Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I think its mostly that there is little to no chance that one of those 1st equal out to a Barkley. Like most said, it would come down to team makeup. I can't see making that trade for Barkley, but then I dont have him. Been working on a trade to get him for a while, but most likely wasting me time.
That's likely a given. But the point is about whole roster management.
My eyeballs kept reading that 2022 pick as a 2nd. So, thats definitely better than I initially thought. I'll downgrade my comments from "brake my wrist" accepting to "think for a couple minutes" before accepting.
With only 5 positional starters though it's unlikely that adding those 4 players will change the actual starting lineup much, other than losing Barkley from it. Historically the most likely scenario is that 2 bust, 1 ends up as decent depth, and 1 ends up being a quality starter far below Barkley.
This. With starting lineup requirements of 1 RB and 3 WR, there’s no way I’m trading Barkley for a bucket of maybes. Lock Barkley in for the next 8 years and fill in the rest some other way.
I follow all of this logic and hope it works out for you. But just wanted to point out that it is Barkley + players filling 3 roster spots, not Barkley alone.
That is exactly how I look at it. Keeping Barkley would absolutely make their starting lineup better, which as far as I am concerned is the only thing that matters. Everyone wants to chase value, but the reason selling/buying studs is wonky is because the name of the game isn't to get value, it's to get points. Barkley is special at getting points in a way none of these others are likely to. If it equals out to something like 1.03 and 1.07 plus the future 1sts then I'd like to have Dobbins and Jefferson and then I'd probably have to think about it. I don't think it's a bad deal but I have made at least 30 different offers in the last couple years that I think are better than this one (because they had proven studs somewhere in the deal) and have *never* got a counter. I own one share of Barkley now and it's only because I took him in a startup (at 1.03 in superflex ahead of Lamar Jackson). I've only seen him moved maybe twice in my leagues. Only once that I can actually point to off the top of my head, and this is going back to when he hadn't even been drafted yet. The 1.01 was untouchable that year.
Right - but I have Akers ahead of Dobbins and Reagor ahead of Jefferson in my rankings. You say you'd have to think about it if it was Dobbins and Jefferson instead - well, it doesn't sound like we are that far off.
If that’s how you want to play it, no problem. Sure, a lot can happen. But I’m not viewing a generational talent like Barkley as “just a three year window” player. I’d wager he returns plenty of value past the age of 26, which is what he’ll be three years from now. And sure, there’s almost no chance he produces elite numbers for eight straight years, but I’ll take my chances on him and three open roster spots vs the four unknowns he was traded for.
I own both Moore and Parker in dynasty, but this wouldn’t come close to doing enough for me to move DJ.
If you want to exempt QBs, I am fine with that philosophy. But I begin every dynasty season by looking at my roster with a three year window in mind.
I hear this a lot, this 3 year window. My question is why the arbitrary amount of 3 years? I never hear a 2 or 4 year window, I truly never understood why the 3 year window was so key for a lot of people.
.5 PPR makes it a bit closer for me, especially if the first turns into a good RB prospect, though on the surface I like the Moore side too.
Good move.FFWC ppr, 1/2/3/1/2, yr2 of orphan rebuild in a lopsided lg with 3 dominant tms
Gave Arob
Got 2021 1st & 2d, Michael Pittman
Hated to give up Arob, but felt it was right move for where this tm is right now (2 yrs away). Picks are from tm that finished dead last in 2020 and should be mid rd or better imo. Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will be playing in Indy next yr
Nice trade for you. I would probably do this even if I was competing.FFWC ppr, 1/2/3/1/2, yr2 of orphan rebuild in a lopsided lg with 3 dominant tms
Gave Arob
Got 2021 1st & 2d, Michael Pittman
Hated to give up Arob, but felt it was right move for where this tm is right now (2 yrs away). Picks are from tm that finished dead last in 2020 and should be mid rd or better imo. Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will be playing in Indy next yr
I like Arob, and generally find him to be undervalued. But for a rebuilding team, that's about the best you can ask for in return for him. He got moved for a single first in my dynasty league last season, and that turned out to be the 1.05 this year. You did well.
Do you play dynasty?
This deal is so perplexing for a team that finished last...ARob is a solid WR but not the guy I am gonna make a sweetheart deal for...this is a case where you can see why this guy finished last.FFWC ppr, 1/2/3/1/2, yr2 of orphan rebuild in a lopsided lg with 3 dominant tms
Gave Arob
Got 2021 1st & 2d, Michael Pittman
Hated to give up Arob, but felt it was right move for where this tm is right now (2 yrs away). Picks are from tm that finished dead last in 2020 and should be mid rd or better imo. Hopefully Aaron Rodgers will be playing in Indy next yr
Rookie deals are usually 4 years, unless a 1st NFL draft round prospect. Most coaching situations don’t last the entire timespan.
