Your guys to grab and avoid in 2013 (1 Viewer)

[Run It Up]

Avoid:

RB: CJ Spiller

I would be interested to hear the logic behind this one. Everything I've seen indicates he will see the ball way more, whether it be on 3rd downs, short yardage, goal line, catching passes, etc. and Jackson will see a greatly reduced role. How does that make Spiller a guy to avoid?

Yeah... what? As far as I'm concerned Spiller is more or less a lock for Top 5 if he stays healthy. Hell I hope guys in my league feel the same way. I'd love to pair Spiller with Charles LOL

Because I don't think he can handle the load, if he somehow goes the entire season without reinjury, he will begin to lose carries to FJax who I'm not convinced isn't already gonna get 30-40% of them. Preemptive, yes and blah blah blah about the coaching staff talking about feeding Spiller, I'm aware, I just don't believe it will pan out that way, so I will abstain from taking him at what I think is an outrageous place. I think he has a good shot at finishing top 10 even if he doesn't get injured but still loses carries, I just don't think hes a top 5 pick, which where I've been seeing him go.

So the guy that got the smallest workload of the top backs is the one most likely to get hurt? You answered my question, so I guess I can't expect more for an answer.

Spiller is going in the 7-12 range overall. He ranked as the #7 RB last year on roughly 200 carries. Unless you think he is going to see a smaller workload or will have a serious injury, I don't see many scenarios where he doesn't al least do as well as he did last year.

If you wanted me to just agree with you you could have saved a lot of time and just not asked me for my opinion.

And according to pretty much everything I've seen, Spiller is inside the top 5RBs, whether you think that puts them in the top 5 I guess is up to you, but I've yet to draft or mock where the first 20 or so picks weren't 18 RBs and Megatron/Green.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft?

It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

 

[Toad_1234]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft?

It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

 

[Warrior]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft?

It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

Likely looking at Megatron + Chris Johnson vs Doug Martin + Julio Jones or something along those lines.

Seems pretty comparable.

 

[Toad_1234]

Chris Johnson is going top 20 (and top 15 in some cases) in most of the mocks I have done. I would say Calvin + Gore, Ridley, or MJD are more probable which is something I would never roll with but to each his own.

 

[Grahamburn]

Calvin has the potential to annihilate whoever finishes WR2 and/or finish as the #1 overall non-QB in points.

 

[Leonidas]

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

Your question assumes that you accurately predict who RB2 will be.

What RB are you so confident in finishing at RB2?

Your question also assumes that the 18th RB off the board will finish at RB18. If that guy is, say, Chris Johnson, I'm not so sure he doesn't finish as an RB1.

Of all the assumptions to make (risks to take), I'm quite confident that assuming Calvin Johnson will be the clear #1 WR is the safest, by far.

 

[Toad_1234]

Of all the assumptions to make (risks to take), I'm quite confident that assuming Calvin Johnson will be the clear #1 WR is the safest, by far.

Not disputing that. I'm worried about total points. I'd take Martin or Charles over Foster this year.

 

[Leonidas]

Of all the assumptions to make (risks to take), I'm quite confident that assuming Calvin Johnson will be the clear #1 WR is the safest, by far.

Not disputing that. I'm worried about total points. I'd take Martin or Charles over Foster this year.

How confident are you that Martin and Charles will be RB2 and RB3? That they will be top 5? Compared to the confidence that Calvin will be the clear #1 WR.

 

[LususV]

Of all the assumptions to make (risks to take), I'm quite confident that assuming Calvin Johnson will be the clear #1 WR is the safest, by far.

Not disputing that. I'm worried about total points. I'd take Martin or Charles over Foster this year.

How confident are you that Martin and Charles will be RB2 and RB3? That they will be top 5? Compared to the confidence that Calvin will be the clear #1 WR.

I'm quite confident that if you take Calvin at #2,your RB squad will be significantly below average. If you take Martin or Charles, I think you can be above average at RB and WR.

 

[Leonidas]

I can't help but notice how you avoid answering all of these very relevant questions.

 

[LususV]

I can't help but notice how you avoid answering all of these very relevant questions.

One a phone on an airplane, so limited access to data at the moment, but I think your questions are less relevant than you think. 'Certainty of #1 at position' is why Graham, Rodgers, and Brees will be consistently over drafted. I love Calvin, but I can't pass on a sure top-8 RB for him. 9th pick at the earliest, IMO.

 

[Leonidas]

I can't help but notice how you avoid answering all of these very relevant questions.

One a phone on an airplane, so limited access to data at the moment, but I think your questions are less relevant than you think. 'Certainty of #1 at position' is why Graham, Rodgers, and Brees will be consistently over drafted. I love Calvin, but I can't pass on a sure top-8 RB for him. 9th pick at the earliest, IMO.

