"WR is sooooo deep this year!" - is it though? Discuss (1 Viewer)

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Intersection of sleeper list and never again list:

Mike Williams

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

 I do a live zoom every Sunday where it's just me in my boxers cursing at the TV for twelve straight hours.

Why would I possibly pay for this when I own a mirror? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Intersection of sleeper list and never again list:

Mike Williams

Well said. 

 

[wgoldsph]

Why would I possibly pay for this when I own a mirror? 

I've got some nice man boobs. 

 

[Deamon]

I haven't heard much about WR being deep this year.  If anything, RB is deep (er than it was last year).  I think there's a pretty big drop off after the big 5 WR's, and an even bigger drop off after the big 15.

 

[Anarchy99]

I give you crap in the NE posts because my irrational Meyers love, but in all honesty you really know your stuff. Glad I don't have to go up against you anywhere.

I ended up taking Meyers in a couple of very deep PPR leagues . . . as in 16 teams, start 5-6 WR. So yeah, in a league like that when you can get a WR45 at WR70 prices, you take it.

 

[Ilov80s]

Kittle or Kelce? 

I mean Kittle made a difference last year; just not in a good way. 

Yeah, definitely meant Kelce

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I haven't heard much about WR being deep this year.  If anything, RB is deep (er than it was last year).  I think there's a pretty big drop off after the big 5 WR's, and an even bigger drop off after the big 15.

I’ve seen dozens of people say it on this very board.

I sort of agree, but I sort of don’t. I think it is deep, but in a somewhat flat way in that many of the upside guys are all going at similar ADP.

and many rounds there are 1-2 guys worth grabbing & I suspect many folks targeting them. 

I feel very fortunate in that my only redraft is IDP with balanced scoring, so I’ll see tons of value slide at WR (and TE & RB) since elite LBs score like RBs and start going mid-5th, which throws ADP into total chaos. 

Interesting discussion though. I’m inclined to agree that it’s more about tiered scoring & trying to land the WRs with a high weekly floor instead of looking for breakouts if you invested elsewhere early. More focus on avoiding busts, really. 

 

[wgoldsph]

I ended up taking Meyers in a couple of very deep PPR leagues . . . as in 16 teams, start 5-6 WR. So yeah, in a league like that when you can get a WR45 at WR70 prices, you take it.

I have to keep reminding myself that leagues like that aren't the norm - my main league is 16 team dynasty idp start 3-4 WR, with roster sizes of 30-35 players not counting an unlimited three year taxi squad (as long as you put the player there prior to when their rookie season starts) ...

Makes the end-of-roster guys much more valuable, especially when injuries hit.   Last season Jamison Crowder was my wr1 for a while after a rash of injuries and with ppr and points per first down scoring he held the spot well for a few weeks.

 

[Team Chaos]

My last two championships were with WW QBs. Heck the highest scoring team I ever had (3 straight over 200, & our league record was like 189) was with Kyle Orton at QB. Who remembers the 5 TD MNF? And bc it’s the Bears, they benched him when Cutler got healthy. So I went into the playoffs with something like Alex Smith & Smokin’ Jay, and still won in a cakewalk.

TBC, I’ve never had another season like that, before or after. But it. Was. Glorious. 

I believe the Bears included Orton in the trade for Cutler, so they were not on the team at the same time. It was Grossman that kept getting put in over Orton. All Orton did was win games, but “Grossman is our Quarterback” was Lovie’s mantra. 

 

[Tanner9919]

we're forgetting Elijah Moore , he's tearing it up so far. AJ Brown says he'll bet a gameday check that Moore wins OROY award. 

Moore, Higgins, Cooks, Aiyuk, Slim Reaper, Waddle, is the DeShaun Jackson/Stafford connection as good as they say? if so djax gonna shine this year,  Ruggs is making good of camp, Jeudy is too, 

S. Sheperd

Gage is a good call

Lazard

Mecole Hardman

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

we're forgetting Elijah Moore , he's tearing it up so far. AJ Brown says he'll bet a gameday check that Moore wins OROY award. 

Moore, Higgins, Cooks, Aiyuk, Slim Reaper, Waddle, is the DeShaun Jackson/Stafford connection as good as they say? if so djax gonna shine this year,  Ruggs is making good of camp, Jeudy is too, 

S. Sheperd

Gage is a good call

Lazard

Mecole Hardman

The early part of this list has quite a few guys sneaking into the fifth round. The later part of this list has a ton of land mines who could sink you if you’re depending on them as a  WR3.

