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****OFFICIAL 2021 IN- SEASON DYNASTY TRADES****


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11 hours ago, kutta said:

How is a random 2019 1st worth a 4th in a startup? Is that the standard going rate?

 

7 hours ago, JPeso said:

Agreed. Random 1st is worth more like a 6th/7th than 4th. 

In my experience in FFPC future 1sts are usually 4th-6th in startup drafts.  Usually what happens is the team giving up those 1sts are selling out for year 1 so they tend to be later 1sts.  I might be a bit off with that and if they are late, I could see how it's closer to the 6th than 4th so that makes sense.  

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On 8/17/2018 at 1:15 PM, Aunt Jemima said:

FFPC today, Team A is probable playoff team competing for this year, Team B is rebuilding

Team A gives Guice and Team A's 2019 1st

Team B gives Fournette

So a rebuilding team traded away sure fire stud second year RB? I like Guice a lot but we can’t say for sure he can play at this level and that first is likely to be late.

At best this may turn out to be a wash.

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16 hours ago, Raback said:

I prefer Guice as a player to Fournette as well.  The team situations come into play as well here.  If he is rebuilding Fournette is only going to hurt his draft pick so getting Guice for next year while improving his own draft pick is a win 

Having one good player isn’t going to hurt a rebuild. I mean even when rebuilding you should have a couple of good young players on your team or your rebuild is going to be a long undertaking.

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41 minutes ago, Zyphros said:

 

In my experience in FFPC future 1sts are usually 4th-6th in startup drafts.  Usually what happens is the team giving up those 1sts are selling out for year 1 so they tend to be later 1sts.  I might be a bit off with that and if they are late, I could see how it's closer to the 6th than 4th so that makes sense.  

I’m sure it happened, so not disputing it. More didn’t see it a lot. was more used to seeing 4th for 8th or 9th + 2019 1st. 

I had Guice and Fournette close before the injury. But i think LF will have bigger trade value come W6 then in the offseason assuming he’s healthy. Inevitably, 1-2 teams who want to compete will come knocking with a better package than that. Maybe I’m wrong. But pretty sure I’d be knocking on the door and pony up more than that if my other RBs were underperforming. And keep in mind I do really like Guice but a lost year is a lost year and to the teams in the playoffs Fournette will carry a lot more trade value. 

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17 hours ago, Zyphros said:

Pass catching alone makes me rank them almost the same. I still have Fournette ahead because of what he's proved so far but Guice is the better prospect to me with an all around game for fantasy purposes.  I have very little doubt that Guice will outproduce Fournette when he plays, the only difference is you have to wait to see Guice do it, but it will happen.

There was plenty of speculation on why Guice slipped to the 2nd.  So feel free to keep grasping at that, but there were plenty of people that do that sort of thing professionally to project their slot that had him as a 1st round guy, just like Fournette.  I liked Guice more as a prospect than Fournette before their draft position.  

Even before Guice slipped he was never considered anywhere near a top 5 pick.  Mocks before any of the off the field stuff came out had him anywhere from mid 1st to mid 2nd, which is very different than #4 overall.

Obviously everyone can feel differently about prospects but from a consensus standpoint as NFL prospects they weren't even close.  Receiving ability can certainly change things for fantasy purposes but it's not like we're talking McCaffrey vs. Jordan Howard here.  Guice was used even less as a receiver than Fournette in college and Fournette already has an NFL season with pretty solid receiving numbers under his belt.  His 16 game pace was 45 catches last year.  Are you really expecting Guice in Washington to exceed that very often?

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1 hour ago, JPeso said:

I’m sure it happened, so not disputing it. More didn’t see it a lot. was more used to seeing 4th for 8th or 9th + 2019 1st. 

Yeah, standard going rate at least in FFPC startups I've been in is a startup 6th for a future 1st, or startup 5th for a future 1st+2nd.  This is so ironed out in the FFPC startups I've done that when people are doing startup trades in FFPC leagues I've been in they literally plug the value of the future 1st into trade calculators as pick 6.07.

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3 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Even before Guice slipped he was never considered anywhere near a top 5 pick.  Mocks before any of the off the field stuff came out had him anywhere from mid 1st to mid 2nd, which is very different than #4 overall.

Obviously everyone can feel differently about prospects but from a consensus standpoint as NFL prospects they weren't even close.  Receiving ability can certainly change things for fantasy purposes but it's not like we're talking McCaffrey vs. Jordan Howard here.  Guice was used even less as a receiver than Fournette in college and Fournette already has an NFL season with pretty solid receiving numbers under his belt.  His 16 game pace was 45 catches last year.  Are you really expecting Guice in Washington to exceed that very often?

