Your 5 ABSOLUTE "DO NOT DRAFT" 2018 redraft players (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

Multiple people saying McCoy as an absolute don't draft are cra-cray. The likelihood of him getting suspended this season are dropping with each passing day (if he gets suspended at all). McCoy has averaged 20 touches a game in his tenure with Buffalo. Yes, he hit 30 years old. Yes, the Bills offense may be horrid. But unless people think he is going to get hurt, even if his efficiency drops, Buffalo has few weapons and no real up and coming RB to take the job away from McCoy. Based on workload alone, EVERYONE should want McCoy. 300 touch running backs don't grow on trees. He's averaged 102 yfs/gm and 0.63 TD/gm in his time with the Bills. Of backs that have played at least 20 games over the past 3 years, he's averaged 14 ppg in 0 PPR leagues (ranking 6th of those that qualified).

In the past 25 years, there have been 276 times that a RB has had 300 or more touches . . . 273 of them scored 200 points in 0 PPR leagues, and the 3 that didn't scored 198. Last year, 198 points would have ranked 8th. McCoy's ADP in expert leagues is RB23. His overall ADP in expert leagues is 57th overall. McCoy is a gift at the end of the 5th round.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Multiple people saying McCoy as an absolute don't draft are cra-cray.

Plus Daboll really loves passing to his RBs, he could conceivably receive a 18-20% market share in this offense. I keep looking at my projections and even without inflated TD totals and inefficient per touch averages his ADP seems silly low in full PPR. 

 

[kyoun1e]

In two PPR leagues this year and I draft #2 and #3 respectively.

1. McKinnon -- Would be an option at the 2/3 turn for me. Nope. Feel like that price is way too high. Brieda is going to get a lot of work. And have this funny feeling that the SF love is a bit inflated.

2. M. Evans -- Too many weeks he goes poof. Winston out first 4 weeks. Don't like him at the 2/3 turn at all.

3. A. Cooper -- Had him last year. Ooof. Not convinced he's just not that good. Also have a gut feel that Oakland is just going to be an all around trainwreck.

4. R. Wilson -- Have ridden Wilson the last couple of years and I'm getting off the train this year. Price is still high and that O-line is terrible and weapons have gone bye bye. I know a lot of people think a lousier defense will help Wilson, but I'm not so sure. Seattle just seems like they will be worse all around.

5. M. Lynch -- See A. Cooper above. Old. Flakey. Not touching anything Oakland this year.

 

[beerbuff]

Ertz & Jones for me all day.

Ertz and Jones. The Cardinals lost their center which means Bradfords life expectancy throwing to Fitz has been shortened even more than it already was.

 

[Mongidig]

The Cardinals may have trouble scoring 15 TDs all season (yes hyperbole). On paper they look to have, perhaps the worst offensive line in the league. Rookie QB at some point probably sooner rather than later, not gonna be much room for Johnson to work.

Actually, on paper the Cardinals have a decent starting line. The problem is most of these guy's have suffered through injuries and the Cards have no depth. This team could be bad but I wouldn't be surprised if they over achieve this year.

The problem with picking early in drafts this year is if you don't go RB the choices are sketchy in round two. DJ is gonna have a solid floor. His ceiling will be determined by whether the Cards stink or play well. I'm not pumping my fist if I take him, but I'm not hating it either. He's a stud and is gonna get tons of volume on the ground and through the air. 

I think he scores closer to 10 TD's this year with 15 TD upside. 

I do think he has a wider range of outcomes than some of the other stud RB's. 

 

[Gottabesweet]

Deshaun Watson

Adam Theilen

Zach Ertz

Derrick Henry

Demarrius Thomas

 

[Chaka]

Actually, on paper the Cardinals have a decent starting line. The problem is most of these guy's have suffered through injuries and the Cards have no depth. This team could be bad but I wouldn't be surprised if they over achieve this year.

The problem with picking early in drafts this year is if you don't go RB the choices are sketchy in round two. DJ is gonna have a solid floor. His ceiling will be determined by whether the Cards stink or play well. I'm not pumping my fist if I take him, but I'm not hating it either. He's a stud and is gonna get tons of volume on the ground and through the air. 

I think he scores closer to 10 TD's this year with 15 TD upside. 

I do think he has a wider range of outcomes than some of the other stud RB's. 

I think we agree about DJ the player and his opportunities this season. DJ will get volume, no question about it and he absolutely has top tier talent with, seemingly, a nose for the end zone but I have to put him at the bottom tier of the first round RBs.

