2016 Playoff Thread (1 Viewer)

5 weeks in and there are multiple other threads referencing the playoff picture already. Let's condense that discuss here. Feel free to make a prediction!

Current picture.

AFC

1. Cinci

2. Den

6. Buf @ 3. NE

5. NYJ @ 4. Indy

NFC

1. Atl

2. GB

6. Minn @ 3. Arz

5. Car @ 4. NYG

From Buy Low Sell High thread.

Anarchy99 said:

jurb26 said:

Anarchy99 said:

matttyl said:

Joe Summer said:

Marshawn Lynch. Sell now before the hammy acts up again and they shut him down until the playoffs.

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HAHA, Seahawks in the playoffs....

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Humor me and list the teams in the NFC that are going to get at least 9 wins beyond GB, ATL, ARI, CAR, and NYG.

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There is nothing definitive about this but I could see these teams getting 9 wins.Dal

St. L

Minn

Philly

Wash

Sea has just as good a shot as any of them, but it's not like nobody else in the Confernce will be competing for that spot.

Also, you're making an assumption that any of these teams will need 9 wins to beat Sea out of a spot.

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I think the teams you listed are iffy to get more than 8-9 wins (as things stand now). Similar discussions popped up last year when SEA started slowly (3-3) and some people were ready to write them off. SEA is 2-3 but lost to two undefeated teams on the road (and another tough road loss to the Rams). I am not ready to say they are done just yet.Historically, they hardly ever lose at home and have been about .500 on the road since Wilson got there. They still have 6 home games left (CAR, ARI, SFO, PIT, CLE, STL). You have to think they probably win 5 of those. That gets them to 7 wins. Their remaining road games are at SFO, DAL, MIN, BAL, and ARI. I think they win at least 3 games there (maybe 4 if Romo is still out). That gets them to 10 wins. As already mentioned, I have a hard time right now seeing DAL, STL, PHI, MIN, or WAS getting to 10 wins. IMO, SEA has the most talented team out of all those teams (especially with Dez and Romo out of action for DAL). Maybe DAL gets healthy. Maybe PHI starts playing better. Maybe MIN is a better team than their record indicates. But for now, I still see SEA as making the playoffs.

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I think Sea makes the playoffs too, but that a different question. Based on your question, many of the teams I listed can get to 9 wins and Sea still goes. I don't think anyone is counting Sea out. That would be foolish. Nonetheless, that's a pretty tough schedule even for a team as good as them.

Just like I'm not counting Sea out, I, also not willing to count out any of the teams I listed. A lot can happen, it's week 6.

Clearly it's early and things can change in a heartbeat. IND and NYG were both 0-2 and are now 3-2 and leading their respective divisions. Key players can get hurt and change the complexion of an entire season (DAL for one). That's why I said earlier in the other thread based on how things look now (that part didn't make it to this thread, which is no big deal, but missing from what I posted). Last year at this point Brady needed to be benched and the Patriots would be lucky to go 8-8. A LOT could and will change. Both AFC South teams could revert to playing like last year and not even finish .500 (unlikely, but still a possibility). In reality, we shouldn't even start to talk about this stuff until week 10 or so.

It's got to be concerning that this Sea team has blown 3 leads this year. Teams of past wouldn't allow that to happen.

Big game coming up this week with Car coming to town. I think this game has serious playoff implications even though that might seem odd at week 6. Sea can't afford to drop a home game and go 2-4. Car needs to maintain Atl pace.

jurb26 said:

It's got to be concerning that this Sea team has blown 3 leads this year. Teams of past wouldn't allow that to happen.

Big game coming up this week with Car coming to town. I think this game has serious playoff implications even though that might seem odd at week 6. Sea can't afford to drop a home game and go 2-4. Car needs to maintain Atl pace.

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I put CAR in the probably not as good as their record indicates category. The record of their opponents so far is 5-15. If SEA loses, then you are right, the Seahawks might be in trouble.

Updated.

1. NE

2. Cinci

6. Pitt @ 3. Den

5. NYJ @ 4. Indy

1. Car

2. GB

6. Minn @ 3. Arz

5. Atl @ 4. NYG

Minnesota is legit; All they needed was a coach and a QB and both of them have been solid.

DVOA hates them, though. They're ranked 28th and have the 2nd hardest future schedule. Estimated wins of 2.6 rest of the year (which is too low). I think this is a case of stats lying and/or not indicative of future performance. The Vikings are top-7 in both defense and the running game, and that's going to keep them in contention in every game the rest of the year.

I think they split the series with GB and get in as a wild-card on the last week of the season with 10 wins... then they win the wild-card game, divisional round, and end up in GB for the NFC championship.

The Falcons are fool's gold, putting up tons of points in the extended pre-season. Now that everyone is in full football shape, I think they're going to get grounded. Look at what happened vs TEN, one of the worst defenses in the league. And they were struggling against bad defenses the two weeks prior to that as well.

Carolina doesn't have the offense to win in the playoffs; the running game is weak and any team with decent corners (GB) will be able to load shut down Olsen/Ginn in single coverage and load the box with 8 vs Cam.

Honestly, I think this is GB's conference to lose this year. The game vs Carolina and the two against the Vikings will define the season. If they sweep those three games, they'll be in the Super Bowl. The Packers are 6-0 despite the most lost starts by starters; think about that. 78 games missed by starters, they are #1 in DVOA, and have the 2nd easiest schedule left according to DVOA. Many of those starters are scheduled to come back this week. Only two (Nelson/Barrington) are out for the year, and Barrington was a replaceable MLB.

Rodgers/Brady SB 50 is looking more likely by the day.

Based on 538's 20,000 season simulations . . .

1 - NEP 14-2

2 - DEN 13-3

3 - CIN 13-3

6 - PIT 9-7

4 - IND 8-8

5 - NYJ 10-6

1 - GBP 13-3

2 - CAR 13-3

3 - ARI 10-6

6 - MIN 9-7

4 - NYG 8-8

5 - ATL 11-5

Cinci is @ Den week 16 on Mon night. That should be a pivotal game. Maybe a bye on the line.

Very strong possibility that after week 11 there will be a 3-7 team in first place in the AFC South.

Upcoming scheds:

INDY (3-4): at Car, Den, bye, at Atl

HOU (2-5): Ten, bye, at Cincy, Jets

JAX (2-5): at Jets, at Balt, Ten, bye

TEN (1-5): at Hou, at NO, Car, at Jax

-QG

Carolina is not losing to those falcon clowns.

Update.

1. Den

2. NE

6. NYJ @ 3. Cinci

5. Oak @ 4. Indy

1. Car

2. GB

6. Minn @ 3. Arz

5. Atl @ 4. NYG

Update.

1. NE

2. Cinci

6. Pitt @ 3. Den

5. NYJ @ 4. Indy

1. Car

2. GB

6. Atl @ 3. Arz

5. Minn @ 4. NYG

Week 11 update. Things are starting to get a bit clearer.

1. NE

2. Cinci

6. KC @ 3. Den

5. Pitt @ 4. Indy

1. Car

2. Arz

6. Atl @ 3. GB

5. Minn @ 4. NYG