I do agree with others grabbing two or three from the late list and one from the earlier list is probably a sound plan. You only I really need 2 of them to hit.

 

[wgoldsph]

Lazard

Nope.  No no no.  He tops out at 40/400/4 with three big games that happen randomly.  Firmly waiver wire material.

 

[-jb-]

Nope.  No no no.  He tops out at 40/400/4 with three big games that happen randomly.  Firmly waiver wire material.

See also: mecole hardman 

 

[Bald Bull]

1. Aiyuk 

2. OBJ

3. Golladay

4. Higgins

 5. Sutton

6. Jeudy

7. DeVonta Smith                              

 8. D.J. Chark

9. Robby Anderson

10. Tyler Boyd

11. Antonio Brown

 12. Shenault Jr.

13. Elijah Moore

14. Mecole Hardman

15. Russel Gage                     

16. Darnell Mooney                    

17. Gallup

18    Brandin Cooks                             

19.  Jarvis Landry                                                    

20.   Jaylen Waddle

Notable mention that can change as season gets closer: Callaway, St. Brown, Ruggs, Pittman, and Bryan Edwards

DND list: Juju, Mike Williams

 

[BobbyLayne]

I believe the Bears included Orton in the trade for Cutler, so they were not on the team at the same time. It was Grossman that kept getting put in over Orton. All Orton did was win games, but “Grossman is our Quarterback” was Lovie’s mantra. 

you’re right it was Josh McCown

 

[wlwiles]

What I'm seeing in mocks and sim drafts is that there appears to be a huge feeling of "fear of missing out" on WRs.  I'm seeing WR5s being drafted before people take their RB3, so guys like Corey Davis/Devonta Smith/Waddle/Fuller are being drafted before RoJo/Melvin/Mostert and the big handcuffs (Dillon/Jamaal/Pollard etc) are going after guys like Ruggs/Pittman/Bateman.  Not saying that's wrong, it's just different than it used to be.  Instead of loading up on RBs early and then grabbing value WRs late, I'm seeing everyone end their draft with 7-8 WRs and only 4-5 RBs.  There's too many WRs late that are what ifs from a consistency standpoint but they've got lotto potential, so everyone is throwing multiple darts to increase hit %.  

In redrafts my MO is usually to draft as many RBs as I can and only draft one more WR than I can start, so never more than 4-5 total WRs - if a WR injury happens then there's always someone available on waivers in a pinch.  But with how many total WRs I'm seeing drafted now, your waiver options are gonna be Cephus/Mims/Van Jefferson because everybody and their momma with WR as their designation is getting drafted.    

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1. Aiyuk 

haven’t yet seen him make it out of the 5th in my many mocks. 

2. OBJ

I like him at his ADP, but mot sure what his upside is in that offense. Feels like maybe he is what he is at this point. Which is fair for his ADP, but not world-beater FF WR1 for your team. 

3. Golladay

hesitant to trust this dude. Not only for the hip, but for his QB. I’m hoping I’m wrong because I’m a DJones SF shareholder. 

4. Higgins

 5. Sutton

6. Jeudy

I love all 3 of these players at their ADP, but as I said previously in here, #s 2-6 is basically a tier, and you get to pick exactly 1 in the 6th round. Odds are you can’t have 2 items from this menu. 

imm call this tier “broccoli beef”. Because while the Kung pao looks good, not everyone in the family likes spicy. Little billy wants orange chicken, but mom says it has too much sugar. And dad’s favorite is the mushroom veggie dish, but he’s on an island. So everyone agrees on broccoli beef. 

7. DeVonta Smith                              

 8. D.J. Chark

9. Robby Anderson

10. Tyler Boyd

This seems to be another tier/grouping on the menu. This is the “pot stickers” group. Again, some might want egg rolls, some want fried wonton, but everyone loves potstickers. Of this menu I like Boyd the best, as the other 3 aren’t very trustworthy. Smith is the upside play, but IIRC he’s missed some time with injury, and I’m not sure Hurts is a good enough QB to make Smith FF relevant. 

11. Antonio Brown

AB gets his own tier. He’s “wonton soup”. I’m ordering him whether the rest of the family wants any or not. He’s old for the NFL, but the connection with Brady is legit & he really came on at the end of the season. 

