Some post mortems, comments and lessons learned:
1) The Derby is such a rush. Greatest 2 minutes in sports. From a handicapper's perspective, it is the greatest puzzle to solve.
2) Most of the old axioms are out. Horses having too few races, horses coming from UAE, Japan, etc. If you have a fast enough horse who has the right style and can get a mile and a quarter you can win
3) Japan will win this sooner than later and is a threat for all of the big events. They already are winning those, including Breeder's Cups, Dubai World Cup and in Europe. They are especially good at training for stamina. God bless those Sunday Silence (my favorite horse ever) bloodlines.
4) Forever Young was the best horse in the race yesterday. Sierra Leone bothered him big time (mutual bumping, but it was started by SL and it continued the last 16th, including Gafflione reaching over - what was that?). Bumping caused both horses to lose but it was worse for Forever Young. Here was Forever Young's trip. I've never seen a horse overcome this kind of trip in the Derby
" FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) lunged at the start and was away slow, was caught in traffic into the first turn and steadied near the fifteen-sixteenths pole, leveled into stride and moved out five wide, mounted a long drive a half mile out, moved up swiftly through the second turn, came seven wide into the stretch, swapped bumps repeatedly with SIERRA LEONE through the upper stretch, battled on stubbornly between rivals thereafter but was narrowly bested"
5) TO Password's race was also unreal, proving Japan is going to win this. He also had a brutal trip and after the top 4 was the only horse finishing down the lane to finish 5th. Almost unimaginable to think with a horse with 2 lifetime starts and shipping from another country could run that good of a race in the Derby
6) Fierceness proved once again the dangers of a one dimensional speed horse going 1 1/4 miles in the Derby, no matter how fast. Baffert had several go wire to wire in the past decade but overall it's still tough to do. Have to get a perfect break with everything going their way. Fierceness hopped a bit, but just wasn't good enough. Pletcher did a poor job of getting this horse to learn how to rate. He's still the fastest horse in the class, but was an iffy bet yesterday with some of us getting lulled by his odds drifting up from 8-5 to 7/2. Probably won't see him again until the Travers.
7) If you think the top speed horse may fold, probably should toss all of the other speed as well. Just Steel and Just a Touch completely caved in.
8) Prat has shown repeatedly that he can get his horses clear and running down the lane in the Derby. Catching Freedom had a similar trip as Angel of Envy and was coming. Not good enough to win, but right there.
9) Mystik Dan was a complete whiff by me - and it only takes one. He was fast enough running a 103 and a 97, but it got in my mind that his big race at Oaklawn was aided by the slop. He got a similar ground saving ride on the rail (brilliant ride by Hernandez) and opened up, just like at Oaklawn. He should have been on the list of contenders. I think he was 3rd best with the outside 2 costing themselves with the trip and bumping, but Mystik Dan's win was no fluke. He was in perfect position the entire way, no worse than 6th, then pounced when the rail opened. He belonged and I missed it. Especially since he loved wet ground and there was moisture at Churchill. I should have pivoted and included him on that fact alone. Proves why this is the greatest puzzle to solve.
On to the Preakness and Belmont!