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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (25 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
hoffman0001
Footballguy
I'll agree to disagree. I think I have a contender and I don't want to lose all hope if Rodgers gets nicked up. Besides I think I'm buying low on Bortles. And really all I did was drop back 9 picks.
Spike
Footballguy
My last post on the subject - if everyone did this, the thread would have about 1/3 more useless posts.
I know, and I'm not alone, I have had plenty of times I have posted a trade and no one responded. You just move on.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Really? He's just trying to offer you advice. Bumping after an hour is not good form. It's not like your trade was such a blockbuster - it was a bunch of meh for some meh. So it's not going to garner much attention anyway.Thank you Mr. Hall monitor.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Then draft Rodger's backup and move on.
And I'm not saying it's a horrible trade. Of course it's not way out of line. Just not one I would do.
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hoffman0001
Footballguy
Exactly. I don't want to rest my hopes on the likes of a Chase Daniels when playoff positioning or the actual playoffs are on the line. In addition this time of year people REALLY over-value draft picks. After the top 10 in rookie draft picks, its a CRAP SHOOT. Look at Tyreek Hill. We was undrafted in most dynasty leagues and he became a startable option while many of the rookie drafted were useless.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
kutta
Footballguy
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
I would take Maclin over Boyd straight up so give me the side with the pick, which lol may be the most valuable piecehoffman0001 said:
Admittedly I'm lower on Boyd than most and I own him in a few leagues.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Jesus dude give it a rest this isn't the "help hoffman0001 feel good about himself" thread. Man we are such an all-about-me state.Thank you boss of hall monitor
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Hmm....I guess we are not allowed to disagree with advice in this forum? What a sad, sad state of affairs.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I think the move is fine. I agree 2.5 has nice value this year given this drafts depth but I also think people have over corrected on Bortles and are over rating 15th pick vs 24th. I'd gladly pay 9 spots for a solid young upside QB like Bortles. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on him.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't think the move is fine. I think 2.5 has nice value this year given this drafts depth and I think people have overvalued Bortles and are under rating the drop from 15th pick to 24th. I'd gladly get 9 spots for moving a QB2 like Bortles. I think this is the perfect time to exit the space before he gets Gabbert'd.
hoffman0001
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yeah it definitely gave me pause before I pulled the trigger but in this case unless a WR landing spot really impacts the draft it's going to be a RB sitting here at 1.6 anyways so the start 1 Min played a smaller role in my decision making. The 1 point per 10 carries means that for starting RBs with little competition for carries we are looking at a 7-14% increase in PPG (for a PPR 14 PPG back). That increase to me improves his value relative to non-workhorse RBs and PPR WRs enough to make it worthwhile for me. Of course when rookie draft starts if see someone move a solid young guy plus more for this pick I'll kick myself. But this is pretty much a no trade league so I'll pick up the guy who showed a lot of promise this year and let someone else figure out who they'll draft at 1.6. Lol
jeaton6
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It seems like it's something that's always said - but in my five leagues unless a starter goes down and the backup goes in, there are never any starting QBs on waivers.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You have that as a 9 spot drop, which makes it a 10 man league. I can very easily name 10 QB's I'd rather have than Bortles. I'd happily take an 11 spot upgrade even if you want to stretch Bortles to QB12. They haven't even picked up his 5th year option yet, so I'm concerned they may be ready to move on. Coughlin just got there and has nothing invested in the guy. My Gabbert'd reference was very intentional, and your opinion happened to be nearly the exact mirror image of mine so I took the opportunity to have a little fun expressing it.
jeaton6
Footballguy
Yep. I liked the play on words. Props. And you're entitled to your opinion but Bortles was QB10 in my 6 point per TD league last year (hence why I made the update). In 6 points per TD he was within 0.7 of Mariota, 0.2 of Stafford and ahead of Winston/Wilson/Newton by 0.2-1.0 PPG. In 4 points per TD his PPG was within 0.3 of Winston/Mariota, equal to Stafford and about 1 PPG ahead of Wilson/Newton. All of whom I'm guessing are ahead of him in your book.
I agree he comes with some risk but Gabbert never did what he did in 2015 (very few QBs have, garbage time or not) and didn't have the same weapons. If he turns it around then this one will look very lopsided for Hoffman, if he doesn't and is gone after this year then he loses. But I think on par at this point in time the trade is about even and if I was betting based on my EV I'd take the Bortles side. I just happen to think he bounces back, gets extended (why spend another high pick on a young QB when you already have a young guy who can sling it?) and by mid season people are looking at him in the same light as Winston/Mariota who I think we both would agree are worth well more than the 2.5.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'm not sure OP's league is either 10 man or 6 pt TD leagues though. Bortles was QB15 in my league, and .9 points from QB23. There are just too many other QB's I can get cheap and a number of those aren't going anywhere from their current teams soon. Flacco, Kaepernick, Bradford, Alex Smith - Bortles barely beat out that level last year. Sure, he can improve, but so can any other QB out there include the donkeys like Cutler and Kaepernick. He's just too easy to replace. Gimmie any draft pick bump over that.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Bortles was so awful last year--I just don't see this happening, personally. He put together a solid season in 2015, so I won't suggest it can't happen again. But I think it was the exception and not the norm. Even in 2015 he led the league in INTs and only won 5 games. I think he's a backup very soon.