 12. Shenault Jr.

13. Elijah Moore

14. Mecole Hardman

15. Russel Gage               
 

This the “vegetable dish” tier. Mom said we had to have a veggie dish, so here we are. We’re not excited about it & there’s a good chance it’s not great, but each has upside. Maybe the cook used a particularly good sauce?  

what’s Laviska in that offense? Will Gage really get enough of the targets left by Julio to be worthy of someone’s WR3? Is Zach Wilson going to produce a FF-caliber starter? Is a 3rd year Hardman breakout pending?  Of this menu I probably order the side of Hardman, and hope he’s a 4th dish I don’t need to eat, but it’s nice to have it on the table if I’m still hungry.’

16. Darnell Mooney                    

17. Gallup

18    Brandin Cooks                             

19.  Jarvis Landry                                                    

20.   Jaylen Waddle

this might be my favorite group - Cooks has proved he can do it with anyone. Gallup’s RL WR3 designation shies people away. Landry is a safe but completely unexciting PPR pick. High weekly floor. Waddle is the upside rookie, and again peripheral talent on the team might be an issue.  This is the “fortune cookie” tier, and even though there’s 7 people in your party, they only gave you 5 cookies. :(  

Notable mention that can change as season gets closer: Callaway, St. Brown, Ruggs, Pittman, and Bryan Edwards

Pittman is going higher than several players above on the list. I feel a breakout coming. I’ve been wrong before.  

otherwise, this is the “I ate one too many potstickers and need a Tums” tier. 

The challenge here is that most of the league is targeting many of these same players. And from mocking I can say petty confidently that there’s a good chance that if a WR run starts, you’ll miss entire tiers at a time. 

And what’s especially challenging is that at some point in our drafts we’re going to have to hold our noses and take a few of these guys over RB or TE that might arguably be better value. But if we don’t take them, we’re on to the next tier because they consistently go near their ADP. Most of the guys in this list won’t slide too much. 

That’s why I struggle with the idea that this year is so deep. Because while there are a LOT of WRs, in a start 3 + flex league, they can dry up quickly, and many of these groupings go within a few picks of each other.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What I'm seeing in mocks and sim drafts is that there appears to be a huge feeling of "fear of missing out" on WRs.  I'm seeing WR5s being drafted before people take their RB3, so guys like Corey Davis/Devonta Smith/Waddle/Fuller are being drafted before RoJo/Melvin/Mostert and the big handcuffs (Dillon/Jamaal/Pollard etc) are going after guys like Ruggs/Pittman/Bateman.  Not saying that's wrong, it's just different than it used to be.  Instead of loading up on RBs early and then grabbing value WRs late, I'm seeing everyone end their draft with 7-8 WRs and only 4-5 RBs.  There's too many WRs late that are what ifs from a consistency standpoint but they've got lotto potential, so everyone is throwing multiple darts to increase hit %.  
 

it’s a good observation. I’ve seen the same. Rookie WRs get reached for a lot too - everyone tryna get that “next Jefferson” & catch lightning in a bottle. 

 

[Bald Bull]

What I'm seeing in mocks and sim drafts is that there appears to be a huge feeling of "fear of missing out" on WRs.  I'm seeing WR5s being drafted before people take their RB3, so guys like Corey Davis/Devonta Smith/Waddle/Fuller are being drafted before RoJo/Melvin/Mostert and the big handcuffs (Dillon/Jamaal/Pollard etc) are going after guys like Ruggs/Pittman/Bateman.  Not saying that's wrong, it's just different than it used to be.  Instead of loading up on RBs early and then grabbing value WRs late, I'm seeing everyone end their draft with 7-8 WRs and only 4-5 RBs.  There's too many WRs late that are what ifs from a consistency standpoint but they've got lotto potential, so everyone is throwing multiple darts to increase hit %.  

In redrafts my MO is usually to draft as many RBs as I can and only draft one more WR than I can start, so never more than 4-5 total WRs - if a WR injury happens then there's always someone available on waivers in a pinch.  But with how many total WRs I'm seeing drafted now, your waiver options are gonna be Cephus/Mims/Van Jefferson because everybody and their momma with WR as their designation is getting drafted.    

it’s a good observation. I’ve seen the same. Rookie WRs get reached for a lot too - everyone tryna get that “next Jefferson” & catch lightning in a bottle. 

I agree 100%. These ADPs can be thrown off by a few rounds when people start reaching. We just have to adapt with the draft. 

 

[-jb-]

haven’t yet seen him make it out of the 5th in my many mocks. 

