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2019 NBA Playoffs Thread: Toronto Raptors win NBA title #1.33


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42 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Quibble: Wouldn't the Knicks trainers want to hold KD out for game 5?

I'm staying out of the rest of this. :shrug:

But that might imply the Knicks were smart about basketball decisions.

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1 hour ago, thecatch said:

Listening to the Woj/Marks pod today, I think it’s nuts they are treating the Raptors winning as a foregone conclusion. If I were a betting man I’d probably load up on the Warriors in game 5. 

Raps are favoured by 4 tonight.  Load up if you believe in GSW winning.

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55 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Quibble: Wouldn't the Knicks trainers want to hold KD out for game 5?

I'm staying out of the rest of this. :shrug:

The implication is that he’s already a member of the Knicks. Go back to reading Garfield. 

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1 minute ago, Capella said:

The implication is that he’s already a member of the Knicks. Go back to reading Garfield. 

I think his beef was that the Knicks should NOT want him to be cleared and play tonight (and risk re injury)

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

I think his beef was that the Knicks should NOT want him to be cleared and play tonight (and risk re injury)

I get it but uhhhhhh I’m just trying to make some jokes here. This isn’t a Ken Burns special. 

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2 hours ago, thecatch said:

Listening to the Woj/Marks pod today, I think it’s nuts they are treating the Raptors winning as a foregone conclusion. If I were a betting man I’d probably load up on the Warriors in game 5. 

I've been thinking about the same, but OTOH that seems like the square play? Durant is obviously going to play tonight, but it seems like people/square bettors are too eager to assume that someone who is playing will immediately be 100%. I'm skeptical in this situation, where he basically has to play for a number of reasons.

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The Raptors need to close it out tonight.  Let the Warriors win game 5 and how many think they'd win in the Oracle's last game after losing at home?  By game 7 it would be an all-out media frenzy putting an extreme amount of pressure on Nick Nurse & company.

Toronto should go all out tonight like it's a game 7.  Player minutes to their max, shorten of rotations as much as possible, call time-outs early to stop runs, etc.

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12 minutes ago, trader jake said:

The Raptors need to close it out tonight.  Let the Warriors win game 5 and how many think they'd win in the Oracle's last game after losing at home?  By game 7 it would be an all-out media frenzy putting an extreme amount of pressure on Nick Nurse & company.

Toronto should go all out tonight like it's a game 7.  Player minutes to their max, shorten of rotations as much as possible, call time-outs early to stop runs, etc.

Agree.  If this thing isn't over tonight, it's coming back to Toronto for a game 7.

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18 minutes ago, trader jake said:

The Raptors need to close it out tonight.  Let the Warriors win game 5 and how many think they'd win in the Oracle's last game after losing at home?  By game 7 it would be an all-out media frenzy putting an extreme amount of pressure on Nick Nurse & company.

Toronto should go all out tonight like it's a game 7.  Player minutes to their max, shorten of rotations as much as possible, call time-outs early to stop runs, etc.

Agree, but if I’m the Raptors I’m a little more worried about allowing Durant getting his legs back and getting back in rhythm over the course of the rest of the series than I am the other concerns.  Perhaps I’m underrating the Raptors, but if the Warriors are getting 80%+ Durant back for the rest of the series, I still like their chances. 

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23 minutes ago, trader jake said:

The Raptors need to close it out tonight.  Let the Warriors win game 5 and how many think they'd win in the Oracle's last game after losing at home?  By game 7 it would be an all-out media frenzy putting an extreme amount of pressure on Nick Nurse & company.

Toronto should go all out tonight like it's a game 7.  Player minutes to their max, shorten of rotations as much as possible, call time-outs early to stop runs, etc.

I'm not going to make any more stupid predictions, but I don't see Toronto getting rattled.  At least they haven't been rattled by anything in these playoffs so far.

They've approached the entire postseason the same way and they have strategically built up to this all season.  I was even impressed by how many different people (Kawhi, Nurse, Ujiri, Lowry) all saying the same thing after beating Milwaukee, "we aren't done yet, our goal is to win a championship."

Kawhi has been here and knows what to do.  Ibaka as well.  Lowry and Gasol are very experienced vets and are really just role players at this point.  The only key players with little to no experience in the playoffs are Siakim and VanVleet.  Nurse may not have the experience, but he has everyone convinced he knows what to do (though I expect his insides are running 100 mph at this point).

