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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (22 Viewers)

Since the trade being talked about is Watkins for rookie pick 1.03 the rookie player does not have a NFL team yet or any games to compare them by, so the only fair apples to apples comparison would be comparing them as rookie prospects and to ignore how Watkins has performed so far in the NFL. There is no way of knowing how the rookie you draft at 3 will perform, but you can compare the players based on their relative talent level, college performance and draft position.

We don't know where any of the rookies will be drafted yet or how high. Based on mock drafts so far I have not seen any rookie WR being talked about as a top 10 pick of the 2017 draft. We do know that Sammy Watkins was drafted 4th overall and Buffalo traded up to get him.

I do not expect Corey Davis or Mike Williams to demand this price in the 2017 draft.

The 2014 draft WR

1    2014    1    4    Sammy Watkins    WR    21    
2    2014    1    7    Mike Evans    WR    21    
3    2014    1    12    Odell Beckham    WR    21    
4    2014    1    20    Brandin Cooks    WR    20    
5    2014    1    28    Kelvin Benjamin    WR    23    
6    2014    2    39    Marqise Lee    WR    22    
7    2014    2    42    Jordan Matthews    WR    22    
8    2014    2    45    Paul Richardson    WR    22    
9    2014    2    53    Davante Adams    WR    21    
10    2014    2    56    Cody Latimer    WR    21    
11    2014    2    61    Allen Robinson    WR    21    
12    2014    2    63    Jarvis Landry    WR    21    
13    2014    3    86    Josh Huff    WR    22    
14    2014    3    90    Donte Moncrief    WR    21    
15    2014    3    91    John Brown    WR    24    
16    2014    3    97    Dri Archer    WR    23    
17    2014    4    104    Jalen Saunders    WR    21    
18    2014    4    106    Bruce Ellington    WR    23    
19    2014    4    115    Shaquelle Evans    WR    23    
20    2014    4    118    Martavis Bryant    WR    22    
21    2014    4    123    Kevin Norwood    WR    24    
22    2014    5    142    Ryan Grant    WR    23    
23    2014    5    146    Devin Street    WR    23    
24    2014    5    176    Jared Abbrederis    WR    23    
25    2014    6    185    Robert Herron    WR    22    
26    2014    6    189    T.J. Jones    WR    22    
27    2014    6    190    Matt Hazel    WR    22        
28    2014    6    196    Walt Powell    WR    22    
29    2014    6    209    Quincy Enunwa    WR    22    
30    2014    7    218    Michael Campanaro WR    23
31    2014    7    236    Jeff Janis    WR    23        
32    2014    7    239    James Wright    WR    22        
33    2014    7    240    Tevin Reese    WR    23    
34    2014    7    244    Jeremy Gallon    WR    24

Even 6th round pick Quincy Enuwa has produced some decent numbers from this draft class. I think it says a lot about Watkins talent as a prospect that he was considered the best of this very deep and talented group. The top 3 of this draft class seem to be at a higher tier of ability to me than any of the 2017 WRs.

College stats

Sammy Watkins

*2011    Clemson    ACC    FR    WR    13    82    1219    14.9    12    32    231    7.2    0    114    1450    12.7    12
*2012    Clemson    ACC    SO    WR    10    57    708    12.4    3    14    97    6.9    1    71    805    11.3    4
*2013    Clemson    ACC    JR    WR    13    101    1464    14.5    12    6    11    1.8    0    107    1475    13.8    12

Mike Williams

*2013    Clemson    ACC    FR    WR    10    20    316    15.8    3    0    0        0    20    316    15.8    3
*2014    Clemson    ACC    SO    WR    12    57    1030    18.1    6    0    0        0    57    1030    18.1    6
*2015    Clemson    ACC    JR    WR    1    2    20    10.0    1    0    0        0    2    20    10.0    1
2016    Clemson    ACC    JR    WR    15    98    1361    13.9    11    0    0        0    98    1361    13.9    11

If you compare them based on their freshman seasons, pretty obvious that Watkins was better than Williams at an earlier age. Williams did have a better second season than Watkins did. Watkins was better than Williams in the last season of college. This looks close but Williams got to play in two more games.

