
**Of course you will have to determine who you think has high floors, and ceilings, etc.
Example of a player I would not draft in the first two rounds would be J.Nelson (not that he would be drafted that high anyhow)--high ceiling but also a low floor because of targets, decrease in tds, etc
Which position to go in which rounds is the million dollar question!
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Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Chris Johnson - don't sleep on him - I understand he looks good tonight.... 
I had a thought here.. maybe we need to make this several different threads.. or at least a few different threads. There is a whole lot of difference playing best ball format, versus PPR versus a TD heavy league versus 2 qb etc.. I for one at times find my head spinning as i play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems which has a dramatic impact on how I will approach the draft in each of them.
I had a thought here.. maybe we need to make this several different threads.. or at least a few different threads. There is a whole lot of difference playing best ball format, versus PPR versus a TD heavy league versus 2 qb etc.. I for one at times find my head spinning as i play in multiple leagues with different scoring systems which has a dramatic impact on how I will approach the draft in each of them.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
10/46/2TD...Locker was only 4 for 11 not really helping either. Not sure what to make of those stats.Chris Johnson - don't sleep on him - I understand he looks good tonight....
karmarooster
Footballguy
Locker is going to throw for only about 50% completions, but will chuck it and scramble on his own when not throwing picks. CJ looked spry. Remember how good he was with a mobile Vince Young??'Ministry of Pain said:10/46/2TD...Locker was only 4 for 11 not really helping either. Not sure what to make of those stats.'Angry Beavers said:Chris Johnson - don't sleep on him - I understand he looks good tonight....
heropretend
Footballguy
i really like your reasoning, but disagree with the drafting strategy. known quantities like the qbs and mid to late rounds rbs usually have a much lower floor than expected. there are tons of posts about what happened to brady and manning after their huge seasons so i won't get into the should i draft a qb argument. but what i don't get is why act like a wr is free from injury or slumps. there were a ton of wr injuries (aj, austin, britt, amendola, jennings late), overvalued disappointments (vjax, wallace) and duds (holmes, manningham) last year. i try and pick safely in the first few rounds too, but ultimately, i want to make picks that can outperform their tier. this season i see a lot of tier 2 rbs with upside (murray, charles, sjax, forte, cj2k, dmac, mjd, etc) and not many tier 2 wrs (julio, aj, andre, fitz) but about 25 potential tier 3 wrs with upside like stevie johnson, vjax, garcon, wayne, brown, etc. otoh i see a steep decline to turner, gore, etc who look to be a few snaps from becoming benson or b.jacobs. to keep from owning turner, gore, greene etc i will almost always draft 3 rbs in the first 5 rounds and grab the last tier 3 wr like stevie or vjax in round 6. i also don't feel safe with my rbs and so i'll add a few guys like quizz, wilson to round it out.
MOP,
Great thread, great topic, well written.
I'll go on record as saying I really only agree with about half of your individual player assessments. You and I are on different wavelengths this year but that's the fun of fantasy....there's more than one way to skin a cat and we are all going to see different players in a different light.
I agree with you about most of the RB's taken early after the clear Big 3 having question marks. I just feel the one exception to the rule is Darren McFadden.
This topic has been debated to death on this as well as other ff message boards all over the net. Bottom line I don't believe in the tooth fair, santa clause, or injury "prone-ness" unless the guy is coming off an ACL, patella tendon, or achilles injury. I know McFadden has had foot problems but players have come back from that cleanly. I believe in "bad luck" and the fact that EVERYTHING returns to the mean. I remember Fred Taylor spent the better part of his first 4 or 5 years in the league injured. He then spent the next 5 or 6 seasons as the picture of health. I remember just last year at this time Stafford was labeled as injury prone....1 healthy season later and everyone is blindly drafting him in the first two rounds without even a mention of his prior injuries. Bottom line...I don't try to predict, prognosticate, or put probablities on injuries. Other than degenerative injuries and the major 3 I mentioned earlier I file them all under the "bad luck" column and treat every year mutually exclusive of the previous.
So I say all that to say this...I'm high on McFadden and basically won't draft Chris Johnson. The only thing that has held and could hold Mcfadden back is the aforementioned "bad luck". Meanwhile Chris Johnson was relatively injury free during last years debacle. Red flags flying all over the place for my taste and Chris Johnson will be drafted way before I would ever consider him (3rd round) which in relative terms takes him off my draft list.
