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Miller thrived while Watson was starting. In my PPR league, he effective enough (17 fpg avg) to be in the top 15 RBs over those 6 weeks. To the surprise of no one, he was less effective (12 fpg avg) when Watson went down. People are way too quick to bury Miller. He's nothing special and may be overpaid but he fits that offense with Watson.
I really believe you are projecting too high on Mahomes' and Trubisky's potential. They still have to prove themselves in order to be justified to be ranked higher than Brees, Stafford, Roethlisberger, and Rivers.ZWK said:
Miller may need to worry more about who is starting at RB than who is starting at QB. He was essentially benched for a very Meh Alfred Blue the last month of the season, which strangely keeps getting overlooked.
ZWK has said before that he values upside most in QBs in 1 QB leagues, since only elite QBs really differentiate themselves.
That's the one that stood out to me as well. I would take him first of those four personally.-OZ- said:
Very little chance of that, enough to where I don't feel like it will come back to bite me to say basically a zero chance. Alfred Blue is gone, Tyler Ervin is a waste of space, the Texans "think" Foreman will be ready by training camp but it is not a certainty, but they have said he won't be able to do much at all in offseason activities. BOB just said a few days ago:
I agree that the injuries are concerning, but I tend to ignore injuries for the most part when evaluating players. Is alshon injury prone? Maybe. But the man just played 19 games with a torn rotator cuff. He’s tough, too. And should be healthy for week 1.FF Ninja said:
Don't forget Everett, who has a lot now potential than he showed last year. Not to say he'll pan out but everything seems to show that Snead is actively working to get offensive weapons for Goff.
It's not that complicated: He played poorly without Watson. No one would expect Alfred Blue to be as effective as Miller with Deshaun around. Everyone - including Hopkins - suffered with Watson gone. Miller might not be anything special (and is certainly overpaid now) but he wasn't the problem. I'm open to the discussion of Foreman vs Miller, I guess, but I don't see the point.
So what are you saying here, that Miller fit better with Watson and Blue fit better with Savage? Watson getting hurt is an excuse for people to perform less, not an excuse for them to get benched. Hopkins didn't become the Texans' #2 WR because Watson went down.
To me the whole Miller/Foreman debate is kind of pointless, the ultimate answer is very likely neither guy. Miller is overpaid and average and foreman has to overcome that Achilles injury which is no small feat
This is my takeaway on Goff as well. I would say I would echo a bit of surprise at where Garropolo is in the rankings, and I probably wouldn't have Goff ranked as low, but in fairness that's analyzing four slots in the rankings, not really that much difference.
It will be interesting to see if his redzone struggles are an issue with him or with the offense he was running.
I was thinking he was too low. I'd have him #8 behind Mariota. Stafford has a lot of QB1 seasons, but not all that much VBD. The others you named are old enough that you don't need a very high chance that Mahomes is great to justify him above those guys.
I'd attribute it to the weapons he had in 2016 and 2017. He was actually good in 2015. Reed has really been the only plus option he's had in the red zone. DJax is worthless there, and it has never been a strength of Garcon's. Then last year, Pryor was awful in all aspects, and Doctson wasn't much better. Not to mention, they have nothing in the run game.
I complain about Cousins' low ranking every time, but I think Z will use those rushing TDs as a negative (sustainable?). He's tier 2 for me and given his production, he has no business being behind Ryan, Carr, Goff. I'm guessing next round at least 3 rookie QB will be put ahead of him too.
Red zone is something DeFlippo specialized in and still puts a lot of focus on. This was a point of emphasis for Zimmer and the Vikings last season, and they did improve their red zone offense scoring more TD than FG last season. The Eagles had extremely high conversion rate last season.
I value Trubisky almost as much as I did last offseason (compared to WRs or whatever), it's just that other QBs have risen up the rankings and leapfrogged him. Good seasons from Wentz, Watson, Garoppolo, and Goff have shot them up the rankings, and he has also been edged out by good news from Brady (MVP season, and they shipped away Garoppolo), Mahomes (won the starting job over Alex Smith, and hype from guys like Dinsy), and Cousins (huge contract and nice landing spot in Minnesota).
Goff is getting real time coaching on what to look for pre snap and how to adjust, in a real game situation against defenses that are actually trying to respond to it. Then he gets to watch film with McVay and the receivers afterwards and discuss everything he was supposed to see. It's a really powerful way to teach. I expect that this year we'll hear more about Goff making his own adjustments and calling his own audibles, and at some point it will all be Goff.
Plus Cousins will have a better running game in Vikings than Redskins. Dalvin Cook has a nose for endzone throughout his career in FSU (8, 19, and 20 TDs in each college season). Devonta Freeman was splitting rushing duty with Cook when he was freshman year. So I have a full confident in his ability to finish in the redzone.
Agreed.Aznflyer14 said:
They're in the same tier. They're one spot apart. In the words of David Sklansky, "The point is that the decision is close. If you don't like my numbers, choose ones you do like."
Well, I'd argue that you could have two guys at the back end (say QB12 and QB13) and play the matchups and come out ahead of some guys with top 6 QBs. That being said, I have not been good at playing the matchups when I've tried this.
