Jump to content
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title


Recommended Posts

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
It's a fantastic card to purchase Lump, should be some amazing fights. I really do like all of Perf's picks - with the exception of GSP over Alves, but moreso because I don't want to have to root for anyone in that fight, I just want to enjoy it. Some of the heavy chalk plays will make great parlays, so I'd recommend if you have a book (i.e. BetUs) that takes MMA parlays, to get down on that. Over the next few hours, I'm going to be racking my brain figuring out the best combination of fights to parlay to give me the best expected results. Of all the fights on the card, my highest confidence is in Lesnar and Fitch, so those 2 will be staples of all my parlays. Beyond that, I'll throw in a Henderson or Bonnar, and beef up the payout with a Belcher, Gugerty or Grant.

I've got small straight plays on Bisping at +300 (don't like himto win, but the line was wayyyy off when it came out at -500/+300), Belcher at +220 and Grant at +250 at Sportsbook for action's sake, but my big money will be going through the local where I can parlay.

I've got all my plays in already, I'm probably going to stay away from parlays. If I could turn back the clock I would parlay a bunch of things instead of straight plays on all the chalk but the books that allow me to parlay have horrific lines on the favorites.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
:thumbup:

I haven't been this excited for a sporting event in a looong time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
:thumbup:

I haven't been this excited for a sporting event in a looong time.

:goodposting:

Not quite the Super Bowl but I'm setting up like it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
:thumbup:

I haven't been this excited for a sporting event in a looong time.

:goodposting:

Not quite the Super Bowl but I'm setting up like it is.

UFC 100 >>> Super Bowl for me.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

Not a surprise.
I have a ton in action too, and am trying to figure out why. I'm thinking i have about $1500 in play, which is way, way more than i should have. I think what happened is that these lines have been up for 4 months, and i know i have been dabbling everyonce in awhile. And i am pretty nervous about the card with this, but i am in line with almost every one of Performity's picks, and everybody else. I disagree with him on Hendo, and i didn't have too much of an opinion on Gugarty. As long as nothing freaky happens, it should be alright.

and those lines at sportsbook have gone truly insane. I added to Lesnar about 2 days ago when he was -210, and he is -270. I took Bonner last night at -325 and he is now -500. Crazy movement for these lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
I doubt you will regret it!
I'm sure I won't, just hoping Performify has a good night :thumbup:
Just my opinion here, but i think Hendo-Bisping will be closer and Hendo isn't a top bet for the night. I certainly don't think he is a sure thing at all. Like Sheer, i got Bisping at +300 awhile ago, and I am not sold on him winning this fight, but I do not think Hendo is guaranteed by any means. I think trying some of those underdog bets might be better plays then laying all that on Hendo. if you spread 4.3 units between Belcher, O'Brien, and Grant i think you will at least hit one of those (hopefuly). just my 2 cents

and i really think i have read everything i can about these fights, but one thing i have not heaard much about with the Bisping-Hendo fight is the fact that Rampage has trained with Bisping for over a year now (i think), and Rampage did very well against Hendo and knows him pretty well. Any effect on the fight with this?

Edited by modogg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I don't know about this fellas. Just for fun, using $10 units, I plugged in plays based on Performity's card. In doing so, you would lay $288 to win $133.36. How is there any value there? Seems like waaaaaaaaay too much to have on the line with little potential reward and a whole lot of risk since MMA is very unpredictable. Not being critical, just curious. What am I missing here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I don't know about this fellas. Just for fun, using $10 units, I plugged in plays based on Performity's card. In doing so, you would lay $288 to win $133.36. How is there any value there? Seems like waaaaaaaaay too much to have on the line with little potential reward and a whole lot of risk since MMA is very unpredictable. Not being critical, just curious. What am I missing here?

well, in my opinion Lesnar, Fitch, Bonner, and GSP are pretty close to locks. I agree, laying 9 units, and my guess is Perfomity's units are $100, is a lot. Like i think i mentioned earlier, taking some of those dogs, which have a significant chance of winning, is a lot less risk with probably more reward. But he seems to have done well for himself for some time, so he must be doing it pretty well. Not for me i don't think, but i also have a pretty crappy unit system for all non-NFL betting that i need to work on. Also, he has a pretty good tutorial for MMA betting (basically for any betting ML's) that probably explains it pretty well:

http://mmajunkie.com/news/1500/where-and-h...bet-mma-now.mma

He has some good things in there that i wish i would start doing. I just caught it on Tuesday. I actually meant to ask anybody if they translate money lines into percentages, like he refers to quite a bit? It's a little lengthy, but i'll post it below if people don't want to click over:

Converting a Line to a Percentage

Converting allows us to establish the exact percentage chance a fighter is being given to win the fight. Converting is actually a very simple bit of math. However, it is a slightly different calculation for the favorite vs. the underdog.

