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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (16 Viewers)

LOL, here we go.  Why would I need to convince myself of a 'bad' trade that I willingly accepted a few hours ago?

I understand the value of assets in this league.  I'm supremely confident that I maximized probability to secure a profit in this league.  The only way I lose is IF Zeke/Henry (I would have taken whoever went first in the NFL draft) become perennial FF stars AND I don't secure a future perennial FF star myself (next year) to match what I missed from Zeke/Henry.  Both of those things have to happen for me to lose.  There is a chance both happen, but it's not likely.  I haven't even mentioned the extra $30 which I can use to purchase a FA/RFA, use as trade asset, buy another 1st round pick...  That's the icing on the cake and my insurance in case I don't secure a top 5 next season.

The bottom line is that I just increased my odds of hitting next season AND I have insurance on that bet in the form of $30.  I specifically and successfully targeted 2017 1st round picks from, imo, the three worst teams in my league.  I had a predatory strategy that worked to perfection.
In reality you could have maybe gotten Zeke plus whoever the rb is you desire next year with the future 1sts you already have, you really just bought one more chance in the lottery which in reality only increases your chances a bit of getting the guy you want. You could've gotten more in return

 
I appreciate your input but I strongly disagree about it being a bad value.  Actually, I understand value better than anyone in the league, which is why I'm so stacked AND I have  more current and future assets than anyone else in the league.  My understanding of value is what I believe to be one of my strongest traits in dynasty.  Sure, I traded away a 1.01 but in return I basically just got two 1st round picks in a draft (2017) that I perceive has better elite prospects - one of those picks has a good chance of being the 1.01. Either way I just increased my chances of securing the 1.01 and/or a top 5 pick.  

I think some owners miss out on beneficial trades because they don't want to short change themselves on current perceived value.  Right now a current 1st is more valuable than a future first.  Right now. But dynasty is not a short-term game. The only thing that matters is winning the overall game.  There are a lot of outcomes that will 'win' that trade for me and there's only 1 outcome where I 'lose' the trade.  Probability is completely in my favor and that's all you can play to be long-run successful in FF.  You must take all information available and bet on the scenarios that probability favors you.  I did that in this case, so therefore, it was great trade value (for now).  Whether I actually win or not won't be decided for a few years.
Again, maybe these 30 dollars are way more valuable than I think they are. 

What could you get straight up for 30 dollars right now? For example if you wanted to trade them for the best possible pick you could get this year, what could you get?  Or could you get another 2017 1st from a team who stinks?

And value right "now" is actually, um, rather important when discussing the value of a trade that happened "right now".

And keep in mind, sure, you have all these future 1sts, but only ONE can be the top pick.   If you are going to view all of your future 1sts as "could be #1" then you are overvaluing those picks, and likely paying more than should to acquire them. 

But really, if you just traded the #1 pick this year for a pick that projects to be high (and not guarantee top 2), then that 30 bucks better be able to get you a VERY good return, otherwise, yes, bad value trade.

 
In reality you could have maybe gotten Zeke plus whoever the rb is you desire next year with the future 1sts you already have, you really just bought one more chance in the lottery which in reality only increases your chances a bit of getting the guy you want. You could've gotten more in return
Or trade something ELSE to get that future 1st that he got. 

Also, with pushing things back a year (most likely given you have no RB), why not trade guys like Fitzgerald and Nelson to get those future picks?

Just seems like a bad value trade and also a trade that does not mesh with your current roster and possibilities

 
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How do you reconcile the fact that Zeke (idk why you brought up Henry) will 90%+ be taken ahead of the 3rd best rb next year (which is what I'm estimating to be the EV of this trade)?
I don't need to reconcile it.  Tavon Austin was taken 40 picks earlier (and in a different draft) than AR15.  If Zeke goes top 10, that in itself doesn't do anything to harm the value of this trade.  

 
I don't need to reconcile it.  Tavon Austin was taken 40 picks earlier (and in a different draft) than AR15.  If Zeke goes top 10, that in itself doesn't do anything to harm the value of this trade.  
You know you are holding two different conversations, one about value, and one about what you expect.  Two VERY VERY different things. 

