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wannabee Strategy Thread


wannabee

Question

I will be attempting to research and write one new article/post a week. I have the first one completed, with more to follow. Please feel free to comment. I am wanting to use this as a forum to discuss ideas and thoughts on players and situations.

I know others have done this, and are doing a great job by the way. I wanted to start this for trades, waiver wire, keeper strategy, etc. I am not a great guy for the "who should I start" type questions, but I do enjoy the strategy questions.

Feel free to post anything and I will give you the best answer I can. I would also like to encourage others to post answers to your questions, too. This is not about me, but rather about talking strategy as it applies to your specific team.

Fire away ..... with questions that is.

Please check back for new ideas and thoughts. Post 127 is copied and pasted from a thread/post by Beto about draft slots. A very good read.

Also, posts 124 and 125 are write ups about the rookie 2005 RBs written in December. Post 126 links Bloom's write up on those rookies.

Post 123 discusses possible future topics. Please weigh in if you want to see something else.

Below are the write ups on certain players/topics (I will try to keep up to date):

Matt Jones posts 64, 69, 70

Antonio Gates posts 76, 88, 89

Chester Taylor post 128, 223

Ernest Wilford post 131

Michael Clayton post 165

Cedric Benson (buy low) post 167

Gus Frerotte (buy low) post 198

Joe Jurevicius (possible sell high) post 202, 220

Rookie RBs in redraft post 203

Titan players in redraft posts 215, 235

Overall discussion on value posts 107, 112, 216, 239

Value of Rookie RBs post 48, 55, 57, 58, 61, 168

Value of Rookie WRs post 120

Draft preparation posts 10, 133, 134, 135, 145, 224, 234

Underdrafting of kickers and defenses posts 96, 97

Handcuffs post 231, 232, 246

Nightshift's insight post 91

Pro-football-reference.com intro post 254

Drinen article on WR consistency on same team post 255

Drinen article addressing WR/RB & RB/QB consistency from same team post 256

Drinen article assessing predictability of production post 257

Drinen article "who throws it where" post 258

Jeff Pasquino master dynasty thread post 259

Jake Plummer (buy low) post 262

Zach Hilton (buy low) post 263

Samie Parker (buy low) post 264

Amani Toomer (buy low) post 265

Laveranues Coles (buy low) post 271

Joe Horn (sell high) post 272

Aaron Brooks (buy low) post 279

Julius Jones (sell high) post 280

Brett Favre (buy low) post 282

Edge James (sell high) post 286

Links to the game logs for all teams post 289

Links to each team's target info post 292

Kurt Warner (buy low) post 303

This is not the year for Stud WR theory post 306

Bears Team Defense (sell high in redraft) post 311

Sluff RB2 strategy article (addressing the implementation of the strategy) part 1, post 363

Sluff RB2 strategy article (addressing details of the strategy) part 2, post 371

Draft Pick Trading Hint post 370

"Taking a Stand" post 380, 381, 382, 383, 385, 390, 391, 392, 397, 398, 401, 406, 438

Redraft QBs maximization post 387

BOLD predictions posts 485, 488

This thread has grown larger and faster than I expected it to. I was given a helpful and friendly PM saying so and they were right. I am not very good with links. But, I will link each page, not good enough to link each post.

Page 1 - Posts - 1-50: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...246784&st=0

Page 2 - Posts - 51-100: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...46784&st=50

Page 3 - Posts - 101-150: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=100

Page 4 - Posts - 151-200: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=150

Page 5 - Posts - 201-250: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=200

Page 6 - Posts - 251-301: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=250

Page 7 - Posts - 351-401: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=300

Page 8 - Posts - 401-450: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=350

Page 11 - Posts - 450-499: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...6784&st=500

New content added:

A look at the Jaguars Play Distribution post 1036

A 5 Year look at PPR -> Player Distribution

A Look at the Panthers inability to run the ball post 1078

A Look at Finding Value Post 1109

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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

Do not be afraid to go QBBC. I am very happy with Leftwich, Green, and McNair in one league.
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This is a dynasty rookie type question, my first rookie draft of an inherited team...

In a 1Qb/2Rb/3Wr/1Te 12-team league, I have among others:

QB: Brady

RB: Tiki, K Jones

WR: L Fitzgerald, C Johnson, Chambers

The team has pick 1.11 as it's first pick until picks 3.4 and 3.11.

My take on this team is that it has solid potential, but there is a fairly significant dropoff after the starters. Tiki's not getting any younger and any type of injury will really ruin it.

If I can assume that Drew, Calhoun, and C Jackson are around, am I obligated to overspend on Calhoun because of the K Jones situation? Or is the smart money on just the opposite - take the best available and hope Jones is OK for the long term?

I am very high on Calhoun. I think drafting Calhoun at 1.11 is a natural fit. You sure would hate for Tiki to go down to injury and KJ play like the KJ of 2005 instead of the last half of 2004 that all KJ lovers point to.
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should i trade Caddy, Wilford, Ricky Williams for Bush, Holt, Betts (i own Portis)

Yes. A Bush/Portis RB tandem would be hard to beat.

Holt for Wilford seals the deal

Exactly. Holt is a top 5, maybe top 3, dynasty wr
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wannabe, you really think that Shockey's good enough for the fifth round, that is to say, that much better than Heap or Gonzo, Cooley, or Crumples, who I think could be around at 6.6? He's the next one on your list that's still there. Foster was taken. No big surprise there.

What RBs are left?

What QBs are left?

What WRs are left?

I ask these to get a feel for who might drop if you go TE (Shockey) here. Also, what does your team look like at this point?

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It's all in the other thread, but I'll post here too. team same as handle:

1.1 - d4484 - Larry Johnson RB

1.2 - jpstruder - LT2 RB

1.3 - diesel109 - Shaun Alexander RB

1.4 - abalow - Peyton Manning QB

1.5 - igwebuike - Clinton Portis RB

1.6 - BryanLamb - Ronnie Brown RB

1.7 - sholditch - Edge RB

1.8 - Diablos - Rudi Johnson RB

1.9 - Snipes - Sjax RB

1.10 - BPWallace - Steve Smith WR

1.11 - Raiderfan013 - Caddy RB

1.12 - Mogamdogz - Lordan RB

2.1 - Mogamdogz - Fitz WR

2.2 - Raiderfan013 - Westy RB

2.3 - bpwallace - Palmer QB

2.4 - snipes - Tiki RB

2.5 - diablos - Dom Davis RB

2.6 - sholditch - Johnson WR

2.7 - BryanLamb - Gates TE

2.8 - igwebuike - Reggie Bush RB

2.9 - abalow - McGahee RB

2.10 - diesel109 - Randy Moss WR

2.11 - jpstruder - The Most Explosive Player In the Game RB

2.12 - d4484 - Boldin WR

3.1 d4484 - Holt WR Holt WR Holt WR

3.2 jpstruder - Kevin Jones RB

3.3 diesel109 - Ticking Time Bomb Owens - WR

3.4 abalow - FWP - RB

3.5 igwebuike - Wayne WR

3.6 BryanLamb - Chester Taylor RB

3.7 sholditch - DeAngelo Williams RB

3.8 Diablos - Law Maroney RB

3.9 Snipes - Javon't Walker WR

3.10 BPWallace - Benson RB

3.11 Raidersfan013 - Chambers WR

3.12 Mogamdogz - Addai RB

4.1 - Mogamdogz - Brady QB

4.2 - struder - Eli Manning QB

4.3 - bpwallace - Droughns RB

4.4 - snipes - Santana Moss WR

4.5 - diablos - Marvin Harrison WR

4.6 - sholditch - Jamal Lewis RB

4.7 - BryanLamb - Warrick Dunn RB

4.8 - igwebuike - Duece McCallister RB

4.9 - abalow - Plax WR

4.10 - diesel109 - Tater Bell RB

4.11 - Raidersfan - DJax WR

4.12 - d4484 - Foster RB

5.1 diablos - Ward WR

5.2 Raidersfan - Roy Williams WR

5.3 Mogamdogz - Corey Dillon

5.4 abalow -

5.5 igwebuike -

5.6 BryanLamb -

5.7 sholditch -

5.8 d4484 -

5.9 Snipes -

5.10 BPWallace -

5.11 Raidersfan013 -

5.12 diesel -

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Assuming I did not miss anyone, the choices are:

WR: Evans, Branch, and guys like Edwards, Housh, Driver, and Mason

TE: Shockey, Alge, Gonzo

RB: White, (I assume 2.11 is Kevin Jones), Tom Jones

QB: McNabb

Given this (assuming I did not miss anyone ... please let me know if I did), I would go with White or Shockey, then WR or QB next round. This gets to the point in the draft where each owner has a different level of risk that they like. Plus, this teams needs to be what you want it to be. But, since you only have to start 2 WRs, keep this in mind. I will tell you that I can smell QB, TE, and WR runs coming quick. In thie next 15 picks, several will be WRs, and few RBs. This is because White (and Jones) are the end of the talent before it drops off.

What does your team look like now? What do you want it to look like after 8 rounds?

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Start up 12 team contract league rosters 20 with 2 ir and 2 dp(development players). we have 8 contracts(keepers) years vary from 2-10 years) start 1 qb, 2 rb, 3wr. 1 te. 1 kicker and 1 defense the scoring is performance with 1 point per reception.

I have the 12th pick. I traded my 4.1 and 10.1 for his 5.6 and 6.7. I have a couple ideas of what i want to do but looking on others opinions as well. i'm a much better player for player trader, draft pick trades make me a little nervous but it's done so what do you think of the trade and your ideas of what you would do.

He basically has (2) 4th round picks and I have (4) picks in 5th and 6th rounds.

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Start up 12 team contract league rosters 20 with 2 ir and 2 dp(development players). we have 8 contracts(keepers) years vary from 2-10 years) start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2wr. 1 te. 1 kicker and 1 defense the scoring is performance with 1 point per reception.

I have the 12th pick. I traded my 4.1 and 10.1 for his 5.6 and 6.7. I have a couple ideas of what i want to do but looking on others opinions as well. i'm a much better player for player trader, draft pick trades make me a little nervous but it's done so what do you think of the trade and your ideas of what you would do.

He basically has (2) 4th round picks and I have (4) picks in 5th and 6th rounds.

I do like the trade for you. I think, for the most part, the players taken in the 4th round are not any better than SOME of the ones taken in the 5th. Look in the post above for players drafted. Not, the big dropoff, imo, is from 3rd round to 4th. Also, it seems to never fail that a decent WR and a decent RB drops to the 5th round that had no business there.

To put names on the picks (assuming all WRs to make it easy):

you gave Plax and Porter

you got two of: Branch, Driver, Mason, Edwards, Housh, Mark Clayton, etc.

It is a good deal for you.

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Assuming I did not miss anyone, the choices are:

WR: Evans, Branch, and guys like Edwards, Housh, Driver, and Mason

TE: Shockey, Alge, Gonzo

RB: White, (I assume 2.11 is Kevin Jones), Tom Jones

QB: McNabb

Given this (assuming I did not miss anyone ... please let me know if I did), I would go with White or Shockey, then WR or QB next round. This gets to the point in the draft where each owner has a different level of risk that they like. Plus, this teams needs to be what you want it to be. But, since you only have to start 2 WRs, keep this in mind. I will tell you that I can smell QB, TE, and WR runs coming quick. In thie next 15 picks, several will be WRs, and few RBs. This is because White (and Jones) are the end of the talent before it drops off.

What does your team look like now? What do you want it to look like after 8 rounds?

Right now

QB:

RB: Edge

RB: Jamal

RB/WR: DWill

WR: CJ

WR:

TE:

K:

DST:

I see that I really need either a good TE or a good WR, TE's more available, or a more solid RB for this year. QB I agree I can wait on.

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I agree. I think Branch (assuming contract issues get worked out) will be a starr this year but you can never assume consistency for any NE receiver. One thought would be TE (or White) here and WR/WR the next two rounds. I am going back and forth on this ... as you can tell.

I do think that in the next three rounds, you need one TE and two WRs. Clayton would be a good fit for the 7th round WR.

I think this is one of those times when only you can decide how you want your team to look.

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I was afraid you'd say that. Overall, if Shockey's there, I gotta consider that, but the guy picking next is a TE freak and will likely take him. Now, if White goes next, I've really got some thinking to do. Not really high on Branch. Might take Driver, but I feel that would be a reach, even though he's a no. 1. Basically now it's to who lasts between White and Shockey.

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I was afraid you'd say that. Overall, if Shockey's there, I gotta consider that, but the guy picking next is a TE freak and will likely take him. Now, if White goes next, I've really got some thinking to do. Not really high on Branch. Might take Driver, but I feel that would be a reach, even though he's a no. 1. Basically now it's to who lasts between White and Shockey.

haha. I just think that this team needs to be one you draft, and are proud as all get out when you dominate. Do you like Braylon Edwards? Another guy I like for your flex (to be taken later) is Jurevicius.
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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

Do not be afraid to go QBBC. I am very happy with Leftwich, Green, and McNair in one league.

Pretty much planning on it. Hoping maybe Culpepper will fall, or I can get a rook/vet combo like Leinart/Warner or Plummer/Cutler. Actually, Volek/Young would probably be easiest to get, but I'm not sure about young.

Oh, Andre Johnson off the board.

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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

Do not be afraid to go QBBC. I am very happy with Leftwich, Green, and McNair in one league.

Pretty much planning on it. Hoping maybe Culpepper will fall, or I can get a rook/vet combo like Leinart/Warner or Plummer/Cutler. Actually, Volek/Young would probably be easiest to get, but I'm not sure about young.