For the Favorite: Amount to win $1 / (Amount to win $1 + $1) = Favorite %

Take BJ Penn (-500) vs. Jens Pulver (+400) for the Ultimate Fighter 5 finale. With Penn at -500 you would wager $500 to win $100, so $5 to win $1. Plugged in to the formula: $5 / ($5 + $1) is 5 / 6 = .83 or 83%. For the Underdog: 1 / (Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdog %

For Pulver you win $400 wagering $100. Applying that same ratio, you win $4 wagering $1. Plugging that in to the underdog formula: 1 / $4 + $1 is 1 / 5 = .20 or 20%. You will notice the two percentages add up to more than 100%. This gap in the moneyline is how the sportsbook makes its commission.

Edited by modogg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know nothing about Gugerty or Grice, but Performify likes Gugerty for a 2u play at -105, line is now -140/+110 at SB. My local mixed these up after finally putting up the undercard lines, so I grabbed Gugerty at +110 for 2u...may buy a unit off if the lines correct themselves and Grice moves to +110.

yeah i saw that too and i grabbed Gugerty for $90 (my unit system is so screwed up at this point, i have zero self-discipline with my units for this card since i have been betting on it since March and my numbers are all over the place). I looked around and it doesn't really seem that anybody is that high on him. But I also don't see anybody really high on Grice, so hopefuly Performity knows something there. and i really did just check out about 6-7 other sites with reliable picks, and there doesn't seem to be much of a lean either way.

I really am not looking to add too much unless some real value comes in the lines, but i would like to take some action on Bonner. I hate the -325, but i am pretty confident Bonner wins that one, just a lot of juice to be laying on.

http://blog.mmaratings.net/2009/07/picks-a...or-ufc-100.html

This guy is pretty solid, and he's on Bonnar very large. I agree that it's hard to lay that kind of juice on a non-elite fighter like Bonnar, but Coleman is just so one dimensional and old with an extremely limited amount of endurance - it's hard to see him win in any fashion. I think Bonnar represents excellent parlay-filler material.

I'm awaiting Performify's writeup for the main card, but as it stands right now, I'm going to end up on Brock for about a unit, in addition to a nice sized parlay of Brock along with Fitch, and then maybe some sort of combination of Brock, Fitch, Bonnar, Gugerty and possibly TJ Grant.

yeah, i was high on Bonner before, then i read that a few hours ago, and it certainly seems like a lock to me too.

and quick question for you guys. I am a little concerned i went a little heavy on bets on Belcher and Grant. Not too much, but a little bit more than maybe i would like. What is killing me about them, is that what i will win off of GSP will all be lost if both of those guys lose. i hate hedging with guys who are such large profits, so i may let it ride, so should i put more on GSP, or should i hedge Grant and Belcher a bit? i don't want to overthink this one, i think a Lesnar, Fitch, GSP, Bonner parlay will make things seem more profitable.

Sorry I missed this yesterday Mo. Here's my take:

It absolutely sucks to have your big play, your biggest, best feel on the card nullified by losing two flyers. It's happened to me several times, and it really is a #### feeling. If you feel as strong about GSP as it seems like you do, no reason to make sure that no matter what happens, as long as he wins, you are making money. Given the juice on the GSP fight, I'd guess your most reasonable way of enacting this strategy would be to hedge off of Belcher and Grant a little - which shouldn't be too hard since you likely beat the line movement on both of those guys. Adding more to GSP will be fine if/when he wins, but if he loses, because of that juice, the hit will be that much greater. I think what I said makes sense, I'm tired and kind of rambling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm tailing Performity on all but Bonnar. Leaving that fight alone.

I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration. :2cents:
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm tailing Performity on all but Bonnar. Leaving that fight alone.