What I see as the difference maker here, and why taking Calvin so high is, at the very least, not as silly as any other non-RB, is the chance/odds that Calvin significantly leads all other WR's virtually in a group all his own, scoring on par with RB1's. You listed multiple QB's as 'Certainty of #1 at position', which should clearly indicate that picking the #1 QB is much more difficult than pegging Calvin as #1 WR. I would even add Manning to that, and say you have a group of 3 QB's at the top of the position. AND, if you wanted, you could get one of those '#1 at position' QB's in the 3rd round, likely. Maybe even the 4th. However, I'll wager that you can't get a top 5 WR even if you use the second round pick (2.11).

I know you are simply saying that #1 at position guys may be over drafted as people reach for them, and that may be true.

Maybe pick 2 is too high. I went and read Waldman's strategy article on upside down drafting, and even within that article he says:

"Because the Upside Down strategy is rooted in the idea of fishing in talent pools at the right time, I think the risk-reward scenario of taking a first-round running back is worthwhile in the bounds of this framework if you have one of the top 3-5 picks in a draft. The stats might say it's unlikely to pick one of last year's elite backs and count on a repeat performance, I believe the reason has a lot to do with injury and I don't like using injury as a variable.

If you have a shot at Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, or LeSean McCoy, the smart play is to take them and hope they stay healthy enough to give you top-12 RB production. Health is the only reasonable question for these players because the track record of production and age are all pointing to them having strong seasons in 2013.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=waldmangutcheckupsidedown13

I'm sure we all have our own list of 5 RB's we would put there (surely all would include AP), but maybe if the guy writing about upside says pick 3-5 is too early to do it...it's just too early.

I don't know. I get tempted by the mocks where I get two of S. Jackson, F. Gore, and Chris Johnson at the turn, after Calvin.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

Aaron Hernandez

 

[TheDirtyWord]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft?

It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

The question is obviously easier to answer in hindsight than in foresight. But the other contributing factor to my increased comfort level with considering Megatron at 1.02 would be this. There are alot of RB1/RB2 wild-cards I think this year where you can place some bets. So predicting who finishes at RB2 & RB18 is much different than going back and checking who did. Doug Martin finished as RB2 last year...was a 3rd round choice in FF last year.

Chris Ivory

David Wilson

Lamar Miller

Rashard Mendenhall

Leveon Bell

Eddie Lacy

Montee Ball

Do all of these guys possess the same chance to finish high up in the RB scoring ranks in 2013? No, but I would bet that at least 2-3 will finish with a Top 12-15 ranking. More and more, it feels like after the elite RB's, workload is the determining factor to success. All of these guys have a very good shot of eclipsing 250-275 touches. Whoever does will wind up fairly high on the positional rankings at the end of the season. I have more confidence in predicting he'll finish as WR1 versus trying to predict who'd finish RB2. If I have the 2nd pick in the draft, I pick an RB and he finishes as RB5 or RB6, which is still very good for the positon...well, the gap between RB5/6 and RB18...that's not nearly as big. And the unpredicability at the RB position can have rankings of Top 5-10 players drafted finish much lower than RB5/6. See below for FFC's final RB draft rankings from 2012.

Arian Foster

Ray Rice

Lesean McCoy

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Matt Forte

DeMarco Murray

MJD

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Fred Jackson

But what Megatron has shown over 2 years time is that he is by far and away the best fantasy producer at his position. And quite frankly from a FF perspective, last year was an off-year despite his record setting yardage totals. That's why I'm considering taking the bet with Megatron.

 

[LususV]

I can't help but notice how you avoid answering all of these very relevant questions.

One a phone on an airplane, so limited access to data at the moment, but I think your questions are less relevant than you think. 'Certainty of #1 at position' is why Graham, Rodgers, and Brees will be consistently over drafted. I love Calvin, but I can't pass on a sure top-8 RB for him. 9th pick at the earliest, IMO.

What I see as the difference maker here, and why taking Calvin so high is, at the very least, not as silly as any other non-RB, is the chance/odds that Calvin significantly leads all other WR's virtually in a group all his own, scoring on par with RB1's. You listed multiple QB's as 'Certainty of #1 at position', which should clearly indicate that picking the #1 QB is much more difficult than pegging Calvin as #1 WR. I would even add Manning to that, and say you have a group of 3 QB's at the top of the position. AND, if you wanted, you could get one of those '#1 at position' QB's in the 3rd round, likely. Maybe even the 4th. However, I'll wager that you can't get a top 5 WR even if you use the second round pick (2.11). I know you are simply saying that #1 at position guys may be over drafted as people reach for them, and that may be true.

