Your playbook to removing Trump from the WH in 2020 (1 Viewer)

[fantasycurse42]

 - Stop discussing the Mueller probe, like today... Forget it happened - Americans have short memories, we're pretty stupid, erase it from the playbook, it's a huge win for Trump, he basically #### on the Dems. Move the #### on! 

- Stop with the super progressive bull#### - you will not win enough independent and conservative voters over to beat him.

Now, let's move on, because this is really not complicated and doesn't need to be. Trump has a base, and that base will vote for him regardless of anything - he had a total of just under 63mm votes in 2016. Let's make a few assumptions:

1) That base is what it is, however, that base most likely is not growing much. We knew who he was in 2016, nothing has changed. Of those 63mm that voted for him, the trickiest part is determining what percentage are truly his base, and how many of the remaining voted for him bc they were partisan hacks or simply hated Hillary that much. 

2) 63mm is close to his ceiling and there have to be some people in there who have had enough with this guy.

3) Hillary had just 

So, the question is very simple, who beats Trump?

The answer is also very simple, a centrist, as long as the Dems and their voters get behind it, which they obviously won't. Your super progressive candidates like Sanders have no chance, you won't be able to win anyone over nor get the turnout needed to do so. It's a shame, but the Dems will #### this up and I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with Trump for almost 6 more years, it's awful

 

[JbizzleMan]

Agree, but the Dems are dumb and are going to split their party once again with Bernie defectors sitting it out.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Agree, but the Dems are dumb and are going to split their party once again with Bernie defectors sitting it out.

They read posts like mine and think I'm the idiot, then they'll look around like a group of deer in headlights on election night 2020. Simply so infuriating!

 

[timschochet]

You are almost 100% correct, and you also forgot to mention the most important part of the equation: Pennsylvania. 

No matter how one looks at 2020, it stills come down to a simple formula: both sides need Pennsylvania to win. A progressive candidate won’t win there. That should be the end of the discussion about progressive candidates- it won’t be but it should. 

 

[[scooter]]

 - Stop discussing the Mueller probe, like today... Forget it happened - Americans have short memories, we're pretty stupid, erase it from the playbook, it's a huge win for Trump, he basically #### on the Dems. Move the #### on! 

- Stop with the super progressive bull#### - you will not win enough independent and conservative voters over to beat him.

Now, let's move on, because this is really not complicated and doesn't need to be. Trump has a base, and that base will vote for him regardless of anything - he had a total of just under 63mm votes in 2016. Let's make a few assumptions:

1) That base is what it is, however, that base most likely is not growing much. We knew who he was in 2016, nothing has changed. Of those 63mm that voted for him, the trickiest part is determining what percentage are truly his base, and how many of the remaining voted for him bc they were partisan hacks or simply hated Hillary that much. 

2) 63mm is close to his ceiling and there have to be some people in there who have had enough with this guy.

3) Hillary had just 

So, the question is very simple, who beats Trump?

The answer is also very simple, a centrist, as long as the Dems and their voters get behind it, which they obviously won't. Your super progressive candidates like Sanders have no chance, you won't be able to win anyone over nor get the turnout needed to do so. It's a shame, but the Dems will #### this up and I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with Trump for almost 6 more years, it's awful

Agreed. But with a couple caveats:

- nothing wrong with mentioning certain aspects uncovered by the Mueller probe (i.e., that the POTUS surrounds himself with criminals).

- IMO, being "centrist" is only part of the formula. The essential point that needs to be driven home is that we need a return of dignity and normalcy to the office of the Presidency. That is the playbook which helped Jimmy Carter and George W. Bush win elections despite the fact that neither of them could be described as a centrist.

 

[TobiasFunke]

 - Stop discussing the Mueller probe, like today... Forget it happened - Americans have short memories, we're pretty stupid, erase it from the playbook, it's a huge win for Trump, he basically #### on the Dems. Move the #### on! 

- Stop with the super progressive bull#### - you will not win enough independent and conservative voters over to beat him.

Now, let's move on, because this is really not complicated and doesn't need to be. Trump has a base, and that base will vote for him regardless of anything - he had a total of just under 63mm votes in 2016. Let's make a few assumptions:

1) That base is what it is, however, that base most likely is not growing much. We knew who he was in 2016, nothing has changed. Of those 63mm that voted for him, the trickiest part is determining what percentage are truly his base, and how many of the remaining voted for him bc they were partisan hacks or simply hated Hillary that much. 

2) 63mm is close to his ceiling and there have to be some people in there who have had enough with this guy.