I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration. :2cents:
i completely agree. all i can think of is Hughes-Gracie from a few years ago.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry I missed this yesterday Mo. Here's my take:It absolutely sucks to have your big play, your biggest, best feel on the card nullified by losing two flyers. It's happened to me several times, and it really is a #### feeling. If you feel as strong about GSP as it seems like you do, no reason to make sure that no matter what happens, as long as he wins, you are making money. Given the juice on the GSP fight, I'd guess your most reasonable way of enacting this strategy would be to hedge off of Belcher and Grant a little - which shouldn't be too hard since you likely beat the line movement on both of those guys. Adding more to GSP will be fine if/when he wins, but if he loses, because of that juice, the hit will be that much greater. I think what I said makes sense, I'm tired and kind of rambling.

thanks. I will probably do a little of both, since the GSP line mysteriously dropped to -245 today. I can't remember a card where i was so off predicting the line movements. I really don't know where the lines will move as the fights get closer, and i can't tell if it is public money moving the lines or the sportsbooks over-reacting to bets. Bonner is at -365 now, And Lesnar and GSP are both around -240, strange stuff. but what you said makes sense. I really do think GSP is the #1 P4P guy (whatever that is worth, always has been a bit of a dumb thing). But i could end up crying like a little girl tonight if quite a few of these don't pan out.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OK, I'm just about finalized.

Lesnar to win 2u

Bonnar to win 1u

Gugerty to win 2u

Belcher +220 small

Grant +250 small

Bisping +300 small

Parlays:

Lesnar/Fitch/Bonnar/Gugerty

Lesnar/Fitch

Lesnar/Bonnar

Lesnar/St. Pierre

St. Pierre/Fitch

Fitch/Bonnar

And a $20 homerun swing: Lesnar, Fitch, GSP, Bonnar, Gugerty, Belcher, Grant

Final thoughts: First of all, go Lesnar. I've only got 2u tied to him outright, but as you can see, I'm heavily invested in him with some other big favorites. I won't completely rehash what has been said many times already in this thread and the official UFC 100 thread, but barring a hidden staph infection/knee injury or another Lesnar "slip up" I don't see a way Mir wins this fight. He's become the fashionable pick amongst many people on the internet and I like seeing this, because to me, that means his win vs. Nogueira has completely overvalued him and thus, we have great value in Brock at the -210ish that he's at.

I didn't want action on GSP/Alves for a few reasons, but in the end after reading as much as I could and watching as much as I could, I don't think anybody in the WW division is stopping GSP any time soon with the exception of Serra-like bomb catching him. The guy is too well-conditioned, too well-rounded, and too good of a wrestler for Alves to pose a substantial threat to him. I got my action on GSP via these parlays because I don't think he poses much value at the line he's at, although I think he wins.

The Fitch line is ugly, but much like GSP, he's seemingly too damn good to lose, barring mental errors. I've included him in several parlays for that exact reason. Fitch has beaten just about everybody in the WW division with the exception of GSP, whom he lost a 5 round decision to, and all of a sudden Paulo Thiago is ready for this guy because he got lucky against Koschek? I don't think so.

I hate having this much chalk, but the parlays have reduced that a bit, and even though you very rarely see all of the big favorites come through, I can't justify going with any of the bigger dogs on any of the bigger fights because I don't believe they have a logical path to victory PROVIDED both fighters fight up to their capabilities. I've yet to see a good, reasonable argument for backing Mark Coleman, Paulo Thiago or Frank Mir that made me second guess having as much action on Bonnar, Fitch and Lesnar as I do. It's probably one-sided thinking, but I feel that many of the people (not specifically on this board) that are picking some of the underdogs in some of these fights are doing so for the sake of being able to try to look smart after they win - rather than having a truly logical, reasonable explanation as to WHY they think any of these dogs might come out on top.

Good luck everybody, enjoy the fights. I hope everybody cleans the #### up tonight!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And a $20 homerun swing: Lesnar, Fitch, GSP, Bonnar, Gugerty, Belcher, Grant

Whats the payout on a hit here? I don't ever put any action on these cards but I follow this damn sport enough and make enough predictions -- I can see myself hopping in with one parlay per card just for fun. As stated, no action... But I like all the favorites , other than Danzig and Belcher who I think will upset. So, for a grand total of 0u, I'm going:GriceDollowayKim JonesDanzig with the upset BonnerBelcher with the upset FitchHenderson GSPLesnar Edited by AhrnCityPahnder
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify's Picks for UFC 100 (main and preliminary cards)