Maybe pick 2 is too high. I went and read Waldman's strategy article on upside down drafting, and even within that article he says:

"Because the Upside Down strategy is rooted in the idea of fishing in talent pools at the right time, I think the risk-reward scenario of taking a first-round running back is worthwhile in the bounds of this framework if you have one of the top 3-5 picks in a draft. The stats might say it's unlikely to pick one of last year's elite backs and count on a repeat performance, I believe the reason has a lot to do with injury and I don't like using injury as a variable.

If you have a shot at Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, or LeSean McCoy, the smart play is to take them and hope they stay healthy enough to give you top-12 RB production. Health is the only reasonable question for these players because the track record of production and age are all pointing to them having strong seasons in 2013.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=waldmangutcheckupsidedown13

I'm sure we all have our own list of 5 RB's we would put there (surely all would include AP), but maybe if the guy writing about upside says pick 3-5 is too early to do it...it's just too early.

I don't know. I get tempted by the mocks where I get two of S. Jackson, F. Gore, and Chris Johnson at the turn, after Calvin.

See, I have SJax, Gore, and Chris Johnson on my 'avoid unless they slip' list, so we may be at a philosophical gap.

Again, I love Calvin, and can't give any reason for him to be anything but #1 WR again, but I believe that the drop from, say, Charles to Gore will be potentially significantly greater than the gap from, say, Calvin to, just as an example, VJax. Based purely on a value play, I can't justify him before the stud RB's.

My top RB list, which I'm sure is not subscribed to by everyone:

Martin, AP, Charles, Spiller, Foster, McCoy, Lynch, Richardson, Morris, Rice, Forte. Then, and only then, do I go WR/WR (Calvin/Dez/Green/Fitzgerald /Julio is my order) and hope for a 3rd/4th of, say, two out of DWilson/DMC/Miller/Bell/Ball (in descending order of how I like them.

 

[Leonidas]

See, I have SJax, Gore, and Chris Johnson on my 'avoid unless they slip' list, so we may be at a philosophical gap.

Again, I love Calvin, and can't give any reason for him to be anything but #1 WR again, but I believe that the drop from, say, Charles to Gore will be potentially significantly greater than the gap from, say, Calvin to, just as an example, VJax. Based purely on a value play, I can't justify him before the stud RB's.

My top RB list, which I'm sure is not subscribed to by everyone:

Martin, AP, Charles, Spiller, Foster, McCoy, Lynch, Richardson, Morris, Rice, Forte. Then, and only then, do I go WR/WR (Calvin/Dez/Green/Fitzgerald /Julio is my order) and hope for a 3rd/4th of, say, two out of DWilson/DMC/Miller/Bell/Ball (in descending order of how I like them.

Let's do a little hypothetical projection math using unbias numbers. I just checked the FBG current projections, and averaging the four (dodds, henry, wood, tremblay) gives this: Martin, 246.6. Calvin, 230. Charles, 226. VJax, 177.5. Chris Johnson, 192

Martin + V. Jackson= 424.1

Calvin + Chris Johnson = 422

This seems to be a fairly decent comparison. If you take Martin 1.02 and he does as well as everybody hopes, and finishes RB2, pairing him with Vincent Jackson only hypothetically comes out 2 points above the option with Calvin at 1.02.

Maybe you can get a better WR at 2.11 than V. Jackson, but I don't know how much better, the top 5 are always taken by then (Calvin, AJ, Dez, Marshall, Julio) and very frequently D.Thomas and maybe one other are also gone.

Given the fact that it seems a near-consensus that betting on Calvin to be #1 WR is safer than betting on any RB to make #1/#2, this is seeming more and more like a very reasonable strategy

And I'm pretty sure part of why we aren't seeing eye to eye is where we stand on those RB's. Given CJ?K's interior O-line upgrades I'm willing to bet he performs at least as well as a late second/early third round pick, and I see a very high ceiling on him...also I would be willing to take Steven Jackson or Frank Gore there as well, I think they have a pretty high floor.

 

[Toad_1234]

See, I have SJax, Gore, and Chris Johnson on my 'avoid unless they slip' list, so we may be at a philosophical gap.

Again, I love Calvin, and can't give any reason for him to be anything but #1 WR again, but I believe that the drop from, say, Charles to Gore will be potentially significantly greater than the gap from, say, Calvin to, just as an example, VJax. Based purely on a value play, I can't justify him before the stud RB's.

My top RB list, which I'm sure is not subscribed to by everyone:

Martin, AP, Charles, Spiller, Foster, McCoy, Lynch, Richardson, Morris, Rice, Forte. Then, and only then, do I go WR/WR (Calvin/Dez/Green/Fitzgerald /Julio is my order) and hope for a 3rd/4th of, say, two out of DWilson/DMC/Miller/Bell/Ball (in descending order of how I like them.