I like him at his ADP, but mot sure what his upside is in that offense. Feels like maybe he is what he is at this point. Which is fair for his ADP, but not world-beater FF WR1 for your team. 

hesitant to trust this dude. Not only for the hip, but for his QB. I’m hoping I’m wrong because I’m a DJones SF shareholder. 

I love all 3 of these players at their ADP, but as I said previously in here, #s 2-6 is basically a tier, and you get to pick exactly 1 in the 6th round. Odds are you can’t have 2 items from this menu. 

imm call this tier “broccoli beef”. Because while the Kung pao looks good, not everyone in the family likes spicy. Little billy wants orange chicken, but mom says it has too much sugar. And dad’s favorite is the mushroom veggie dish, but he’s on an island. So everyone agrees on broccoli beef. 

This seems to be another tier/grouping on the menu. This is the “pot stickers” group. Again, some might want egg rolls, some want fried wonton, but everyone loves potstickers. Of this menu I like Boyd the best, as the other 3 aren’t very trustworthy. Smith is the upside play, but IIRC he’s missed some time with injury, and I’m not sure Hurts is a good enough QB to make Smith FF relevant. 

AB gets his own tier. He’s “wonton soup”. I’m ordering him whether the rest of the family wants any or not. He’s old for the NFL, but the connection with Brady is legit & he really came on at the end of the season. 

This the “vegetable dish” tier. Mom said we had to have a veggie dish, so here we are. We’re not excited about it & there’s a good chance it’s not great, but each has upside. Maybe the cook used a particularly good sauce?  

what’s Laviska in that offense? Will Gage really get enough of the targets left by Julio to be worthy of someone’s WR3? Is Zach Wilson going to produce a FF-caliber starter? Is a 3rd year Hardman breakout pending?  Of this menu I probably order the side of Hardman, and hope he’s a 4th dish I don’t need to eat, but it’s nice to have it on the table if I’m still hungry.’

this might be my favorite group - Cooks has proved he can do it with anyone. Gallup’s RL WR3 designation shies people away. Landry is a safe but completely unexciting PPR pick. High weekly floor. Waddle is the upside rookie, and again peripheral talent on the team might be an issue.  This is the “fortune cookie” tier, and even though there’s 7 people in your party, they only gave you 5 cookies. :(  

Pittman is going higher than several players above on the list. I feel a breakout coming. I’ve been wrong before.  

otherwise, this is the “I ate one too many potstickers and need a Tums” tier. 

The challenge here is that most of the league is targeting many of these same players. And from mocking I can say petty confidently that there’s a good chance that if a WR run starts, you’ll miss entire tiers at a time. 

And what’s especially challenging is that at some point in our drafts we’re going to have to hold our noses and take a few of these guys over RB or TE that might arguably be better value. But if we don’t take them, we’re on to the next tier because they consistently go near their ADP. Most of the guys in this list won’t slide too much. 

That’s why I struggle with the idea that this year is so deep. Because while there are a LOT of WRs, in a start 3 + flex league, they can dry up quickly, and many of these groupings go within a few picks of each other.

The problem with all of this is that you're just going to want to draft again in an hour...

sorry couldn't resist.

#tipyorwaitresses

 

[rockaction]

The problem with all of this is that you're just going to want to draft again in an hour...

sorry couldn't resist.

#tipyorwaitresses

h8 crime reported and noted.

 

[Bald Bull]

The problem with all of this is that you're just going to want to draft again in an hour...

sorry couldn't resist.

#tipyorwaitresses

That's just the truth!

 

[rockaction]

That's just the truth!

Son, we live in a world that drafts and those drafts are guarded by men with knowledge. Who's gonna do it? You, Hot Sauce Guy? You, Bald Bull? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom. You weep for the late-round running back, and you curse the wide receiver. You have that luxury. You have that luxury of not knowing what I know. That waiting on WR, while tough, will probably save seasons. And their existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves seasons. Deep down, in places you don't talk about, you want saved seasons. You need me saving seasons. We use words like runs, scarcity, patience. We use these words as the backbone of a draft spent defending something. You use them as a thread starter. I have tons of time and maybe the inclination to explain to you the seasons I save and the method in which I save them. I also would appreciate a thank you, and that you went on your way.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I would appreciate a thank you, and that you went on your way.

Just answer the question! Did you order the Cooks, Higgins & Calloway? 

 

[rockaction]

Just answer the question! Did you order the Cooks, Higgins & Calloway? 

You're God darned right I ordered the Cooks.