Brock Lesnar -225 : 9 units to win 4 units

Dan Henderson -215 : 4.3 units to win 2 units

Georges St. Pierre -300 : 3 units to win 1 unit

Alan Belcher +210 : .3 units to win .63 units

Stephan Bonnar -350 : 7 units to win 2 units

Shannon Gugerty -105 : 2.1 units to win 2 units

C.B. Dollaway -250 : 2.5 units to win 1 unit

T.J. Grant +225 : .4 units to win .9 units

Jake O'Brien +300 : .2 units to win .6 units

I don't have a problem laying 9 to 4 with a big edge but I'm not getting the money management on betting the live dogs. .2 units? Seriously? What kind of miniscule edge is he betting here?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And a $20 homerun swing: Lesnar, Fitch, GSP, Bonnar, Gugerty, Belcher, Grant

Whats the payout on a hit here? I don't ever put any action on these cards but I follow this damn sport enough and make enough predictions -- I can see myself hopping in with one parlay per card just for fun. As stated, no action... But I like all the favorites , other than Danzig and Belcher who I think will upset. So, for a grand total of 0u, I'm going:GriceDollowayKim JonesDanzig with the upset BonnerBelcher with the upset FitchHenderson GSPLesnar
Odds changed a little bit since I put it in, but $20 is paying $950ish.BTW, glad to see you agree on Bonnar, Fitch, GSP and Lenar. Edited by sheerterror
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify's Picks for UFC 100 (main and preliminary cards)

Brock Lesnar -225 : 9 units to win 4 units

Dan Henderson -215 : 4.3 units to win 2 units

Georges St. Pierre -300 : 3 units to win 1 unit

Alan Belcher +210 : .3 units to win .63 units

Stephan Bonnar -350 : 7 units to win 2 units

Shannon Gugerty -105 : 2.1 units to win 2 units

C.B. Dollaway -250 : 2.5 units to win 1 unit

T.J. Grant +225 : .4 units to win .9 units

Jake O'Brien +300 : .2 units to win .6 units

I don't have a problem laying 9 to 4 with a big edge but I'm not getting the money management on betting the live dogs. .2 units? Seriously? What kind of miniscule edge is he betting here?
I can't answer for him, but I can speak for myself in saying that it sucks when you think you've identified a live dog and you play it big(ger than you should), it loses and you NEED a big play to hit just to cancel out your flyer.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good luck everybody, enjoy the fights. I hope everybody cleans the #### up tonight!

that is one thing about tonight, i think either most of us have a real good night, or we won't since most of the picks around here are on the same way. Only one that seems to go either way is Bisping-Hendo.

And man, i went to fix up some bets this afternoon, got on sportsbook, put them in, and spilled water on my laptop :rolleyes:. I jsut got it working, checked and they removed the whole undercard. i may toss a little more on GSP and Brock, and go from there. my total card is pretty crazy tonight and we have pretty much the same card (except my GSP picks).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lesnar/Mir just moved 35 cents in Mir's direction. Interesting.

Yeah, all 3 of the main fights moved. Thank you Bisping fans for bringing Hendo down a bit. I got a little excited when i originally grabbed Bisping (and must have had a good night or 2) because i have $190 on Bisping at +300. Grabbing a little on Hendo at -210 is a nice way of ensuring some money falls through the cracks.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Performify laying TONS of chalk on this card: http://mmajunkie.com/news/15464/performify...0-main-card.mma

His large plays include Lesnar (risking 9u) Bonnar (risking 7u) and Henderson (risking 4.3u).

I'm tailing his big plays. Probably going to purchase my first UFC fight tomorrow night.
I doubt you will regret it!
I'm sure I won't, just hoping Performify has a good night :thumbup:
Just my opinion here, but i think Hendo-Bisping will be closer and Hendo isn't a top bet for the night. I certainly don't think he is a sure thing at all. Like Sheer, i got Bisping at +300 awhile ago, and I am not sold on him winning this fight, but I do not think Hendo is guaranteed by any means. I think trying some of those underdog bets might be better plays then laying all that on Hendo. if you spread 4.3 units between Belcher, O'Brien, and Grant i think you will at least hit one of those (hopefuly). just my 2 cents

and i really think i have read everything i can about these fights, but one thing i have not heaard much about with the Bisping-Hendo fight is the fact that Rampage has trained with Bisping for over a year now (i think), and Rampage did very well against Hendo and knows him pretty well. Any effect on the fight with this?

