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WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (2 Viewers)

pinkstapler said:
sheerterror said:
Ilov80s said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Brian Thomas is a total stud and showed us as a Rookie...are we really going to start short changing him because Travis Hunter was taken?
I love this place

Jesus, Mary and Joesph I swear to God...look at Hunter's numbers closely, he's not the same Receiver that Thomas is, not even close IMHO.
Thomas is going to be the WR1-Alpha and Hunter will have some moments but he's not the guy that rips the cover off the back end of a defense the way Brian Thomas can
Hunter is a starting CB and part time Wide Receiver
His TD total last season has him confused like he's a frontline Wide Receiver, I really doubt his receiving skills in the NFL
Travis Harvin is going to be a fun talk piece for the media heads on TV to hype

87/1282/10TD on a bad team as a rookie WR in the NFL
Not many Wide Receivers can claim anything close to these numbers as a Rookie, I said not many...
Click to expand...
Maybe but he was the best receiver in college football last year so ruling him out at an NFL WR seems too skeptical. He could be very special.
Click to expand...
True, but this has also been deemed a pretty weak WR class.

Out of curiosity, where do people think would Hunter have been drafted as a pure WR in last years class? Where would he have gone this year if he was only a WR?
Click to expand...
I've heard most say he would have been in the same tier as MHJ, Nabors, Odunze; especially film watchers. People who only focus on analytics dinged him a bit more; I'd guess still in the BTJ/Ladd tier though. The "this is a weak WR class" was almost always attached to the caveat "Except Hunter, but we don't know what he's going to play or how he'll be deployed". And we still don't really; just that the odds shifted more towards WR based on the trade up and the amount of capital Jax just burned on him. You don't spend that on a CB, regardless of how good they are. It just doesn't happen.

There is a lot of very clear, logical evidence on why Sanders on a stat sheet didn't check every box metrics heads look for. There's also a reason most people who include film in their assessment said Sanders was far and away the best WR prospect this year; and comparing across years would have him as elite. Many have said with their grading numbers he is a better prospect than BTJ was coming out. Obviously BTJ exploded last year as a rookie and now most would have him ahead of Hunter because of the new evidence and taking all other new information into account.

I don't know where MOP is seeing anyone saying BTJ is being relegated to WR2 by Hunter. I haven't seen it anywhere, here included. Like I just said upthread "So it's hard to imagine Hunter playing 90%+ of offensive snaps. BTJ will still be the firm WR1 and get the most opportunities. What he may lose in looks where they are both on the field, he should gain in quality of looks he gets seeing as defenses will NOT be able to just ignore Hunter when he is out there."
Click to expand...
Hey Pink,
I see a lot of posters are excited about Hunter as a rookie Wide Receiver so I am trying to get an idea what type of numbers folks are projecting for Hunter in 2025
I'm a Redraft Warrior and all I care about for the most part is what they are going to do this year vs more long term thinkers that compete in Dynasty

So does anyone want to make a projection for Hunter or is it just too soon?
Are we talking about 2 Wide receivers in Jacksonville going over 1,000 yds receiving? That hasn't happened since McCardell-Jimmy Smith?

I appreciate you asking for more clarity on what I posted. Hunter was taken No 2 overall last night so naturally there is going to be some major hype, I should expect it
Is Hunter a single digit round guy for Redraft? What impact will it have on Thomas and his draft spot?
What if the first camp report isn't glowing on Hunter's ability to gain separation?

Some folks gotta pick real quick in Dynasty so i would think most of them would want to hear or see some actual hard numbers for expectations
Rookie Dynasty, where does Hunter rank? I bet it's pretty high
 
Ministry of Pain said:
pinkstapler said:
sheerterror said:
Ilov80s said:
Ministry of Pain said:
Brian Thomas is a total stud and showed us as a Rookie...are we really going to start short changing him because Travis Hunter was taken?
I love this place

Jesus, Mary and Joesph I swear to God...look at Hunter's numbers closely, he's not the same Receiver that Thomas is, not even close IMHO.
Thomas is going to be the WR1-Alpha and Hunter will have some moments but he's not the guy that rips the cover off the back end of a defense the way Brian Thomas can
Hunter is a starting CB and part time Wide Receiver
His TD total last season has him confused like he's a frontline Wide Receiver, I really doubt his receiving skills in the NFL
Travis Harvin is going to be a fun talk piece for the media heads on TV to hype

87/1282/10TD on a bad team as a rookie WR in the NFL
Not many Wide Receivers can claim anything close to these numbers as a Rookie, I said not many...
Click to expand...
Maybe but he was the best receiver in college football last year so ruling him out at an NFL WR seems too skeptical. He could be very special.
Click to expand...
True, but this has also been deemed a pretty weak WR class.