Oh, Andre Johnson off the board.

Oddly, the rookie Qbs have gone several rounds after the rookie teammate. Young goes aound the 8-10th, Volek in the 15th. This is why i went with a veteran QBBC. I think QBs are overrated to some degree. The three sleepers I like are: Bledsoe (only 33 years old), Favre (for a one year push), and McNair (only 33 years old).
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Dynasty

2 qb

2 rb

3 wr

2 flex (wr/rb/te)

1 te

1 k

1 d

PPR. Low end QB scoring (4 in top 30, 12 wrs, 13 rbs, 1 te last year)

So you don't really need stud QBs, but in a 10 team, start 2 qb, you don't want to be left without a QB. (Brees was recently traded for Wayne)

Currently have Bulger/Delhomme. Bulger worries me. I like Delhomme, solid starter, doesn't get hurt much. Volek is my backup, along with Pennington/Ramsey. So my backups are a mess.

I have a bunch of WRs. I can trade Moose, Pennington, Ramsey for Leftwich + Si Moss. It does hurt to lose a WR 20-30 guy who I could start most of the year.

But I like freeing up some roster space, getting out of the Jets QB mess, and Leftwich is young and still getting better. He'd probably be a backup, but it would let me trade Volek +. I'd feel fine with Bulger/Delhomme/Leftwich. With the low end QB scoring, I don't want to use 4-5-6 roster spots on QBs. WRs/RBs dominant, and we only have 24 roster spots. It's just hard to waste spots on QBs/TEs in this setup.

My main problem is, trading a flex PPR type WR - Moose - for a young QB who will be mostly a backup. I could survive with Volek/Pennington/Ramsey, but I'd love to free up some roster space. I plan on starting 2-3 rb 4-5 WRs, so Moose gives me some great options. Moose as my WR5 would be awesome. He'd probably be replaced by Burleson.

Anyway, your thoughts?

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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

Do not be afraid to go QBBC. I am very happy with Leftwich, Green, and McNair in one league.

Pretty much planning on it. Hoping maybe Culpepper will fall, or I can get a rook/vet combo like Leinart/Warner or Plummer/Cutler. Actually, Volek/Young would probably be easiest to get, but I'm not sure about young.

Oh, Andre Johnson off the board.

Oddly, the rookie Qbs have gone several rounds after the rookie teammate. Young goes aound the 8-10th, Volek in the 15th. This is why i went with a veteran QBBC. I think QBs are overrated to some degree. The three sleepers I like are: Bledsoe (only 33 years old), Favre (for a one year push), and McNair (only 33 years old).

Just to give you a full update: Shockey and Driver are now off the board, White is still there, but so is Joe Horn, Rod Smith, Todd Heap, Crumples, Gonzo, and Thomas Jones. Went with White.
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Dynasty

2 qb

2 rb

3 wr

2 flex (wr/rb/te)

1 te

1 k

1 d

PPR. Low end QB scoring (4 in top 30, 12 wrs, 13 rbs, 1 te last year)

So you don't really need stud QBs, but in a 10 team, start 2 qb, you don't want to be left without a QB. (Brees was recently traded for Wayne)

Currently have Bulger/Delhomme. Bulger worries me. I like Delhomme, solid starter, doesn't get hurt much. Volek is my backup, along with Pennington/Ramsey. So my backups are a mess.

I have a bunch of WRs. I can trade Moose, Pennington, Ramsey for Leftwich + Si Moss. It does hurt to lose a WR 20-30 guy who I could start most of the year.

But I like freeing up some roster space, getting out of the Jets QB mess, and Leftwich is young and still getting better. He'd probably be a backup, but it would let me trade Volek +. I'd feel fine with Bulger/Delhomme/Leftwich. With the low end QB scoring, I don't want to use 4-5-6 roster spots on QBs. WRs/RBs dominant, and we only have 24 roster spots. It's just hard to waste spots on QBs/TEs in this setup.

My main problem is, trading a flex PPR type WR - Moose - for a young QB who will be mostly a backup. I could survive with Volek/Pennington/Ramsey, but I'd love to free up some roster space. I plan on starting 2-3 rb 4-5 WRs, so Moose gives me some great options. Moose as my WR5 would be awesome. He'd probably be replaced by Burleson.

Anyway, your thoughts?

The options I see are:

1. Try to trade the Jets QBs for another position or picks. Then, your next move would be to get Frerotte. Gus was brought in specifically because Linehan is comfortable with him. I cannot imagine that Leftwich (in 2006) will outscore by much, if anything, your Volek/Gus combination if Bulger gets hurt.

2. Trade Volek for a decent, low end WR that can start in the flex (Toomer). This would let you then make your trade above. You might have to make it a Volek + for a Roddy White, for example, to upgrade the WR you would be getting in return. If you could get Toomer for Volek, it would set everything in motion. Toomer is way undervalued. This would give you the NYG WR2 giving Moss, the NYG WR3 time to develop.

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yeah, I've thought about him. There are a lot of up-and-comers that I think have a real possibility to breakout this season or next. I'll kepp you posted. Feeling pretty good about the team I got right now. Might have to suffer for a while at QB.

Do not be afraid to go QBBC. I am very happy with Leftwich, Green, and McNair in one league.

Pretty much planning on it. Hoping maybe Culpepper will fall, or I can get a rook/vet combo like Leinart/Warner or Plummer/Cutler. Actually, Volek/Young would probably be easiest to get, but I'm not sure about young.

Oh, Andre Johnson off the board.

Oddly, the rookie Qbs have gone several rounds after the rookie teammate. Young goes aound the 8-10th, Volek in the 15th. This is why i went with a veteran QBBC. I think QBs are overrated to some degree. The three sleepers I like are: Bledsoe (only 33 years old), Favre (for a one year push), and McNair (only 33 years old).

Just to give you a full update: Shockey and Driver are now off the board, White is still there, but so is Joe Horn, Rod Smith, Todd Heap, Crumples, Gonzo, and Thomas Jones. Went with White.

Not a bad move at all. Since you are looking for a WR2, stay away from Horn. I would look for the Rod Smith, Reg Brown, Stallworth, Mark Clayton types next. Also, I think you should look for WRs like Wilford and Jurevicius when you get into the double-digit rounds.

I like your team ..... maybe because I am a RB guy. :ph34r:

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Thanks man. RBs score pretty well in this league, and I figure that one of the two rooks will start the year. If guys like Taylor or Dayne are available in rounds 11-14 I might consider adding one of them.

