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I've got all my plays in already, I'm probably going to stay away from parlays. If I could turn back the clock I would parlay a bunch of things instead of straight plays on all the chalk but the books that allow me to parlay have horrific lines on the favorites.
I haven't been this excited for a sporting event in a looong time.
Not quite the Super Bowl but I'm setting up like it is.
UFC 100 >>> Super Bowl for me.
Not a surprise.sheerterror said:
I have a ton in action too, and am trying to figure out why. I'm thinking i have about $1500 in play, which is way, way more than i should have. I think what happened is that these lines have been up for 4 months, and i know i have been dabbling everyonce in awhile. And i am pretty nervous about the card with this, but i am in line with almost every one of Performity's picks, and everybody else. I disagree with him on Hendo, and i didn't have too much of an opinion on Gugarty. As long as nothing freaky happens, it should be alright.and those lines at sportsbook have gone truly insane. I added to Lesnar about 2 days ago when he was -210, and he is -270. I took Bonner last night at -325 and he is now -500. Crazy movement for these lines.
Just my opinion here, but i think Hendo-Bisping will be closer and Hendo isn't a top bet for the night. I certainly don't think he is a sure thing at all. Like Sheer, i got Bisping at +300 awhile ago, and I am not sold on him winning this fight, but I do not think Hendo is guaranteed by any means. I think trying some of those underdog bets might be better plays then laying all that on Hendo. if you spread 4.3 units between Belcher, O'Brien, and Grant i think you will at least hit one of those (hopefuly). just my 2 centsand i really think i have read everything i can about these fights, but one thing i have not heaard much about with the Bisping-Hendo fight is the fact that Rampage has trained with Bisping for over a year now (i think), and Rampage did very well against Hendo and knows him pretty well. Any effect on the fight with this?I'm sure I won't, just hoping Performify has a good night
well, in my opinion Lesnar, Fitch, Bonner, and GSP are pretty close to locks. I agree, laying 9 units, and my guess is Perfomity's units are $100, is a lot. Like i think i mentioned earlier, taking some of those dogs, which have a significant chance of winning, is a lot less risk with probably more reward. But he seems to have done well for himself for some time, so he must be doing it pretty well. Not for me i don't think, but i also have a pretty crappy unit system for all non-NFL betting that i need to work on. Also, he has a pretty good tutorial for MMA betting (basically for any betting ML's) that probably explains it pretty well:http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where-and-h...bet-mma-now.mma
Sorry I missed this yesterday Mo. Here's my take:It absolutely sucks to have your big play, your biggest, best feel on the card nullified by losing two flyers. It's happened to me several times, and it really is a #### feeling. If you feel as strong about GSP as it seems like you do, no reason to make sure that no matter what happens, as long as he wins, you are making money. Given the juice on the GSP fight, I'd guess your most reasonable way of enacting this strategy would be to hedge off of Belcher and Grant a little - which shouldn't be too hard since you likely beat the line movement on both of those guys. Adding more to GSP will be fine if/when he wins, but if he loses, because of that juice, the hit will be that much greater. I think what I said makes sense, I'm tired and kind of rambling.modogg said:
I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration.
i completely agree. all i can think of is Hughes-Gracie from a few years ago.I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration.
thanks. I will probably do a little of both, since the GSP line mysteriously dropped to -245 today. I can't remember a card where i was so off predicting the line movements. I really don't know where the lines will move as the fights get closer, and i can't tell if it is public money moving the lines or the sportsbooks over-reacting to bets. Bonner is at -365 now, And Lesnar and GSP are both around -240, strange stuff. but what you said makes sense. I really do think GSP is the #1 P4P guy (whatever that is worth, always has been a bit of a dumb thing). But i could end up crying like a little girl tonight if quite a few of these don't pan out.
Whats the payout on a hit here? I don't ever put any action on these cards but I follow this damn sport enough and make enough predictions -- I can see myself hopping in with one parlay per card just for fun. As stated, no action... But I like all the favorites , other than Danzig and Belcher who I think will upset. So, for a grand total of 0u, I'm going:GriceDollowayKim JonesDanzig with the upset BonnerBelcher with the upset FitchHenderson GSPLesnar
I don't have a problem laying 9 to 4 with a big edge but I'm not getting the money management on betting the live dogs. .2 units? Seriously? What kind of miniscule edge is he betting here?
Odds changed a little bit since I put it in, but $20 is paying $950ish.BTW, glad to see you agree on Bonnar, Fitch, GSP and Lenar.