(In the seventh round in a ten-team League after going RB-RB-RB). My receivers are Godwin, Claypool, Cooks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

You're God darned right I ordered the Cooks.

(In the seventh round in a ten-team League after going RB-RB-RB). My receivers are Godwin, Claypool, Cooks.

Your honor; I’d like to recommend that we immediately move the defendant to the fantasy playoffs, where he’ll face the 3-seed in the first round. 

Bailiff, please mirandize him. The defendant has rights. 
*a gavel bangs* 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Interestingly enough, I regularly ran circles around Waldman and Bloom. The material they put out is great . . . but I smacked them around something fierce in actual leagues.

Joe should use this in his marketing campaigns.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I'm in a full ppr league with 2rb/2wr and 2 flex so WR depth is huge for me too. 

I mocked this morning (out of the 11) and got Diggs/Aaron Jones/ Kittle/ Lockett/Lamar Jackson/ D. Harris/ Mostert/ Mooney/ Gage etc. I felt like I screwed up the JuJu pick because I don't have him much higher than some of the WRs going later and then I forced myself to backfill at RB later. The mock was only one flex so I liked my team ish but here goes my take on the WRs per ESPN live draft trends.

First of all, everyone is all over Aiyuk. He went at 5.01. His ADP is 59 but if he slips to you, he's been identified by a lot of analysts as the next big breakout guy. Wins at all levels of the field and has the tools to be elite. He belongs a tier ahead of the dudes on this list IMO.

64. Golladay- Injury risk, been a while since elite production, not a fan. Maybe if he drops another round I'm in.

65. Beckham- same as above but I feel like his prospects are better. 

67. JuJu- This is a reasonable price. Not much ceiling there but if you want a solid floor in this range, he's fine I guess

70. Michael Thomas- I'm hoping he keeps dropping. I'd like him better a round later as a bench stash.

71. Chase Claypool- I love him here. Huge upside, second year breakout, hoping those tendons in Ben's elbow are rejuvenated and can chuck it. Sky's the limit for him.

72. Courtland Sutton. Would take him a round later. Lots of stuff to worry about with him. top 20 upside and lots of downside IMO.

73. Tee Higgins- I love him here. I would personally put him and Claypool at the top of this list. I think Claypool's ceiling is higher but I think Tee's going to outperform this ADP by a lot. I think he's a WR2. 

74. Robby Anderson- I'm a little lower on him than most. I'll admit that this is partly Darnold but it's also Terrance Marshall and return of CMC plus being higher on DJ Moore by a fair spec than Anderson. I think he's OK here but would have a hard time pulling the trigger over Jeudy or Cooks.

80. Jeudy- I thin this is a fantastic value for him. Everyone loves his breakout potential.

81. Cooks- Fine, will outperform ADP, probably. 

82. Shenault. I get it, there's upside for him to be THE WR1 for Jacksonville. Seems like he's OK here. He's the ceiling pick in this offense so IMO he's the guy. Etienne is the gadget guy now, Shenault is getting a promotion.

83. Fuller. Talent was there but huge ?? for me. I drafted him last year and traded him halfway through. He was a WR1 for the first half but moving to a team with greater target competition, less talented QB playing behind a suspect OL, hasn't been typically able to stay healthy (why was he on steroids again?) and can't play Week 1. Gamblin' man pick here. Yikes.

90. Tyler Boyd. Ultimate floor pick. Will outproduce his ADP and be a startable flex almost all year long. 

91. Chark- I think this is throwing away a pick, even here. Always injured and his team: Wants to run the ball more, brought in a better deep threat, drafted a pass catching back and is starting a rookie QB who will likely not be able to support 4 relevant pass catchers. Would rather get Marvin Jones, Shenault or Etienne at their ADP.

94. Gallup. Giddyup (I stole that). Love him here. If Cooper misses time he's a mid tier WR2. They're moving Lamb out of the slot and moving all three of them around more. 

95. Landry. Boyd lite. 

96. DaVonta Smith- not sure what's up with the injury. Talent and situation (clear #1 WR) to be drafted up in the 5th round but between Hurts' faults as a passer and the injury risks, yikes. Read up on those injury reports.

99. Deebo Samuel. I'll admit I'm a little freaked out about the injuries. I think that Kittle and the likely ascension of Aiyuk puts even a healthy Deebo at risk of being significantly less relevant. 

100. Curtis Samuel. Let's see what's up with the groin. Everyone loved him before this. Could easily be a mid-tier WR3 but have to see.

