WRs/TEs Matchups to Exploit/Avoid (1 Viewer)

[laughinboy_2000]

Lets get to business folks. As usual, RED means it's a matchup to AVOID, and GREEN means it's a matchup to EXPLOIT

Tenn. @ Pittsburgh:

This game will have too much defense to start any WRs from either team. I expect a low scoring fist fight between these two teams.

AVOID: All Tenn & Pittsburgh WRs and TEs

Steelers 17

Titans 13

Denver @ Cincinnati:

Unlike the above game, this one will feature lots of fantasy production from the team WRs. Let’s take a look at some good matchups to Exploit.

Denver:

Eddie Royal: I firmly believe he’s the “new” #1 WR in Denver even with BMarsh still in town. Royal just fits this offense better by running short routes and having great hands. He’s a solid start this weekend.

Brandon Marshall: This guy has had ZERO time on the field and rightfully so. I’d be worried about how committed this guy will be in Denver in 2009.

Exploit: Eddie Royal

Avoid: Brandon Marshall

Cincinnati:

Chris Henry/Ochocinco/Coles:

I’m believing the hype this year with Henry. He’s been terrific in preseason, and Palmer has earned the trust of Palmer. I see a long TD pass this weekend in Denver. #85 is back and looks to be a bit more focused this year. No brainer here. Start him if you got him. He could reach the century mark against a bad Denver secondary. If he scores, expect some kind of TD celebration that will be featured on ESPN. Coles has been non-existent so far in the Bengals passing game. He needs to wake up.

Exploit: Chris Henry

Avoid: Laverneous Coles

Cincinnati: 24

Denver: 17

Kansas City @ Baltimore:

I can’t imagine Kansas City ‘O hanging with Ray Lewis and the Raven D. QB and coaching issues have me wanting to avoid any and all Chief offensive players this weekend.

KC: Bowe/Bradley/Engram: Bowe is the option for the Chiefs D, but I would avoid this matchup this weekend on the road against a tough D. This goes for the rest of the KC WRs as well.

Avoid: Dwayne Bowe



Baltimore: Derrick Mason/Heap: Mason has a great matchup this weekend, especially in PPR leagues. Look for Mason to rack up 6-8 catches for 70 yards and a possible score. Heap is a shell of his former self, but this is the Chiefs we are talking about. He’s been healthy this preseason and may be somewhat productive this week. On paper this looks like a great “spot” start.

Exploit: Derrick Mason/Todd Heap

Ravens: 24

Chiefs: 10

Detroit @ New Orleans:

Chances are if you drafted a Lion or Saint, you are salivating over these matchups. Let’s take a look.

Detroit: Megatron: No brainer; Would not recommend any other Lion WRs or TEs though.

New Orleans:

Colston/Lance Moore/Shockey: Colston is healthy and should be studly this weekend. I have a feeling Moore and Brees will be connecting a few times this weekend. I would not be surprised if he gets more targets than Colston. Like Colston, Shockey is healthy and producing. Look for Shock to be open in the middle of the field quite a bit

Exploit: Lance Moore, WR NO

Game will be a bit closer than most think IMO…

New Orleans: 34

Detroit: 24

Miami @ Atlanta:

This should be one of the better games of the weekend IMO…

Miami: Ginn/Bess/Camarillo: Between these three, I like Bess and Camarillo. One thing I want to see is if Camarillo is healthy. If he’s not, look for Bess to make the best of his opportunities. Like the matchup here though against what I think will be a weak Birds secondary.



Atlanta: White/Jenkins/Gonzo: Look for White and Gonzo to be heavily involved in the passing game. I don’t see Burner Turner having too much success running the ball, but I do see QB Matt Ryan having success through the air. Jenkins could get open for a TD if the Fins D focuses on stopping Turner, White, and Gonzo



Falcons: 24

Fins: 21

NYJ @ Houston:

Houston is a team I love this year and should be playoff bound IF the team can stay healthy. The Jets though should make things interesting in week one.

NYJ: Cotchery/Stuckey/Clowney/Keller: Cotchery now assumes the #1 WR for the Jets and has a decent matchup in week one. I think the Jets will be in catch up mode which will provide some opportunities for Cotch in the passing game. Stuckey and Clowney are unproven and need to remain on the waiver wire. TE Dustin Keller presents some nice value this weekend as well.

Exploit: Jerricho Cotchery

Houston: Andre Johnson/Kevin Walters/Owen Daniels: Great matchup all around here. I think Shaub starts and is solid. Look for Andre and Daniels to do most of the damage here. Walters is injured which means more looks for Andre and Daniels. Check the injury stats of Walters before plugging him in. Even if he plays, give him a week to see what he looks like.



Exploit: Owen Daniels, TE Houston

Houston: 27

NYJ: 20

Jacksonville @ Indy:

I would like the Jags a little more in this game, but MJDs’ injury scare me a bit. I see Indy putting up some points at home.

