WR Consistency (1 Viewer)

[rascal]

This thread will deal with WR's performing on a consistent basis each and every week, so for those that play in total point leagues this doesn't really apply.

Obviously it is desireable to get the WR that will put a consistent 10 points per game, but finding that WR is difficult at best. There are also top WR's that are simply AWFUl 75% of the games they are in (Chad Johnson last year comes to mind even though he finished #4 WR).

So what factors do you consider to help ensure a consistent WR and which WR are you looking at in particular.

 

[Brewzers]

This thread will deal with WR's performing on a consistent basis each and every week, so for those that play in total point leagues this doesn't really apply.Obviously it is desireable to get the WR that will put a consistent 10 points per game, but finding that WR is difficult at best. There are also top WR's that are simply AWFUl 75% of the games they are in (Chad Johnson last year comes to mind even though he finished #4 WR). So what factors do you consider to help ensure a consistent WR and which WR are you looking at in particular.

I look at the number of games above or below that mark first. I also do a standard deviation to help assess the risk. I'd rather have a WR that hits between 6 - 14 and averages 10 than one that hits between 3 - 17 and averages 10. I had a trade offer to receieve Lee Evans and give Marques Colston. I turned it down based on the above analysis.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Honestly I think it's next to impossible to measure a wide receivers consistency from season to season let alone game to game. Chad Johnson up to last season was considered a consistent receiver who put up solid numbers every week which eventually added up to a great season. It's only the 2006 season that he was thought to be "inconsistent". What's to say that after this season his production isn't more steady from week to week.

It's for mainly that reason (inability to predict from year to year) that I don't put too much stock into consistency. Probably the only truly consistent player last season was LT and that was because he was scoring nearly 30 points every week. And I wouldn't even call that consistency really.That's just sheer dominance.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Couple of weeks ago I started a thread called consistent vs inconsistent receivers. It started like this:

So last year, Joe T and a bunch of other guys said Evans was over-rated when he was being drafted somewhere around WR 25. He ended up easily a top-10 guy. This year, despite no real reason to project a dropoff (if anything, the other direction makes some sense as he and Lossman build chemistry and there are some improvements to the line), he is usually getting drafted outside of the top 10 (WR) and people STILL call him over-rated, ostensibly because of his "inconsistency".People seem to hate "inconsistent" WRs. They say "Man, I can't afford those ups and downs. The big weeks are great, but too many big disappointments kill a season."OK, so who are these "consistent" receivers?Bottom line? Such an animal is a lot like the unicorn - really nice in theory, but imaginary.Note The following stats are based on a league report from a league with "standard" scoring (.1 pt/yard, 6 pt TDs, no PPR) no PPR. Only "unusual scoring" is a deduction for lost fumbles.I looked at the big complaint about "inconsistent" receivers - total bust weeks. Somewhat arbitrarily, I chose 5 pts or less as a "bust" week. Generally, you want more than that from your starting receivers. If you don't like the cutoff, pick your own - you'll find similar results. So who had them, and who didn't?The top scoring WR from last year (these rankings are all PPG) was "Mr Consistency" Marvin Harrison. He had three weeks where he scored less than 5. He had a 3.8, 2.1, and a .8 (lower than any game by Evans). All in the middle of the season.Steve Smith was #2. While he only had one game below the 5 pt threshold it was a negative point day in our league because of a fumble. He also missed two games because of injury and had several games that just cleared the arbitrary 5 point cutoff. All in all, FAIRLY consistent last year, but certainly not PERFECTLY consistent and he is one of the top picks every year.Owens was #3. 3 games below 5 points. Pretty consistent down the stretch, but still 3 games.Darrell Jackson had 2 of his 13 games played under 5. Not horrible, but I certainly wouldn't label him consistent with his injury history.Housh missed two games and had 3 under 5 points, including most leagues' superbowl week. Ouch.Driver is known as an underrated and fairly consistent WR. 4 games under 5.Chad Johnson, a nearly universal top 3 dynasty WR pick, had 4 games under 5 INCLUDING week 15 last year.The HORRIBLY inconsistent Evans, had 4 games under 5 last year. Only one in the second half of the season (a borderline 4.5 in week 13).Torry "Big Game" Holt, also had 4 games under 5 pts and two more under 6 (including week 15). Hmmmm. I thought for sure Holt would be one of the "consistent" receivers.Javon Walker had 3 under 5 and several squeakers.Colston had 4 games under 5. Not bad for a rookie, but even in a remarkable season, he wasn't very "consistent".Everybody loves Roy Williams, but he had 5 stinkers last year, including THREE IN A ROW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PLAYOFFS. Yikes.Burress had 4 stinkers.Larry Fitzgerald was the one guy you MIGHT be able to call consistent last year with a straight face. He did miss three games, but when he played, he only had one stinker and one close call. But, he is rated the #1 dynasty WR for a reason. I'd also note that in 2005, his best year, he had 3 stinkers (pretty much like everybody else).Ward, another noted model of consistency, had 4 stinkers in 14 games.Horn had 4 in 10.Galloway had 5, including 2 games with zero points.Coles had SEVEN games under 5 and you don't nearly as many guys complain about his inconsistency than Evans'.Boldin, another guy generally considered consistent (at least before 2006) had 4 stinkers and quite a few close calls.Andre Johnson was also in the 4 stinker club - 4 of his last 5 games in fact. THAT didn't help in the playoffs.So there you have the top 21 PPG last year (evans plus 20 more). Where are the consistent receivers? The vast majority of the really good receivers in the game had 4 or more really bad games.The point is, FORGET "consistency". It's a myth. Some guys get the rep, some don't, but they ALL have their ups and downs. Even if a guy does have a year where it just happens he doesn't end up with a couple of really low games, even THAT can't be projected to following years.I'm not saying that some guys aren't a LITTLE more reliable than others. I'm saying that factor is WAY overblown and isn't "consistently" (pun intended) applied when evaluating talented receivers. Aside from Evans, I made the same case in preseason 2005 when people called Santana Moss "inconsistent". I said forget consistency, the guy is talented and has opportunity, go get him on the cheap. He turned out to be THE most consistent (week to week) receiver in the game that year. Go figure.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

