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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (23 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
JackReacher
Footballguy
Never rostered Ingram on any team or even pursued a trade for him, so guess that means I have no interest. I will take the picks
ghostguy123
Footballguy
For a little bit of ROSTER context which I never really include, I am the team trading for Ingram. I have a very good team but with a weakness at RB, along with picks 2,7,10,11 this year.
In a vacuum I would prefer the picks, but I need a RB and have other picks to work with, so I figured F it.
In a vacuum I would prefer the picks, but I need a RB and have other picks to work with, so I figured F it.
garlicduck
Footballguy
JackReacher
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
When you are strong everywhere else sometimes thats all you need.JackReacher said:
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
12 team ppr - QB-2RB-3WR-TE-FL
- Team C gave up Howard, Jordan CHI RB;Langford, Jeremy CHI RB; Year 2017 Draft Pick 2.02
- Team S gave up Year 2017 Draft Pick 1.02;Year 2017 Draft Pick 2.08
One More Rep
Footballguy
garlicduck
Footballguy
I'd go Howard - over 1600 total yards as a rookie who didn't start at the beginning of the year. Plus a bump in 2nd round.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I take Howard purely because I assume team C traded in for Cook. I wouldn't take Cook so therefore I go Howard.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was Team S - Team C also has the 1.01 (he earned it) and has mentioned Cook as a target but he's not locked in. He took over a terrible team and has been tearing it down and rebuilding the last two seasons - and has a pretty nice/upside team now.
I was in the championship game (and lost) last season so being more in "win now" mode, I thought adding Howard (who in theory still has long term value as well) was the safer route. I still own the 1.11 as well and now the 2.02 to add some prospects.
@FreeBaGeL opened my eyes on Howard statistically earlier in this thread by listing all rookie runners that accomplished what he had last season. I went back and watched some highlights and cut-ups and it was not a fluke.
My line-up for next season will be Dak (or Romo) / Zeke / Bell / Howard / Cooks / Hopkins / Jordy Nelson / E. Bennett (or Julius Thomas). There are 4-5 really strong teams in this league, 3-4 that are on the next tier and then a few bottom feeders/rebuilders. So I'd rather add Howard then take my chances on a rookie at 1.02, while my trade partner was in position to take a "shoot for the stars / more upside" approach.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
cobb side
I think you may have been able to get more for rudolph coming off the year he had, but thats prolly his actual value
Casting Couch
Footballguy
A bunch of Steady Eddies throughout your lineup is what wins Fantasy Championships.JackReacher said:
garlicduck
Footballguy
No-brainer with that team. Plus, even when I didn't know what your team details, I thought you got the better end.
Also, if I'm rebuilding I don't trade a 22 year old stud and a high 2nd round pick for a chance to draft Cook or whoever. Best case; Cook becomes Howard, Worst case; Cook busts or lands in a bad situation and your team is worse off than before. I don't see a lot of upside for him.
JackReacher
Footballguy
disagree. a bunch of steady eddies will have you in the dreaded middle of the pack in dynasty
JackReacher
Footballguy
A half-season of Howard (who played great) isn't best case. If Howard does it over 2-3 seasons, then yes that would be best case. But he needs to do it again.
Studs win fantasy championships. I sort of view most dynasty leagues as a stud arm's race.
That being said I think a guy who has been a top 10 PPG RB is a little bit of a cut above a random steady eddie. I mean you got a guy returning third round redraft type value right now in this case I can see Ingram helping put a team weak or thin at RB over the top or at least carving out a few wins or VP's that impact playoff seeding.
garlicduck
Footballguy
What I'm saying is that Howard IS currently a top 5-8 RB based on what he did last year (over 1600 yards). You hope that's his baseline...it doesn't always happen. But why trade him for a rookie pick in the hope that rookie will equal that? If I'm rebuilding Howard IS my building block. Plus he also moved down in the second round - again if I'm rebuilding, I need multiple players.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Looking back he was RB 13, 12, 9 in my ppr league last 3 years, so I guess I underrated him some. Steady for sure and helpful to a studly squad. But he's not someone who I would want to build around
JackReacher
Footballguy
Chicago is such a mess so that it stops me from investing in Howard. Too much risk for me personally, although very much appreciate what he accomplished.
