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Frank Gore - still in the NFL at 65. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Soulfly3
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Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
Thanks for the update, still not sure I feel good about starting him but I guess I gotta
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Apparently Bradshaw left late 4th with a wrist or something? Might impact Gore slightly down the stretch depending on the severity for AB.
ETA: Bradshaw sent to IR. Boom Herron to back up Gore.
ETA: Bradshaw sent to IR. Boom Herron to back up Gore.
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Sucks for Bradshaw, but sure makes me feel a bit better about Gore. I didn't like the match up yesterday, so I benched him for Ware (yeah I know nobody cares). He's got a bad matchup next week, but weeks 14-16 are Jax, Hou and Mia, so without Bradshaw he should be an effective RB2 as he had been until this week.Buck Bradcanon said:
rugcleaner
Footballguy
Ahmad Bradshaw - RB - Colts
Colts placed RB Ahmad Bradshaw on season-ending injured reserve with a wrist injury.
RB Zurlon Tipton was added to the roster in a corresponding move. Bradshaw was playing well the last several weeks, but the veteran will finish the season on injured reserve for the third-straight year. With Frank Gore falling apart down the stretch, recently re-claimed RB Dan Herron should play a role the rest of the season.
Didn't get a chance to watch this game, did Gore look bad or is roto speculating again?
Didn
Colts placed RB Ahmad Bradshaw on season-ending injured reserve with a wrist injury.
RB Zurlon Tipton was added to the roster in a corresponding move. Bradshaw was playing well the last several weeks, but the veteran will finish the season on injured reserve for the third-straight year. With Frank Gore falling apart down the stretch, recently re-claimed RB Dan Herron should play a role the rest of the season.
Didn't get a chance to watch this game, did Gore look bad or is roto speculating again?
Didn
thehoch
Footballguy
Please sit him for two weeks and then bring him back for my fantasy playoff run.....is that too much to ask?
Jimbo Slice
Footballguy
He just won me some duckets
Fox Scream
Footballguy
Frank Gore 2016, think Edgerrin James his last few years on the Cardinals. He'll grind out production but the team will rely heavily on the passing game, of which Frank Gore might not even be a part of on 3rd downs.
I like Ferguson as a COP back behind Gore.
I like Ferguson as a COP back behind Gore.
stuckinthemuck
Footballguy
If you listen to podcasts, listen to this one released today entitled "Robert Turbin secret sleeper".
[SIZE=11pt]https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/rotounderworld-radio-stereo/id1013135614?mt=2#episodeGuid=tag%3Asoundcloud%2C2010%3Atracks%2F270207170[/SIZE]
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
Beat me to it, stuckinthemuck. Matt Kelley has a lot of hyperbole and all or nothing to his opinions, but he also provides good analysis, imo. And the podcast is entertaining.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
He makes interesting observations at times and is funny.
However his analysis is deeply flawed and easily refuted. He is full of contradictions. For his sake I hope most of that is shtick, and I think it is, but there are other things he seems to actually believe in that are absurd. The unintentional humor is great in this regard. He pwns himself every time he speaks.
My favorite ridiculous statement so far is him criticizing what he calls wannabee metrics twitter, then proceeds to cite yards per carry at the college level as a meaningful statistic.
maybe I'm recalling last year differently, but I felt Gore was pretty productive when he got a decent amount of touches. That whole offense sucked for a good amount of time.
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Agree with you. Gore did the best with what he had and what he had was a hurting QB half the time, a 40 year old QB the other half, and 5 revolving doors for O-linemen the entire time. Plus the guy saying Gore is done is the same guy arguing in the other thread that Latavius Murray was good last year. Don't know how you can call Gore done and Murray good when they were literally separated by 9 points while one had a struggling offense and the other had an ascending one.
EDIT: Excuse me for incorrect stats. They were separated by 7.5 points in PPR and 4.4 in standard
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I think the general feeling is that another year on the tyres isn't going to make Gore any better than last year.
I think it is a fair assumption that someone else in Indy is going to get a decent amount of carries this year, we are simply trying to work out who.
Currently my vote says it is Turbin. But even so, I don't see any 2017 value here from Gore or Turbin. It the latter gets any work Im trading him straight away.
I think it is a fair assumption that someone else in Indy is going to get a decent amount of carries this year, we are simply trying to work out who.
