rockaction
Footballguy
I missed that. I more concentrated on the explanation of the first. Sorry. Not a good job of reading by me.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (39 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
This league uses owner vote to approve/veto every trade, majority of uninvolved owners. This was the first trade (league started in 2020, going into 3rd season) that was vetoed (6-2 at the time the veto was triggered). 4 owners, including myself, did not have a chance to vote. I didn't see the trade or votes until after it had all transpired. Stupid work
The owner trading away Josh Allen has shown a history of making lopsided (against himself) trades. Guess the league took a stand even though there was no collusion. I think it was a severe underpay for a consensus top 4 dynasty superflex asset.
Don't want to derail the thread with opinions about allowing vetoes or not. The sentiments posted clearly indicate that this was lopsided, which was my opinion when I saw all of the action. Have since made an offer for Josh Allen, giving more, in my perception, than that package but Allen owner hasn't been on to accept or decline.
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
Dynasty PPR
Amon-Ra
Late 1st
for
Diggs
Mid 2nd
Amon-Ra
Late 1st
for
Diggs
Mid 2nd
Boston
Footballguy
Very interesting deal...a lot depends on what you you are looking to do both short and long term...I like the Diggs side better because it is a lot safer...Brown is 5 years younger which is a big plus, but Diggs looks like he still has at least 3 year more good years left and his QB is far better than Brown will probably have for a while...I would like to see a bigger gap in that pick...either it be a higher #1 or that #2 being a #3...if you are totally sold on Brown I can understand doing this but overall I don't think that is a ton to give up for a stud like Diggs.
battlestar
Footballguy
That one guy
Footballguy
I didn’t watch any of the Lions, is the sun god really that promising or a benefactor of a depleted offense with not much else to turn to? I know Diggs has a little bit of a ding to value with his age, but I’d be hard pressed to take such a deal for him; would much rather have a RB than Ra on top of random late 1st in ‘22
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
St. Brown is a good football player who is versatile and will continue to play a big role. With that being said it probably is not a bad time to sell high. The lack of outside weapons (which should change after the off-season) and Hockenson’s injury definitely played a role in him being targeted as much as he was. This doesn’t take away from his incredible start to his career but I would expect the Lions to become a little more balanced going forward.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
That is in the eye of the beholder. I just think if you were looking to get into the next tier it may be a good time to start sniffing. Rankings vary greatly from person to person in dynasty but the way he finished the year I am not sure his value will ever be higher.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I could see a high-2022 2nd easily. Maybe even a mid-2023 1st.
I’m not sure what I’d be willing to pay, personally - something in that range. His 5-game run down the stretch was undeniably awesome, and quite a bit of that was a combination of talent & volume. He continued to perform even after Swift returned, which many of the writers hedged agains in their commentary. Yet he just keeps sponging up short & intermediate targets, and his RuTd tells me he’s got great vision & patience.
I don’t see getting burned by dealing for him - he’s an intriguing weapon for an offense in need of them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The flip side of this is that despite being practically their only outside receiving weapon, he still produced at an incredible level. Add Hock & a healthy WR corps, and theoretically his coverage should soften up a little. Should balance out the potential drop in targets.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hi 2nd isnt exactly selling high.
Mid looking future 1st is probably closer to his value.
Who knows. I will likely never own him
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. I like the Claypool side because I like Claypool. You maybe could have given less of a piece in addition if you were searching for Smith. But it's FFPC so you're probably clearing out roster space.menobrown said:
I don't know. This seems okay if you like Smith a bunch.
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Thanks, I'm soured a little on Claypool. He's a great athlete who does not look like he is learning how to play the position. For sure he could start getting to together and he has some Metcalf type upside but two years I'm just not seeing him evolve.
But for me this is more about getting Devonta Smith then being down on Claypool or roster space.
Both WR's have QB issues but Steelers have never had a losing record under Tomlin and that's going to make it hard to get in position to draft a highly coveted QB. To me the odds of Steelers struggling at QB for at least the duration of Claypool's contract the next two years is very high. Meanwhile the Eagles less then 2 years ago said they wanted to be a QB factory and I know their analytical department is big on passing game, maybe not Siraini, but he's not the one holding the power. A team with this mindset and 3 #1 picks is not a team I see just saying "lets roll with Hurts" another year. I will be extremely surprised if they don't use some or all of these picks to try and upgrade QB and I guess I'm betting on it, betting Eagles figure out their QB situation before the Steeler's do.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was going to say something about that, but didn’t know if you were looking that far ahead. That’s interesting. Good luck.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Fair, but I’m not in love with either side of this deal.menobrown said:
Pollard has a legit shot at a feature back role if/when EE misses time. And he’s a significant talent.