 
In reality you could have maybe gotten Zeke plus whoever the rb is you desire next year with the future 1sts you already have, you really just bought one more chance in the lottery which in reality only increases your chances a bit of getting the guy you want. You could've gotten more in return
Absolutely! Good observation.  This team, however, was an ideal top 5 candidate.  He was worth 'settling' for.  The $30 insurance easily puts this in my favor though.

 
Absolutely! Good observation.  This team, however, was an ideal top 5 candidate.  He was worth 'settling' for.  The $30 insurance easily puts this in my favor though.
Again, what could you trade 30 dollars straight up for do you think?  Without that knowledge this is all pretty much worthless to discuss.  We don't know how the dollars are valued in your league. 

 
Again, maybe these 30 dollars are way more valuable than I think they are. 

What could you get straight up for 30 dollars right now? For example if you wanted to trade them for the best possible pick you could get this year, what could you get?  Or could you get another 2017 1st from a team who stinks?

And value right "now" is actually, um, rather important when discussing the value of a trade that happened "right now".

And keep in mind, sure, you have all these future 1sts, but only ONE can be the top pick.   If you are going to view all of your future 1sts as "could be #1" then you are overvaluing those picks, and likely paying more than should to acquire them. 

But really, if you just traded the #1 pick this year for a pick that projects to be high (and not guarantee top 2), then that 30 bucks better be able to get you a VERY good return, otherwise, yes, bad value trade.
Value right now is only important if my intention was to get immediate value from the trade.  Since I traded for a future asset, this is not an immediate value for me and I did not intend it to be.  The immediate value for me is the $30 which could buy me another 2017 1st but I'm not going to use it for that right now.  Timing, of course, has a lot to do with everything.  

To address your other point, I'm a very good drafter, so I don't need the 1.01.  There's always more than 1 fantasy stud, usually many from the 1st round.  Hell, in 2014 and a different dynasty league, I drafted the following players in round 1 and my highest pick was 1.04:

OBJ, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

Granted, that was a super stacked WR class, but if I hit on just 2/5 of those, that's incredible.

 
Value right now is only important if my intention was to get immediate value from the trade.  Since I traded for a future asset, this is not an immediate value for me and I did not intend it to be.  The immediate value for me is the $30 which could buy me another 2017 1st but I'm not going to use it for that right now.  Timing, of course, has a lot to do with everything.  

To address your other point, I'm a very good drafter, so I don't need the 1.01.  There's always more than 1 fantasy stud, usually many from the 1st round.  Hell, in 2014 and a different dynasty league, I drafted the following players in round 1 and my highest pick was 1.04:

OBJ, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

Granted, that was a super stacked WR class, but if I hit on just 2/5 of those, that's incredible.
bahahaha so even if you don't get the #1 pick and lose value on the deal, you'll still come out ahead. Got it.

I don't need to reconcile it.  Tavon Austin was taken 40 picks earlier (and in a different draft) than AR15.  If Zeke goes top 10, that in itself doesn't do anything to harm the value of this trade.  
didn't you say literally a few posts earlier you would base the Elliot/Henry decision on who was drafted first

 
Value right now is only important if my intention was to get immediate value from the trade.  Since I traded for a future asset, this is not an immediate value for me and I did not intend it to be.  The immediate value for me is the $30 which could buy me another 2017 1st but I'm not going to use it for that right now.  Timing, of course, has a lot to do with everything.  

To address your other point, I'm a very good drafter, so I don't need the 1.01.  There's always more than 1 fantasy stud, usually many from the 1st round.  Hell, in 2014 and a different dynasty league, I drafted the following players in round 1 and my highest pick was 1.04:

OBJ, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson, Devante Adams, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins

Granted, that was a super stacked WR class, but if I hit on just 2/5 of those, that's incredible.
Again (and for the last time cause this is stupid) you are talking about two different things. 

Bottom line, to get the return you got, you could have an should have gotten a better return on the #1 pick while still getting that same future 1st. 

Anything else you talk about in regards to draft picks you have made is completely irrelevant to the value of this trade right NOW.  Right NOW is what is important when valuing this trade.  You could have done better with the #1 pick.  That's the point. 

If you are happy with the deal and it works out, fine, great.  Good for you. That is not what is being discussed.  The current value of the trade seems to be bad, and you seemed ot have sold light. 

