My mantra all year has been get one rb to hang your hat on in the first two rounds and hope he stays healthy. From there don't worry about reaching for someone you don’t feel good about. Everyone is stuck in the get two rb's super early mode and I have zigged were others have zagged. If ppl are taking rb's I dont feel that good about, I will take a wr, qb, or te that is a proven stud. All of those positons have a higher (and in the case of qb and te much higher) chance to finish close to where you draft them than does a rb. They are all also less likely to get hurt.
Obviously any number of strategies are very viable, but I am posting this to give you an idea of how I am thinking this season. Everyone says how much uncertainty there is at rb this year, so why chase it? Grab one you feel really good about starting every week, and from there just get players you are very confident in.
In the leagues I play in we start 2 rb and 2 wr with one flex. I am looking to grab the players who give me the highest probability to fill those slots with the most points possible. You have to start a qb and te every week, so it would be wise to have one that isn't going to frequently give you a disadvantage. You only have to start 2 rb's, which is all I plan on starting unless one of my mid-late rounder’s emerges. If I have a couple rb's projected 25-35 (who all typically come at a very good value), I should be able to find one I can start and not lose too much production. This strategy is mostly based around ppr leagues btw (only format I really understand values in).
Lets address a few things that some people may disagree with that I feel will give you an advantage:
A tight end like Jimmy Graham in the late first or early 2nd round of a ppr is a very, very viable play. Jimmy Graham is the #1 target in a top 3 passing offense, and is also an absolute proven beast of a performer. He plays a position that you typically can only start one of and HAVE TO START every week. If I can lock in a statistical edge that (barring injury) I am almost sure to see every week, why would I not? People ask "who are the next graham and gronk this year?". The answer, more than likely, is that they don’t exist. These two are not only top 5 talents, but more importantly play in offenses and have qb's that set them up for success. Sure some te's like Rudolph, Cook, Gresham, etc. could all pleasantly surprise this year, but they simply aren't in as good of situations. I will say that while I am confident gronk will perform, I am not sure I would pay for him based on where he is going right now. So if I can't get Graham I am targeting Gates or Hernandez, who are also in very good situations to succeed this year. The way I look at Graham is this: Should I draft Demarco Murray, who has started all of 6 or so games in his NFL career and been injured consistently dating back to college over him? Be my guest if you want to.
How about not grabbing a qb at the end of the first round and deciding to draft someone like Chris Johnson (who was terrible last year and looks mediocre again this pre season)? Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are likely to throw 1k yards more than the rest of the qb's (can maybe throw Stafford in there too). They will also likely throw 10 more td's than qb's you will get later. 1k yards=50 points in most leagues and 10 td's= 40 points. That’s a 90 point difference between those guys and someone you would grab in rounds 7-10. Not only is that a lot of points, you also have a better chance to actually take advantage of those points because a qb is again much less likely to get hurt than a rb you would draft at the end of round 1. And on top of all this they are also much more likely to perform consistently (and thus give you an advantage) every single week. Outside of Rice, Foster, Mccoy, and Mcfadden (if he is able to stay healthy), I don’t think the other options at rb are going to give you that. That is to say I would not at all be surprised if a rb someone takes in rounds 6-8 out performs a rb taken in rounds 2-3 any given week.
So if I am waiting so long to draft a rb2 what kinds of players am I targeting? I am looking to add 2-3 of Peyton Hillis, Stevan Ridley, Jonathan Stewart, Deangelo Williams, Ryan Williams, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, David Wilson, Pierre Thomas, Jacquizz Rodger, Kendall Hunter. and Dexter Mccluster. If you can grab 2-3 of these players I am confident you get enough production out of that second rb slot that, coupled with the advantages you should enjoy at other positions, will give a statistical edge over your opponents from week to week. After all, fantasy football really just comes down to putting a line up on the field that gives you the best chance to score the most points. And in a passing league I want the people throwing and catching the passes.
To give an example of how I would execute this strategey in a very realistic setting ($125 12 team ppr league on rt sports) I will post a line up I was able to establish out of the two spot:
QB: Matt Ryan (5) (not completley elite but someone I feel very good about)
RB: Ray Rice (1), Peyton Hillis (7)
WR: AJ Green (2), Brandon Marshall (3)
TE: Gates (4) (obviously couldn't get Graham due to drafting so early)
Flex: Reggie Wayne (6) (High on him this year, particuarly in ppr)
Bench: Pierre Thomas, CJ Spiller, Dexter Mccluster, Mark Ingram, Jake Locker, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore.
