WR Catch Rates (1 Viewer)

[fornov]

I was looking at WR catch rates for the top-ranked players this season, and I found a few interesting numbers. The following numbers represent the players' catches/targets over the past 4 seasons in the NFL (this is as far back as target data goes).

Chad Johnson 59.4

Steve Smith 63.8

Torry Holt 63.7

Larry Fitzgerald 59.9

Randy Moss 57.9

Marvin Harrison 65.6

Anquan Boldin 59.1

Terrell Owens 58.1

Chris Chambers 50.4

Reggie Wayne 67.6

Donald Driver 61.0

Santana Moss 61.6

Hines Ward 66.3

Roy Williams 47.6

Plaxico Burress 50.5

Darrell Jackson 57.8

Note the exceedingly low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress. Also note the high numbers of Harrison and Wayne.

The high numbers for the Colts I think can be explained by Manning's accuracy. What are we to make of the low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress? Does this tell us anything about the players, or what to expect of them this year? Does it just reflect their QB's? This may have already been addressed elsewhere, but I've never seen a detailed study on this subject.

This is just something that has piqued my curiosity lately.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Probably their QBs.

Chambers had crap, Roy had crappier, and I'm not a believer in Eli.

 

[Musesboy]

I would excuse Chambers because his QBs have been backup quality. The Lions haven't exactly had good QBs either. Burress is more surprising.

It would be interesting to know what percentage were drops, and which were uncatchable.

 

[Keys Myaths]

I would excuse Chambers because his QBs have been backup quality. The Lions haven't exactly had good QBs either. Burress is more surprising.It would be interesting to know what percentage were drops, and which were uncatchable.

Really?Burress has had crap for QBs over the past few years.

 

[Musesboy]

I would excuse Chambers because his QBs have been backup quality. The Lions haven't exactly had good QBs either. Burress is more surprising.It would be interesting to know what percentage were drops, and which were uncatchable.

Really?Burress has had crap for QBs over the past few years.

Fitzgerald and Boldin do ok with Warner though. Manning should have plenty of improvement left, so Burress should do better in the future. If he doesn't, it must be his fault. Toomer's percentage is 51.7% over the last four years so I agree that it points to the QBs.

 

[jurb26]

All you need to do is look at last nights game to see just why this stat is one of the more useless ones in all of FF.

 

[duaneok66]

All you need to do is look at last nights game to see just why this stat is one of the more useless ones in all of FF.

you are going to use one game to explain why you should throw out a year's worth of statistics . . .funny stuff . . .

 

[jurb26]

All you need to do is look at last nights game to see just why this stat is one of the more useless ones in all of FF.

you are going to use one game to explain why you should throw out a year's worth of statistics . . .funny stuff . . .

Many games have many different circumstances. People using the stats never factor those in. As I've always said, stats don't lie, people using stats do. If you want to play the guessing game as to what those circumstances where w/o ever seeing the games then go ahead.

 

[duaneok66]

I was looking at WR catch rates for the top-ranked players this season, and I found a few interesting numbers. The following numbers represent the players' catches/targets over the past 4 seasons in the NFL (this is as far back as target data goes).

Chad Johnson 59.4

Steve Smith 63.8

Torry Holt 63.7

Larry Fitzgerald 59.9

Randy Moss 57.9

Marvin Harrison 65.6

Anquan Boldin 59.1

Terrell Owens 58.1

Chris Chambers 50.4

Reggie Wayne 67.6

Donald Driver 61.0

Santana Moss 61.6

Hines Ward 66.3

Roy Williams 47.6

Plaxico Burress 50.5

Darrell Jackson 57.8

Note the exceedingly low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress. Also note the high numbers of Harrison and Wayne.

The high numbers for the Colts I think can be explained by Manning's accuracy. What are we to make of the low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress? Does this tell us anything about the players, or what to expect of them this year? Does it just reflect their QB's? This may have already been addressed elsewhere, but I've never seen a detailed study on this subject.

This is just something that has piqued my curiosity lately.

besides the QB, another reason (sometimes) for the variance is taking into account what kind of routes they run . . . for example, you can take Randy Moss's low percentage because he runs deep routes 50 percent of the time (deep = 16+ yards) . . .

