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Official 2025 Kentucky Derby thread - Sovereignty 1, Journalism 1 - on to the Belmont! (2 Viewers)

I do agree it would water down the triple crown from horses that had to do the current grind. Probably why it hasn't been done. Preakness is going to become an also ran type race.
 
Judge Smails said:
I do agree it would water down the triple crown from horses that had to do the current grind. Probably why it hasn't been done. Preakness is going to become an also ran type race.
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Well yeah.....you can't just change it. It cheapens the triple crown chase and is unfair to horses from history.

I feel the same way about NFL records. It's entirely unfair to compare today's rushing or receiving or passing stats to heros from the past who played in 2, 3, 4 or 5 less games than the current players.
 
Cowboysfan8 said:
General Malaise said:
Well yeah.....you can't just change it. It cheapens the triple crown chase and is unfair to horses from history.
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This
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but everything has to change and modernize, to me it’s progress. i mean, we can talk records all we want, but the NHL once had 6 teams, MLB played 154 games and didn’t have multiple playoff rounds, NBA didn’t always have a 3 line and the NFL played 12, 14 and 16 game schedules. don’t forget how those hideous thursday games screw everything. pretty sure this won’t diminish secretariat, affirmed, et al. in fact, i’m confidant they won’t mind at all. first saturday may, saturday of memorial day or first saturday june and first saturday july sounds reasonable to me. give em 30 days. back to affirmed, it was different back then, he ran 11 races at 3 (8-2-dq i think) and i think races at 4. there is so much money involved nowadays. the derby was Sov’s 3rd race of 2025. maybe he gets 2 more? Pharaoh didn’t race at 4 as an fyi.
 
Chemical X said:
Cowboysfan8 said:
General Malaise said:
Well yeah.....you can't just change it. It cheapens the triple crown chase and is unfair to horses from history.
Click to expand...
This
Click to expand...
but everything has to change and modernize, to me it’s progress. i mean, we can talk records all we want, but the NHL once had 6 teams, MLB played 154 games and didn’t have multiple playoff rounds, NBA didn’t always have a 3 line and the NFL played 12, 14 and 16 game schedules. don’t forget how those hideous thursday games screw everything. pretty sure this won’t diminish secretariat, affirmed, et al. in fact, i’m confidant they won’t mind at all. first saturday may, saturday of memorial day or first saturday june and first saturday july sounds reasonable to me. give em 30 days. back to affirmed, it was different back then, he ran 11 races at 3 (8-2-dq i think) and i think races at 4. there is so much money involved nowadays. the derby was Sov’s 3rd race of 2025. maybe he gets 2 more? Pharaoh didn’t race at 4 as an fyi.
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A lot of great horses don’t race at 4 etc anymore because the owners don’t want to take a risk of them being injured because there is more $ to be made in the breeding shed than there is on the track. Not because they are over raced
 
Time to try and make another score. Preakness field is set, and it got more interesting than I thought it would. Let's start with eliminating the non-contenders:

Goal Oriented - I know, Baffert, wins a ton of these, but this horse has had 2 races, top 91 Beyer, barely hung on going 1 1/16 in an optional claimer and faces big speed. Toss for me.
American Promise - I know, Lukas won last year, but this horse has done nothing other than the VA Derby, top Beyer 95 and only wins when going gate-wire. Faces better speed. Toss.
Heart of Honor - all UAE. No thanks. No group wins, lost to Admire Daytona, top Timeform rating 93. Toss.
Pay Billy - typical Maryland horse who races in restricted stakes. Top Beyer 85. Cheaper speed. No chance. Toss.

