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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated Oct 2020)


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3 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

Just look at the tiny amount of time/resources dedicated (by FBG, forums, etc) to return yards or players that get all their value from return yards. It's a niche market. If we're dropping anecdotal evidence (you having 4 of 6), I'll share that I'm somewhere around 0 of 12. 

Counting return yards is just a gimmick to get more players in the player pool to encourage parity. "Did you miss out on real players that play on offense? Don't worry. Pick up this 6th string WR who runs no routes, plays zero offensive snaps, but returns kickoffs." A guy like Hill has much more value in those leagues, but for future reference if you are discussing a return yard league it is really important to state that because almost everyone will assume return yards count for nothing.

:rolleyes: We get it, you don't like including returns.  But your arguments have been made, equally poorly, against ppr.  Personally, I like leagues where players get credit for what they do on the field - if you don't think special teams matter, we view the nfl very differently.  It's cool though, we all have our preferences - just keep in mind that's all your, or my, opinion is on this matter.  Neither is "wrong" or a gimmick. 

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FWIW I like scoring for returns. It adds another interesting wrinkle to player values and returns are an important part of the outcome of real football games. I have proposed adding return yardage scoring to leagues that don't have it in the past, but I was a lone voice in the wilderness on this issue. I have played in leagues that have scoring for returns, and generally it only matters for a few players, but I like that element to be there and I would never say no to such a rule change, even if I am not well equipped to take advantage of it presently. 

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Whether return yards are a good idea or a bad idea is irrelevant in a discussion about whether most leagues include them or not, which they clearly do not.  Even that is only relevant because a couple of people were making arguments under the assumption that the scoring system was one used in a very small number of leagues, and then acting all bewildered as if people were trying to cherry pick Hill's stats by not including his return yards.

It's a silly discussion anyways because in return yard leagues obviously his value is way higher than WR41.  That's obvious to the point that it's barely even worth mentioning.  His value is also much higher in leagues where Chiefs' players get 1000 points per touchdown.  Each of those are equally relevant to ZWK's rankings that include neither return yards (as very very few rankings on the internet do) nor 1000 point touchdowns for Chiefs players.

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8 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Whether return yards are a good idea or a bad idea is irrelevant in a discussion about whether most leagues include them or not, which they clearly do not.  Even that is only relevant because a couple of people were making arguments under the assumption that the scoring system was one used in a very small number of leagues, and then acting all bewildered as if people were trying to cherry pick Hill's stats by not including his return yards.

It's a silly discussion anyways because in return yard leagues obviously his value is way higher than WR41.  That's obvious to the point that it's barely even worth mentioning.  His value is also much higher in leagues where Chiefs' players get 1000 points per touchdown.  Each of those are equally relevant to ZWK's rankings that include neither return yards (as very very few rankings on the internet do) nor 1000 point touchdowns for Chiefs players.

Yeah that's what is happening :rolleyes:

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End-of-season running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 8/29/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    David Johnson    ARI    25.7    (4)
1    2    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    22.1    (3)
1    3    LeVeon Bell    PIT    25.5    (2)
2    4    Todd Gurley    RAM    23.1    (1)
2    5    Melvin Gordon    SD    24.4    (20)
3    6    Devonta Freeman    ATL    25.5    (6)
3    7    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.9    (14)
3    8    Jordan Howard    CHI    22.8    (58)
3    9    Derrick Henry    TEN    23.1    (9)
3    10    Lamar Miller    HOU    26.4    (5)
3    11    Jay Ajayi    MIA    24.2    (31)
3    12    LeSean McCoy    BUF    29.1    (11)
4    13    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18)
4    14    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (7)
4    15    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (21)
4    16    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (17)
4    17    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (30)
4    18    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (15)
4    19    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (13)
5    20    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (41)
5    21    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (38)
5    22    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (39)
5    23    Latavius Murray    OAK    26.5    (23)
5    24    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (73)
5    25    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (27)
6    26    Jamaal Charles    KC    30.7    (10)
6    27    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (36)
6    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (57)
6    29    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (19)
6    30    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (42)
6    31    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (22)
6    32    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (55)
6    33    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (24)
6    34    Eddie Lacy    GB    27.2    (8)
7    35    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    unr
7    36    Mike Gillislee    BUF    26.8    (83)
7    37    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (12)
7    38    Karlos Williams    PIT    24.3    (34)
7    39    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (45)
7    40    James White    NE    25.6    (52)
7    41    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (37)
7    42    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (50)
7    43    LeGarrette Blount    NE    30.7    (56)
7    44    Adrian Peterson    MIN    32.4    (16)
7    45    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (29)
7    46    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (40)
7    47    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (46)
7    48    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (43)
7    49    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (32)
8    50    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    unr
8    51    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    unr
8    52    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (48)
8    53    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (69)
8    54    Christine Michael    GB    26.8    (26)
8    55    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    unr
8    56    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (59)
8    57    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (49)
8    58    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (64)
8    59    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (68)
8    60    Danny Woodhead    SD    32.7    (44)
9    61    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    34.4    (53)
9    62    Rashad Jennings    NYG    32.4    (47)
9    63    Ryan Mathews    PHI    29.9    (33)
9    64    Andre Ellington    ARI    28.6    (51)
9    65    Jeremy Langford    CHI    25.7    (25)
9    66    Javorius Allen    BAL    26.0    (61)
9    67    Tyler Ervin    HOU    23.9    (63)
9    68    Matt Jones    WAS    24.5    (28)
9    69    Alex Collins    SEA    23.0    (67)
10    70    Malcolm Brown    RAM    24.3    (65)
10    71    Robert Turbin    IND    27.7    (96)
10    72    Alfred Blue    HOU    26.3    (87)
10    73    Darren McFadden    DAL    30.0    (74)
10    74    Charcandrick West    KC    26.3    (71)
10    75    Fozzy Whittaker    CAR    28.6    unr
10    76    Jonathan Williams    BUF    23.6    (62)
10    77    Dwayne Washington    DET    23.4    (86)
10    78    Alfred Morris    DAL    28.7    (70)
10    79    Denard Robinson    FA    26.9    (78)
10    80    Daniel Lasco    NO    24.9    (82)
10    81    Travaris Cadet    NO    28.6    (95)
10    82    Tim Hightower    NO    31.3    (90)
10    83    Benny Cunningham    RAM    27.2    (89)
10    84    D.J. Foster        23.8    unr
10    85    Khiry Robinson        27.7    (72)
10    86    Ronnie Hillman        26.0    (66)
10    87    Cameron Artis-Payne    CAR    27.2    (75)
10    88    Chris Johnson    ARI    31.9    (81)
10    89    Shaun Draughn    SF    29.7    (91)

