ZWK 1,994 Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 On 1/19/2020 at 4:10 AM, -OZ- said: On 1/5/2020 at 4:27 PM, ZWK said: 6 24 Jonnu Smith TEN 25.0 (42) I get that it's partly hometown bias, but Jonnu looks really low. I'd have him up there with the Alabama TEs Irv and Howard (although OJ was a huge disappointment). What don't you like? You did move him up, so maybe he's gaining traction? Jonnu Smith just hasn't been producing very much. He has been in the NFL for 3 years, and has 0 VBD to show for it (even by my formula had 21 TEs with positive VBD this year because it uses ppg and a fuzzy baseline). Playing behind Delanie Walker could hurt his numbers, but Walker was out for almost all of 2018 and the majority of 2019. In 2017 & 2018 it wasn't just about lack of volume - Smith's efficiency numbers and PFF grade were also mediocre to bad. In 2019 he finally had pretty good efficiency numbers (YPT, DVOA, PFF grade), but he's still well behind the pace of what good TEs usually show in their first 3 seasons. The best fantasy TEs since 1997 who had 0 VBD through 3 seasons are Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Chad Lewis, Jermaine Wiggins, Darren Waller, and Gary Barnidge. Pretty rare, especially when you aren't stuck behind a Pro Bowler. And most great fantasy TEs were already putting up big numbers within their first 3 seasons, although it's not uncommon for them to just be low-end fantasy starters at that point (e.g., Kelce, Ertz, Clark, Olsen, V Davis). My formulaic TE projections have Jonnu unranked, because by year 3 they're looking for fantasy production (whereas through 2 seasons they're also looking for signs of promise like draft pick and good receiving efficiency). My subjective rankings have him at 24 (and up to 23 since I posted), giving him credit for those efficiency numbers and for being a TE2 with some opportunity & some hype (and borderline startable once Walker went out). I can rerun my TE projections formula with some generous adjustments to give him credit for those things. I just did that, where: * I credited him with 4.5 VBD for this year rather than 0, which is what he'd get based on the 8.1 ppg over 13 games that he produced weeks 7-20 without Delanie Walker * I pretended that 2019 was just his 2nd season rather than his 3rd so that my formula would give him credit for his efficiency numbers as well (in other words, I treated him as pick 100 of the 2018 draft instead of the 2017 draft) With those adjustments, my formula projected him for 62 career VBD, which put him at TE20 between Will Dissly and Foster Moreau. That's pretty close to where I had him in my subjective rankings. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
-OZ- 8,124 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, ZWK said: Jonnu Smith just hasn't been producing very much. He has been in the NFL for 3 years, and has 0 VBD to show for it (even by my formula had 21 TEs with positive VBD this year because it uses ppg and a fuzzy baseline). Playing behind Delanie Walker could hurt his numbers, but Walker was out for almost all of 2018 and the majority of 2019. In 2017 & 2018 it wasn't just about lack of volume - Smith's efficiency numbers and PFF grade were also mediocre to bad. In 2019 he finally had pretty good efficiency numbers (YPT, DVOA, PFF grade), but he's still well behind the pace of what good TEs usually show in their first 3 seasons. The best fantasy TEs since 1997 who had 0 VBD through 3 seasons are Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Chad Lewis, Jermaine Wiggins, Darren Waller, and Gary Barnidge. Pretty rare, especially when you aren't stuck behind a Pro Bowler. And most great fantasy TEs were already putting up big numbers within their first 3 seasons, although it's not uncommon for them to just be low-end fantasy starters at that point (e.g., Kelce, Ertz, Clark, Olsen, V Davis). My formulaic TE projections have Jonnu unranked, because by year 3 they're looking for fantasy production (whereas through 2 seasons they're also looking for signs of promise like draft pick and good receiving efficiency). My subjective rankings have him at 24 (and up to 23 since I posted), giving him credit for those efficiency numbers and for being a TE2 with some opportunity & some hype (and borderline startable once Walker went out). I can rerun my TE projections formula with some generous adjustments to give him credit for those things. I just did that, where: * I credited him with 4.5 VBD for this year rather than 0, which is what he'd get based on the 8.1 ppg over 13 games that he produced weeks 7-20 without Delanie Walker * I pretended that 2019 was just his 2nd season rather than his 3rd so that my formula would give him credit for his efficiency numbers as well (in other words, I treated him as pick 100 of the 2018 draft instead of the 2017 draft) With those adjustments, my formula projected him for 62 career VBD, which put him at TE20 between Will Dissly and Foster Moreau. That's pretty close to where I had him in my subjective rankings. Thanks. I do like your methodology. Just happen to disagree with the result here - but I'll readily admit my bias. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 Offseason RB rankings. PPR, start 2 RB, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 5/2/19. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 24.2 (2) 1 2 Saquon Barkley NYG 23.6 (1) 2 3 Alvin Kamara NO 25.1 (3) 2 4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 25.1 (4) 3 5 Nick Chubb CLE 24.7 (9) 3 6 Dalvin Cook MIN 25.1 (11) 3 7 Joe Mixon CIN 24.1 (7) 4 8 Josh Jacobs LV 22.6 (15) 4 9 Derrick Henry FA (TEN) 26.1 (17) 4 10 Aaron Jones GB 25.7 (18) 5 11 Austin Ekeler LAC 25.3 (40) 5 12 Chris Carson SEA 26.0 (21) 5 13 Leonard Fournette JAX 25.6 (12) 5 14 Miles Sanders PHI 23.3 (24) 5 15 Melvin Gordon FA (LAC) 27.4 (5) 5 16 Todd Gurley RAM 26.1 (6) 5 17 LeVeon Bell NYJ 28.5 (8) 5 18 Kareem Hunt CLE 25.1 (16) 6 19 Kenyan Drake FA (ARI) 26.6 (37) 6 20 Kerryon Johnson DET 23.2 (13) 6 21 James Conner PIT 25.3 (14) 6 22 Devin Singletary BUF 23.0 (49) 6 23 Marlon Mack IND 24.5 (22) 6 24 Phillip Lindsay DEN 26.1 (27) 6 25 David Montgomery CHI 23.2 (25) 7 26 Derrius Guice WAS 23.2 (23) 7 27 Raheem Mostert SF 28.4 (98) 7 28 Ronald Jones II TB 23.1 (39) 7 29 Mark Ingram BAL 30.7 (33) 7 30 David Johnson ARI 28.7 (10) 7 31 Darrell Henderson LAR 23.0 (28) 7 32 Tarik Cohen CHI 25.1 (30) 7 33 Damien Williams KC 28.4 (19) 7 34 James White NE 28.6 (31) 7 35 Rashaad Penny SEA 24.6 (26) 7 36 Devonta Freeman ATL 28.5 (29) 7 37 Sony Michel NE 25.5 (20) 8 38 Damien Harris NE 23.6 (32) 8 39 Tony Pollard DAL 23.3 (79) 8 40 Tevin Coleman SF 27.4 (36) 8 41 Duke Johnson HOU 26.9 (47) 8 42 Matt Breida SF 25.5 (41) 8 43 Lamar Miller FA (HOU) 29.4 (34) 8 44 Royce Freeman DEN 24.5 (42) 8 45 Jamaal Williams GB 25.4 (64) 8 46 Alexander Mattison MIN 22.2 (50) 8 47 Nyheim Hines IND 23.8 (38) 8 48 Boston Scott PHI 25.3 (114) 8 49 Bryce Love WAS 23.2 (44) 8 50 Justice Hill BAL 22.8 (43) 8 51 Latavius Murray NO 29.5 (46) 8 52 Benny Snell PIT 22.5 (65) 8 53 Jordan Howard FA (PHI) 25.8 (52) 8 54 DeAndre Washington FA (LV) 27.5 (104) 8 55 Carlos Hyde FA (HOU) 29.9 (58) 9 56 Jaylen Samuels PIT 24.1 (60) 9 57 Jerick McKinnon SF 28.3 (35) 9 58 Chase Edmonds ARI 24.4 (85) 9 59 Adrian Peterson WAS 35.4 (77) 9 60 Darwin Thompson KAN 23.6 (72) 9 61 Chris Thompson WAS 29.9 (57) 9 62 Jalen Richard LV 26.9 (48) 9 63 Gus Edwards BAL 25.4 (63) 9 64 Malcolm Brown RAM 27.3 (61) 9 65 Ryquell Armstead JAX 23.8 (66) 9 66 Ito Smith ATL 25.0 (69) 9 67 Justin Jackson LAC 25.4 (106) 10 68 Rodney Anderson CIN 24.0 (111) 10 69 Mike Boone MIN 25.2 unr 10 70 Jonathan Williams IND 26.6 (125) 10 71 Rex Burkhead NE 30.2 (90) 10 72 Reggie Bonnafon CAR 24.7 unr 10 73 Wayne Gallman NYG 25.9 (127) 10 74 Peyton Barber TB 26.5 (45) 10 75 Marshawn Lynch 34.4 (136) 10 76 Bo Scarbrough DET 23.9 unr 10 77 Darrel Williams KC 25.4 (76) 10 78 J.D. McKissic DET 27.0 (122) 10 79 Qadree Ollison ATL 23.8 (74) 10 80 Jeffery Wilson SF 24.8 unr 10 81 Jordan Wilkins IND 26.1 (88) 10 82 Isaiah Crowell FA (LV) 27.6 (82) 10 83 Mike Davis 27.5 (75) 10 84 Dion Lewis TEN 29.9 (55) 10 85 Trayveon Williams CIN 22.9 (109) 10 86 Dare Ogunbowale TB 26.3 unr 10 87 Giovani Bernard CIN 28.8 (56) 10 88 Ty Montgomery NYJ 27.6 (94) 11 89 Corey Clement PHI 25.8 (83) 11 90 Patrick Laird MIA 25.0 unr 11 91 LeSean McCoy KC 32.1 (53) 11 92 Jay Ajayi 27.2 (54) 11 93 Theo Riddick 29.3 (68) 11 94 Frank Gore FA (BUF) 37.3 (81) 11 95 Travis Homer SEA 22.1 (134) 11 96 Dontrell Hilliard CLE 25.5 unr 11 97 Ty Johnson DET 23.0 (93) 11 98 C.J. Anderson 29.6 (51) 11 99 C.J. Prosise 26.3 (120) 11 100 T.J. Yeldon 26.9 (62) 11 101 Myles Gaskin MIA 23.5 (108) 11 102 Brian Hill ATL 24.8 (139) 11 103 Josh Adams PHI 23.8 (95) 11 104 Wendell Smallwood PHI 26.6 (80) 11 105 Kalen Ballage MIA 24.7 (70) 11 106 Dexter Williams GB 23.7 (110) 11 107 Kerrith Whyte PIT 23.8 (99) 11 108 Kenneth Dixon 26.6 (67) 11 109 Jordan Scarlett CAR 24.6 (112) It feels like I could keep tinkering with these forever, but I'll get something posted now. I keep feeling dissatisfied with my rankings within tiers 5 (RB11-18) and 7 (RB26-37), no matter how I reshuffle them. It might just mean that those guys are bunched pretty close together. There aren't huge differences between my rankings and others that I've seen. I'm somewhat higher on Chris Carson, Raheem Mostert, Lamar Miller, and Damien Harris. And I'm lower on David Montgomery, Sony Michel, Miles Sanders, Alexander Mattison, Ito Smith, and Justice Hill. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,140 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 On 1/21/2020 at 5:58 PM, -OZ- said: Thanks. I do like your methodology. Just happen to disagree with the result here - but I'll readily admit my bias. I love Jonnu Smith and I am hoping he ends up being more productive for fantasy in years ahead, but the fact remains that he hasn't delivered yet. For the guys ZWK compares him to as far as being productive after their 1st 3 seasons in the league, Walker seems the closest comparison as he had Vernon Davis ahead of him for his first few seasons and didn't get enough opportunity until he changed teams. I could see Jonnu being a 4th year break out I guess. No reason to project him higher than he has been though really. The main thing I have always liked about Jonnu is his versatility. His blocking ability may be working against him in some ways compared to a TE whos only plus ability is as a receiver. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
