wannabee Strategy Thread (2 Viewers)

dynasty league 12 team starts 1qb 2rb 3wr 1te 1dst 1k no points for reception

my team

QBS

M Hasselbeck

J Kitna

D Culpepper

D Carr

RBS

C Williams

C Taylor

C Houston

S Alexander

M Morris

WRS

S Smith

E Kennison

P Burress

C Chambers

K Johnson

K Curtis

TE

J Shockey

L.J. Smith

K

S Graham

Should i trade Culpepper and Chambers for Holt and Leftwich?

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I had a thought that I wanted to throw out.  In an earlier post, sholditch was comtemplating taking Len Dale White in the 5th round of an initial dynasty draft.  Which he did and it was a great pick.  While thinking about this, a thought occurred to me and I had to think about it for a while.  I even ran it by someone I trust and run stuff through a lot (read: TOO MUCH).

Here is the thought (I have not done the research to prove this, just throwing it out there):

A top rookie RB is usually drafted in the late 3rd to the 4th round (5th is a steal) of initial dynasty drafts, with Bush a top 10 as an exception.  This is the case almost every year.  Occasionally, a top RB will be drafted around the end of round 2.  Caddy was drafted this high some last year.  Brown was drafted in the 30s (overall picks), just about where DeAngelo Williams and Maroney are this year. 

Now, let's look ahead one year.  We are only talking about value, not talent.  If you drafted Caddy at 2.12, to pair with LT, you are so happy because Caddy is now thought of as a top 10 RB and overall player.  This is even more the case for Brown.  Let's say you draft two good players in rounds one and two of your initial draft, then Brown.  You are very happy, too.  Even Benson is worth more this year than last and has done little to warrant it.

I do want to throw out the obvious fact that this RB you take with a 3rd round pick in initial dynasty drafts (that would normally get you a guy like Chambers) cannot be a flop.  Just ask the JJ Arrington owners.  But, which Chambers owner would not trade Chambers for Caddy or Brown?  None, I hope.

This sounds good, but how does this apply to my draft here in 2006?

I think that if you take more than one rookie RB in the first four rounds, you might be setting yourself up for the future but hurting the current year.  Also, do realize that there are rook RBs that flop most years (my pick for 2006 is Addai).

Now, let's get back to the pick that started this thought process for me, LenDale White.  If White has the exact numbers that Ronnie Brown had in 2005, and Brown leaves next offseason, what will be White's value?  I see it being equal (at least, given the previous assumption) to Willie Parker or Chester Taylor.  This means that Sholditch got a steal in this draft.

So, basically, I am trying to articulate that I think that rookie RBs in dynasty drafts are very good value in the long run as long as you can avoid the bust.

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So to sum it up, you're saying that rookie RB's are usually very good values (3rd to 6th rounds)

2nd year backs that played well could be overvalued and will likely disappoint after being taken in the 1st or 2nd. Finally, after disappointing the previos year, 3rd year backs can be had at a very good value. I agree 100% and think that getting either of the Jones' are perfect examples of this idea.

Great thoughts wannabee! 

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Will you check out my thread and respond.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=247114

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I have a pretty dominant fantasy team, but I don't know what to do with it.

12 team league, standard scoring, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX/1K/1DL/2LB/2DB, no ppr.

Here's my roster:

QB - Brady, E. Manning, Warner, Grossman

RB - LJ, Portis, Cadillac, McAllister, Bell, Perry, Suggs, W. Green

WR - Boldin, S. Moss, ROY, A. Johnson, Branch, B. Edwards, K-Rob, Reggie Williams

TE - McMichael, Watson, Winslow

K - Graham

DL - Schobel, Kerney

LB - Urlacher, Thurman, Tatupu, Spikes

DB - G. Wilson, Reed, Archuleta, M. Brown

I have the 3.12 and 4.12 in the rookie draft.

Off-season roster is 34, but that reduces to 32 (30 active + 2IR) for the season.

Since Edwards will probably start the season on the DL, that leaves me w/ 3 cuts to make. Who gets the axe?

My initial thought was to cut Grossman, Suggs, and Green (if I can't trade them) and forfeit 3.12 and 4.12.

Thoughts?

If I should try to trade, what position should I target? Young QB? Old WR? Stud WR?

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Don't you hate it when someone makes you a pretty good offer for one of your favorite players?

You know my team (same one I emailed you), and the offer is Matt Jones and Hargrove for a 2007 1st that looks to be #2-4, and 2008 1,2,3,4,5,6 rounds from a pretty good team.

The offeror is probably going to read this, and I don't mind, he knows I think it's a good offer, but Jones IMO has the ability to be elite.

Thoughts? Would you take an offer you consider good, when it's a player you really like? FWIW, i have MJ in another league, so I would still enjoy his success.

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Hi wannabee. I've always appreciated your opinions on here, this is a great idea. I have 7 dynasty leagues I'm in, and feel i have a great shot at the playoffs in all of them. But i have one last new league i'm doing, which drafts in late july/early august.

I have the 5th spot. I want Portis, but know he'll likely go 1.4.

First question is, do you take Jackson, Caddy, or Ronnie Brown at 1.5, and why?

Then what type of strategy would you use in the first, say, 6-8 rounds? This is a BIG money league for me ($250) 1 pt per reception league, passing TDs 4 pts, all others 6 pts. We start 1 QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 RB or WR Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D.

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I apologize if this is long, but I have been in and seen a few drafts lately and have some thoughts/ideas that worked.The very first thing I would do is to look at as many similar drafts as possible to get a feel for how it might play out. I think there is a thread in the Shark Pool with these drafts. In addition, I would study the ADP numbers to get a feel for how others value the players.