It's a tough call at the top. I think that Bell is the most talented and Zeke is the youngest, but Zeke catches the fewest passes and Bell has the suspension risk. I'd have Zeke #1 in non-ppr, but with 0.5 ppr I'm going with Johnson. In 2016 David Johnson finished as the #1 RB and Antonio Brown & Jordy Nelson finished as the top 2 WRs, and David Johnson was worth more than both of them put together. Bell & Zeke were each about 50 VBD behind Johnson, Bell because he missed games and Zeke because he caught fewer passes.

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13 minutes ago, ZWK said:

2    5    Melvin Gordon    SD    24.4    (20)
8    60    Danny Woodhead    SD    32.7    (44)

This is a bold call on Gordon IMO. Can you state your rationale on this ranking? Interested to know if you make any assumption about Woodhead or other RBs having roles; other candidates might include Oliver, Hillman, Farrow, McCluster, and/or Andre Williams. Also interested to know if you factor OL quality into your rankings.

17 minutes ago, ZWK said:

5    22    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (39)
6    26    Jamaal Charles    KC    30.7    (10)
10    74    Charcandrick West    KC    26.3    (71)

Do you make any assumption on whether or not Charles remains in KC with these rankings? I guess I could see these rankings being based on Charles being back next season and being the primary RB, which means West has no role until the following season, when West will already be 27 and still presumably behind Ware. Is that your expectation?

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There aren't many RBs who are as young as Melvin Gordon and have had a season as good as his 2016. Highly touted coming into the league (and he rated out well in my prospect rankings), big stats this year both in fantasy and by PFF grade, looked good as a receiver and in short yardage / goal-line situations. If Woodhead or someone else is back in the receiving back role then that will hurt his numbers, but Gordon has a better chance than most RBs of being a 3-down RB after doing so well at it this year. The bad San Diego OL makes his 2016 season more impressive (which is a positive for Gordon) and also means that he'll probably find it harder to find running room over the next year or two (which is a negative for Gordon); on the whole that is somewhat positive for Gordon (compared to if I thought that SD had a great offensive line in 2016).

Charcandrick West is not a good RB, as far as I can tell. Injuries have given him a path to playing time over the past couple years, but I don't see him as a good enough player to earn much playing time. Spencer Ware seems like a pretty good RB, potentially the kind of guy who can hold down a starting job for a few years. Most of Jamaal Charles's value comes from the chance that he'll get healthy and be the same player that he was in 2014.

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21 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

I like the aggressive ranking for Jordan Howard. :thumbup:

Ranking of Jeremy Hill not so much, but I don't think I could say anything original about that.

Howard ranking did not even strike me as aggressive.

Now putting CJ Anderson at 15 is aggressive and I strongly disagree. Now this is half a PPR so don't know that impact but in PPR leagues this ranking is actually higher than Anderson has ever finished a season, which was 16th. Same result if you use PPG or total season, 16th is his best season. In terms of total points he's only cracked top 30 ONCE. Bad! And really when a player has never had so much as 190 carries on the college or pro level I don't think you can really use per game to much to evaluate him, it's not like he's suddenly going to carry strong for 300 or something.

He's got Hill ranked 19th. Again this is PPR and half PPR likely only boosts Hill a little but since he came into the league he's finished as RB10, RB22 and RB20, yet people hate Hill and love Anderson, don't get it. Even if you want to use PPG instead, which takes away one of best traits of Hill's which is his availability, he's finished as RB 17,36 and 26. That's not quite RB19 but an average of 26 and considering he's only missed one game and his durablity is a big plus I'd think moving up over his per game average at least a few is just.

 

Anyway, disagree or agree, appreciate the effort of the rankings and all in all as good as anything else I've seen out there.

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28 minutes ago, menobrown said:

Now putting CJ Anderson at 15 is aggressive and I strongly disagree. Now this is half a PPR so don't know that impact but in PPR leagues this ranking is actually higher than Anderson has ever finished a season, which was 16th. Same result if you use PPG or total season, 16th is his best season.