Let's do a little hypothetical projection math using unbias numbers. I just checked the FBG current projections, and averaging the four (dodds, henry, wood, tremblay) gives this: Martin, 246.6. Calvin, 230. Charles, 226. VJax, 177.5. Chris Johnson, 192

Martin + V. Jackson= 424.1

Calvin + Chris Johnson = 422

This seems to be a fairly decent comparison. If you take Martin 1.02 and he does as well as everybody hopes, and finishes RB2, pairing him with Vincent Jackson only hypothetically comes out 2 points above the option with Calvin at 1.02.

Maybe you can get a better WR at 2.11 than V. Jackson, but I don't know how much better, the top 5 are always taken by then (Calvin, AJ, Dez, Marshall, Julio) and very frequently D.Thomas and maybe one other are also gone.

Given the fact that it seems a near-consensus that betting on Calvin to be #1 WR is safer than betting on any RB to make #1/#2, this is seeming more and more like a very reasonable strategy

And I'm pretty sure part of why we aren't seeing eye to eye is where we stand on those RB's. Given CJ?K's interior O-line upgrades I'm willing to bet he performs at least as well as a late second/early third round pick, and I see a very high ceiling on him...also I would be willing to take Steven Jackson or Frank Gore there as well, I think they have a pretty high floor.

Then you take Calvin at #2 and let us know how you did when the season is over.

 

[Instinctive]

Then you take Calvin at #2 and let us know how you did when the season is over.

I think that lost in this is that it isn't going to matter who you take at #2 unless one of them gets catastrophically injured.

Whoever wins is the person who picks breakout stars from round 5/6 on. Calvin is a great pick early because RBs get injured far more often than wideouts - meaning it is more likely your RB gets injured AND more likely you'll find breakout stars at RB later in the draft (backups with talent) and on the waiver wire.

 

[ScottNorwood]

Then you take Calvin at #2 and let us know how you did when the season is over.

I think that lost in this is that it isn't going to matter who you take at #2 unless one of them gets catastrophically injured.

Whoever wins is the person who picks breakout stars from round 5/6 on. Calvin is a great pick early because RBs get injured far more often than wideouts - meaning it is more likely your RB gets injured AND more likely you'll find breakout stars at RB later in the draft (backups with talent) and on the waiver wire.

 

[Dragon1952]

He was mentioned once before but I really like Danario Alexander as a WR you can get in the 7th-8th round with possible low WR1 upside (if he stays healthy). In weeks' 10-17 he was WR9 at 16.9 ppg in PPR (WR8 in total pts) and that included a 0 in Week 15.

 

[joey]

I'd just like to say that the back and forth in this thread has been some of the most civil disagreement I've seen in the SP in a while.

Nice :thumbsup:

 

[bengalbuck]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

The question is obviously easier to answer in hindsight than in foresight. But the other contributing factor to my increased comfort level with considering Megatron at 1.02 would be this. There are alot of RB1/RB2 wild-cards I think this year where you can place some bets. So predicting who finishes at RB2 & RB18 is much different than going back and checking who did. Doug Martin finished as RB2 last year...was a 3rd round choice in FF last year.

Chris Ivory

David Wilson

Lamar Miller

Rashard Mendenhall

Leveon Bell

Eddie Lacy

Montee Ball

Do all of these guys possess the same chance to finish high up in the RB scoring ranks in 2013? No, but I would bet that at least 2-3 will finish with a Top 12-15 ranking. More and more, it feels like after the elite RB's, workload is the determining factor to success. All of these guys have a very good shot of eclipsing 250-275 touches. Whoever does will wind up fairly high on the positional rankings at the end of the season. I have more confidence in predicting he'll finish as WR1 versus trying to predict who'd finish RB2. If I have the 2nd pick in the draft, I pick an RB and he finishes as RB5 or RB6, which is still very good for the positon...well, the gap between RB5/6 and RB18...that's not nearly as big. And the unpredicability at the RB position can have rankings of Top 5-10 players drafted finish much lower than RB5/6. See below for FFC's final RB draft rankings from 2012.

Arian Foster

Ray Rice

Lesean McCoy

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Matt Forte

DeMarco Murray

MJD

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Fred Jackson

But what Megatron has shown over 2 years time is that he is by far and away the best fantasy producer at his position. And quite frankly from a FF perspective, last year was an off-year despite his record setting yardage totals. That's why I'm considering taking the bet with Megatron.

Good post, but I think some of what you are saying actually validates the argument for RB early. For example, you say that outside of the top stud RBs, workload is what determines success. That is true. And outside of the top of the draft guys that workload is really tough to predict. Will AZ run the ball enough for Mendy to get 300 touches? Will they throw totes RB? Can he hold off the young guys? You could put together a similar list of questions about the other RBs on your list. If you end up needing to hit on one or more of those types of RBs, there is a good chance you strike out.