This team was rated 99% playoff chance on football guys for whats its worth (obviously I don't put too much stock into that but will take it haha).
Obviously any number of strategies are very viable, but I am posting this to give you an idea of how I am thinking this season. Everyone says how much uncertainty there is at rb this year, so why chase it? Grab one you feel really good about starting every week, and from there just get players you are very confident in.
In the leagues I play in we start 2 rb and 2 wr with one flex. I am looking to grab the players who give me the highest probability to fill those slots with the most points possible. You have to start a qb and te every week, so it would be wise to have one that isn't going to frequently give you a disadvantage. You only have to start 2 rb's, which is all I plan on starting unless one of my mid-late rounder’s emerges. If I have a couple rb's projected 25-35 (who all typically come at a very good value), I should be able to find one I can start and not lose too much production. This strategy is mostly based around ppr leagues btw (only format I really understand values in).
Lets address a few things that some people may disagree with that I feel will give you an advantage:
A tight end like Jimmy Graham in the late first or early 2nd round of a ppr is a very, very viable play. Jimmy Graham is the #1 target in a top 3 passing offense, and is also an absolute proven beast of a performer. He plays a position that you typically can only start one of and HAVE TO START every week. If I can lock in a statistical edge that (barring injury) I am almost sure to see every week, why would I not? People ask "who are the next graham and gronk this year?". The answer, more than likely, is that they don’t exist. These two are not only top 5 talents, but more importantly play in offenses and have qb's that set them up for success. Sure some te's like Rudolph, Cook, Gresham, etc. could all pleasantly surprise this year, but they simply aren't in as good of situations. I will say that while I am confident gronk will perform, I am not sure I would pay for him based on where he is going right now. So if I can't get Graham I am targeting Gates or Hernandez, who are also in very good situations to succeed this year. The way I look at Graham is this: Should I draft Demarco Murray, who has started all of 6 or so games in his NFL career and been injured consistently dating back to college over him? Be my guest if you want to.
How about not grabbing a qb at the end of the first round and deciding to draft someone like Chris Johnson (who was terrible last year and looks mediocre again this pre season)? Rodgers, Brady, and Brees are likely to throw 1k yards more than the rest of the qb's (can maybe throw Stafford in there too). They will also likely throw 10 more td's than qb's you will get later. 1k yards=50 points in most leagues and 10 td's= 40 points. That’s a 90 point difference between those guys and someone you would grab in rounds 7-10. Not only is that a lot of points, you also have a better chance to actually take advantage of those points because a qb is again much less likely to get hurt than a rb you would draft at the end of round 1. And on top of all this they are also much more likely to perform consistently (and thus give you an advantage) every single week. Outside of Rice, Foster, Mccoy, and Mcfadden (if he is able to stay healthy), I don’t think the other options at rb are going to give you that. That is to say I would not at all be surprised if a rb someone takes in rounds 6-8 out performs a rb taken in rounds 2-3 any given week.
So if I am waiting so long to draft a rb2 what kinds of players am I targeting? I am looking to add 2-3 of Peyton Hillis, Stevan Ridley, Jonathan Stewart, Deangelo Williams, Ryan Williams, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram, David Wilson, Pierre Thomas, Jacquizz Rodger, Kendall Hunter. and Dexter Mccluster. If you can grab 2-3 of these players I am confident you get enough production out of that second rb slot that, coupled with the advantages you should enjoy at other positions, will give a statistical edge over your opponents from week to week. After all, fantasy football really just comes down to putting a line up on the field that gives you the best chance to score the most points. And in a passing league I want the people throwing and catching the passes.
To give an example of how I would execute this strategey in a very realistic setting ($125 12 team ppr league on rt sports) I will post a line up I was able to establish out of the two spot:
QB: Matt Ryan (5) (not completley elite but someone I feel very good about)
RB: Ray Rice (1), Peyton Hillis (7)
WR: AJ Green (2), Brandon Marshall (3)
TE: Gates (4) (obviously couldn't get Graham due to drafting so early)
Flex: Reggie Wayne (6) (High on him this year, particuarly in ppr)
Bench: Pierre Thomas, CJ Spiller, Dexter Mccluster, Mark Ingram, Jake Locker, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore.
This team was rated 99% playoff chance on football guys for whats its worth (obviously I don't put too much stock into that but will take it haha).
shhhhh. This Stud RB Theory (especially in ppr) was outdated even before 10QB's were challenging Marino's record.
