Your 2025 Kentucky Derby winner is about to run. In only his 2nd race. Cornucopian. ETA: I'm a loser, baaaby! (1 Viewer)

[Harry Frogfish]

Baffert is loaded again with a solid group of 3YOs coming in, but I think this one is the cream of the crop.

For him to put him in the Grade I Arkansas Derby in only his second race, and first around two turns, and at 9 furlongs no less, speaks volumes. His first race was stunning, flashing brilliance sprinting in an eye-popping time and doing so easily. His closing fractions were that which you don't see on dirt and from a 3YO, no less. And that's after going fast early and taking some heat. His final 1/4 in 23.52 you just don't see. His last 1/8th, where he’s not really ridden was 11.3, again nuts for a dirt sprint. You might see that for a good turf horse, not a first-time starting 3YO in a dirt sprint.

Coal Battle is obviously more seasoned and ready for this race, as are others. Baffert's getting this guy ready for Churchill Downs, but he does need the points to get there.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

 

[Harry Frogfish]

WHOA! That was over after a half mile. Crazy speed duel between those two. 45 and change, 1:10:2? Nuts. Ugh.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

He won't be running in it now, needed the points. Surprised he was even around in the end, finishing 4th. Jock knew he was spent and didn't get after him which was good. Speed King, the sacrificial lamb who pressed him, is still running.

He'll be back, ton of talent, but down the road.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

I was on Publisher. He ran a big one from the back. Curious you see if they run him in Kentucky as maiden

 

[Penguin]

I was listening to VISN earlier and the biggest concern was whether Cornucopian could get the 1 1/8

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[Harry Frogfish]

I was on Publisher. He ran a big one from the back. Curious you see if they run him in Kentucky as maiden

If he has enough points to get in the field. A system, ironically enough (considering today's race), put into place so you didn't have horses that don't belong, with owners that just wanted to run and be a part of the parade. Bodemeister's Derby comes to mind, when he was pushed to absurd fractions throughout by a sprinter who had zero chance at going 1 1/4 miles. It was just that his owner, a Prince or Sheikh I believe, that wanted to go run in it to experience the week's festivities or some ****.

I still say Bodemeister would've won the Derby that year had they not let a rabbit ruin it. He still finished 2nd and held on until deep stretch, an incredible effort. He gets any sort of breather or just fractions that weren't historically fast, he wins that thing.

Back to Publisher. I'll look at his race and his others (haven't seen them) later. Great performance for a maiden but keep in mind the way everything unfolded, being behind was the place to be.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Publisher looked like he wanted more distance

 

[Harry Frogfish]

I was listening to VISN earlier and the biggest concern was whether Cornucopian could get the 1 1/8

Yeah, no doubt. But that's not because he doesn't have the breeding, it's there. He's by Into Mischief, top sire for awhile now. Out of a Distorted Humor mare.

I was willing to bypass the fact he had never gone two turns, much less 9 furlongs, as mentioned in the first post, due to the fact that if Baffert thought he could do it, that was good enough for me.

There's also the fact this horse had been ready to run in November but had a minor setback. And so they re-arranged their Derby plans to take the course of Justify, who as we all know won the Triple Crown. Baffert was on record as saying he had a lot more seasoning underneath him than your typical first time starter. They were pointing for the Derby all along and in a stable full of Derby hopefuls, this one was rumored to have become one of their best shots. But it's horse racing and a million things can go wrong, like today and how the race unfolded into a sprint.

Hell, he raced without lasix today, which they gave him in his first race. Who knows, that may not have helped. Although I don't think he would've survived that speed duel, regardless.

 

[Harry Frogfish]

Publisher looked like he wanted more distance

That's big. Gallop-outs get overlooked, imo. It all depends on the race you're looking at, obviously, and yeah, means nothing for many races/classes. But in handicapping a race in which not one horse has ever raced that far, and with an extra furlong that absolutely can make or break a horse, I think it's something that never should go overlooked. I'll watch literally every one of them in the field, like most race fans, but also what they do after the finish line as well. A lot can be gleaned from it. Maybe not very often, but all you need is one. Or a couple here and there, to make a big difference in your day. It can show you something that most aren't seeing. Hell, that's the whole point, right? To find something others didn't. I mean, that's who you're betting against.

 

[Runkle]

Looks like I'm going to be pulling for Rodriguez, winner of the win-and-in Wood Memorial last weekend

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Looks like I'm going to be pulling for Rodriguez, winner of the win-and-in Wood Memorial last weekend

Last Saturday was the only big derby preps I didn’t watch live. I’m going to have to watch some replays