On the other hand, if you ares strong at RB and your task is hitting on a couple WRs in the late 3rd-6th round range, the job is much, much easier. Andre Johnson, Roddy White, VJax, Dwayne Bowe, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne, etc. all have an ADP of 3.09 or lower. Like Calvin, you have a pretty good idea what you are going to get from those WRs.

Basically, you are going to be pretty safe whenever you draft your WR1 or WR2 type guys.

I think there is a strong argument to be made that in discussing "safety" you can't simply do it on the basis of one pick (i.e. Calvin vs. J. Charles). If you did that, you would take WR and QB with every single draft pick. Calvin is safer than the top RBs in round 1. I will admit that. But Marshall and Julio are safer than the 2nd and 3rd tier RBs in round 2. Andre, Roddy and Cruz are safer than the rookie RBs late 3 early-4. Amendola and Nicks are safer than possible RBBC guys like Bradshaw and Lacy in the 5th, And on and on and on. Unless you want an entire team of WRs, you are going to have to take a little added risk on a RB at some point....

 

[pizzatyme]

As 3-down RBs continue to diminish, I think it opens the door for more WRs to hit the board earlier.

Another thing I like about the FFPC/FPC, is the 1.5 PPR for TEs coupled with the dual-flex.

This then brings guys like Graham and Witten into the top 24 pick discussion.

With that said, here are my targets:

Charles/Megatron/Spiller/Bush/Olsen/TY Hilton

Avoids: McCoy/Bowe/DWilson

 

[donkshow]

It depends on the scoring, IMO.

If it's standard: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE

or flex: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLX

I read a good article on standard scoring that because there are so many WR in play every week, that if your RB2 is your weakest starting position, you're likely in good shape.

I don't necessarily agree with that, but I understand it. If you're starting Calvin, Harvin, Bowe along with say, MJD and Mathews/Ivory ... I like that better than say, Martin, Ridley, White, Nicks, Bowe.

That's using consensus ADP on FBG.

 

[Leonidas]

Good post, but I think some of what you are saying actually validates the argument for RB early. For example, you say that outside of the top stud RBs, workload is what determines success. That is true. And outside of the top of the draft guys that workload is really tough to predict. Will AZ run the ball enough for Mendy to get 300 touches? Will they throw totes RB? Can he hold off the young guys? You could put together a similar list of questions about the other RBs on your list. If you end up needing to hit on one or more of those types of RBs, there is a good chance you strike out.On the other hand, if you ares strong at RB and your task is hitting on a couple WRs in the late 3rd-6th round range, the job is much, much easier. Andre Johnson, Roddy White, VJax, Dwayne Bowe, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne, etc. all have an ADP of 3.09 or lower. Like Calvin, you have a pretty good idea what you are going to get from those WRs.

Basically, you are going to be pretty safe whenever you draft your WR1 or WR2 type guys.

I think there is a strong argument to be made that in discussing "safety" you can't simply do it on the basis of one pick (i.e. Calvin vs. J. Charles). If you did that, you would take WR and QB with every single draft pick. Calvin is safer than the top RBs in round 1. I will admit that. But Marshall and Julio are safer than the 2nd and 3rd tier RBs in round 2. Andre, Roddy and Cruz are safer than the rookie RBs late 3 early-4. Amendola and Nicks are safer than possible RBBC guys like Bradshaw and Lacy in the 5th, And on and on and on. Unless you want an entire team of WRs, you are going to have to take a little added risk on a RB at some point....

That's a good point. I think you are correct, I think taking Calvin second is less risky than taking a RB, but that risk is merely being pushed down to later rounds. Perhaps the risk lies simply with drafting RB's, due to their tendancy of being injured plus, for many of them, unknown workloads/opportunity.

I have long believed the old saying that 'you can't win your league in the first two rounds, but you can lose it', which is probably why I was so intrigued to read about taking Calvin above everybody other than Peterson. I don't believe the second overall pick is the place to take any risk that you can avoid. However, given that the risk in drafting RB's is still there, and even though the consensus says taking more risk as the rounds goes on is acceptable/the-smart-play, that risk increases with each round as the available options generally go down in quality.

And it does seem pretty clear that, especially in the first third of the draft, say rounds 1-5, the risk associated with drafting RB's increases, by the pick/round, more rapidly than the same risk with a WR. Perhaps adding the risk associated with RB's (injury, workload unknowns) + the risks associated with later round picks (due to scarcity) + the relative scarcity of RB's, especially this year (seemingly) = taking starting RB's later really is just too riskly

Still...I might just try Calvin with the 1.02 and/or 1.04 this year, on a personal note. I like to zig when others are zagging, as the author I referenced above wrote at some point. Plus I've been burned on too many first round RB's in the past (but then I've never drafted any non RB in the first round, ever, so if I got burned in the first, it was necessarily going to be on a RB)

 

[pizzatyme]

I think it really depends on how confident you are in you drafting ability. If you're confident you can draft well, I believe there is no issue with taking Calvin @1.02.