Just my opinion--and I'm sure there's some recency bias at work.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think there are two things at play here that are being overlooked, but kind of counteract each other.
Saying it was just a 9 pick drop in the draft is underselling it. It was a 9 pick drop that takes the pick across that imaginary tier break where there is usually a huge dropoff in value. Mid-2nd is still a pretty decent pick with a shot at getting a useful or even really good player. Mid-3rd is a total lottery shot in the dark. There's usually a pretty big dropoff around pick 18 or so in rookie drafts, so crossing that threshold from 15 to 24 is a pretty decent drop.
On the flip side, saying Bortles is interchangeable with all those guys is underselling him as well. Yes, he may not have outscored them by much last year but he does at least have more upside than them. The chance that he develops back into 2015 Bortles may be small (as is the chance that pick 15 turns into a great player), but it's there and is certainly a lot more likely than Alex Smith putting up 4500 yards and 35 TDs.
All in all, it was probably a pretty fair deal. I prefer the pick, but I can see it the other way as well.
Personally, I'll take a 10% chance that I get lucky and land the next Jordan Howard or David Johnson over a 75% chance that I get a solid backup QB.
Saying it was just a 9 pick drop in the draft is underselling it. It was a 9 pick drop that takes the pick across that imaginary tier break where there is usually a huge dropoff in value. Mid-2nd is still a pretty decent pick with a shot at getting a useful or even really good player. Mid-3rd is a total lottery shot in the dark. There's usually a pretty big dropoff around pick 18 or so in rookie drafts, so crossing that threshold from 15 to 24 is a pretty decent drop.
On the flip side, saying Bortles is interchangeable with all those guys is underselling him as well. Yes, he may not have outscored them by much last year but he does at least have more upside than them. The chance that he develops back into 2015 Bortles may be small (as is the chance that pick 15 turns into a great player), but it's there and is certainly a lot more likely than Alex Smith putting up 4500 yards and 35 TDs.
All in all, it was probably a pretty fair deal. I prefer the pick, but I can see it the other way as well.
Personally, I'll take a 10% chance that I get lucky and land the next Jordan Howard or David Johnson over a 75% chance that I get a solid backup QB.
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Rockchild
Footballguy
It's a good discussion of roster building and management though. Where do you allocate your resources? I definitely don't worry too much about a backup QB unless, like others have mentioned, the league you're in hoards QB's or in larger leagues. I personally would prefer the pick but I have no issue with someone preferring Bortles. I could see doing something like this at the trade deadline to shore up your roster heading into the playoffs but, even then, if your QB gets hurt chances are it is in game and you lose the points of that game and might not even make it through. There is no right or wrong way to run a team just preferences.
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Gave DeAndre Hopkins, Landon Collins for 1.01, Hunter Henry, 18 3rd
2pt solo, TE Premium, Superflex, all rookies/devy available in '17 draft, then depleted in future years (combined drafts)
2pt solo, TE Premium, Superflex, all rookies/devy available in '17 draft, then depleted in future years (combined drafts)
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Gave Doug Baldwin, C.J. Prosise for 1.12, 2.01, 18 1st
2pt solo, TE Premium, Superflex, all rookies/ devy available in '17 draft, then depleted in future years (combined drafts)
2pt solo, TE Premium, Superflex, all rookies/ devy available in '17 draft, then depleted in future years (combined drafts)
Chad Parsons
Moderator
Gave Austin Hooper, Cameron Meredith, Quincy Enunwa for 2.03, 2.10, 3.08, 3.11
Stock PPR league
Stock PPR league
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Henry and the pick.
I'll take the picks. With it being superflex, TE premium, AND devy's+all rooks available those 1.12 and 2.01 picks are worth a LOT more than they would be in a typical league.
I'll take the players in this one. Seems cheapish for Meredith/Hooper.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Man Collins is a BEAST at S. If that's a required position with a large IDP lineup (I play in 3/3/3/flex leagues) I'd take that side by a lot, Hopkins = 1.01 for me, at least.
Picks by a lot in any format
Players.
jeaton6
Footballguy
This is a 10 teamer based on OP stating it's a 9 pick drop and it was 2.5 to 3.4. On draft day if you want to move up from 2.12 to 2.3 in a 12 teamer it usually takes adding a solid vet or young upside guy. This to me looks like that kind of a trade, just happening before draft day.
