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WR Martavis Bryant, WAS (2 Viewers)
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NFL-ons
Footballguy
A great feature to playing in dynasty is that managers have their own values to players. Because of this, when initiating trade talks, I usually go to the most recent ADP values. If MartyB is valued at pick 21 and the 1.04 is valued at pick 56, then the perceived value is significantly off.
Now does that mean the owner of MartyB values him as pick 21, no, so it never hurts to ask. You may find a guppy to take advantage of (see completed dynasty trade thread) but there is a growing attitude that 'bad' initial trade offers are not even worth responding to. So, if I truly wanted to begin negotiations to acquire the pick 21 asset, I would add a significant amount to the pick 56 asset.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I understood this completely, but I never saw the ADP column on the DFL link. That chart is pretty off IMO, because the 1.01 in the last two years of the DFL ADP chart ended up at 20 or 19 the last two years, and that spread is much steeper than I recall. I can't find the data I saved, and they are now behind a paywall, but I at least get your point. The data is still too rough for me to draw any correlations - small sample size on the mocks, no rookies in the mocks, questionable pick value chart - but at least I see where you get your conclusion from. I'd buy it more if the data were better, but alas that's the biggest challenge (and thrill) in assessing dynasty values.
I do agree Bryant is worth more than the 1.04 but it's not significantly more. AB is the target hog there, and will be for a long time, and Bryant carries risk with the Substance Abuse program.
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Zyphros
Footballguy
I'm in the same boat, I thought I had a realistic chance at him accepting 1.04 for Martavis. AB is the undisputed #1 on that team no matter how much Bryant improves, and with a healthy Bell back next year it's hard imagining Bryant catches north of 90 balls (probably even being generous there). He's devalued in ppr. Catch totals are 26 and 50 for both years which isn't exactly top15 numbers as some are so quickly to decalre him as. Even if he does get better, which is very likely, 90 balls and 1000yds is probably his limit as long as he's in Pittsburgh with Antonio. I understand he missed 5 games, but that whole team relied on Martavis more than they normally would with Ben out some games and Bell out most of the season. He's still the #3 option on that team no matter how you slice it.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
He is one misguided 4:20 away from missing a season and putting his career in jeopardy. I have him on my main dynasty roster, but as good as his potential may be, that is a factor that I would weigh if presented with a solid offer. I think he is worth less than his potential would otherwise dictate.
not a Bryant owner, view him as a Tier 3 WR, which places him just outside the top 12 ish. Not sure if he will get the targets every week, but he can single handily win a week.
carries significant upside and downside.
in terms of picks, no lower than the 1.02, maybe 1.03 depending on how the draft goes
carries significant upside and downside.
in terms of picks, no lower than the 1.02, maybe 1.03 depending on how the draft goes
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Dealt Dez for SuperMart and a 2017 devy pick (which carries a lot of trade value in my league, admittedly). Still, pretty risky move. I'm all in I guess.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
I feel like 1.2/1.3 is fair value personally.
He left us this season on a very high note. He was completely useless for the 2-3 weeks prior though. Had he not had that huge game (with AB out and no RBs), the 1.2 would look very appealing right now to just about everyone IMO.
I would love for you to be right and for MB to be the next Randy Moss, but I am just not convinced. For the foreseeable future, he is the clear WR2 on his team, and arguably the third option in the passing game when Bell comes back. Add in the very high risk that this guy - who has by no means proven that he isnt a complete knucklehead - hits the pipe "just one more time" and pulls a Justin Blackmon on us.
I love watching him with the ball in his hands, and he definitely flashes total stud potential. No argument there. I traded Calvin for MB+ before the season started, and I am psyched about that trade right now. But I am tempering expectations a bit more than others appear to be. He still carries substantial risk, probably no less than the 1.2/1.3 does.
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If he stays clean and if he learns how to concentrate to catch the easy balls (something he has had difficulty with the past two years), then he can be a top 10 WR in this offense. The problem is that those are two big IFs, especially the staying clean (imo) because his value drops significantly with a massive suspension. That said, I am cautiously optimistic that his 2016 season will be a very, very good one.
NFL-ons
Footballguy
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Addition is a terrible thing. Sad to hear this.
Poncho
Footballguy
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
You can't get addicted to weed.
Now, if he legitimately has depression, that is to be taken very seriously.
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
Is not this suspension for missed tests as opposed to positive a test
Mr. Brownstone
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
with the league showing more of a leniency towards marajuana wouldn't be surprised to see Bryant's suspension reduced.
Nobody thought Gordon would just be let back so easily after failing another test earlier this year. The NFL should seriously consider letting Bryant back earlier to be consistent.
Nobody thought Gordon would just be let back so easily after failing another test earlier this year. The NFL should seriously consider letting Bryant back earlier to be consistent.
Joe T
Footballguy
I was just reading through the FBG's staff mock draft from 3 days ago. Someone drafted Bryant in the 9th round. I guess people are betting on his suspension being reduced???
I don't get it.
Edit: Oh, it's a dynasty draft. I had to re-read the rules, but I get it now.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
For the record, and as an addiction psychiatrist, you CAN get addicted to weed. About 1% of people who smoke wind up with a severe use disorder. Smoking daily, wanting and trying to cut back and can't. There are withdrawal symptoms that lead to this including difficultly sleeping, poor appetite, nausea, and anxiety. Think the opposite of being high. The vast majority of people who smoke will not get addicted, but a small percentage will. And if you think about the number of total smokers, that small percentage actually will be a lot of people.
Back to Bryant. Where would you all be ranking him in dynasty leagues. Seems like he might be a fantastic lottery ticket to buy now.
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Stealthycat
Footballguy
when you piss away a multi-million dollar NFL career to smoke dope ,... addicted is exactly the word to use
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Double digits.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Look at it this way: Look where Gordon's value was one year ago and where it is now with nothing happening between then except getting reinstated. If/when Bryant gets reinstated next year, you're looking at a similar jump based on where his value was prior to this suspension.
Brandon Will
Footballguy
Do the steelers miss bryant? Where is his dynasty rank? I lost Allen for the year and the bryant owner in my league needs a WR. Can have him for Tyrell and Brate.
Go
Go
jedimindtricks
Footballguy
Definitely a risk I think is worth taking.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Sounds like he learned his lesson. I traded away my 1st in a dynasty league, but I'm hoping Bryant coming back is worth more to my 2017 championship defense than even a high end 2017 1st rounder.
Also him saying he didn't really train before... This dude is quite an elite athletic specimen to make it this far and play this well without really training his body like he could.
Also him saying he didn't really train before... This dude is quite an elite athletic specimen to make it this far and play this well without really training his body like he could.
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I know I won't. Offers will be weak until people see him back on the field and then it will be too late. He's a monster.
steelers1080
Footballguy
Definitely Ben, unless Antonio starts racking up concussions. Then I think he'd walk away with his budding business empire.
I really hope Bryant stays clean and can rejoin the team, but he doesn't sound like someone who has his stuff together. He moved from LA to Vegas to avoid potential problems. Hmmm. And he won't apologize to his team about lying, because they're all grown men. Umm, men can apologize when they **** up. I just hope he gives the Steelers 2 solid years. After that he'll probably take $$$ from another team. They might be able to resign him if other teams are still wary, but if he plays like he could the next 2 years, he'd command WR1 $$$.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
So to show everyone he has overcome his addiction he heads to a place where there are addictive behaviors and substances. Got it.pghrob said:
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