Last year of college on a per game basis:

Watkins 7.8 receptions 112.6 yards .92 TD
Williams 6.5 receptions 90.7 yards .73 TD

I like Davis slightly more than Williams at this point but I need to watch both players more before I can fairly compare them to WR from previous draft classes. On first blush Davis does not impress me nearly as much as Watkins did.

 
FUBAR said:
Sure.  Especially when you can choose which of the two you want.  Although there's no guarantee, while Williams has been mocked to Tennessee in quite a few mocks which seems promising.  In Walterfootball's most recent, Tampa Bay takes Davis while Williams heads to Arizona.  
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Yep, that is why it's a gamble but one I'd take.

I've also seen a lot of mocks which have Buffalo taking Williams or Davis, which to me lower their value and Sammy's.

The other gamble is I don't consider Fournette and Cook the top two picks as being as much of a sure thing as most. So I think if one of these WR's lands well, it might work against you if assumed that you'd get to pick one of them at 3.

I think the trade is even, I'd take the gamble on 1.3 myself but only if I knew going into the trade that I might be picking Cook or Fournette at 3 or may not have my choice of Williams or Davis.

 
oldmanhawkins said:
Surprised Spencer Ware isn't more sought after.  I thought his issues this year were mostly on Reid.  What am I missing that he's barely a dynasty RB2?  I had trouble coming up with 10 RBs I liked better.  
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Uncertainty about whether he will be a feature back next year, or remain mired in a committee.  Some even expect the Chiefs to draft another RB to compete, if Charles walks.

 
ghostguy123 said:
12 team PPR (FFPC)

Mike Evans and Jeremy Maclin

for

pick 2, pick 3, Derek Carr, and Tavon Austin
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Not sure Maclin's all that valuable next year. He'll be 29 coming off a 44/536/2 stat line in 12 games and 4/28/0 in the playoffs. I don't see much value in Austin either.

So to me this is basically Mike Evans for 

Fournette/Cook at 1.2 and Mike Williams/Corey Davis at 1.3 with D.Carr.

Tough one to call but I can see a believer in the rookies taking the deal, especially if he needs a true QB1, then it's a no brainer for that side.

Say Cook, M.Williams & Carr for M.Evans, I can see that depending on team needs and would probably give it a go if Carr > than what I had, Needed RB help in the form of Fournette or Cook and have a solid WR core that afford to gamble on letting Mike Davis go but will have M,Williams or Cory Davis to groom.

 
PPR dynasty, start 1 RB/2 WR/2 flex

Moved Brandin Cooks/Eric Ebron

Received Todd Gurley, Kendall Wright

Moved Josh Gordon

Received 3.01

 
ThreeThousand said:
PPR dynasty, start 1 RB/2 WR/2 flex

Moved Brandin Cooks/Eric Ebron

Received Todd Gurley, Kendall Wright

Moved Josh Gordon

Received 3.01
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I like Gurley more than Cooks but can see valuation either way for people. Kendall Wright might land someone in FA and make him an asset but right now he's not and I think Ebron is so due to him over Wright I got with the Cooks side.

I'd still gamble on Josh Gordon over the 3.1.

Both trades seem fairly even to me, just a matter of a preference.

 
ghostguy123 said:
That looks really, really bad.  As the other guys said, we probably do not have enough info. 

No idea why people post trades without all the info.  So worthless. 
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Not exactly worthless, but quite often of limited value.

League context is not required, but can be quite helpful in making some sense as to what the parties were thinking. If that information is missing one is who is opining on the trade can be operating in a bit of a vacuum. A trade that looks good or bad in theory, may not be so if one is privy to the background and details.

That is not to say that everyone who posts a trade in this thread needs to give detailed information. But, in theory, the more we know, the better our feedback should be.

Just my :2cents:

 
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pizzatyme said:
Why do people constantly whine about some trades that are posted? Either move on past their post or complain. Your call.
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Good answer and very helpful.

I would venture to guess a good amount of people prefer to have info is all.  Otherwise its impossible to make an educated valuation of a deal.  I dont mean roster, just basics like scoring system, # of teams, and any contract info.  Or if its a devy league.  

Its silly to have people comment on a deal all in favor of one side only to hear some relevant info and completely change everyones valuation of the deal.  