BTW, the guy who wanted to trade for Jamal now says that I swiped White from him. I was toying with the thought of maybe offering White for his fifth and sixth, which would give me three picks in the 5-6 rounds. That would give me a good chance to come out with a top TE (Heap, Gonzo, and Crumples still there) but I really feel that there is a lot of talent that will be there later on at TE, though it would be nice to lock up some sure-thing talent. Then again, being this stacked at RB early might allow me to scoop most of the third tier/breakout WR talent in the next few while people take their insurance RBs. I've already offered my 8th and 12 for the 6.1, and if that goes I pick at 6.1 and 6.5 and keep White

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I had a thought that I wanted to throw out. In an earlier post, sholditch was comtemplating taking Len Dale White in the 5th round of an initial dynasty draft. Which he did and it was a great pick. While thinking about this, a thought occurred to me and I had to think about it for a while. I even ran it by someone I trust and run stuff through a lot (read: TOO MUCH).

Here is the thought (I have not done the research to prove this, just throwing it out there):

A top rookie RB is usually drafted in the late 3rd to the 4th round (5th is a steal) of initial dynasty drafts, with Bush a top 10 as an exception. This is the case almost every year. Occasionally, a top RB will be drafted around the end of round 2. Caddy was drafted this high some last year. Brown was drafted in the 30s (overall picks), just about where DeAngelo Williams and Maroney are this year.

Now, let's look ahead one year. We are only talking about value, not talent. If you drafted Caddy at 2.12, to pair with LT, you are so happy because Caddy is now thought of as a top 10 RB and overall player. This is even more the case for Brown. Let's say you draft two good players in rounds one and two of your initial draft, then Brown. You are very happy, too. Even Benson is worth more this year than last and has done little to warrant it.

I do want to throw out the obvious fact that this RB you take with a 3rd round pick in initial dynasty drafts (that would normally get you a guy like Chambers) cannot be a flop. Just ask the JJ Arrington owners. But, which Chambers owner would not trade Chambers for Caddy or Brown? None, I hope.

This sounds good, but how does this apply to my draft here in 2006?

I think that if you take more than one rookie RB in the first four rounds, you might be setting yourself up for the future but hurting the current year. Also, do realize that there are rook RBs that flop most years (my pick for 2006 is Addai).

Now, let's get back to the pick that started this thought process for me, LenDale White. If White has the exact numbers that Ronnie Brown had in 2005, and Brown leaves next offseason, what will be White's value? I see it being equal (at least, given the previous assumption) to Willie Parker or Chester Taylor. This means that Sholditch got a steal in this draft.

So, basically, I am trying to articulate that I think that rookie RBs in dynasty drafts are very good value in the long run as long as you can avoid the bust.

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Thanks man. RBs score pretty well in this league, and I figure that one of the two rooks will start the year. If guys like Taylor or Dayne are available in rounds 11-14 I might consider adding one of them.

BTW, the guy who wanted to trade for Jamal now says that I swiped White from him. I was toying with the thought of maybe offering White for his fifth and sixth, which would give me three picks in the 5-6 rounds. That would give me a good chance to come out with a top TE (Heap, Gonzo, and Crumples still there) but I really feel that there is a lot of talent that will be there later on at TE, though it would be nice to lock up some sure-thing talent. Then again, being this stacked at RB early might allow me to scoop most of the third tier/breakout WR talent in the next few while people take their insurance RBs. I've already offered my 8th and 12 for the 6.1, and if that goes I pick at 6.1 and 6.5 and keep White

I would keep White and, at worst, target two of: Troupe, Watson, McMichael, Cooley, Smith, Winslow, or Stevens. If you can only get one of those TEs, try to get Lewis in the 12th or 13th.

Look at my above post about White.

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Makes me feel good about my last two picks. First off, I think that people bailed on White for pretty dumb reasons. He was a inside beast at USC and landed in a pretty favorable situation. Just because he flunked his pro-day and didn't want to seriously injure his hammy during the combine is no reason to all of a sudden rank him at the bottom of the class, when prior to the rookie workouts there were a lot of people considering him as the second best RB in the class. Every offseason I try to identify some nonsensical groupthought and exploit it. White falling as far he did based on two days of work outs while he was injured is definitely one of them. Then again, I did take a risk by taking two rooks, but I really feel that both will produce, and become really good backs (I've been waiting for DWill to graduate for three years).

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If anyone has ideas, questions or responses to any of my posts (or other topics), especially the ones dealing with strategy (posts 10 and 48), please share. I would like this thread to be about the sharing of ideas as it applies to strategic ways to make our teams better.

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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers, and J. Campbell are available also.

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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers,  and J. Campbell are available also.

A couple of questions:

How many players are kept? What other QBs do you have? I ask this one to gauge whether or not a guy like McNair would help you or not. He is 33 yrs old and probably has a couple of years left.

Also, what are your other team needs. I ask this because of the potential Carr trade. Without knowing the answer I will go out on a limb and say that Carr for pick 3.10 is a steal, assuming you keep 10 or more players per team. Carr would be a nice QB to have as a young backup. But, I do think his upside is more limited than a few on this list.

As a QB for the future (implying that you will not need this QB in 2006), I would put them in this order:

M. Lienart

J. Culter

CARR

M. Schaub

C. Frye

Campbell

S. McNair

A. Smith

McCown

Rodgers

I think that you take Leinart if you can. That seems like a slam dunk. Cutler is a very good prospect. You can see the bolded part as where I put Carr on that list as QBs for the future. On the list, after Cutler, it is more about judging talent and guessing how the situations will play out. As it stands now, this is how I would put the order.

But, the next question is: Since Wannabee has a bunch of these QBs so close, which one should I pick at which pick? I would say that I would try to get Leinart or Cutler with 1.10. If not, take Carr. Otherwise, I would wait and try to get a guy like Frye or Campbell later. This is when it comes down to value.

ETA: The reason Leinart and Cutler stand out to me is the high upside. If you are taking a QB for the future, and do not need him in 2006, he better have some upside. Most of how I ranked the guys above was using the balance between value and upside, with a heavy weighting of the upside.

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Hi wannabee. I've always appreciated your opinions on here, this is a great idea. I have 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, and feel i have a great shot at the playoffs in all of them. But i have one last new league i'm doing, which drafts in late july/early august.

I have the 5th spot. I want Portis, but know he'll likely go 1.4.

First question is, do you take Jackson, Caddy, or Ronnie Brown at 1.5, and why?

Then what type of strategy would you use in the first, say, 6-8 rounds? This is a BIG money league for me ($250) 1 pt per reception league, passing TDs 4 pts, all others 6 pts. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 RB or WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.

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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers, and J. Campbell are available also.

A couple of questions:

How many players are kept? What other QBs do you have? I ask this one to gauge whether or not a guy like McNair would help you or not. He is 33 yrs old and probably has a couple of years left.

Also, what are your other team needs. I ask this because of the potential Carr trade. Without knowing the answer I will go out on a limb and say that Carr for pick 3.10 is a steal, assuming you keep 10 or more players per team. Carr would be a nice QB to have as a young backup. But, I do think his upside is more limited than a few on this list.