I can't answer for him, but I can speak for myself in saying that it sucks when you think you've identified a live dog and you play it big(ger than you should), it loses and you NEED a big play to hit just to cancel out your flyer.
that is one thing about tonight, i think either most of us have a real good night, or we won't since most of the picks around here are on the same way. Only one that seems to go either way is Bisping-Hendo. And man, i went to fix up some bets this afternoon, got on sportsbook, put them in, and spilled water on my laptop
. I jsut got it working, checked and they removed the whole undercard. i may toss a little more on GSP and Brock, and go from there. my total card is pretty crazy tonight and we have pretty much the same card (except my GSP picks).
Yeah, all 3 of the main fights moved. Thank you Bisping fans for bringing Hendo down a bit. I got a little excited when i originally grabbed Bisping (and must have had a good night or 2) because i have $190 on Bisping at +300. Grabbing a little on Hendo at -210 is a nice way of ensuring some money falls through the cracks.
well, i was wrong about Bisping. Will be able to make up the little i lost though loading up on Anderson Silva to beat up Dan pretty good. You figure Bisping would have stopped circling left after he got clipped a few times, but oh well.modogg said:Just my opinion here, but i think Hendo-Bisping will be closer and Hendo isn't a top bet for the night. I certainly don't think he is a sure thing at all. Like Sheer, i got Bisping at +300 awhile ago, and I am not sold on him winning this fight, but I do not think Hendo is guaranteed by any means. I think trying some of those underdog bets might be better plays then laying all that on Hendo. if you spread 4.3 units between Belcher, O'Brien, and Grant i think you will at least hit one of those (hopefuly). just my 2 centsand i really think i have read everything i can about these fights, but one thing i have not heaard much about with the Bisping-Hendo fight is the fact that Rampage has trained with Bisping for over a year now (i think), and Rampage did very well against Hendo and knows him pretty well. Any effect on the fight with this?I'm sure I won't, just hoping Performify has a good night
. Sheer, you hit this right on the head. Unfortunately i didn't hedge Belcher and Bisping enough. Pretty sure you are hitting this right on the head, and i wish i would have listened a little better. i avoided checking any info. on the undercard, so hopefuly some of those other guys hit and we'll be good, but I should have put my whole acct. into GSP. I am very confident he wins this (just started 2nd round)
Well, Belcher was a bad beat but a heckuva bet considering how the fight went down.Lesnar was the nuts though - even laying 2 to 1.
this is the one that has me kicking myself the most tonight. I haven't seen it, and i think it is on ufc.com for free so i need to check it out. What i have read though has me thinking Bonner did not get crused, and that he lost to possible bad judging (what i read was he had a lot of submission attempts in rounds 2 and 3 that could have swayed the judges his way). still, should have looked into a llittle more. A little lazy tailing on some of these, and i should have looked a little more into this fight and the Kim-Grant fight. Oh well, could have been a lot nicer, but the big boys came through so it wasn't heart breaking.i completely agree. all i can think of is Hughes-Gracie from a few years ago.I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration.
Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a lossBonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses
I think the only time we will see GSP at anything better than -300 again is if/when he fights Anderson Silva. And after tonight's showing, I think that's likely his next opponent. He's rolled through the entire WW division completely unscathed. Fitch is a stud, as is Alves, but they are both clearly 1 or 2 steps below GSP's level. It's really interesting that for the first time since I can remember, every champion (less Brock Lesnar, whom I think can be beaten by Shane Carwin) looks like he doesn't have any legitimate competition on the horizon. I'll be pulling for Florian for sure, but if Penn beats him, he's got no one at 155 that looks to pose a legitimate threat. Diego Sanchez is not good enough IMO. GSP is not human and will have the WW title for as long as he pleases. Same can be said for Silva at MW, although I'd like to see a rematch between he and Marquardt. Machida, like GSP is not human and will hold onto that title until either Rampage can catch him with a lucky punch, or Dana White throws enough money at Silva to convince him to go against his good friend and training partner.Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a lossBonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses
VeryI think the only time we will see GSP at anything better than -300 again is if/when he fights Anderson Silva. And after tonight's showing, I think that's likely his next opponent. He's rolled through the entire WW division completely unscathed. Fitch is a stud, as is Alves, but they are both clearly 1 or 2 steps below GSP's level. It's really interesting that for the first time since I can remember, every champion (less Brock Lesnar, whom I think can be beaten by Shane Carwin) looks like he doesn't have any legitimate competition on the horizon. I'll be pulling for Florian for sure, but if Penn beats him, he's got no one at 155 that looks to pose a legitimate threat. Diego Sanchez is not good enough IMO. GSP is not human and will have the WW title for as long as he pleases. Same can be said for Silva at MW, although I'd like to see a rematch between he and Marquardt. Machida, like GSP is not human and will hold onto that title until either Rampage can catch him with a lucky punch, or Dana White throws enough money at Silva to convince him to go against his good friend and training partner.Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a lossBonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses
ETA - Rogan asking GSP if he plans on moving up in weight is testimony that things need to get shaken up. The Tier 1 guys can stay for quite some time and will hurt the 'business' end of UFC.Who's gonna pay for PPV if nobody can beat the champ(s)?
maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.Very
Love Kampmann in that fight. Surprised to see he's the dog. Swick has looked good lately, but I think MK has faced much better fighters than MS has.