 
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bostonfred said:
I'm fine with saying Gordon is overpriced right now, and I agree he's not likely to repeat his 2016 numbers... ever. I'm talking more about Allen. I keep seeing people prefer the Allrn side of trades I think are lopsided the other way. Apparently I'm much more down on Allen than the consensus.

He's been in the league 4 years and missed 26 of 64 games. The last 3 years he's had season ending injuties - an ACL week 1 this year, a lacerated kidney last year, and a sprained ankle with a fractured collarbone the year before that. That might just be bad luck - his only prior knee injury to his ACL was a PCL in college, and it happened week 1. Or it might be that he plays harder than he practices, or harder than his body is capable of.  It doesn't matter what I think, it matters what a new coaching staff thinks, and whether thry want to give him the volume he was getting before. Red flag.

Red flag 2 is that there are better secondary players around him. Maybe Rivers sets new high water marks, maybe everyone but Allen regresses. But I don't see him getting over 11 targets a game again. That's a big red flag.

Red flag number 3 is that he's never had a full season of wr1 performance. His high water marks are low 70s catches for just over 1000 yards and 8 tds. Yeah, I mentioned the injuries already. But the question is whether he will ever put up true stud wr numbers for a full season. Even in his 2015 half season, he only had 4 tds in 8 games. And now they have two new big targets in williams and henry, a new deep target in benjamin, and a running back who scored a bunch of touchdowns last year.

I don't see Allen becoming a primary option in the red zone, he's a 10-11 yards per catch guy, and he may get a diminished target volume. That makes him a younger Edelman. But he's commanding way more in trades than Edelman did. Think about that before investing heavily in him. 
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I think you are missing the boat on Allen. Allow me to address these supposed red flags:

#1 injuries - through two seasons he missed two games from one awkward tackle that sprained his ankle and fractured his collarbone. Sounds like a pretty routine football injury. Then he got a lacerated kidney. There's no "maybe" about it. That's just a bad luck - pretty much the definition of a fluke injury. Unless you think he's got freakishly soft kidneys this is not an injury you should concern yourself with. Finally, there's the ACL tear. We just saw a 31 yo Jordy Nelson come back from the same injury around the same time frame. I think it's safe to remove the stigma from 15 years ago that was associated with ACL tears. Due to the timing the missed games total is high, but when you remove the fluke lacerated kidney, we're talking about 2 injuries in 4 years, so they're not very concerning. I'm not saying the following are deal breakers or anything, but the constant nagging injuries of Julio and Alshon actually scare me more than Keenan's injuries. I'd rather have a guy be out than playing at 50%. Plus, Alshon is one screw up away from a year suspension but he's frequently valued right around the same as Keenan (and Alshon is 2 years older). 

#2 secondary players/targets - FWIW, Keenan went down in the 2nd quarter for both of his last two injuries, so he's really got 95 targets in his last 32 quarters, which is close to 12 per game. But you don't need Keenan to average 11-12 targets a game. If people were honestly projecting 11 targets per game, he'd have top 3 WR value. A regression in targets is already calculated into his value at this point, so it's very silly to say "he's not going to average 11 targets so I'm going to lower his value." From what I've seen lately, his value is around WR12-14 in dynasty... along with other guys who are likely in the 7-9 targets per game range. So this red flag is akin to saying "I don't think he's going to be a top 3 WR, so I value him less than WR12." Not a legitimate red flag at all. But to address his targets, Henry is basically replacing Gates who was target hog. Benjamin and Williams will probably be splitting time (don't tell that to Williams owners) and working the old Eddie Royal + Malcolm Floyd roles when on the field together. Keenan is still the WR1.

#3 no full WR1 season - like you said, this ties into red flag #1. He's only had 2 healthy seasons, his first two of his career. Expecting WR1 numbers from his first two seasons is kind of a lofty expectation, no? Thus, a pretty silly red flag and really just a sneaky way to complain about his injuries again. He was certainly on his way to a dominant WR1 performance in his 3rd year and all signs pointed to a repeat in his 4th year.