First off, unless you are wanting Bush, 1.05 is a tough spot to be. I would ask myself how bad you want Portis. If you really want him, I would suggest trading up to 1.03 (some people are passing on Alexander for Portis) for Portis and not Alexander. If the 1.03 owner is willing, this should cost you something like 1.5, 2.08, 4.08 for 1.03, 2.10, 5.02 or maybe adding 6.08 for 7.02 (or even changing the 5.02 you get back for the 6.10). I realize that you might feel that this is cheap or expensive depending on what you think of Portis. If you use the FBG pick calculator, I would expect to pay a 10% premium to move up. This means that the calculator will say the other guys benefits by 10%, which I think is fair considering the dropoff in talent in most people's mind after Portis.

If you stay put, and like Bush, you are guaranteed of having one of Portis, Alexander or Bush. Do not discout the thought that Alexander might fall to 1.05. I would put the chances at 10%, which is higher than most think.

If you feel that you do not want to pay the price to move up, I would suggest moving down. Admittedly, I am not a Caddy fan. I do like the other two. I would suggest you drop back to 1.07 or 1.08. At 1.08, assuming you like Caddy, Brown, Jackson, and even Bush, you are guaranteed one of them. By trading down, you should expect a similar 10% premium. This might mean you get a 3rd for your 4th (which is bigger than you'd think). This might mean the difference between a RB like Benson or DeAngelo Williams and one like Droughns or Dunn.

If you move down, I want to give you something else to think about. The best draft I have seen this year was from a guy who traded out of the 1st for a 2nd (2.4) and a 3rd (3.7). This draft was full of owners we all know and respect. This one guy, by trading down, had Jordan fall to him. No way that happens often, but there are a ton of RBs lumped together that one has to fall. Westbrook and DomDavis, along with Edge, Willis, and Tiki are almost always available in the 2nd round. I would only trade out of the 1st round if the 2nd rounder in return was a high 2nd rounder.

Here is the guy's roster (we start 1 qb, 1 rb, 1 wr, 1 te 3 flex) and it is ppr:

Player Bye

Holcomb, Kelly BUF QB - 8

Leftwich, Byron JAC QB - 6

Losman, J.P. BUF QB - 8

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 9

Anderson, Mike BAL RB - 7

Bennett, Michael NOS RB - 7

Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 6

Duckett, T.J. ATL RB - 5

Jones, Greg JAC RB - 6

Jordan, Lamont OAK RB - 3

Lewis, Jamal BAL RB - 7

Taylor, Fred JAC RB - 6

Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 9

Bradley, Mark CHI WR - 7

Burleson, Nate SEA WR - 5

Chambers, Chris MIA WR - 8

Engram, Bobby SEA WR - 5

Jones, Brandon TEN WR - 7

Lloyd, Brandon WAS WR - 8

McCareins, Justin NYJ WR - 9

Owens, Terrell DAL WR - 3

Wilson, Cedrick PIT WR - 4

Pollard, Marcus DET TE - 8

Witten, Jason DAL TE - 3

Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 6

Redskins, Washington WAS Def -

Two other thoughts for you that worked. Two guys used a similar strategy that paid off bigtime. One traded down one round often and received back 2007 1st rounders. For example, he gave a 5th and received a 6th and the 2007 1st. He now has a fair to decent team with 6 2007 first rounders. His roster is full of young guys with upside. The other strategy that worked out great for a guy was trading down a ton. When the draft gets into the 2nd round, people will be trying to trade up for "their guy". He would make a 10% premium and did well. For instance, if you traded from 1.05 to 1.08 and collected a 3rd for your 4th as payment. You now have a 1st, a 2nd, and two 3rds. Now, let's say you trade out of the 1st round (plus a 5th) for a 2nd and a 3rd. Now, you have two 2nds and three 3rds. You now have (2) top 20 players and (5) top 36 players. With this, you have flexibility. You could now trade (2) 3rds for a 2nd and a 4th (if you really wanted a certain player). Or, you could trade a 2nd and 6th for a 3rd and a 4th. There IS a limit to how far you can trade down and not hurt yourself. This is why you need to study the drafts and ADPs so you can guess who will be there for the trade down pick.

Closing thoughts:

a. In this league, there is a guy with LT, Portis, and Eli. But, the cost of getting LT (2nd and (2) 4ths) crippled his ability to get WRs and RB depth. He would tell you he thinks his team stinks. PPR limits the point difference between LT and say a guy like Westbrook. I would urge you to take the draft dominator, uploaded with the current projections, and input your scoring system. You will be surprised what the results look like.

b. Plan your target players two rounds ahead so nothing surprises you. This takes discipline but is worth the effort. It also allows you to evaluate your options (trade up or trade down).

c. Veteran WRs that are studs in PPR always drop. I was able to get Driver in the 8th round and Mason went in the 7th. These two will outproduce many 3rd and 4th round WRs.

I apologize for the length of this, but think it might help you as you plan for your draft.

Good Luck.

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I had a thought that I wanted to throw out. In an earlier post, sholditch was comtemplating taking Len Dale White in the 5th round of an initial dynasty draft. Which he did and it was a great pick. While thinking about this, a thought occurred to me and I had to think about it for a while. I even ran it by someone I trust and run stuff through a lot (read: TOO MUCH).

Here is the thought (I have not done the research to prove this, just throwing it out there):

A top rookie RB is usually drafted in the late 3rd to the 4th round (5th is a steal) of initial dynasty drafts, with Bush a top 10 as an exception. This is the case almost every year. Occasionally, a top RB will be drafted around the end of round 2. Caddy was drafted this high some last year. Brown was drafted in the 30s (overall picks), just about where DeAngelo Williams and Maroney are this year.