Don't panic, play your game, test Durant, abuse Cousins, wear down Curry and hope Klay doesn't beat you....and when in doubt, just give Kawhi the ball and get the heck out of the way.

Edited by Jayrod
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17 minutes ago, trader jake said:

The Raptors need to close it out tonight.  Let the Warriors win game 5 and how many think they'd win in the Oracle's last game after losing at home?  By game 7 it would be an all-out media frenzy putting an extreme amount of pressure on Nick Nurse & company.

Toronto should go all out tonight like it's a game 7.  Player minutes to their max, shorten of rotations as much as possible, call time-outs early to stop runs, etc.

Sure, but there's two rest days before each of the potential remaining games. No reason not to do this anyway. And if they put too much on this one game they risk a letdown/panic if they lose. But I agree with the larger point that this is their best chance. 

Just a massive game tonight. Biggest NBA game since Game 7 of the 2016 Finals, which was IMO the the biggest game in league history. Can't wait.

 

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1 minute ago, Northern Voice said:

@sreekyshooter

Kinda wild that this is the fifth straight year that the Warriors have had to battle the calves in the Finals

:lol:

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36 minutes ago, Deamon said:
38 minutes ago, Good Posting Judge said:

Nope, its 1.5 fyi.

It was 4 late last night, I hadn't checked after GS's walk-through but looks like yes it has moved down to 2.  (1.5 on some sites)

538 has Raptors as a 2 point favorite tonight.

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1 minute ago, bananafish said:

I love how Golden State set this up perfectly to erase the narrative from 2016. It's masterful, really. 

:no:

Blown 3-1 leads are rare because the leading team usually has a lot more talent, which is how they got the 3-1 lead in the first place. This is ... not that.  Warriors are currently +325 with Durant returning; IIRC the Cavs were up closer to the +1000 range after falling behind 3-1.

Sorry, GB, but that one is here to stay. Another small price to pay for your NBA team having Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in their primes.

 

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Sorry, I just don't see how a Durant that hasn't played in a month and has only had about a 1/2 of a practice under his belt, suddenly comes in and makes enough of a difference against the Raptors at home.  Tell me why I'm crazy?

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1 minute ago, Jayrod said:

Sorry, I just don't see how a Durant that hasn't played in a month and has only had about a 1/2 of a practice under his belt, suddenly comes in and makes enough of a difference against the Raptors at home.  Tell me why I'm crazy?

This is the key, I think- he really doesn't have to make that much of a difference.  I think most people would say that even without Durant the Warriors would be slight favorites on a neutral floor against these Raptors.

That's what the lines have said, anyway.  Warriors were heavier favorites in Games 3 and 4 than the Raptors were in Games 1 and 2, all of which were Durant-less games. So he doesn't have to make that much of a difference to tip the scales.

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43 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

This guy is really growing on me.  Seriously hilarious stuff.  I hope he is getting paid for this somehow.  I watched his Avengers: Endgame video and he had my cracking up.

YouTubers get ad revenue based on how many views they get so long as their videos aren't claimed by a 3rd party. They also utilize Patreon to have viewers pay them directly to show that they enjoy their content. Kind of like a digital tip jar.

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Just now, TobiasFunke said:

This is the key, I think- he really doesn't have to make that much of a difference.  I think most people would say that even without Durant the Warriors would be slight favorites on a neutral floor against these Raptors.

That's what the lines have said, anyway.  Warriors were heavier favorites in Games 3 and 4 than the Raptors were in Games 1 and 2, all of which were Durant-less games. So he doesn't have to make that much of a difference to tip the scales.

But the Raptors won both of those games.  I think it is time the lines adjust to the reality, that this Raptors team is better than the regular season suggested.  I know I was sleeping on them, but for 3.5 games now, they have controlled the Warriors.  I don't think a hobbled Durant is enough.  Any shot he takes is a shot Klay or Curry don't get.  Any defensive assignment he has could be less than a healthier Iggy/Livingston/Bell would do.

If he isn't sharp, stepping in against a fine-tuned Raptors squad playing at their peak will go bad quickly.  Look at what has happened to Cousins.  He is a shell of himself and they can't put him out on the floor right now because he becomes a turnstile.