If you read reception perception, his 3rd season's YPR was due to the routes he was asked to run - it wasn't due to his abilities. He's actually a pretty versatile WR and he scores well on all sorts of routes. I'm not sure if you're aware of it, but the new HC opted to retain the services of OC Whisenhunt, so the offense should remain as it was. Personally, I'll be shocked if Keenan averages less than 9 targets a game and I think the other options on the field should really open things up for him (read: higher YPR). Keep in mind, he's got a career catch rate of 69%, so it won't take a ton of targets for him to be a PPR monster. At that rate with 9 targets a game, we're talking about 100 receptions.

 
One More Rep said:
I assume the team dealing Brown is in a rebuild? I like Coleman, and Doctson could become a fantasy starter but seems pretty light to me
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Seems more like a trade made last offseason, not this offseason. Last year that would be getting two top 3~4 picks but both those guys market values have declined quite a bit. In one league I have been getting junk offers like a 2nd rounder + roster fodder from other owners trying to argue that's what they are worth now.

 
FF Ninja said:
That's just a bad luck
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I can see why you're more optimistic about him than I am if you believe this is 100% true. And I usually like buying guys on injury discount. I don't believe that all injuries are predictive of future injuries. But there are some big differences with Allen.

1) "It was just a lacerated kidney" is the kind of thing fans say. The guy who pissed blood, who couldn't move when he had both a sprained ankle and a broken collarbone, and who had to work his tail off to recover from a torn acl, three years in a row, may feel differently. It's hard to recover from an acl. It's not a foregone conclusion that the athlete will power through every workout.

2) There's a new coaching staff. How much will they use the guy who had season ending injuries 3 years in a row? Dion Lewis looks good, but he barely played in the regular season. Victor Cruz averaged 15 yards per catch this year, his best since his rookie year, but he supposedly lost a step. The perception of injury risk and speed impacts how coaches use a player.  With successful new targets in town, he could see a huge drop in targets, even if he stays healthy, and even if he remains productive on a per target basis.

3) His injuries opened up opportunities for guys who do things well. Rivers just had his 5th highest yardage total and 2nd highest td total without allen, and now tyrell williams and hunter henry are entering their second year as starters. Gordon made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. Woodhead may be back. Benjamin was decent. Gates and Inman may still get a few targets. I don't know how much Allen's target share will drop, but everyone seems to agree that it will drop.

4) What is his upside even if he stays healthy?  In 2015, he was getting 1/3 of Rivers' targets, catching close to 80% of them.  That's not sustainable.  Let's use an optimistic projection - he gets a quarter of all targets, he catches 2/3 of his targets, gets the high end of his yards per reception and high end of his touchdown average.
Rivers averaged 36 attempts a game last year - if allen gets 9 targets, and catches 6, that would be 96 catches 1120 yards and 8 tds. How much upside over that do you think he really has?

You seem to think his yards per catch will go up, but then his catch percentage will likely go down.  He might get more deep targrts, but Benjamin and Williams seem better suited to those. He might get more high percentage routes between the 20s, but Henry while be competing for those. And while those numbers are good, if the best case is low end wr1 numbers, and there are multiple reasons to think he won't get there, then he's in the middle of a very big pack.  

 
Buckna said:
Seems more like a trade made last offseason, not this offseason. Last year that would be getting two top 3~4 picks but both those guys market values have declined quite a bit. In one league I have been getting junk offers like a 2nd rounder + roster fodder from other owners trying to argue that's what they are worth now.
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Yea, this would have been a somewhat plausible trade last off-season, would still have been light IMO, but plausible.

 
bostonfred said:
I can see why you're more optimistic about him than I am if you believe this is 100% true. And I usually like buying guys on injury discount. I don't believe that all injuries are predictive of future injuries. But there are some big differences with Allen.

1) "It was just a lacerated kidney" is the kind of thing fans say. The guy who pissed blood, who couldn't move when he had both a sprained ankle and a broken collarbone, and who had to work his tail off to recover from a torn acl, three years in a row, may feel differently. It's hard to recover from an acl. It's not a foregone conclusion that the athlete will power through every workout.