1) Anderson hasn't had a full season as starter yet. He may never. But ppg counts games he didn't start, and full season numbers count games he didn't play last year.  There has also been a lot of qb turmoil.  He appears to have held off booker as competition, so if he survives the draft he could start again.

His numbers as starter:

2016 7 games 565/5

2015 15 games 903/5

2014 8 games 1053/10

You can make the case that he started a lot fewer than 15 games in 2015, but even counting those as full games, he has 2521 yards and 20 tds in 30 games, which projects out to 1350/10. Last year he was on pace for 1360/11 through 7 games before getting hurt.  That's right around rb10 numbers in most leagues.

2) Hill's numbers are solid, but unless he is the standalone starter, he's too touchdown dependent to actually use.  For every multi td game, he gives you 2 or 3 games with 1 catch, 30 or 40 tortal yards and no tds. In a best ball format or with deep starting lineups, he can be more useful. Otherwise you're hoping for a gio injury, and even that didn't help much last year.

3) The rb landscape is such that you will have a handful of studs - elliott, dj, bell, mccoy, etc - at the top and then a large group below them. One way to separate that large group is by age - i would rather have kenneth dixon than frank gore. But you're also looking for upside. Anderson has put up elite rb1 numbers for an 8 game stretch before, is still relatively young, put up low end rb1 numbers last year, and may (should?) be the primary ball carrier again. If he doesn't get porked in the draft, which is a risk for almost everybody this year, he should be somewhere between mid range rb and high end rb1, with a very realistic expectation of low end rb1. Compare that with kenneth dixon, who i like. Dixon could also put up.high end rb1 numbers, but we haven't seen it. He could put up low end rb1 numbers, which feels like his realistic upside. But he could also do zilch, and has a higher likelihood of getting screwed in the draft. At this time of year, Anderson belongs clearly ahead of Dixon despite their age difference.  He belongs ahead of a lot of guys almost by default. 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

1) Anderson hasn't had a full season as starter yet. He may never. But ppg counts games he didn't start, and full season numbers count games he didn't play last year.  There has also been a lot of qb turmoil.  He appears to have held off booker as competition, so if he survives the draft he could start again.

 

 

Correct he's not had a full season as a starter. Not even in college. It's because he's not good enough, can certainly can't be good enough all season. Like a typical backup, he can give you a few games at best and than wanes because that's what he is, a backup material player. I don't buy the QB turmoil, just because you benefit when Peyton was still good and defense did not gameplan around you does not mean you get to blame QB production for not being very good.  He's also had some great coaching. Gase and Kubiak and still laid duds. I also strongly disagree he held off Booker.

 

1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

2) Hill's numbers are solid, but unless he is the standalone starter, he's too touchdown dependent to actually use.  For every multi td game, he gives you 2 or 3 games with 1 catch, 30 or 40 tortal yards and no tds. In a best ball format or with deep starting lineups, he can be more useful. Otherwise you're hoping for a gio injury, and even that didn't help much last year.

 

His number are what they are, I did not make them up. Does not matter how he gets there, he's getting there and he's consistently one of the best goal line running backs in the league. If you start him every week he'll even out. His PPG production has been similar to Andersons, he's just healthier. I don't love the guy or anything and this really speaks to how thin the RB group is of players I trust, but fact is he's finishing with season totals that absolutely justify where he is ranked, not the case for CJ Anderson.

 

1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

 

 

3) The rb landscape is such that you will have a handful of studs - elliott, dj, bell, mccoy, etc - at the top and then a large group below them. One way to separate that large group is by age - i would rather have kenneth dixon than frank gore. But you're also looking for upside. Anderson has put up elite rb1 numbers for an 8 game stretch before, is still relatively young, put up low end rb1 numbers last year, and may (should?) be the primary ball carrier again. If he doesn't get porked in the draft, which is a risk for almost everybody this year, he should be somewhere between mid range rb and high end rb1, with a very realistic expectation of low end rb1. Compare that with kenneth dixon, who i like. Dixon could also put up.high end rb1 numbers, but we haven't seen it. He could put up low end rb1 numbers, which feels like his realistic upside. But he could also do zilch, and has a higher likelihood of getting screwed in the draft. At this time of year, Anderson belongs clearly ahead of Dixon despite their age difference.  He belongs ahead of a lot of guys almost by default. 

Yes the RB landscape is as you described which makes fact he's only finished in top 30 once and maxed out as #16 all the more damning, it' s not like he's not had a shot. I'd rather take my shots on a Dixon type.

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CJ Anderson & Jeremy Hill have both been fantasy RB2s for the past few years. They're both in the RB15-20 range for most fantasy production since 2014. The biggest difference being that CJ Anderson has been more up-and-down, sometimes flashing RB1 production and sometimes losing playing time to mediocre backs or missing time with injuries. I like Anderson more because he has more upside. It's possible that I'm too high on Hill, since he doesn't have much upside as long as Gio is playing on the same team (though it does seem reasonably likely that Hill will go elsewhere in free agency next offseason).

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Blount is 30 years old and a FA, and none of his other seasons in NE have been close to this one (in TDs, yards, or attempts). It's possible that he could have another big season next year, but then again that's also possible for guys like Peterson & Forte who are right by him in my rankings.

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2 minutes ago, ZWK said:

Blount is 30 years old and a FA, and none of his other seasons in NE have been close to this one (in TDs, yards, or attempts). It's possible that he could have another big season next year, but then again that's also possible for guys like Peterson & Forte who are right by him in my rankings.