Contenders

Tier 1
Journalism - horse to beat and should get a great tracking trip behind the speed. His race to lose - but horses who finish 2nd in the Derby often come back to run 2nd again in the Preakness. Exacta key once again. Took a horse who loved the track in Sovereignty to beat him. Most versatile of the serious contenders.
Sandman - I was on record on hating Sandman in the Derby as his 3 (now 4) worst races were all at CD. Well, he's not on that surface for the Preakness and the connections deciding to come here is a very good sign IMO. Most would wait for the Belmont. Lots of speed in here and I think he closes with a rush with a great set up.
Clever Again - Dangerous speed especially with J. Ortiz on. Chose this one over Sandman. 101 top Beyer so he's fast enough. Should lead at the top of the stretch and then it's a matter if he gets the extra 1/8th. Breeding says no problem being out of American Pharoah. Serious contender.

Tier 2
River Thames - Needs to take another step forward and don't think he does. Top Beyer of 95. Finished 3rd and looked like he was rallying a little in the Bluegrass, but they crawled home. Did battle Sovereignty on the speed favoring Gulfstream track. Not sure he wants to go this far. Faster horses early and faster horses late. Think he runs an even race that may get 3rd/4th at best.
Gosger - fringe player IMO, like River Thames, who at best gets 3rd or 4th. Presser, needs to be in the top flight, top Beyer of 88 and has nothing but the Maiden win and Lexington. Don't love him but Walsh/Saez can't entirely toss.

I think the top 3 are Journalism, Sandman and Clever Again. I will only consider those 3 for win and exacta bets based on odds. Those 3 are my key for tri's as well. Not great prices (morning line 8/5, 4-1, 5-1) but River Thames (9/2) and Goal Oriented (5-1) will take money with their connections so may pay better than you think. I will fade those 2 in the top 2 slots for sure, and only have in 3rd and 4th along with Gosger. But feel really good about my top 3. Journalism isn't a lock. Either Sandman or Clever Again could beat him.

Interested to hear other FBG cappers' thoughts!
 
Judge Smails said:
Time to try and make another score. Preakness field is set, and it got more interesting than I thought it would. Let's start with eliminating the non-contenders:

Goal Oriented - I know, Baffert, wins a ton of these, but this horse has had 2 races, top 91 Beyer, barely hung on going 1 1/16 in an optional claimer and faces big speed. Toss for me.
American Promise - I know, Lukas won last year, but this horse has done nothing other than the VA Derby, top Beyer 95 and only wins when going gate-wire. Faces better speed. Toss.
Heart of Honor - all UAE. No thanks. No group wins, lost to Admire Daytona, top Timeform rating 93. Toss.
Pay Billy - typical Maryland horse who races in restricted stakes. Top Beyer 85. Cheaper speed. No chance. Toss.

Contenders

Tier 1
Journalism - horse to beat and should get a great tracking trip behind the speed. His race to lose - but horses who finish 2nd in the Derby often come back to run 2nd again in the Preakness. Exacta key once again. Took a horse who loved the track in Sovereignty to beat him. Most versatile of the serious contenders.
Sandman - I was on record on hating Sandman in the Derby as his 3 (now 4) worst races were all at CD. Well, he's not on that surface for the Preakness and the connections deciding to come here is a very good sign IMO. Most would wait for the Belmont. Lots of speed in here and I think he closes with a rush with a great set up.
Clever Again - Dangerous speed especially with J. Ortiz on. Chose this one over Sandman. 101 top Beyer so he's fast enough. Should lead at the top of the stretch and then it's a matter if he gets the extra 1/8th. Breeding says no problem being out of American Pharoah. Serious contender.

Tier 2
River Thames - Needs to take another step forward and don't think he does. Top Beyer of 95. Finished 3rd and looked like he was rallying a little in the Bluegrass, but they crawled home. Did battle Sovereignty on the speed favoring Gulfstream track. Not sure he wants to go this far. Faster horses early and faster horses late. Think he runs an even race that may get 3rd/4th at best.
Gosger - fringe player IMO, like River Thames, who at best gets 3rd or 4th. Presser, needs to be in the top flight, top Beyer of 88 and has nothing but the Maiden win and Lexington. Don't love him but Walsh/Saez can't entirely toss.

I think the top 3 are Journalism, Sandman and Clever Again. I will only consider those 3 for win and exacta bets based on odds. Those 3 are my key for tri's as well. Not great prices (morning line 8/5, 4-1, 5-1) but River Thames (9/2) and Goal Oriented (5-1) will take money with their connections so may pay better than you think. I will fade those 2 in the top 2 slots for sure, and only have in 3rd and 4th along with Gosger. But feel really good about my top 3. Journalism isn't a lock. Either Sandman or Clever Again could beat him.

Interested to hear other FBG cappers' thoughts!
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I agree with your top 3. I don't think American Promise is a toss. It ended up 5th in the Derby and didn't run a bad race at all. I'll keep it in some exotics.
 
-fish- said:
Judge Smails said:
Time to try and make another score. Preakness field is set, and it got more interesting than I thought it would. Let's start with eliminating the non-contenders:

Goal Oriented - I know, Baffert, wins a ton of these, but this horse has had 2 races, top 91 Beyer, barely hung on going 1 1/16 in an optional claimer and faces big speed. Toss for me.
American Promise - I know, Lukas won last year, but this horse has done nothing other than the VA Derby, top Beyer 95 and only wins when going gate-wire. Faces better speed. Toss.
Heart of Honor - all UAE. No thanks. No group wins, lost to Admire Daytona, top Timeform rating 93. Toss.
Pay Billy - typical Maryland horse who races in restricted stakes. Top Beyer 85. Cheaper speed. No chance. Toss.

Contenders

Tier 1
Journalism - horse to beat and should get a great tracking trip behind the speed. His race to lose - but horses who finish 2nd in the Derby often come back to run 2nd again in the Preakness. Exacta key once again. Took a horse who loved the track in Sovereignty to beat him. Most versatile of the serious contenders.
Sandman - I was on record on hating Sandman in the Derby as his 3 (now 4) worst races were all at CD. Well, he's not on that surface for the Preakness and the connections deciding to come here is a very good sign IMO. Most would wait for the Belmont. Lots of speed in here and I think he closes with a rush with a great set up.
Clever Again - Dangerous speed especially with J. Ortiz on. Chose this one over Sandman. 101 top Beyer so he's fast enough. Should lead at the top of the stretch and then it's a matter if he gets the extra 1/8th. Breeding says no problem being out of American Pharoah. Serious contender.

Tier 2
River Thames - Needs to take another step forward and don't think he does. Top Beyer of 95. Finished 3rd and looked like he was rallying a little in the Bluegrass, but they crawled home. Did battle Sovereignty on the speed favoring Gulfstream track. Not sure he wants to go this far. Faster horses early and faster horses late. Think he runs an even race that may get 3rd/4th at best.
Gosger - fringe player IMO, like River Thames, who at best gets 3rd or 4th. Presser, needs to be in the top flight, top Beyer of 88 and has nothing but the Maiden win and Lexington. Don't love him but Walsh/Saez can't entirely toss.

I think the top 3 are Journalism, Sandman and Clever Again. I will only consider those 3 for win and exacta bets based on odds. Those 3 are my key for tri's as well. Not great prices (morning line 8/5, 4-1, 5-1) but River Thames (9/2) and Goal Oriented (5-1) will take money with their connections so may pay better than you think. I will fade those 2 in the top 2 slots for sure, and only have in 3rd and 4th along with Gosger. But feel really good about my top 3. Journalism isn't a lock. Either Sandman or Clever Again could beat him.

Interested to hear other FBG cappers' thoughts!
Click to expand...
I agree with your top 3. I don't think American Promise is a toss. It ended up 5th in the Derby and didn't run a bad race at all. I'll keep it in some exotics.
Click to expand...
Think you're mixing him up with Owen Almighty. American Promise finished 16th.
 
Judge Smails said:
-fish- said:
Judge Smails said:
Time to try and make another score. Preakness field is set, and it got more interesting than I thought it would. Let's start with eliminating the non-contenders:

Goal Oriented - I know, Baffert, wins a ton of these, but this horse has had 2 races, top 91 Beyer, barely hung on going 1 1/16 in an optional claimer and faces big speed. Toss for me.
American Promise - I know, Lukas won last year, but this horse has done nothing other than the VA Derby, top Beyer 95 and only wins when going gate-wire. Faces better speed. Toss.
Heart of Honor - all UAE. No thanks. No group wins, lost to Admire Daytona, top Timeform rating 93. Toss.
Pay Billy - typical Maryland horse who races in restricted stakes. Top Beyer 85. Cheaper speed. No chance. Toss.

Contenders

Tier 1
Journalism - horse to beat and should get a great tracking trip behind the speed. His race to lose - but horses who finish 2nd in the Derby often come back to run 2nd again in the Preakness. Exacta key once again. Took a horse who loved the track in Sovereignty to beat him. Most versatile of the serious contenders.
Sandman - I was on record on hating Sandman in the Derby as his 3 (now 4) worst races were all at CD. Well, he's not on that surface for the Preakness and the connections deciding to come here is a very good sign IMO. Most would wait for the Belmont. Lots of speed in here and I think he closes with a rush with a great set up.
Clever Again - Dangerous speed especially with J. Ortiz on. Chose this one over Sandman. 101 top Beyer so he's fast enough. Should lead at the top of the stretch and then it's a matter if he gets the extra 1/8th. Breeding says no problem being out of American Pharoah. Serious contender.

Tier 2
River Thames - Needs to take another step forward and don't think he does. Top Beyer of 95. Finished 3rd and looked like he was rallying a little in the Bluegrass, but they crawled home. Did battle Sovereignty on the speed favoring Gulfstream track. Not sure he wants to go this far. Faster horses early and faster horses late. Think he runs an even race that may get 3rd/4th at best.
Gosger - fringe player IMO, like River Thames, who at best gets 3rd or 4th. Presser, needs to be in the top flight, top Beyer of 88 and has nothing but the Maiden win and Lexington. Don't love him but Walsh/Saez can't entirely toss.

I think the top 3 are Journalism, Sandman and Clever Again. I will only consider those 3 for win and exacta bets based on odds. Those 3 are my key for tri's as well. Not great prices (morning line 8/5, 4-1, 5-1) but River Thames (9/2) and Goal Oriented (5-1) will take money with their connections so may pay better than you think. I will fade those 2 in the top 2 slots for sure, and only have in 3rd and 4th along with Gosger. But feel really good about my top 3. Journalism isn't a lock. Either Sandman or Clever Again could beat him.

Interested to hear other FBG cappers' thoughts!
Click to expand...
I agree with your top 3. I don't think American Promise is a toss. It ended up 5th in the Derby and didn't run a bad race at all. I'll keep it in some exotics.
Click to expand...
Think you're mixing him up with Owen Almighty. American Promise finished 16th.
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I don't know what I was thinking about. Maybe Burnham Square coming in 6th.

I like Journalism and Clever Again. Sandman can hit the board.
 
i think journalism is the most talented horse in the field but, clever again was steered towards this race and has the benefit of rest. i know i’m not right saying this but, every preakness seemingly has a horse get a lead and stay. the deep closers just don’t seem to have enough track nor stretch to gain enough ground. i think clever again wires them. broke his maiden 2/23 at oaklawn, same day as the rebel, which had 4 derby horses entered. ortiz used the whip once and showed it to him, but seemed like he had a lot left. 1.43 plus, about the same as the rebel. seems he could’ve gone sub 1.43. my .02.
 
Judge Smails said:
Cowboysfan8 said:
I read that Junior got a 2 day suspension for hitting Sovereignty 8 times in the derby. Apparently only up to 6 is allowed
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He did. They are making too big of a deal out of it. Zero impact on the outcome. Fine and 2 day suspension. Not a big deal IMO.
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it's pretty standard to fine 10% of earnings for the race and a one day suspension. wonder if his was more because he was 2 over. not a big deal, but technically an advantage when everyone else follows the rules
 
Read this tidbit; In the last 15 years, 14 of the Preakness winners were close to the early pace. Exaggerator in 2016 on a sloppy and sealed track was the only closer to win during that time span.
 
Looking at Journalism/Clever Again on top with Sandman, River Thames and Gosger rounding out the tris and supers. Maybe a little Goal Oriented. Not very exciting bets.
 
Got destroyed on Churchill Downs today.

Preakness bets I decided not to wait and ended up keying journalism and clever again in trifectas with Sandman, River Thames, Gosger and Goal Oriented. A couple supers with the same horses.
 
By the way, degenerates, I'm too lazy to find the gambling thread, but a Dalton Rushing HR in the Dodgers game tonight is a fun 5-1 bet. First start in the majors and he's been absolutely mashing in AAA.
 
General Malaise said:
No Good Cheer in the Black Eyed Susan? Huh......


Might try and find a horse or two in this one.....boredom is a terrible thing.
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I got a couple bets going today, but in the 5th I like the 6/5 favorite so not a lot to get excited about

6th I like a 2/6/9 ex box and tri box
 
I'm trying hard to stick to my guns and not getting drawn in by Baffert. You just feel like an idiot when you toss Baffert in a big race and he wins. Journalism is going to get a trip no matter what. Can't see an exacta without him in it. Either one of the speed horses gets game (Clever Again, Goal Oriented) and Journalism tackles them in the stretch or speed fades, Journalism opens up and Sandman comes. I watched Goal Oriented's videos. His first race was very impressive. Rated near the back and drew off - but it was 6 furlongs. 91 Beyer. Then he ships for an undercard race on Derby Day. Sloppy track, so hard to tell much. Showed speed, game in the lane, hung on to win by 3/4 of a length. Others were coming at him - he didn't draw off. Beyer unchanged - 91. So didn't move up. But going from 6 furlongs to 1 1/16 and shipping for the second race is no small feat. So now he ships again, goes another 1/8th of a mile and will have hotter speed. I think he's a good horse and will get better The question is - is it too much to ask this soon? If he couldn't draw off in an allowance race, how does he win here? There are several others who appear faster or just as fast early. Clever Again for sure. River Thames is fast. American Promise has one way to go. How does he get a comfortable trip where he can last that last 1/8th? Think I talked myself back into excluding him.

I'm still on Clever Again and Journalism as the most likely exacta box. I sure wish Sandman didn't have all that social media money following him - as this is the race where he could bounce back now that he's off the CD surface. He is going to have to come from dead last though - not ideal for the Preakness. Will have backups Sandman to both of them and in tri boxes. I'm going to bank on Journalism in the exacta (I know, some big reach) and either Clever Again or Sandman firing. Will check probables but leaning $100 exacta boxes. Bigger tri's with both Clever Again and Sandman in 3rd. Smaller tri's if one of those don't fire (maybe Clever Again breaks bad or gets cooked in a speed dual) with maybe Gosger and River Thames (patient jockeys with horses who can rate a bit) only in 3rd. If Clever Again sticks at 5 or 6-1 I will have to put a win bet on him.

A lot depends on the break. If some of the speed doesn't break and somebody gets loose it could be all over, with Journalism having to do too much down the lane.

That's where my head is for now. Let's crush em tomorrow!
 
I did a quick search, but I couldn't find a list of Beyer figures for previous winners of this race. Does anyone know if a Beyer of under 100 ever won the Preakness?
 
Think doing exacta box with Journalism and Clever Again. Will probably do a few other bets as well - maybe a place on Journalism but that isn’t paying anything so probably won’t.

Maybe a flyer on Gosger?
 
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MBS on Apple Picker in Race 6 - need 2nd at least since it's only 6 horses.

ETA Not a great start!
 
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