Howard was great last season but if you look at recent history of rookie RB's the majority of highly successful Rb's bust their second season. I might be forgetting someone, I usually do when I think of stuff like this, but going to back to 2012 I can think of these guys who were top 10 RB's as rookies: Trent, Martin, J Hill and Gurley. They all went way downhill in year two. Lacy was the one top 10 rookie RB I can recall who maintained in year two, but went off the rails after. So not a big sample size but 4 out of 5 lost considerable value after their second seasons and Lacy took 3 years to lose value. Bell was close to top 10 so he's be one you could include as somewhat highly succesful rookie RB who increased his value heading into season 3 vs season 2. Gio was somewhat similar in year one and two but his value has never been close to what it was after his rookie season. That's another way of looking at this, how many of these succesful rookie RB's kept the same value heading into year three they had heading into year two? I'd say just Bell and Lacy and again Lacy would fall off the next season. How many saw an increase in value heading into season 3 vs season 2? Bell. That's it. So in terms of investing in them based on rookie season performance not usually working out.
On the flip side we've recently seen RB's like Freeman, Gordon and Ajayi look pretty poor in year one and see massive value drops only to see heavy increases in value after their second season. You could even put a guy like Bell in both categories, he was solid after his rookie season but had not started re-doing his body and carried a lot of concern among people as a 3.5 YPC type plodder.
Point? Maybe we overrate rookie RB performance or lack thereof. Not seeing the steady growth or maintaining current level of play we see when compared to rookie WR's who perform well.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What would make the Bears more of a mess than they were last season? They will add another impact player(s) through the draft and (imo) Glennon is an improvement over Cutler and Barkley who were drive killers with all their turnovers.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Not sure it can be much worse than last year where Cutler, Alshon and Zach Miller missed most of the year. Also, Cook is probably not going to go to an ideal situation either.
JackReacher
Footballguy
Could be a little worse. Could be a little better, Could be the same. But I fully expect the Bears to be bad. If Howard is able to produce consistently for a full season on that team, then he will reward supporters. I personally want no part of it at his price.
kutta
Footballguy
matttyl
Footballguy
To be fair, last year the WR in this equation would have been who, Antonio Brown? And the #1 and #4 picks would have been Zeke and either Doctson or Michael Thomas? Zeke alone wins that trade.
Kinda hard not to rebuild with the #1-4 picks in this year's draft.
kutta
Footballguy
There's no Zeke in this draft, and OBJ is a lot younger than Brown.
OBJ is a "sure thing" and is very young - the perfect piece already for someone rebuilding. Who are you going to get at 1 and 4 that can be better than him?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Normally I'd be right there with you. I've long argued around here that 2nd year RBs coming off a solid rookie season are the most dangerous and overrated assets in fantasy. You normally have to pay the price of a guy that's had 10 consecutive top 3 seasons but is still somehow only 23 years old for a guy that's really had only one solid season and is still a big unknown.
However there are two things at play with Howard that make me treat him differently. The first is that you DON'T have to pay that kind of price for him. I mean had this guy been a first round NFL pick that people were talking about a year before like Gurley or Zeke and then put up the year he did as a rookie we'd be sitting here talking about what top 10 dynasty asset you need to add to Odell Beckham to trade for this guy. Instead he's got 3rd round startup value and can be had for a very reasonable price.
The other big difference is that there is a difference between a good rookie season and a GREAT rookie season, and by nearly every metric Howard's was great.
You wanted to look back at RBs coming off solid rookie seasons, but let's limit that to RBs coming off great rookie seasons like Howard had. This is the list Dr Octopus was referencing on the prior page. These are the guys to rush for 1200+ yards as a rookie.
Fred TaylorChris JohnsonLadainian TomlinsonMatt ForteSteve SlatonMarshall FaulkAdrian PetersonJamal LewisEddie GeorgeDoug MartinMike AndersonCurtis MartinClinton PortisEdgerrin JamesAlfred Morris
Ezekiel ElliotJordan Howard
We're looking at 15 players here (not counting Zeke/Howard for whom the future is still unknown) and we're talking about two busts (Slaton/Anderson), two guys that had decent careers (Martin/Alf), and 11 super duper studs. Eleven!! 73% of the time someone has rushed for 1200 yards as a rookie they've ended up being a long-career borderline all-time fantasy great stud. Not good. Not solid. AMAZING.
And if we lower the criteria to players that ended up being merely "pretty good" we're talking about 87% of the time they've hit that mark or better. 87% for anything is unheard of in fantasy football.
I'm not saying Howard is some kind of lock but those odds at the price he's being moved for just seems like some of the best value you can possibly find. I don't know what percentage of people picked 1.02 in the rookie draft end up becoming all-time fantasy great level players but I've got to imagine it's a lot lower than 73%.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Fournette is a top 8 assett in non-PPR formats. This time last year, most of us thought Fournette > Zeke. At the very least, he's got that upside; and Zeke >>> OBJ in standard formats.