2) There's a new coaching staff. How much will they use the guy who had season ending injuries 3 years in a row? Dion Lewis looks good, but he barely played in the regular season. Victor Cruz averaged 15 yards per catch this year, his best since his rookie year, but he supposedly lost a step. The perception of injury risk and speed impacts how coaches use a player.  With successful new targets in town, he could see a huge drop in targets, even if he stays healthy, and even if he remains productive on a per target basis.

3) His injuries opened up opportunities for guys who do things well. Rivers just had his 5th highest yardage total and 2nd highest td total without allen, and now tyrell williams and hunter henry are entering their second year as starters. Gordon made a huge leap from year 1 to year 2. Woodhead may be back. Benjamin was decent. Gates and Inman may still get a few targets. I don't know how much Allen's target share will drop, but everyone seems to agree that it will drop.

4) What is his upside even if he stays healthy?  In 2015, he was getting 1/3 of Rivers' targets, catching close to 80% of them.  That's not sustainable.  Let's use an optimistic projection - he gets a quarter of all targets, he catches 2/3 of his targets, gets the high end of his yards per reception and high end of his touchdown average.
Rivers averaged 36 attempts a game last year - if allen gets 9 targets, and catches 6, that would be 96 catches 1120 yards and 8 tds. How much upside over that do you think he really has?

You seem to think his yards per catch will go up, but then his catch percentage will likely go down.  He might get more deep targrts, but Benjamin and Williams seem better suited to those. He might get more high percentage routes between the 20s, but Henry while be competing for those. And while those numbers are good, if the best case is low end wr1 numbers, and there are multiple reasons to think he won't get there, then he's in the middle of a very big pack.  
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1) C'mon man. Of f***ing course a lacerated kidney is a serious injury, but you're moving the goal posts here. I was obviously talking about it from a long term football health perspective. The fact remains, this was a fluke injury and not indicative of future injuries, thus, it is silly to call him injury prone due to a lacerated kidney.

2) Ok, now I know you're not even listening. Yes, there's a new HC, but there's not a whole new coaching staff like you keep saying. As I already said, the OC is back. I imagine Whisenhunt will use him this year just like he used him in 2015 and 2016. And as I already said (again), yes, he can stand to lose targets - he was averaging 12 targets per 4 quarters in the last two years. His current value reflects a massive reduction in targets. You are trying to lower his value twice for the same reason. His current value is probably in the 8 target per game range. I expect he'll easily sit around 9 targets per game.

As for Cruz, he has had a rash of serious leg injuries (hamstring, calf, and patella tendon). It is silly to compare him to Allen. People were legitimately speculating if he'd ever play again. The team had to draft a replacement for him. The Chargers are definitely planning on Allen being back to 100% next year. Totally different situation. As for Dion Lewis, his team didn't need him in the regular season. Also a totally different situation and position.

3) Rivers just had the worst completion percentage of his career with those players, so you really think any of them are going to supplant Keenan?? Henry is replacing a dilapidated Gates. The shift in targets from one TE to the next has no impact on Keenan. Williams did well, but he's no elite pass catcher. He's better suited as a WR2/WR3. Benjamin also shined in Cleveland, but was signed to be a complementary piece to replace Malcom Floyd as the deep threat. None of those players will rival Keenan in the receiving pecking order. Over his last two injury shortened seasons Keenan has caught 73 of 96 targets = 76%. Williams caught 69 of 119 for 58%. Granted, his targets probably had a greater aDoT, but it still illustrates that Keenan and Rivers have a good connection that likely won't be replaced by the 2nd year WR.

4) First of all, if you're playing PPR then 96/1120/8 is probably somewhere in the WR6-10 range. And that's a 25% reduction in targets/game, a mere 8% increase in YPR, and a 12% reduction in catch rate (for clarification: (76-67)/76 = 12%). Second, going from 31.2% down to 25% of targets is not optimistic. There's a decent chance he gets more than that. And lowering his catch rate 12% while increasing his YPR only 8% sounds quite pessimistic. So I fail to see your projection as optimistic (thus his upside is not low end WR1). That's not to say I think a 25% target share is unrealistically low. It's certainly a possibility, it's just not optimistic. 