Maybe not, but in reality the Jags are stupid enough to take Fournette that high as well.  No RB should go that high in a draft.  Ever.  Saquon is the best RB prospect EVER, and he shouldn't have gone that high either.  I don't put much stock into how high Fournette went, because I view that as a dumb choice.

The simple answer?  Yes I do expect Guice to outperform Fournette in receiving regularly.  Chris Thompson will be 28 by next seasons start (almost 29), and there really isn't much of a receiving threat on that team to take targets away, at least right now.  I fully expect that offense to revolve around Guice in the future.  A lot depends on what they do in the draft for the next ~2 years but he's a centerpiece for sure, and if I get another 1st in return, it doesn't even make this a question for me.  I wouldn't take Fournette in the 1st myself and view him roughly at 15-18 overall so I guess that gap is smaller.  

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Non-ppr league with decent sized bonuses for yardage milestones (5 pts for 100 yards and 5 pts for every 50 after that) and long TDs. In general, high volume RBs are very valuable as they consistently score better than other positions

Team A receives: Melvin Gordon/Jordy Nelson/Cameron Meredith

Team B receives: Tyreek Hill

 

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11 minutes ago, gianmarco said:

Non-ppr league with decent sized bonuses for yardage milestones (5 pts for 100 yards and 5 pts for every 50 after that) and long TDs. In general, high volume RBs are very valuable as they consistently score better than other positions

Team A receives: Melvin Gordon/Jordy Nelson/Cameron Meredith

Team B receives: Tyreek Hill

 

In this format it was like Gordon would be the stand alone and the Hill side would be adding pieces. 

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59 minutes ago, msudaisy26 said:

In this format it was like Gordon would be the stand alone and the Hill side would be adding pieces. 

Hard to say without knowing the bonuses for long TDs.  Tyreek blows everyone else in the league away in that category while Gordon has one 50+ yard TD in his entire career.

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19 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Hard to say without knowing the bonuses for long TDs.  Tyreek blows everyone else in the league away in that category while Gordon has one 50+ yard TD in his entire career.

Without going into full scoring specifics, Hill was WR3 in this league last year at ~15 PPG. Melvin was RB5 also at ~15 PPG.

Only 6 WRs were over 12 PPG.

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1 hour ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Cooks by a good bit for me. 

Not a Cooks fan so I would not pay a first and second for him. Having said that, I don't think that's a good exit price for him if that makes any sense. Probably doesn't. Said another way: not sure there is a strong market for him.

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Cooks is one of those guys like Cooper and Jordan Howard- you like them or you don't. Hard to find a good market for him, and no one is ready to over-pay or even pay going rate for any of those it seems. 

 

As a fellow Cooks seller myself, I feel like this is similar to what I got, and I felt like I got a great deal. Considering next year's WR crop I am liking the pick side to that trade

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6 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

Cooks is one of those guys like Cooper and Jordan Howard- you like them or you don't. Hard to find a good market for him, and no one is ready to over-pay or even pay going rate for any of those it seems. 

 

As a fellow Cooks seller myself, I feel like this is similar to what I got, and I felt like I got a great deal. Considering next year's WR crop I am liking the pick side to that trade

Any WR from next years class would be lucky to put up the numbers Cooks has in his first four seasons. 

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Just now, JackReacher said:

Many believe LAR won’t present the passing opps as NO and NE

They traded a first round pick and signed him to a mega contract. That doesn’t sound like the actions of a team that didn’t plan to use him and the Rams had the league’s top offense last season.

 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

They traded a first round pick and signed him to a mega contract. That doesn’t sound like the actions of a team that didn’t plan to use him and the Rams had the league’s top offense last season.

 

Top offense for sure, but if looking at raw passing attempts:

2017 Rams 518

2017 Pats 587

2016 Saints 674

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1 minute ago, JackReacher said:

Top offense for sure, but if looking at raw passing attempts:

2017 Rams 518

2017 Pats 587

2016 Saints 674

That was Goff’s second year starting. That could/should increase and I can’t imagine him not being at least the second most targeted player. Pats and Saints spread the ball around a lot (although Cooks did get plenty of targets).

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30 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Any WR from next years class would be lucky to put up the numbers Cooks has in his first four seasons. 

next years class is quite exceptional where a late pick could be very high talent. I'm not saying cooks is garbage but I see a lot of potential studs in next years class. 