Iupati is the only player with demonstrated high end ability on that line. He has been the real deal in the past. Humphries may actually be a solid player (PFF likes him enough). Shipley, an average starter to begin with is gone. Pugh and Smith have occasionally, and inconsistently, played above average at times. All four starters have missed multiple games over the past three seasons and this unit, as it stands now, has only two players who started a game together last season (Humphries and Iupati started one game together in 2017 and 13 in 2016). No unit in the league is starting from scratch at the level Arizona is facing right now. If all the stars align, they may be marginally above average, which would constitute a big win for them, although losing Shipley makes even that unlikely.

Beyond that, outside of Fitz, who doesn't stretch the field, where is DJ going to get help on this offense? 

 

[beerbuff]

Also, let’s remember DJ’s injury was a wrist not a knee/lower body. He’s fresh!!

Countered by the fact they just lost their starting center.

 

[Mongidig]

I think we agree about DJ the player and his opportunities this season. DJ will get volume, no question about it and he absolutely has top tier talent with, seemingly, a nose for the end zone but I have to put him at the bottom tier of the first round RBs.

Iupati is the only player with demonstrated high end ability on that line. He has been the real deal in the past. Humphries may actually be a solid player (PFF likes him enough). Shipley, an average starter to begin with is gone. Pugh and Smith have occasionally, and inconsistently, played above average at times. All four starters have missed multiple games over the past three seasons and this unit, as it stands now, has only two players who started a game together last season (Humphries and Iupati started one game together in 2017 and 13 in 2016). No unit in the league is starting from scratch at the level Arizona is facing right now. If all the stars align, they may be marginally above average, which would constitute a big win for them, although losing Shipley makes even that unlikely.

Beyond that, outside of Fitz, who doesn't stretch the field, where is DJ going to get help on this offense? 

Greg Little!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Beyond that, outside of Fitz, who doesn't stretch the field, where is DJ going to get help on this offense? 

Brice Butler has shown to be a downfield playmaker when he gets a shot....JJ Nelson can stretch the field with the best of them...Christian Kirk is a promising rookie...and Ricky Seals-Jones showed big play ability as a TE. Bradford is not a bad QB when healthy - and Mike Glennon is actually behind him with Rosen in the mix as well.

The o-line being bad is not a plus obviously but a bad o-line can be countered with dump-offs and bubble screens to the RB - and DJ excels in the passing game.

Bottom tier of the first round RBs? I'm sure we could nitpick Barkley, Gordon, Fournette, Hunt and Cook as well. At worst DJ should be ranked as RB4 based on talent and volume. Anything else and you are over-thinking.

ETA: I am taking ppr leagues so if you play in standard it's a bit more debatable at least.

 

[Short Corner]

In two PPR leagues this year and I draft #2 and #3 respectively.

1. McKinnon -- Would be an option at the 2/3 turn for me. Nope. Feel like that price is way too high. Brieda is going to get a lot of work. And have this funny feeling that the SF love is a bit inflated.

2. M. Evans -- Too many weeks he goes poof. Winston out first 4 weeks. Don't like him at the 2/3 turn at all.

3. A. Cooper -- Had him last year. Ooof. Not convinced he's just not that good. Also have a gut feel that Oakland is just going to be an all around trainwreck.

4. R. Wilson -- Have ridden Wilson the last couple of years and I'm getting off the train this year. Price is still high and that O-line is terrible and weapons have gone bye bye. I know a lot of people think a lousier defense will help Wilson, but I'm not so sure. Seattle just seems like they will be worse all around.

5. M. Lynch -- See A. Cooper above. Old. Flakey. Not touching anything Oakland this year.

I think it's safe to say that anyone who had Cooper in their lineups last year will not be drafting him again.  Ever.  Dude looked like he was all thumbs out there at times.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Ajayi will NEVER be the main guy in Philly no matter what we collectively wish..he wont have more than about 200 carries ( check stats on Pedersons RB usage thru the years) . Sproles is back.Clement is hanging around. 

Disagree here.  Unless Ajayi gets hurt he'll have well over 200 carries.  I'd say anywhere from 225-240.  As much as I like Clement, Ajayi is better.  Once he learned the Eagles system, his use was at a 14 carry a game pace.  I think he could get 15 carries a game under Pederson.   

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Disagree here.  Unless Ajayi gets hurt he'll have well over 200 carries.  I'd say anywhere from 225-240.  As much as I like Clement, Ajayi is better.  Once he learned the Eagles system, his use was at a 14 carry a game pace.  I think he could get 15 carries a game under Pederson.   

Love Ajayi this year at his ADP.