Out of curiosity, where do people think would Hunter have been drafted as a pure WR in last years class? Where would he have gone this year if he was only a WR?
Click to expand...
I've heard most say he would have been in the same tier as MHJ, Nabors, Odunze; especially film watchers. People who only focus on analytics dinged him a bit more; I'd guess still in the BTJ/Ladd tier though. The "this is a weak WR class" was almost always attached to the caveat "Except Hunter, but we don't know what he's going to play or how he'll be deployed". And we still don't really; just that the odds shifted more towards WR based on the trade up and the amount of capital Jax just burned on him. You don't spend that on a CB, regardless of how good they are. It just doesn't happen.

There is a lot of very clear, logical evidence on why Sanders on a stat sheet didn't check every box metrics heads look for. There's also a reason most people who include film in their assessment said Sanders was far and away the best WR prospect this year; and comparing across years would have him as elite. Many have said with their grading numbers he is a better prospect than BTJ was coming out. Obviously BTJ exploded last year as a rookie and now most would have him ahead of Hunter because of the new evidence and taking all other new information into account.

I don't know where MOP is seeing anyone saying BTJ is being relegated to WR2 by Hunter. I haven't seen it anywhere, here included. Like I just said upthread "So it's hard to imagine Hunter playing 90%+ of offensive snaps. BTJ will still be the firm WR1 and get the most opportunities. What he may lose in looks where they are both on the field, he should gain in quality of looks he gets seeing as defenses will NOT be able to just ignore Hunter when he is out there."
Click to expand...
Hey Pink,
I see a lot of posters are excited about Hunter as a rookie Wide Receiver so I am trying to get an idea what type of numbers folks are projecting for Hunter in 2025
I'm a Redraft Warrior and all I care about for the most part is what they are going to do this year vs more long term thinkers that compete in Dynasty

So does anyone want to make a projection for Hunter or is it just too soon?
Are we talking about 2 Wide receivers in Jacksonville going over 1,000 yds receiving? That hasn't happened since McCardell-Jimmy Smith?

I appreciate you asking for more clarity on what I posted. Hunter was taken No 2 overall last night so naturally there is going to be some major hype, I should expect it
Is Hunter a single digit round guy for Redraft? What impact will it have on Thomas and his draft spot?
What if the first camp report isn't glowing on Hunter's ability to gain separation?

Some folks gotta pick real quick in Dynasty so i would think most of them would want to hear or see some actual hard numbers for expectations
Rookie Dynasty, where does Hunter rank? I bet it's pretty high
Click to expand...
Such a broad range of outcomes and it feels so volitile projections will probably have a huge spread. I was never great at even trying to do them myself, at least not until players established a role and had a history with a team.

I would feel comfortable basically projecting no change for BTJ though. I think his ADP in redraft and dynasty should stay about where it is, and I wouldn't expect him to lose much, if any, fantasy production. I think we could see maybe targets take a slight ding (but even this feels unlikely since they shoved off Kirk and Engram, so there are more than enough vacated targets to redistribute), but I think his quality of targets will improve when defenses have to also account for Hunter. I guess we could rationalize this might help him, as historically rookie WRs who breakout big year one take a little dip as opposing defenses now have a season of NFL level tape on them and adjust schemes to put more of a defensive focus on taking them out/limiting them in the game. Hunter coming in should help stop that from happening to BTJ. I think he will move the needle much more than Kirk or even Engram did.