Jax: Holt/Williamson/Walker: Garrard will do a good job spreading the ball around. Good matchup I feel, but choosing which WR will have the better game is giving me a headache.

Indy: Wayne/Gonzo/Garcon/Clark/: Wayne is a notorious Jags killer. Check out his stats in the past. Just plain silly. Gonzo should be another solid play this week, but I see Clark actually being the Colts #2 WR this year. I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Garcon in preseason, but it remains to be seen how many targets he’ll see in this offense.



Indy: 31

Jags: 20

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Favre should have some success through the air in the Dog Pound, but the Browns won’t be so lucky.

Minnesota: Berrian/Rice/Harvin/Shiancoe: Like this group against a terrible Browns secondary. Good matchup here for both Rice and Harvin I believe. Why you ask? The injury to Berrian. Shiancoe better get ready this weekend to, because Brett loves throwing to his TEs.

Exploit: Sidney Rice/Percy Harvin

Avoid: Bernard Berrian



Cleveland: Edwards/Furrey/Cribbs/Royal: No, No, No, and lets see…. No! Bad matchup. Stay far away.

Avoid: Braylon Edwards

Minnesota: 21

Cleveland: 10

Philadelphia @Carolina:

Carolina fan here, and I’m here to tell you… The Panthers are going to stink this year! Meh… Maybe I’m wrong but I doubt it…

Philadelphia: Jackson/Curtis/Avent/Celek: Huge DeShaun Jackson fan in this game. The Panthers defense just looks terrible so far. Look for DJax to rack up some yardage and find pay dirt. Avent seems to be more involved than Curtis, so that may be worth watching as the season goes on. Celek is hurt but I like him as a fantasy TE when he’s on the field.

Exploit: DeShaun Jackson, WR Philly

Carolina: Smith/Moose/Jarrett: Not a lot to see here. Smith is the one guy you can count on to be productive. Enough analysis here.



Philly: 27

Panthers: 21

Dallas @ Tampa Bay:

Romo against a decent Bucs secondary, and Leftwich against what I think will be an improved Cowboy secondary.

Dallas: Williams/Crayton/Witten: Keep an eye on Roy Williams’ injury. It could open an opportunity for Crayton to be somewhat productive. Witten of course though is the key guy in the Dallas passing game.

Avoid: Roy Williams

Tampa Bay: Bryant/Clayton/Stovall/Winslow: Should be interesting to see how the Bucs passing game looks against the Cowboys. Rolling the dice on any of these WRs is risky, but you have the think Winslow will be involved somehow.

‘Boys: 17

Bucs: 14

Arizona @ San Fran:

Better game IMO than most people think.

Arizona: Boldin/Fitz/Breaston: You would have to think the Cards are going to throw the ball with the weapons that have here. Boldin was the better play last year against the 49er’s but Fitz is one of the best in the Biz. Really like Breaston too, since Boldin is a bit dinged up.

San Fran: Morgan/Bruce/Battle/Davis: The Niners are going to have to throw the ball to win this game IMO. I know this sounds crazy, but my gut tells me Vernon Davis will be productive against the Cards. Look for Niners to try and exploit the matchups he will have against the Arizona linebackers.

Exploit: Vernon Davis, TE San Fran

Arizona: 24

SF: 17

St. Louis @ Seattle:

I see a shoot out here. Look for the St. Louis to get the run game going and the Seattle passing attach to be in true form.

St. Louis: Avery/Robinson/Burton: Rams WR Donnie Avery has pronounced himself ready, so he’s worth a look here. Laurent Robinson looks to the Rams #2 WR this year and may be decent. I need to see more of him though to recommend him as an Exploit. I have not been impressed with Burton so far.



Exploit: Donnie Avery, WR STL

Seattle: Houshmandzadeh/Burlson/Butler/Carlson: Like this group, particularly Carlson. Housh will be his usual possession receiver self, but look for Carlson to get the red zone looks. I like Butler this year, but need to see more of him to recommend him as an Exploit. In other words, Housh and Carlson are the players you want to take advantage of in week one.

‘Hawks: 27

Rams: 20

Washington @ New York:

For the second straight year, the Skins will open up against the G-men.

Washington: Moss/Kelly/Randle El/Cooley: The images of how the Skins looked in week one last week against the Gints are still firmly in my head. I just don’t see Campbell and this offense having much success against the Gints defense.

NYG: Smith/Hixon/Nicks/Boss: The Gints run too much for me to recommend an Exploit here. Plus, I think the Skins D will do a good enough job against Peyton’s younger brother.

Avoid: Santana Moss, WR Wash.

Giants: 24

Skins: 10

Chicago @ Green Bay:

Awesome to have this kind of rivalry game in week one.