 

[DocHolliday]

Love Ajayi this year at his ADP.

Disagree here.  Unless Ajayi gets hurt he'll have well over 200 carries.  I'd say anywhere from 225-240.  As much as I like Clement, Ajayi is better.  Once he learned the Eagles system, his use was at a 14 carry a game pace.  I think he could get 15 carries a game under Pederson.   

Ajayi is going to have a solid year.  Clement is going to take away some touches but Ajayi should be the main back.   

 

[pantherclub]

Multiple people saying McCoy as an absolute don't draft are cra-cray. The likelihood of him getting suspended this season are dropping with each passing day (if he gets suspended at all).

You sure about that chief?

 

[Soaring Eagle]

1.  J. McKinnon - ADP #21 Overall - my most overvalued player of 2018

2.  M. Gordon - ADP #9 Overall - I just don't trust his talent or his durability...so many other solid players at this ADP

3.  Kenyan Drake - ADP 4.06 - Don't trust his durability and Gore is going to eat into his early down touches

4.  Allen Robinson - ADP 4.10 - A ton of better WR value at this ADP

5.  Julian Edelman - ADP 6.6 - Old, misses games to injury, and is suspended

great list

 

[Chaka]

Just when I thought you guys were swaying my feeling about Alshon Jeffrey.

 

[Coots]

I'm with you on Kamara, that doesn't mean that I don't think he's a nice player or whatever. But like you said, is this guy really going to be able to produce with that kind of efficiency again? I say no way and will gladly take Gordon, Fournette and Hunt over him, which will likely mean I will have zero shares of Kamara come week 1. 

JuJu's price seems awfully high to me, at his current ADP there are several #1 WR available who should all see more targets than JuJu. Lots of mouths to feed in Pitsburgh, especially if Washington emerges and demands a few extra looks a game. 

Man I hope I'm in a lot of leagues with you this year......

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

In the past 25 years, there have been 276 times that a RB has had 300 or more touches . . . 273 of them scored 200 points in 0 PPR leagues, and the 3 that didn't scored 198. Last year, 198 points would have ranked 8th. McCoy's ADP in expert leagues is RB23. His overall ADP in expert leagues is 57th overall. McCoy is a gift at the end of the 5th round.

Well, sure, of course he would be ... if there was any prayer of drafting him there.

I'm genuinely curious what "expert leagues" you're referring to. FFPC ADP is usually pretty reliable due to the $$$ owners put up to play there, more so than the Fantasypros consensus ADP (which is 27), but even at FFPC he's 34.5 - a late 3rd-rounder. That's more in line with what I've seen at MFL and elsewhere, and IMO represents a fair risk-reward balance for Shady based on the information we have today.

 

[Anarchy99]

Well, sure, of course he would be ... if there was any prayer of drafting him there.

I'm genuinely curious what "expert leagues" you're referring to. FFPC ADP is usually pretty reliable due to the $$$ owners put up to play there, more so than the Fantasypros consensus ADP (which is 27), but even at FFPC he's 34.5 - a late 3rd-rounder. That's more in line with what I've seen at MFL and elsewhere, and IMO represents a fair risk-reward balance for Shady based on the information we have today.

I was going by what FBG listed as ADP for expert leagues, which probably contained info from drafts right after his off field issues first broke. Using MFL ADP info from the past 2 weeks, his ADP is 40, which is a little behind what you listed. Either way, I would be a buyer at that price for McCoy as I am not all that concerned about his age, the off field stuff, or his team's bleak offensive outlook.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

Derek Carr- week 15 he was scrambling and dove for the end zone late in a Sunday night game. He fumbles into the end zone, so I lost 2 pts for the lost fumble which  brought me from a win to a tie, and lost the tiebreaker, and a shot at the championship (which I would have won handily.) Never again Derek Carr!

just getting started on this thread, but this hit home. waaaaaaay too soon to hear this. same scenario, and based on the final scoring it looks like i would have won the championship match by a landslide. i'm pretty sure his brother screwed me at some point too before leaving houston. the carr family is dead to me.

 

[Crazysight]

I wouldnt touch Davante Adams in dynasty at the price he’ll command after the 2 concussions last year.  Another could be game over.

 

[shadrap]

In two PPR leagues this year and I draft #2 and #3 respectively.

1. McKinnon -- Would be an option at the 2/3 turn for me. Nope. Feel like that price is way too high. Brieda is going to get a lot of work. And have this funny feeling that the SF love is a bit inflated.

