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WR Dynasty Value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter scramblin
- Start date
I was in the pool
Footballguy
Nicks
Julio
Jennings
Roddy
Andre
Julio
Jennings
Roddy
Andre
Concept Coop
Footballguy
JulioNicksJohnsonJenningsWhiteJackson
VJax not even worth mentioning?!
doombringer
Footballguy
Nicks
Julio
Andre
Jennings
vjax
roddy
Julio
Andre
Jennings
vjax
roddy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
PPR vs. Standard also plays a part.
I love Julio in any format, but in standard formats, he is an elite dynasty option. Roddy is a target magnet, and Jones will lose some minor value in PPR leagues. But his is a big play weapon and will be scoring a lot of TDs, especially when defenses have to decide who to double cover. His PPG average in standard formats is incredibly high.
Standard leagues, there is a case for him being top anywhere from #2 - #6.
I love Julio in any format, but in standard formats, he is an elite dynasty option. Roddy is a target magnet, and Jones will lose some minor value in PPR leagues. But his is a big play weapon and will be scoring a lot of TDs, especially when defenses have to decide who to double cover. His PPG average in standard formats is incredibly high.
Standard leagues, there is a case for him being top anywhere from #2 - #6.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Am I correct in assuming that AJ Green is ahead of all those guys?
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Shutout
Footballguy
The key to this quesiton is 3-5 years projecting. Without getting too complicated and trying to think of which players may change teams, etc,:
Nicks-Its reasonable that this team retains all the key teammates and the team is normally competitive. They play in a division where scoring points in bunches is the way to win. Nicks is a top shelf talent.
Julio-Very similar to the New York situation except there is an unknown in the coaching aspect in that they lose their OC and people ARE beginning to talk about Mike Smith because they can't win in the playoffs (I don't agree with people being upset..he is a good coach..but the talk IS there). Roddy is getting older and Gonzo and Turner is all but gone. Those make huge POTENTIAL negatives in what Julio may be able to do as right now he doesn't have to be doubled or carry the load..may not always be the case.
AJ-He is a very youthful 30 that has unique tools. He can DOMINATE games. If he was 2 years younger, I would would put him at the top of this list and not blink. He has a great surrounding cast of talented teammates.
Jennings-Has everything you want in terms of coaches and teammates. Only thing holding him back is Packers philosophy..Unlike teams like carolina and Washington and some of those, this just isn't a team that is willing to let one player be a one man show. So his upside is capped (but anyone would still take it happily). To me, Jennings is the new Reggie Wayne: Always going to be top 10. Always going to be dependable. Won't blow all the other WRs out of the water. Will, for the most part, be under appreciated because he is boringly steady.
Roddy-Like AJ, his age works against him when you ask 3-5 years out, plus he has the same problem Julio does in the unknown of the team makeup of the Falcons for the next 3-5 years. Plus he actually has Julio pushing him much like Wayne/Harrison back in the day. He is the lowest on my list.
Left VJAX off on purpose because it IS up in the air on where he plays for the next 3-5 and that is known right now, today. He could easily be the #2 guy on this list in the right spot. Heck, let him sign in Carolina or St. louis and he may be THE guy on the list. But the odds are against it so I find him very hard to predict until we know where he plays. If he stays in San Diego, he showed us this year that he has the potential to be dominant, pending on how his team uses him. He absolutely could be AJ if he played for the Texans and AJ did not. Its VERY situational for him. But seeing as to how he was a top 12 WR this year, despite his hit and miss games, injuries, etc, I would probably take him over Roddy, at least, for the next 3-5.
Nicks-Its reasonable that this team retains all the key teammates and the team is normally competitive. They play in a division where scoring points in bunches is the way to win. Nicks is a top shelf talent.
Julio-Very similar to the New York situation except there is an unknown in the coaching aspect in that they lose their OC and people ARE beginning to talk about Mike Smith because they can't win in the playoffs (I don't agree with people being upset..he is a good coach..but the talk IS there). Roddy is getting older and Gonzo and Turner is all but gone. Those make huge POTENTIAL negatives in what Julio may be able to do as right now he doesn't have to be doubled or carry the load..may not always be the case.
AJ-He is a very youthful 30 that has unique tools. He can DOMINATE games. If he was 2 years younger, I would would put him at the top of this list and not blink. He has a great surrounding cast of talented teammates.