Chicago: Hester/Bennett/Olsen: Not sure I like the matchups here. Green Bay is usually solid against the pass. People expecting big things from this group will be disappointed IMO. The Bears will look to Forte to carry the offense in this game.

Green Bay: Jennings/Driver/Jones/Finley: Like this group a lot this year. Possibly the best tandom of WRs in the league. Look for all of these guys to do some damage. If you’re looking for a sleeper at TE in week one, look no further than GB TE Jermichael Finley.

Avoid: Greg Olsen, TE Chi.

Buffalo @ New England:

Buffalo: Evans/Owens/Reed/Shouman: Bills WR Lee Evans is a notorious slow starter, so this I would think is a bad matchup, especially on the road. TO will make his debut, and the Bills will need to throw to somebody to keep up with the Pats. Reed and Shoumand will be non-factors.

New England: Moss/Welker/Galloway/Baker: Watch the injury report for Welker. If he can’t go, I think Galloway will be more involved which could mean 60-70 yards and a score. Moss and Brady should have no problems hooking up. Baker could see some red zone targets when the Pats move the ball.

Avoid: Wes Welker, WR Pats





Pats: 34

Bills: 20

San Diego @ Oakland:

San Diego: Jackson/Chambers/Gates: I think Gates will return in 2009 as the top TE in fantasy land. I can’t think of a better game for him to bust loose. VJax unfortunately will draw the Raiders best cover man, but he hurting with an injury. I see Rivers finding his groove and able to have success through the air.

Oakland: Heyward-Bey/Murphy/Miller: Only option in the passing game to me will be Zach Miller. Stay away from the Raiders passing attack. Look for the Bolts to put this game away… early…

Bolts: 30

Raiders:17

Hope you peeps enjoy and thanks for reading. Now, let's discuss.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

exploit both Mason and Royal...great, but which one if you had to choose?

 

[thehornet]

thanks again for doing this. Props to both you and MOP.

 

[Ripleys]

Nice work, but I have a hard time believing the Giants will score 24 points on the Skins D. The Skins strength is shutting down the run, and that's about the only thing the Giants can do well. I don't believe a Toomerless and Burressless WR core will be good enough to burn the skins. NYG could of course still win, but I see this as a low scoring ugly game personally...

 

[bucsbaby]

If Welker plays (probable, from what I've read), not sure how you can sit him imo.

 

[theJCdude]

Good job well done...

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Nice work, but I have a hard time believing the Giants will score 24 points on the Skins D. The Skins strength is shutting down the run, and that's about the only thing the Giants can do well. I don't believe a Toomerless and Burressless WR core will be good enough to burn the skins. NYG could of course still win, but I see this as a low scoring ugly game personally...

The Skins strength was shutting down the run last year too, but that did not stop Brandon Jacobs from racking up a buck 20 on them last year. My gut also says there will also be a defensive TD. JMO...

 

[sspunisher]

I had Sidney Rice on my team but eventually dropped him. His role is very limited in my opinion as Shiancoe seems to be Favre's go to guy, not really good news for Rice since he's a possession receiver type. Plus knowing Childress, I think he'll try to push Harvin in the game as much as possible and Rice will be the one losing reps/touches.

I like the player but for some reason see a cap on his ceiling. You labelled him as exploit but I'd personally be wary starting him as I see him as the boom or bust type at this point in his career. His hops in the redzone are in my opinion his greatest asset but then there's the whole Adrian Peterson thing over there in Minny. Great write up!

 

[Ripleys]

Skins also didn't have Hanesworth, Orakpo, and a healthy Carter and Daniels last year. This D is MUCH improved.

 

[PlebsforPresident]

I can see the conventional thinking about Bowe being someone to avoid this week, but I wouldn't bench him if you drafted him. The Chiefs will probably get beaten handedly by the Ravens, and the Ravens defense will probably over match the Chiefs offense. But often in these situations the team being dominated is forced to pass for much of the game. Bowe could at least get the opportunity for some decent garbage time yardage, and maybe even a garbage touchdown. I would be surprised if many owners, who likely drafted Bowe in the first four rounds, would be willing to sit him for, say, the WR they drafted in the 8th round. I have Bowe and will be starting him over K. Walter, L. Coles, and S. Breaston. Lastly, if you have Bowe on your roster you are probably a big believer in the possibility of him making a real impact this year, and sitting him week 1 is pretty much not an option.

Welker is listed as probable. I would be surprised if many owners who drafted him have better options. I will be starting him as well, and I am at this point not too worried about the injury. It may just be injury report antics by Belicheck. I wouldn't have expected Welker to play week 4 preseason anyway so this indicates nothing to me.