As a QB for the future (implying that you will not need this QB in 2006), I would put them in this order:

M. Lienart

J. Culter

CARR

M. Schaub

C. Frye

Campbell

S. McNair

A. Smith

McCown

Rodgers

I think that you take Leinart if you can. That seems like a slam dunk. Cutler is a very good prospect. You can see the bolded part as where I put Carr on that list as QBs for the future. On the list, after Cutler, it is more about judging talent and guessing how the situations will play out. As it stands now, this is how I would put the order.

But, the next question is: Since Wannabee has a bunch of these QBs so close, which one should I pick at which pick? I would say that I would try to get Leinart or Cutler with 1.10. If not, take Carr. Otherwise, I would wait and try to get a guy like Frye or Campbell later. This is when it comes down to value.

ETA: The reason Leinart and Cutler stand out to me is the high upside. If you are taking a QB for the future, and do not need him in 2006, he better have some upside. Most of how I ranked the guys above was using the balance between value and upside, with a heavy weighting of the upside.

Roster Requirement: 3QBs, 7RBs, 7WRs, 4TEs, 2Ks, 2Defs

My other QBs are McNabb and Bulger.

As far as my team needs go, last year in was QB but I recently traded for McNabb this offseason and grabbed Bulger after the owner cut him when Bulger go injured. I got lucky and won last year inspite of the QB issues I had at the end of the season.

My other positions are pretty strong, this year I'll be drafting for the future and could be just drafting the "best player available."

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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers,  and J. Campbell are available also.

A couple of questions:

How many players are kept? What other QBs do you have? I ask this one to gauge whether or not a guy like McNair would help you or not. He is 33 yrs old and probably has a couple of years left.

Also, what are your other team needs. I ask this because of the potential Carr trade. Without knowing the answer I will go out on a limb and say that Carr for pick 3.10 is a steal, assuming you keep 10 or more players per team. Carr would be a nice QB to have as a young backup. But, I do think his upside is more limited than a few on this list.

As a QB for the future (implying that you will not need this QB in 2006), I would put them in this order:

M. Lienart

J. Culter

CARR

M. Schaub

C. Frye

Campbell

S. McNair

A. Smith

McCown

Rodgers

I think that you take Leinart if you can. That seems like a slam dunk. Cutler is a very good prospect. You can see the bolded part as where I put Carr on that list as QBs for the future. On the list, after Cutler, it is more about judging talent and guessing how the situations will play out. As it stands now, this is how I would put the order.

But, the next question is: Since Wannabee has a bunch of these QBs so close, which one should I pick at which pick? I would say that I would try to get Leinart or Cutler with 1.10. If not, take Carr. Otherwise, I would wait and try to get a guy like Frye or Campbell later. This is when it comes down to value.

ETA: The reason Leinart and Cutler stand out to me is the high upside. If you are taking a QB for the future, and do not need him in 2006, he better have some upside. Most of how I ranked the guys above was using the balance between value and upside, with a heavy weighting of the upside.

Roster Requirement: 3QBs, 7RBs, 7WRs, 4TEs, 2Ks, 2Defs

My other QBs are McNabb and Bulger.

As far as my team needs go, last year in was QB but I recently traded for McNabb this offseason and grabbed Bulger after the owner cut him when Bulger go injured. I got lucky and won last year inspite of the QB issues I had at the end of the season.

My other positions are pretty strong, this year I'll be drafting for the future and could be just drafting the "best player available."

This makes the decision very, very easy. Take Leinart or Cutler at 1.10. If neither are there, wait until late in the draft and take one of the ones on your list late in the draft. This is not a need. If none are there, take Frerotte with your last pick. The chances of Bulger lasting the entire season is slim. The only caveat is if this is a start 2 QB league. I assume it is not with this post.
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Hi wannabee. I've always appreciated your opinions on here, this is a great idea. I have 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, and feel i have a great shot at the playoffs in all of them. But i have one last new league i'm doing, which drafts in late july/early august.

I have the 5th spot. I want Portis, but know he'll likely go 1.4.

First question is, do you take Jackson, Caddy, or Ronnie Brown at 1.5, and why?

Then what type of strategy would you use in the first, say, 6-8 rounds? This is a BIG money league for me ($250) 1 pt per reception league, passing TDs 4 pts, all others 6 pts.

That is big money for most people. I will give you a few options to think about. I want to gather my thoughts on this and will give you a long, detailed post with some thoughts this afternoon.
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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers, and J. Campbell are available also.

A couple of questions:

How many players are kept? What other QBs do you have? I ask this one to gauge whether or not a guy like McNair would help you or not. He is 33 yrs old and probably has a couple of years left.

Also, what are your other team needs. I ask this because of the potential Carr trade. Without knowing the answer I will go out on a limb and say that Carr for pick 3.10 is a steal, assuming you keep 10 or more players per team. Carr would be a nice QB to have as a young backup. But, I do think his upside is more limited than a few on this list.

As a QB for the future (implying that you will not need this QB in 2006), I would put them in this order:

M. Lienart

J. Culter

CARR

M. Schaub

C. Frye

Campbell

S. McNair

A. Smith

McCown

Rodgers

I think that you take Leinart if you can. That seems like a slam dunk. Cutler is a very good prospect. You can see the bolded part as where I put Carr on that list as QBs for the future. On the list, after Cutler, it is more about judging talent and guessing how the situations will play out. As it stands now, this is how I would put the order.

But, the next question is: Since Wannabee has a bunch of these QBs so close, which one should I pick at which pick? I would say that I would try to get Leinart or Cutler with 1.10. If not, take Carr. Otherwise, I would wait and try to get a guy like Frye or Campbell later. This is when it comes down to value.

ETA: The reason Leinart and Cutler stand out to me is the high upside. If you are taking a QB for the future, and do not need him in 2006, he better have some upside. Most of how I ranked the guys above was using the balance between value and upside, with a heavy weighting of the upside.

Roster Requirement: 3QBs, 7RBs, 7WRs, 4TEs, 2Ks, 2Defs

My other QBs are McNabb and Bulger.

As far as my team needs go, last year in was QB but I recently traded for McNabb this offseason and grabbed Bulger after the owner cut him when Bulger go injured. I got lucky and won last year inspite of the QB issues I had at the end of the season.

My other positions are pretty strong, this year I'll be drafting for the future and could be just drafting the "best player available."

This makes the decision very, very easy. Take Leinart or Cutler at 1.10. If neither are there, wait until late in the draft and take one of the ones on your list late in the draft. This is not a need. If none are there, take Frerotte with your last pick. The chances of Bulger lasting the entire season is slim. The only caveat is if this is a start 2 QB league. I assume it is not with this post.

This is correct, we start 1QB: TD=6pts, 10yds=1pt (passing/rushing), 2ptconv=2pts, and int=-1.
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Hello wannabee,

I have the QBs I need for the next two years. But I need a young QB for the future and the following are available in the upcoming draft.