Currently my vote says it is Turbin. But even so, I don't see any 2017 value here from Gore or Turbin. It the latter gets any work Im trading him straight away.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Turbin so far has been a career backup. I think he has talent -- I liked Turbin when he was in Seattle, and I think he has some good pass catching ability on 3rd down. But like in SEA, I can't see Turbin having a substantial role unless Gore goes down.
Gore has had injury history, and is 33. Always risk there. But I weigh that against there really being no one behind him who will challenge his role or bring the skillset he has to the table. Turbin may be mixed in as COP especially in passing down situations, but again, can't see a journeyman backup (SEA, CLE, DAL) really being anything but depth.
Table is really bare from there -- Todman is even more of a backup journeyman (SD, MIN, JAX, CAR, PIT) who is more suited to gadget plays and special teams. Trey Williams is a practice squad filler, and John Varga is a totally unproven UDFA out of the CFL. And Ferguson plays more like a receiver, and can see him becoming a 3rd down/passing situation role player.
I'm pretty high on Gore this year -- he's far from done and the Colts are going to use him in absence of anyone else who can carry the rock like Gore can. You need to factor in the age and injury potential, but there is no real competition behind him. If he's healthy, could definitely be a viable back who likely outperforms ADP.
Gore has had injury history, and is 33. Always risk there. But I weigh that against there really being no one behind him who will challenge his role or bring the skillset he has to the table. Turbin may be mixed in as COP especially in passing down situations, but again, can't see a journeyman backup (SEA, CLE, DAL) really being anything but depth.
Table is really bare from there -- Todman is even more of a backup journeyman (SD, MIN, JAX, CAR, PIT) who is more suited to gadget plays and special teams. Trey Williams is a practice squad filler, and John Varga is a totally unproven UDFA out of the CFL. And Ferguson plays more like a receiver, and can see him becoming a 3rd down/passing situation role player.
I'm pretty high on Gore this year -- he's far from done and the Colts are going to use him in absence of anyone else who can carry the rock like Gore can. You need to factor in the age and injury potential, but there is no real competition behind him. If he's healthy, could definitely be a viable back who likely outperforms ADP.
Gore is going to be 33. Who was the last RB to be fantasy relevant at age 33? I agree the whole offense was a mess last year, but if Gore wants to keep his job well into our fantasy playoffs, he's going to need to average over 4 ypc. I don't know the last time a 33 year old RB did that on any substantial volume.
If you are playing in a total points league with no playoffs, Gore has a decent shot to outproduce his RB32 ADP. But I don't feel like I can count on him not being replaced, injured, and/or worn out by the time I would need him the most. However, if you are going zero-RB and need someone to hold the fort down for 6 weeks or so until your roster sorts itself out and your sleeper RBs emerge, he's a nice place holder.
Fair enough. I do think he has a shot to be the only 33 year old to do it but if you're contending that he's more of an RB2 at his ceiling, I could accept that. Would still make him a value at his ADP. In this year, I'd be pretty happy with him as a flex. one thing he has going for him though, in my opinion, is that he is very secure in his job. He may be getting old but he hasn't shown significant wear and tear. The comparison to Stewart seems good except that Stewart gets vultured by Newton for rushing TDs and Tolbert for receiving ones. Gore, at this point, doesn't have that kind of competition in the back field. Ferguson might emerge but that's all speculation at this point. In dynasty, I don't like the idea of owning Gore and not owning Ferguson (a boat I am personally in)
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Colts offense
3 year average 1060 plays 621 pass attempts 406 rushing attempts.
Luck ran the ball 62, 63 and 64 times in the 3 seasons prior to 2015. Pretty consistent. In the 7 games he played last season he was on pace for 75 rushing attempts.
Assuming Luck is healthy 16 games and runs the ball 63 times, this leaves 343 rushing attempts for other players.
Frank Gore
32 years old IND 2015 260 rushing attempts 967 yards 6TD 58 targets 34 receptions (58.6%) 267 yards 1TD
31 years old SF 2014 255 rushing attempts 1106 yards 4TD 19 targets 11 receptions (57.9%) 111 yards 1TD
30 years old SF 2013 276 rushing attempts 1128 yards 9TD 27 targets 16 receptions (59.2%) 141 yards
Gore has a career catch rate of 67% but his catch rate has been below 60% for 3 seasons now. A RB averages a 73% catch rate, so Gore is below average in this category at this stage of his career. I am not sure why he was used less frequently as a receiver since Jim Harbaugh became the HC but he was.
