The Jerk
Footballguy
Thanks as always for making me think, Doug.
I understand the point you're making concerning the first round. However, it would be more interesting if you used the unproven/proven approach used later in the article for the first round. My gut tells me that the 200 point advantage possible in the first round doesn't occur nearly as often as the bust that costs 100 points or so. A more thorough analysis of each draft spot 1-12 would potentially shed more light on this one way or the other.
As to the unproven QB, I think it's no surprise that unproven QBs have lower ADPs than they should. In many cases, this unproven QB is being drafted as a backup. If most teams that were the last in their leagues to draft a QB follow my league's patterns, these last to draft QB teams often double up a round or two later. In many cases, they draft more conservatively because they may be planning a QBBC rather than taking a flier on an unproven QB. This could account for some of the discrepancy.
Anyway, thanks again for an interesting read.
I understand the point you're making concerning the first round. However, it would be more interesting if you used the unproven/proven approach used later in the article for the first round. My gut tells me that the 200 point advantage possible in the first round doesn't occur nearly as often as the bust that costs 100 points or so. A more thorough analysis of each draft spot 1-12 would potentially shed more light on this one way or the other.
As to the unproven QB, I think it's no surprise that unproven QBs have lower ADPs than they should. In many cases, this unproven QB is being drafted as a backup. If most teams that were the last in their leagues to draft a QB follow my league's patterns, these last to draft QB teams often double up a round or two later. In many cases, they draft more conservatively because they may be planning a QBBC rather than taking a flier on an unproven QB. This could account for some of the discrepancy.
Anyway, thanks again for an interesting read.