Good thread rascal.

 

[lions327]

I think the consistency thing is too hard to predict, because it can be a lot different from one year to the next. Chad Johnson is a perfect example. Last year he had 2 huge weeks and 4 weeks below 5 points in FBG scoring; the year before, only one game below 5 points, with more consistent numbers across the board, but no huge weeks. I'd just as soon use season points and let the "where they fall" take care of themselves, because if you don't, you could find yourself reaching for someone.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'd like to find the Fountain of Youth. Alas, just like "consistent" WRs there is no such thing.

You can find a WRs that are more consistent in a given year, but it doesn't correlate very well with future consistency.

btw...for people in a league where there's no distinction between WRs and TEs. WRs and TEs are exactly the same in terms of inconsistency. I looked at top WRs vs Top TEs (PPR league, 1.5 PPR for TEs) and both had weekly scoring where the Std Dev was about 55% of average PPG.

 

[phthalatemagic]

All based on PPR scoring:

Chad Johnson was the least consistent WR with a SD of 12.9

Lee Evans was the next at 11.6. Some try to torture or finagle the numbers to call him consistent, he isn't. He's good, and he's high scoring, but consistent he is not.

Colston was inconsistent as well (11.1), but I'm factoring in zeros from his injuries. Factor those out and he gets vaulted up the second tier of consistent WRs with a 9.1.

The most consistent WRs in the top 20 ended up being Cotchery (7.2), Plaxico Burress (7.5) and TO (7.8).

It didn't really look like WRs were significantly less consistent than RBs, probably based on the scoring system I evaluated the players on, but the median SD of top 20 RBs was 9.57 and the median SD of top 20 WRs was 9.65.

I'm sure it will change drastically next year, since schedules change from year to year and I'm certain performance and opponent are closely related.

 

[gianmarco]

See, I look at WR consistency a little differently. If you guys want to look for week-to-week consistency, have at it. The WR position, by default, is going to be inconsistent when compared to RB's and QB's. What I look for is year-to-year consistency. In other words, I want the guys that finish near the top year after year. And so while Holt or TO or Harrison or CJ may not finish #1 overall, I KNOW they will be in the top 10 come year's end. I see guys like Santana Moss being inconsistent because of having one good year followed by a disappointing year followed by a good year followed by a disappointing year.

This is obviously tougher to do with the younger guys as they haven't had time to show if they're at that level yet which is why, for the most part, I usually tend to go for older, more proven WR's even if their upside is a little lower. Guys like Ward and DJax and Driver (who, by the way, is easily a top 10 pick) are who I would have leaned on in the past instead of that year's new stud. This is why I have no interest in Evans this year. One season isn't enough for me to believe in him yet. Has nothing to do with his week-to-week inconsistency (which I also believe to be true of him more than others).