Plus after that Super Bowl performance, I would expect White to see increased usage.

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2 minutes ago, garlicduck said:

Plus after that Super Bowl performance, I would expect White to see increased usage.

We've seen these kind of Super Bowl aberrations before and they rarely (if ever?) are indicative of the future.  Otherwise Deion Branch and Chris Matthews would be fantasy heroes.

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1 minute ago, FreeBaGeL said:

We've seen these kind of Super Bowl aberrations before and they rarely (if ever?) are indicative of the future.  Otherwise Deion Branch and Chris Matthews would be fantasy heroes.

True that!  :-)  But they didn't give the ball to Blount on the goal line Sunday.

Plus, Blount gives you nothing in the passing game, will never come close to 17 TDs again and is on the wrong side of 30.  I think his ranking is appropriate.

Good list ZWK.  I might move Prosise and Montgomery up some but overall a good starting point. 

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Prosise had one good game this year. I have moved him up a fair amount from where I had him before the season, but I don't want to move him too far based on a single game.

Montgomery basically took over as the Packers' RB by default, after their RBs got injured, and the Packers still didn't rely on him that heavily (only 1 game with 12+ carries, including playoffs). The Packers seem to like him in certain matchups (his 4 games with the highest workloads of att+tgt came against Chicago, Chicago, Dallas, and Dallas), but it's not clear if he does enough as a RB to be a big part of the offense week-to-week once GB has other running backs.

 

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13 hours ago, FUBAR said:

:rolleyes: We get it, you don't like including returns.  But your arguments have been made, equally poorly, against ppr.  Personally, I like leagues where players get credit for what they do on the field - if you don't think special teams matter, we view the nfl very differently.  It's cool though, we all have our preferences - just keep in mind that's all your, or my, opinion is on this matter.  Neither is "wrong" or a gimmick. 

:rolleyes: Actually, I'm fine with gimmicks (or "scoring tweaks" if you prefer) that increase the player pool as long as you increase starting lineups accordingly. And there's nothing poor about the argument against PPR or return yards. If you like leagues where people get credit for what they do, introduce points per first down. A guy shouldn't get an extra point for catching a 5 yard pass on 3rd and 20 and a guy shouldn't get points for a kickoff return to the 18 when his team would be on the 25 if he'd just taken a knee.

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8 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

We've seen these kind of Super Bowl aberrations before and they rarely (if ever?) are indicative of the future.  Otherwise Deion Branch and Chris Matthews would be fantasy heroes.

Agree.  And I think that's part of the problem with Blount.  BB has no hesitation to go away from him.  This isn't like PIT or ARI where they have "their guy" and are going to work him.  Having a patriot in your lineup is too risky for me.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That RB ranking list is pretty depressing (not the ranking itself, just the players). Hopefully this new class is everything we think they will be.

Yes and when you think about that 2014 WR draft probably gave most people anywhere from from 25-33% of their current top 20 WR's, changed the way the WR landscape work. I don't think the RB's will be as valued as the WR's from that draft but I do think this draft can and will have similar shakeup to the RB rankings. I could easily see me having 4-5 rookies in my top 20 RB's after the draft is over.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

That RB ranking list is pretty depressing (not the ranking itself, just the players). Hopefully this new class is everything we think they will be.

3 rookies from this past year in the top 9.  Might have that same thing happen again this year.  Might have half of the top 12 RBs in their first or second year.

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19 minutes ago, matttyl said:

3 rookies from this past year in the top 9.  Might have that same thing happen again this year.  Might have half of the top 12 RBs in their first or second year.

It very well could be 4 rookies.

 

Tex

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13 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

:rolleyes: Actually, I'm fine with gimmicks (or "scoring tweaks" if you prefer) that increase the player pool as long as you increase starting lineups accordingly. And there's nothing poor about the argument against PPR or return yards. If you like leagues where people get credit for what they do, introduce points per first down. A guy shouldn't get an extra point for catching a 5 yard pass on 3rd and 20 and a guy shouldn't get points for a kickoff return to the 18 when his team would be on the 25 if he'd just taken a knee.

Point per first down is what ppr should have been all along.  Great idea, even if it is (currently) a "tiny niche of fantasy leagues."

As to the quality return yards issue, simple solution is to add a -1 for kick returns ending inside the 25 (or 20 if you want to be charitable).  For punt returns, probably make that "inside the 10."

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12 hours ago, matttyl said:

Good thing I have the #1 and #4 rookie picks, then.

Even without Chubb and Freeman this is a really great class. I'm currently trying to package the 8th and 12th pick for the 4th pick.

Tex

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On 2/7/2017 at 6:53 PM, ZWK said:

7    39    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (45)

Are they content with Paul Perkins as their running back next season?

They liked what the rookie did in limited action and they seem committed to naming him the starter in 2017. The question is really about how much work they're willing to give him and how much support he needs. Rashad Jennings could be a salary cap casualty (or a candidate for a pay cut). But presumably the Giants will want to bring someone in to split carries with Perkins, who only carried the ball 112 times last season. The Giants have long been advocates of the need for two running backs to split the workload. They also believe this position is a young man's spot.