That helps in ways mentioned above:

He is in a tier by himself

The RB options are all good but a crapshoot to finish 2nd-10th overall

Minimal injury risk

I'll take 2 strong RB2s with Calvin at the next turn and take my chances in most league types.

 

[pizzatyme]

I think if you're truly looking to buy Calvin at 1.02, you should first exhaust any efforts to trade down. My guess is he's still there at 1.05 if not later.

That makes sense if your league has trades. I'd guess most here don't play in those type of leagues, but I could be wrong. This bring me back to what I was thinking yesterday, IMO it is important to know what kind of leagues and possibly what kind of entry fees the posters play in.

 

[Coin Flip]

Player I want Tannehill

Player I dont Stewart

 

[TheDirtyWord]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

Yes...to expound a little further. Over the last two seasons, Megatron is 2nd in the NFL in YFS and 9th in TD's This includes all players. So in drafting Megatron, from a production stadndpoint, he's a top 5 player.

From a TD perspective, Megatron is off the leader in TD's by WR by 1 (Jordy Nelson). But from a YFS perspective, Megatron has 679 more YFS yards than any other WR (Wes Welker) who won't be coming close to previous yardage totals.

Last year I drafted Foster first...he did fine...finished Top 5. Perhaps his reduced role in the passing game was predictable...perhaps not. But RB's fluctuate...even at the Top. So aside from Peterson who I grant goes #1, who does everyone feel very good about finishing #2? And if thyey do finish #2, do they finish in that spot by .5 points, 5 points or 50 points? Probably closer to the former.

Megatron? In standard scoring leagues, he's beaten the #2 WR over that time (again, Welker) by an average of 52.95 points/season. That's my reasoning.

Okay. So you are in a 12 team league. You're up 52.95 points at Wide Receiver. You have picks 2, 23, 26, 47, and 49. Your second pick at 23 will probably be RB 18. What are you projecting the dropoff to be from RB2 to RB18? I would imagine more than 52 points unless it is a PPR league.

The question is obviously easier to answer in hindsight than in foresight. But the other contributing factor to my increased comfort level with considering Megatron at 1.02 would be this. There are alot of RB1/RB2 wild-cards I think this year where you can place some bets. So predicting who finishes at RB2 & RB18 is much different than going back and checking who did. Doug Martin finished as RB2 last year...was a 3rd round choice in FF last year.

Chris Ivory

David Wilson

Lamar Miller

Rashard Mendenhall

Leveon Bell

Eddie Lacy

Montee Ball

Do all of these guys possess the same chance to finish high up in the RB scoring ranks in 2013? No, but I would bet that at least 2-3 will finish with a Top 12-15 ranking. More and more, it feels like after the elite RB's, workload is the determining factor to success. All of these guys have a very good shot of eclipsing 250-275 touches. Whoever does will wind up fairly high on the positional rankings at the end of the season. I have more confidence in predicting he'll finish as WR1 versus trying to predict who'd finish RB2. If I have the 2nd pick in the draft, I pick an RB and he finishes as RB5 or RB6, which is still very good for the positon...well, the gap between RB5/6 and RB18...that's not nearly as big. And the unpredicability at the RB position can have rankings of Top 5-10 players drafted finish much lower than RB5/6. See below for FFC's final RB draft rankings from 2012.

Arian Foster

Ray Rice

Lesean McCoy

Darren McFadden

Chris Johnson

Matt Forte

DeMarco Murray

MJD

Marshawn Lynch

Jamaal Charles

Adrian Peterson

Fred Jackson

But what Megatron has shown over 2 years time is that he is by far and away the best fantasy producer at his position. And quite frankly from a FF perspective, last year was an off-year despite his record setting yardage totals. That's why I'm considering taking the bet with Megatron.

Good post, but I think some of what you are saying actually validates the argument for RB early. For example, you say that outside of the top stud RBs, workload is what determines success. That is true. And outside of the top of the draft guys that workload is really tough to predict. Will AZ run the ball enough for Mendy to get 300 touches? Will they throw totes RB? Can he hold off the young guys? You could put together a similar list of questions about the other RBs on your list. If you end up needing to hit on one or more of those types of RBs, there is a good chance you strike out.