Claypool - huh. A lot depends on who’s QB in PIT next year & for the foreseeable future. He has talent.
Smith could be anywhere on the spectrum from Claypool to something better. I’m not entirely sold on the Eagles offense or Hurts (I’ve never been a big Hurts guy as far as a passer). Smith was 64/916/5 this year, and that could well be what he is with Hurts under center.
I guess not being positive of what’s going to happen with PIT or PHI, I’d want the Claypool/Pollard side. More pieces to potentially deal later.
I don’t think it’s a terrible deal for either side, though.
FWIW, my trade calc has either Claypool or Pollard as ~70-80% of Smith’s value in a 1:1, but both together come out to 187-134, so at least this trade calc sees this as a pretty heavy overpay for Smith on paper. It is seen as a moderate upgrade at WR though, which is likely accurate depending on what PIT does at QB next season.
To each their own but I actually used Hindery's trade value chart to craft the offer and per his chart, which IMO is the best one going, I actually won 26-25 in value for Smith vs Pollard/Claypool.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At the end of the day what really matters is that you're happy with the deal.
And the friends you made along the way.
rockaction
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I was just there. Are you a subscriber?
eta* https://www.footballguys.com/article/2022-dynasty-trade-value-january
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rockaction
Footballguy
No, I wouldn't, either. I think Zeke still has another year in him as far as a TD-dependent back goes, but most people aren't dealing Mitchell for him. I personally roster Zeke in one league and can't get anything for him, really. Lopsided trade, maybe. I wouldn't trade Damien Harris for Zeke and Zeke is ten points higher on Hindery's chart.
Hindery's chart doesn't really take market value into consideration, it seems. Because KeepTradeCut has Zeke at about RB24, while Elijah Mitchell is RB16.
So it's a little slow -- Hindery's chart -- in the lag time between market value that day and market value Jan. 5th.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He defines his values as specifically FPs over replacement aggregated over the remaining expected career arc of player x, y z.
Market values aren't a part of the calculation. Yet it can be incredibly useful as a proxy for such. I try to pull from many sources and use as milemarkers for an estimate of market consensus. Some are specifically pulled from crowdsourced data and others like Hindery, are not. He does update his list the first of every month so the timelag is pretty predictable.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Also, no calculator that I am aware of can tell you how narrow or wide the market is for a given player. Let's pretend we all agreed on what the value should be for Zeke. Nobody wants to buy him. There is no market.
"What if the price were right, though?"
It won't be. People will hold before selling Zeke for pennies. And at what may be consensus value, nobody is buying. So the number in a calc is useful but limited.
"What if the price were right, though?"
It won't be. People will hold before selling Zeke for pennies. And at what may be consensus value, nobody is buying. So the number in a calc is useful but limited.
rockaction
Footballguy
Interesting. I wonder how he calculates the expected career arc of a player and would like to know the inputs to Fps over replacement. I know Adam Harstad does new work calculating expected career longevity. This is from 2015, but he continues his work until today. You should follow him on Twitter and check out his blog. He writes for FBG, just in case you were unaware. (You're likely not.)
https://www.footballguys.com/article/HarstadMortalityTables
But that's where the math would lose me, frankly.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree totally. This is exactly what I'm experiencing with the specific player. I'd rather hold than sell for pennies and nobody wants him at reasonable or current consensus value. I don't think I said anything different and would admit that calcs are limited in that way. So isn't Hindery's chart, which functions as a calc, really. It assigns a value to a guy.
Anyway, by introducing market value, I was merely talking about calcs that specifically are measuring market value, like KeepTradeCut. But the value they give still is susceptible to your point about what the actual market is.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hindery is interesting because it is based purely on production forecasting. I like that about it. I absolutely disagree with many of his calls but I like the approach.