Jennings-Has everything you want in terms of coaches and teammates. Only thing holding him back is Packers philosophy..Unlike teams like carolina and Washington and some of those, this just isn't a team that is willing to let one player be a one man show. So his upside is capped (but anyone would still take it happily). To me, Jennings is the new Reggie Wayne: Always going to be top 10. Always going to be dependable. Won't blow all the other WRs out of the water. Will, for the most part, be under appreciated because he is boringly steady.
Roddy-Like AJ, his age works against him when you ask 3-5 years out, plus he has the same problem Julio does in the unknown of the team makeup of the Falcons for the next 3-5 years. Plus he actually has Julio pushing him much like Wayne/Harrison back in the day. He is the lowest on my list.
Left VJAX off on purpose because it IS up in the air on where he plays for the next 3-5 and that is known right now, today. He could easily be the #2 guy on this list in the right spot. Heck, let him sign in Carolina or St. louis and he may be THE guy on the list. But the odds are against it so I find him very hard to predict until we know where he plays. If he stays in San Diego, he showed us this year that he has the potential to be dominant, pending on how his team uses him. He absolutely could be AJ if he played for the Texans and AJ did not. Its VERY situational for him. But seeing as to how he was a top 12 WR this year, despite his hit and miss games, injuries, etc, I would probably take him over Roddy, at least, for the next 3-5.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
PPR - yes. Standard, I am torn between he and Julio.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Always get a chuckle out of how little respect Roddy gets in these discussions. People always seems to be a good reason to justify his dynasty rank, yet, when it is all played out, there he is in the top 5 again. AGAIN.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
nicks
Julio
Roddy
AJ
Jennings
Vjax
Julio
Roddy
AJ
Jennings
Vjax
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az_prof
Footballguy
First, I don't think it is worthwhile to try to project beyond 3 years. There was a long discussion of this in the dynasty thread about four years ago and that was the conclusion. The reason being that injuries, changes in offense, changes in personnel, etc, make it hard to predict performance beyond a three year horizon.
So, given three years, and given the fact that elite WRs start to decline around age 32-33, I would rank these guys thus.
R. White (at age 30, his age should not be a factor in the next three year window. He has been a top 10 WR for the past 5 years and consistency is wort a LOT.
H. Nicks: Nick and J. Jones are almost identical in terms of per game/fantasy scoring (ppr) and age. Basically, I would rank them the same but if I give an edge it is to Nicks because he has proven he can do it two years in a row and because I like Eli better than Ryan.
J. Jones: Great player and great future. Truly, the top three are almost interchangeable and depends on how you are building your team. If you are starting out I might rank Jones and Nicks ahead of Roddy. But if I am in "win now" mode for this year and next, I prefer Roddy as a more proven and consistent performer.
A. Johnson: he is 30 but I expect him to continue to perform at a high level over the next three years. His biggest ? mark is health as he always seem dinged up. When healthy, he is a top 5 WR and that still makes him worth a lot.
G. Jennings: at 28 his age is not a factor. My concern is that he has to share looks with a lot of other good WRs and long term I like Cobb to emerge. He does have a great QB but that is outweighed by the competition for looks. He should be a 10-20 guy for the next three years but I doubt he is a top 10 guy for many of those years.
V. Jackson: at 29 his age is not a factor--he is in his prime. He has some knucklehead concerns. But most concerning to me is his long term contract situation and where he will be playing. If he leaves SD, I expect his production to decline rather than increase.
So, given three years, and given the fact that elite WRs start to decline around age 32-33, I would rank these guys thus.
R. White (at age 30, his age should not be a factor in the next three year window. He has been a top 10 WR for the past 5 years and consistency is wort a LOT.
H. Nicks: Nick and J. Jones are almost identical in terms of per game/fantasy scoring (ppr) and age. Basically, I would rank them the same but if I give an edge it is to Nicks because he has proven he can do it two years in a row and because I like Eli better than Ryan.
J. Jones: Great player and great future. Truly, the top three are almost interchangeable and depends on how you are building your team. If you are starting out I might rank Jones and Nicks ahead of Roddy. But if I am in "win now" mode for this year and next, I prefer Roddy as a more proven and consistent performer.
A. Johnson: he is 30 but I expect him to continue to perform at a high level over the next three years. His biggest ? mark is health as he always seem dinged up. When healthy, he is a top 5 WR and that still makes him worth a lot.
G. Jennings: at 28 his age is not a factor. My concern is that he has to share looks with a lot of other good WRs and long term I like Cobb to emerge. He does have a great QB but that is outweighed by the competition for looks. He should be a 10-20 guy for the next three years but I doubt he is a top 10 guy for many of those years.
