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Official 2025 Kentucky Derby thread - Sovereignty 1, Journalism 1 - on to the Belmont! (1 Viewer)

Morning folks - let's get after 'em on Derby Day! I'm taking a shot on the #7 here in race 3 at CD. Hypnus. McPeek/Hernandez. First race out he rated at a distance and came flying in the slop at the Fair Grounds. Excellent Beyer, 85, going 2 turns first out. Then they put him on the Derby trail into Grade 2's and 3's. Didn't disgrace himself. Tons of speed in the race and many are coming off of 6 furlong efforts. I think he comes flying. 7-1. 1 and 3 are also interesting to me with their style.
 
Judge Smails said:
Morning folks - let's get after 'em on Derby Day! I'm taking a shot on the #7 here in race 3 at CD. Hypnus. McPeek/Hernandez. First race out he rated at a distance and came flying in the slop at the Fair Grounds. Excellent Beyer, 85, going 2 turns first out. Then they put him on the Derby trail into Grade 2's and 3's. Didn't disgrace himself. Tons of speed in the race and many are coming off of 6 furlong efforts. I think he comes flying. 7-1. 1 and 3 are also interesting to me with their style.
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Geez. Would have bet my life at the top of the lane that the 7 wins. Shifted, couldn't get straight, etc. Had $10 box with the favorite but had $50 to win on the 7. Was very confident. Oh well.
 
Playing around with Derby exotics. I'm thinking of keying Sovereignty and Baeza in tri's and supers. Both prices. Journalism is obvious and will be on tickets. Going to throw in Final Gambit and Luxor Cafe on some tickets for top 3, then fill the late closers in the 4th slot only. Publisher, Tiztastic. Maybe Sandman. He's the only one I'm not sure on. Hate his price, think it was a slow finish, but can't knock his form. So he'll be on some tickets. But I'm really confident Sovereignty and Baeza work out a trip. My only fear with Baeza is going to quick early, but Prat has been a master of judging pace in the Derby.
 
-fish- said:
Some familiar horses in the 8th. Mindframe has won me some money before, so I'll stick with him here. $20 win and 7/10/all tri
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Nysos was the heavy early favorite for last year's Derby. 15 months off from the races is a REALLY long time, but he may be a monster.
 
Man another tough beat. 2 thought he won - dead heat for 2nd. Still had exacta and tri but woulda paid much more had he got up. Plus lost the $20 win bet
 
Derby
I think your winner comes out of journalism, sandman, sovereignty or Baeza

Gambit wouldn’t shock me and I’ll sprinkle him on on top

Longer shot Publisher or Coal Battle

Burnham, flying Mohawk and Tiztanic on the bottom

Tossing everything else

1 - Sandman
2 - Gambit
3 - Baeza
4 - Publisher
 
So 8 and 9 are pretty much the only horses in this race to have a recent race on mud and they finished 1-2 in that order in that race so there's that.
Race 10 that is.

$3 win on #8
$1 ex box #8/#9

-QG
 
Hope Road with a great race to get second. Last minute money dropped it from11-1 to 8-1 at the gate, but still a decent cash
 
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