But yes, I agree as YPR goes up, catch % will go down, which you seem to account for by dropping his catch rate from 76% down to 67%. And I agree Benjamin and Williams are better suited for deep targets, but that doesn't mean he'll never run a deep route or that he's not good at them. Keep in mind, he was coming off an injury when he ran at his pro day. As for his upside, I'd say 30% target share, 70% catch rate, and 13.5 YPR would represent a realistic upside for each of those three metrics. 

Here are a couple pertinent quotes from two different analysts: 

It’s true that in 2015, Allen did play a hyper-specific possession receiver role. Of the 298 routes charted for his Reception Perception sample, 58.4 percent were slants, curls, and posts.
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I covered Allen’s injury when I wrote about Rivers above, so I’ll take a brief moment to comment on this whole, “injury prone” thing. I get that he has missed time each of the last two seasons. But let’s think critically here for a second (it’s hard, I know).

I’m not a doctor, but to me, at least, a lacerated kidney isn’t the same thing as persistent concussion issues (Jordan Reed) or lower body soft tissue issues (Jordan Reed). It also isn’t a history of foot problems (Julio Jones) or multiple bone breaks (Tony Romo). So that leaves us with the torn ACL and a broken collarbone. None of this screams of anything more than the down side of variance.

There has also been grumbling about a torn PCL his final college season in 2012 that caused Allen to miss the last few games of the year. Again, we aren’t talking pulled muscles, head injuries, or a history of slow recovery.

I very much understand that there are some razor close calls to make when ranking the top 15-18 wide receivers, and it is difficult for me to explain why Allen is still in my top ten in a way that would convince anybody. So all I will say is, if you are discounting him on this notion he is injury prone, your analysis, in my humble opinion, is lazy and needs some tweaking. Use it as a tie breaker if you insist, but stop trying to find a label for bad luck and embrace the potential value proposition that is Keenan Allen
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FFPC, for those who prefer more information: 1/2/2/2/1/1/1- 16 man cutdown, TE 1.5PPR, 20 man regular season roster, dual flex, 12-team leagues, having trouble making cuts to 16 so people could see this and were low-balling with the offers.

Ryan Mathews

for

3.02

 
FFPC, for those who prefer more information: 1/2/2/2/1/1/1- 16 man cutdown, TE 1.5PPR, 20 man regular season roster, dual flex, 12-team leagues

Gave Jared Cook and 4.6 (paid a 2.10 for Cook a few weeks ago)

Rec'd Delanie Walker and 2018 3rd

 
pizzatyme said:
FFPC, for those who prefer more information: 1/2/2/2/1/1/1- 16 man cutdown, TE 1.5PPR, 20 man regular season roster, dual flex, 12-team leagues, having trouble making cuts to 16 so people could see this and were low-balling with the offers.

Ryan Mathews

for

3.02
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3.2

pizzatyme said:
FFPC, for those who prefer more information: 1/2/2/2/1/1/1- 16 man cutdown, TE 1.5PPR, 20 man regular season roster, dual flex, 12-team leagues

Gave Jared Cook and 4.6 (paid a 2.10 for Cook a few weeks ago)

Rec'd Delanie Walker and 2018 3rd
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Delanie

 
Just did an FFPC trade, but really more curious on thoughts of trade I passed on for the trade I did instead. I suspect consensus will think I made a mistake, consensus might be right. I'll go ahead and give more info than you probably want but I'll assume everyone knows FFPC rules, cut down to 14 position players by mid March being key.

Due to this very thread when someone posted a trade of Tyrell Williams for a 1.7 and some thought that was acceptable it dawned on me he was more valued than I thought. So this morning I posted in my league I'd trade Tyrell for anyone's 2017#1 and  would consider a 2018#1. In less than an hour I got two solid offers from the same owner. I knew for certain I wanted one of the offers but took me a good hour of a lot of personal back and forth to decide which one.

The offer I accepted was:

Gave: Tyrell Williams

Got: 2018#1 from team under new ownership but was 4th worst team in league last season and based on current rosters I project as non-playoff, top 6 pick next season.