I just don't agree with taking a QB early either, under any circumstances (assuming normal ppr rules, nothing slanted towards QB's). With guys like both Mannings, Rivers, Vick, and Romo being taken anywhere from 4-6 rounds later I can't justify using an early pick on a QB. You touched on something I totally agree with and something I alluded to before....EVERYTHING returns to the mean. I'm an accountant, I can't help it....I know that sentence is cliche but after 15+ years playing FF it's the one constant I can honestly say stands up to the test of time. I think QB numbers normalize a bit this year, which is just another reason why I won't take one early. That old cliche about the rising tide has just as much sentiment when it's low tide as well.
So that leads me to my favorite topic....WR's. Many on this board know I'm probably the biggest proponent of upside down drafting in this universe. I've been doing it from before Waldman made it a well known ff term. After 5+ years of using this strategy in 12 team ppr leagues I can only attest to one thing......it works.
In many ways in requires MORE work, MORE studying, MORE analysis, and MORE judgement calls. This is part of the reason I love it so much...it's got some science to it...but there's art in there. Every year I learn something and I tweak, adjust, and re-callibrate accordingly. I mentioned this in one of my other posts but I've basically come up with my own little "check list" of things that I look for in middle to late round rb's. I study the heck out of the them and honestly end up spending 80% of my fantasy prep time analyzing them. Several on this board have PM'd me for my list, my picks, my check list criteria....I hope nobody takes it personally but I just won't give it out...even on PM. I pour so much time into it and I know I have several guys from leagues that visit these forums (and they are sneaky scumbags) that I'm just gunshy to reply with all the details of what I think.
And in all honesty nobody should want it either. These are volume plays. I believe in quantity over quality when it comes to RB's anyways so if I give people just some of the guys I like and those 2 or 3 happen to miss I haven't done them justice. My theory works because I have 7-11 guys I really like every year and I try to take at least 7 of them every year. My %'s aren't great even when the theory works correctly because at best I'll hit on half my picks....which means for every 8 rb's I like I'm wrong on 4. The key here is that anyone who is interested in doing this strategy (and I'm sure there's a hell of alot smarter people than myself on this board who could probably take this strategy to new heights) simply needs to put in the time to analyze the guys who have the most factors working in their favor that they might EVENTUALLY at some point in the season have an opportunity to take over the bell cow responsbilities while also having enough talent to do something with that opportunity.
With all that said...there is difference between the top 8-9 WR's and all of those guys you lumped into the 3-4-5-6 round WR group. I think this is where we differ the most because similar to how we feel about those early rb's after the big 3...I also see question marks with a lot of those middle round receivers. Will there be some emerging studs in there? of course...but what I'm telling you is that I don't have the first clue as to who they might be. I just feel it's alot easier to predict RB success than it is to pick out WR's who could return elite production.
I'm looking to walk out of those first 4 rounds with 3 WR's....at almost all costs. I'd take Calvin first overall. No hesitation. In my eyes Julio is a first round pick...no hesitation. Going back to my "bad luck" theory I don't discount Andre anywhere near the level you do...I actually think he presents value this year since you're getting a top 10 overall NFL player who's consistently slipping into the 2nd and sometimes even 3rd round. Let me say this as clearly as a I can....in a ppr league ...and in my opinion...it would be a HUGE mistake to pass up on a situation where you could end up with Andre as your # FREAKING THREE WR. If you can somehow pull off a first 3 round haul of Calvin, Julio, Andre.....I mean to me that's just a thing of beauty. You're looking at 3 guys who could only be held back by injuries. None of those 3 have torn an ACL, blown an Achilles, or anything like that....2 of them are the 2 most dominant players at the position and have already done it. Julio is a projection of talent pedigree...but to me his floor is so freaking high that even if he doesn't turn out to be what I think he'll be....he'll still be a top 8 WR at worst IMO.
As for the Tight ends...I just have a hard time taking Graham in the 2nd. If you take him in the 2nd (and you're drafting from a late position) you're 3 receivers aren't going to be as good...you'll likely get someone like Nicks as your #2 and probably have to go the Harvin/Nelson route for your #3. All fine players...but compare that to the first threesome I mentioned earlier....to me there is no comparison.
Don't get me wrong I love Graham. The decision there just depends on how many WR's you think will go early in your league. If you feel you can still get 3 of he 8-9 elite guys even with taking Graham then I'd definitely advocate taking him in the 2nd. To me there is something to be said for waiting and taking Gates in the 4th. To me...that's value.