Just based on my situation I would guess that these two players remain 'start 'em if you got 'em' guys this week.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I had Sidney Rice on my team but eventually dropped him. His role is very limited in my opinion as Shiancoe seems to be Favre's go to guy, not really good news for Rice since he's a possession receiver type. Plus knowing Childress, I think he'll try to push Harvin in the game as much as possible and Rice will be the one losing reps/touches.I like the player but for some reason see a cap on his ceiling. You labelled him as exploit but I'd personally be wary starting him as I see him as the boom or bust type at this point in his career. His hops in the redzone are in my opinion his greatest asset but then there's the whole Adrian Peterson thing over there in Minny. Great write up!

I'm basing this strictly on Matchups, not on whether someone should be started. I like the situation Rice is in right now simply b/c Berrian is hurt. Rice should be the go to WR along with Harvin. And the fact that they are playing Cleveland I think makes him even more intriguing. Not seeing anything huge by any means, but may somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 receptions, 60 yards, and a possible score?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I can see the conventional thinking about Bowe being someone to avoid this week, but I wouldn't bench him if you drafted him. The Chiefs will probably get beaten handedly by the Ravens, and the Ravens defense will probably over match the Chiefs offense. But often in these situations the team being dominated is forced to pass for much of the game. Bowe could at least get the opportunity for some decent garbage time yardage, and maybe even a garbage touchdown. I would be surprised if many owners, who likely drafted Bowe in the first four rounds, would be willing to sit him for, say, the WR they drafted in the 8th round. I have Bowe and will be starting him over K. Walter, L. Coles, and S. Breaston. Lastly, if you have Bowe on your roster you are probably a big believer in the possibility of him making a real impact this year, and sitting him week 1 is pretty much not an option.Welker is listed as probable. I would be surprised if many owners who drafted him have better options. I will be starting him as well, and I am at this point not too worried about the injury. It may just be injury report antics by Belicheck. I wouldn't have expected Welker to play week 4 preseason anyway so this indicates nothing to me.Just based on my situation I would guess that these two players remain 'start 'em if you got 'em' guys this week.

The only thing that worries me with Welker this week is the fact that nobody knows what his injury is, and that fact that he has not practiced much if at all so far this season. One would think he needs to shake some of the rust off. Just my reasoning and I could be completely wrong. But my gut tells me he may disappoint.

 

[PlebsforPresident]

I had Sidney Rice on my team but eventually dropped him. His role is very limited in my opinion as Shiancoe seems to be Favre's go to guy, not really good news for Rice since he's a possession receiver type. Plus knowing Childress, I think he'll try to push Harvin in the game as much as possible and Rice will be the one losing reps/touches.I like the player but for some reason see a cap on his ceiling. You labelled him as exploit but I'd personally be wary starting him as I see him as the boom or bust type at this point in his career. His hops in the redzone are in my opinion his greatest asset but then there's the whole Adrian Peterson thing over there in Minny. Great write up!

I'm basing this strictly on Matchups, not on whether someone should be started. I like the situation Rice is in right now simply b/c Berrian is hurt. Rice should be the go to WR along with Harvin. And the fact that they are playing Cleveland I think makes him even more intriguing. Not seeing anything huge by any means, but may somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 receptions, 60 yards, and a possible score?

Isn't the entire premise of an 'avoid/exploit' thread whether or not to start a player? Avoid implies do not start, exploit implies start. I would avoid starting Sidney Rice this week.

 

[PlebsforPresident]

I can see the conventional thinking about Bowe being someone to avoid this week, but I wouldn't bench him if you drafted him. The Chiefs will probably get beaten handedly by the Ravens, and the Ravens defense will probably over match the Chiefs offense. But often in these situations the team being dominated is forced to pass for much of the game. Bowe could at least get the opportunity for some decent garbage time yardage, and maybe even a garbage touchdown. I would be surprised if many owners, who likely drafted Bowe in the first four rounds, would be willing to sit him for, say, the WR they drafted in the 8th round. I have Bowe and will be starting him over K. Walter, L. Coles, and S. Breaston. Lastly, if you have Bowe on your roster you are probably a big believer in the possibility of him making a real impact this year, and sitting him week 1 is pretty much not an option.Welker is listed as probable. I would be surprised if many owners who drafted him have better options. I will be starting him as well, and I am at this point not too worried about the injury. It may just be injury report antics by Belicheck. I wouldn't have expected Welker to play week 4 preseason anyway so this indicates nothing to me.Just based on my situation I would guess that these two players remain 'start 'em if you got 'em' guys this week.

The only thing that worries me with Welker this week is the fact that nobody knows what his injury is, and that fact that he has not practiced much if at all so far this season. One would think he needs to shake some of the rust off. Just my reasoning and I could be completely wrong. But my gut tells me he may disappoint.

I am more concerned than I was when I drafted him (aug 30). But still, those who have him probably got him, at the very latest, as their 4th round picks. As long as he as listed as probable, I don't see any other option this week than to start him (as a Welker owner).