The trade I did not accept:

I would have given:Tyrell Willilams, Tevin Coleman and Vance Mcdonald(50/50 at best before trade to even be kept, still not sure but this helps)

I would have got: TY Hilton

Reasoning/background info. My team is good, studs and depth. Like most dynasty leagues it's not alone, 1-2 other loaded teams in the league. Maybe Hilton puts me over the top, maybe I don't need him to, I would project my team as the favorite with or without Hilton but for sure other good teams. Julio/Brown are are my top two WR's and other key strength of team is Bell/Gurley(if we can still call him a strength-I do). So 28-29 year old WR's and RB's who no matter how young they are it's a volatile position to I have to view them as 3-5 year guys and anything past that is gravy. All in all a team with an outstanding 2-3 year window IMO. I get Hilton that sure makes that 2-3 year window that much more enticing so I see the benefit but barring me pulling off  a trade and moving Julio/Brown/Hilton/Bell  it's team that has like a 2-3 year lifespan and starts to look a little old, might still be good, but for sure old.  I decided I had enough pieces to compete now and by keeping Tevin and the 18#1 vs Hilton I had young pieces to keep or work with to help the team transition better a few years down the line when some of my players start to fade. 

On Tyrell I  would have projected him as the #4 or #5 WR next season. Have zero remorse moving him, just not sure I took the right offer.

Also with both trades it provided extra benefit of clearing up at least one roster spot and I do have some tough cuts.

 
fruity pebbles said:
Keenan
Click to expand...
I agree right now but it's close enough it could change. Right now in a single PPR league I won't give 1.4 for Keenan but I'd give you 1.5, assuming I was not like stocked to death at WR and dying at RB. 1.7 is good price to pay, great price to pay if position need dictated the move, might find a comparable valued RB at 1.7 if things fall right but I think you'll be hard pressed to find a comparable receiver at 1.7 in this draft.

 
menobrown said:
Just did an FFPC trade, but really more curious on thoughts of trade I passed on for the trade I did instead. I suspect consensus will think I made a mistake, consensus might be right. I'll go ahead and give more info than you probably want but I'll assume everyone knows FFPC rules, cut down to 14 position players by mid March being key.

Due to this very thread when someone posted a trade of Tyrell Williams for a 1.7 and some thought that was acceptable it dawned on me he was more valued than I thought. So this morning I posted in my league I'd trade Tyrell for anyone's 2017#1 and  would consider a 2018#1. In less than an hour I got two solid offers from the same owner. I knew for certain I wanted one of the offers but took me a good hour of a lot of personal back and forth to decide which one.

The offer I accepted was:

Gave: Tyrell Williams

Got: 2018#1 from team under new ownership but was 4th worst team in league last season and based on current rosters I project as non-playoff, top 6 pick next season.

The trade I did not accept:

I would have given:Tyrell Willilams, Tevin Coleman and Vance Mcdonald(50/50 at best before trade to even be kept, still not sure but this helps)

I would have got: TY Hilton

Reasoning/background info. My team is good, studs and depth. Like most dynasty leagues it's not alone, 1-2 other loaded teams in the league. Maybe Hilton puts me over the top, maybe I don't need him to, I would project my team as the favorite with or without Hilton but for sure other good teams. Julio/Brown are are my top two WR's and other key strength of team is Bell/Gurley(if we can still call him a strength-I do). So 28-29 year old WR's and RB's who no matter how young they are it's a volatile position to I have to view them as 3-5 year guys and anything past that is gravy. All in all a team with an outstanding 2-3 year window IMO. I get Hilton that sure makes that 2-3 year window that much more enticing so I see the benefit but barring me pulling off  a trade and moving Julio/Brown/Hilton/Bell  it's team that has like a 2-3 year lifespan and starts to look a little old, might still be good, but for sure old.  I decided I had enough pieces to compete now and by keeping Tevin and the 18#1 vs Hilton I had young pieces to keep or work with to help the team transition better a few years down the line when some of my players start to fade. 

On Tyrell I  would have projected him as the #4 or #5 WR next season. Have zero remorse moving him, just not sure I took the right offer.

Also with both trades it provided extra benefit of clearing up at least one roster spot and I do have some tough cuts.
Click to expand...
You made the right call.  Coleman looks like he might be pretty good when given a chance to shine.

Also, future 1sts are GOLD at the trade deadline, especially a projected high 1st.  It give you the ability to look for deals to fill a need.  You never know what will shake out the first 7-8 weeks of the year. 