I do think part of the poor completion percentage is due to bad QB play. Gore was more efficient in this area earlier on in his career, although he has always been below average. If Luck is healthy all season, there is reason to expect some improvement in this area in 2016. This could be a reason for the Colts to reduce his targets however if another RB emerges as a viable option in that area.
Gore played on 62.4% of the Colts offensive snaps last season. The next highest player was Ahmad Bradshaw with 14.4%. The did mix in Robinson and Herron at times as well, but Gore had the majority of the looks.
For the 1st time in his career Gore did not have over 4 yards per carry. This could be due to age, but I think it is more likely due to the Colts offensive line not being as good as what Gore had to work with in SF and poor QB play led to the defense focusing a bit more on stopping Gore than they will with Luck healthy.
According to this article, Gore had 4.1ypc when Luck was healthy. His numbers with the Colts last season were pretty close to what he has been doing recently aside from the lower ypc and higher targets in the passing game.
In the 7 games Luck played Gore was targeted 23 times. This is 3.3 times per game. Over 16 games this would be 53 targets. Which is slightly less than the 58 he had last season, Hass threw the ball to Gore slightly more than Luck did.
There is reason to be concerned that Gore may fall off due to being 33 years old for the 2016 season. However if he is healthy and similarly effective, I can see him having 60% or more of the snaps again, 250 rushing attempts and I want to say 50 targets in the passing game if the Colts do have another 3rd down option.
3 year average 1060 plays 621 pass attempts 406 rushing attempts.
Luck ran the ball 62, 63 and 64 times in the 3 seasons prior to 2015. Pretty consistent. In the 7 games he played last season he was on pace for 75 rushing attempts.
Assuming Luck is healthy 16 games and runs the ball 63 times, this leaves 343 rushing attempts for other players.
Frank Gore
32 years old IND 2015 260 rushing attempts 967 yards 6TD 58 targets 34 receptions (58.6%) 267 yards 1TD
31 years old SF 2014 255 rushing attempts 1106 yards 4TD 19 targets 11 receptions (57.9%) 111 yards 1TD
30 years old SF 2013 276 rushing attempts 1128 yards 9TD 27 targets 16 receptions (59.2%) 141 yards
Gore has a career catch rate of 67% but his catch rate has been below 60% for 3 seasons now. A RB averages a 73% catch rate, so Gore is below average in this category at this stage of his career. I am not sure why he was used less frequently as a receiver since Jim Harbaugh became the HC but he was.
I do think part of the poor completion percentage is due to bad QB play. Gore was more efficient in this area earlier on in his career, although he has always been below average. If Luck is healthy all season, there is reason to expect some improvement in this area in 2016. This could be a reason for the Colts to reduce his targets however if another RB emerges as a viable option in that area.
Gore played on 62.4% of the Colts offensive snaps last season. The next highest player was Ahmad Bradshaw with 14.4%. The did mix in Robinson and Herron at times as well, but Gore had the majority of the looks.
For the 1st time in his career Gore did not have over 4 yards per carry. This could be due to age, but I think it is more likely due to the Colts offensive line not being as good as what Gore had to work with in SF and poor QB play led to the defense focusing a bit more on stopping Gore than they will with Luck healthy.
According to this article, Gore had 4.1ypc when Luck was healthy. His numbers with the Colts last season were pretty close to what he has been doing recently aside from the lower ypc and higher targets in the passing game.
In the 7 games Luck played Gore was targeted 23 times. This is 3.3 times per game. Over 16 games this would be 53 targets. Which is slightly less than the 58 he had last season, Hass threw the ball to Gore slightly more than Luck did.
There is reason to be concerned that Gore may fall off due to being 33 years old for the 2016 season. However if he is healthy and similarly effective, I can see him having 60% or more of the snaps again, 250 rushing attempts and I want to say 50 targets in the passing game if the Colts do have another 3rd down option.
This is a good breakdown, but for the record the the 3 year average for the Colts has been 335 RB rushes @ 3.78 ypc. Last year's 3.5 ypc hurt the average, but as a team the RBs averaged 3.9 ypc for both 2013 and 2014. I'm sure this could improve, but I'm not excited about this offensive line.