3) Hillary had just  

So, the question is very simple, who beats Trump? 

The answer is also very simple, a centrist, as long as the Dems and their voters get behind it, which they obviously won't. Your super progressive candidates like Sanders have no chance, you won't be able to win anyone over nor get the turnout needed to do so. It's a shame, but the Dems will #### this up and I'm pretty sure we'll be dealing with Trump for almost 6 more years, it's awful 

I don't understand this sentiment. "The Dems" don't get to strategize and choose candidate, despite what the BernieBros think. They have an open primary and the voters pick the person. If the voters pick Biden, so be it. If the voters pick Sanders, so be it. Whoever it is, we all need to get behind them and fight like hell

Also, IMO nobody has any idea how electability will work. Everyone thought Clinton was more electable than Obama, that was wrong. Everyone thought a boring center-right candidate running on establishment conservatism was the best chance to defeat Obama, that was wrong. Everyone thought Trump was doomed both in the primary and the general, that was wrong.  Sometimes winning over centrists is the key, sometimes picking up newly energized voters to expand the base is the key (that's what happened in 2008 and 2016).

I say we let the excellent field of candidates run their issue-centered campaigns, like they have been, and everyone just picks the one they like the most. So far so good IMO. I think the process has been very healthy and above the board. The biggest scandals of the process so far are Warren botching the Native American testing, Klobuchar throwing stuff and the Sanders/Sirota mess, all of which are small potatoes as far as campaign scandals go.

The only thing I think we need to do to beat Trump during the primary process is pressure out candidates that have no shot after Iowa and New Hampshire. You don't want a messy, divided convention. Gotta have the candidate when they get to Milwaukee.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The essential point that needs to be driven home is that we need a return of dignity and normalcy to the office of the Presidency. 

This is key. Don't allow perfect to become the enemy of better in the search for his replacement.

 

[Apple Jack]

Mayor Pete!

 

[fantasycurse42]

I don't understand this sentiment. "The Dems" don't get to strategize and choose candidate, despite what the BernieBros think. They have an open primary and the voters pick the person. If the voters pick Biden, so be it. If the voters pick Sanders, so be it. Whoever it is, we all need to get behind them and fight like hell

Also, IMO nobody has any idea how electability will work. Everyone thought Clinton was more electable than Obama, that was wrong. Everyone thought a boring center-right candidate running on establishment conservatism was the best chance to defeat Obama, that was wrong. Everyone thought Trump was doomed both in the primary and the general, that was wrong.  Sometimes winning over centrists is the key, sometimes picking up newly energized voters to expand the base is the key (that's what happened in 2008 and 2016).

I say we let the excellent field of candidates run their issue-centered campaigns, like they have been, and everyone just picks the one they like the most. So far so good IMO. I think the process has been very healthy and above the board. The biggest scandals of the process so far are Warren botching the Native American testing, Klobuchar throwing stuff and the Sanders/Sirota mess, all of which are small potatoes as far as campaign scandals go.

The only thing I think we need to do to beat Trump during the primary process is pressure out candidates that have no shot after Iowa and New Hampshire. You don't want a messy, divided convention. Gotta have the candidate when they get to Milwaukee.

Wat to the first bold?

To the second bold, you're going to want to rethink that outside of your box and ask yourself how independents and those who used to identify as Republicans feel about these candidates. You need a centrist who can grab those people and the rest of the party is going to need to get behind them. It's a simple formula, embrace it or deal with the repercussions. 

 

[Skoo]

Yeah, best to get rid of those progressive candidates with their policies that people actually support.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Yeah, best to get rid of those progressive candidates with their policies that people actually support.

[speaks in stupid voice] you will not win enough voters over from the center and right that dislike Trump to oust him with a progressive candidate [/speaks in stupid voice]

Amazing that people can't comprehend something so simple, we'll all get to enjoy another 4 years of Trump bc of it

 

[TobiasFunke]

Wat to the first bold?

To the second bold, you're going to want to rethink that outside of your box and ask yourself how independents and those who used to identify as Republicans feel about these candidates. You need a centrist who can grab those people and the rest of the party is going to need to get behind them. It's a simple formula, embrace it or deal with the repercussions. 

In 2008 there was a very prominent belief that Clinton was the "safe" choice and that running a more progressive African-American instead reduced the chances of a Dem victory.

I don't really understand your second point, but I think the formula isn't nearly as simple as you make it out to be. You seem to be assuming that there's like 125 million people out there, 50 million of whom will vote D and 50 million of whom will vote R and the winner will be the person who wins more of the remaining 25 million. But it's not that simple. For example that's not how Trump won and it's not now Obama won. They won over some independent voters, but they also picked up the margins they needed by activating voters who hadn't voted much before- in Obama's case, young people and African-Americans, in Trump's case non-college educated white voters.