 

[njherdfan]

I would say a HUGE exploit should be Kevin Walter, when you factor how good Revis is, and how pathetic Lito Sheppard has looked so far in the preseason. I tend to disagree a little about Santana, only because I expect the Skins to be losing fairly early and they'll need to take to the air. Also, questions about Vjax against oakland. Last year, he had a monster game, but I rewatched and on his TDs he wasn't matched up against Nnamdi. Does oakland tend to rotate who Nnamdi guards, or was that just good use of motion/formation on SDs part?

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, having sustained a chip fracture and cartilage damage on the first play of a preseason loss to the Saints, insisted the season opener against the San Diego Chargers on Sept. 14 was not in jeopardy.

Some reports suggested Asomugha was likely to miss the opener.

"In the normal world it would be six weeks in a cast," Asomugha said. "We're football players, we play hurt all the time."

It remains to be seen if Asomugha's play will be affected by the injury. A big part of his game in the Raiders' pressing, man-to-man coverage is grabbing and pushing receivers at the line of scrimmage.

It could also make tackling more difficult.

Asomugha expects to play with his wrist in a heavily wrapped soft cast, but could use less protection if the pain lessens over the next two weeks.

"At that point it might be fine, based on the rehab, and I won't have to wear that much," Asomugha said.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Must starts 16 times: Moss, Fitz, AJ, CJ, Wayne, Jennings, Smith, Colston, TJHoush, Welker, AQ, TO, White, Ocho, VJax, Braylon, Santonio, SMoss

Must start 16 times: Whitten, Clark, Gonzo, Gates, Cooley, Olsen, Daniels, Winslow, Shockey, Fasano, Davis, Scheffler, Shianco, Boss

What has changed in Pittsburgh's secondary? I wouldn't be traumatized if I had to start a Tenn WR or TE...(although I might be traumatized if they were on my roster).

What's wrong with Scheffler?

Its a little early to be picking sides on the Chris Henry versus Coles debate.

If you've rostered Dwayne Bowe, you start Dwayne Bowe.

Avoid the Jets passing game for now.

If you've rostered Braylon Edwards, you start Braylon Edwards.

Santana Moss will surprise this year, imo...

Avoid: Greg Olsen, TE Chi. -> FAIL

We need some clarification on Wes Welker before deciding....if he's going to play, he's a must start.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Forgot to say...kudos for doing this.

 

[thatguy]

I wouldn't necessarily classify Denver's secondary as "bad". Champ and Goodman are a very good tandem as starting CB's - arguably one of the top tandems in the league. Jack Williams is an adequate nickel back and Alphonso Smith as the dime back could be the x factor if he makes strides this season... At SS, Dawkins is getting up there but can still flat out play and is still very imposing to WR's going over the middle. Renaldo Hill should be more than adequate at FS.

In years past, Denver's secondary has been made to look bad by an abysmal pass rush, and that could very likely be the case again this season. But understand, if teams post gaudy passing numbers against this unit, it is more than likely a product of a poor pass rush rather than an indictment of the skills and ability of the secondary.

All that said, I am encouraged enough by what I've seen in the preseason to believe Denver will get more pressure on the QB this season, and as such, the secondary should reap the benefits.

ETA: While I disagree with you on this one small point, I do appreciate the effort. Great work overall.

 

[Houston turmOiler]

I would say a HUGE exploit should be Kevin Walter, when you factor how good Revis is, and how pathetic Lito Sheppard has looked so far in the preseason. I tend to disagree a little about Santana, only because I expect the Skins to be losing fairly early and they'll need to take to the air. Also, questions about Vjax against oakland. Last year, he had a monster game, but I rewatched and on his TDs he wasn't matched up against Nnamdi. Does oakland tend to rotate who Nnamdi guards, or was that just good use of motion/formation on SDs part?

Walter has a bad hammy and may not go. If he does I'd expect him to rotate out some with Andre Davis, who may be a decent boom-or-bust play if Walter is out. It's good logic but I'd tend to shy away from Walter given the injury. I would expect the Jets to use Revis on AJ...About Nnamdi--last season when the Texans played Oakland he stayed exclusively at RCB. He didn't follow AJ to the other side. I don't know if that's changed but I think he has a broken hand or something, so he's probably less than 100 percent...BTW, thanks in advance for creating these threads all season laughinboy....

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think Hines Ward is a must start this week. He and Ben have been clicking all preseason, and Finnegan (who usually lines up on the offense's right side) will have Santonio locked down. Willie Parker hasn't been healthy all preseason and the O line is not going to dominate the trenches. I'm thinking Ward is a great bet to go 8-110 & at least one score.

 

[MCguidance]

Must starts 16 times: Moss, Fitz, AJ, CJ, Wayne, Jennings, Smith, Colston, TJHoush, Welker, AQ, TO, White, Ocho, VJax, Braylon, Santonio, SMoss

Must start 16 times: Whitten, Clark, Gonzo, Gates, Cooley, Olsen, Daniels, Winslow, Shockey, Fasano, Davis, Scheffler, Shianco, Boss

What has changed in Pittsburgh's secondary? I wouldn't be traumatized if I had to start a Tenn WR or TE...(although I might be traumatized if they were on my roster).