102. Antonio Brown. Massive value here. I would pick him like 2 rounds earlier.  I think he's a super solid WR3.

103. Jalen Waddle. Not sold on Tua, I think the other pass catchers in this offense combined with Tua and the OL give me great pause. Obviously there's upside here but I think it's going to be tough to know who to start in this offense. 

107. Ruggs- Has the ceiling and lack of clear target competition. I'm not personally sold on the talent but some are and see him as a guy that can break out.

109. Marquise Brown. I don't love him here. I think Bateman is the guy (besides Andrews) that they're hoping to have be more involved in the passing game. I'm high on Bateman if he is actually healthy.

118. Beasley (who I think is a frequent poster in the vaccine thread), would easily be 3 rounds ahead of this based on last year's production- which it seems like he could very well be.

119. Corey Davis- #1 target- new team, new coaching staff, rookie QB and sharing targets with everyone's favorite binky Elijah Moore and the re-signed slot guy Crowder who was really pretty good last year. Kind of a ceiling pick. ADP seems like a value but probably not by a ton.

125. Marvin Jones Jr.- fine value here

126. Jalen Reagor- yuck

127. Mike Williams- #2 target for an ascending, great young QB. I think he's going to get a lot of RZ work and targets. I see a huge breakout for him. 

134. TY Hilton- Fine. He felt that Rivers couldn't get the ball down the field far enough to be utilized correctly last year. He's old but might have a few more games in him. If you believe Wentz can push the ball down the field better with a big improvement in his OL.

More later

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

109. Marquise Brown. I don't love him here. I think Bateman is the guy (besides Andrews) that they're hoping to have be more involved in the passing game. I'm high on Bateman if he is actually healthy.

Bateman is about to have surgery to repair a torn core muscle. I’m much higher on sleepy Brown as a result. 

Excellent write-up though. Agree with much of it. 

 

[wgoldsph]

haven’t yet seen him make it out of the 5th in my many mocks. 

I like him at his ADP, but mot sure what his upside is in that offense. Feels like maybe he is what he is at this point. Which is fair for his ADP, but not world-beater FF WR1 for your team. 

hesitant to trust this dude. Not only for the hip, but for his QB. I’m hoping I’m wrong because I’m a DJones SF shareholder. 

I love all 3 of these players at their ADP, but as I said previously in here, #s 2-6 is basically a tier, and you get to pick exactly 1 in the 6th round. Odds are you can’t have 2 items from this menu. 

imm call this tier “broccoli beef”. Because while the Kung pao looks good, not everyone in the family likes spicy. Little billy wants orange chicken, but mom says it has too much sugar. And dad’s favorite is the mushroom veggie dish, but he’s on an island. So everyone agrees on broccoli beef. 

This seems to be another tier/grouping on the menu. This is the “pot stickers” group. Again, some might want egg rolls, some want fried wonton, but everyone loves potstickers. Of this menu I like Boyd the best, as the other 3 aren’t very trustworthy. Smith is the upside play, but IIRC he’s missed some time with injury, and I’m not sure Hurts is a good enough QB to make Smith FF relevant. 

AB gets his own tier. He’s “wonton soup”. I’m ordering him whether the rest of the family wants any or not. He’s old for the NFL, but the connection with Brady is legit & he really came on at the end of the season. 

This the “vegetable dish” tier. Mom said we had to have a veggie dish, so here we are. We’re not excited about it & there’s a good chance it’s not great, but each has upside. Maybe the cook used a particularly good sauce?  

what’s Laviska in that offense? Will Gage really get enough of the targets left by Julio to be worthy of someone’s WR3? Is Zach Wilson going to produce a FF-caliber starter? Is a 3rd year Hardman breakout pending?  Of this menu I probably order the side of Hardman, and hope he’s a 4th dish I don’t need to eat, but it’s nice to have it on the table if I’m still hungry.’

this might be my favorite group - Cooks has proved he can do it with anyone. Gallup’s RL WR3 designation shies people away. Landry is a safe but completely unexciting PPR pick. High weekly floor. Waddle is the upside rookie, and again peripheral talent on the team might be an issue.  This is the “fortune cookie” tier, and even though there’s 7 people in your party, they only gave you 5 cookies. :(  

Pittman is going higher than several players above on the list. I feel a breakout coming. I’ve been wrong before.  

otherwise, this is the “I ate one too many potstickers and need a Tums” tier. 