On the other hand, if you ares strong at RB and your task is hitting on a couple WRs in the late 3rd-6th round range, the job is much, much easier. Andre Johnson, Roddy White, VJax, Dwayne Bowe, Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne, etc. all have an ADP of 3.09 or lower. Like Calvin, you have a pretty good idea what you are going to get from those WRs.

Basically, you are going to be pretty safe whenever you draft your WR1 or WR2 type guys.

I think there is a strong argument to be made that in discussing "safety" you can't simply do it on the basis of one pick (i.e. Calvin vs. J. Charles). If you did that, you would take WR and QB with every single draft pick. Calvin is safer than the top RBs in round 1. I will admit that. But Marshall and Julio are safer than the 2nd and 3rd tier RBs in round 2. Andre, Roddy and Cruz are safer than the rookie RBs late 3 early-4. Amendola and Nicks are safer than possible RBBC guys like Bradshaw and Lacy in the 5th, And on and on and on. Unless you want an entire team of WRs, you are going to have to take a little added risk on a RB at some point....

I'll conclude by saying (and this has been a great dialogue), I don't think there is a right way and/or a wrong way here. Fact is, people who draft Doug Martin or Jammal Charles or whomever at 1.02 could very well find themselves very happy with the selection. This isn't necessarily an argument for or against a specific RB/player. It's more about a general wariness about what seemingly has become the unpredictable year-to-year nature of the RB position. In looking back at 2012 and seeing of the Top 12 RB's who went in the first two rounds, 5-6 underperformed dramatically...some due to underachievement...others due to injury, drafting Megatron almost feels like a perversely safe strategy. He'll get some combination of 1700-1800 YFS and 10-12 TD's...if not both. if Johnson didn't seem like such a lock for big numbers, the pick wouldn't be worth it. But as stated above, his YFS and TD's are at mid-high RB1 tier levels...

To your point, certainly at some point you have to make the RB plunge...but why not make it when the stakes aren't as large as your first round pick? Certainly the upside doesn't seem as plentiful, but there are players this year who are in the 3rd-5th rounds currently, that could ascend to 1st round territory. Why not place your bets on RB's there, where you can curb against underperformance? Someone mentioned above the common line used about 1st rounders..."you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it"...McCoy, McFadden and Murray were all 1st round RB's (you could include CJ?K in this equation given his absolute horrific start, even though he righted the ship eventually).

But otherwise...great back and forth everyone. Enjoyed the debate from all angles.

 

[Toad_1234]

there are players this year who are in the 3rd-5th rounds currently, that could ascend to 1st round territory.

Which running backs are those? WIlson and MIller? McFadden?

There's obviously more than one way to win a league. Sure, Rbs carry risk, but so do WR's. No wide receiver has finished as the overall number one receiver in back to back years in over a decade. I learned this the hard way one year when I took Calvin and Roddy White with my first 2 picks then was forced to start Legarette Blount at RB in his bust year.

 

[Toad_1234]

Not saying it isn't possible though:

2012 Online Championship Champion Profile - Henry Mutoby Tom Kessenich » Thu Jun 20, 2013 9:51 am

The key to waiting on a position in a fantasy football draft is correctly identifying and acquiring the right player(s) later on who can most closely provide you with the type of production the players you passed on earlier are likely going to generate.

One false step can lead to disaster.

One or two correct selections, however, can result in fantasy greatness.

Henry Muto avoided the former last year in the NFFC Online Championship. And as a result he enjoyed all the spoils that came with the latter.

Due in large part to the running backs he drafted outside the first five rounds of his draft, Muto conquered all comers in the event and finished the year as the 2012 Online Championship champion and the winner of the event’s $100,000 grand prize.

“The key to my season was getting a couple of late round running backs that turned into gems,” Muto said.

The biggest gem turned out drafting C.J. Spiller in the eighth round. That pick turned golden when Spiller emerged as a RB1 throughout the season.

“I also got Mikel Leshoure in the 11th round which was huge for my team as I went with only one running back in the first six rounds of my draft,” he said. “My draft day strategy was to wait on running backs and load up at the other positions. I had the seventh slot (with this team) and I decided going in that if Calvin Johnson was gone I would take Tom Brady as none of the other running backs or wide receivers thrilled me at that spot. So Calvin went at pick six so I went with Plan B and Brady.

“In the second round I went with who I thought was the best remaining player in Rob Gronkowski. I drafted my lone running back in the third then decided to go with wide receivers in Rounds 4-6. This led me to drafting a bunch of running backs in the middle rounds to try and land a RB2 which I did in Spiller.”

Due to the lack of first-round running back options holding off on that position was a popular strategy in fantasy circles last season. However, few pulled it off as successfully or were as richly rewarded for their efforts as Muto. By season’s end, he had beaten out 1,871 other teams to claim the coveted $100,000 prize.