Now, let's look ahead one year. We are only talking about value, not talent. If you drafted Caddy at 2.12, to pair with LT, you are so happy because Caddy is now thought of as a top 10 RB and overall player. This is even more the case for Brown. Let's say you draft two good players in rounds one and two of your initial draft, then Brown. You are very happy, too. Even Benson is worth more this year than last and has done little to warrant it.

I do want to throw out the obvious fact that this RB you take with a 3rd round pick in initial dynasty drafts (that would normally get you a guy like Chambers) cannot be a flop. Just ask the JJ Arrington owners. But, which Chambers owner would not trade Chambers for Caddy or Brown? None, I hope.

This sounds good, but how does this apply to my draft here in 2006?

I think that if you take more than one rookie RB in the first four rounds, you might be setting yourself up for the future but hurting the current year. Also, do realize that there are rook RBs that flop most years (my pick for 2006 is Addai).

Now, let's get back to the pick that started this thought process for me, LenDale White. If White has the exact numbers that Ronnie Brown had in 2005, and Brown leaves next offseason, what will be White's value? I see it being equal (at least, given the previous assumption) to Willie Parker or Chester Taylor. This means that Sholditch got a steal in this draft.

So, basically, I am trying to articulate that I think that rookie RBs in dynasty drafts are very good value in the long run as long as you can avoid the bust.

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Thanks, Jeff. Jeff was one of the owners above that I referenced. He was the owner in our draft that was very successful at trading down. Through A TON of trading down, he had a very good draft.

Jeff's team is talented and deep. You will notice he has a stud at almost every position and is very deep at WR, even though Wayne is his WR1. Through all of these trades, Jeff put himself into a position where he was able to draft some talented, young WRs. Here is his team (Jeff, hope it is ok to post):

Brees, Drew NOS QB - 7

Croyle, Brodie KCC QB - 3

Martin, Ingle GBP QB - 6

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 9

Whitehurst, Charlie SDC QB - 3

Cobbs, Cedric DEN RB - 4

Drew, Maurice JAC RB - 6

Droughns, Reuben CLE RB - 6

Fargas, Justin OAK RB - 3

Goings, Nick CAR RB - 9

Jordan, Lamont OAK RB - 3

Ritchie, Jon FA RB - -

Taylor, Fred JAC RB - 6

Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 9

Avant, Jason PHI WR - 9

Booker, Marty MIA WR - 8

Brown, Reggie PHI WR - 9

Jurevicius, Joe CLE WR - 6

Mason, Derrick BAL WR - 7

Parker, Samie KCC WR - 3

Stallworth, Donte' NOS WR - 7

Wayne, Reggie IND WR - 6

Gates, Antonio SDC TE - 3

Hilton, Zack NOS TE - 7

Kinney, Erron TEN TE - 7

Putzier, Jeb HOU TE - 5

26 Total Players

The one thing I would like to add is that these two teams I referenced were from a league full of owners we all know, and respect, from FBG. In case you wonder why some of the players are listed twice, this league is made up of two divisions of 12 teams each with winners playing in Super Bowl. Each division has the entire player pool at its disposal.

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Don't you hate it when someone makes you a pretty good offer for one of your favorite players?

You know my team (same one I emailed you), and the offer is Matt Jones and Hargrove for a 2007 1st that looks to be #2-4, and 2008 1,2,3,4,5,6 rounds from a pretty good team.

The offeror is probably going to read this, and I don't mind, he knows I think it's a good offer, but Jones IMO has the ability to be elite.

Thoughts? Would you take an offer you consider good, when it's a player you really like? FWIW, i have MJ in another league, so I would still enjoy his success.

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A couple of things (sorry if rambling):a. Jones could be special. But, imo (differing from many), his upside is limited by Leftwich and the offense. I am a Lefwich owner but he limits the upside of Jones, and the lot, for a few reasons. The include: injury (and Garrard at the helm, BL looking to run instead of forcing it to his top guy like we love the QBs of our fantasy WRs to do, the way BL spreads the ball around, and the Jags offense as a whole. The drafting of Lewis (not to mention the red zone looks of Wilford) will also limit, to an extent, the red zome looks of jones. The Jags are a rushing team, plain and simple. This alone will limit the upside of any and all of the Jag WRs. Also, Leftwich spread the ball around a bunch, when he did not throw it to Smith. There are many reasons why for which we could guess, but none really make Jones more valuable.

b. Jimmy Smith has received the majority of the targets the last few years. But, other than Smith's targets, the targets are evenly distributed. The good news is that the Jags have about (and sometimes) more than 300 WR targets per year, with Smith getting close to half. The bad thing for Jag WR owners is the low production per target of Smith. Was this because of his declining skills due to age? Maybe. But, I would not count on Jones a. getting Smith amount of targets and b. producing more per target because Jones is a physical freak.

I know absolutely zero about IDP, so Hargrove has no meaning to me (like the wife asking for help with housework - another language).

I would encourage you to check out the links below about the targets and Smith's production. I do think Jones is a freak, but I cannot see him as a guaranteed must start WR2, or better, like we all wish he would.

Target info:

http://www.footballguys.com/teampage-jax-2.php

Smith Stats:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/1236

In the end, I would take an offer I think is a good offer even if it is potentially trading away a player I loved and thought could be special. The thing to remember is that next year's rookie class is much stronger than this one.

Hope this helps.