Also, a lot of times teams look to trade aging studs if they are sucking and have no playoff shot.  For example, if the team with Antonio Brown is 2-6 with no playoff chance, they may look to move Brown for a young player with potential and a projected high 2018 1st, or something to that effect. 

Or even keeping that pick and trading your own 2018 1st for guys like Nelson, Mccoy, Murray.................that type of thing to either fill a need or put you over the top to get a bye. 

Hilton is nice to have, and really you couldnt go wrong either way on this one, but I prefer the move you made give your roster makeup and the options that pick gives you later on.

 
12 Team PPR: Loaded with young  guys had to consolidate. Would do this regardless of consolidation need.

Got: Bell Gave: Prosise, White, Hunter Henry, 2.4, 2.11

Past week in this league with two trades I've done the following net net:

Give: Howard/Prosise/White/Hunter Henry/1.4/1.11/2.4 

Got: Zeke/Bell

 
Last edited by a moderator:
jeaton6 said:
12 Team PPR: Loaded with young  guys had to consolidate. Would do this regardless of consolidation need.

Got: Bell Gave: Prosise, White, Hunter Henry, 2.4, 2.11
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Somebody traded Bell for a bunch of question marks? Damn.

Some of these trades listed in here are really strange to me. I know "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" and we all value players differently - but how does anyone think they got a good deal for Bell, here? Henry had a very nice rookie season, but it was heavily TD dependent and there's no guarantee he continues to develop (but I do like him). The rest? Meh, mostly long shots - even Prosise who I know many like. White's lower leg injuries would scare me away. This deal is paying the price of each parts' upside.

 
Sitch said:
I bet your league is really happy with those deals, lol
Click to expand...
Funny enough there were 4 comments on the Zeke trade and it was split 50:50 both sides saying it was stupid/lopsided trade  2 for Zeke side and 2 for other side. No peanut gallery comments yet on Bell trade. Will keep you posted.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Somebody traded Bell for a bunch of question marks? Damn.

Some of these trades listed in here are really strange to me. I know "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" and we all value players differently - but how does anyone think they got a good deal for Bell, here? Henry had a very nice rookie season, but it was heavily TD dependent and there's no guarantee he continues to develop (but I do like him). The rest? Meh, mostly long shots - even Prosise who I know many like. White's lower leg injuries would scare me away. This deal is paying the price of each parts' upside.
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I'm high on White and Henry not so much Prosise. I like the deal obviously. But  if White hit his upside (which to me is top 10 WR) then that plus a top 2/3 TE is ballpark equal to Bell. Subbing names like Watkins/Eifert or Watkins/Kelce that are valued as top 10 WR and top 2/3 TE probably is pretty close to Bell on value. 

 
jeaton6 said:
I'm high on White and Henry not so much Prosise. I like the deal obviously. But  if White hit his upside (which to me is top 10 WR) then that plus a top 2/3 TE is ballpark equal to Bell. Subbing names like Watkins/Eifert or Watkins/Kelce that are valued as top 10 WR and top 2/3 TE probably is pretty close to Bell on value. 
Click to expand...
Perhaps - but, not only would those packages be far more safer and better value, I don't see it as a slam dunk that anyone would move Bell for that unless they were in a total rebuild.

White does have upside but he also has major major risk. These constant lower leg injuries to start his career could potentially ruin his career (i.e. Hakeem Nicks, et. al.). Plus the Bears may be drafting a rookie QB, may keep Jeffrey and/or Meredith could outshine White.

You can't move a still young RB like Bell, and for a hope and a prayer. You're counting on both those players hitting their upside.

 
FFPC:

Gave: 2.11, 2018#2(projected late), Vance Mcdonald (Ryan Griffin but he was 100% getting cut so really nothing  to me)

Got: Jimmy Graham

Best TE on the team is/was Rudolph and a bunch of solid potential guys with upside, like Mcdonald, but who have not done enough to make me think I can count on them. Jimmy G gives me two solid TE options I can trust and I had some extra picks to work with, in both 17 and 18 I retain two picks higher than the two seconds I gave out. The other guy is rebuilding.

 
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