- Ralph Vacchiano

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On 2/7/2017 at 6:53 PM, ZWK said:

4    13    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18) - I don't understand how his value has stayed this high. He was drafted in the second, was a mediocre rookie, had a solid game week 1 this year, and got hurt for season week 2. 13th overall?
4    14    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (7) - this year seemed like a down year, but it really wasn't. 1360 yards and 10 tds.  14th is probably alright.
4    15    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (21) - in his last 30.games, has put up low end rb1 numbers. In his 7 games this year, he was exactly on that pace. He's shared carries most of that time. 15 seems right
4    16    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (17) - i guess i would like more upside from the 16th guy on this list. Gio is more likelly to be a rb2 than thomas rawls is to be an rb2 or better, but rawls is way more likely to be an rb1 than gio. Gio isn't so far better than replacement level that i would prefer him to a shot at a stud.
4    17    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (30) - good talent, bad situation, still had a good year. 940 yards and 11 tds in 12 games, for those who missed it. Atlanta could regress as an offense, and his upside is capped with freeman there, so i would probably drop him some. It seems like backfields where two guys are playable have a hard time repeating.
4    18    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (15) - rb1 upside. I fear prosise, but the juice is worth the squeeze. 
4    19    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (13) - not only is he an extremely difficult player to start each week, cincinatti is supposedly frustrated with their running game. 2 or 3 tiers too high. 
5    20    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (41) - with limited touches he put up rb1 numbers a few weeks in a row, then got hurt. Converted wr with limited rb experience but prototypical rb1 atheticism. Could be serviceable in ppr without "starting", would be a beast ifbhe took over. Move to tier 4.
5    21    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (38) - wore down late in the season after getting hurt but man was he a stud the first half. The threat of henry taking over is real but the stud rb1 upside is great. Tier 5 seems ok.
5    22    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (39) - if charles comes back or kc drafts a guy early, he might literally never start again. He had a strong end of 2015 and start to 2016 but no long stretches of big numbers. I guess tier 5 is ok. 
5    23    Latavius Murray    OAK    26.5    (23) -  I don't know where he will play or what role he will have.  1000/12 was exciting i guess, but the only thing I'm really confident in is that I don't expect him to ever put up rb1 numbers. 
5    24    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (73) - in his 2016 redskins yearbook he was voted most likely to be replaced. Had one momster game and a couple serviceable ones but upside seems limited even if he starts.
5    25    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (27) - james white played too well to hold out hope that lewis will be an every week starter. I like him a lot as a player but have a hard time gambling on him returning to his partial season form.
6    26    Jamaal Charles    KC    30.7    (10) - worth a shot that he is able to be a stud rb1 again. Yeah, he was hurt, and he's old, but the young guys didn't exactly relegate him to the bench and he was the best kind of elite when he played. Thought he was overrated the last couple years, might be underrated now.
6    27    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (36) - this is way too low for a young guy with rb1 upside. Dixon looked really good when he played. He runs with power, can run outside, and catches the ball really well.  He has to worry about a stud rb getting drafted - which should definitely lower his stock - but i think the ravens want a guy like tyreek hill or ty montgomery, who they could use on jet sweeps and outside runs when defenses start playing cover 2. Should be tier 4 or 5 at the lowest.
6    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (57) - probably about right. Can put up big numbers any week, but also disppears completely. 
6    29    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (19) - have you seen something that makes him rosterable?
6    30    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (42) - year 2 with hue. Add some talent around him and he could become a low end rb1.
6    31    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (22) - can catch the ball but doesnt seem to get the touches. I guess there's upside. 
6    32    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (55) - i am dumbfounded that you have him in the same tier as dixon. West had a couple weeks where he was clearly ahead of dixon but the rookie took the lead later in the year, and this seems like a year that west played as well as he was capable of. Would drop.
6    33    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (24) - finally got his chance and was painfully underwhelming. Just under 800 yards with 4 total tds.  110/2 of that was a week 17 game vs the bears. Yuck.
6    34    Eddie Lacy    GB    27.2    (8) - might be done, but a chance at free agency could give him some value.tier 6 is fine.
7    35    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    unr - it's hard to imagine the packers going into the season with him as their rb1, but he might belong higher
7    36    Mike Gillislee    BUF    26.8    (83) - i don't think he goes into any season as a rb1, so you're ranking him purely on backup rb value if mccoy gets hurt. Probably a bit high.
7    37    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (12) - seems to have dropped too far after climbing too far the year before. Still a chance to be an rb1 again at some point.
7    38    Karlos Williams    PIT    24.3    (34) - if he takes the backup job, which is reasonable, he could be a very valuable backup. But he has to pass deangelo 
7    39    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (45) - should be a couple tiers up. Giants seem committed to him as their rb1 next year and of the future. His first nfl start, he had 100 yards. Took him a long time to learn the protections in an audible heavy offense, especially starting late from ucla's late graduation, so year 2 could/should be a big leap. a starting running back at #39 is too low. 
7    40    James White    NE    25.6    (52) - this is probably about the right price. Has a little upside from here, but you probably fon't want to start him.
7    41    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (37) - seems like he was drafted to be a role player and dudn't play the role that well. This is residual dynasty value because they spent a third round pick on him i guess, but i have zero interest 
7    42    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (50).- was startable for a while. 
7    43    LeGarrette Blount    NE    30.7    (56) - had a career year but seemed to wear down a bit. Fans want the pats to draft a running back, but who knows. Would have value if they dont.
7    44    Adrian Peterson    MIN    32.4    (16) - worth gambling that hes not done
7    45    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (29) - worth gambling that hes not done
7    46    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (40) - seemed to have some rb of the future allure, but he's older than you think and didn't play that well this year.
7    47    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (46) - looked better as a backup than as a starter, but he was a rookie forced into a bigger role than he ought to have been 
7    48    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (43) - would be shocked if he ever started again. 
7    49    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (32) - i guess he has to.be ranked somewhere, but i have zero interest even at this low price. Just a frustrating player.
8    50    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    unr - why bother?
8    51    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    unr - has some chance to start for a good young offense
8    52    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (48) - has some chance to start for a good young offense
8    53    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (69) - has some chance to start for a good young offense. Could have standalone value as a receiving back. 
8    54    Christine Michael    GB    26.8    (26) - had occasional value this year, and some outside chance of having some again. 
8    55    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    unr - he had some really good games last year and the backfiekd is uncertain. Should be a little higher.
8    56    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (59) - zero interest
8    57    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (49) - it's hard to be the most embarrassing waste of talent in jacksonville but he managed
8    58    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (64) - perkins seems to be the guy, but vereen still has some potential to be a 800-1000 yard, 60 catch guy with a handful of touchdowns.  
8    59    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (68) - nah
8    60    Danny Woodhead    SD    32.7    (44) - san diego wants him back and he was really good in a role that guys can play into their 30s. Should be higher.
9    61    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    34.4    (53) - should be a little higher just because he's so easy to bench until/unless bell misses a game and then he's so valuable. Better use of a roster spot than younger low upside guys.
 