What's wrong with Scheffler?

Its a little early to be picking sides on the Chris Henry versus Coles debate.

If you've rostered Dwayne Bowe, you start Dwayne Bowe.

Avoid the Jets passing game for now.

If you've rostered Braylon Edwards, you start Braylon Edwards.

Santana Moss will surprise this year, imo...

Avoid: Greg Olsen, TE Chi. -> FAIL

We need some clarification on Wes Welker before deciding....if he's going to play, he's a must start.

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but the bolded guys are not "must starts" IMO. Their not quite at that stud level yet. Might say the same about VJax and Holmes, too, but not as strongly. Definitely agree about Bowe and Edwards.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but the bolded guys are not "must starts" IMO. Their not quite at that stud level yet. Might say the same about VJax and Holmes, too, but not as strongly. Definitely agree about Bowe and Edwards.

Yeah; I know....but think 16 team must start TE leagues....

 

[laughinboy_2000]

A lot of these "Exploit/Avoids" will of course be affected by the type of league you're in. Example, I'm in a 10-team PPR league where you can start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 3 Flex (RB,WR, or TE) One of thes teams has Dwayne Bowe, but no playing him this week b/c of his match up. He's starting another WR over Bowe. If you must start three WRs and you're not deep at WR, you of course have no option but to start Bowe.

Speaking of Bowe, I like him this year. I really do, but the fact that the QB situation is up in the air and the fact that the OCoordinator was JUST fired leaves me thinking the Chiefs are going to be a mess for the first week or so. Especially against a defensive machine like the Ravens.

 

[the spanker]

A lot of these "Exploit/Avoids" will of course be affected by the type of league you're in. Example, I'm in a 10-team PPR league where you can start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 3 Flex (RB,WR, or TE) One of thes teams has Dwayne Bowe, but no playing him this week b/c of his match up. He's starting another WR over Bowe. If you must start three WRs and you're not deep at WR, you of course have no option but to start Bowe.Speaking of Bowe, I like him this year. I really do, but the fact that the QB situation is up in the air and the fact that the OCoordinator was JUST fired leaves me thinking the Chiefs are going to be a mess for the first week or so. Especially against a defensive machine like the Ravens.

There is no way I EVER sit Bowe I don't care if it's against the 70's Steeler squad. If it's down to the reserve waterboy playing QB. If Jessica Simpson showed up with a Bowe jersey on. If...well you get my point.

 

[Johnny Ice]

A lot of these "Exploit/Avoids" will of course be affected by the type of league you're in. Example, I'm in a 10-team PPR league where you can start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, and 3 Flex (RB,WR, or TE) One of thes teams has Dwayne Bowe, but no playing him this week b/c of his match up. He's starting another WR over Bowe. If you must start three WRs and you're not deep at WR, you of course have no option but to start Bowe.Speaking of Bowe, I like him this year. I really do, but the fact that the QB situation is up in the air and the fact that the OCoordinator was JUST fired leaves me thinking the Chiefs are going to be a mess for the first week or so. Especially against a defensive machine like the Ravens.

There is no way I EVER sit Bowe I don't care if it's against the 70's Steeler squad. If it's down to the reserve waterboy playing QB. If Jessica Simpson showed up with a Bowe jersey on. If...well you get my point.

Normally I will always start Bowe myself, but this week I'm going with Desean Jackson as my #2 to pair with Jennings. I would like to see how the KC offense flows first especially vs. a tough D like Baltimore.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I cannot imagine anyone who drafted Olsen sitting him week 1.

 

[baconisgood]

Tenn. @ Pittsburgh:This game will have too much defense to start any WRs from either team. I expect a low scoring fist fight between these two teams.AVOID: All Tenn & Pittsburgh WRs and TEs

I disagree- Hines ward (someone else pointed this out already) should be a very solid #3 WR start this week. In a grinding game the possession receiver should see lots of quick checkdowns to beat TENs rush and if they get in the RZ Ward is the target- especially with TENs run defense stiffining up near the goal line. Average week should be 60 yards and ~ 1/2 TD (maybe a bit less). Santonio is a sit but Ward is a play.

Cleveland: Edwards/Furrey/Cribbs/Royal: No, No, No, and lets see…. No! Bad matchup. Stay far away.Avoid: Braylon Edwards

Also disagree. Minnesota has a much better run defense than a pass D- Browns will be behind and gunning. Braylon could get 10 targets and 80+ yards with a good chance at a TD. Last year Minny was #1 in rushing yards allowed but middle of the pack in passing yards allowed.