I'm incredibly torn on where to take Hunter, as I have a tendency to play it safer with my 1st round draft rookie picks. I feel like a huge miss on a first round pick could really damage a team, especially in dynasty. But even in seasonal leagues, whiffing on your first round pick just puts you at a pretty big disadvantage to those other league members who didn't IMO. You need to have done very well later in the draft, and often work waivers/trades to make up for it. So though I think Hunters talent level and solid landing spot (I'm still a TLaw believer, and think BTJ there is a good thing for Hunter) warrant a draft capital of anywhere from 1.03 to 1.10 (this range will shrink either on the high end or the low end depending how day 2 of the NFL draft shakes out), I'm just not sure I myself could pull the trigger on him there. At least not in the upper part of that range. Depending what we see tonight in round 2 of the NFL draft, I'd imagine I'd start to think it worthwhile to take him around 1.06. Just when I'm on the clock and there's a gun to my head, I could see me thinking it's safer to just take Judkins/Henderson/KJ/or even Skattebo depending on their draft capital and landing spots. As for WRs, as of now I think I'd only have Egbuka ahead of him though. I'm not a Tet or Golden guy. Burden in a good spot I could put ahead of Hunter. But that's probably about the line there too.
 
I've got him at WR8. Maybe that's too low. I'm wrestling with feeling like all of Nico, BTJ, London, and AJ Brown are all too low.

Thomas is probably a few spots higher if he's still the only talent in town. I had initially mentally pushed him down a bit since they brought in Hunter at #2 overall. Now I'm questioning how they're going to even use Hunter. Is he a full time WR?

Certainly, Coen's offense in TB supported 2 really good fantasy receivers.

Upside case:
Over his Final 7 games: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 675 yards, 5 TD’s
Extrapolated, that comes out to : 187 Targets, 121 Receptions, 1639 yards, 12 TD’s in 17 games.
 
jm192 said:
I've got him at WR8. Maybe that's too low. I'm wrestling with feeling like all of Nico, BTJ, London, and AJ Brown are all too low.

Thomas is probably a few spots higher if he's still the only talent in town. I had initially mentally pushed him down a bit since they brought in Hunter at #2 overall. Now I'm questioning how they're going to even use Hunter. Is he a full time WR?

Certainly, Coen's offense in TB supported 2 really good fantasy receivers.

Upside case:
Over his Final 7 games: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 675 yards, 5 TD’s
Extrapolated, that comes out to : 187 Targets, 121 Receptions, 1639 yards, 12 TD’s in 17 games.
Click to expand...
I am starting to think Hunter is not too much of a negative as he seems reluctant to choose one side or another. Also a much different receiver, Thomas is a safe bet imo. Overlooked him and McConkey last year and have regrets.
 
King of the Jungle said:
jm192 said:
I've got him at WR8. Maybe that's too low. I'm wrestling with feeling like all of Nico, BTJ, London, and AJ Brown are all too low.

Thomas is probably a few spots higher if he's still the only talent in town. I had initially mentally pushed him down a bit since they brought in Hunter at #2 overall. Now I'm questioning how they're going to even use Hunter. Is he a full time WR?

Certainly, Coen's offense in TB supported 2 really good fantasy receivers.

Upside case:
Over his Final 7 games: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 675 yards, 5 TD’s
Extrapolated, that comes out to : 187 Targets, 121 Receptions, 1639 yards, 12 TD’s in 17 games.
Click to expand...
I am starting to think Hunter is not too much of a negative as he seems reluctant to choose one side or another. Also a much different receiver, Thomas is a safe bet imo. Overlooked him and McConkey last year and have regrets.
Click to expand...
If anything I believe Hunter helps BTJ with whatever coverage he can draw.

BTJ did that last year with the ghost of Gabe Davis on the other side.

I couldn’t believe my luck when BTJ slid to 2.09 in a recent startup to pair with Burrow. I almost sold my entire future for Chase. Glad I waited instead.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
King of the Jungle said:
jm192 said:
I've got him at WR8. Maybe that's too low. I'm wrestling with feeling like all of Nico, BTJ, London, and AJ Brown are all too low.

Thomas is probably a few spots higher if he's still the only talent in town. I had initially mentally pushed him down a bit since they brought in Hunter at #2 overall. Now I'm questioning how they're going to even use Hunter. Is he a full time WR?

Certainly, Coen's offense in TB supported 2 really good fantasy receivers.