 

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On 2/7/2017 at 6:53 PM, ZWK said:

4    13    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18)
4    14    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (7)
4    15    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (21)
4    16    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (17)
4    17    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (30)
4    18    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (15)
4    19    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (13)
5    20    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (41)
5    21    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (38)
5    22    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (39)
5    23    Latavius Murray    OAK    26.5    (23)
5    24    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (73)
5    25    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (27)
6    26    Jamaal Charles    KC    30.7    (10)
6    27    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (36)
6    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (57)
6    29    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (19)
6    30    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (42)
6    31    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (22)
6    32    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (55)
6    33    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (24)
6    34    Eddie Lacy    GB    27.2    (8)
7    35    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    unr
7    36    Mike Gillislee    BUF    26.8    (83)
7    37    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (12)
7    38    Karlos Williams    PIT    24.3    (34)
7    39    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (45)
7    40    James White    NE    25.6    (52)
7    41    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (37)
7    42    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (50)
7    43    LeGarrette Blount    NE    30.7    (56)
7    44    Adrian Peterson    MIN    32.4    (16)
7    45    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (29)
7    46    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (40)
7    47    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (46)
7    48    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (43)
7    49    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (32)
8    50    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    unr
8    51    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    unr
8    52    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (48)
8    53    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (69)
8    54    Christine Michael    GB    26.8    (26)
8    55    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    unr
8    56    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (59)
8    57    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (49)
8    58    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (64)
8    59    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (68)
8    60    Danny Woodhead    SD    32.7    (44)
9    61    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    34.4    (53)


4    14    Mark Ingram    NO    27.7    (7)
4    15    C.J. Anderson    DEN    26.6    (21)

4    18    Thomas Rawls    SEA    24.1    (15)

6    27    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    23.6    (36)

5    20    C.J. Prosise    SEA    23.3    (41)
5    21    DeMarco Murray    TEN    29.5    (38)
5    22    Spencer Ware    KC    25.8    (39)

7    39    Paul Perkins    NYG    22.8    (45)
5    23    Latavius Murray    OAK    26.5    (23)
4    16    Giovani Bernard    CIN    25.8    (17)

6    30    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    24.6    (42)
4    17    Tevin Coleman    ATL    24.4    (30)
6    26    Jamaal Charles    KC    30.7    (10)

4    13    Ameer Abdullah    DET    24.2    (18)
4    19    Jeremy Hill    CIN    24.9    (13)

5    25    Dion Lewis    NE    26.9    (27)

7    37    Doug Martin    TB    28.6    (12)

5    24    Rob Kelley    WAS    24.9    (73)

7    35    Ty Montgomery    GB    24.6    unr

6    28    Theo Riddick    DET    26.3    (57)

6    34    Eddie Lacy    GB    27.2    (8)

6    29    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    23.9    (19)
7    47    Devontae Booker    DEN    25.3    (46)
6    31    Duke Johnson    CLE    23.9    (22)

8    51    Jalen Richard    OAK    23.9    unr
8    52    DeAndre Washington    OAK    24.5    (48)
8    53    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    23.6    (69)

 

7    44    Adrian Peterson    MIN    32.4    (16)
7    45    Matt Forte    NYJ    31.7    (29)

7    43    LeGarrette Blount    NE    30.7    (56)
6    32    Terrance West    BAL    26.6    (55)
6    33    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    25.3    (24)

8    55    Jacquizz Rodgers    TB    27.6    unr



8    60    Danny Woodhead    SD    32.7    (44)

7    36    Mike Gillislee    BUF    26.8    (83)

7    38    Karlos Williams    PIT    24.3    (34)
9    61    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    34.4    (53)
7    40    James White    NE    25.6    (52)
7    41    Kenyan Drake    MIA    23.6    (37)
7    42    Bilal Powell    NYJ    28.8    (50)