It's a 10 team Dynasty and our draft is rooks/vets combined and we go 10 rounds.

I currently have the following picks 1.10, 2.5, 2.7, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, etc...

M. Lienart

A. Smith

J. Culter

S. McNair

C. Frye

M. Schaub

The owner of D. Carr has expressed interest in trading Carr for my 3.10 pick.

Considering the info given, please rank and at which pick would you consider drafting. (and what other insight you may have).

Thanks,

Tex

Oh and J. McCown, A. Rodgers,  and J. Campbell are available also.

A couple of questions:

How many players are kept? What other QBs do you have? I ask this one to gauge whether or not a guy like McNair would help you or not. He is 33 yrs old and probably has a couple of years left.

Also, what are your other team needs. I ask this because of the potential Carr trade. Without knowing the answer I will go out on a limb and say that Carr for pick 3.10 is a steal, assuming you keep 10 or more players per team. Carr would be a nice QB to have as a young backup. But, I do think his upside is more limited than a few on this list.

As a QB for the future (implying that you will not need this QB in 2006), I would put them in this order:

M. Lienart

J. Culter

CARR

M. Schaub

C. Frye

Campbell

S. McNair

A. Smith

McCown

Rodgers

I think that you take Leinart if you can. That seems like a slam dunk. Cutler is a very good prospect. You can see the bolded part as where I put Carr on that list as QBs for the future. On the list, after Cutler, it is more about judging talent and guessing how the situations will play out. As it stands now, this is how I would put the order.

But, the next question is: Since Wannabee has a bunch of these QBs so close, which one should I pick at which pick? I would say that I would try to get Leinart or Cutler with 1.10. If not, take Carr. Otherwise, I would wait and try to get a guy like Frye or Campbell later. This is when it comes down to value.

ETA: The reason Leinart and Cutler stand out to me is the high upside. If you are taking a QB for the future, and do not need him in 2006, he better have some upside. Most of how I ranked the guys above was using the balance between value and upside, with a heavy weighting of the upside.

Roster Requirement: 3QBs, 7RBs, 7WRs, 4TEs, 2Ks, 2Defs

My other QBs are McNabb and Bulger.

As far as my team needs go, last year in was QB but I recently traded for McNabb this offseason and grabbed Bulger after the owner cut him when Bulger go injured. I got lucky and won last year inspite of the QB issues I had at the end of the season.

My other positions are pretty strong, this year I'll be drafting for the future and could be just drafting the "best player available."

This makes the decision very, very easy. Take Leinart or Cutler at 1.10. If neither are there, wait until late in the draft and take one of the ones on your list late in the draft. This is not a need. If none are there, take Frerotte with your last pick. The chances of Bulger lasting the entire season is slim. The only caveat is if this is a start 2 QB league. I assume it is not with this post.

This is correct, we start 1QB: TD=6pts, 10yds=1pt (passing/rushing), 2ptconv=2pts, and int=-1.

Then take Leinart or Cutler
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Hi wannabee. I've always appreciated your opinions on here, this is a great idea. I have 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, and feel i have a great shot at the playoffs in all of them. But i have one last new league i'm doing, which drafts in late july/early august.

I have the 5th spot. I want Portis, but know he'll likely go 1.4.

First question is, do you take Jackson, Caddy, or Ronnie Brown at 1.5, and why?

Then what type of strategy would you use in the first, say, 6-8 rounds? This is a BIG money league for me ($250) 1 pt per reception league, passing TDs 4 pts, all others 6 pts. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 RB or WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.

I apologize if this is long, but I have been in and seen a few drafts lately and have some thoughts/ideas that worked.

The very first thing I would do is to look at as many similar drafts as possible to get a feel for how it might play out. I think there is a thread in the Shark Pool with these drafts. In addition, I would study the ADP numbers to get a feel for how others value the players.

First off, unless you are wanting Bush, 1.05 is a tough spot to be. I would ask myself how bad you want Portis. If you really want him, I would suggest trading up to 1.03 (some people are passing on Alexander for Portis) for Portis and not Alexander. If the 1.03 owner is willing, this should cost you something like 1.5, 2.08, 4.08 for 1.03, 2.10, 5.02 or maybe adding 6.08 for 7.02 (or even changing the 5.02 you get back for the 6.10). I realize that you might feel that this is cheap or expensive depending on what you think of Portis. If you use the FBG pick calculator, I would expect to pay a 10% premium to move up. This means that the calculator will say the other guys benefits by 10%, which I think is fair considering the dropoff in talent in most people's mind after Portis.

If you stay put, and like Bush, you are guaranteed of having one of Portis, Alexander or Bush. Do not discout the thought that Alexander might fall to 1.05. I would put the chances at 10%, which is higher than most think.

If you feel that you do not want to pay the price to move up, I would suggest moving down. Admittedly, I am not a Caddy fan. I do like the other two. I would suggest you drop back to 1.07 or 1.08. At 1.08, assuming you like Caddy, Brown, Jackson, and even Bush, you are guaranteed one of them. By trading down, you should expect a similar 10% premium. This might mean you get a 3rd for your 4th (which is bigger than you'd think). This might mean the difference between a RB like Benson or DeAngelo Williams and one like Droughns or Dunn.

If you move down, I want to give you something else to think about. The best draft I have seen this year was from a guy who traded out of the 1st for a 2nd (2.4) and a 3rd (3.7). This draft was full of owners we all know and respect. This one guy, by trading down, had Jordan fall to him. No way that happens often, but there are a ton of RBs lumped together that one has to fall. Westbrook and DomDavis, along with Edge, Willis, and Tiki are almost always available in the 2nd round. I would only trade out of the 1st round if the 2nd rounder in return was a high 2nd rounder.

Here is the guy's roster (we start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 wr, 1 te 3 flex) and it is ppr:

Player Bye

Holcomb, Kelly BUF QB - 8

Leftwich, Byron JAC QB - 6

Losman, J.P. BUF QB - 8

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 9

Anderson, Mike BAL RB - 7

Bennett, Michael NOS RB - 7

Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 6

Duckett, T.J. ATL RB - 5

Jones, Greg JAC RB - 6

Jordan, Lamont OAK RB - 3

Lewis, Jamal BAL RB - 7

Taylor, Fred JAC RB - 6

Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 9

Bradley, Mark CHI WR - 7

Burleson, Nate SEA WR - 5

Chambers, Chris MIA WR - 8

Engram, Bobby SEA WR - 5

Jones, Brandon TEN WR - 7

Lloyd, Brandon WAS WR - 8

McCareins, Justin NYJ WR - 9

Owens, Terrell DAL WR - 3

Wilson, Cedrick PIT WR - 4

Pollard, Marcus DET TE - 8

Witten, Jason DAL TE - 3

Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 6

Redskins, Washington WAS Def -

Two other thoughts for you that worked. Two guys used a similar strategy that paid off bigtime. One traded down one round often and received back 2007 1st rounders. For example, he gave a 5th and received a 6th and the 2007 1st. He now has a fair to decent team with 6 2007 first rounders. His roster is full of young guys with upside. The other strategy that worked out great for a guy was trading down a ton. When the draft gets into the 2nd round, people will be trying to trade up for "their guy". He would make a 10% premium and did well. For instance, if you traded from 1.05 to 1.08 and collected a 3rd for your 4th as payment. You now have a 1st, a 2nd, and two 3rds. Now, let's say you trade out of the 1st round (plus a 5th) for a 2nd and a 3rd. Now, you have two 2nds and three 3rds. You now have (2) top 20 players and (5) top 36 players. With this, you have flexibility. You could now trade (2) 3rds for a 2nd and a 4th (if you really wanted a certain player). Or, you could trade a 2nd and 6th for a 3rd and a 4th. There IS a limit to how far you can trade down and not hurt yourself. This is why you need to study the drafts and ADPs so you can guess who will be there for the trade down pick.