Upside case:
Over his Final 7 games: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 675 yards, 5 TD’s
Extrapolated, that comes out to : 187 Targets, 121 Receptions, 1639 yards, 12 TD’s in 17 games.
Click to expand...
I am starting to think Hunter is not too much of a negative as he seems reluctant to choose one side or another. Also a much different receiver, Thomas is a safe bet imo. Overlooked him and McConkey last year and have regrets.
Click to expand...
If anything I believe Hunter helps BTJ with whatever coverage he can draw.

BTJ did that last year with the ghost of Gabe Davis on the other side.

I couldn’t believe my luck when BTJ slid to 2.09 in a recent startup to pair with Burrow. I almost sold my entire future for Chase. Glad I waited instead.
Click to expand...
Good choice. What round for Burrow (SF or 1QB)?
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
King of the Jungle said:
jm192 said:
I've got him at WR8. Maybe that's too low. I'm wrestling with feeling like all of Nico, BTJ, London, and AJ Brown are all too low.

Thomas is probably a few spots higher if he's still the only talent in town. I had initially mentally pushed him down a bit since they brought in Hunter at #2 overall. Now I'm questioning how they're going to even use Hunter. Is he a full time WR?

Certainly, Coen's offense in TB supported 2 really good fantasy receivers.

Upside case:
Over his Final 7 games: 77 targets, 50 receptions, 675 yards, 5 TD’s
Extrapolated, that comes out to : 187 Targets, 121 Receptions, 1639 yards, 12 TD’s in 17 games.
Click to expand...
I am starting to think Hunter is not too much of a negative as he seems reluctant to choose one side or another. Also a much different receiver, Thomas is a safe bet imo. Overlooked him and McConkey last year and have regrets.
Click to expand...
If anything I believe Hunter helps BTJ with whatever coverage he can draw.

BTJ did that last year with the ghost of Gabe Davis on the other side.

I couldn’t believe my luck when BTJ slid to 2.09 in a recent startup to pair with Burrow. I almost sold my entire future for Chase. Glad I waited instead.
Click to expand...
In the camp not one iota concerned with Hunter negatively impacting BTJ.

I got some kind of concern with each and every WR I have ranked between WR 3-6, which includes BTJ. At this point not enough to move one down to WR7 but it's close.

With BTJ my concern is simply his week 15 and 16 matchups against Denver(Surtain and company) and the Jets (Sauce). Depending on your league these weeks may not be as impactful but in the national type contest I mainly play redraft these are the championship round money weeks and with a player I'd pick this I'd not be looking for ok or adequate. Hunter might actually help him in these matchups.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
menobrown said:
With BTJ my concern is simply his week 15 and 16 matchups against Denver(Surtain and company) and the Jets (Sauce)
Click to expand...
For me the concern is whether TLaw can take the next step or if he proves to be a super JAG.

Jury’s out.
Click to expand...
As it relates to BTJ he broke out with Mac Jones so not really concerned if Trevor can get back to playing like he did two years ago or not.
 
Hands down he was the best looking rookie WR in terms of potential explosiveness IMHO
Now I also acknowledge McConkey but I like Thomas a lot and think his best days are ahead of him
I wouldn't pay Hunter much attention this season, it's gonna take him some time to be an NFL WR, that's just my opinion, many take the other side

I thinkThomas might be going a little high in the last 1st/early 2nd but that's what happens when you find success early in your career.
133 targets last season, you can shave that down to whatever you want but he's a good candidate for 1,000+ yds, he has 10 TDs last season, OK slice it to 7. And he still will catch 70 balls
And I think he can go over those but much will depend on the new HC and TLaw
 
What a difference a coach makes.

Got in early and often for BTJ and Hunter this summer in best ball. Hunter is my clear #1 rookie WR. See them as complimentary with plenty of targets for each. BTJ feels like a solid pick late 1st or early 2nd with a very high floor.

Cherry on top. Jax D on paper is weak sauce. Can see the offense running hot and fast all season. They’ll need all the points they can get.

Sour cherries worry.
  • Playoff weeks vs Jets and Denver are concerning. Would be brutal to tear it up in the regular season to get hit with duds when you need points the most.
  • Is Trevor good enough to get the most out of the offensive
  • Will Hunter playing Defense tarnish what could have been
 
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