8    58    Shane Vereen    NYG    28.5    (64)

7    46    Charles Sims    TB    27.0    (40)

 

7    48    Frank Gore    IND    34.3    (43)

7    49    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    30.4    (32)

 

8    50    Chris Thompson    WAS    26.9    unr
8    54    Christine Michael    GB    26.8    (26)
8    56    Darren Sproles    PHI    34.2    (59)
8    57    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (49)
8    59    Zach Zenner    DET    26.0    (68)

 

This is a rough cut reordering based on my last post. I didn't take that long and did it from my phone, so expect mistakes 

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1 hour ago, bostonfred said:

8    57    Chris Ivory    JAX    29.4    (49) - it's hard to be the most embarrassing waste of talent in jacksonville but he managed

:lmao: 

It's very telling that we're 16 rounds and 65 RBs into the 16-team WSL draft in the Mock Drafts forum and he hasn't even gotten a sideways glance yet. He's a complete waste of a roster spot.

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Just a comparison...

The current results of the community based dynasty rankings are:  

OBJ (WR1), Zeke(RB1), Evans(WR2), DJ(RB2), Bell(RB3), & Brown(WR3) so the differences with ZWK are pretty minimal at RB:

Zeke and DJ swapped out at RB1

But a pretty big difference for Antonio Brown:

Antonio Brown (WR #3) versus ZWK's Julio (#3), Cooper(#4), Watkins(#5) and Hopkins(#6) at WR ahead of Brown

 

Zwk, is that more because of belief in those younger WR or a lack of belief in Brown?

 

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I must be way too high with Zenner even the 34 year old gore is worth more in dynasty.  But maybe that's just because I'm in large leagues  (16 or more teams) so mildly productive younger guys have more value. 

Do you think gore has another season in the tank? 

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1 hour ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

:lmao: 

It's very telling that we're 16 rounds and 65 RBs into the 16-team WSL draft in the Mock Drafts forum and he hasn't even gotten a sideways glance yet. He's a complete waste of a roster spot.

Yet I just took the guy ranked lower. :oldunsure:

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On 2/7/2017 at 7:35 PM, menobrown said:

Howard ranking did not even strike me as aggressive.

Maybe it only is for me.

I had Howard rated as a tier 3 prospect pre NFL draft and although I thought he fit with what Fox likes to do, I didn't expect him to be as good as he was, especially how good he was as a receiver as well, I didn't expect that. So to have Howard in the top 10 is a big jump from my perspective, for other people perhaps not so much.

ZWK is a Bears fan also, so I thought he might be a bit more conservative with his ranking of him, I know I see flaws in Vikings players that other people might not notice. So getting a green light with a high ranking suggests to me there were not flaws or reasons (that I might not know) to ding Howard much.

As far as Anderson goes, I do really like him, but yeah he can't seem to stay healthy for a full season for whatever reason, I still feel that Booker may be the better talent there, he wasn't better than Anderson as a rookie, but he was a rookie. Booker will need to make a big jump going into his second season to beat out Anderson. I have no idea what the Bronco's plans are, perhaps they add another RB from the draft who makes both Anderson and Booker an afterthought.

One concern I have about Booker that I likely should have given more consideration is that he was a 24 year old rookie. So 25 in his second season, he might not have as much room to grow and improve as a younger player, what he did last seasons could be close to making out, if so that was not good enough. It will be interesting to see either way if Booker improves a lot or stays about the same.

Andre Ellington was a similar age as Booker entering the NFL. What do people think about how he played in his second season compared to his rookie season? Did he improve much? Or stay about the same?

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7 hours ago, Brisco54 said:

Just a comparison...

The current results of the community based dynasty rankings are:  

OBJ (WR1), Zeke(RB1), Evans(WR2), DJ(RB2), Bell(RB3), & Brown(WR3) so the differences with ZWK are pretty minimal at RB:

Zeke and DJ swapped out at RB1

But a pretty big difference for Antonio Brown:

Antonio Brown (WR #3) versus ZWK's Julio (#3), Cooper(#4), Watkins(#5) and Hopkins(#6) at WR ahead of Brown

 

Zwk, is that more because of belief in those younger WR or a lack of belief in Brown?

It's more about lack of belief in Brown. I think he's likely to be in for a significant decline in numbers if Roethlisberger retires or declines. Also, I don't discount future production as much as most owners do, so that helps younger receivers relative to guys like Brown.

2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

I had Howard rated as a tier 3 prospect pre NFL draft and although I thought he fit with what Fox likes to do, I didn't expect him to be as good as he was, especially how good he was as a receiver as well, I didn't expect that. So to have Howard in the top 10 is a big jump from my perspective, for other people perhaps not so much.

ZWK is a Bears fan also, so I thought he might be a bit more conservative with his ranking of him, I know I see flaws in Vikings players that other people might not notice. So getting a green light with a high ranking suggests to me there were not flaws or reasons (that I might not know) to ding Howard much.

I didn't get to see that much more of Howard than of other RBs, so I don't think you should put much extra weight on my opinion there just because I'm a Bears fan.

A big part of why Howard is so high is that the RB position is relatively weak. Which guys can you look at and confidently say "He will be a starter in 2018?" There are maybe 5-10 RBs that I can say that about, depending on my cutoff for what counts as "confidently". Derrick Henry is in basically the same place that I rated him as a 2nd round rookie, and I think Howard has shown enough to be right there with him.