Those are my inital thoughts without writing a complete thesis. I know I lost many of you a long time ago but in case anyone made it this far feel free to give me your thoughts on how crazy I am.
Great thread, great topic, well written.
I'll go on record as saying I really only agree with about half of your individual player assessments. You and I are on different wavelengths this year but that's the fun of fantasy....there's more than one way to skin a cat and we are all going to see different players in a different light.
I agree with you about most of the RB's taken early after the clear Big 3 having question marks. I just feel the one exception to the rule is Darren McFadden.
This topic has been debated to death on this as well as other ff message boards all over the net. Bottom line I don't believe in the tooth fair, santa clause, or injury "prone-ness" unless the guy is coming off an ACL, patella tendon, or achilles injury. I know McFadden has had foot problems but players have come back from that cleanly. I believe in "bad luck" and the fact that EVERYTHING returns to the mean. I remember Fred Taylor spent the better part of his first 4 or 5 years in the league injured. He then spent the next 5 or 6 seasons as the picture of health. I remember just last year at this time Stafford was labeled as injury prone....1 healthy season later and everyone is blindly drafting him in the first two rounds without even a mention of his prior injuries. Bottom line...I don't try to predict, prognosticate, or put probablities on injuries. Other than degenerative injuries and the major 3 I mentioned earlier I file them all under the "bad luck" column and treat every year mutually exclusive of the previous.
So I say all that to say this...I'm high on McFadden and basically won't draft Chris Johnson. The only thing that has held and could hold Mcfadden back is the aforementioned "bad luck". Meanwhile Chris Johnson was relatively injury free during last years debacle. Red flags flying all over the place for my taste and Chris Johnson will be drafted way before I would ever consider him (3rd round) which in relative terms takes him off my draft list.
I just don't agree with taking a QB early either, under any circumstances (assuming normal ppr rules, nothing slanted towards QB's). With guys like both Mannings, Rivers, Vick, and Romo being taken anywhere from 4-6 rounds later I can't justify using an early pick on a QB. You touched on something I totally agree with and something I alluded to before....EVERYTHING returns to the mean. I'm an accountant, I can't help it....I know that sentence is cliche but after 15+ years playing FF it's the one constant I can honestly say stands up to the test of time. I think QB numbers normalize a bit this year, which is just another reason why I won't take one early. That old cliche about the rising tide has just as much sentiment when it's low tide as well.
So that leads me to my favorite topic....WR's. Many on this board know I'm probably the biggest proponent of upside down drafting in this universe. I've been doing it from before Waldman made it a well known ff term. After 5+ years of using this strategy in 12 team ppr leagues I can only attest to one thing......it works.
In many ways in requires MORE work, MORE studying, MORE analysis, and MORE judgement calls. This is part of the reason I love it so much...it's got some science to it...but there's art in there. Every year I learn something and I tweak, adjust, and re-callibrate accordingly. I mentioned this in one of my other posts but I've basically come up with my own little "check list" of things that I look for in middle to late round rb's. I study the heck out of the them and honestly end up spending 80% of my fantasy prep time analyzing them. Several on this board have PM'd me for my list, my picks, my check list criteria....I hope nobody takes it personally but I just won't give it out...even on PM. I pour so much time into it and I know I have several guys from leagues that visit these forums (and they are sneaky scumbags) that I'm just gunshy to reply with all the details of what I think.
And in all honesty nobody should want it either. These are volume plays. I believe in quantity over quality when it comes to RB's anyways so if I give people just some of the guys I like and those 2 or 3 happen to miss I haven't done them justice. My theory works because I have 7-11 guys I really like every year and I try to take at least 7 of them every year. My %'s aren't great even when the theory works correctly because at best I'll hit on half my picks....which means for every 8 rb's I like I'm wrong on 4. The key here is that anyone who is interested in doing this strategy (and I'm sure there's a hell of alot smarter people than myself on this board who could probably take this strategy to new heights) simply needs to put in the time to analyze the guys who have the most factors working in their favor that they might EVENTUALLY at some point in the season have an opportunity to take over the bell cow responsbilities while also having enough talent to do something with that opportunity.
With all that said...there is difference between the top 8-9 WR's and all of those guys you lumped into the 3-4-5-6 round WR group. I think this is where we differ the most because similar to how we feel about those early rb's after the big 3...I also see question marks with a lot of those middle round receivers. Will there be some emerging studs in there? of course...but what I'm telling you is that I don't have the first clue as to who they might be. I just feel it's alot easier to predict RB success than it is to pick out WR's who could return elite production.