Since we don't really know which formula is the best and we can't really guide the process anyway, I say we just vote for who we like and then agree to quickly unite behind that person, whoever it may be.

 

[Skoo]

[speaks in stupid voice] you will not win enough voters over from the center and right that dislike Trump to oust him with a progressive candidate [/speaks in stupid voice]

Amazing that people can't comprehend something so simple, we'll all get to enjoy another 4 years of Trump bc of it

I don't routinely take advice on how to win from the team I'm playing against, but thanks for that riveting analysis, Einstein.

 

[fantasycurse42]

In 2008 there was a very prominent belief that Clinton was the "safe" choice and that running a more progressive African-American instead reduced the chances of a Dem victory.

I don't really understand your second point, but I think the formula isn't nearly as simple as you make it out to be. You seem to be assuming that there's like 125 million people out there, 50 million of whom will vote D and 50 million of whom will vote R and the winner will be the person who wins more of the remaining 25 million. But it's not that simple. For example that's not how Trump won and it's not now Obama won. They won over some independent voters, but they also picked up the margins they needed by activating voters who hadn't voted much before- in Obama's case, young people and African-Americans, in Trump's case non-college educated white voters.

Since we don't really know which formula is the best and we can't really guide the process anyway, I say we just vote for who we like and then agree to quickly unite behind that person, whoever it may be.

Worked out great in 2016

 

[Juxtatarot]

I see either strategy winning, frankly.  A moderate could win more swing voters but a progressive might bring more of the unreliable far left to the polls. My biggest concern is to have somebody likeable this time unlike Hillary.

 

[JbizzleMan]

Worked out great in 2016

To be fair. Clinton was a unique candidate that from day one people had a distinct opinion of her that wasn't ever going to change. 

 

[TobiasFunke]

Worked out great in 2016

2016 is not the example you think it is; in fact it goes against your argument.  Dems nominated the well-known center-left politician, GOP nominated the extremist wild card that everyone assumed would struggle to win over centrists.

 

[Mookie]

I think the Mueller report is going to re-energize voters on the Left, and create more momentum going into 2020 just like we saw in 2018.  There will be no impending indictment of Trump, and no impeachment, so it is up to voters to remove this grifter and his Congressional cronies from power.  Progressive money will start to pour in to candidates in contested elections and people will go knocking on doors - the Dems will control the House and Senate.  I want a strong progressive candidate who actually stands for something and has a vision moving forward.  I'm sick of candidates who pander to the middle and continually waffle on their policy objectives - They too are responsible for this mess we find ourselves in.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I don't routinely take advice on how to win from the team I'm playing against, but thanks for that riveting analysis, Einstein.

I didn't realize we were on opposite teams, but go ahead, put out some super progressive, lose the entire non-liberal Trump-hating base, good formula you're stringing together. 

 

[Thunderlips]

WI, MI and PA.  That's it.  Anything else is gravy.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I think the Mueller report is going to re-energize voters on the Left, and create more momentum going into 2020 just like we saw in 2018.  There will be no impending indictment of Trump, and no impeachment, so it is up to voters to remove this grifter and his Congressional cronies from power.  Progressive money will start to pour in to candidates in contested elections and people will go knocking on doors - the Dems will control the House and Senate.  I want a strong progressive candidate who actually stands for something and has a vision moving forward.  I'm sick of candidates who pander to the middle and continually waffle on their policy objectives - They too are responsible for this mess we find ourselves in.

JFC, I give up. 

We're just so dumb! Doesn't take much to realize this, just look at who our president is. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

2016 is not the example you think it is; in fact it goes against your argument.  Dems nominated the well-known center-left politician, GOP nominated the extremist wild card that everyone assumed would struggle to win over centrists.

Again, your thinking is contained to the world you surround yourself in. 

 

[Ilov80s]

WI, MI and PA.  That's it.  Anything else is gravy.

There is still time left but my feeling is Michigan will be an easy win for Democrats. They will have to try pretty hard to blow Michigan.

 

[Skoo]

I didn't realize we were on opposite teams, but go ahead, put out some super progressive, lose the entire non-liberal Trump-hating base, good formula you're stringing together. 

We put up a centrist last time and lost, so your solution to winning is putting up another centrist.

Genius.