I was thinking the same thing. I think the fight against Condit certainly was a big step for Kampmann. I think i will put a little on him.One that has me worried that i put money on is Nick Diaz. The guy has treated me well lately and helped my account quite a bit. But Nick does (or did) have a tendency to overloook some fights. He hasn't in a bit, but i go back to his fight against Mike Aina, that was certainly not a good Diaz there. But Nick should win this fight hands down. My worry is the line is already -290 (i think it shold be -400 or something), and it will go up. But, he has letdowns every once in awhile, so we'll see.
Love Nate in that fight man. Barring Performify putting his house on Maia, it will be a multi-unit play for me. As slick as Maia's BJJ is, give me the bigger, stronger, more well rounded guy in every fight rather than the guy who seemingly needs to "catch his opponent" in a sub as his primary path to victory. Marquardt is the Kenny Florian of the MW division - the guy gets better with every fight, but gets unnoticed because of the general public's infatuation with the dominant champ in his respective division.maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.Very
I'll be betting Florian too, albeit smallish. I love the way he fights and how he seems to get better every time he steps into the wring. You always know he's coming in to every fight in shape and with all his heart. The same cannot be said of BJ Penn, who is certainly more talented but can't be fully trusted IMO in the effort department. I think Kenny's actually got a slight edge in the striking department, and if he can keep this fight standing, he can use his reach to pick apart BJ for a round or 2, wait for him to tire and then possibly take the fight to the ground and finish him with those famous elbows. Both have great BJJ, so it will be interesting to see how this fight looks if/when it makes it to the ground. If you are backing Florian, I suggest waiting to do so. The line has gotten progressively better, and I'm sure the general betting public will continue to jump on BJ as fight time approaches. Hopefully we can sneak out +200ish.
Gimme Kampmann and Maynard all day long. I don't trust either of the Diaz brothers at those odds although they both should win. Rampage-Rashad line looks about as expected, don't know what to make of that fight yet. I've got to do more research on Overeem, but just looking over Werdum's resume, he might be worth a nice flier at that price. Interesting that the winner of Kampmann-Swick gets the next title shot against GSP - I don't think either has much of a shot. GSP -400 at a minimum against either of those two is my guess.
Very interesting!!!
He'll headline UFC 103 against Rich Franklin.
yeah the article i was reading in the "Fight" magazine made me more confident in taking Nate too. They talked a lot about his Pancrase fighting and his experience in Japan when he was younger. and i put some bets in for DREAM 10. I think i am pissing away money doing so, but i also pissed away money tailing some golf plays that look like they will be 0-6, so what the hell, why not:Manhoef +105 over Filho: one unit: until i hear Filho has received some mental health help, i don't have a ton of faith in him. the guy was really off his rocker his last few fights, and i heard Manhoef was in Brazil training BJJ for a bit, so hopefuly that works out.Vitor Shaolin +175 over Aoki: a dumb bet, not sure why i bet against Aoki, but i heard good things about "Shaolin". may hedge before the event, but at +175 it was a shot in the darkAndre Dida +130 over Kikuno for .5 unit: another dumb bet, some blind tailing here. also was thinking of putting .5 unit on JTMoney over Dong Sik Yoon because Taylor has been looking good and at +190 sounded like a good opportunity, but i read somewhere else about Yoon looking pretty good in his fight with Rampage at Pride 34, so i will probably avoid. I hear Galvao and Sakurai are pretty much locks, but i just saw they are both over -500 at this point, and i see no reason to get crazy.Love Nate in that fight man. Barring Performify putting his house on Maia, it will be a multi-unit play for me. As slick as Maia's BJJ is, give me the bigger, stronger, more well rounded guy in every fight rather than the guy who seemingly needs to "catch his opponent" in a sub as his primary path to victory. Marquardt is the Kenny Florian of the MW division - the guy gets better with every fight, but gets unnoticed because of the general public's infatuation with the dominant champ in his respective division.maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.Very
he looks a heck of a lot better then he did for the Shonnen fight, and he has a heck of a chin, so i probably may hedge a little of my bet on Manhoef. I am still am not overly confident in Filho, but if he gets Mahoef on the ground i think it won't last very long