I should have taken the Claypool for Zeke off I got in August.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
No, it’s appreciated. Always love learning from you guys. Nice to talk about this stuff. I get blank looks in real life.
rockaction
Footballguy
I tried for that. No response. I'd have taken Claypool and Samuel for Zeke back around Sept./Oct. when Zeke was going well.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I struggle in Dynasty knowing when to go into full blown rebuild mode. Not faulting your decision making here AT ALL, because at this level it's all just guesswork, but from my perspective, you've moved your possible win zone out by 3+ years. I say that because you've gone from fairly polished QB, WR, TE and YOUNG RBs to more raw (and possibly talented) at QB, WR and TE at the same time hurting your RB room. The rookies and youngsters you traded (Burrow, Godwin, Dionte, Gesicki, Carter, Stevenson) seemed like the makings of a solid core. What was the rationale for making this set of moves? I do like what you've done with the WR corps, but I wonder if you could have bolstered that roster without a complete rebuild? Help me learn here, as I'm still trying to figure out when to cut bait on my own team and go full rebuild.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Team A got
Saquon Barkley
2022 8th round
Team B got:
2022 1.7 rookie
2022 2.5 rookie
2023 rookie 2nd rounder
Saquon Barkley
2022 8th round
Team B got:
2022 1.7 rookie
2022 2.5 rookie
2023 rookie 2nd rounder
ghostguy123
Footballguy
floods
Footballguy
KTC also has incredibly high recency bias. I've seen, as you probably have as well, players have wild value swings week to week. Hindery is probably more conservative because his name is on the line as compared to anonymous users shooting from the hip with nothing at stake on KTC.
Yes there definitely some overreactions to recent games on there, but that's okay. Good to know your source material's strengths and weaknesses.
Marauder
Footballguy
Regarding trade value charts we can find faults with all of them. I'd tell anyone if you sent me over the trade value chart you think is perfect and tell me you'll accept any trade offer I propose that has you winning the trade I guarantee you'll have a winning trade offer coming your way shortly.
They are just a guide and I personally don't care about winning them, I just try and use them to help craft strong or non-insulting initial offers.
It would be accurate for me to say I put absolutely zero stock in using them as a basis for accepting a trade.
They are just a guide and I personally don't care about winning them, I just try and use them to help craft strong or non-insulting initial offers.
It would be accurate for me to say I put absolutely zero stock in using them as a basis for accepting a trade.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Completely agree with this.
I’ve had league-mates come at me with lowball offers on talented by aging players (the kind that trade calcs often devalue) and chastising me when I’m “being unreasonable” for wanting more for them.
Ok pal, you want my player to help you win a ‘ship *this year* but you don’t want to pay me anything because his value after this year is low? Riiiiiiight.
To me this is the flaw with trade calculators.
That said, I thought Dynasty Dominator had the values pretty spot on when I ran the Smith for Pollard/Claypool deal through it. Neither worth smith straight up (fairly close though) but both = a modest overpay.
At least it jibed with what I saw as the values & cost of the upgrade to Smith.
but I don’t think any of these tools are intended to be a silo. Take from each what you can, use multiple tools, check multiple valuations, and use your own gut.
More than a few times I’ve followed trade calcs & value charts to try to acquire a player using what I thought was an overpay, only to learn that the owner valued them much more. And almost every time it saved me from making a terrible mistake. Juju, & Zeke are both examples. I thought each would have a bounce back, be worth more than what I was offering (and I offered quite a bit for Zeke) - both those owners are now going down with those ships. The players are still somewhat valuable, but IMO they will never fetch close to what I was offering a couple years ago.
Value is always in the eye of the beholder, so I try to find every opinion I can (including posting proposals here at FBG for feedback) to see what the consensus is. And even then sometimes I just go with my gut when it comes time to pull the trigger.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
these are 2 excellent points.
1. Some of the best trades i’ve made are ones I “lost” on the calcs. And since my trade partners often use the same calcs, & one in particular is obsessed with never “losing” a deal, I use that to my advantage to send proposals that he wins. It’s a really helpful strategy. Perception becomes reality, so finding the spot where I disagree with the perception of “losing” to get the player I want gets it done.
2. I never want to kill a deal with an opening salvo. I never want to lowball someone.
battlestar
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
At that cost it’s a great deal. And I have to believe whatever QB PIT rolls out next year will be leaning on the TE.