 

[duaneok66]

All you need to do is look at last nights game to see just why this stat is one of the more useless ones in all of FF.

you are going to use one game to explain why you should throw out a year's worth of statistics . . .funny stuff . . .

Many games have many different circumstances. People using the stats never factor those in. As I've always said, stats don't lie, people using stats do. If you want to play the guessing game as to what those circumstances where w/o ever seeing the games then go ahead.

I am disputing the statement you said about them being "useless" . . . they aren't ; just like almost any other stat, you have to take into account the situation . . .

 

[jurb26]

All you need to do is look at last nights game to see just why this stat is one of the more useless ones in all of FF.

you are going to use one game to explain why you should throw out a year's worth of statistics . . .funny stuff . . .

Many games have many different circumstances. People using the stats never factor those in. As I've always said, stats don't lie, people using stats do. If you want to play the guessing game as to what those circumstances where w/o ever seeing the games then go ahead.

I am disputing the statement you said about them being "useless" . . . they aren't ; just like almost any other stat, you have to take into account the situation . . .

It is nearly an impossible stat to ever really have faith in unless you wathced the game. I don't know anyone who can wathc every game or even 15% of the games. Take the prime example of Chambers. People have been continually telling us this offseason that he is a bad WR due to this catch rate. What we just saw last night was Chambers ahve 7 targets early on and 0 catchable balls. Sure, he later dropped a pass, but the overall theme seemed to be that the targets were more often than not horrible passes either due to accuracy or missed reads. These stats factor none of that into the number unless you actually watched the game.

 

[Bri]

over the past 4 seasons in the NFL (this is as far back as target data goes).

not sure what you mean but targets have been around a long time

 

[Bri]

I was looking at WR catch rates for the top-ranked players this season, and I found a few interesting numbers. The following numbers represent the players' catches/targets over the past 4 seasons in the NFL (this is as far back as target data goes).

Chad Johnson 59.4

Steve Smith 63.8

Torry Holt 63.7

Larry Fitzgerald 59.9

Randy Moss 57.9

Marvin Harrison 65.6

Anquan Boldin 59.1

Terrell Owens 58.1

Chris Chambers 50.4

Reggie Wayne 67.6

Donald Driver 61.0

Santana Moss 61.6

Hines Ward 66.3

Roy Williams 47.6

Plaxico Burress 50.5

Darrell Jackson 57.8

Note the exceedingly low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress. Also note the high numbers of Harrison and Wayne.

The high numbers for the Colts I think can be explained by Manning's accuracy. What are we to make of the low numbers for Chambers, Williams, and Burress? Does this tell us anything about the players, or what to expect of them this year? Does it just reflect their QB's? This may have already been addressed elsewhere, but I've never seen a detailed study on this subject.

This is just something that has piqued my curiosity lately.

doesn't mean anything. Factor in that some statistician watching the game deems the ball catchable or uncatchable.

 

[CalBear]

I think the main thing this is measuring is how open the player tends to be when he gets thrown to.

 

[fornov]

over the past 4 seasons in the NFL (this is as far back as target data goes).

not sure what you mean but targets have been around a long time

What I meant was that is as far back as the footballguys.com stats for targets go. I don't know where else to get accurate statistics on targets before 2002.

It is nearly an impossible stat to ever really have faith in unless you wathced the game. I don't know anyone who can wathc every game or even 15% of the games. Take the prime example of Chambers. People have been continually telling us this offseason that he is a bad WR due to this catch rate. What we just saw last night was Chambers ahve 7 targets early on and 0 catchable balls. Sure, he later dropped a pass, but the overall theme seemed to be that the targets were more often than not horrible passes either due to accuracy or missed reads. These stats factor none of that into the number unless you actually watched the game.

I guess the general consensus around here is that the catch rate is mostly of little value, but I don't know that it can be completely written off this easily. I understand that most of Chambers' targets were uncatchable balls, and yes I did watch the game, so I know how to put it into context. It is very difficult, however, to objectively view every receiver's targets for every team for every game throughout a season, even moreso for multiple seasons. That is why statistics are helpful - they give us an objective view of players' performances in a much shorter time frame than what it would take to actually watch all the games. Plus, we have a written account of how everyone did, so we can compare.So to use Burress's example again, here are his yearly breakdowns from '02-'05it '02 - 54.2Pit '03 - 48.4Pit '04 - 59.3NYG '05 - 45.8Compare to Hines Wardit '02 - 69.6Pit '03 - 60.9Pit '04 - 76.2 And Amani Toomer:NYG '05 - 55.0Doesn't this have significance for Burress? Ward was consistently 12-17 percentage points better than Burress throughout their years together in Pittsburgh. This was true for both Maddox and Roethisberger as their starting QB. Then when he goes to NY, Toomer bests him by 9+ percentage points. I think this has to say something specifically about Burress's ability, but I don't know what. Of course I've been wrong before.

 

[Bri]

fornov, "chambers targets were uncatchable balls" cannot be true by definition

 

[fornov]

fornov, "chambers targets were uncatchable balls" cannot be true by definition

Are you sure? Did he really have 9 passes thrown his way that were either dropped or broken up? It seems like for him to have had 14 targets on Thursday, they would have to be counting the ones Culpepper whizzed over his head or skipped off the turf.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

So to use Burress's example again, here are his yearly breakdowns from '02-'05:

Pit '02 - 54.2

Pit '03 - 48.4

Pit '04 - 59.3

NYG '05 - 45.8

Compare to Hines Ward:

Pit '02 - 69.6

Pit '03 - 60.9

Pit '04 - 76.2

And Amani Toomer:

NYG '05 - 55.0

Doesn't this have significance for Burress? Ward was consistently 12-17 percentage points better than Burress throughout their years together in Pittsburgh. This was true for both Maddox and Roethisberger as their starting QB. Then when he goes to NY, Toomer bests him by 9+ percentage points. I think this has to say something specifically about Burress's ability, but I don't know what. Of course I've been wrong before.

Burress' YPCit '02 - 17.0

Pit '03 - 14.3

Pit '04 - 19.9

NYG '05 - 16.0

Compare to Hines Ward:

Pit '02 - 11.9

Pit '03 - 12.2

Pit '04 - 12.6

And Amani Toomer:

NYG '05 - 11.4

Significance for Burress? Only if the argument at hand is that deep routes have a lower catch .pct than shorter routes. A 25 yard post is caught much less often than a 7 yard hitch.

Just another of the many, many reasons the catch % stat holds little significance.

 

[Bri]

fornov, "chambers targets were uncatchable balls" cannot be true by definition

Are you sure? Did he really have 9 passes thrown his way that were either dropped or broken up? It seems like for him to have had 14 targets on Thursday, they would have to be counting the ones Culpepper whizzed over his head or skipped off the turf.

nope I'm wrong, sorry mixed them upa DROP must be a catchable ball a target is just who it was intended for

http://snap.stats.com/stats/nfl/league/new_glossary.asp

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

This thread may be relevant.

 

[Donnybrook]

I'm surprised that Reggie Wayne % is higher than Marvin's.

 

[SSOG]

Probably their QBs.Chambers had crap, Roy had crappier, and I'm not a believer in Eli.

Lee Evans had J.P. Losman throwing to him, who I would contend was a far crappier QB than Chambers, Roy, or Plaxico had to deal with, and he still posted a 53% catch rate. You can't blame it on his routes, either, because his 15.5 ypr was almost 2 yards higher than Chambers', was about a quarter yard higher than Roy's, and only a half yard lower than Plaxico's.

It is nearly an impossible stat to ever really have faith in unless you wathced the game. I don't know anyone who can wathc every game or even 15% of the games. Take the prime example of Chambers. People have been continually telling us this offseason that he is a bad WR due to this catch rate. What we just saw last night was Chambers ahve 7 targets early on and 0 catchable balls. Sure, he later dropped a pass, but the overall theme seemed to be that the targets were more often than not horrible passes either due to accuracy or missed reads. These stats factor none of that into the number unless you actually watched the game.

I *have* watched the games. Almost every Miami game for 5 years now, to be specific, because the majority of my friends are rabid Miami fans. My conclusion on Chambers is that he has a lot of strengths- He has good measurables and he gets great separation, for instance- but his hands aren't one of them. Blame the QBs all you want, but a lot of WRs have played with Gus Frerotte before without their catch% sufferring (Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Randy Moss, etc). I saw Chambers drop a lot of passes, or just lose concentration on routine grabs. He's a lot like Brandon Lloyd- the occasional highlight-reel grab on sportscenter convinces casual fans that he catches everything that comes his way, when he simply doesn't.