Closing thoughts:

a. In this league, there is a guy with LT, Portis, and Eli. But, the cost of getting LT (2nd and (2) 4ths) crippled his ability to get WRs and RB depth. He would tell you he thinks his team stinks. PPR limits the point difference between LT and say a guy like Westbrook. I would urge you to take the draft dominator, uploaded with the current projections, and input your scoring system. You will be surprised what the results look like.

b. Plan your target players two rounds ahead so nothing surprises you. This takes discipline but is worth the effort. It also allows you to evaluate your options (trade up or trade down).

c. Veteran WRs that are studs in PPR always drop. I was able to get Driver in the 8th round and Mason went in the 7th. These two will outproduce many 3rd and 4th round WRs.

I apologize for the length of this, but think it might help you as you plan for your draft.

Good Luck.

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very insightful post. Unfortunately the league voted no trading of individual draft picks in this league. I can't blame them since its $250. So all i could chose to do is possibly swap draft positions with someone, and would only do that if i knew for sure Portis was gone at 1.4. I guess i could then look at moving to 6, 7, or no worse than the 8th spot. I'd get the early 2nd round pick at least...i'll look and see what that looks like..

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OK, in the middle of the fourth in an inaugural 12-team dynasty draft, and I just took Jamal at 4.06. Another owner wanted him and has offered his 4.10 and 5.03 for Jamal and my 8.06.

12-teamer, start QB, WR, WR, WR/RB, RB, RB, TE, K, DST

HP scoring, currently in round 4, my roster:

Edge, CJ, DeAngelo Williams, Jamal

notable rbs left:

Tjones

Dillon

Foster

White

Barlow

Gore

Taylor

Martin

Green

Gado

notable WRs:

Ward

Buress

DJax

Driver

Mason

Bennett

all rooks and sophomores

I'm going to wait and see what players are left at his spot when it comes to him to make a decision, but if the draft pool stays as it is, is it a good move or not? I feel I got pretty good value with Jamal. If I did want to make the trade I'd prolly counter with Jamal and my 10th or 11th.

One thing that I just thought about is that this guy is def. going to take Foster at one of those picks to seek a trade for Jamal. HE only has one RB, SA, so there is actually a good possibility that he will take 2 RBs with those two picks, and I would think that he'd be looking hard at White, another guy I wouldn't mind getting. Of course, what would be ideal would be to be able to keep Jamal and get Foster, to lock up my three starting RBs, but that seems impossible now. Then again, there is a chance that Green, Dillon, or TJones could fall to me at 5.7, but if I take one of them probably most of the tier2-3 WRs will be gone. What would you do?

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very insightful post. Unfortunately the league voted no trading of individual draft picks in this league. I can't blame them since its $250. So all i could chose to do is possibly swap draft positions with someone, and would only do that if i knew for sure Portis was gone at 1.4. I guess i could then look at moving to 6, 7, or no worse than the 8th spot. I'd get the early 2nd round pick at least...i'll look and see what that looks like..

My thoughts, as the draft progressed, were that the stud RBs were thin by pick 20ish. By "stud RBs", I mean the ones left were: FWP, Taylor, Tiki, Benson, DeAngelo Williams, Maroney, KJones, JLewis, TJones, etc.

By this time, the value shifts from the RBs to the WRs and Gates, imo. I think you could start a lot worse than Portis and Gates. Gates is a steal starting in the last bit of round 2. Also, Manning is decent value there. But, the thing that shocked me was that WRs like TO, Holt, Moss, and Boldin go in the late 2nd/early 3rd rounds. This means that the guy with 1.01 could end up with LJ (or LT), TO, and Gates which would be a strong start. Also, WRs like Wayne, Harrison and Chambers usually go in the the 3rd, along with the two top rookie RBs, and the list of RBs above. Round 4 is odd. There is usually a WR that starts free-falling. SanMoss dropped all the way down to 5.01, which was a steal. But, to me, the 4th round WRs are no better than the 6th-8th round WRs in a PPR league. Guys like Roy Williams, Evans, Plax, SMoss, Walker, and Darrell Jackson usually go in the 4th. But, I am inclined to think that a guy like Mason (or even Driver) might outproduce those WRs in a PPR league. So, the 4th round is for looking to see who is falling and presents value. It might be a QB (palmer) or TE (Shockey), or a RB (TJones, LenDale White, Dunn, etc.).

Also, as the draft progresses, try to see what your team will look like so you can make adjustments on the fly to address problem areas.

Hope this helps.

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OK, in the middle of the fourth in an inaugural 12-team dynasty draft, and I just took Jamal at 4.06. Another owner wanted him and has offered his 4.10 and 5.03 for Jamal and my 8.06.

12-teamer, start QB, WR, WR, WR/RB, RB, RB, TE, K, DST

HP scoring, currently in round 4, my roster:

Edge, CJ, DeAngelo Williams, Jamal

notable rbs left:

Tjones

Dillon

Foster

White

Barlow

Gore

Taylor

Martin

Green

Gado

notable WRs:

Ward

Buress

DJax

Driver

Mason

Bennett

all rooks and sophomores

I'm going to wait and see what players are left at his spot when it comes to him to make a decision, but if the draft pool stays as it is, is it a good move or not? I feel I got pretty good value with Jamal. If I did want to make the trade I'd prolly counter with Jamal and my 10th or 11th.

One thing that I just thought about is that this guy is def. going to take Foster at one of those picks to seek a trade for Jamal. HE only has one RB, SA, so there is actually a good possibility that he will take 2 RBs with those two picks, and I would think that he'd be looking hard at White, another guy I wouldn't mind getting. Of course, what would be ideal would be to be able to keep Jamal and get Foster, to lock up my three starting RBs, but that seems impossible now. Then again, there is a chance that Green, Dillon, or TJones could fall to me at 5.7, but if I take one of them probably most of the tier2-3 WRs will be gone. What would you do?

