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Official 2025 Kentucky Derby thread - Sovereignty 1, Journalism 1 - on to the Belmont! (1 Viewer)

Was doing serious research (trying to find out which are the grey horses in the Preakness and found this very valid information):
Linky to very valid and serious info

"

Benefits of Racing Grey Horses in Preakness​

Grey horses have many advantages when it comes to racing in the Preakness. Grey horses are known for their agility, speed, and endurance, which makes them ideal for long distance races like the Preakness. Grey horses also have the advantage of being able to blend in with the crowd, making them less likely to be noticed or singled out by the crowd.

🐴

-QG
 
Hoping Determined Kingdom just needed a race after a 6 month layoff. 5 furlongs on turf at this level is a crapshoot.
 
QuizGuy66 said:
Was doing serious research (trying to find out which are the grey horses in the Preakness and found this very valid information):
Linky to very valid and serious info

"

Benefits of Racing Grey Horses in Preakness​

Grey horses have many advantages when it comes to racing in the Preakness. Grey horses are known for their agility, speed, and endurance, which makes them ideal for long distance races like the Preakness. Grey horses also have the advantage of being able to blend in with the crowd, making them less likely to be noticed or singled out by the crowd.

🐴

-QG
Click to expand...
I think the crowd would be able to notice that there's a horse trying to blend in with them.
 
Okay so I need a combo with Gosger and Sandman.

And I gotta put $2 on Billy bc of my brother.

Other than that it is probably the board chalk for me today

-QG
 
Judge Smails said:
I'm trying hard to stick to my guns and not getting drawn in by Baffert. You just feel like an idiot when you toss Baffert in a big race and he wins. Journalism is going to get a trip no matter what. Can't see an exacta without him in it. Either one of the speed horses gets game (Clever Again, Goal Oriented) and Journalism tackles them in the stretch or speed fades, Journalism opens up and Sandman comes. I watched Goal Oriented's videos. His first race was very impressive. Rated near the back and drew off - but it was 6 furlongs. 91 Beyer. Then he ships for an undercard race on Derby Day. Sloppy track, so hard to tell much. Showed speed, game in the lane, hung on to win by 3/4 of a length. Others were coming at him - he didn't draw off. Beyer unchanged - 91. So didn't move up. But going from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 and shipping for the second race is no small feat. So now he ships again, goes another 1/8th of a mile and will have hotter speed. I think he's a good horse and will get better The question is - is it too much to ask this soon? If he couldn't draw off in an allowance race, how does he win here? There are several others who appear faster or just as fast early. Clever Again for sure. River Thames is fast. American Promise has one way to go. How does he get a comfortable trip where he can last that last 1/8th? Think I talked myself back into excluding him.

I'm still on Clever Again and Journalism as the most likely exacta box. I sure wish Sandman didn't have all that social media money following him - as this is the race where he could bounce back now that he's off the CD surface. He is going to have to come from dead last though - not ideal for the Preakness. Will have backups Sandman to both of them and in tri boxes. I'm going to bank on Journalism in the exacta (I know, some big reach) and either Clever Again or Sandman firing. Will check probables but leaning $100 exacta boxes. Bigger tri's with both Clever Again and Sandman in 3rd. Smaller tri's if one of those don't fire (maybe Clever Again breaks bad or gets cooked in a speed dual) with maybe Gosger and River Thames (patient jockeys with horses who can rate a bit) only in 3rd. If Clever Again sticks at 5 or 6-1 I will have to put a win bet on him.

A lot depends on the break. If some of the speed doesn't break and somebody gets loose it could be all over, with Journalism having to do too much down the lane.

That's where my head is for now. Let's crush em tomorrow!
Click to expand...
I agree with Clever Again and Journalism. Clever Again drew a great post and will be able to go for the lead or fall back, depending on the inside horses and the opening speed. The race will be in front of him. Also the only other horse to hit 100 Beyer.
Journalism is the class of the field, but I worry about the short layoff.
I don't think the exactor is going to pay much though.
 
anyone who would like to lose the 11th--

6,7,8 ex box, 1,6,7,8 tri box. super with 7 wheeled with 1,6,8
 
Judge Smails said:
Man - don't know if I'm reading this right. $1 exacta from Journalism to Clever Again pays $11. From Clever Again to Journalism pays $7. What?
Click to expand...
You're reading it right. Exacta pool is a separate pool. Maybe people just aren't betting Journalism on top because they think it won't pay.
 
Good luck all! Spreading some of my Derby cash. Bet Clever Again to win. Boxed with Journalism (though hate the price). Sandman saver boxes to both. Have some longshots in tri's and think Irad may draft a good race so have River Thames in 2nd for several exactas in case of a bad break or one of my 2 don't run. Mixed in some supers too. Why not?
 
I'm hoping for a bomb with Clever Again in second, but any combination with journalism/clever again in first and second would work for me.
 
$1 tri 2,6,8/1,2,3,6,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8

I'm really betting on River Thames to win it and using Journo and Clever Again as hedges. Added Promise as a bomb. Won't win much if anything unless it's Thames but F it.

MBS on Clever Again.
 
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