V. Jackson: at 29 his age is not a factor--he is in his prime. He has some knucklehead concerns. But most concerning to me is his long term contract situation and where he will be playing. If he leaves SD, I expect his production to decline rather than increase.
Julio Jones
Andre Johnson
Hakeem Nicks
Greg Jennings
Roddy White
Vincent Jackson
- Julio Jones, in my opinion, is head and shoulders above all of these players. To take it a step further, I'm not sure that Julio shouldn't be the #2 receiver right now after Calvin Johnson (yes, that means ahead of Fitz, A.J. Green, and Dez). At the very least, he's in the limited discussion with those players while none of the other people on this list are
- Andre Johnson, while 30, still has 3-5 years of top shelf production left. His game isn't based purely on speed, which will give him a longer shelf life than some other players (think Terrell Owens). If he were younger, he would be first on this list, but alas he is not and the gap between Julio and him is large due to the age difference
- People are discounting Nicks far too much due to Victor Cruz' performance in 2011. Nicks is still a great player, even if I do think he is somewhat overrated. I don't feel he is on the same talent plane as the Calvin's, Fitz's, Julio's, A.J. Green's, etc... of the world and many people do, hence why I feel he is overrated, but he is still a great player on a great offense with a dependable quarterback throwing to him. There is no reason to think any of that changes in the next 3-5 years
- I believe Greg Jennings is roughly as talented as Hakeem Nicks and on an even better offense, which would make it seem like he should be ranked higher. However, Jennings suffers from Green Bay having so many weapons to choose from which somewhat caps his potential. I say somewhat because he still obviously can put up top shelf production, as evidenced by how he played this year while healthy. The main difference between Nicks and Jennings is that Nicks strikes me as a much better red zone target, making him a more consistent bet for touchdown production and less affected by an offense that spreads the ball around (I do think the Giants will continue to spread it as they did this year, but Nicks will sustain himself due to the extra short yardage touchdowns he will get on a yearly basis)
-Roddy White is a player whose value is declining slightly. So much of his production is based on the huge volume of targets he receives and the only way he will continue to receive that same volume of targets is if he continues to remain the unquestioned best receiver on his team. Considering the fact that I think Julio Jones is simply a more talented player, I expect White's volume of targets to begin dropping as soon as next season. While I don't expect his production to fall off the face of the earth, I do think White's days as a top level fantasy receiver are over and he will have less production, and thus less value, then all of the players ahead of him on this list
- Vincent Jackson isn't a player that belongs with the other players on this list to me. While he has all the physical traits you could ever want from a receiver, he has never consistently put those traits to use to produce a top shelf season of production. While he is still plenty useful for a fantasy football team, I'm not willing to bet that he suddenly puts it together consistently enough to have more value than any of the other players on this list. Sure, he could end up in a perfect situation and thrive, but I wouldn't bet on it when the other options seem to be much safer and at least equal choices.
Andre Johnson
Hakeem Nicks
Greg Jennings
Roddy White
Vincent Jackson
- Julio Jones, in my opinion, is head and shoulders above all of these players. To take it a step further, I'm not sure that Julio shouldn't be the #2 receiver right now after Calvin Johnson (yes, that means ahead of Fitz, A.J. Green, and Dez). At the very least, he's in the limited discussion with those players while none of the other people on this list are
- Andre Johnson, while 30, still has 3-5 years of top shelf production left. His game isn't based purely on speed, which will give him a longer shelf life than some other players (think Terrell Owens). If he were younger, he would be first on this list, but alas he is not and the gap between Julio and him is large due to the age difference
- People are discounting Nicks far too much due to Victor Cruz' performance in 2011. Nicks is still a great player, even if I do think he is somewhat overrated. I don't feel he is on the same talent plane as the Calvin's, Fitz's, Julio's, A.J. Green's, etc... of the world and many people do, hence why I feel he is overrated, but he is still a great player on a great offense with a dependable quarterback throwing to him. There is no reason to think any of that changes in the next 3-5 years
- I believe Greg Jennings is roughly as talented as Hakeem Nicks and on an even better offense, which would make it seem like he should be ranked higher. However, Jennings suffers from Green Bay having so many weapons to choose from which somewhat caps his potential. I say somewhat because he still obviously can put up top shelf production, as evidenced by how he played this year while healthy. The main difference between Nicks and Jennings is that Nicks strikes me as a much better red zone target, making him a more consistent bet for touchdown production and less affected by an offense that spreads the ball around (I do think the Giants will continue to spread it as they did this year, but Nicks will sustain himself due to the extra short yardage touchdowns he will get on a yearly basis)
-Roddy White is a player whose value is declining slightly. So much of his production is based on the huge volume of targets he receives and the only way he will continue to receive that same volume of targets is if he continues to remain the unquestioned best receiver on his team. Considering the fact that I think Julio Jones is simply a more talented player, I expect White's volume of targets to begin dropping as soon as next season. While I don't expect his production to fall off the face of the earth, I do think White's days as a top level fantasy receiver are over and he will have less production, and thus less value, then all of the players ahead of him on this list
- Vincent Jackson isn't a player that belongs with the other players on this list to me. While he has all the physical traits you could ever want from a receiver, he has never consistently put those traits to use to produce a top shelf season of production. While he is still plenty useful for a fantasy football team, I'm not willing to bet that he suddenly puts it together consistently enough to have more value than any of the other players on this list. Sure, he could end up in a perfect situation and thrive, but I wouldn't bet on it when the other options seem to be much safer and at least equal choices.
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Warpig
Footballguy
Nicks - #1 WR on his team and youngJackson - #1 WR on his team (in his prime)Jennings - #1 WR on his team and they like to throw the ball a lot. Has other good receivers to compete with.Andre - #1 WR on his team. Would be higher but age and injuries are a factorWhite - #1 WR on his team and has to compete with Julio. Loss of Mularkey brings questionsJones - #2 WR on his team. He and Roddy negate each other. Loss of Mularkey.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Food for thought, Jennings is a free agent after next season.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I think Julio and Nicks are clearly the top 2 in a dynasty and Vjax last. others any order
az_prof
Footballguy
And VJax is an unrestricted FA this season, right?
jurb26
Footballguy
J. Jones - only Calvin and Green are ahead of him on my list right now.
Nicks - would be nice to see some consistency out of this guy but I think he's the best of this group.
Jennings - top WR on one of the top offenses with the best QB in the game.
A. Johnson - super talent, needs to stay healthy.
V. Jackson - underrated IMO.
White - will soon be supplanted by Jones, maybe already has.
Nicks - would be nice to see some consistency out of this guy but I think he's the best of this group.
Jennings - top WR on one of the top offenses with the best QB in the game.
A. Johnson - super talent, needs to stay healthy.
V. Jackson - underrated IMO.
White - will soon be supplanted by Jones, maybe already has.
Shutout
Footballguy
I don't think anyone disrespected him here. The OP asked for a five year prospectus and at age 30, that leaves Roddy being prospected out to age 35 while all the other guys are younger and a few are much younger. Combine that Roddy has Julio to compete with as the #1 WR on that team and Atlanta, as a team, is the one that has the most question marks in terms of the coaching and surrounding talent (their ages) and it just makes him hard to forecast out highly relative to the others on the list when we are talking about 5 years from now. Speaking of Julio. The guy has a bright future but I'm really surprised people are putting him on as high a pedestal as some are. He had a nice last month but it wasn't "special". It was no better than the month Colston, Jordy Nelson, or some guys like that turned in. I think people need to realize that this is a different NFL and things are very situational as to when and how teams are playing. For a little used rookie to come in and have a very nice month doesn't impress me nearly as much as when you visually see and know a guy has just taken another step (like Antonio Brown this year or Fitz in that playoff year where he just became unstoppable). Honestly, during the final month of the season, the guy that really caught my eye was Percy Harvin. but I understand, its more fashinable to talk about rookies upside than it is to talk about other guys usually.Always get a chuckle out of how little respect Roddy gets in these discussions. People always seems to be a good reason to justify his dynasty rank, yet, when it is all played out, there he is in the top 5 again. AGAIN.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He got 30% of his teams targets - highest in the NFL. How long do you think that continues, when Jones is more productive per target?Always get a chuckle out of how little respect Roddy gets in these discussions. People always seems to be a good reason to justify his dynasty rank, yet, when it is all played out, there he is in the top 5 again. AGAIN.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
Here's why I am high on Julio.I don't think anyone disrespected him here. The OP asked for a five year prospectus and at age 30, that leaves Roddy being prospected out to age 35 while all the other guys are younger and a few are much younger. Combine that Roddy has Julio to compete with as the #1 WR on that team and Atlanta, as a team, is the one that has the most question marks in terms of the coaching and surrounding talent (their ages) and it just makes him hard to forecast out highly relative to the others on the list when we are talking about 5 years from now. Speaking of Julio. The guy has a bright future but I'm really surprised people are putting him on as high a pedestal as some are. He had a nice last month but it wasn't "special". It was no better than the month Colston, Jordy Nelson, or some guys like that turned in. I think people need to realize that this is a different NFL and things are very situational as to when and how teams are playing.Always get a chuckle out of how little respect Roddy gets in these discussions. People always seems to be a good reason to justify his dynasty rank, yet, when it is all played out, there he is in the top 5 again. AGAIN.