Peace

 
Again, what could you trade 30 dollars straight up for do you think?  Without that knowledge this is all pretty much worthless to discuss.  We don't know how the dollars are valued in your league. 
I was going to answer and I realized you might be in this league.  I must stop talking now.  I'd be foolish to give away this info.

 
Again (and for the last time cause this is stupid) you are talking about two different things. 

Bottom line, to get the return you got, you could have an should have gotten a better return on the #1 pick while still getting that same future 1st. 

Anything else you talk about in regards to draft picks you have made is completely irrelevant to the value of this trade right NOW.  Right NOW is what is important when valuing this trade.  You could have done better with the #1 pick.  That's the point. 

If you are happy with the deal and it works out, fine, great.  Good for you. That is not what is being discussed.  The current value of the trade seems to be bad, and you seemed ot have sold light. 

Peace
I know a very smart and rich guy who owns a humungous house that sits on a corner/double lot in probably the best neighborhood in Chicago.  He bought this house for say, $500K 20 years ago and now it's worth $10MM.  He told me his secret.  He said, "Rhythmdoctor, do you know how I got that house?  I offered $5k more than the asking price."

I never said I maximized current value and I don't think it matters one bit.  I wasn't about to get greedy and potentially ruin the deal.  This was our 3rd attempt at a trade after 2 rejections.  I will haggle to the penny on a deal where I'm less certain.  In a deal where I'm more confident, haggling to the penny could be fatal to the deal. I wasn't willing to take that chance.

 
I know a very smart and rich guy who owns a humungous house that sits on a corner/double lot in probably the best neighborhood in Chicago.  He bought this house for say, $500K 20 years ago and now it's worth $10MM.  He told me his secret.  He said, "Rhythmdoctor, do you know how I got that house?  I offered $5k more than the asking price."

I never said I maximized current value and I don't think it matters one bit.  I wasn't about to get greedy and potentially ruin the deal.  This was our 3rd attempt at a trade after 2 rejections.  I will haggle to the penny on a deal where I'm less certain.  In a deal where I'm more confident, haggling to the penny could be fatal to the deal. I wasn't willing to take that chance.
Great analogy, except for the part where he bought a house, one specific house.  He didn't pay 500k for the right to pick his new house out of a hat of several differently valued homes. 

Also the talk of this guy's 2017 1st being some unicorn of a trade acquisition is just great.  Just great. 

 
You've painted yourself into a corner Rhthym, so you'll keep defending it no matter what (and I can't believe I'm agreeing with ghostguy), but he is right.

This was a bad trade for you, whether you realize it or not.

 
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You've painted yourself into a corner Rhthym so you'll keep defending it no matter what (and I can't believe I'm agreeing with ghostguy), but he is right.

This was a bad trade for you, whether you realize it or not.
Just curious, but why would it be hard to believe you are agreeing with me?  I have been rather successful at this dynasty thing.

 
Just curious, but why would it be hard to believe you are agreeing with me?  I have been rather successful at this dynasty thing.
I don't even remember why, but your screen name evokes a negative feeling.

We've probably strongly disagreed on something and/or traded insulting posts in the past.  lol

 
I appreciate your input but I strongly disagree about it being a bad value.  Actually, I understand value better than anyone in the league, which is why I'm so stacked AND I have  more current and future assets than anyone else in the league.  My understanding of value is what I believe to be one of my strongest traits in dynasty.  Sure, I traded away a 1.01 but in return I basically just got two 1st round picks in a draft (2017) that I perceive has better elite prospects - one of those picks has a good chance of being the 1.01. Either way I just increased my chances of securing the 1.01 and/or a top 5 pick.  

I think some owners miss out on beneficial trades because they don't want to short change themselves on current perceived value.  Right now a current 1st is more valuable than a future first.  Right now. But dynasty is not a short-term game. The only thing that matters is winning the overall game.  There are a lot of outcomes that will 'win' that trade for me and there's only 1 outcome where I 'lose' the trade.  Probability is completely in my favor and that's all you can play to be long-run successful in FF.  You must take all information available and bet on the scenarios that probability favors you.  I did that in this case, so therefore, it was great trade value (for now).  Whether I actually win or not won't be decided for a few years.


LOL, here we go.  Why would I need to convince myself of a 'bad' trade that I willingly accepted a few hours ago?