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1 minute ago, Jayrod said:

But the Raptors won both of those games.  I think it is time the lines adjust to the reality, that this Raptors team is better than the regular season suggested.  I know I was sleeping on them, but for 3.5 games now, they have controlled the Warriors.  I don't think a hobbled Durant is enough.  Any shot he takes is a shot Klay or Curry don't get.  Any defensive assignment he has could be less than a healthier Iggy/Livingston/Bell would do.

Reading through this thread and chiming in from the sidelines ... I almost can't tell if the NBA championship is decided by sports-book linesetters or by the actual games played on the court.

A betting line is a prediction of a future reality -- but not actually a concrete measure of a current reality, is it not? Some talk seems to indicate that getting the betting line in your team's favor is the victory -- hey, win or lose ... you can point to the lines and say "But my team is better. Oddsmakers just know."

Yelling "Scoreboard!" is for ... um ... losers? For backers of inferior teams? Somehow?

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3 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

But the Raptors won both of those games.  I think it is time the lines adjust to the reality, that this Raptors team is better than the regular season suggested.  I know I was sleeping on them, but for 3.5 games now, they have controlled the Warriors.  I don't think a hobbled Durant is enough.  Any shot he takes is a shot Klay or Curry don't get.  Any defensive assignment he has could be less than a healthier Iggy/Livingston/Bell would do.

If he isn't sharp, stepping in against a fine-tuned Raptors squad playing at their peak will go bad quickly.  Look at what has happened to Cousins.  He is a shell of himself and they can't put him out on the floor right now because he becomes a turnstile.

They did, a little bit.  Raptors opened -4ish for Game 5 before the Durant news I think, which is fairly close to what the Warriors were getting in Oakland. So I think we'd gotten to the point where people considered the Raptors to be roughly equal to the Durant-less Warriors, or maybe slightly better since those lines built in some possibility that Durant would return.

I think you're right to be skeptical of the massive shift everyone seems to be expecting with KD's return, by the way. I said something similar a couple hours ago here about how generally people assume a returning player is close to 100% and we have no reason to think that's true with KD, especially since he basically had to play in this game. If he's anything close to his true self it's obviously a problem, but there is at least a semi-decent chance he won't be, and I haven't heard much talk about that possibility.

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40 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Sorry, I just don't see how a Durant that hasn't played in a month and has only had about a 1/2 of a practice under his belt, suddenly comes in and makes enough of a difference against the Raptors at home.  Tell me why I'm crazy?

TOR has shown in past years to not be mentally up to the stage they are on.  Now, they've gotten rid of the coach during those lapses (and DD who never helped matters), they didn't have to face Lebron, and Kahwi plus Gasol brings a massive stabilizing force to the court....but it still remains to be seen if they can close out a team like GS.  I'm not putting Milw in that conversation.  Durant just being on the court, with Steph/Klay getting hot, could be a big issue for the old guard Raps.

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42 minutes ago, Jayrod said:

Sorry, I just don't see how a Durant that hasn't played in a month and has only had about a 1/2 of a practice under his belt, suddenly comes in and makes enough of a difference against the Raptors at home.  Tell me why I'm crazy?

You are not crazy. Lots of teams have good players coming back from injury that don't make an impact their first game back. 

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45 minutes ago, Leroy Hoard said:

You are not crazy. Lots of teams have good players coming back from injury that don't make an impact their first game back. 

Comparing Kevin Durant to "lots of teams have good players" is really weird 

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1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Reading through this thread and chiming in from the sidelines ... I almost can't tell if the NBA championship is decided by sports-book linesetters or by the actual games played on the court.

A betting line is a prediction of a future reality -- but not actually a concrete measure of a current reality, is it not? Some talk seems to indicate that getting the betting line in your team's favor is the victory -- hey, win or lose ... you can point to the lines and say "But my team is better. Oddsmakers just know."

Yelling "Scoreboard!" is for ... um ... losers? For backers of inferior teams? Somehow?

I yell "Odds, bro!" at people whenever my team is favored.

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17 minutes ago, encaitar said:

The crowd belting is out is money.  Wish our crowds would do the same with the US anthem.

Those types of things are often frowned upon in the U.S. these days.

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