well, i was wrong about Bisping. Will be able to make up the little i lost though loading up on Anderson Silva to beat up Dan pretty good. You figure Bisping would have stopped circling left after he got clipped a few times, but oh well.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry I missed this yesterday Mo. Here's my take:It absolutely sucks to have your big play, your biggest, best feel on the card nullified by losing two flyers. It's happened to me several times, and it really is a #### feeling. If you feel as strong about GSP as it seems like you do, no reason to make sure that no matter what happens, as long as he wins, you are making money. Given the juice on the GSP fight, I'd guess your most reasonable way of enacting this strategy would be to hedge off of Belcher and Grant a little - which shouldn't be too hard since you likely beat the line movement on both of those guys. Adding more to GSP will be fine if/when he wins, but if he loses, because of that juice, the hit will be that much greater. I think what I said makes sense, I'm tired and kind of rambling.

:wall::wall::wall:. Sheer, you hit this right on the head. Unfortunately i didn't hedge Belcher and Bisping enough. Pretty sure you are hitting this right on the head, and i wish i would have listened a little better. i avoided checking any info. on the undercard, so hopefuly some of those other guys hit and we'll be good, but I should have put my whole acct. into GSP. I am very confident he wins this (just started 2nd round)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm tailing Performity on all but Bonnar. Leaving that fight alone.

I felt the same for a while about that - Bonnar isn't a good enough fighter to lay that kind of juice. But the more I thought about it, the more I started to like the fight, not so much to back Bonnar but to fade Coleman. The guy is on the card for 1 reason, because he's a legend in the sport at the time of a historical card and is still [attempting] to compete in this day in age. The game has passed him by completely as we all know - and even though Stephan is about as mediocre as it gets for a "big name" fighter, Coleman has almost no path to victory. Bonnar has been finished once in his entire career, and that was against Machida a few years ago. Coleman has minimal (read: no) chance at a submission, so his path to victory is via a decision or as I believe Perf stated, freak injury. If you've watched Coleman fight recently, he has about 2 minutes worth of gas. That fight against Shogun was the sloppiest performance I've seen from two fighters from a conditioning standpoint in a long time. I think Bonnar is far too experienced to allow himself to get outpointed by an old man hanging on by a thread who will likely be too tired by half way through the first round to have any pop left in his TD attempts or strikes. This should be an easy one, and became worth a unit of my cash, as well as a few parlays. The line slipped away at Sportsbook to -500 last I saw, and that is unplayable, but if you can still grab it at -350ish, I think it's worth consideration. :2cents:
i completely agree. all i can think of is Hughes-Gracie from a few years ago.
this is the one that has me kicking myself the most tonight. I haven't seen it, and i think it is on ufc.com for free so i need to check it out. What i have read though has me thinking Bonner did not get crused, and that he lost to possible bad judging (what i read was he had a lot of submission attempts in rounds 2 and 3 that could have swayed the judges his way). still, should have looked into a llittle more. A little lazy tailing on some of these, and i should have looked a little more into this fight and the Kim-Grant fight. Oh well, could have been a lot nicer, but the big boys came through so it wasn't heart breaking.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses :wall:

Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a loss
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses :wall:

Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a loss
I think the only time we will see GSP at anything better than -300 again is if/when he fights Anderson Silva. And after tonight's showing, I think that's likely his next opponent. He's rolled through the entire WW division completely unscathed. Fitch is a stud, as is Alves, but they are both clearly 1 or 2 steps below GSP's level. It's really interesting that for the first time since I can remember, every champion (less Brock Lesnar, whom I think can be beaten by Shane Carwin) looks like he doesn't have any legitimate competition on the horizon. I'll be pulling for Florian for sure, but if Penn beats him, he's got no one at 155 that looks to pose a legitimate threat. Diego Sanchez is not good enough IMO. GSP is not human and will have the WW title for as long as he pleases. Same can be said for Silva at MW, although I'd like to see a rematch between he and Marquardt. Machida, like GSP is not human and will hold onto that title until either Rampage can catch him with a lucky punch, or Dana White throws enough money at Silva to convince him to go against his good friend and training partner.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bonnar screwed me out of a 4 figure night on this card - instead I barely made $100, which hardly put a dent in my MLB losses :wall:

Well, we will live to fight another day. I am pissy about this tonight though too, the guys i should have been real heavy on were Fitch, Lesnar, and GSP. I was for awhile, then i got carried away and started tailing all of these other picks. Looking at your post with your picks, you may have been on to something with the call that a lot of people are picking underdogs to come out and show other people that they were right. I was wrong on Bisping, and i think Belcher should have won that fight, or at least showed a little more effort in round 2 to solidify it. But oh well, we'll have to make it up going forward. UFC 101 will be very light for me, but there should be good value to be had again. Unfortunately i don't know if GSP will ever be around -220 again, and that is a loss
I think the only time we will see GSP at anything better than -300 again is if/when he fights Anderson Silva. And after tonight's showing, I think that's likely his next opponent. He's rolled through the entire WW division completely unscathed. Fitch is a stud, as is Alves, but they are both clearly 1 or 2 steps below GSP's level. It's really interesting that for the first time since I can remember, every champion (less Brock Lesnar, whom I think can be beaten by Shane Carwin) looks like he doesn't have any legitimate competition on the horizon. I'll be pulling for Florian for sure, but if Penn beats him, he's got no one at 155 that looks to pose a legitimate threat. Diego Sanchez is not good enough IMO. GSP is not human and will have the WW title for as long as he pleases. Same can be said for Silva at MW, although I'd like to see a rematch between he and Marquardt. Machida, like GSP is not human and will hold onto that title until either Rampage can catch him with a lucky punch, or Dana White throws enough money at Silva to convince him to go against his good friend and training partner.
Very :goodposting: ETA - Rogan asking GSP if he plans on moving up in weight is testimony that things need to get shaken up. The Tier 1 guys can stay for quite some time and will hurt the 'business' end of UFC.Who's gonna pay for PPV if nobody can beat the champ(s)? Edited by zander_s
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very :goodposting: ETA - Rogan asking GSP if he plans on moving up in weight is testimony that things need to get shaken up. The Tier 1 guys can stay for quite some time and will hurt the 'business' end of UFC.Who's gonna pay for PPV if nobody can beat the champ(s)?

maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him.

there are a bunch of others up that are interesting:

Rashad -115 vs. Rampage -115

Gray Maynard -205 vs. Roger Huerta +165

Mike Swick -170 vs. Martin Kampmann +145

Nate Diaz -265 vs. Melvin Guillard +200

Nick DIaz -290 vs. Joe Riggs +230

Alistair Overeem -205 vs. Werdum +160

there are some others, but these caught my eye the most. I actually think i like Werdum a bit, and i think money will come flying in on my boy Overeem. In all honesty, i think Overeem may have some issues with drug testing, etc. here in US. I hate to throw accusations like that, but i am unsure how Overeem will look here in the states. I wish he was fighting someone other than Werdum because i don't have a ton of faith in him, but i jsut think Overeem won't be the same.

and how about this barn burner on sportsbook:

10/3/10 10 Fedor Emelianenko

-240 OFF OFF

23:00 ET Brock Lesnar

+190 OFF OFF

HOLY CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!! what does sportsbook know that the rest of us don't

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him. there are a bunch of others up that are interesting:Rashad -115 vs. Rampage -115Gray Maynard -205 vs. Roger Huerta +165Mike Swick -170 vs. Martin Kampmann +145Nate Diaz -265 vs. Melvin Guillard +200Nick DIaz -290 vs. Joe Riggs +230Alistair Overeem -205 vs. Werdum +160 there are some others, but these caught my eye the most. I actually think i like Werdum a bit, and i think money will come flying in on my boy Overeem. In all honesty, i think Overeem may have some issues with drug testing, etc. here in US. I hate to throw accusations like that, but i am unsure how Overeem will look here in the states. I wish he was fighting someone other than Werdum because i don't have a ton of faith in him, but i jsut think Overeem won't be the same. and how about this barn burner on sportsbook: 10/3/10 10 Fedor Emelianenko -240 OFF OFF 23:00 ET Brock Lesnar +190 OFF OFF HOLY CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!! what does sportsbook know that the rest of us don't

Love Kampmann in that fight. Surprised to see he's the dog. Swick has looked good lately, but I think MK has faced much better fighters than MS has.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him. there are a bunch of others up that are interesting:Rashad -115 vs. Rampage -115Gray Maynard -205 vs. Roger Huerta +165Mike Swick -170 vs. Martin Kampmann +145Nate Diaz -265 vs. Melvin Guillard +200Nick DIaz -290 vs. Joe Riggs +230Alistair Overeem -205 vs. Werdum +160 there are some others, but these caught my eye the most. I actually think i like Werdum a bit, and i think money will come flying in on my boy Overeem. In all honesty, i think Overeem may have some issues with drug testing, etc. here in US. I hate to throw accusations like that, but i am unsure how Overeem will look here in the states. I wish he was fighting someone other than Werdum because i don't have a ton of faith in him, but i jsut think Overeem won't be the same. and how about this barn burner on sportsbook: 10/3/10 10 Fedor Emelianenko -240 OFF OFF 23:00 ET Brock Lesnar +190 OFF OFF HOLY CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!! what does sportsbook know that the rest of us don't