“You never think you have a chance to win something like this against 1,872 teams and 368 playoff teams,” he said. “I had four teams make the championship round but I never even thought one of them would even crack the Top 25 and make the money.

“After Week 14 when I posted 210 and 191 points with my Top 2 teams and I was sitting in first and 15place I thought maybe just maybe this was going to be my year and that is when I knew I really had a chance to take it down. I had been telling people all year where I work and at my barber shop about this contest and playing for a $100,000 but I never dreamed I would actually have a chance. I told everyone I was in 1st place because you just never know if you will ever get that chance again and I felt like I was on top of the world that week.”

Fortunately for Muto that feeling of jubilation was not about to come to an end.

He entered the final week of the season with his top team in second place in the event, trailing Jaryd Piecuch’s first-place team by 18 points. Unfortunately, things quickly took a turn for the worse. Muto’s team dropped out of the Top 20 on the Saturday of the final weekend of action and at that point he believed his hopes of claiming the first-place prize were about to evaporate.

“I didn’t think I had any chance,” he admitted.

Muto decided to focus on the other teams he owned which were playing for championships and he became oblivious to the events within the NFFC. On Sunday evening he checked the NFFC leaderboard and was stunned to see there had been a shift in the standings.

A rather radical one.

“I saw I was in second and fifth place overall,” he said. “I was shocked and I started checking the other teams to see who they had left. I had Marshawn Lynch still left on the fifth-place team and the Seattle defense on the second-place team. The first-place team had Michael Crabtree so I knew if he scored 13.5 points or more there would be no way for my team to win the championship.”

The 49ers took on Seattle in that pivotal Week 16 matchup and San Francisco never got going in the game. As the 49ers were being trounced by Seattle, suddenly Muto’s hopes to achieve fantasy football immortality began to take shape. All he needed was for the Seahawks to keep Crabtree out of the end zone.

With 1:40 left in the game, Muto’s hopes were nearly dashed.

Colin Kaepernick was leading San Francisco down the field and he connected on an 18-yard touchdown pass for what proved to be the 49ers’ only touchdown of the game. At first, Muto feared the worst. He assumed the touchdown had gone to Crabtree, who was gobbling up receptions from Kaepernick at an amazing rate late in the season.

“For a very brief second my heart dropped as I thought it was Crabtree who scored,” Muto said. “But then he turned and I saw ‘Walker’ on his jersey and I knew it was over.”

With Delanie Walker finding the end zone and not Crabtree, victory did not only belong to the Seahawks that night. Muto was also an NFFC champion.

“It was a feeling of both relief and redemption to win the event,” he said.

Not only did Muto win the Online Championship, he had another team in the event which finished fourth overall. Two Top 5 finishes in an event with nearly 1,900 competitors. That’s the type of season fantasy legends are made of.

The 42-year-old Muto lives has been playing fantasy football since 1990 and joined the NFFC in 2009. The Geneva, Ohio resident is understandably proud of his terrific 2012 campaign but despite winning more than $100,000 in one event he did do anything outlandish with his prize winnings.

“I have invested the prize money as of now knowing next year the tax man will be coming for me,” he said. “I have thoughts about buying a new car as well at some point but that is about it.”

 

[Tanner9919]

grab

Brandon Myers - 75.2% catch rate last season for Oakland...Bennett had a 61.1% catch rate with 90 balls thrown his way, catching just 55 of those passes..my guess is that Myers catches 70-75 balls, 6-8 TDs..big improvement over Bennett and his stone hands.

Ben Tate - if the motto 'never draft a RB who has been in top 5 for three consecutive years ' holds true, Tate is the beneficiary this season.

Daryl Richardson

Kenny Britt - if ever he was going to put it all together in order to get that huge payday, it is the 2013 season,with free agency looming..

some Cleveland RB not named Trent Richardson is going to lead that team in rushing..Norv Turner has a legendary track record with the running game..finding that RB could be fantasy gold.

James Jones

Carson Palmer

Greg Olsen

J Witten

S. Ridley

Fitzgerald

D. Martin

Phil Rivers - bounce back season for him.

Avoid:

RG3 - slight frame , cant take too many hits from sacks,scrambles, etc.will always be on the injury report.

Vick

ANY Pats WR or TE...

Mike Wallace - see Santonio Holmes, NYJ..these are the ho-hum stats you can expect from this one-trick pony..overpriced,overpaid,overrated.

Greg Jennings

Denver backfield -too murky

Reggie Bush - couldn't even make it through a season in Miami without being hurt. Now he goes to play on turf indoors? not buying it..let someone else take him.

Matthew Stafford - had one great season, the rest of his his career is mired in mediocrity and injury..expect more of the same for 2013.

ANY Bears offensive player.. good luck with Trestman.

Trent Richardson - BUST alert.