I'm someone who doesnt really think cooks is better than what he is, but that doesnt make him a bad wr, just a great wr2

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44 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

next years class is quite exceptional where a late pick could be very high talent. I'm not saying cooks is garbage but I see a lot of potential studs in next years class. 

I'm someone who doesnt really think cooks is better than what he is, but that doesnt make him a bad wr, just a great wr2

I stand behind my statement. It doesnt matter how exceptional the class looks right now - frankly its too far away to even make any definitve statements, but even if Cooks is only a great wr2, the odds are stacked against landing a great wr2 with any random first.

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1 hour ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I stand behind my statement. It doesnt matter how exceptional the class looks right now - frankly its too far away to even make any definitve statements, but even if Cooks is only a great wr2, the odds are stacked against landing a great wr2 with any random first.

true. not a bad point. chances are the pick busts

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11 hours ago, lardonastick said:

Non-ppr, start 1-2-3-1

John Brown

for

3.08

I’ll take my chances with Brown. Lots of positive buzz around him and he looks like he may have the injuries under control. It’s pretty hard to find a guy like him at 3.08.

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19 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Cooks by a good bit for me. 

11 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

They traded a first round pick and signed him to a mega contract. That doesn’t sound like the actions of a team that didn’t plan to use him and the Rams had the league’s top offense last season.

Tangentially related to your takes on Cooks, I'm curious what you guys are expecting from the Rams offense this year. I genuinely don't have a comfortable take on the Rams offense as a whole, but find it an intriguing topic. 

  • Goff was a former 1.01 pick, but it was a Jeff Fischer pick
  • Goff is relatively young so an improvement on year 2 is not just possible but likely (although it is within the realm of possibilities that last year everything just went right for them)
  • However, the defense is strong, the OL is strong, the RB corps is strong... even if they can throw the ball well, will they actually do it if there is no pressing need?
  • How is Goff's deep accuracy? I recall Sammy truthers blaming Goff for last year. (I'm not a Sammy truther)

As for the Cooks trade, I tentatively lean towards the picks for a few reasons. I think Cooks is an excellent role player, but don't think he's suited to be a WR1. To me, he's like the foil of Landry. He could lose a step and still be a great deep threat. He creates great separation. However, he sucks at catching the ball in traffic, so he'll never be a volume guy or red zone guy. To me that really hurts his long term value unless he's paired with someone like Brees. The other problem is that Woods looked like the team's WR1 last year when healthy and Kupp will soak up some targets in the slot. The team drafted Everett in the 2nd and he should be coming along in his development by year 2. With the aforementioned defense and ground game, I don't know how much I can predict the Rams to move up from 24th in pass attempts (New England was 7th) - and I feel like the 2018 Rams have better receiving options than the 2017 Patriots. 

But I do believe Cooks >> Watkins and the Rams should throw more than 515 times this year if Goff can come close to maintaining his 8 YPA and 5.9% TD rate.

So how do you guys think the Rams will split targets this year? How much of a bump in total targets (attempts) do you expect?

My gut (not reliable) tells me Woods is the WR to own there. He's got a year of rapport with Goff in the system and is a better red zone target than Cooks.

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So the biggest knock against Cooks seems to be that he's not a fantasy WR1 (even though he was one in 2016).

There are only 12 WR1s each season (in 12 man leagues). So it's kind of hard to be starting three WR1s each week - and for those thinking that a random first round draft pick gives you a great shot at landing a WR1 you may want to go back and look over your past fantasy rookie drafts from the last few seasons.

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FFPC - 

  • Team A Gave: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, 2019 1st (1.11/1.12)
  • Team B Gave: Devonta Freeman, Adam Shaheen, 2019 5th, 2019 5th

Team A traded his first earlier in the off-season, and is weak at RB with a lot of RB4's (Foreman, Connor, Gio, AJones).

Team B won the title, and in this deal is buying back his 1st round pick, with Bell, Gordon, Drake, Chubb at RB. 

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2 minutes ago, JPeso said:

FFPC - 

  • Team A Gave: Mike Williams, Courtland Sutton, 2019 1st (1.11/1.12)
  • Team B Gave: Devonta Freeman, Adam Shaheen, 2019 5th, 2019 5th

Team A traded his first earlier in the off-season, and is weak at RB with a lot of RB4's (Foreman, Connor, Gio, AJones).

Team B won the title, and in this deal is buying back his 1st round pick, with Bell, Gordon, Drake, Chubb at RB. 

The value is on the Williams/Sutton side. I like Freeman though and I can see some one overpaying a bit if they were desperate at RB, and Shaheen has value in that format at least. In a vacuum I take the Sutton/Williams side which could look great after this season.

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