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2 hours ago, ZWK said:

It's more about lack of belief in Brown. I think he's likely to be in for a significant decline in numbers if Roethlisberger retires or declines.

How likely do you think this is?  I know there was some of the usual hubbub about it but is there really much to that?  He's 34, so if he plays into his late 30's he'll be playing through Brown's fantasy relevant career anyway.

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11 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

How likely do you think this is?  I know there was some of the usual hubbub about it but is there really much to that?  He's 34, so if he plays into his late 30's he'll be playing through Brown's fantasy relevant career anyway.

Not something I'd dismiss as impossible

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Kudos for ZWK for this thread and his rankings, and to all those who are keeping a solid discussion going. Extra kudos to bostonfred for the detailed thoughts PLUS rankings of his own to put his money where his mouth is. 

 

This thread is one of the high points of dynasty discussion all year long in the Shark Pool. 

 

And I just steal your rankings and provide nothing of value in return but a "thank you" ;)

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End-of-season tight end rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 9/1/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    28.3    (1)
2    2    Travis Kelce    KC    27.9    (4)
2    3    Jordan Reed    WAS    27.2    (3)
3    4    Tyler Eifert    CIN    27.0    (2)
3    5    Hunter Henry    SD    22.7    (12)
3    6    Eric Ebron    DET    24.4    (6)
3    7    Zach Ertz    PHI    26.8    (5)
4    8    Greg Olsen    CAR    32.5    (7)
4    9    Jimmy Graham    SEA    30.8    (11)
4    10    Ladarius Green    PIT    27.3    (10)
4    11    Cameron Brate    TB    26.2    (37)
4    12    Delanie Walker    TEN    33.1    (13)
5    13    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    27.8    (27)
5    14    C.J. Fiedorowicz    HOU    25.9    unr
5    15    Martellus Bennett    NE    30.5    (22)
5    16    Vance McDonald    SF    27.2    (30)
5    17    Austin Hooper    ATL    22.8    (18)
5    18    Tyler Higbee    RAM    24.7    (16)
5    19    Dwayne Allen    IND    27.5    (15)
5    20    Maxx Williams    BAL    23.4    (20)
5    21    Clive Walford    OAK    25.9    (19)
5    22    Gary Barnidge    CLE    31.9    (17)
5    23    Zach Miller    CHI    32.9    (36)
5    24    Dennis Pitta    BAL    32.2    (40)
5    25    Julius Thomas    JAX    29.2    (14)
6    26    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    NYJ    24.9    (9)
6    27    Coby Fleener    NO    28.9    (8)
6    28    Jack Doyle    IND    27.3    unr
6    29    Seth DeValve    CLE    24.6    (35)
6    30    Vernon Davis    FA    33.6    (52)
6    31    Charles Clay    BUF    28.5    (23)
6    32    Jared Cook    GB    30.4    (21)
6    33    Jace Amaro    TEN    25.2    (26)
6    34    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    24.8    (32)
6    35    Antonio Gates    SD    37.2    (25)
6    36    Jesse James    PIT    23.2    (39)
6    37    Jason Witten    DAL    35.3    (33)
6    38    Richard Rodgers    GB    25.6    (34)
7    39    Jordan Cameron    MIA    29.1    (24)
7    40    Gavin Escobar    DAL    26.6    (38)
7    41    Jermaine Gresham    ARI    29.2    unr
7    42    Will Tye    NYG    25.8    (28)
7    43    Jerrell Adams    NYG    24.7    unr
7    44    Erik Swoope    IND    25.3    unr
7    45    Troy Niklas    ARI    25.0    (41)
7    46    Nick Vannett    SEA    24.5    (47)
7    47    Jacob Tamme    ATL    33.5    (48)
7    48    Ryan Griffin    HOU    27.6    (42)
7    49    Darren Waller    BAL    25.0    (45)
7    50    Tyler Kroft    CIN    24.9    (50)
7    51    Demetrius Harris    KC    26.1    (51)
7    52    Dion Sims    MIA    26.5    unr
7    53    Stephen Anderson    HOU    24.6    unr
7    54    MyCole Pruitt    CHI    25.4    (31)
7    55    Larry Donnell    FA    28.8    (55)
7    56    Mychal Rivera    OAK    27.0    (53)
7    57    Virgil Green    DEN    29.1    (29)
7    58    Crockett Gilmore    BAL    25.8    (44)

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

4    10    Ladarius Green    PIT    27.3    (10)
5    25    Julius Thomas    JAX    29.2    (14)
6    26    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    NYJ    24.9    (9)
6    27    Coby Fleener    NO    28.9    (8)
6    29    Seth DeValve    CLE    24.6    (35)
6    34    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    24.8    (32)

Please discuss these players.  

Obviously Fleener and orange Julius fell big time but not green?  You have a lot more faith in green than I do.  

Why no AJ Derby?  

I have Ebron but couldn't keep him in the same tier as Eifert or Ertz.  (I'd bump him to Olsen/Graham). 

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6 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

As funny as this for me to say... Hunter Henry needs to be higher. Just don't see myself trading him for any other TE straight-up in dynasty.

*no, I don't own him in any fantasy leagues.

Depending on where they land and the scheme the Big 3 coming in are going to shake this ranking up!

Grab one or two if you can!

Tex

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