But I really think age needs to be more than just a side note as a possible reason for concern. We have to go back twenty years to find a player that averaged over 4 ypc on 200+ carries at age 33 or more. That player? Marcus Allen. I think the odds of Gore hitting that cliff are very high. Even the ageless Fred Jackson hit a wall at age 33. Now I'm not saying Gore needs to hit 4 ypc to be valuable, but if you are drafting him with the plan of using him during the FF playoffs, you need to be braced for the possibility that he could lose his job if someone else is significantly more productive.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Which back on the roster do you think is primed to take his job? Turbin is closest, but there is zero indication he can be effective handling over 60% of the snaps. He may have to if injury rears, but you can never predict injury.
Agree that age and his ypc are concerns, but for me, you factor those in as a drop in production...but not opportunity. Just not enough there for me to shy completely away from the fact that Gore is still the only guy who can continue the role he already has (and has had some success) from last year.
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Rockchild
Footballguy
I'm not counting on him as anything more than depth/spot starter who may have more value during the season. At this point he might be one of those players that sits on your roster until he's done as he doesn't have much trade value.He finished RB14 in PPR and has an ADP of RB43. Do I expect him to finish that high again? No but he should out perform his ADP of RB43. He is a sneaky depth pickup that you might be able to acquire pretty cheap.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Obviously preseason will better inform us about the Colt’s RB situation, but I cannot think of an instance where using a lack of competition as the primary reason for drafting a player ever worked out for me.
The Colts have shown they are very receptive to bringing in players off the street in hopes of filling their RB need (Gore and Bradshaw are the most immediate examples). Thus an FA signing to bring in competition, like Foster, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. It is also possible one of the young RBs shows enough to unseat Gore. Like I said, it is too early make a call yet. But if I were drafting today I would pass on Gore at his current ADP.
Using MFL ADP Gore’s current ADP is early in RD6
Quickly scanning the ADP, players I like more that I consider less risky in that same ADP:
Sims, Charles TBB RB
Abdullah, Ameer DET RB
Fleener, Coby NOS TE
Walker, Delanie TEN TE
The Colts have shown they are very receptive to bringing in players off the street in hopes of filling their RB need (Gore and Bradshaw are the most immediate examples). Thus an FA signing to bring in competition, like Foster, isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. It is also possible one of the young RBs shows enough to unseat Gore. Like I said, it is too early make a call yet. But if I were drafting today I would pass on Gore at his current ADP.
Using MFL ADP Gore’s current ADP is early in RD6
Quickly scanning the ADP, players I like more that I consider less risky in that same ADP:
Sims, Charles TBB RB
Abdullah, Ameer DET RB
Fleener, Coby NOS TE
Walker, Delanie TEN TE
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White Lightning
Footballguy
I had him last year and was pretty disappointed. When I draft for depth, I also draft for upside. I think Gore's upside is extremely limited so I wouldn't waste a pick on him.
Boston
Footballguy
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
Good points about the upside, but I think one big difference here is that he went in the 3rd round last year and is going in the 7th round this year.
Ninja's question about 33 year old running backs was a good one, so I trolled around a bit. According to pro football ref the results were pretty bleak.
The best RB seasons by 33 year olds or older were pretty much low efficiency, TD dependent seasons by the likes of Emmitt Smith, Marcus Allen, Ottis Anderson etc. Which is not surprising.
As an aside, John Riggins rushed for 1239 yards and 14 TDs when he was 35!
Back to the topic at hand. I'm happy to draft Gore as an unexciting RB3 in the 7th round. He is very likely to provide better production than that, imo. Certainly not a league winner, but good filler for one of the last spots in your lineup. Worth noting is that Gore hasn't missed a game in 5 years. I was very surprised to see that.
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Boston
Footballguy
Agree and disagree...agree that you can always find a spot for a player like this on your roster...I just don't want it being my #3 RB...
This is a minor point, but I've never bought into the "he can't handle the snaps" argument for any player regardless of size. Where does it come from? Do you question his conditioning? I get that people think smaller backs are more likely to be injured (although guys like Mewelde Moore always flourished when given the opportunity and likely would continue to until injured). But in this case, Turbin is 222 pounds so I don't know why anyone would question his ability to handle significant snaps.
Anyway, like 32CP mentioned, lack of competition isn't a compelling primary argument for a player. Didn't Indy sign Bradshaw off the street a couple years ago only to thrust him into a major role pretty quickly? Things move fast. Bottom line is that if Gore falls off the cliff, as pretty much every RB has done at or before age 33, his role will be drastically reduced. I wish I could predict who will get those snaps, but right now I just don't feel comfortable drafting him with any expectation of a meaningful contribution during the FF playoffs.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
To the first bolded part, you are making an incorrect assumption that I think he can't handle a full load based on his measurables, as opposed to what he can do on the field. Granted, either of us could be wrong as Turbin has never been thrust into a pure starting role -- I am going more from his actual play. Hard to displace a guy like Lynch, but in SEA, Turbin really didn't have a role other than COP and passing downs. He didn't do anything to distinguish himself as a potential heir to the job behind Lynch, and he similarly had no impact on wither CLE or DAL aside from bench depth.