The challenge here is that most of the league is targeting many of these same players. And from mocking I can say petty confidently that there’s a good chance that if a WR run starts, you’ll miss entire tiers at a time. 

And what’s especially challenging is that at some point in our drafts we’re going to have to hold our noses and take a few of these guys over RB or TE that might arguably be better value. But if we don’t take them, we’re on to the next tier because they consistently go near their ADP. Most of the guys in this list won’t slide too much. 

That’s why I struggle with the idea that this year is so deep. Because while there are a LOT of WRs, in a start 3 + flex league, they can dry up quickly, and many of these groupings go within a few picks of each other.

Welp, looks like I'm closing my subscription service as there will never be a better analogy.  Tip my hat to you sir.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Welp, looks like I'm closing my subscription service as there will never be a better analogy.  Tip my hat to you sir.

Haha - as I was writing it i just kept realizing that I like so many players in each tier, and it reminded me of the “3-Item combo” Chinese menus. “Pick one from each column”. 
 

 

[BobbyLayne]

64. Golladay- Injury risk, been a while since elite production, not a fan. Maybe if he drops another round I'm in.

65. Beckham- same as above but I feel like his prospects are better. 

67. JuJu- This is a reasonable price. Not much ceiling there but if you want a solid floor in this range, he's fine I guess

70. Michael Thomas- I'm hoping he keeps dropping. I'd like him better a round later as a bench stash.

71. Chase Claypool- I love him here. Huge upside, second year breakout, hoping those tendons in Ben's elbow are rejuvenated and can chuck it. Sky's the limit for him.

72. Courtland Sutton. Would take him a round later. Lots of stuff to worry about with him. top 20 upside and lots of downside IMO.

73. Tee Higgins- I love him here. I would personally put him and Claypool at the top of this list. I think Claypool's ceiling is higher but I think Tee's going to outperform this ADP by a lot. I think he's a WR2. 

74. Robby Anderson- I'm a little lower on him than most. I'll admit that this is partly Darnold but it's also Terrance Marshall and return of CMC plus being higher on DJ Moore by a fair spec than Anderson. I think he's OK here but would have a hard time pulling the trigger over Jeudy or Cooks.

80. Jeudy- I thin this is a fantastic value for him. Everyone loves his breakout potential.

Not really directed at the guy I’m quoting...

This kind of thinking slays me - if you love Claypool, Higgins, and Jeudy, why not just move them up 10-15 spots, ahead of the guys you “should draft at that spot.”

ADP and Rankings are trash 2-3 weeks into the season. Every year. Go get your guys, at whatever prIce it takes. A round early for a league winner is the best feeling. Shot your shot.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Not really directed at the guy I’m quoting...

This kind of thinking slays me - if you love Claypool, Higgins, and Jeudy, why not just move them up 10-15 spots, ahead of the guys you “should draft at that spot.”

ADP and Rankings are trash 2-3 weeks into the season. Every year. Go get your guys, at whatever prIce it takes. A round early for a league winner is the best feeling. Shot your shot.

I’m with this.  And it’s a great point for this topic, too. 

if I have a TE & RB in the first 5 round, believe I’ve got 2 RB & a WR, or 3 RB depending what value falls.

so 6 ~> I’m grabbing my personal favorite WR well ahead of ADP & will reach right past a couple tiers of scrubs to do it. Claypool is a great example, as are Cooks, Higgins, AB & Several others.

Cuz if I don’t, I’m gonna end up with 3 guys from these lists that I don’t want.
 

 

[joey]

Haha - as I was writing it i just kept realizing that I like so many players in each tier, and it reminded me of the “3-Item combo” Chinese menus. “Pick one from each column”. 
 

Now I’m freakin starving for Chinese food. Thanks, ya jerk  

 

[greenmountaingoat]

missed 134. Hardman. Been there, done that. Was thinking last year, "Hey the #2 guy on KC WR should be really a find!" Except for when I watched the games, Demarcus Robinson or Byron Pringle all seemed to be getting snaps and targets just about as much as my guy. I mean he could pop but he's a guy that's roughly a 50/50 shot to be back on waivers in a matter of a few weeks. 

143. DaVante Parker. Meh. Probably an OK floor for this ADP but you could probably roll off waivers in a 12 team league and pick up this kind or weekly projection. So like what's the point. I would rank him near the end of draft-able. I don't think there's as much ceiling given that I think he's the least talented of Waddle, Fuller and maybe tied with Gisecki.