For a little used rookie to come in and have a very nice month doesn't impress me nearly as much as when you visually see and know a guy has just taken another step (like Antonio Brown this year or Fitz in that playoff year where he just became unstoppable). Honestly, during the final month of the season, the guy that really caught my eye was Percy Harvin. but I understand, its more fashinable to talk about rookies upside than it is to talk about other guys usually.
His game speed is eye popping. It looks like he is a genuine threat to take it all the way anytime. I don't think Colston or Jordy fit that description. Add in the fact that he's got great size and quality deep ball tracking, and there's a lot to like.
Also it was more than just a month's worth of work.
Take a look at his game logs.
WK1 5/67
WK2 2/29
WK3 6/115
WK4 11/127
WK5 1/16 Hamstring injury
WK6 DNP
WK7 DNP
WK8 BYE
WK9 3/131/2
WK10 2/9 Hamstring injury
WK11 DNP
WK12 0/0
WK13 4/68
WK14 3/104/2
WK15 5/85/1
WK16 8/128/1
WK17 4/76/2
So after week 2, his healthy games (bolded) read like this: 44/834/8 in 8 games. That doesn't mean I'm expecting 88/1668/16 next year, but it does show he was a beast as a rookie when he was healthy.
Synesthesia
Footballguy
*snip*I think the "WRs start to decline at age __________" trope is the wrong way of looking at it. I think a much better way of looking at it is "every year after age 28, WRs have an X% chance of seeing a major decline in NFL talent". In other words, a WR's chances of still being elite at 29 are (1-X), while his chances of still being elite at 30 are (1-X)^2, and his chances at age 31 are (1-X)^3, and so on down the line. I believe this model more accurately reflects real-world NFL trends, where elite WRs experience their dropoffs at wildly disparate times- 28 for Andre Rison, 30 for Amani Toomer and Eric Moulds, 32 for Torry Holt, 33 for Joe Horn and Randy Moss, 34 for Hines Ward, 35 for Marvin Harrison, 36 for Rod Smith, 37 for Isaac Bruce and Joey Galloway, 38 for Terrell Owens, 41 for Jerry Rice, etc. Instead of envisioning WRs as smooth and predictable trend lines (we envision young players' future careers as a steady upward slope, followed by a plateau, followed by a steady downward slope), I think it's more instructive to think of WRs as ticking time bombs. You know at some point there is going to be a sudden and unpredictable erosion in their skills which will decimate their fantasy value. You have no idea when this erosion will come. Therefore, holding onto WRs becomes a game of craps, where you roll the dice every season and hope they don't come up snake eyes. Andre Johnson might continue being productive until well after his 35th birthday, like Terrell Owens... or he might wind up imploding in 2 years, like Torry Holt. At this point, we have no idea which shape his career will take, but we can be certain that dismissing his age as irrelevant essentially amounts to failing to accurately price risk into our evaluation of him, which is not a good thing.Of course, at the same time, similar risks apply to young players like Jones. It's easy for us to anticipate steady improvement, but the simple fact is that a lot of young WRs simply don't improve in a straight line like you'd expect. Guys like Brandon Lloyd, Michael Clayton, Michael Crabtree, Roy Williams, Rod Gardner, etc. have all failed to show the improvements that dynasty owners assumed were essentially their birthrights early in their careers. And even some guys who have grown into their full potential such as Andre Johnson have done so in major fits and starts.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
not to hijack thread, but..3-5 years? I think you toss out Andre Johnson and V. Jackson, and addD. Thomas and K. BrittJohnson is going to be a great value pick in the years to come, but with his injury history, his days as a top WR are numbered ..Thomas is the next great NFL WR, IMO, and K. Britt is an up-n-coming stud WR as we witnessed during the first few games of this past season, he was a beast..these guys will be around for a long long time..for your list I'd goJulio - was there a better WR in terms of TD/reception ratio in the entire NFL? don't have the stats, but I doubt anyone was better..JenningsWhite - proven commodityNicks - streakyAJ - injuries and lack of TDs ( how many years has he had double-digit TDs, if any)Vjax... never has been never will be.