I'm looking to walk out of those first 4 rounds with 3 WR's....at almost all costs. I'd take Calvin first overall. No hesitation. In my eyes Julio is a first round pick...no hesitation. Going back to my "bad luck" theory I don't discount Andre anywhere near the level you do...I actually think he presents value this year since you're getting a top 10 overall NFL player who's consistently slipping into the 2nd and sometimes even 3rd round. Let me say this as clearly as a I can....in a ppr league ...and in my opinion...it would be a HUGE mistake to pass up on a situation where you could end up with Andre as your # FREAKING THREE WR. If you can somehow pull off a first 3 round haul of Calvin, Julio, Andre.....I mean to me that's just a thing of beauty. You're looking at 3 guys who could only be held back by injuries. None of those 3 have torn an ACL, blown an Achilles, or anything like that....2 of them are the 2 most dominant players at the position and have already done it. Julio is a projection of talent pedigree...but to me his floor is so freaking high that even if he doesn't turn out to be what I think he'll be....he'll still be a top 8 WR at worst IMO.
As for the Tight ends...I just have a hard time taking Graham in the 2nd. If you take him in the 2nd (and you're drafting from a late position) you're 3 receivers aren't going to be as good...you'll likely get someone like Nicks as your #2 and probably have to go the Harvin/Nelson route for your #3. All fine players...but compare that to the first threesome I mentioned earlier....to me there is no comparison.
Don't get me wrong I love Graham. The decision there just depends on how many WR's you think will go early in your league. If you feel you can still get 3 of he 8-9 elite guys even with taking Graham then I'd definitely advocate taking him in the 2nd. To me there is something to be said for waiting and taking Gates in the 4th. To me...that's value.
Those are my inital thoughts without writing a complete thesis. I know I lost many of you a long time ago but in case anyone made it this far feel free to give me your thoughts on how crazy I am.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
No problem and I appreciate you sharing the sound reasoning behind why you feel that way. Room for lots of thoughts in here.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I didn't want to repost the whole thing but I knew there was a bunch of you people out there
I'm really glad you took the time to post up in here. No problem with a difference of opinion on the individual player, in fact I am going to rethink some of these RBs that I am just glossing over. You made some good points about McFadden but it would also seem that ADP, Mendy, and Charles are not on your short list of must have players.
Cheers
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Thanks OTB and everyone who posted nice thoughts. Just get an idea sometimes and I run with it. Maybe today/tomorrow I'll do the middle rounds.Always a pleasure to click your threads when I trek over to the SP ... solid work.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
quite welcome, GB ...Back end (10,12) of both my big $ leagues this year ... 8 surefire picks, IMO (big 3 rb, big 3 qb, Calvin, CJ) .... lynch pin for me, especially with pick 10, is DMac. When assessing the talent/upside, he is the no brainer guy for me. Looking for any of: Graham/Gronk/Julio/Forte on the way back. Would be cool with any of them to pair with McFadden.Pick 12 is much more complex ... starting off with Forte, most likely ... wanna pair with any of the above mentioned. If DMac slides in both, I'm all in.ETA: those "surefire" top 8 picks I allude to are based on league rules and tendencies. I know how/why these folks draft ...Thanks OTB and everyone who posted nice thoughts. Just get an idea sometimes and I run with it. Maybe today/tomorrow I'll do the middle rounds.Always a pleasure to click your threads when I trek over to the SP ... solid work.
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Manster
Footballguy
Nice work MOP.
Agreed on Brady. The NE passing attack is gonna do some damage again this year. Brady will have em focused and you know they're gonna want to embarrass teams.
I like what I'm seeing from Chris Johnson. He looks like he's in mid-season form.
You might be right about Orton getting on the field, especially if the O-line has injuries. I still think Dez is gonna be a BEAST this year. He will be the unquestioned #1 in Dallas.
Agreed on Brady. The NE passing attack is gonna do some damage again this year. Brady will have em focused and you know they're gonna want to embarrass teams.
I like what I'm seeing from Chris Johnson. He looks like he's in mid-season form.
You might be right about Orton getting on the field, especially if the O-line has injuries. I still think Dez is gonna be a BEAST this year. He will be the unquestioned #1 in Dallas.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
i am on board with this schtick.nice thread mop. #### the haters. dont agree with everything, but too many people are afraid to put it.on.record so to speak. sis i laws in town but i'll add more later in the week.'POLITE ALL CAPS GUY said:
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
its preseason. all u need to know is that CJs wheels are back. don't forget that the plays and def being used in PS are not even a good-fair approximation of real season. ignore the stats mostly. just watch to see if previously injured players are healthy again, and havent lost a step.'Ministry of Pain said:10/46/2TD...Locker was only 4 for 11 not really helping either. Not sure what to make of those stats.'Angry Beavers said:Chris Johnson - don't sleep on him - I understand he looks good tonight....
black dot...
2012 sos ne is ....not relevant. but only 3 opposing qbs might sniff the top 12. Manning,Fitz,Matt Schaub.
again, not important if N.E. def makes qb1s.
lets reach for negatives low passing ,scoreing...more running from N.E. emmmm nah.
as far as the write up , not so sure waiting till round 5 to take "shotgun" rbs . me thinks 4th. as having 7rbs seems to
be the norm. (in 6 rb/wr league). 2/3 round wr yep. as 10 teams will have good wr pairs at least.
Seems normal to me. Pos. rb2,wr3,te,qb all drafted targeting multiple players , using the "hot" player. or match up.
Just choose your plan. but rb will take drafting 6 same as any other year. generally . 3 teams could go with 5 . ;/.
Willis McGahee
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Peyton Hillis
Kevin Smith
Donald Brown
should be round 5 choices mentioned. but i am sure u will.
anyway, not sold on redmond lasting,(fatigue, not inj prediction) but Pitt does have a wk 4 bye which will help.
2012 sos ne is ....not relevant. but only 3 opposing qbs might sniff the top 12. Manning,Fitz,Matt Schaub.
again, not important if N.E. def makes qb1s.
lets reach for negatives low passing ,scoreing...more running from N.E. emmmm nah.
as far as the write up , not so sure waiting till round 5 to take "shotgun" rbs . me thinks 4th. as having 7rbs seems to
be the norm. (in 6 rb/wr league). 2/3 round wr yep. as 10 teams will have good wr pairs at least.
Seems normal to me. Pos. rb2,wr3,te,qb all drafted targeting multiple players , using the "hot" player. or match up.
Just choose your plan. but rb will take drafting 6 same as any other year. generally . 3 teams could go with 5 . ;/.
Willis McGahee
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Peyton Hillis
Kevin Smith
Donald Brown
should be round 5 choices mentioned. but i am sure u will.
anyway, not sold on redmond lasting,(fatigue, not inj prediction) but Pitt does have a wk 4 bye which will help.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Gonna work on the 2nd installment today, like that short list of backs you have there.
The Jerk
Footballguy
MoP,Love the thread. First posts like yours do 10x more to improve the quality of the Shark Pool than 10 page threads lamenting what it has become.Love this post, too. And I can tell you, as one who discussed upside-down drafting vs. RB heavy drafting last season, you're not lying when you say "I'm not so stubborn I can't learn" because you've got a considerably different perspective than you did this time last year. I give you a lot of credit for being open to change.So... family outings kept me away from all things football for the past few days. Actually, a good break 10 days or so before my biggest draft. Perfect time to get away from the details and think philosophy and big picture. I was mentally trying to determine who I will take at picks 11 and 14 in my 12-team TD-heavy, 6 pt passing TD league. And I'm having trouble getting to 10 guys I feel that clearly separate themselves from the field. The best I can do is Brady, Rodgers, Brees at QB, McCoy, Foster, Rice at RB, Calvin at WR, Gronk at TE. Honestly, that's all I feel completely comfortable with, and it's unlikely one of them slips to me at 11. I can argue Stafford and Graham onto the list, but I'm still not all the way to 11, let alone 14. More in my next post, but I want to follow up another poster's comment first.
The Jerk
Footballguy
Second round drafting is the most difficult I have seen in 20+ years of fantasy football preparation. And if you're on the 1st/2nd round turn, then it's an even bigger problem. Really, I think differentiating overall picks 10-20 is possibly the key to a successful draft this year.Depending on the league, I can see Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Stafford and Newton being top 20 picks (I won't be taking Newton, but someone else almost certainly will.)McCoy, Foster and Rice are no-brainers, but I don't love anyone else after that. Just like MoP.Calvin is a tier of one at WR.Gronk and Graham are in a class by themselves at TE.My goal is to uncover another tier of 4-5 RBs and 4-5 WRs to help fill out the second round.My initial thoughts are:C.Johnson -- does he have his game back?McFadden -- injury concernForte -- does M.Bush take away short TDs?Lynch -- highest floor in TD heavy league of this bunch, but suspension risk, and did he have a career year in 2011?J.Jones -- massive upside, but not confident the TDs will be thereA.Johnson -- health concerns, never hit double-digit TDsFitzgerald -- offense as a whole looks weakJennings -- concussion and other injury concerns; arguably the highest floor of this bunchBut I just can't see myself feeling good about any of those names in the early second round. Selfishly, at picks 11 and 14, I want to feel better about drafting one of the 8 names immediately above. I do think those of you drafting in the mid-to-late 2nd round have to feel more comfortable with those names.Again, I feel like defining a clear second tier at both RB and WR is one of the most important tasks for draft success. Interested to hear what others think concerning my proposed tiers.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
I keep seeing this thought expressed in several threads/drafts.Do yourself a favor and go back and look at Forte's numbers and scoring from previous years.
Short TD runs were NOT a factor in his scoring
He will get his points - especially in PPR leagues, but Bush won't impact his totals
to thoughts on The Jerk tiers, sorry, but i agree almost word for word.
all i can type...When the values,players all seem to mix. i then drop to the next three rounds ,project who i like there.Then choose players who compliment them.
i unfortunately have had to move stafford into my top 12. but charles/jackson is starting to grow on me,But not so much if tds are a large part of scoring. then i go gonk/graham if there. Jones ,jennings...
all i can type...When the values,players all seem to mix. i then drop to the next three rounds ,project who i like there.Then choose players who compliment them.
i unfortunately have had to move stafford into my top 12. but charles/jackson is starting to grow on me,But not so much if tds are a large part of scoring. then i go gonk/graham if there. Jones ,jennings...
The Jerk
Footballguy
Thanks for the feedback. I didn't realize that after 5 short rushing TDs (3 yards or less) in his 2008 rookie season, Forte has only had 3 such TDs in the past three seasons.Fair enough. However, that doesn't sell me on Forte as an early pick in a heavy TD league as much as in other formats. If I'm remembering correctly, Forte and the Bears have not been super successful at short rushing TDs as a whole, and now Bush is possibly taking away whatever opportunities actually surface. Perhaps the better way to phrase it is Forte does not figure to get cheap TD points, and while it's true that his value has not been enhanced by those scores in the past three seasons, it is also true that he is unlikely to get many of them this season. Don't look for his ppg to go up; at best, he sustains where he has been in the past few seasons.
An alternative way to think about it is that while Forte was quite effective in 2011 -- depending on format, maybe very productive -- he would have averaged two additional ppg if he had gotten all four of the shortie TDs that Marion Barber got last season in Chicago. Arguably, then, the track record with Forte lowers his ceiling somewhat, but he also has a reasonably high floor as he is not dependent on short rushing TDs to inflate his fantasy production. For me in my personal situation in a heavy TD league, he is still not 14th pick worthy. But for other owners in other leagues, he is certainly in the conversation.
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Saint
Footballguy
I have to wonder, with the injury to Vincent Brown the other night, whether or not we may see Gates coming back as a double digit TD scorer again this year. When I look at the early rounds, looking to grab Gates in the early rounds may not be a bad play. I would expect at this point that he is going to be gone in the late 3rd/early 4th.
For the last several years, Gates toe and foot injuries have caused him to miss 9 regular season games, yet he has still recorded 10 TDs in 2010 and 7 TDs in 2011. When he's played, he has been one of the more dominating TEs in points per game out there. Based on the latest news from camp, the word is he is healthy and looking great. I would consider taking him in the 3/4 round area as I would not be surprised to see him end up as top 3 this year and potentially beat our Gronkowski and Graham as he will probably be the primary redzone target for Rivers.
So needless to say, I would include him in my targets for early rounders.
For the last several years, Gates toe and foot injuries have caused him to miss 9 regular season games, yet he has still recorded 10 TDs in 2010 and 7 TDs in 2011. When he's played, he has been one of the more dominating TEs in points per game out there. Based on the latest news from camp, the word is he is healthy and looking great. I would consider taking him in the 3/4 round area as I would not be surprised to see him end up as top 3 this year and potentially beat our Gronkowski and Graham as he will probably be the primary redzone target for Rivers.
So needless to say, I would include him in my targets for early rounders.