146. Mooney. I keep hearing that he was open deep a ton last year but bad QB play that couldn't get him the ball. Fields throws an accurate deep ball. Heck yes, this is my dude. Would draft much higher. Personally think he the ceiling is really, really high. 

150. Elijah Moore. Love him, don't trust the situation yet but late 13th round, he's OK on the bench for a while. 

156. Michael Pittman. Breakout potential. Especially if Wentz is healthy, behind a good OL, pushing the ball downfield. If he can stay healthy...

158. Cobb- might end up being like the poor man's Boyd. Aaron loves his guys.

163. Agholor- IF Mac Jones is the QB, belongs up a round or three. Maybe. NE's offense is going to be run heavy and Cam can't read defenses or throw a football without seeing a guy open first. Even then it's a risky proposition. And there's two TEs that are going to get theirs. And Myers. And Bourne. Yikes.  But if it's Mac Jones, he could easily be a start-able WR3.

167. Myers- Kind of the same as Agolor. As a NE fan, I was rooting for him to become a thing. He's fighting for the #2 spot with Bourne in a 2TE offense. Initial camp reports were that he was well behind them but coming on strong as camp progressed. Would not draft unless the depth chart suffers a bunch (which as a fan would not be in favor! of those events).

168. Gage. Matt Ryan will or will not throw for 4400 yards. They can't all go to Ridley and Pitts. He's going to be a startable WR3, practically guaranteed. Should be a whole round sooner.

169. Bateman. Just had surgery on the groin, will miss several weeks. If he recovers this year, he's my bet to be the #2 pass catcher in this offense (behind Andrews) Not sure how to gage timing of how to stash this guy or if he'll even be able to be effective this year. Still kind of a binky for me.

185. Parris Campbell. Things we need to go right: Wentz to go bonkers. TY to regress and Pittman and N. Hines to be worse options. Seems very, very iffy. No idea why he would be above the next 10 guys.

190. Jamison Crowder. Seems like also kind of a guy that was a playable WR3 before getting buried on the depth chart. Still will get a number of targets as the slot guy but seemingly third on the depth chart in an iffy offense.

194. AJ Green. Actual potential to be the WR2 in a good offense. "only" 33 years old. Was very ineffective when heavily targeted last year. I think on ceiling alone he actually belongs a round earlier.

206. Sterling Shepard. Belongs a few rounds higher. Golladay might miss significant time and Shephard will be targeted much more than anyone else on the list.

213. Tre'Quan Smith. Somebody has to catch the ball in NO. He's hurt now but will be the presumed #1 for ~6 weeks. 

214 Kardarius Toney. Not draftable to me.

219. Rondale More. Not draftable for me.

233. Sammy Watkins- Might be the last man standing in Baltimore. Likely playable for week 1 so if you're feeling frisky about drafting guys you want to stash.

Other undrafted WR that belong on a draft board above Myers, Toney and Rondale more, at least:

Bryan Edwards- Potential #1/#2 in LV. 

Callaway- Definitely will outscore many on the list for at least a few weeks!

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terrace Marshall Jr.  are both worth fliers IMO,

And definitely whichever of the DET WRs seems atop the depth chart if any  No idea why they aren't even showing up on on ESPN lol.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Not really directed at the guy I’m quoting...

This kind of thinking slays me - if you love Claypool, Higgins, and Jeudy, why not just move them up 10-15 spots, ahead of the guys you “should draft at that spot.”

ADP and Rankings are trash 2-3 weeks into the season. Every year. Go get your guys, at whatever prIce it takes. A round early for a league winner is the best feeling. Shot your shot.

I totally agree. The OP was asking who we're targeting after round 5 so that was the best way for me to organize my thoughts.  

It's a little tough drafting near the turn though because tiers can vanish when you're waiting 20 picks.

 

[LOCO]

so wait on WR and load up on RB/TE

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Now I’m freakin starving for Chinese food. Thanks, ya jerk  

Had it for lunch today. So goooood.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terrace Marshall Jr.  are both worth fliers IMO,

And definitely whichever of the DET WRs seems atop the depth chart if any  No idea why they aren't even showing up on on ESPN lol.

I might talk myself into Van Jefferson in this tier, too. Kupp & Woods aren’tj without injury history. Coaches like him. He’s a back of the draft lottery ticket for me. 

 

[BoltBacker]

Showing your age, Ted Danson is from the good place now.

You guys are talking about the dude that got buried in "Creepshow", right?