As for finding someone cheaper than bortles sure you can do that but you can say the same thing about all but the top 5 QBs who are putting up dramatically better numbers than the rest of hr field. I just happen to think Bortles is very cheap right now and a lot of the other guys who are putting up similar numbers come with a much higher price tag. So given his youth and upside I'm buying at that price and would much rather pay a 9 pick bump for him than a first rounder plus more for Winston/Mariota/Wilson.
I think what you're really saying is you wouldn't invest in any of these guys in this ballpark of scoring because you can find replaceable level scoring much cheaper which I can respect but it's just a different strategy as I'd prefer to have a guy that has this as his floor (assuming he has a job, and a much higher ceiling that none of the other guys you listed have). If Bortles succeeds he's well worth it, if he doesn't you can always get Flacco, Smith, etc for peanuts.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
He also alluded to 2.05 being the 17th rookie so maybe he just stinks at math, but regardless yeah you nailed my thought, that any QB2 isn't worth any premium. I also wouldn't give a 1st for Winston/Mariota/Wilson. It's too easy to grab an Eli from a team that's 2-7 and wants to get younger or Dalton from the team that had Rogers and scored Dak in the 5th round of the rookie draft.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It's March.hoffman0001 said:
BuckCherry
Footballguy
Team A gave up Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB; Dorsett, Phillip IND WR;Robinson, Allen JAC WR; Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.10
Team B gave up Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.01
12 team stock PPR
Team B gave up Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.01
12 team stock PPR
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Ill take Robinson and the 1.10 over the 1.01
JackReacher
Footballguy
jeaton6
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'll take 1.01.
Too much Braylon Edwards in ARob. Low catch rate masked by high volume. Followed up breakout season with a massive disappointment that people blamed squarely on the QB even though his teammates playing with the same QB had much better efficiency.
1.01 >>>>>>>>> ARob for me and the rest of the guys are just pieces.
Too much Braylon Edwards in ARob. Low catch rate masked by high volume. Followed up breakout season with a massive disappointment that people blamed squarely on the QB even though his teammates playing with the same QB had much better efficiency.
1.01 >>>>>>>>> ARob for me and the rest of the guys are just pieces.
bostonfred
Footballguy
The reason the young veteran receiver is supposed to be more valuable than the highly touted rookie is because the veteran has already shown he can consistently do it in the NFL. Robinson had not shown that at all. In 3 years he had an OK rookie year, a monster second year, and a hugely disappointing third year. He belongs in a tier between guys you expect to keep doing it and guys who might make the leap but haven't yet. 1.1 belongs ahead of that.
A lot of people expected regression from both bortles and Robinson after his monster season. He had a lot of garbage time scores fueled by a terrible defense, some positive variance on big plays, and he was the best option on offense by far. He had 151 targets two years ago and 150 last year, so if there's a drop off in targets with the emergence of Lee and his own disappointing performance, the other shoe could still drop. If bortles comes back strong and Robinson plays well, he's a wr1, but you need both to be true to really be excited about him, and neither was true last year.
1.1 is a fungible asset. It's hard to trade Robinson for, say, aj green. You can trade 1.1 for aj green and just be left to argue about what else is involved. You can trade down from 1.1 to get 1.3 and a big piece a lot more easily than you can trade up from 1.10.
I think it's a fair deal. I totally get people strongly preferring the Robinson side, and I get people preferring the Fournette side. Put me down for 1.1 in all but the 1rb 5wr ppr crap leagues that ruined dynasty.
A lot of people expected regression from both bortles and Robinson after his monster season. He had a lot of garbage time scores fueled by a terrible defense, some positive variance on big plays, and he was the best option on offense by far. He had 151 targets two years ago and 150 last year, so if there's a drop off in targets with the emergence of Lee and his own disappointing performance, the other shoe could still drop. If bortles comes back strong and Robinson plays well, he's a wr1, but you need both to be true to really be excited about him, and neither was true last year.
1.1 is a fungible asset. It's hard to trade Robinson for, say, aj green. You can trade 1.1 for aj green and just be left to argue about what else is involved. You can trade down from 1.1 to get 1.3 and a big piece a lot more easily than you can trade up from 1.10.
I think it's a fair deal. I totally get people strongly preferring the Robinson side, and I get people preferring the Fournette side. Put me down for 1.1 in all but the 1rb 5wr ppr crap leagues that ruined dynasty.
Dave Stauff
Footballguy
Team A: Gives Russell Wilson and Amari Cooper
Team B: Gives Cam Newton and 1.01
Team B: Gives Cam Newton and 1.01
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
12 team PPR. 1.25 PPR for TEs. Large rosters and large Taxi squads. PLayers drafted in rounds 2-7 can be placed on Taxi for up to 3 years. Draft is late August.
Mark Ingram
for
pick 14, pick 23, and a 2019 3rd
Mark Ingram
for
pick 14, pick 23, and a 2019 3rd
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