2. M. Evans -- Too many weeks he goes poof. Winston out first 4 weeks. Don't like him at the 2/3 turn at all.

3. A. Cooper -- Had him last year. Ooof. Not convinced he's just not that good. Also have a gut feel that Oakland is just going to be an all around trainwreck.

4. R. Wilson -- Have ridden Wilson the last couple of years and I'm getting off the train this year. Price is still high and that O-line is terrible and weapons have gone bye bye. I know a lot of people think a lousier defense will help Wilson, but I'm not so sure. Seattle just seems like they will be worse all around.

5. M. Lynch -- See A. Cooper above. Old. Flakey. Not touching anything Oakland this year.

I didn't have Lynch or Cooper last year & kind of like them this year.   After reading your post I'm going to pretend I had them last year & avoid.  nothing like getting burned two years in a row.

 

[deacon14]

Tricky call and I will try to stick with earlier draft picks.

Mixon - If I pick any Bengals, it would be Bernard several rounds later

Baldwin - Definitely nowhere near 100% and seems like an easy game plan to prevent targetrs

McKinnon - Just can't see him being productive on a bad team.  Role player on a good team....maybe?!?

Drake - Marginal RB at best. Will be filling other positions around his ADP.

(and I know I will catch some flack) Barkley - currently have at least 13 players rated higher

 

[sooted72]

(and I know I will catch some flack) Barkley - currently have at least 13 players rated higher

this is pretty reasonable imo.  theres a difference between 'will never ever draft' which would be pretty dumb to say about barkley and 'wont ever get bc i wont pay his adp'.  thats two totally different things.

for example i wont own ertz this year bc hes going like 4 rounds before id actually want to draft him :/

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Some of this is ADP related, some is personal preference. They’re just opinions - take em for what they’re worth (not much) 

1. Josh Gordon - the red flags are there. It sounds like he’s missing preseason for the right reasons (according to the follls explaining , but the fact remains that he’s still struggling with whatever he’s striggling with. And he’s on a zero tolerance return, so any infraction & he’s gone. The fact that he’s a late 3rd to mid 4th ADP, he’ll never be anywhere near my teams.

2. Hopkins at his current ADP feels like a bust. I know - I know. This is a gut feeling only. Apologies to Hopkins owners & would-be owner’s. He may well make me eat these words, but there seem to be so many more reliable options between the 6th & 10th picks. Hopkins may well repeat 2017. I’d be shocked though. The Texans don’t want to air it out like they had to when their defense took a bunch of hits. They also want to run a lot more than they were able to last year. Hopkins feels more like a WR2 with WR1 upside than the lock-it-up WR1 he’s being drafted as. I see ODB with near identical ADP and would take Beckham 100/100 times between them.

3. Landry seems highly unlikely to be the PPR catch monster he was the last couple years. Maybe he’ll change his game & surprise me, but for the price I’m avoiding him. I think CLE is in foR huge improvement - I also think they have a lot of questions and not enough targets to go around for Landry to have the production we’ve been used to. 

4. Brandin Cooks. I think he’ll be a much better signing for the rams than for FFB owners.  That’s the Todd Gurley show, and they don’t throw downfield all that much. Rams have a nice receiving corps but with that defense & Gurley, I cant envision a scenario where Cooks delivers on his ADP. 

5. A tie between Ajayi and Drake. Both of these RBs willl be incredibly frustrating to own, IMO. With Ajayi, that’s a crowded backfield & the Eagles love to spread it around. Even without Jeffery (if he misses time) I expect Ajayi to be hit & miss all year. As for Kenyan Drake. I was high on him - until they brought in a couple other backs. They didn’t bring in Gore to wash the jockstraps, and Ballage is a receiving specialist. I’m weary of the RBBC drafting him as a RB2 or (gulp) RB1 if going WR-WR-RB.  I’d probably rather have a LMiller or Collins. Miller probably safer, as he’s guaranteed touches & has less competitor, while with Collins I think what he showed last year will make it his job to lose. Ravens love Dixon & Buck Allen, but IMO Collins keeps the job and puts up big #s. But I’d prefer either over Drake & Ajayi. 

Never say never though - weird things happen in a draft. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

this is pretty reasonable imo.  theres a difference between 'will never ever draft' which would be pretty dumb to say about barkley and 'wont ever get bc i wont pay his adp'.  thats two totally different things.

for example i wont own ertz this year bc hes going like 4 rounds before id actually want to draft him :/

I don’t separate the two. My DND list has players on it for a variety of reasons. 

 

[sooted72]

I don’t separate the two. My DND list has players on it for a variety of reasons. 

lol k