 

[Ilov80s]

I see either strategy winning, frankly.  A moderate could win more swing voters but a progressive might bring more of the unreliable far left to the polls. My biggest concern is to have somebody likeable this time unlike Hillary.

I think different years almost have different personalities. 2016 was a year where voters were attracted to chaos with Trump and Bernie. Will 2020 be a year where we want more chaos? Will we a calming traditional antidote to the Trump years? Or will some people see Trump as the new stable normal and wish to just let him finish what he started? 

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

We need to move on from the establishment Democrats that sold us this Russian hoax and embrace the new party leaders like Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie, and AOC.   We need to have a strategy besides being anti-Trump.

 

[Ilov80s]

We put up a centrist last time and lost, so your solution to winning is putting up another centrist.

Genius.

I don't think Hillary lost because of her politics though. She lost because of her baggage (deserved or not) she was a candidate who been in the public eye for a long time and been a punching bag for the GOP for years.  Also, while there is certainly sexism that exists in National politics, Hillary isn't all that likable. I think that loss is more on Hillary than on any policies. 

 

[Skoo]

I don't think Hillary lost because of her politics though. She lost because of her baggage (deserved or not) she was a candidate who been in the public eye for a long time and been a punching bag for the GOP for years.  Also, while there is certainly sexism that exists in National politics, Hillary isn't all that likable. I think that loss is more on Hillary than on any policies. 

I agree that Hillary was damaged goods from the start, but let me ask you something:

What was Hillary's issue in 2016? What was she running on?

The reason I ask is because I have no idea. She didn't get anyone excited to go out and vote. She was the responsible choice, that's it.

 

[fantasycurse42]

We put up a centrist last time and lost, so your solution to winning is putting up another centrist.

Genius.

You come in here lobbying for a progressive and want to hurl insults about my intelligence? No reason for us to continue this back and forth. 

Good luck feeling the Bern!

 

[Skoo]

We need to move on from the establishment Democrats that sold us this Russian hoax and embrace the new party leaders like Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie, and AOC.   We need to have a strategy besides being anti-Trump.

Ding Ding Ding

There's a reason AOC is the new liberal boogeyman. And that's because people actually support progressive policies. And that's dangerous to the status quo.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I agree that Hillary was damaged goods from the start, but let me ask you something:

What was Hillary's issue in 2016? What was she running on?

The reason I ask is because I have no idea. She didn't get anyone excited to go out and vote. She was the responsible choice, that's it.

She got 63mm people excited to vote!

 

[Mookie]

JFC, I give up. 

We're just so dumb! Doesn't take much to realize this, just look at who our president is. 

Whoa - Easy there.  It's OK for people to disagree, unless your purpose in starting this thread was just to proclaim to the world that you have the only view that matters. 

Hillary was a centrist in my view.  She waffled and didn't stand for anything except what the polls said.  It's why she wasn't viewed as trustworthy and why a lot of voters stayed home.  That anger that propelled people towards voting for Trump has shifted against him IMO. 

 

[Skoo]

You come in here lobbying for a progressive and want to hurl insults about my intelligence? No reason for us to continue this back and forth. 

Good luck feeling the Bern!

Yeah, I guess I didn't appreciate you responding to me with "talks in stupid voice.."

Gotta give respect if you want to receive it.

 

[drobeski]

Why would you want to ? 

Do you hate a good economy ? Jobs ? ISIS being wiped out ? 

Mean words ?

 

[Ilov80s]

I agree that Hillary was damaged goods from the start, but let me ask you something:

What was Hillary's issue in 2016? What was she running on?

The reason I ask is because I have no idea. She didn't get anyone excited to go out and vote. She was the responsible choice, that's it.

Experience, stability, a level head. Not being Donald Trump. So in that sense I totally get what you are saying. What did Obama run on? Hope and change. That's not really a policy though. It's just a good slogan like MAGA. I think the difference was that Trump and Obama were more magnetic and more likable (at least to the people they were trying to appeal to). 

 

[fantasycurse42]

We need to move on from the establishment Democrats that sold us this Russian hoax and embrace the new party leaders like Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie, and AOC.   We need to have a strategy besides being anti-Trump.

You support the left's version of the tea party - that won't be enough to oust Trump, but carry on.

 

[toshiba]

I don't agree it is a race for the moderates.  It is a race to bring out your support. The candidate that brings out the most support of the party, wins.

 

[lod001]

Hillary lost because she was the worst candidate ever. Can't go into detail because you guys are just waiting to hit the 'report' button but it's all here: https://www.historyonthenet.com/hillary-clinton-personality

She simply thought she was above everyone else. When you treat those that protect you (the secret service) like garbage, then you have serious mental issues.

Pick someone near center or you simply lose. Pick an center left outsider and you win easily. An outsider vs Trump (an outsider) is a virtual lock.

 

[Skoo]

You support the left's version of the tea party - that won't be enough to oust Trump, but carry on.

And yet every poll had Bernie beating Trump by more than Hillary.

You can keep repeating your opinion over and over, but that's all it is. An opinion backed up by nothing.

 

[Ilov80s]

And yet every poll had Bernie beating Trump by more than Hillary.

You can keep repeating your opinion over and over, but that's all it is. An opinion backed up by nothing.

I don't think 2020 will necessarily be like 2016. I do think Bernie would have beaten Trump. Many people just wanted something different- someone who wasn't a traditional R or D. 2020 might be more ripe for a traditional "return to normalcy" candidate. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Why would you want to ? 

Do you hate a good economy ? Jobs ? ISIS being wiped out ? 

Mean words ?

Probably best to put this in another thread and keep this one focused on what Dems could/should do. 

 

[Juxtatarot]

Why would you want to ? 

Do you hate a good economy ? Jobs ? ISIS being wiped out ? 

Mean words ?

Because most people don't give credit to Trump for any of those things.  (Besides the mean words.)

 

[fantasycurse42]

Why would you want to ? 

Do you hate a good economy ? Jobs ? ISIS being wiped out ? 

Mean words ?

Economy has been good for the last decade, it's actually starting to come under pressure for the first time since the great recession, it's starting to show up in the data. 

Jobs have been on that same trajectory for about 10 years, they're currently at their peak, which signals late cycle behavior, so you need to hope it doesn't tip within the next 18 months. 

Mean words? You apparently haven't read much I've written, mean words are welcome by me. 

Our president shouldn't be an arrogant #######, one who doesn't listen to his advisors bc he thinks he is smarter than them, that lies constantly about everything, and has zero moral compass... The guy behaves like a child and his policies have benefitted the ultra wealthy - Every corporation and billionaire received a nice tax break, has the cost of your goods come down like theirs? The guy is a fiscal train wreck for our future, but he prob doesn't understand America can't simply file Chapter 11.

That's all I say about him for now. 

 

[The Commish]

How do you beat Trump?   You make the election a referendum on him and his promises.  You drive home the following:

1.  There is no wall funded by Mexico.  He now wants Americans to pay for it.

2.  The tax cuts he claimed were designed for the middle class clearly weren't, rather they went primarily to the really rich and corporations....hell you could leave the "really rich" out if you wanted.  The fact that he's choosing big business over the average American should do it.

3.  His failed policy on North Korea.  We are no safer today as NK continues to build their arsenal.  

4.  The economy is showing every indication of slowing down and a major reason why is #2.  Our trajectorygectory has been significantly altered in a short two years.

5.  His border policies of separating children from parents who are here seeking amnesty.

6 - xxxx  --> Take you pick of any of the immoral, shady #### he's done the last two years....that list could go on for days.

 

[Skoo]

I don't think 2020 will necessarily be like 2016. I do think Bernie would have beaten Trump. Many people just wanted something different- someone who wasn't a traditional R or D. 2020 might be more ripe for a traditional "return to normalcy" candidate. 

My point is simply that this "a progressive candidate can't win" idea is complete and utter BS created by Conservatives.

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

And yet every poll had Bernie beating Trump by more than Hillary.

You can keep repeating your opinion over and over, but that's all it is. An opinion backed up by nothing.

Hillary Clinton stole the election from Bernie!

 

[NCCommish]

Don't we not have enough threads based on a premise of failure? Neoliberalism, or centrist Democratic policy, is what gave us Trump. The incessant need to be just one step less conservative delivered him to your door. Crapping on workers, crapping on unions, shredding the social safety net, ever more wars, etc. Trump is the symptom corrupted neoliberalism is the disease. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

Probably best to put this in another thread and keep this one focused on what Dems could/should do. 

It isn't just Dems that dislike Trump. 

But I agree with your sentiments. I won't address it again. 

 

[NCCommish]

Here's how you win. The Democrats become Democrats again. Friend to the working class and oppressed. Enemy of the wealthy and powerful. Try it it just might work. 

 

[fantasycurse42]

And yet every poll had Bernie beating Trump by more than Hillary.

You can keep repeating your opinion over and over, but that's all it is. An opinion backed up by nothing.

I'll happily make this interesting should the Dems nominate some super progressive, we'll revisit. At least I can financially benefit from this guy being reelected.