menobrown 3,948 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Regarding Jonnu. I own him in an FFPC league, so TE premium, and can't even get a third round rookie pick for him. I even resorted to taking to league message board asking for a third this year or next and still nothing. He's probably a better NFL player then fantasy player because he can block well. Most TE's who actually get a shot to play, who are not buried behind someone, take significant steps in year two or they usually don't. He's had more then his fair share of chances. As ZWK pointed out Delanie missed all but one game of 2018 and this year played in just 7 games averaging 28 snaps and 4.4 targets a game. So Delanie has barely been an obstacle for the past two seasons. Over the past two seasons Jonnu has averaged 47.4 snaps a game but is getting a paltry 2.7 targets a game. In order for him to be remotely trustworthy or useful in fantasy this target per game number needs to almost double and I see no reason for that kind of optimism and even if did double he's probably a weak TE1 at best. Counting playoffs over the last two seasons he's had basically a season and half of games were Delanie did not take a snap. 24 games. 75 targets, 54 catches, 602 yards and 7 TD's. Again that might be low end TE1 stats for a whole season, that's 1.5 seasons. You can try and blame it on Mariotta but he's got 12 full games with no Delanie and Tannehill as his QB. 47/35/356/4 in those 12 games and what's worse is he goose egged 1/4th of those games despite getting 50+ snaps. Out of everything I could say negative about the guy in fantasy this is the one thing that bothers me the most. All in all just seems like a guy who if things go right, might hit around the high 40/low 50 catch mark. Replacement level, low value player to me who it looks like I'll be flat cutting in a TE premium league. Now if you like him and want to think positive maybe he's just a slow learner and will continue to improve. Just not seeing it myself, looks like a solid NFL starting TE to me, a backup fantasy TE with a floor so low he goose egged 25% of his games with his current QB. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
-OZ- 8,124 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, menobrown said: Regarding Jonnu. I own him in an FFPC league, so TE premium, and can't even get a third round rookie pick for him. I even resorted to taking to league message board asking for a third this year or next and still nothing. He's probably a better NFL player then fantasy player because he can block well. Most TE's who actually get a shot to play, who are not buried behind someone, take significant steps in year two or they usually don't. He's had more then his fair share of chances. As ZWK pointed out Delanie missed all but one game of 2018 and this year played in just 7 games averaging 28 snaps and 4.4 targets a game. So Delanie has barely been an obstacle for the past two seasons. Over the past two seasons Jonnu has averaged 47.4 snaps a game but is getting a paltry 2.7 targets a game. In order for him to be remotely trustworthy or useful in fantasy this target per game number needs to almost double and I see no reason for that kind of optimism and even if did double he's probably a weak TE1 at best. Counting playoffs over the last two seasons he's had basically a season and half of games were Delanie did not take a snap. 24 games. 75 targets, 54 catches, 602 yards and 7 TD's. Again that might be low end TE1 stats for a whole season, that's 1.5 seasons. You can try and blame it on Mariotta but he's got 12 full games with no Delanie and Tannehill as his QB. 47/35/356/4 in those 12 games and what's worse is he goose egged 1/4th of those games despite getting 50+ snaps. Out of everything I could say negative about the guy in fantasy this is the one thing that bothers me the most. All in all just seems like a guy who if things go right, might hit around the high 40/low 50 catch mark. Replacement level, low value player to me who it looks like I'll be flat cutting in a TE premium league. Now if you like him and want to think positive maybe he's just a slow learner and will continue to improve. Just not seeing it myself, looks like a solid NFL starting TE to me, a backup fantasy TE with a floor so low he goose egged 25% of his games with his current QB. I'll agree that he's probably better for the Titans than your FF team. Fwiw, in my ongoing dynasty auction he went for just a little less than Ian Thomas and Mostert; a bit more than the 2.02 (16 teams) (not by me) Edited February 17, 2020 by -OZ- Quote Link to post Share on other sites
menobrown 3,948 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, -OZ- said: I'll agree that he's probably better for the Titans than your FF team. Fwiw, in my ongoing dynasty auction he went for just a little less than Ian Thomas and Mostert; a bit more than the 2.02 (16 teams) (not by me) He does have people who like him so can't say I'm surprised. Want to say the one redraft I've done this year, FFPC Best Ball, he went in like round 8 or 9. I had another league, again FFPC, where someone traded Devante Parker for Jonnu and 3.1. I'm honestly surprised I can't get a third for him but on the other hand I can't say I blame people, as I described. But funny to me that the league I referenced I got to cut him if I can't get a decent trade offer I am carrying Ian Thomas and once Olsen left I never gave not keeping Thomas any consideration. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Biabreakable 5,140 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, menobrown said: He does have people who like him so can't say I'm surprised. Want to say the one redraft I've done this year, FFPC Best Ball, he went in like round 8 or 9. I had another league, again FFPC, where someone traded Devante Parker for Jonnu and 3.1. I'm honestly surprised I can't get a third for him but on the other hand I can't say I blame people, as I described. But funny to me that the league I referenced I got to cut him if I can't get a decent trade offer I am carrying Ian Thomas and once Olsen left I never gave not keeping Thomas any consideration. In my experience it is just plain hard to sell a TE. The dynamics of cutting to 16 players completely squeezes out guys who have unrealized potential. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheWinz 2,925 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 hours ago, ZWK said: Offseason RB rankings. PPR, start 2 RB, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/20. Prev from 5/2/19. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Christian McCaffrey CAR 24.2 (2) 1 2 Saquon Barkley NYG 23.6 (1) 2 3 Alvin Kamara NO 25.1 (3) 2 4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 25.1 (4) 3 5 Nick Chubb CLE 24.7 (9) 3 6 Dalvin Cook MIN 25.1 (11) 3 7 Joe Mixon CIN 24.1 (7) 4 8 Josh Jacobs LV 22.6 (15) 4 9 Derrick Henry FA (TEN) 26.1 (17) 4 10 Aaron Jones GB 25.7 (18) 5 11 Austin Ekeler LAC 25.3 (40) 5 12 Chris Carson SEA 26.0 (21) I haven't read the entire thread, so forgive me. I am a redraft guy. Does your formula allow you to rank for current year only? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, TheWinz said: I haven't read the entire thread, so forgive me. I am a redraft guy. Does your formula allow you to rank for current year only? These are my opinions rather than a formula. You can get early 2020 redraft rankings from Fantasy Pros here or here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheWinz 2,925 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ZWK said: These are my opinions rather than a formula. You can get early 2020 redraft rankings from Fantasy Pros here or here. Yes, i have visited and already done some mocks. I was simply wondering if you based your rankings on a formula of some sort, and if that formula could be broken down to a year by year rank? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
voiceofunreason 1,039 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Ekeler has to drop a lot with Rivers leaving. His receiving numbers could take a nose dive. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheWinz 2,925 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 34 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said: Ekeler has to drop a lot with Rivers leaving. His receiving numbers could take a nose dive. A lot is in play to determine Ekeler's value. Who will QB the Bolts? Will Gordon stay? What about Hunter Henry? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 Last year Ekeler was RB5 in fantasy production, so I already have him discounted pretty far below that. He's ranked about where he would be if you expected his future production to be about halfway in between his 2018 and his 2019. And his success wasn't just about getting peppered with targets - he has been a really good receiving back, for his whole NFL career. That comes through in all his stats (YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF grade). There is a lot of uncertainty for him. Who plays QB this year, whether Gordon comes back (or gets replaced by someone who will get a big workload), whether the Chargers find a 3rd WR. And the following year he hits free agency, and then maybe Andy Reid brings him to KC to be the next Westbrook/McCoy or maybe he goes to a team that doesn't know what to do with him. So there's uncertainty both upwards and downwards. And there's also plenty of uncertainty for other guys in his tier. Does Chris Carson remain the workhorse? Is he the kind of back that can keep it up for a long career or more of a Rudi Johnson type? Does Fournette keep getting heavy usage in the passing game? Is he mainly coasting on draft capital and due for a reality check once his rookie contract runs out? Were the flashes of talent that Miles Sanders showed signs of what's to come, or is his lousy PFF grade and mediocre rushing DVOA more representative of who he is? Is Philly going to keep using a committee backfield? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Just Win Baby 2,611 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 hours ago, TheWinz said: 8 hours ago, voiceofunreason said: Ekeler has to drop a lot with Rivers leaving. His receiving numbers could take a nose dive. A lot is in play to determine Ekeler's value. Who will QB the Bolts? Will Gordon stay? What about Hunter Henry? And Ekeler himself is a RFA. I assume the Chargers will retain him for 2020, but it is theoretically possible he could be elsewhere. For example, suppose they offer him a second round tender; could another team be willing to pony up and sign him to a contract the Chargers will not match? Or will the Chargers put a first round tender on him and pay him $4.7M this year? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,990 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Why are you lower on Miles Sanders? He's basically proved a floor as a rookie as a pass catcher. I find that an easier projection going forward than Josh Jacobs proving his floor as a rusher, yet pass catches get more points. Just for comparison's sake between yours and my rankings, we basically have Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders flipped around. Miles Sanders went 13.79 PPG while Jacobs went 12.10 PPG. I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots. Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in. Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JoeJoe88 502 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, Zyphros said: I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots. Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in. Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation. Agree here for sure. And he's actually still 23, doesn't turn 24 for a couple weeks. Imagine if Rivers goes there? He loves throwing to his running backs more than anybody. I could see Mack getting up to that 40+ reception mark. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Zyphros said: Why are you lower on Miles Sanders? He's basically proved a floor as a rookie as a pass catcher. I find that an easier projection going forward than Josh Jacobs proving his floor as a rusher, yet pass catches get more points. Just for comparison's sake between yours and my rankings, we basically have Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders flipped around. Miles Sanders went 13.79 PPG while Jacobs went 12.10 PPG. I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots. Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in. Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation. Interesting to see these criticisms paired. Mack is as low as he is because he's an awful receiver. He had 14 receptions this year, 1 per game. His career high season through 3 years is 21 receptions, 1.5 per game. He has awful YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF receiving grade. He was a low-end fantasy RB2 this year despite his strong rushing numbers because of his lack of receiving production. He has 75 career VBD so far (by my calculation), basically the same as fellow 2017 4th round pick Tarik Cohen. With Jacobs, the Raiders brought him in to be the man, drafted him in the first round, gave him a big workload, and he did really well with it. PFF had him as one of the top RBs in the league. It seems like we have a lot of evidence that he's a good RB and that he'll get at least a pretty big role. You're right to point to receiving as the biggest concern, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty there. He did ok with the targets he got. With Sanders there's a lot more uncertainty about how good he is on the whole and how big a role he'll have going forward. Drafted a round later, played behind Jordan Howard for much of the year, had unimpressive rushing stats according to DVOA and PFF grade. His receiving is his biggest strength so far and it's why I have him as high as I do (rather than down near Singletary & Montgomery). But one season of good receiving production is not enough to establish a proven floor, he'll have to be good enough to stay on the field and get those targets, and other guys like Boston Scott could eat into his targets. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
barackdhouse 2,208 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, ZWK said: Interesting to see these criticisms paired. Mack is as low as he is because he's an awful receiver. He had 14 receptions this year, 1 per game. His career high season through 3 years is 21 receptions, 1.5 per game. He has awful YPT, receiving DVOA, PFF receiving grade. He was a low-end fantasy RB2 this year despite his strong rushing numbers because of his lack of receiving production. He has 75 career VBD so far (by my calculation), basically the same as fellow 2017 4th round pick Tarik Cohen. With Jacobs, the Raiders brought him in to be the man, drafted him in the first round, gave him a big workload, and he did really well with it. PFF had him as one of the top RBs in the league. It seems like we have a lot of evidence that he's a good RB and that he'll get at least a pretty big role. You're right to point to receiving as the biggest concern, but there's still a fair amount of uncertainty there. He did ok with the targets he got. With Sanders there's a lot more uncertainty about how good he is on the whole and how big a role he'll have going forward. Drafted a round later, played behind Jordan Howard for much of the year, had unimpressive rushing stats according to DVOA and PFF grade. His receiving is his biggest strength so far and it's why I have him as high as I do (rather than down near Singletary & Montgomery). But one season of good receiving production is not enough to establish a proven floor, he'll have to be good enough to stay on the field and get those targets, and other guys like Boston Scott could eat into his targets. Any insight as to whether this improved for Sanders from the beginning to the end of the season? He sure looked good later on. Not sure if the data support that or not. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Just Win Baby 2,611 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, barackdhouse said: Any insight as to whether this improved for Sanders from the beginning to the end of the season? He sure looked good later on. Not sure if the data support that or not. I checked Sanders' PFF grades game by game. He was definitely better after the first 7 games, but his rushing grades still weren't good. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 9,187 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 hours ago, Zyphros said: I'd also move Mack up by about 10 spots. Seems awfully low for a 25 year old where the chatter is to bring a vet QB in. Rivers would be an awesome fit for him, but that's pure speculation. Mack's age isn't that relevant because it's likely that his ability is what will end his fantasy usefulness, not his age. On top of that these guys that don't catch are such great sells any time you can sell them. The fantasy community turns on them SO fast. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,990 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Mack was such a good pass catcher in college, I doubt it's because he's not good there and more a play calling/situation type of deal that has limited that ability. That's just a guess though, but it would be interesting to dive into that and see. Hines is behind him who is a special pass catcher doesn't exactly help either. Guess I'm still hopeful he finds a workhose role instead of just a rusher. I think his age contributes to that being possible. FA 2021. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted February 19, 2020 Author Share Posted February 19, 2020 I'm surprised that Mack is the guy on that tier that I'm getting pushback on. Conner was a RB1 in 2018 and again through the first half of 2019 before getting injured, missing some games, and struggling in the few games that he played. Kenyan Drake won some championships, going on a tear after he joined Arizona. He may or may not be back in Arizona but at least he won't be back in Miami. David Montgomery was an early first round rookie pick just a year ago and quickly won the lead RB role; he didn't have that great a rookie year but the Bears' offense left something to be desired. Singletary was drafted the pick after Montgomery in the NFL draft, was initially not highly regarded by the fantasy community, but had the second best rookie season by any RB last year and earned a big workload by the end of the season. All of those guys have more upside than Mack, I think (though some also have more risk or age). I looked back at some numbers & scouting reports on Mack coming into the league and they weren't exactly glowing about his receiving (although they also didn't suggest that he'd be as awful as he has been). He has now spent as long in Indianapolis as he did in South Florida, so I wouldn't put much weight on his college stuff. And his receiving with the Colts hasn't even risen to the level of his teammates Frank Gore, Jordan Wilkins, and Jonathan Williams (even setting aside Nyheim Hines), so I don't have much optimism for his receiving (beyond a little regression towards the mean). 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tangfoot 2,001 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 I don't even like Mack but I'd likely put him at the end of Tier 5 ahead of everyone you have in Teir 6. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
voiceofunreason 1,039 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, tangfoot said: I don't even like Mack but I'd likely put him at the end of Tier 5 ahead of everyone you have in Teir 6. Mack strikes me as a guy who wont be around in a couple of years or in the worse half of a RBBC. Could be wrong but not someone I'd own. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
thriftyrocker 371 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 hours ago, voiceofunreason said: Mack strikes me as a guy who wont be around in a couple of years or in the worse half of a RBBC. True for most RB. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted March 17, 2020 Author Share Posted March 17, 2020 Initial reactions on some FA/trade moves. Moving down WR3-->WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI - everyone's assuming that it's just a BOB blunder, but being traded for a 2nd rounder ought to raise at least a bit of concern about the player Moving up RB19-->RB16 Kenyan Drake ARI? - Arizona is a great place to be for him, and his odds of staying put have gone up TE19-->TE11 Hayden Hurst ATL - I was higher than most on him based on potential talent, and now he gets an ideal opportunity Quote Link to post Share on other sites
kutta 5,525 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 21 hours ago, ZWK said: Initial reactions on some FA/trade moves. Moving down WR3-->WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI - everyone's assuming that it's just a BOB blunder, but being traded for a 2nd rounder ought to raise at least a bit of concern about the player Moving up RB19-->RB16 Kenyan Drake ARI? - Arizona is a great place to be for him, and his odds of staying put have gone up TE19-->TE11 Hayden Hurst ATL - I was higher than most on him based on potential talent, and now he gets an ideal opportunity I agree with everything, except the reasoning behind the Hopkins downgrade. We’ve seen Hopkins for a while now, and most experts don’t see many weaknesses in his game. He’s a pure stud of a WR. I could see downgrading him because of the unknown in AZ, but I don’t agree the trade may mean there’s a problem with him as a WR. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
JoeJoe88 502 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 21 hours ago, ZWK said: WR3-->WR6 DeAndre Hopkins ARI - everyone's assuming that it's just a BOB blunder I’ve seen the decisions BOB has made the last few years on and off the field. I’ll stick with it being a blunder. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted March 18, 2020 Author Share Posted March 18, 2020 Well, I guess the good news here is that it shouldn't be too hard to trade Hopkins for those who agree with my take. I'm pretty confident of this one. Generally it's a bad sign about a player when he gets traded away, less so if there's a really clear reason that's not about his talent (like with Buckner & Hurst), more so if he gets traded for less than he seems to be worth. Another way to look at this: my best guess about what Hopkins could've fetched in a trade, if the Texans had carefully shopped him around and taken the best draft pick haul, is lower now than it was a week ago. And what he could've fetched in a trade reflects what NFL teams think of him, and they know things that we don't. And that should weigh down his value, at least a little. Enough for me to prefer Moore, Adams, and Hill. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edgar 245 Posted March 18, 2020 Share Posted March 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, ZWK said: Well, I guess the good news here is that it shouldn't be too hard to trade Hopkins for those who agree with my take. I'm pretty confident of this one. Generally it's a bad sign about a player when he gets traded away, less so if there's a really clear reason that's not about his talent (like with Buckner & Hurst), more so if he gets traded for less than he seems to be worth. Another way to look at this: my best guess about what Hopkins could've fetched in a trade, if the Texans had carefully shopped him around and taken the best draft pick haul, is lower now than it was a week ago. And what he could've fetched in a trade reflects what NFL teams think of him, and they know things that we don't. And that should weigh down his value, at least a little. Enough for me to prefer Moore, Adams, and Hill. BOB has gotten bent over on every trade, so I’m not at all down on Hopkins for only netting a second (or less). Do we really think Diggs is worth triple that of Hopkins? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Dez 1,100 Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 No post draft updates ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted May 17, 2020 Author Share Posted May 17, 2020 56 minutes ago, Dez said: No post draft updates ? I haven't gotten around to updating any of my positional rankings. I did post rookie rankings in my other thread, here and continued here. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZWK 1,994 Posted October 9, 2020 Author Share Posted October 9, 2020 WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted rankings were 1/10/20. These are a little rushed compared to my offseason rankings; in the offseason I get to spend a few days tinkering with them until they look right. Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev 1 1 Michael Thomas NO 27.5 (1) 1 2 Calvin Ridley ATL 25.8 (12) 1 3 D.K. Metcalf SEA 22.8 (17) 1 4 CeeDee Lamb DAL 21.5 (20) 1 5 Tyreek Hill KC 26.6 (5) 1 6 Davante Adams GB 27.8 (4) 1 7 DeAndre Hopkins ARI 28.3 (6) 1 8 Amari Cooper DAL 26.3 (8) 2 9 Terry McLaurin WAS 25.1 (26) 2 10 Chris Godwin TB 24.6 (2) 2 11 D.J. Moore CAR 23.5 (3) 2 12 Mike Evans TB 27.1 (7) 2 13 A.J. Brown TEN 23.3 (11) 2 14 Stefon Diggs BUF 26.9 (23) 2 15 Keenan Allen LAC 28.4 (18) 2 16 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 23.9 (14) 2 17 Justin Jefferson MIN 21.3 (25) 2 18 Kenny Golladay DET 26.9 (13) 2 19 D.J. Chark JAX 24.0 (16) 2 20 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 27.9 (10) 3 21 Allen Robinson CHI 27.1 (22) 3 22 Cooper Kupp RAM 27.3 (24) 3 23 Tyler Lockett SEA 28.0 (36) 3 24 Tyler Boyd CIN 25.9 (31) 3 25 Henry Ruggs LV 21.7 (27) 3 26 Courtland Sutton DEN 25.0 (9) 3 27 Deebo Samuel SFO 24.7 (19) 3 28 Robert Woods RAM 28.5 (30) 3 29 Jerry Jeudy DEN 21.5 (21) 3 30 Julio Jones ATL 31.7 (15) 4 31 Brandon Aiyuk SF 22.6 (29) 4 32 Tee Higgins CIN 21.7 (33) 4 33 Marquise Brown BAL 23.3 (28) 4 34 Diontae Johnson PIT 23.9 (38) 4 35 Adam Thielen MIN 30.1 (42) 4 36 Laviska Shenault JAX 22.0 (39) 4 37 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 23.0 (34) 4 38 DeVante Parker MIA 27.7 (40) 4 39 Robby Anderson CAR 27.4 (56) 4 40 Jalen Reagor PHI 21.8 (35) 4 41 Michael Gallup DAL 24.6 (32) 4 42 Jarvis Landry CLE 27.9 (37) 4 43 Chase Claypool PIT 22.3 (43) 4 44 Will Fuller HOU 26.5 (47) 5 45 Darius Slayton NYG 23.7 (55) 5 46 Denzel Mims NYJ 23.0 (46) 5 47 Allen Lazard GB 24.8 (79) 5 48 Christian Kirk ARI 23.9 (41) 5 49 Jamison Crowder NYJ 27.3 (81) 5 50 Mecole Hardman KAN 23.6 (52) 5 51 N'Keal Harry NE 22.8 (53) 5 52 Julian Edelman NE 34.4 (59) 5 53 Mike Williams LAC 26.0 (45) 5 54 Bryan Edwards LV 21.9 (50) 5 55 Sterling Shepard NYG 27.7 (49) 5 56 Andy Isabella ARI 23.9 (62) 5 57 John Brown BUF 30.5 (70) 5 58 Brandin Cooks RAM 27.0 (48) 5 59 A.J. Green CIN 32.2 (51) 5 60 Gabriel Davis BUF 21.5 (90) 5 61 Parris Campbell IND 23.2 (57) 5 62 KJ Hamler DEN 21.3 (58) 6 63 T.Y. Hilton IND 30.9 (44) 6 64 Corey Davis TEN 25.7 (73) 6 65 Preston Williams MIA 23.5 (60) 6 66 Van Jefferson LAR 24.2 (66) 6 67 Anthony Miller CHI 26.0 (65) 6 68 Marvin Jones DET 30.6 (64) 6 69 Darnell Mooney CHI 22.9 (119) 6 70 Hunter Renfrow LV 24.8 (78) 6 71 Devin Duvernay BAL 23.1 (69) 6 72 Russell Gage ATL 24.7 (116) 6 73 Tyler Johnson TB 22.1 (80) 6 74 Curtis Samuel CAR 24.2 (54) 6 75 Tim Patrick DEN 26.9 (127) 6 76 Sammy Watkins KC 27.3 (68) 6 77 Tre’Quan Smith NO 24.8 (87) 6 78 Scott Miller TB 23.2 (91) 6 79 James Washington PIT 24.5 (67) 6 80 Keelan Cole JAX 27.5 (171) 7 81 Quintez Cephus DET 22.5 (103) 7 82 Jalen Hurd SFO 24.7 (71) 7 83 Breshad Perriman NYJ 27.1 (83) 7 84 John Hightower PHI 24.4 (118) 7 85 Emmanuel Sanders NO 33.5 (74) 7 86 Randall Cobb HOU 30.1 (94) 7 87 DeSean Jackson PHI 33.8 (84) 7 88 Miles Boykin BAL 24.0 (72) 7 89 Golden Tate NYG 32.2 (77) 7 90 Cole Beasley BUF 31.5 (99) 7 91 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 26.0 (124) 7 92 Cedrick Wilson DAL 24.9 unr 7 93 Antonio Gandy-Golden WAS 22.5 (89) 7 94 Jeff Smith NYJ 23.5 unr 7 95 Alshon Jeffery PHI 30.6 (75) 7 96 Antonio Brown 32.2 (76) 7 97 David Moore SEA 25.7 (141) 7 98 Dontrelle Inman WAS 31.7 (173) 7 99 Cordarrelle Patterson CHI 29.6 (163) 7 100 JJ Arcega-Whiteside PHI 23.8 (61) 8 101 Steven Sims WAS 23.5 (120) 8 102 Demarcus Robinson KC 26.0 (155) 8 103 Tyrell Williams LV 28.7 (92) 8 104 Olamide Zaccheaus ATL 23.2 unr 8 105 Kendrick Bourne SF 25.2 (123) 8 106 Collin Johnson JAX 23.0 (97) 8 107 Isaiah Coulter HOU 22.1 (98) 8 108 Devin Funchess GB 26.4 (95) 8 109 John Ross CIN 24.9 (63) 8 110 Greg Ward PHI 25.2 (100) 8 111 Braxton Berrios NYJ 25.0 unr 8 112 Damiere