I understand the value of assets in this league.  I'm supremely confident that I maximized probability to secure a profit in this league.  The only way I lose is IF Zeke/Henry (I would have taken whoever went first in the NFL draft) become perennial FF stars AND I don't secure a future perennial FF star myself (next year) to match what I missed from Zeke/Henry.  Both of those things have to happen for me to lose.  There is a chance both happen, but it's not likely.  I haven't even mentioned the extra $30 which I can use to purchase a FA/RFA, use as trade asset, buy another 1st round pick...  That's the icing on the cake and my insurance in case I don't secure a top 5 next season.

The bottom line is that I just increased my odds of hitting next season AND I have insurance on that bet in the form of $30.  I specifically and successfully targeted 2017 1st round picks from, imo, the three worst teams in my league.  I had a predatory strategy that worked to perfection.
I get that you love the 2017 class and are going all in on it.  That's all fine and well.  But good lord this wall of text up above is the biggest load of bunk I've read in this thread.  You are literally describing ascendant "tactics" that are the exact opposite of what you did in this trade.

Just call it what it is.  You are absurdly high on the 2017 class even amongst a community that already acknowledges the strength of the 2017 class.  Just own it.  Going back and trying to claim you're on a higher level of thinking than everyone else through some retroactively created theories that don't even describe the trade you made is a bad look.

 
I'm quite amazed how emotional some of you are getting over my trade.  Apparently you don't like my trade and you feel the need to make this more than what it is.  Good! Great! Grand!  I've exhausted more than enough energy on this.  I've tried to explain my logic but I apparently can't communicate what's intuitive for me, so I'll give up.  Y'all sure love to argue though.

 
I just made this trade. I'm team A. 16 team non-IDP  

Team A gave up:
Year 2016 Draft Pick 1.01

Team B gave up:
Year 2017 Round 1 Draft Pick
Plus $30

His 2017 pick should be a top 5 which now gives me 4 picks in the 1st round of the 2017 draft. On paper, 3/4 of my 2017 1st round picks appear to be top 5 picks which I will use to draft a RB or two. Here are my relevant starters:

Aaron Rodgers
RB?
Odell Beckham
Antonio Brown
Jordy Nelson
Larry Fitzgerald 
Gary Barnidge
Im late to the party here, but in what universe is 4 2017 1sts, that arent 1.01, better than zeke and 3 2017 1sts? Especially when you are dead at RB right now?

 
I've noticed a lot of trades involving 2016 1st and 2017 1st round picks.  At what point in 2016 1st round picks would it make sense to move it for a random 2017 1st round pick (lets assume 10 team league).  If you had the #5 rookie pick this year, would you move it for a random 1st in 2017 - what if it's from a weaker than average team?  How about the 7? 

I'll hang up and listen.

 
I've noticed a lot of trades involving 2016 1st and 2017 1st round picks.  At what point in 2016 1st round picks would it make sense to move it for a random 2017 1st round pick (lets assume 10 team league).  If you had the #5 rookie pick this year, would you move it for a random 1st in 2017 - what if it's from a weaker than average team?  How about the 7? 

I'll hang up and listen.
IMO, it would depend on the make up of your roster, potential needs, and the odds a player that fulfills those needs will be there.

Assuming you have no needs, and arent interested in the player likely to fall to the 5, id move that pick for a '17 1st if i thought there was a reasonable chance it would be a pick in a similar range. Im not moving the 5 for what will likely be the 9 or 10 tho.

 
I've got the 1, 4, and 9 picks this year (along with the 11, 12 and 14), yeah...I know, a bit much.  I've been doing my best in trying to move them for future picks.  Even offered the 9 and 11 for the 2017 1st round pick of this past year's last place team (I think it will still be top 5) and no go.  I think it's going to take the 4 to do that, but I'm not sure if it's worth that.  At 4 I'll still get Doctson or Henry (a bird in the hand kinda thing).

 
I have 5 picks in the top 25 this year, the 4,6 are my highest, had the 12 but shipped it for shady. I have inquired to some bad teams about moving the 4 or 6 for a 2017 first. Theyre hesitant right now, but im sure ill get some nibbles when those picks are on the clock.

 
Pick 12 for Mccoy??  God I wish I could do that.  Well worth it.