Love Kampmann in that fight. Surprised to see he's the dog. Swick has looked good lately, but I think MK has faced much better fighters than MS has.
I was thinking the same thing. I think the fight against Condit certainly was a big step for Kampmann. I think i will put a little on him.One that has me worried that i put money on is Nick Diaz. The guy has treated me well lately and helped my account quite a bit. But Nick does (or did) have a tendency to overloook some fights. He hasn't in a bit, but i go back to his fight against Mike Aina, that was certainly not a good Diaz there. But Nick should win this fight hands down. My worry is the line is already -290 (i think it shold be -400 or something), and it will go up. But, he has letdowns every once in awhile, so we'll see.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very :goodposting: ETA - Rogan asking GSP if he plans on moving up in weight is testimony that things need to get shaken up. The Tier 1 guys can stay for quite some time and will hurt the 'business' end of UFC.Who's gonna pay for PPV if nobody can beat the champ(s)?

maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.
Love Nate in that fight man. Barring Performify putting his house on Maia, it will be a multi-unit play for me. As slick as Maia's BJJ is, give me the bigger, stronger, more well rounded guy in every fight rather than the guy who seemingly needs to "catch his opponent" in a sub as his primary path to victory. Marquardt is the Kenny Florian of the MW division - the guy gets better with every fight, but gets unnoticed because of the general public's infatuation with the dominant champ in his respective division.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have had sneaking feeling about Florian taking it to BJP too. Not sure why. Everything on paper says BJP should win, but I gots a feelin....

I'll be betting Florian too, albeit smallish. I love the way he fights and how he seems to get better every time he steps into the wring. You always know he's coming in to every fight in shape and with all his heart. The same cannot be said of BJ Penn, who is certainly more talented but can't be fully trusted IMO in the effort department. I think Kenny's actually got a slight edge in the striking department, and if he can keep this fight standing, he can use his reach to pick apart BJ for a round or 2, wait for him to tire and then possibly take the fight to the ground and finish him with those famous elbows. Both have great BJJ, so it will be interesting to see how this fight looks if/when it makes it to the ground. If you are backing Florian, I suggest waiting to do so. The line has gotten progressively better, and I'm sure the general betting public will continue to jump on BJ as fight time approaches. Hopefully we can sneak out +200ish.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him.

there are a bunch of others up that are interesting:

Rashad -115 vs. Rampage -115

Gray Maynard -205 vs. Roger Huerta +165

Mike Swick -170 vs. Martin Kampmann +145

Nate Diaz -265 vs. Melvin Guillard +200

Nick DIaz -290 vs. Joe Riggs +230

Alistair Overeem -205 vs. Werdum +160

there are some others, but these caught my eye the most. I actually think i like Werdum a bit, and i think money will come flying in on my boy Overeem. In all honesty, i think Overeem may have some issues with drug testing, etc. here in US. I hate to throw accusations like that, but i am unsure how Overeem will look here in the states. I wish he was fighting someone other than Werdum because i don't have a ton of faith in him, but i jsut think Overeem won't be the same.

and how about this barn burner on sportsbook:

10/3/10 10 Fedor Emelianenko

-240 OFF OFF

23:00 ET Brock Lesnar

+190 OFF OFF

HOLY CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!! what does sportsbook know that the rest of us don't

Gimme Kampmann and Maynard all day long. I don't trust either of the Diaz brothers at those odds although they both should win. Rampage-Rashad line looks about as expected, don't know what to make of that fight yet. I've got to do more research on Overeem, but just looking over Werdum's resume, he might be worth a nice flier at that price.

Interesting that the winner of Kampmann-Swick gets the next title shot against GSP - I don't think either has much of a shot. GSP -400 at a minimum against either of those two is my guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him.

there are a bunch of others up that are interesting:

Rashad -115 vs. Rampage -115

Gray Maynard -205 vs. Roger Huerta +165

Mike Swick -170 vs. Martin Kampmann +145

Nate Diaz -265 vs. Melvin Guillard +200

Nick DIaz -290 vs. Joe Riggs +230

Alistair Overeem -205 vs. Werdum +160

there are some others, but these caught my eye the most. I actually think i like Werdum a bit, and i think money will come flying in on my boy Overeem. In all honesty, i think Overeem may have some issues with drug testing, etc. here in US. I hate to throw accusations like that, but i am unsure how Overeem will look here in the states. I wish he was fighting someone other than Werdum because i don't have a ton of faith in him, but i jsut think Overeem won't be the same.

and how about this barn burner on sportsbook:

10/3/10 10 Fedor Emelianenko

-240 OFF OFF

23:00 ET Brock Lesnar

+190 OFF OFF

HOLY CHRIST!!!!!!!!!!! what does sportsbook know that the rest of us don't

Very interesting!!!
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very :goodposting: ETA - Rogan asking GSP if he plans on moving up in weight is testimony that things need to get shaken up. The Tier 1 guys can stay for quite some time and will hurt the 'business' end of UFC.Who's gonna pay for PPV if nobody can beat the champ(s)?

maybe, but i know there have been times when i thought the same thing and was wrong. It is hard to think about which champ is least likely to lose his belt, but i have to imagine we are under-estimating some of the future contenders. I think the guy who is least likely to lose anytime soon is GSP. I do think there are possibilities of Silva or Penn taking a fight lightly or getting complacent as the champ (a la GSP vs. Serra). I do think if Brock gets past Carwin, he will hold the belt for a belt. He comes in around 280 or so, and most HWY's come in much lighter. I do think Brock has a good chance against Fedor with the huge weight advantage he will have, but this conversation is a long time off. Machida seems to be looking dominant lately, but there is a lot of talent i the light heavyweight division, and a lot of potential contendors pack some power in their punches. My prediction on first champ to lose their belt: Penn to Florian in 101. after that, i have no idea. And Sheer, you and the latest Fight magazine i just got have talked to me into putting 1 unit on the Nate the Great. My account is in pretty good shape and i really don't have many pending bets at all out there, and i need a few.
Love Nate in that fight man. Barring Performify putting his house on Maia, it will be a multi-unit play for me. As slick as Maia's BJJ is, give me the bigger, stronger, more well rounded guy in every fight rather than the guy who seemingly needs to "catch his opponent" in a sub as his primary path to victory. Marquardt is the Kenny Florian of the MW division - the guy gets better with every fight, but gets unnoticed because of the general public's infatuation with the dominant champ in his respective division.
yeah the article i was reading in the "Fight" magazine made me more confident in taking Nate too. They talked a lot about his Pancrase fighting and his experience in Japan when he was younger. and i put some bets in for DREAM 10. I think i am pissing away money doing so, but i also pissed away money tailing some golf plays that look like they will be 0-6, so what the hell, why not:Manhoef +105 over Filho: one unit: until i hear Filho has received some mental health help, i don't have a ton of faith in him. the guy was really off his rocker his last few fights, and i heard Manhoef was in Brazil training BJJ for a bit, so hopefuly that works out.Vitor Shaolin +175 over Aoki: a dumb bet, not sure why i bet against Aoki, but i heard good things about "Shaolin". may hedge before the event, but at +175 it was a shot in the darkAndre Dida +130 over Kikuno for .5 unit: another dumb bet, some blind tailing here. also was thinking of putting .5 unit on JTMoney over Dong Sik Yoon because Taylor has been looking good and at +190 sounded like a good opportunity, but i read somewhere else about Yoon looking pretty good in his fight with Rampage at Pride 34, so i will probably avoid. I hear Galvao and Sakurai are pretty much locks, but i just saw they are both over -500 at this point, and i see no reason to get crazy.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him.

I haven't listened to this yet, but here's a video of Filho discussing his troubles.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

sportsbook has a lot of new MMA betting up. they have the Dream card up and i immediately jumped on Manhoef over Filho. I like Paulo, but as long as he hasn't looked into any mental health treatment, i don't have any faith in him.

I haven't listened to this yet, but here's a video of Filho discussing his troubles.
he looks a heck of a lot better then he did for the Shonnen fight, and he has a heck of a chin, so i probably may hedge a little of my bet on Manhoef. I am still am not overly confident in Filho, but if he gets Mahoef on the ground i think it won't last very long
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • AhrnCityPahnder changed the title to UFC wagering: GSP -- I waz eeempressed by your performances. Godspeed!

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
  • Create New...