And I think that's what he is on Indy -- he will get some touches, but won't threaten the role of a better and more complete runner ahead of him. With no one behind Gore pushing him for touches, I don't see Gore's role changing one bit as the bellcow.
To the second bolded part - major role? I'm sorry, I just can't give credence whatsoever to Bradshaw having any meaningful role in the offense alongside Gore.
NAME
POS
YR
AGE
EXP
G
RSH
RSHYD
YD/RSH
RSHTD
FANT PT
1
Ahmad Bradshaw
rb
2015
29
9
6
31
85
2.74
0
32.9
2
Frank Gore
rb
2015
32
11
16
260
967
3.72
6
165.4
Those stats of yours are misleading. First, Bradshaw only played 6 games with the Colts last year, he had 3 receiving TDs. The year before he played 11 games and had 6 receiving TDs and 2 rushing TDs. He may not be placed in a major role but if Bradshaw was on the Colts again next year, he would have a good shot to be a low RB2/flex just based on his receiving ability. They signed Bradshaw because they lost their depth last year and picked him because he was the 3rd down back from last year. He knew the system.
That said, I do agree with you that I am not worried about someone random stepping in for a major role. Bradshaw was unique in that he was playing at a high level in 2014 and came back mid year in 2015 to be a contributor. Maybe not in yards but in the redzone. They won't bring him back again after another injury I don't think. They will try to protect Luck as much as possible so barring an injury, Gore will get that 3rd down work because he is a good blocker as well.
Well, if that's what you were trying to say then you did a poor job conveying that thought. You said " Turbin is closest, but there is zero indication he can be effective handling over 60% of the snaps." which implies workload is the problem, but this statement seems to imply you just don't think he's very good. Usually people just say, "he's not good enough to carry the load" when that's what they're thinking.
I am no scout, so I can't say if Turbin is good or not, but I agree with your take that he hasn't shown a lot. He looked decent in spot duty in Seattle, but they let him go despite little depth behind Lynch and then he made no impact on his next team. Not looking great for him.
As for Bradshaw, I was referring to 2014. I was just pointing out that a player doesn't have to be present on the roster to take away fantasy points from Gore later in the year.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I hear ya. To me, the year before is kind of irrelevant as Gore wasn't on the team then -- and if your QB has more attempts, yards, and better YPG averages, then I'd actually argue how much Bradshaw contributed to the offense last year.
That said, I get Bradshaw adds not just depth but value with his versatility. But Gore doesn't have hands of stone -- he's fairly versatile as a receiver, and racked up 34/267 off of 58 targets (1 TD, 7.9 average) last year. Great to have depth but I don't think Bradshaw brings anything so different/better to the tablet that Gore doesn't already bring himself.
All this to say that Bradshaw will get touches, but my forecast is that Gore is yet another year older, but is far from done and I think is a good bet to outperform and overall ADP of 80/RB32. He is ranked around guys like Ivory and SIms who will get the lesser share of snaps in their roles. Would much rather have a guy who, barring injury, is going to have the lions share of carries and will likely be far over 250+ rushes
Bradshaw is gone again I think, couldn't tell from your post if you knew that. I know Gore is versatile and has a track record as a receiver and pass blocker, that's why people were high on him last year. I think the biggest thing with Bradshaw was that he was being used as a spell back on 3rd down for Gore. Prior to signing Bradshaw, the depth behind Gore wasn't very good. While there would still be a need to spell him from time to time, I'm sure they didn't want to because of the loss of talent on the field that represented. Whether it was because he was good or because he knew the offense, that would not have been the case with Bradshaw around. Luckily, he's not anymore. I don't know how good any of the guys are behind Gore but aside from Ferguson, nobody has any buzz. I'd reserve judgment on Ferguson until he put some pads on. I'm with you though, Gore looks to be a major value. At the very least he should be on par with what we got last year, a steady guy. I see more upside with Luck back but I will take the safe floor at his ADP
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Or, as cheap as RBs are to acquire, perhaps a trade.scothawk said:
