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WR Chris Olave, NO (1 Viewer)

A very nice win. TD would have been gravy. No complaints but imagine if he had a competent QB. Perry, Johnson and Shaeed td’s

I’m an underdog but curious how 23.2 points from Olave adjusts my decision at my last flex spot. McBride, Swift, G. Wilson. I already start AJB. Also Nick Mullens vs. Minchew.

Going against: Hurts, CMC, Deebo, Higgins, Lockett and more. Fingers crossed.
 
I'm out. Lost by 12. Would have loved this last week. At least it's dynasty where next year should be exciting with his continued development. Hopefully Carr doesn't drag him down.
 
Bozeman Bruiser said:
2022: 15 gp, 72 rec, 119 tgts, 1042 yds, 4 td
2023: 14 gp, 81 rec, 129 tgts, 1041 yds, 4 td

As frustrating as this season has been he has equaled last season in 1 less game, with 2 games to go. His production is a little too early years Lockett (boom bust) for my liking, 5 games over 100 yards, 3 games under 30 yards. He has also left probably 5+ TDs on the turf thanks to poor throws or bad drops.

The Saints are likely stuck with Carr for a few more years thanks to the contract, as much fun as it has been to bag on Carr all season it does seem like his chemistry with Olave has improved the last month. And he is a tough mfr, with a full off season to recover and a new OC it isn't unreasonable to think that next season could be better.

For statistical comparison only, Mike Evans first 5 seasons:
2014: 15 gp, 68 rec, 124 tgts, 1051 yds, 12 td
2015: 15 gp, 74 rec, 147 tgts, 1206 yds, 3 td
2016: 16 gp, 96 rec, 175 tgts, 1321, 12 td
2017: 15 gp, 71 rec, 135 tgts, 1001, 5 td
2018: 16 gp, 86 rec, 139 tgts, 1524, 8 td

KInd of crazy in 10 seasons Evans only has 3 over 1200 yds (should hit that in the next 3 weeks to make it 4). He has been the epitome of consistency though, with 10 1000+ yds and 5 10+ td seasons. Not suggesting Olave is the next Evans but he is off to a similar start stats wise minus a few tds.

For me Olave is a hold for 2024. He makes a nice WR2 with WR1 potential.

Good luck to those still alive, hope Olave carries you to a 'ship these last 2 weeks.
Click to expand...
is this true? apparently noone likes him, think they figure out a way to cut bait.
 
Bozeman Bruiser said:
Mitchie said:
is this true? apparently noone likes him, think they figure out a way to cut bait.
Click to expand...
This was year 1 on a 4 year deal, 2024 is fully guaranteed, they can opt out after 2025.

I am not a contract guru, I assume they could cut him after the season but that is setting $30 million on fire plus whatever the cap hit would be. 2025 isn't guaranteed until March 2025 so I guess he gets next season to prove himself.

Derek Carr signed a 4 year, $150,000,000 contract with the New Orleans Saints, including a $28,500,000 signing bonus, $100,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $37,500,000. In 2023, Carr will earn a base salary of $1,500,000 and a signing bonus of $28,500,000, while carrying a cap hit of $7,200,000 and a dead cap value of $60,000,000.
Click to expand...

edit: just looking at those numbers is crazy, I guess it was a better return than Daniel Jones, but still that is a lot of dough
Click to expand...
looks like there's no money guaranteed after '24 so most likely will stick with him next year and then he'll be gone after that barring some significant turn around. not great news for Olave dynasty owners, on the other hand his QB could be Pickett or someone worse, has had some big games maybe can hope for some TD regression.
 
I think we were all expecting the huge breakout last season. He had a GOOD season all things considered.

His numbers extrapolated to 17 games would have been: 92 receptions, 1193 yards, 5 TD's.

He left the Falcons game on 11/26/23 with 12 minutes to go in the 3rd. So, basically half the game. Up to that point, he had torched Atlanta for 7 receptions and 114 yards. He was probably going to produce a lot more in the 2nd half.

He sprained his ankle in week 14 and missed a game. He was up and down the last 4 weeks of the season.

I think the big year comes this year. I think Shaheed may be really solid, but in general, Olave should get a ton of targets. Carr has warts, but he's good enough to support a high end WR1. I've got him at WR9. FBG has him at WR 11, Fantasypros at WR12. I think he's a little bit of a value.
 
Been really quiet in this thread. Someone give me an argument for why this dude is a WR1 by consensus ADP? Even if you overlook that:

Carr is his QB
19th in fantasy PPG.
17th in expected fantasy PPG
Middling WR2 efficiency numbers

What am I missing that should make this guy be sitting at ~ WR11 by ADP?

Glad to hear any reasoning why I'm a moron and overlooked some obvious point of why he's being drafted at his current price. Will give a no-prize™ if you convince me he is.
 
I think the talent and ability is there. He, like London, and Dotson from his same class, have been held back by poor QB play/offensive scheme. I know London and McLaurin/Dotson should be better this year with their team's QB upgrades...but I too am a little worried about Carr. Although he did have 3 or 4 nice weeks at the end of the season. Maybe he can build from there?
 
ffmail4me said:
I think the talent and ability is there. He, like London, and Dotson from his same class, have been held back by poor QB play/offensive scheme. I know London and McLaurin/Dotson should be better this year with their team's QB upgrades...but I too am a little worried about Carr. Although he did have 3 or 4 nice weeks at the end of the season. Maybe he can build from there?
Click to expand...

Not only is Carr his QB, the backups are Jake Haener (who?) and Spencer Rattler so owners better hope that Carr stays healthy. That's not exactly filling me with confidence on Olave's prospects either.
 
jumper said:
Been really quiet in this thread. Someone give me an argument for why this dude is a WR1 by consensus ADP? Even if you overlook that:

Carr is his QB
19th in fantasy PPG.
17th in expected fantasy PPG
Middling WR2 efficiency numbers

What am I missing that should make this guy be sitting at ~ WR11 by ADP?

Glad to hear any reasoning why I'm a moron and overlooked some obvious point of why he's being drafted at his current price. Will give a no-prize™ if you convince me he is.
Click to expand...

#notamoron

He's a REALLY good player that has been in a REALLY crumby situation. They brought in Baby Kubes as OC, so there is some hope that a new scheme and playcalling will have a sizeable impact. So...

PROS:
Superfast
Smooth route runner
Large gap in talent between him and other team members
No more Slantboy (not that there was much last year anyway)

CONS:
Meh hands
David Carr

TBD:
New OC

At his price, I have a hard time drafting him right now, which makes drafting CMC/Breece/Bijan problematic for me. By ADP, he's the guy that's there end of R2. So you wind up passing by him and taking a guy you like more that can be had cheaper (Aiyuk if he stays, Deebo, Evans, Nico).

I can see a world where he could be WR6, and I can see a world where he could be WR26.

He's more WR16 than WR12 to me. Definitely overvalued.
 
Had the 12th highest targets last season, and could only finish 20th in PPR points per game, and 24th is standard points per game. Even after the bye where there was improvement he still never cracked a top-10 week.

The only shot is any perceived improved connection between him and Carr, but I don't trust that QB too much and think he showed signs of regression. I wouldn't want Olave as my WR1, and feel much more comfortable drafting him in the WR 15 to 20 range.
 
I love me some Olave. Speed. Route running. Hands. Dude just knows how to play the wr position. I just can't get over the horrible chemistry he has with Carr. I just cant get over it. I sat there with Olave available and took Metcalf. I just kept seeing Carr overthrowing or underthrowing him. Again and Again. All my opinion.
 
FarFromHome said:
I love me some Olave. Speed. Route running. Hands. Dude just knows how to play the wr position. I just can't get over the horrible chemistry he has with Carr. I just cant get over it. I sat there with Olave available and took Metcalf. I just kept seeing Carr overthrowing or underthrowing him. Again and Again. All my opinion.
Click to expand...
He threw it behind him on the first pass that Olave made a great catch on, and missed the other 2 passes I saw by a wide margin.

Basically last season on display again.
 
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
 
jumper said:
Been really quiet in this thread. Someone give me an argument for why this dude is a WR1 by consensus ADP? Even if you overlook that:

Carr is his QB
19th in fantasy PPG.
17th in expected fantasy PPG
Middling WR2 efficiency numbers

What am I missing that should make this guy be sitting at ~ WR11 by ADP?

Glad to hear any reasoning why I'm a moron and overlooked some obvious point of why he's being drafted at his current price. Will give a no-prize™ if you convince me he is.
Click to expand...
Carr has proven he can sustain a #1 WR. Beyond Adams, he managed to will Hunter Renfrow to a top 12 finish in 2021 and Darren Waller to two great finishes regardless of position.

My biggest problem isn't Carr it's with the offensive line in New Orleans and I am not much of a fan of Klint Kubiak, yet.
 
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
 
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
 
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
Click to expand...

absolutely yes, and probably, but id need to sleep on it. i assume redraft
 
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
Click to expand...
Recent draft I took Bijan so I didn’t want to double up on ATL players so went Olave over London. But MHJr went pick before.
But I do like London but ATL has multiple mouths to feed
 
He just fell to me at 4.05 in a non-ppr redraft yesterday. And this league is like 15 years old, people know how to play (with a couple tacos though, but primarily sharp dudes).

Anyways, I checked this thread thinking I had missed some news or something.
 
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
Click to expand...
Without a 2nd thought. (I struggled with Olave vs MHJ up until about a week or so ago).

I think MHJ is special, and long term will be an amazing dynasty asset. As a rookie, if he gets for 85,1150, 6-7 TD's, that's a pretty very rookie season. That's about what Olave did despite missing a game being dinged up.

I believe in London's talent. But I was a bigger Olave fan when they both came out. London also just hasn't hit anywhere near the ceiling Olave has to date. Even a successful season for London I'm not sure equates to 90 catches. And obviously we can point to the QB issues London has had in the past. But, I'm not sure adding Cousins vaults him into the top 10. Lastly, I have soe amount of pause that Cousins may not be as effective this 1st season back from an achilles injury. It's not a huge factor, I don't mean to get into a big debate about whether or not Cousins is fine. It's just a very small thing to consider.

Lastly, I think Olave has the easiest path to a ridiculous target share. MHJ has McBride. London has Pitts. Olave has Shaheed. And I really like Shaheed. But I don't think he's going to be eating up a ton of volume. All 3 guys have RB's involved in the passing game.
 
jm192 said:
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
Click to expand...
Without a 2nd thought. (I struggled with Olave vs MHJ up until about a week or so ago).

I think MHJ is special, and long term will be an amazing dynasty asset. As a rookie, if he gets for 85,1150, 6-7 TD's, that's a pretty very rookie season. That's about what Olave did despite missing a game being dinged up.

I believe in London's talent. But I was a bigger Olave fan when they both came out. London also just hasn't hit anywhere near the ceiling Olave has to date. Even a successful season for London I'm not sure equates to 90 catches. And obviously we can point to the QB issues London has had in the past. But, I'm not sure adding Cousins vaults him into the top 10. Lastly, I have soe amount of pause that Cousins may not be as effective this 1st season back from an achilles injury. It's not a huge factor, I don't mean to get into a big debate about whether or not Cousins is fine. It's just a very small thing to consider.

Lastly, I think Olave has the easiest path to a ridiculous target share. MHJ has McBride. London has Pitts. Olave has Shaheed. And I really like Shaheed. But I don't think he's going to be eating up a ton of volume. All 3 guys have RB's involved in the passing game.
Click to expand...
What you stated here makes complete sense to me. Does that mean you have Olave ahead of everyone you stated?
 
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
the spanker said:
jm192 said:
RaidersAreOne said:
Talent wise I think Olave is a 1st round pick all day. But Carr sure drags his value down. Where are people comfortable taking him?
Click to expand...
Full PPR, mid 2nd all day.

He was banged up last year. 87 catches and 1123 in 16 games.
Was on pace for 90+ catches and nearly 1200 yards.

Had Carr last year
Had a bad offensive line last year.
Had injuries last year.
Click to expand...
Would you take him over London, MHJ?
Click to expand...
Without a 2nd thought. (I struggled with Olave vs MHJ up until about a week or so ago).

I think MHJ is special, and long term will be an amazing dynasty asset. As a rookie, if he gets for 85,1150, 6-7 TD's, that's a pretty very rookie season. That's about what Olave did despite missing a game being dinged up.

I believe in London's talent. But I was a bigger Olave fan when they both came out. London also just hasn't hit anywhere near the ceiling Olave has to date. Even a successful season for London I'm not sure equates to 90 catches. And obviously we can point to the QB issues London has had in the past. But, I'm not sure adding Cousins vaults him into the top 10. Lastly, I have soe amount of pause that Cousins may not be as effective this 1st season back from an achilles injury. It's not a huge factor, I don't mean to get into a big debate about whether or not Cousins is fine. It's just a very small thing to consider.

Lastly, I think Olave has the easiest path to a ridiculous target share. MHJ has McBride. London has Pitts. Olave has Shaheed. And I really like Shaheed. But I don't think he's going to be eating up a ton of volume. All 3 guys have RB's involved in the passing game.
Click to expand...
What you stated here makes complete sense to me. Does that mean you have Olave ahead of everyone you stated?
Click to expand...
Yessir.

I've got Olave at WR9, MHJ WR10.

I'm a lot lower than consensus on London. I've got him at WR19. Most people have him higher than that, so I never see him in drafts where I'll take hi. But the guys I'm getting around where he goes are also very good players, so I'm not sweating missing out.
 
(HULK) said:
He just fell to me at 4.05 in a non-ppr redraft yesterday. And this league is like 15 years old, people know how to play (with a couple tacos though, but primarily sharp dudes).

Anyways, I checked this thread thinking I had missed some news or something.
Click to expand...
He seems to be the WR who is falling. He wasn't totally on my target list but in 2 real person drafts, he was the guy who fell and bought the dip. I think there is a very real chance he's just expensive Terry McLaurin but at the same time with a new OC who is actually going to use motion and more modern concepts, I think there is also the chance he's discount CeeDee Lamb.
 
The ceiling is capped because of situation. Team stuck in roster building limbo, questionable coaching staff, QB who won't put it up so his guy can go get it.
 
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