 

[relic]

I stopped reading when you picked Moore to get more targets than Colston. Moore is the most overvalued player in the league this year.

 

[MCguidance]

I stopped reading when you picked Moore to get more targets than Colston. Moore is the most overvalued player in the league this year.

These weekly threads are a solid contribution to the pool; I wish you would post the reasons why you think Moore is so overrated this year, as I would likely benefit from this (not even being a jerk, but it's probably worthwhile since I always have a lot to learn). Negativity is lame, knowledge is what we need here, brother.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Disagree with benching PIT/TEN WR & TE. I think it's likely both teams will have more success throwing than running. Look at last year's meeting:

Hines 7-109-1

Holmes 5-93-1

Miller 8-69

Gage 5-104-1

McCareins 6-55

 

[MNTom]

I stopped reading when you picked Moore to get more targets than Colston. Moore is the most overvalued player in the league this year.

A WR who had nearly a 1000 yards and 10 td's the year before and is going in the 6-8 round range is overalued?

 

[PatytonsGhost]

I stopped reading when you picked Moore to get more targets than Colston. Moore is the most overvalued player in the league this year.

A WR who had nearly a 1000 yards and 10 td's the year before and is going in the 6-8 round range is overalued?

Colston coming off of injury too, Moore = major value

 

[H8fulHuck]

Nice write-up! Thank you.

 

[sparkky]

in the Bears/Packers game isn't this the first game that counts with GB going to the 3-4?

anyone think that may effect their pass coverage?

I think it will, myself. I'm going with Olsen in one league and most likely Hester in another.

and add my thanks for the season of these threads.

 

[shredhead]

Denver @ Cincinnati:

Unlike the above game, this one will feature lots of fantasy production from the team WRs. Let’s take a look at some good matchups to Exploit.

Denver:

Eddie Royal: I firmly believe he’s the “new” #1 WR in Denver even with BMarsh still in town. Royal just fits this offense better by running short routes and having great hands. He’s a solid start this weekend.

Brandon Marshall: This guy has had ZERO time on the field and rightfully so. I’d be worried about how committed this guy will be in Denver in 2009.

Exploit: Eddie Royal

Avoid: Brandon Marshall

Cincinnati:

Chris Henry/Ochocinco/Coles:

I’m believing the hype this year with Henry. He’s been terrific in preseason, and Palmer has earned the trust of Palmer. I see a long TD pass this weekend in Denver. #85 is back and looks to be a bit more focused this year. No brainer here. Start him if you got him. He could reach the century mark against a bad Denver secondary. If he scores, expect some kind of TD celebration that will be featured on ESPN. Coles has been non-existent so far in the Bengals passing game. He needs to wake up.

Exploit: Chris Henry

Avoid: Laverneous Coles

Cincinnati: 24

Denver: 17

I think you are underestimating the Denver secondary. Champ Bailey will likely be covering Chad (Irefuse to call him ochocinco) Johnson all day, and I see a decent but not great day for Chad. The reason for the poor defensive play by the Broncos last year was the front 7, not the secondary. The secondary was the strength of the poor defense. I expect the Denver D to be improved this season. They won't be an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination, but if the front 7 can put some pressure on opposing QB's and not give them all day to throw, I think the secondary will benefit and Yards and TD's against will improve.

All that being said, I am considering starting Chris Henry over Anthony Gonzalez, because Champ won't be covering Henry. I just think you may want to temper your expectations a bit. The Denver secondary isn't as bad as you think.

Denver 23

Cincy 20 Book it! It's my pick in the survivor pool.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Denver @ Cincinnati:

Unlike the above game, this one will feature lots of fantasy production from the team WRs. Let’s take a look at some good matchups to Exploit.

Denver:

Eddie Royal: I firmly believe he’s the “new” #1 WR in Denver even with BMarsh still in town. Royal just fits this offense better by running short routes and having great hands. He’s a solid start this weekend.

Brandon Marshall: This guy has had ZERO time on the field and rightfully so. I’d be worried about how committed this guy will be in Denver in 2009.

Exploit: Eddie Royal

Avoid: Brandon Marshall

Cincinnati:

Chris Henry/Ochocinco/Coles:

I’m believing the hype this year with Henry. He’s been terrific in preseason, and Palmer has earned the trust of Palmer. I see a long TD pass this weekend in Denver. #85 is back and looks to be a bit more focused this year. No brainer here. Start him if you got him. He could reach the century mark against a bad Denver secondary. If he scores, expect some kind of TD celebration that will be featured on ESPN. Coles has been non-existent so far in the Bengals passing game. He needs to wake up.