In PPR formats, it's obviously an awful trade. I don't mind it here, however. I could see Fournette outscoring OBJ as a rookie.
Just my opinion, of course; and I'm high on Fournette.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I agree, so many PPR leagues anymore that I think sometimes we forget how valuable a player like Fournette is in non-PPR.Concept Coop said:
3-down workhorse RBs that score touchdowns are just something you have to have in order to compete in those leagues, and there aren't many of them and you're not getting a proven one for OBJ. Getting Fournette and hoping for the best is probably the most likely way to get there, and OBJ isn't as irreplaceable there as he is in PPR.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
PPR standard scoring all touchdown are 6 points. start 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1 te, 2 flex, k, and def
I gave 1.9 and Dak Prescott.
I got 2.7 and Jay Ajayi.
Made the playoffs last year and was really another good back away from being in the title game. (Peterson, Hyde, Ware, C.J. Anderson, T. West)
Still have Rodgers as my quarterback with Garoppolo and Sieman backing him up.
I gave 1.9 and Dak Prescott.
I got 2.7 and Jay Ajayi.
Made the playoffs last year and was really another good back away from being in the title game. (Peterson, Hyde, Ware, C.J. Anderson, T. West)
Still have Rodgers as my quarterback with Garoppolo and Sieman backing him up.
garlicduck
Footballguy
Excellent points by FreeBaGel on Howard's rookie year. Plus, you have to base the future on something...if we were talking about Gurley having these #'s and not Howard, there would be no discussion because we are talking about the almighty Gurley. Yet Howard's stat blew Gurley away but everyone give's Gurley the benefit of the doubt and he's still a top-5 guy - remember Trent?menobrown said:
Another point is that you cherry-picked the rookies by not mentioning all the top 5-10 rookies that not only didn't have a good rookie season, but never did anything - guys like Bishop Sankey, Kadeem Carey, Tre Mason, Monte Ball, Christine Michael, David Wilson, Isaiah Pead, Marcus Lattimore (yes, I picked him in the top 10) to name a few.
Do I think Dalvin will be one of the above? No, but there is that chance. Give me Howard and #14 over #2 pick.
One More Rep
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
12 team PPR FFPC scoring. We have to cut to 16, including K and D, prior to rookie draft. That might matter in this trade:
Team A gives OBJ and 2018 1st (from different owner who could be anywhere at end of year)
Team B gives Corey Coleman, CJ Anderson, Will Fuller, Procise, DJax, Dennis Pitta, 1.06, 2.03, 3.03, 3.10, 4.03
It's a haul but I'm not sure it's a good one.
Team A gives OBJ and 2018 1st (from different owner who could be anywhere at end of year)
Team B gives Corey Coleman, CJ Anderson, Will Fuller, Procise, DJax, Dennis Pitta, 1.06, 2.03, 3.03, 3.10, 4.03
It's a haul but I'm not sure it's a good one.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Aren't those rosters limited to 20? and 14 in the offseason? Even without the roster limits the trade is bad, but if I am correct on the limits it is horrendous!!!
JackReacher
Footballguy
FFPC player here. This is really bad. '18 first is on the the wrong side. And even then, it's terrible. No real valuable guys coming back, and no way to roster them all anyway.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It's not a FFPC league. I should have just said TE premium. But the rosters do need cut to 16 before the rookie draft. 20 is the limit during the season. All of the players listed on the "bad" side are taxi squad eligible with the exception of Pitta. But yeah I still don't like it. The 2018 1st is my own. I traded it to the original OBJ owner in the trade above, along with Fitzgerald, for Kelvin Benjamin. I need a better RB core to truly compete this year, but I plan to find a couple, so theoretically that 2018 1st is somewhere in the middle to late. But who knows?
Casting Couch
Footballguy
Let me guess. Team B is already stacked, now adding OBJ makes them super stacked.
It's trades like this that create imbalance in dynasty leagues. The classic quantity for quality dopeshow trade.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Oh my Ajayi by a mile even if the 2.7 were on the other side and were the 1.10 instead. Dak doesn't even move the needle in a 1 QB league.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
No team B is strong but not elite. He's a bit thin at RB and is just streaming QBs. Keenan, OBJ, Watkins, now, though. And Jordan Reed at TE. Team A will be cutting talent though. He's a very active trader, though and may be able to get some good returns on some of these pieces.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
12/ppr another Edelman trade 1/2/3/111
edelman/kelce
for
ar15
edelman/kelce
for
ar15
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for using the man's correct nickname!!!