 

[Holy Schneikes]

All based on PPR scoring:Chad Johnson was the least consistent WR with a SD of 12.9Lee Evans was the next at 11.6. Some try to torture or finagle the numbers to call him consistent, he isn't. He's good, and he's high scoring, but consistent he is not.Colston was inconsistent as well (11.1), but I'm factoring in zeros from his injuries. Factor those out and he gets vaulted up the second tier of consistent WRs with a 9.1.The most consistent WRs in the top 20 ended up being Cotchery (7.2), Plaxico Burress (7.5) and TO (7.8).It didn't really look like WRs were significantly less consistent than RBs, probably based on the scoring system I evaluated the players on, but the median SD of top 20 RBs was 9.57 and the median SD of top 20 WRs was 9.65.I'm sure it will change drastically next year, since schedules change from year to year and I'm certain performance and opponent are closely related.

Don't need to torture the numbers for Evans. He IS inconsistent. But that's not the point. There are three real points however. 1) For the most part, ALL WRs are fairly inconsistent every year. 2) Even if you DO find a somewhat "consistent" WR in one year, there is no data to suggest that he is any more likely to be "consistent" the year AFTER his consistent year (see Johnson etc.). 3) EVEN IF you could find a consistently consistent WR, you are VERY likely to still be better of with the inconsistent guy who scores just 5 more total points than the consistent guy who scores 5 less (the 5 is arbitrary). Why? Because with somewhere on the order of 7 or 8 "starters" every week, the total points each week will "even out" the ups and downs of the individual performances. A big week from a WR on an otherwise poor day is just as likely to give you an extra win as a poor week on an otherwise good day is to give you an extra loss. The only difference is that people seem to remember the poor weeks more if they happen to "cause" a loss.As for your last sentence, I really doubt you can make a significant corelation between opponent/SOS and "consistency" (however it is measured). In fact using standard deviation, if you find any corelation at all, it will be the opposite of what you are looking for since as total or mean points goes up, SD typically goes up.Bottom line is that WR "consistency" is almost totally irrelavent.

 

[jkruppe]

When I look for WR consistency it means guys I can start in my lineup every single week and not have to worry about trying to guess on match-ups. I know I'm never benching CJ, which is why he's a consistent WR to me.

BTW, for the OP, I would consider Lee Evans a consistent WR.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

See, I look at WR consistency a little differently. If you guys want to look for week-to-week consistency, have at it. The WR position, by default, is going to be inconsistent when compared to RB's and QB's. What I look for is year-to-year consistency. In other words, I want the guys that finish near the top year after year. And so while Holt or TO or Harrison or CJ may not finish #1 overall, I KNOW they will be in the top 10 come year's end. I see guys like Santana Moss being inconsistent because of having one good year followed by a disappointing year followed by a good year followed by a disappointing year.This is obviously tougher to do with the younger guys as they haven't had time to show if they're at that level yet which is why, for the most part, I usually tend to go for older, more proven WR's even if their upside is a little lower. Guys like Ward and DJax and Driver (who, by the way, is easily a top 10 pick) are who I would have leaned on in the past instead of that year's new stud. This is why I have no interest in Evans this year. One season isn't enough for me to believe in him yet. Has nothing to do with his week-to-week inconsistency (which I also believe to be true of him more than others).

Nothing wrong with looking for/preferring guys with a proven track record. That's a solid approach to the game. Personally I don't mind looking for guys like Evans and Moss just because I think there is value to be had there. Also, I look for trends and while the vets are generally fairly reliable, at some point the wheels do fall off. I'm not sure I'd want to count on a guy like Djax with injury issues on a new team over a guy like Evans who has gotten better every year for three years on the same team. I'd much prefer Evans to Ward as well - same thing - new offense, and up-and comer on the other side etc. Driver does seem to outperform his draft status every year so it's hard to argue there.For Moss, his disappointing years pretty much happen to be injury years. Other than that, he has put up pretty solid numbers. People forget he had a 1000 yards season for the Jets, followed by an 840 yard "off" year where he missed a couple of games. Then the monster year and then last year where injuries again took their toll. If people avoid him because of injuries, I can buy that. But when he's healthy, he "consistently" puts up good seasons.

 

[Yitbos69]

Check this out....It is for WR consistency....but also has links to QB,RB,TE

http://thehuddle.com/x7/articles/dmd-con-wr.php

 

[gheemony]

Go to FFTODAY.com and check out Matt Waldman's Consistency Rank (CRANK) Scores. I have some issues with his exact formulation, but there is promise. But the main question I have, do CRANK scores from year N correlate to CRANK scores in year N+1. That's what matters. I have a feeling that it's random because TDs skew week-to-week scoring and TDs are not consistent from year-to-year. If you want consistency, find WRs that get lots of points from yards. That is more likely to be consistent week-to-week than TDs (especially when the #1 WR rarely averages more than 1 TD a week).