Exploit: Chris Henry

Avoid: Laverneous Coles

Cincinnati: 24

Denver: 17

I think you are underestimating the Denver secondary. Champ Bailey will likely be covering Chad (Irefuse to call him ochocinco) Johnson all day, and I see a decent but not great day for Chad. The reason for the poor defensive play by the Broncos last year was the front 7, not the secondary. The secondary was the strength of the poor defense. I expect the Denver D to be improved this season. They won't be an elite defense by any stretch of the imagination, but if the front 7 can put some pressure on opposing QB's and not give them all day to throw, I think the secondary will benefit and Yards and TD's against will improve.

All that being said, I am considering starting Chris Henry over Anthony Gonzalez, because Champ won't be covering Henry. I just think you may want to temper your expectations a bit. The Denver secondary isn't as bad as you think.

Denver 23

Cincy 20 Book it! It's my pick in the survivor pool.

So... You're not the least bit worried about a QB named Tom Brandstater? Please enlighten us on how the Broncos plan on going to Cinci and winning with this guy. This may be a bold prediction on my part, but the Bengals could be a playoff team if and only if Carson Palmer stays healthy. Book it!

 

[The Jerk]

#85 is back and looks to be a bit more focused this year. No brainer here. Start him if you got him. He could reach the century mark against a bad Denver secondary. If he scores, expect some kind of TD celebration that will be featured on ESPN.

Great effort, laughinboy!Thanks for the time it takes to post these and get discussions started that help many of us make lineup decisions.I had to quote the above just because I wonder how many leagues give bonuses for ESPN-featured TD celebrations.

 

[sspunisher]

Colston coming off of injury too, Moore = major value

Moore is not undervalued. He had those numbers last year b/c Colston, Shockey, AND Bush were all dealing with injuries, who else was going to catch the ball? To be fair, even though he is SLIGHTLY overvalued, he's not THAT overvalued. He's a #2 WR (3/4th target in the offense), but if anyone in the league is getting to his 3rd, 4th, and 5th reads, it's Drew Brees.

 

[DarkManX]

Always a good read mate

 

[moviedude25]

The latest news on Berrian is

Sep 1 WR Bernard Berrian has returned to practice on a limited basis but missed a second consecutive game on Aug. 31 in Houston because of a hamstring injury. Berrian, who was hurt in the Vikings' preseason opener at Indianapolis, was held out against Houston after going through pre-game warmups. He is expected to be ready for the Vikings' regular-season opener on Sept. 13 at Cleveland.

Why wouldn't you exploit that matchup?

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

The latest news on Berrian isSep 1 WR Bernard Berrian has returned to practice on a limited basis but missed a second consecutive game on Aug. 31 in Houston because of a hamstring injury. Berrian, who was hurt in the Vikings' preseason opener at Indianapolis, was held out against Houston after going through pre-game warmups. He is expected to be ready for the Vikings' regular-season opener on Sept. 13 at Cleveland. Why wouldn't you exploit that matchup?

Because he's Bernard Berrian?

 

[harryhood]

Good work here LB, however Greg Olsen, in a PPR league that starts a TE, should not be avoided....probably ever.

 

[MNTom]

Colston coming off of injury too, Moore = major value

Moore is not undervalued. He had those numbers last year b/c Colston, Shockey, AND Bush were all dealing with injuries, who else was going to catch the ball? To be fair, even though he is SLIGHTLY overvalued, he's not THAT overvalued. He's a #2 WR (3/4th target in the offense), but if anyone in the league is getting to his 3rd, 4th, and 5th reads, it's Drew Brees.

His average draft postion is about WR #26-30 and being taken at the end of round six to beginning of round seven. Seems about right to me. And Brees seems to love throwing to him even in the red zone.

 

[Ripleys]

for those that said you'd NEVER bench Bowe, can I assume you would bench him in favor of Calvin, Boldin, and Steve Smith? Or would you actually bench one of those 3 for Bowe??

 

[Instinctive]

Nice write up, but I don't get the Brett Favre comment (again)

He doesn't like throwing to a TE more than any other QB. Look at his career targets stats. We've had this discussion before, so when i get home tonight I will try to look it up. But until then, that is just false and you gotta either believe me or look it up yourself.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

for those that said you'd NEVER bench Bowe, can I assume you would bench him in favor of Calvin, Boldin, and Steve Smith? Or would you actually bench one of those 3 for Bowe??

If Bowe was my WR4, I'd be looking for a more competitive league...just sayin.

 

[Yitbos69]

for those that said you'd NEVER bench Bowe, can I assume you would bench him in favor of Calvin, Boldin, and Steve Smith? Or would you actually bench one of those 3 for Bowe??

The odds that many teams have Calvin, Boldin and SS is remote....I know they are out there but they are the exception not the rule.....in most cases Bowe is a 16 game starter

 

[Brides Maids]

Just wondering, didn't see a pick for finial score in the Pack/Bears game, any projection here?

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Just wondering, didn't see a pick for finial score in the Pack/Bears game, any projection here?

Thanks Brides Maids...I think the Pack have their way with the Bears...Pack: 27Bears: 17