I would:

a. Keep Lewis (even though I am not a huge fan). He is at the tail end of a RB run where the talent is dropping off quickly. To be honest, you do not want Foster, just because you have Williams.

b. Take Mike Anderson a round earlier than you normally would because you think this guy might try to "poach" you. This probably means the 9th round so plan accordingly.

c. You are looking at your WR2, so just wait to see who drops. One, or several will drop to you. I would not include Bennett with the rest of those WRs. I assume the HP includes PPR. Is this correct?

d. In round 6, I would look for one of the top 4 (imo) TEs to be there (Gates, Gonzo, Shockey, and Alge). If all are gone, that means there is value somewhere. It might be at QB, or back at RB. If this is PPR, I would love to get a RB like Perry here and have RBs of: Edge, Lewis, and Perry. But, I would look TE first.

e. Assuming you go TE in 6th, I would look for value RBs and WRs in the 7th. You never know when a guy like Coles, Driver, Mason, Dayne, Dillon (to give DWilliams time to develop), Marion Barber (one of my faves), etc will fall. This pick has a decent chance at starting in the flex spot for you so it is a pivotal pick.

f. I would look for guys like Mark Clayton (7th-8th round at latest), Wilford, Housh, Reggie Brown, Muhammed, Stallworth, and Rod Smith as the draft progresses in case you need a WR to start in the flex.

Hope this helps.

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Thanks man, I think you are dead on. Gates was taken in the second (lol) and I agree about the dropoff. I have a lot of the later round WRs you mentioned in mind. Sorry if I was anxious. The people I'm drafting with have no patience (to an almost comical level) and I'm afraid some of their bad manners have rubbed off. I'll be more patient in the future. I would imagine Shockey will go somewhere in the fifth, and yeah, if there is quality at WR I'll take one. Buress just went off the board at 4.09. Since I took jamal it's gone Deuce, Dunn, Buress, leaving Ward and Djax out there.

BTW, league is not ppr, so mason is a little less valuable. I am actually pondering White in the fifth if both Ward and DJax are gone. What do you think about that? Dumb move? I was thinking that I should be able to lock up Chris Brown much later...

Would love to hear your thoughts on Matt Jones also. I think he has major potential, probably not this year, but full-blown by year three. What round would you look for him?

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Thanks man, I think you are dead on. Gates was taken in the second (lol) and I agree about the dropoff. I have a lot of the later round WRs you mentioned in mind. Sorry if I was anxious. The people I'm drafting with have no patience (to an almost comical level) and I'm afraid some of their bad manners have rubbed off. I'll be more patient in the future. I would imagine Shockey will go somewhere in the fifth, and yeah, if there is quality at WR I'll take one. Buress just went off the board at 4.09. Since I took jamal it's gone Deuce, Dunn, Buress, leaving Ward and Djax out there.

BTW, league is not ppr, so mason is a little less valuable. I am actually pondering White in the fifth if both Ward and DJax are gone. What do you think about that? Dumb move? I was thinking that I should be able to lock up Chris Brown much later...

Would love to hear your thoughts on Matt Jones also. I think he has major potential, probably not this year, but full-blown by year three. What round would you look for him?

Ok. No problem. We are in round 5, so you now have 3 RBs and one WR. You can start 3 RBs, which is a luxure in non-ppr leagues. I would target these guys in order:

Ward

Burress

Shockey

White

Top QB

Mark Clayton

Houshmandzadeh

Other RB that drops.

If all of the above guys are gone, there will be a RB steal.

The good news is that Mason and Driver will probably be there for you next round. These guys would be awesome WR3, and good WR2.

a. Surprisingly, Chris Brown goes early .... too early. If you get White, you have to trust coach Fisher when he says that White will get the rock a lot. Do not waste a pick on Brown. Get Dayne or Gado later instead. Also, I like Calhoun in the 10th-12th rounds.

b. Matt Jones .... I think the guy is a freak. I cannot seem to imagine this guy with huge yardage and catch numbers like everyone else seems to. But, I see him as a TD machine. I can see a lot of years with 60 catch, 900 yards, and 9 TDs or something like that. The guy that intrigues me is Wilford. I was able to get him in the 13th in a draft a couple months ago. I think at worst, Wilford produces at 75-80% of Jones and could be much better. The good thing about Wilford is that he started across from Jommy Smith (for the last few games in 2005) which has to tell you something. In general, I think Jones is overrated. He goes in the 5th-7th round usually. I know a few very good WRs that he will be drafted before. Do not sleep on Mark Clayton, he could be a star. Also, vets like Kennison are always nice to have.

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yo man, you read my mind of Clayton. HUGE december and now with McNair in town even better. Drafting with a few packer fans so I doubt Driver will fall, but Mason could. Burress already gone, and I'm expecting Shockey to be taken when it comes back to me, which hopefully means that either White or TJones will fall to me, though this whole holdout BS has me pretty concerned.

Thanks for the advice. All very sound. Just out of curiosity, why do you see Jones not getting to be a 1,000 yard receiver? Too big?

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yo man, you read my mind of Clayton. HUGE december and now with McNair in town even better. Drafting with a few packer fans so I doubt Driver will fall, but Mason could. Burress already gone, and I'm expecting Shockey to be taken when it comes back to me, which hopefully means that either White or TJones will fall to me, though this whole holdout BS has me pretty concerned.

Thanks for the advice. All very sound. Just out of curiosity, why do you see Jones not getting to be a 1,000 yard receiver? Too big?

The last four years, the Jags have not gone to the WRs a ton until last year. Here is the totals:

http://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...att%2Brsh%2Brec

During this time, Jimmy Smith has been the only one over 1000 yards and he did it three of the four years.

Here is the stats:

http://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...att%2Brsh%2Brec

I do realize that these yards will have to go somewhere, but this will be the first time in a while that the Jags have had a solid receiving TE. I see Smith's numbers distributed fairly evenly between Jones, Wilford, Lewis and Williams.

This is why I see Wilford as the value guy.

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should i trade Caddy, Wilford, Ricky Williams for Bush, Holt, Betts (i own Portis)

In a heartbeat. Caddy is superior to Bush for now, but could see that gap closing quickely. The value you get by adding Holt and Betts more htan compensates for that.
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This is a dynasty rookie type question, my first rookie draft of an inherited team...

In a 1Qb/2Rb/3Wr/1Te 12-team league, I have among others:

QB: Brady

RB: Tiki, K Jones

WR: L Fitzgerald, C Johnson, Chambers

The team has pick 1.11 as it's first pick until picks 3.4 and 3.11.

My take on this team is that it has solid potential, but there is a fairly significant dropoff after the starters. Tiki's not getting any younger and any type of injury will really ruin it.

If I can assume that Drew, Calhoun, and C Jackson are around, am I obligated to overspend on Calhoun because of the K Jones situation? Or is the smart money on just the opposite - take the best available and hope Jones is OK for the long term?

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