As for trading picks this year for next year, especially this year, I have no problem dealing any number pick for the same pick next year.  Now since you can never know exactly what the future pick will be, if I think it will be similar or better, I would have no problem making the  move.  If I have pick 5 and could move it for a team I am fairly positive will miss the playoffs next year, I will happily for it.

This does not apply to every year though. 

Although, essentially every year, I would deal a later 1st for a future 1st that I think belongs to a non playoff team.  In 12 team leagues, I would trade pick 12 for ANY team's future 1st.  I would shop the bad teams first of course, but I will keep trading that late pick over and over for future 1sts until I got lucky and the pick I traded for ends up high

 
I have 3 and 13.  I really, really covet Zeke.   I've been kicking around the idea of trying to package 3 and 13 for 1.  Not sure if I'm giving too much though.  Any thoughts?

 
I have 3 and 13.  I really, really covet Zeke.   I've been kicking around the idea of trying to package 3 and 13 for 1.  Not sure if I'm giving too much though.  Any thoughts?
if you like him that much and you have a real need at rb you'll have to do it to get him.  i wouldn't argue with anyone for making that trade.

 
if you like him that much and you have a real need at rb you'll have to do it to get him.  i wouldn't argue with anyone for making that trade.
DLF's rookie trade chart says 3 and 5 are equal to 1.  3 and 13 are not quite equal to 2.

 
Is that a "standardized" chart, or does it adjust year to year with each set of players eligible for that draft?
It's standardized.  But to take this year's draft into account, I think it would take closer to #3 and #4 to equal Zeke.  Right now he's at least 1 tier higher than the rest of the draft, and you could argue that it's Tier 1 and then Tier 3.

 
It's standardized.  But to take this year's draft into account, I think it would take closer to #3 and #4 to equal Zeke.  Right now he's at least 1 tier higher than the rest of the draft, and you could argue that it's Tier 1 and then Tier 3.
And how many rookies do you see in "tier 3"?

 
Boyd in with the big boys, and no second RB (yet).  Thanks for your answer.  The guy at 5 wants to trade up to 4, and I'm not quite ready to do anything yet (even though I'm pretty sure he'd doing it for Boyd). 

 
In a league I have picks 2,3,4,9.  I will be offering 4/9 for pick 1.  I already know it won't be close, but figure I will try

 
I currently have it

1 elliot

1a Henry (non ppr). In ppr he moves to tier 2 or 2a

2 Coleman doctson Treadwell no order

2a rb3 but that could move up or down

3 Boyd Shepard fuller caroo rb4

4 qbs, te, rb 5+, wr8+. I know some people would move Thomas up. 

No names on the rbs because I'm more worried about situation than opportunity once it gets past elliot and Henry,  although booker and Dixon seem like the next two on the list right now. 

 
In a league I have picks 2,3,4,9.  I will be offering 4/9 for pick 1.  I already know it won't be close, but figure I will try


I currently have it

1 elliot

1a Henry (non ppr). In ppr he moves to tier 2 or 2a

2 Coleman doctson Treadwell no order

2a rb3 but that could move up or down

3 Boyd Shepard fuller caroo rb4

4 qbs, te, rb 5+, wr8+. I know some people would move Thomas up. 

No names on the rbs because I'm more worried about situation than opportunity once it gets past elliot and Henry,  although booker and Dixon seem like the next two on the list right now. 
Lets get the '16 dyno value thread going, whadya say

*edit

made one

 
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Eddie George? :excited:
Yeah he was terrible. So was Robert Smith.

I'm thinking he's confusing Ohio State with Wisconsin. I just can't remember any big time Ohio State RB busts.

In recent seasons they really didn't have any big time RB prospects.

Carlos Hyde (2014) was stuck behind Frank Gore as a rookie and looked great last season before getting hurt.

Boom Herron (2012) was a sixth round pick.

Beanie Wells (2009) was a disappointment but that was mostly due to his inability to stay healthy. He looked good when on the field.

Anotnio Pittman (2007), 4th round pick so what was expected really?

Maurice Clarett (2005), ok here's your bust - but he was a headcase/criminal.

Jonathan Wells (2004) another 4th round pick who received zero hype.

That's every Ohio State RB drafted since 2000. I don't think we can make any determinations of Elliot's chances based off this list. :shrug:

 
TE premium (1.5 PPR), also have to start 2 & can start up to 4 with the flex spots

Ladarius Green 

for 

1.12

 

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