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Second year dyansty. Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX(RB/WR/TE)

My team

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers

JP Loseman

RB

Larry Johnson

Willie Parker

Duce Staley

Onterio Smith

WR

Chris Chambers

Hines Ward

Roy Williams

Lee Evans

Brandon Jones

Charles Rogers

Chris Henry

TE

Randy McMichael

Bubba Franks

DEF

Bills

Bucs

I currently own the 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03 picks in the upcoming rookie draft. I have a couple of questions regarding my picks. If I stay where I am at I think that I am best off going:

1.01 - Bush

1.02 - Vernon Davis

1.03 - Maroney/Williams

However, I was offered 1.05 and Eli Manning for 1.01 and Philip Rivers. Is this a good trade for me to make? If so should I go as follows in the rookie draft:

1.02 Williams/Maroney

1.03 Vernon Davis

1.05 Best RB left

Thanks

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Second year dyansty.  Start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX(RB/WR/TE)

My team

QB

Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers

JP Loseman

RB

Larry Johnson

Willie Parker

Duce Staley

Onterio Smith

WR

Chris Chambers

Hines Ward

Roy Williams

Lee Evans

Brandon Jones

Charles Rogers

Chris Henry

TE

Randy McMichael

Bubba Franks

DEF

Bills

Bucs

I currently own the 1.01, 1.02, and 1.03 picks in the upcoming rookie draft.  I have a couple of questions regarding my picks.  If I stay where I am at I think that I am best off going:

1.01 - Bush

1.02 - Vernon Davis

1.03 - Maroney/Williams

However, I was offered 1.05 and Eli Manning for 1.01 and Philip Rivers.  Is this a good trade for me to make?  If so should I go as follows in the rookie draft:

1.02 Williams/Maroney

1.03 Vernon Davis

1.05 Best RB left

Thanks

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First of all, you have a good team and your weakness is depth, especially at RB. What I am about to say will probably be what you do not want to hear. Sorry. But, it will be what increases value of your picks and players.a. You should NOT do that deal. 1.01 is worth much, much more than Eli (assuming Rivers is about equal to 1.05). Bush is worth a TON. I might be in the minority here, but I think the fair trade would be 1.03 plus Rivers for Eli and 1.05.

b. Your picks should all three be RBs. Obviously, Bush is 1.01. I would say that Maroney and DeAngelo Williams should be 1.02 and 1.03, unles you are unusually high on either Addai or LenDale White. Please trust me when I tell you that these three RBs are worth more, at this time, than Davis. McMichael is a decent TE that can allow you to pick and choose your spot to upgrade the position. If you are real high on Davis trade down to 1.04 or 1.05, and pick up value along the way, and grab Davis at that pick. You should be able to do a trade like the one I described in the last sentence of point A.

Please look at the above posts in this thread about the value of rookie RBs increasing for a year. Do not underestimate the chance to grab the three rookie RBs. I think this adds the most value to your team.

c. The value of these 1.01-1.03 picks are worth much more than you realize, imo. Please check out some old threads (esp. from The Undercover Brotha, et al). The value of each of these picks will rise when the camp hype begins next month. But, in those threads, I saw established very good RBs were traded for 1.02 or 1.03. With this, I assume the same would be true for TE and QB. I would assume you might be able to get any QB and maybe any TE for 1.02 or 1.03 and still get something else thrown in.

Hope this helps.

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OK, playing around with the DD the past cuple weeks and wondered if you could give some advice to me. I have a coule of issues I'm trying to sort through right now. I've run a couple of mock drafts so far and have mixed feelings about the team I've assembled after about the first 7 rounds.

We are a 12-team, 1-2 player keeper, redraft league (where teams are allowed to retain up to two players from there previous year's squad, only 1 per skill position, ie., QB, RB, REC (WR and TEs combined), K, and DEF). Teams give up the draft position +1 Round for their one or two keepers. Keeper players are eligible from the fourth round on.

We are no PPR, but score 0.5 pts/10 yards - combined rush/receive yards, 1 pt/30 yds passing, 3 pts/TD. We have 14 position rosters and start 1 QB, 1-2 RBs, 3-4 RECs, 1 K, 1 DEF.

Keepers aren't required to be announced until August 11th, one week before our Draft, however, most of the choices are logical, so have been going with best case scenario for the DD. We also pick our draft position each year. There is a priority system for this, as the Tidy Bowl winner (actually the 5th Place winner) get the first choice of where they want to pick from). Right now I'm sitting at 1.04. We use a serpentine draft system.

OK, back to keepers for a minute. Right now, this is where keepers will be in the draft order as best as I can pre-plan at this moment:

3.04 Larry Fitz (me)

4.07 Boldin

4.09 Dunn (me)

4.10 R. Brown

4.12 Steve Smith

5.01 Hasselbeck

5.02 W. Parker

5.07 Burress

5.08 L. Johnson (SOD last year)

5.11 Chambers

6.03 Brady

6.06 Caddy Williams

7.05 S. Moss

8.04 F. Taylor

8.07 Vick

8.10 TJ Housh

10.04 C. Palmer

11.05 C. Taylor

11.12 T. Jones

12.11 Delhomme

13.08 Indy Def.

So right now If I don't change me draft slot, I'm sitting with pick 1.04, 2.09, 3.04 (Fitzgerald), 4.09 (Dunn), 5.04, 6.09, 7.04, 8.09, 9.04, 10.09, 11.04, 12.09, 13.04, 14.09. As you can see there is some good value in the middle rounds of our draft.

My basic strategy right now is take the best RB and the best REC available in Rounds 1 and 2, try for Bledsoe, Plummer or Green, (maybe Brooks) Round 5 or 6, no K or Def until after Round 9, and fill out the rest of my roster with RBs and RECs, and 1 backup QB.

First I'm wondering if it's worth it's worth it to move down in the first round (maybe at 1.07 or 1.08 to try to get maybe a S. Jackson and pair him with a top 3 REC in the second round, or stay at pick number 1.0 and go with either Barber or Portis, the two I see going in these places for our league, and hope someone out of the top 5 RECs drops to me late in the second.. Typically, owners in my league try to fill out their starting requirements before picking up backups. So I've mocked it that way, from the 1.04 spot, and it looks like I may be able to snag Holt or possibly Harrison in the second round, but nothing is for sure, more likely it's looking like D. Jackson (injury ??) or H. Ward. It may be more possible to snag a C. Johnson or T. Owens in the 2nd round if I bump down in the 1st. I know I'm also giving up the potential for Portis or Barber's scoring to land a better receiver. I've consulted the Trade Value application on FBGs and it says don't trade out. But I'm concerned about the kind of REC I will have choice of in the second if I stay put. On the otherhand, I really like the potential of Porrtis or Barber as my number 1 RB...so I'm really torn....

Also, I'm wondering, if I do decide to move down, what should I look for in return (i.e, what round(s) should I target in trade)? I really want to keep both Fitz and Dunn because I believe I've already gained preety good value.

Just looking for some advice if you have the time. Thanks...

BF

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This is a 6 player keeper league with 4 Vet. and any 2 rookies.

Can not keep any player drafted in the 1st or 2nd round except for rookies.

Starters 1 QB, 2 RB's, 3 WR's, 1TE

Non keepers from 1st two rounds. LT, SA, Edge, Dillon, R. Moss, P. Manning, M. Harrison, A. Green, C-pepper, TO, C-Martin, H. Wards, D. Jackson, & P. Holmes.

My Team:

QB Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex D. Smith,

RB Kevan Barlow, De'Shaun Foster, Ciatrick Fason, M. Barber,

WR Chad Johnson, Rod Smith, Brandon Stokley, Roy Williams,

TE Antonio Gates,

His team

QB Eli Manning

RB Domanick Davis, Tatum Bell, Warrick Dunn, Frank Gore

WR Javon Walker, Ashley Lelie, Deion Branch, Key Johnson, Troy Williamson,

TE Heath Miller, Todd Heap

I have been offered a trade Dunn & Walker for Williams and my 4.02 or he offered Davis instead of Dunn but then I give him my 2.02.

Which trade do you like better or should I just stay with what I have.

My current keepers are Foster, CJ, Williams & Gates.

If I make the trade which player would you keep over Foster or Gates.

I have tried to trade Foster but have had no luck even tried to trade him for a late 3rd round pick with no takers, am I asking to much for him.

You repled to my other post but wanted more Info, I hope this is enough.

Thanks

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In odd rounds my pick is at 9 and even it is at 2 we do a snake draft. No PPR. I would take Dunn for my 4.02 but Walker I am afraid of because of the knee but I would be able to keep walker forever.

Also would you draft Harrison at 1.09 or go with one of the RB's which I think both Green and Martin will still be there but one of them might make it back to me at 2.02.

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you answered my post previously but i wanted to revisit. i'm in a 8 team keeper league. i currently have SA and LJ and have veteran picks 8,9 and 12 and have been offered veterans pick #1 (overall) and pick #17. w/ #1 overall i would take manning and probably a wide receiver at pick #17. but does it make sense to make this deal? or would you stay put,take hass (or brady),marvin harrison and maybe holt or chadj? we start 2 qb's and i have tons of man love for peyton,he took me to the title last year but i just wonder if i'm overpaying? (qb scoring- 6 pts per td and 1 pt per 20 yds passing)

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i have thought about grabbing 2 qb's but wr's td's count for 8 pts so i'm trying to maximize the picks. i usually trade back so i could potentially do that again this year.

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on a side note,i gotta know,is that you in the avatar? i've seen that for years and always wondered....

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I would like to discuss where to take Gates in initial dynasty drafts.

When I run my draft dominator for most leagues, Gates rates in the 20s of overall picks. I have seen many times where he goes much later. But, the data (projections) we get are for redraft, not dynasty. This is something to remember.

But, I think Gates should go much higher in TE required leagues, especially ones that give TE premium scoring. In most of the drafts I have seen, I see Gates going after 15+ RBs (including FWP, Tiki, etc), and after 6-7 WRs.

In the past, Gates has proven to be more valuable than most of the WRs and many of the RBs drafted before him, especially in a dynasty draft. He is still young. He turned 26 years old yesterday. Here are his stats:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396811

In a PPR league, his stats the last two years are above some of the WRs taken before him, which is shocking. Also, the turnover at the top of the WR rankings is high, while the turnover at TE is low.

I want everyone to think about what having the 5-10 extra points a game at TE would do to their team. If you go RB in the first round, could you RBBC your RB2 position and get close to the same production as you would if you drafted a WIllis McGahahee? Now, think about your positional matchups each week while you start Gates and your opponent start Stevens or Pollard or Wiggins.

I can understand the argument that the addition of Rivers (or loss of Brees if you will) will hurt Gates' production. But, I cannot see much affect. I would be much more worried if the Chargers brought in a decent WR, but they had one leave (Caldwell). So, the lack of competition for catches is still there.

Conclusion:

Gates should be considered in the top 20 picks of every initial dynasty draft, even higher in PPR leagues. Many teams hurting at TE, with depth at other positions would gladly trade Willis or Boldin for Gates, but still they are being drafted well before Gates. Also, think about how much turnover there has been in the top 20 players over the last couple of years, yet Gates has been consistent.

Thoughts?

ETA: In another thread, a poster is asking who to keep CJohnson or Gates. Think about that. The WR drafted as the WR1 or WR2 in almost every draft is considered close (or even) with Gates, yet Gates routinely goes a full round later.

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I would like to discuss where to take Gates in initial dynasty drafts.

When I run my draft dominator for most leagues, Gates rates in the 20s of overall picks.  I have seen many times where he goes much later.  But, the data (projections) we get are for redraft, not dynasty.  This is something to remember.

But, I think Gates should go much higher in TE required leagues, especially ones that give TE premium scoring.  In most of the drafts I have seen, I see Gates going after 15+ RBs (including FWP, Tiki, etc), and after 6-7 WRs.

In the past, Gates has proven to be more valuable than most of the WRs and many of the RBs drafted before him, especially in a dynasty draft.  He is still young.  He turned 26 years old yesterday.  Here are his stats:

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/396811

In a PPR league, his stats the last two years are above some of the WRs taken before him, which is shocking.  Also, the turnover at the top of the WR rankings is high, while the turnover at TE is low.

I want everyone to think about what having the 5-10 extra points a game at TE would do to their team.  If you go RB in the first round, could you RBBC your RB2 position and get close to the same production as you would if you drafted a WIllis McGahahee?  Now, think about your positional matchups each week while you start Gates and your opponent start Stevens or Pollard or Wiggins.

I can understand the argument that the addition of Rivers (or loss of Brees if you will) will hurt Gates' production.  But, I cannot see much affect.  I would be much more worried if the Chargers brought in a decent WR, but they had one leave (Caldwell).  So, the lack of competition for catches is still there.

Conclusion:

Gates should be considered in the top 20 picks of every initial dynasty draft, even higher in PPR leagues.  Many teams hurting at TE, with depth at other positions would gladly trade Willis or Boldin for Gates, but still they are being drafted well before Gates.  Also, think about how much turnover there has been in the top 20 players over the last couple of years, yet Gates has been consistent.

Thoughts?

ETA:  In another thread, a poster is asking who to keep CJohnson or Gates.  Think about that.  The WR drafted as the WR1 or WR2 in almost every draft is considered close (or even) with Gates, yet Gates routinely goes a full round later.

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I agree that Gates seems to be undervalued in dynasty drafts. I think that once teams are put together, his values goes up for whatever reason, probably becuase his owners realize the value he brings to their team. He is #1 at his position by far and is very hard to attain, especially in a PPR TE required.That brings me to another point to follow up wannabee's topic, I think Gates is undervalued even more in leagues that don't require a TE. In one of my leagues (PPR, no TE req) Gates was the #9 WR/TE. He outscored WRs like Ward, Wayne and Plax and was only outscored by the following WRs: Smith, Fitz, CJ, Holt, Boldin, SMoss, Harrison, and Chambers. So, as wannabee points out, Gates provides very good value in the late 2nd or early 3rd of start up drafts, he can be had even cheap in non TE leagues.

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In odd rounds my pick is at 9 and even it is at 2 we do a snake draft. No PPR. I would take Dunn for my 4.02 but Walker I am afraid of because of the knee but I would be able to keep walker forever.

Also would you draft Harrison at 1.09 or go with one of the RB's which I think both Green and Martin will still be there but one of them might make it back to me at 2.02.

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OK, playing around with the DD the past cuple weeks and wondered if you could give some advice to me.  I have a coule of issues I'm trying to sort through right now.  I've run a couple of mock drafts so far and have mixed feelings about the team I've assembled after about the first 7 rounds.

We are a 12-team, 1-2 player keeper, redraft league (where teams are allowed to retain up to two players from there previous year's squad, only 1 per skill position, ie., QB, RB, REC (WR and TEs combined), K, and DEF). Teams give up the draft position +1 Round for their one or two keepers. Keeper players are eligible from the fourth round on.

We are no PPR, but score 0.5 pts/10 yards -  combined rush/receive yards, 1 pt/30 yds passing, 3 pts/TD.  We have 14 position rosters and start 1 QB, 1-2 RBs, 3-4 RECs, 1 K, 1 DEF.

Keepers aren't required to be announced until August 11th, one week before our Draft, however, most of the choices are logical, so have been going with best case scenario for the DD.  We also pick our draft position each year.  There is a priority system for this, as the Tidy Bowl winner (actually the 5th Place winner) get the first choice of where they want to pick from).  Right now I'm sitting at 1.04.  We use a serpentine draft system.

OK, back to keepers for a minute.  Right now, this is where keepers will be in the draft order as best as I can pre-plan at this moment:

3.04 Larry Fitz (me)

4.07 Boldin

4.09 Dunn (me)

4.10 R. Brown

4.12 Steve Smith

5.01 Hasselbeck

5.02 W. Parker

5.07 Burress

5.08 L. Johnson (SOD last year)

5.11 Chambers

6.03 Brady

6.06 Caddy Williams

7.05 S. Moss

8.04 F. Taylor

8.07 Vick

8.10 TJ Housh

10.04 C. Palmer

11.05 C. Taylor

11.12 T. Jones

12.11 Delhomme

13.08 Indy Def.

So right now If I don't change me draft slot, I'm sitting with pick 1.04, 2.09, 3.04 (Fitzgerald), 4.09 (Dunn), 5.04, 6.09, 7.04, 8.09, 9.04, 10.09, 11.04, 12.09, 13.04, 14.09.  As you can see there is some good value in the middle rounds of our draft.

My basic strategy right now is take the best RB and the best REC available in Rounds 1 and 2, try for Bledsoe, Plummer or Green, (maybe Brooks) Round 5 or 6, no K or Def until after Round 9, and fill out the rest of my roster with RBs and RECs, and 1 backup QB.

First I'm wondering if it's worth it's worth it to move down in the first round (maybe at 1.07 or 1.08 to try to get maybe a S. Jackson and pair him with a top 3 REC in the second round, or stay at pick number 1.0 and go with either Barber or Portis, the two I see going in these places for our league, and hope someone out of the top 5 RECs drops to me late in the second..  Typically, owners in my league try to fill out their starting requirements before picking up backups.  So I've mocked it that way, from the 1.04 spot, and it looks like I may be able to snag Holt or possibly Harrison in the second round, but nothing is for sure, more likely it's looking like D. Jackson (injury ??) or H. Ward.  It may be more possible to snag a C. Johnson or T. Owens in the 2nd round if I bump down in the 1st.  I know I'm also giving up the potential for Portis or Barber's scoring to land a better receiver. I've consulted the Trade Value application on FBGs and it says don't trade out.  But I'm concerned about the kind of REC I will have choice of in the second if I stay put.  On the otherhand, I really like the potential of Porrtis or Barber as my number 1 RB...so I'm really torn....

Also, I'm wondering, if I do decide to move down, what should I look for in return (i.e, what round(s) should I target in trade)?  I really want to keep both Fitz and Dunn because I believe I've already gained preety good value.

Just looking for some advice if you have the time.  Thanks...

BF

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This has a lot to cover. As you can tell, I will post something then have a follow up thought, or three. So, here it goes:The small roster requirements make the surefire starters even more important. Staying away from RBBC, and handcuffs is beneficial.

My initial thoughts are that, since it is not ppr and yardage is only .05 per 10 yds (even though your post says .5, I assume it is .05), I would prefer Portis to Tiki by a good ways for this year. If I knew I was getting Portis, I would stay at 1.04. If I knew I was getting Tiki, I would trade up or down, if possible. I do not see Tiki getting the TDs he had last year.

Now, how to trade down. I am sure there are guys in your league that are willing to trade up if they know it is possible. Here is a decent tool (do not use as actual, but as a guide): http://www.kffl.com/draftanalyzer/ . It is the only one that handles keepers that I know of. I'd contact directly the guys at 1.01 and 1.02 if I want to trade up, or post on league message board that you are taking offers to trade down. There is usually one owner that will overpay for his guy. Just need to flesh him out.

Now, who to target. I would look at Jackson due to the TDs. The question is: how far does he drop? Only you can judge that. I do have some other ideas that may or may not apply:

a. if you do not like your options, trade down to the corner 1.12/2.01 (or close to it) and go WR/WR there. In addition, you should be able to pick up another pick along the way, like a 4th or 5th, that you can use on a RB. But, I was looking at the thought of you having Fitz, TO, and CJohnson with Dunn after 4 rounds. Then, along with the extra pick, you should draft a couple of RBs in next two rounds. This is a risky strategy that could pay off huge only if you got the right RBs.

b. One of my strategies, in almost every league, is to underdraft defense, kicker, backup TE, and maybe backup QB - assuming the league does not prohibit such practices and the waiver does not cost money. If I employ this strategy, here is how I do it. I do not draft a defense or kicker, if possible. I draft one decent TE, and try to find a QB with a late bye week. This allows me the preseason to see how the kickers and defenses are looking. A few of each always come out of no where anyway and this allows me to take a chance on a backup RB/WR with upside to stash away in case of injury to starter and gives me longer to see how certain RBBC situations will play out. I would be drafting a defense and kicker real late anyway so it does not hurt my choices any. The top tier choices of each are already gone. Also, if I have a QB with a late bye, and it is on a good passing team, I prefer his backup to a random QB. For instance, last year, I drafted Palmer in a redraft. He had bye week 10. I chose Kitna as my backup because the QBs left to be my backup fluctuated a ton during the season and I would prefer Kitna starting to Harrington or Grossman, etc. Also, this all assumes a 12 team league meaning you can find the kicker or defense or QB when needed. Also, I try to always carry only one kicker and one defense when all possible. If you draft a Brooks or Plummer, I might choose to use the backup slot on Walter or Cutler, if possible, for a couple of reasons. The one above ( with Palmer/Kitnas as the example) because both offenses should be decent. And, if Walter or Cutler get time and stay the starter (you will not necessarily need the veteran QB anyway if the youngster is starting), you could have a 10th round keeper next year ... or great trade value. Another combo would be Warner/Leinart with the same principle.

c. Since it looks like the rookie RBs are not drafted high, I assume due to the small rosters and only needing to start one RB, I might look for White later on in the draft or Benson in 6th if he is there. Also, if you choose to go with a couple of QBs, another value play might be Vince Young late. It seems that your scoring system favors running QBs.

d. Another idea would be to look to move up to a top two spot to grab either Alexander or LT. You might ask what it would cost. Those guys are more valuable than we give them credit for because they have each played almost every game for years on years.

e. Trading up or down, and what you could expect. Here are some random thoughts of what I think might be fair without consulting a calculator (trading up and down).

1.04 and 5.04 for 1.07 and 4.07

1.04, 2.09, and 7.04 for 1.10, 2.03, and 5.10

1.04, 2.09, and 6.09 for 1.02, 2.11, and 7.02

f. Other guys I like deep into these drafts: Marion barber (another Julius injury propels MB3 into big value), Michael Turner (handcuff to oft-used LT plus FA after this season), Dillon (prob will hold off Maroney longer than we fantasy guys want/expect), Gado, Calhoun (nothing is settled when KJones is around), Duckett (givn the scoring system, and Wilford (he catches a ton of TDs).

I will try to add more later as I think on this situation further. Hope this helps so far.

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Since I've been asked to  (same league mentioned above) and gotta moment to spare, a few thoughts on dynasty strategy for consideration.



WIN NOW & WIN LATER - Too many are lulled into the "build for the future" mentality, taking all or mostly youth picks over proven vets. Sorry to burst a few bubbles, but losing still sucks! Think about team balance between youth and experienced. It's okay to pick up CuMar as long as you understand he's not a RB1 for your squad & probably won't have more than a couple years left. (Team balance can also apply to the makeup of your roster. Like having all RBs with no WRs to speak off. You need a complete FF team to win championships.)



DYNASTY TIME - So what do you believe is the overall success, in years, you are building your team for? First, a large number of dynasty leagues have a 3-5 year life span. Especially new ones.  (See the "WIN NOW" strategy) Second, how far can you comfortably predict player success & value into the future? 2 years? 3? IMO, 3 years is about the limit. Too many variables, too few players can maintain a high level of production. Watch out for keeping development players too long. A WR thats had 10 catches in the 3 years you have been stashing him has outlived his usefullness. Trade him or cut him & MOVE ON.



VERSATILITY - Too many teams are built on a position. Great RBs, so-so WRs or Hording QBs, but no TE or DEF worth speaking of. A good FF squad adapts to adversity (like injuries) and continues to win. Build all aspects of your squad equally or as close to equal as you can. You never know when your DEF, TE, or K is gonna pull out a tight win for you. Neglecting the lesser positions just weakens your ability to win.

UNDERSTAND THE RULES - Too many (present company included) draft without reading the leagues rules, especially scoring. Don't do it!



TRUST YOUR JUDGEMENT,BUT NOT YOUR EGO - When drafting, plan the overall makeup of your squad (read those rules!), run mocks, set-up the tools to assist you during the draft, learn as much as you can about your opponents (thank you FBG), then trust your judgement. However, do not let your ego ("I know how to draft!") guide you to making bad decisions. We can always learn new tricks, IF we are looking for them.



ONLY THE LEAD DOG'S VIEW CHANGES - Don't get cought up in player runs during a draft! So what if RB 20 is gone! Go away from the runs; MOF, starting them is best. Draft the best player available to fill your roster.  Just as long as you keep the team balance principle in mind.

ROOKIES: LOOK FOR WHAT COUNTS - Heart, hard work ethic, head screwed on right, and a good opportunity to succeed. Talent is important, but let's face facts. All drafted or signed players in the NFL have great talent or they wouldn't be there; most of us are not pro scouts & we only get part of the story from the pros; great talent without common sense usually means a waste. See Chris Henry or quite few others like him. If your squad needs a RB, then really do your homework on the rookie RBs. Listen/read interviews, check out their college websites, read blogs, ask questions! Don't rely strictly on the talking heads (Kiper, etc.) - DO YOUR OWN WORK! Right or wrong(learn from these mistakes), you will enjoy FF more for it.

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In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now.  We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.

I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63).  I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.

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Most of this was from another post above, but I thought I would separate it out for ease to read:

One of my strategies, in almost every redraft league, is to underdraft defense, kicker, backup TE, and maybe backup QB - assuming the league does not prohibit such practices and the waiver does not cost money. If I employ this strategy, here is how I do it. I do not draft a defense or kicker, if possible. I draft one decent TE, and try to find a QB with a late bye week. This allows me the preseason to see how the kickers and defenses are looking. A few of each always come out of no where anyway and this allows me to take a chance on a backup RB/WR with upside to stash away in case of injury to starter and gives me longer to see how certain RBBC situations will play out. I would be drafting a defense and kicker real late anyway so it does not hurt my choices any. The top tier choices of each position are already gone. Also, if I have a QB with a late bye, and it is on a good passing team, I prefer his backup to a random QB. For instance, last year, I drafted Palmer in a redraft. He had bye week 10. I chose Kitna as my backup because the QBs left to be my backup fluctuated a ton during the season and I would prefer Kitna starting to Harrington or Grossman, etc.

Also, assuming a 12 team league, you can find a waiver kicker or defense or QB when needed to cover the bye weeks as long as you pick the desired player up one week before needed. Also, I try to always carry only one kicker and one defense when all possible. If you draft a Brooks or Plummer, I might choose to use the backup slot on Walter or Cutler, if possible, for a couple of reasons. The one above (with Palmer/Kitna as the example) because both offenses should be decent. Other combos that would do well are Bulger/Frerotte and Warner/Leinart with the same principle. Lastly, this strategy helps because you can get your backup QB with last pick because few will draft Walter in a 12 team redraft.

Thoughts?

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Follow-up to an earlier question:

I'm trying to work out a possible trade for Chad Johnson. The other owner is my sister, so I'm only interested in making a trade that's mutually beneficial.

12 team league, standard scoring, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLEX/1K/1DL/2LB/2DB, no ppr.

My roster:

QB - Brady, E. Manning, Warner, Grossman

RB - LJ, Portis, Cadillac, McAllister, Bell, Perry, Suggs, W. Green

WR - Boldin, S. Moss, ROY, A. Johnson, Branch, B. Edwards, K-Rob, Reggie Williams

TE - McMichael, Watson, Winslow

K - Graham

DL - Schobel, Kerney

LB - Urlacher, Thurman, Tatupu, Spikes

DB - G. Wilson, Reed, Archuleta, M. Brown

Her team:

QB - Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, Campbell

RB - Tomlinson, R. Brown, T. Jones, Moats, Staley, Davenport, Fason

WR - C. Johnson, Ward, Muhammad, Jenkins, Holmes, Randle El, Stokley, Chatman, Greg Lewis

TE - L.J. Smith, Troupe

K - Kaeding

DL - Peppers, Bernard

LB - A. Davis, Farrior, Al Wilson, Crowell

DB - Sanders, Gamble, Thomas Davis, B. Scott

Is a trade of Santana Moss and Deion Branch fair value for Chad Johnson? She's also interested in Ed Reed. Moss, Branch, and Reed for CJ? For reference (those unfamiliar w/ IDP), Reed is a mid-level DB1. His FBG dynasty ranking is DB7 overall. His worth is probably comparable to Muhsin Muhammad, I'd think. He'd be a decent upgrade over Gamble, I think.

Is this trade good for me? Good for her?

Thanks.

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got another one for you, the LT owner came to me today asking if I was interested. i have SA and LJ and he's looking for 1 of the 2,mainly LJ. scoring format is: 8pts per rushing td,1 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards and 8 pts per recieving td. i know the KC o-line is getting ancient but is rivers going to have an adverse effect on LT? it seems like a counterproductive deal to me but just wanted another opinion.. thanks in advance.. happy belated fathers day..

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