Byrd NE 27.7 (152) 8 113 Nelson Agholor LV 27.4 (126) 8 114 Zach Pascal IND 25.8 (96) 8 115 Dede Westbrook JAX 26.9 (82) 8 116 Josh Reynolds RAM 25.6 (112) 8 117 Kenny Stills HOU 28.5 (93) 9 118 Joe Reed LAC 22.8 (111) 9 119 Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE 21.6 (117) 9 120 Jakeem Grant MIA 27.9 (156) 9 121 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 37.1 (104) 9 122 Adam Humphries TEN 27.3 (110) 9 123 Auden Tate CIN 23.7 (113) 9 124 Hakeem Butler PHI 24.4 (88) 9 125 Dante Pettis SF 25.0 (86) 9 126 Keke Coutee HOU 23.7 (85) 9 127 Freddie Swain SEA 22.2 (138) 9 128 Zay Jones LV 25.5 (146) 9 129 Jalen Guyton LAC 23.3 unr 9 130 Albert Wilson MIA 28.2 (109) 9 131 Chris Conley JAX 28.0 (101) 9 132 Jakobi Meyers NE 23.9 (102) 9 133 Kelvin Harmon WAS 23.8 (108) 9 134 Quez Watkins PHI 22.3 (130) 9 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FreeBaGeL 9,187 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) Thanks @ZWK Looking at those I think Godwin, AJB, DJM all represent pretty good value. Maybe Godwin/AJB more than Moore since their issues have been only an injury and not production, and AJB's biggest roadblock (a low volume passing offense) seems to be lessening some. But then I look above them and realize just how much the league is overflowing with talented young WRs right now. There are just so many. And then because of that we have less exciting guys like ARob and Kupp that are basically strong low WR1's whoi are still in their prime that are available for relatively cheap. Jefferson is another guy that looks like a screaming buy as he has basically matched Lamb so far and is much cheaper. Edited October 9, 2020 by FreeBaGeL Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wgoldsph 962 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 (edited) 18 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said: Thanks @ZWK Looking at those I think Godwin, AJB, DJM all represent pretty good value. Maybe Godwin/AJB more than Moore since their issues have been only an injury and not production, and AJB's biggest roadblock (a low volume passing offense) seems to be lessening some. But then I look above them and realize just how much the league is overflowing with talented young WRs right now. There are just so many. And then because of that we have less exciting guys like ARob and Kupp that are basically strong low WR1's whoi are still in their prime that are available for relatively cheap. Jefferson is another guy that looks like a screaming buy as he has basically matched Lamb so far and is much cheaper. It's pretty crazy to see how much Godwin has fallen despite two fairly solid ppr games when he's played. Speaks to how crazy wrs have been this season when 10+ while healthy gets you knocked into the second tier. Edited October 9, 2020 by wgoldsph Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Mr. Irrelevant 1,745 Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Add me to the chorus who thinks Godwin is underpriced at 10. I can't think of too many dynasty scenarios where as an Adams or Nuk owner I wouldn't take Godwin straight up. I want to say the same about Golladay but TBH I had no idea he was a couple weeks from turning 27, so in that light what I'd be willing to offer is probably an overpay. Others I'd be buying at these prices: Chark, Diontae / Claypool, Hardman, Edwards, Duvernay, Hurd, Boykin, Auden Tate. I'd be selling: Amari, A-Rob, Boyd, Parker, Landry, Fuller, Lazard, Kirk, M. Williams, Cooks (who's definitely not a Ram any more, BTW). TBH there are very few names in that WR38-60 range I wouldn't be looking for an excuse to move off my rosters. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ty247 143 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 (edited) On 10/9/2020 at 2:23 AM, ZWK said: WR rankings after 4.1 weeks. PPR, start 3 WR, about 300 position players rostered. Age as of 10/8/20. Prev from my unpublished draft rankings 9/9/20 (which weren't fully up-to-date); my last posted rankings were 1/10/20. These are a little rushed compared to my offseason rankings; in the offseason I get to spend a few days tinkering with them until they look right. Thanks for the rankings update ZWK. I feel like Laviska might be a riser soon. Do you have RBs or QB's coming out soon? Edited October 13, 2020 by ty247 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zyphros 1,990 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 Looks a lot different than mine ha. Love the counter perspective though. My first thought was why MT at #1 and you bumped Adams/Nuk down below the younger guys. MT is less situation proof in my mind and his variability can come down where as the Adams/Nuk have long term QB stability and a arguably a more solid team no? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
voiceofunreason 1,039 Posted October 13, 2020 Share Posted October 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, Zyphros said: Looks a lot different than mine ha. Love the counter perspective though. My first thought was why MT at #1 and you bumped Adams/Nuk down below the younger guys. MT is less situation proof in my mind and his variability can come down where as the Adams/Nuk have long term QB stability and a arguably a more solid team no? Considering his age and Brees retiring, hard to take that high. Lots of guys look too low to me but when I look who's above them it's tough to argue. But Cooks that low is crazy and Preston Williams should be top 40 at absolute worst. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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