Of those guys, I’d say that Adams and Garçon worry me the least. Adams may not be fast but Rodgers was throwing him deep a lot in 2016 and it was working out, speed or not. Now if you want to be worried about him getting open with him having #1 coverage and no Jordy, that is a worry I can get behind.
Exactly. There are some players on the list who have been pretty successful, despite this so called limitation. If anything, that tells me they could age better than some of their peers who do rely on speed to win.
Does it? I am far from a Jeffery fan but that stat doesn't seem particularly relevant to anything. It has to be the least useful stat out of every stat ever invented. If anything it probably has a completely negative correlation to fantasy success (IE the worse you rate in yards/separation the more likely you are to be a good fantasy player). The list of the worst receivers in yards per separation is like a who's who of guys that will be on future HoF ballots while the best receivers in yards per separation are a bunch of afterthoughts. Ed Dickson is 2nd in the NFL in yards/separation and I'm pretty sure he would run about a 4.8 40 if he were asked to run it at his current age.
Another guy I wouldn’t touch at his price. Go back and look at his highlights in his one good year. There were a ton of balls Bortles threw up and Robinson adjusted while the cb got lost. They weren’t even jump balls. Plus all of the garbage time. I think he needs a lot of polish in the short and medium area still and he’ll never hit so many big plays again.
Value Player Recent VBD Age
502 DeAndre Hopkins 113 26.1 *
408 Michael Thomas 79 25.3 *
399 Jarvis Landry 80 25.6 *
398 Antonio Brown 161 30.0
382 Mike Evans 68 24.9 *
357 Odell Beckham 70 25.7 *+
355 Keenan Allen 75 26.2 *
349 Brandin Cooks 60 24.8 *
341 Davante Adams 64 25.5 *
335 Tyreek Hill 54 24.3 *
295 Stefon Diggs 45 24.6 *
281 Julio Jones 102 29.4
253 JuJu Smith-Schuster 28 21.6 *+
227 Amari Cooper 27 24.0 *
187 Allen Robinson 19 24.9 *+
183 Adam Thielen 48 27.9
171 A.J. Green 68 29.9
167 Doug Baldwin 65 29.8
156 Robby Anderson 21 25.1 *+
156 Sammy Watkins 12 25.0 *+
156 Sterling Shepard 21 25.4 *
146 Robert Woods 23 26.2 *
143 Devin Funchess 18 24.1 *
134 Marvin Jones 39 28.3
124 T.Y. Hilton 38 28.6 +
124 Golden Tate 50 29.9
118 Jordan Matthews 9 26.0 *
103 Demaryius Thomas 46 30.5
102 Nelson Agholor 13 25.1 *
101 Cooper Kupp 13 25.0 *+
99 Alshon Jeffery 28 28.4
95 Larry Fitzgerald 86 34.8
94 Allen Hurns 9 26.6 *
94 Willie Snead 7 25.7 *
84 Jamison Crowder 10 25.0 *
83 Martavis Bryant 6 26.5 *
79 Michael Crabtree 38 30.8
77 Tyrell Williams 9 26.4 *
59 Rishard Matthews 18 28.7
58 Kenny Stills 9 26.2 *
57 Dez Bryant 22 29.7
55 Will Fuller 7 24.2 *
53 Jordy Nelson 37 33.1
53 Randall Cobb 11 27.9
49 Cameron Meredith 5 25.8 +
38 Marqise Lee 6 26.6 *
38 Kelvin Benjamin 7 27.4 *
37 Mohamed Sanu 12 28.8
35 Donte Moncrief 2 24.9
35 Julian Edelman 21 32.1 +
32 Emmanuel Sanders 17 31.2
31 Jermaine Kearse 9 28.4
27 DeVante Parker 4 25.4
27 Marquise Goodwin 6 27.6 *
26 Chris Hogan 10 29.7
24 John Brown 4 28.2 +
24 Terrelle Pryor 8 29.0 +
23 Brandon Marshall 19 34.2 +
21 Eric Decker 11 31.3 +
21 Jeremy Maclin 9 30.1 +
20 Pierre Garcon 12 31.9 +
19 Josh Gordon 4 27.2 *+
17 Kenny Britt 6 29.7 +
16 Mike Wallace 10 31.9
15 Paul Richardson 2 26.2 *
13 DeSean Jackson 7 31.5
12 Ted Ginn 8 33.2
I basically agree (although I wouldn't go all-in on barbell theory). Fitzgerald, Edelman, and Garcon are guys that I'm looking to buy right now.
Reinforces my long-held belief that for WRs (and TEs) in dynasty, the "barbell theory" is the way to go - anyone on your roster who's not a young stud should be either a highly productive 30+ yo vet or a young guy with some chance of developing into a stud, even if that chance is relatively small. It costs virtually nothing to acquire the Fitzes and Garcons, and even one year of plug-and-play WR1/2 production from those types buys you another year of development from your stable full of Lees / Merediths / Richardsons / Enunwas ... and hopefully a breakout or two.