Yeah, it was actually an orphan team and he took it over this yr but I agree imho his tm isn't really ready to compete this yr but judging by the move he thinks it can; maybe hes right but the odds are stacked against him. Fwiw, he made the original offer and we countered a couple of times.
That’s fine and thats your approach, but then you’re likely to undervalue someone like CeeDee Lamb and overvalue Keenan Allen. Similarly, I wouldn’t wager heavily on Barkley outproducing Henry over the next three years, but I would if the bet were over the next eight years. You’re right, NFL lifespans are short. But there are plenty of players who provide more than three years of usefulness, and when you end up with one of those the value is immense. Especially at RB, where an all purpose horse can outright win you the league. I’m of the opinion that Barkley is one of those players, and that’s definitely based on the belief that he’s as good a bet as anyone to be elite for the next three years, as well as for plenty of years beyond that after he turns 26. Sure, injuries can derail that, but I’ll roll the dice on that vs the same injury potential and bust factor for Akers, Reagor, and two unknown 1sts.
Yes I play dynasty and not sure what I asked that you felt the need to ask me that question.
4 years seems more apt but I would and do look at each player on an individual basis, there is no set year for anticipated expiration or decline in value that works for all players. Some things are impossible to predict but contract, age/contract of supporting cast, security of coaching staff are key items I review and there is not set timeframe IMO that works but it's more of an individual basis. For example I got a team with a bunch of old WR's, Julio, Hilton and AB. I view that team as having 2-3 years to locate replacement WR's and as such a chance in 2-3 years if I fail at that task I'm looking at a rebuild. Case by case for me.
Getting 3-10 years out of a player is irrelevant. To me the important thing is looking at any player with a 3 year lens, regardless of their age.
If I still owned Allen anywhere, I would be moving him for anything I can get.
But at age 28 he likely has three decent years left in him. And Lamb will likely start out a bit slowly as one of three solid WRs in an offense heavily featuring Zeke, so their production over the next three years is likely to be similar. No? Shouldn’t they be valued similarly as of today? If not, why not? If the answer is because you simply hate Allen, then insert Robert Woods run the same analysis. I’m generally dumbfounded how someone can say they play dynasty and don’t look past three years. I positively refuse to believe that’s actually the case. Otherwise most would take Allen or Woods over Lamb and do cartwheels. Yet nobody is doing that. Why not?
3 decent years as a WR2 at best? That's essentially worthless in dynasty and untradeable.
Rodgers and Williams by a country mile. I'm way down on Christian Kirk's value since they traded for Nuk.
If you're not looking beyond three years, then three years as a WR2 is the opposite of worthless.
But by stating that you're taking into account their likely trade value increasing/decreasing over that time frame, you're absolutely valuing players beyond three years.
Allen is absolutely a depreciating asset, but not necessarily if you're only looking at his value over the next three years. He's likely to be pretty solid for the next three years.
And of course Lamb has an ADP above Allen and Woods. That's not because owners are only viewing these players in a three year window. If they were, they'd heavily lean towards the guy(s) who are likely to score more points over the next three years. Lamb's ADP is higher SOLELY because his outlook and ability to potentially help you win beyond the next three years (and be a non-depreciating asset) is light years better than Allen and Woods. And sure, he has the potential to outscore them as soon as this year.
Mansplaining? Sensitive much? Best of luck in your dynasty conquests over the next three years, kind sir.
I think what @tangfoot is saying is that things change VERY fast in the NFL. You just never know. Heck, just a few years ago the top 3 RB's (or at least 3 of the top 5) were David Johnson, Leveon Bell, and Todd Gurley. Now they can all be had for a song. It's very hard to look out at the landscape and say someone will be stud for 8 years. It just doesn't happen that often.
I would say if your strategy is working and you're winning, then keep doing it! Isn't winning what it's all about? I'm not sure that there is only one way to do it. My strategy is way different but it works, so I'll keep rolling as well!
Kirk side by quite a bit. I have him well ahead of Williams and in a start 1qb league Rodgers wasn't even a starter last year. His value is on name only.
How about if Team B's qbs are Dalton and Cam?
(I know, he'll draft a qb at 2.02, but still...)
Value is still value. In a 1 qb league Rodgers doesn't have a lot to me.How about if Team B's qbs are Dalton and Cam?
He was my 3rd pick in the startup of this dynasty 12ish years ago. I need to just hold him and let him backup Lamar till he decides to hang 'em up.
(I also still have the 1.1 from that draft - Adrian Peterson. I am terrible at this.)
