Would like some help... (1 Viewer)

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I have been in the same league for 15+ years now. Our roster requirements and scoring had a radical change about 5 years ago. In all leagues I play in, I track some simple data on what players draft what positions in the first half of the draft. I have noticed what I think are certain trends over the past year or two, such as decrease in # of RBs in a certain round, etc...

One expamle is that the number of RBS taken in the first 2 rounds has decreased by 4.

Another example is the huge increase in the amount of QBs taken in the first 3 rounds.

Would you feel comfortable looking back at the last 5 years and using that to formulate your draft strategy? Would you take the last 5 years and average? Would you ignore the data completely?

So since we have such a small sample size, when does this trend become the standard?

Thanks.

 

[-jb-]

I have the same size data (five years). I've been using it for two years. 2011 will be my third. Last year, I was so confident in what would happen...until halfway through the first round. FIVE QBs flew off the board. That said, everything normalized by the middle of the third round. So, yes, the data does help, but you still need to be prepared for things to get turned upside down. I recommend you look at the data to not only see league tendencies, but also owner tendencies. This is more critical to me. I can tell you that one guy ALWAYS drafts RB/RB/WR/WR. I can tell you another guy ALWAYS drafts a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR through round 4. Another guy drafts his TE in round 6 every time. Every player has tendencies and it's good to know what they are (you'll probably also learn something about yourself - I did). In that league, we determine draft order 15 minutes before we actually draft, so I can only take prep so far. But, if I knew draft order in advance I could craft a mean ADP. In terms of trending, listen to your gut. Using the example above where 5 QBs went in the first round, I know that it's not likely to happen again, so I soften the impact when I look at possibilities. Regarding RBs going early, that's pretty common across all leagues, given how pass-friendly the NFL has become.

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I have the same size data (five years). I've been using it for two years. 2011 will be my third. Last year, I was so confident in what would happen...until halfway through the first round. FIVE QBs flew off the board. That said, everything normalized by the middle of the third round. So, yes, the data does help, but you still need to be prepared for things to get turned upside down. I recommend you look at the data to not only see league tendencies, but also owner tendencies. This is more critical to me. I can tell you that one guy ALWAYS drafts RB/RB/WR/WR. I can tell you another guy ALWAYS drafts a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR through round 4. Another guy drafts his TE in round 6 every time. Every player has tendencies and it's good to know what they are (you'll probably also learn something about yourself - I did). In that league, we determine draft order 15 minutes before we actually draft, so I can only take prep so far. But, if I knew draft order in advance I could craft a mean ADP. In terms of trending, listen to your gut. Using the example above where 5 QBs went in the first round, I know that it's not likely to happen again, so I soften the impact when I look at possibilities. Regarding RBs going early, that's pretty common across all leagues, given how pass-friendly the NFL has become.

Your story is exactly why I am wondering if the data after 5 years has any value. Thanks for sharing your story.I have tried reviewing owner trends and really have not found any patterns. I have noticed that a couple of guys like to fill out a starting lineup with their first 5 picks but who knows how accurate that is since our starting lineup is fairly unusual (1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex).

 

[-jb-]

I have the same size data (five years). I've been using it for two years. 2011 will be my third. Last year, I was so confident in what would happen...until halfway through the first round. FIVE QBs flew off the board. That said, everything normalized by the middle of the third round. So, yes, the data does help, but you still need to be prepared for things to get turned upside down. I recommend you look at the data to not only see league tendencies, but also owner tendencies. This is more critical to me. I can tell you that one guy ALWAYS drafts RB/RB/WR/WR. I can tell you another guy ALWAYS drafts a QB, 2 RBs, and a WR through round 4. Another guy drafts his TE in round 6 every time. Every player has tendencies and it's good to know what they are (you'll probably also learn something about yourself - I did). In that league, we determine draft order 15 minutes before we actually draft, so I can only take prep so far. But, if I knew draft order in advance I could craft a mean ADP. In terms of trending, listen to your gut. Using the example above where 5 QBs went in the first round, I know that it's not likely to happen again, so I soften the impact when I look at possibilities. Regarding RBs going early, that's pretty common across all leagues, given how pass-friendly the NFL has become.

Your story is exactly why I am wondering if the data after 5 years has any value. Thanks for sharing your story.I have tried reviewing owner trends and really have not found any patterns. I have noticed that a couple of guys like to fill out a starting lineup with their first 5 picks but who knows how accurate that is since our starting lineup is fairly unusual (1QB/1RB/2WR/1TE/1Flex).

I still think it's valuable. As mentioned, everything normalized after that to the point that you could pretty much swap their previous QB pick number with a RB. Also, we typically see 2 QBs go in the first round each year, so the anomaly was really only a few picks. I'm surprised you're not seeing patterns. I guess that means you've got some astute owners, or nutjobs. I also agree that your 1RB minimum affects things. Maybe isolate the last three years to see if there is anything there.