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Rock Action's Newbie IDP Thread


rockaction

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My Zealots approach has been:

  • DL: Load up on DEs, never use a DT.  Sometimes I convince myself it's okay to roster a DT, but he's always projected 4th every week and I never end up starting him.  Some DE who will have worse season-end numbers has a better matchup every week.
  • LB: 3-down off-ball LBs, shading SLBs.  I ignore 3-4 OLBs unless I think they might get swapped to DE.
  • DB: All SS.  I don't think I've had a CB since Peanut Tillman retired.  I occasionally have a FS on my roster (usually due to a mistake since safety alignments are really tough to sort out).  Ideally, get a SS who plays nickel LB.

It cuts down on what I need to know... I don't ever think about DTs or CBs.

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2 hours ago, Tick said:

My Zealots approach has been:

  • DL: Load up on DEs, never use a DT.  Sometimes I convince myself it's okay to roster a DT, but he's always projected 4th every week and I never end up starting him.  Some DE who will have worse season-end numbers has a better matchup every week.
  • LB: 3-down off-ball LBs, shading SLBs.  I ignore 3-4 OLBs unless I think they might get swapped to DE.
  • DB: All SS.  I don't think I've had a CB since Peanut Tillman retired.  I occasionally have a FS on my roster (usually due to a mistake since safety alignments are really tough to sort out).  Ideally, get a SS who plays nickel LB.

It cuts down on what I need to know... I don't ever think about DTs or CBs.

This is exactly what I'd started doing. Thanks for the confirmation. 

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This has all been a great help. I'm starting to concentrate on doing mocks that include defensive players. I don't like my end results as much because I'm disposed to want to improve on offense, but it'll show up in the points and roster if I can get value where I'm looking. Thanks, guys. 

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Potentially useful IDP's seem to be falling further than I thought they would. Scoring systems significantly impact Chase Young's value, but I would not consider a LB under any circumstances until at least late round 2. As long as you're not picky you'll be happy with the LB's available rounds 3 and 4 - and it appears beyond too. Not seeing value in safety nor the other DE's before round 4 as well. 

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16 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Potentially useful IDP's seem to be falling further than I thought they would. Scoring systems significantly impact Chase Young's value, but I would not consider a LB under any circumstances until at least late round 2. As long as you're not picky you'll be happy with the LB's available rounds 3 and 4 - and it appears beyond too. Not seeing value in safety nor the other DE's before round 4 as well. 

Thanks. That helps a lot. I've been doing a lot of rookie mocks at CBS FantasyPros and they have some of the guys in their database, so I've been slotting them in according to the charts and lists posted as well as the thoughts of the people in the IDP Forum (your list helped, though I run DL and not DT and DE) and the thoughts of IDP Guys. It's weird. They mock Simmons at about 23 and Young at about 25, with Queen being around 24 or so. So this sounds all about right. I'm really hoping to trade out of 1.01 and into a lower first round pick that gives me extra picks in the second. It seems to be a deep offensive draft, apparently, and it looks it by highlights and by all accounts. So that's where I'm at. I might ideally go for a rebuild and only take one defensive guy earlier and let the vets and offense carry the slack until the next year. I want to stay competitive for the sake of sportsmanship and integrity while at the same time setting myself up for the two-three year window everyone seems to concentrate on. I have to say that I really like Patrick Queen's highlights. He's intriguing, as are Simmons and Gay and Murray, in that order. But that's about it. I'll talk more about it after our slow draft that begins soon when the draft is over. I also might solicit advice during the draft, too, as our picks run on a twenty-four timer.

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Thanks. That helps a lot. I've been doing a lot of rookie mocks at CBS FantasyPros and they have some of the guys in their database, so I've been slotting them in according to the charts and lists posted as well as the thoughts of the people in the IDP Forum (your list helped, though I run DL and not DT and DE) and the thoughts of IDP Guys. It's weird. They mock Simmons at about 23 and Young at about 25, with Queen being around 24 or so. So this sounds all about right. I'm really hoping to trade out of 1.01 and into a lower first round pick that gives me extra picks in the second. It seems to be a deep offensive draft, apparently, and it looks it by highlights and by all accounts. So that's where I'm at. I might ideally go for a rebuild and only take one defensive guy earlier and let the vets and offense carry the slack until the next year. I want to stay competitive for the sake of sportsmanship and integrity while at the same time setting myself up for the two-three year window everyone seems to concentrate on. I have to say that I really like Patrick Queen's highlights. He's intriguing, as are Simmons and Gay and Murray, in that order. But that's about it. I'll talk more about it after our slow draft that begins soon when the draft is over. I also might solicit advice during the draft, too, as our picks run on a twenty-four timer.

Each IDP draft will flow differently.  Much of which depends on your individual league mates and scoring system.  But knowing other owners in your league and how they draft is extremely important.  Do you have access to previous year's drafts?  I would review those and see when and who starts taking IDP's.  That will be a much bigger benefit than just reviewing random mock drafts.

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Just now, Gally said:

Each IDP draft will flow differently.  Much of which depends on your individual league mates and scoring system.  But knowing other owners in your league and how they draft is extremely important.  Do you have access to previous year's drafts?  I would review those and see when and who starts taking IDP's.  That will be a much bigger benefit than just reviewing random mock drafts.

I do have access to that. They went later last year than I expected. You can actually really tell who spent draft capital on their guys by the rosters, and the best teams are the savviest with their defensive guys. Thanks. I'll look more into it. I'm not sure about turnover in ownership, so I don't know what tendencies I can discern, but that's a good place to start. 

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2 hours ago, Tick said:

If you haven't seen it before, http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_board.htm and http://dev.nflprophet.com/zf_chart.htm are incredible summaries of last season's Zealots drafts.  I have to think it will flip over to tracking this year's drafts soon, so take a look now for last year's info, then check back for this year's as it develops.

Wow. That's really interesting. That's a lot of data there.

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1 minute ago, rockaction said:

That is. So huge. Where did you find that or know about it from? That's crazy.

I can't even remember - some Zealot does it and posted about it in the Zealots forum a few years back.  It's great stuff.

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12 minutes ago, Tick said:

I can't even remember - some Zealot does it and posted about it in the Zealots forum a few years back.  It's great stuff.

Yeah, that helps a ton. I have been mocking on FantasyPros' rookies only interface and the values here are quite different. Willie Gay's is radically different from what DLF told me today. Here it's around thirty, there it was forty-seven or so. 

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Thanks, Tick. I know my positioning and spots in the draft; this will help immensely. Traded down today and picked up two extra picks to play with for IDP purposes, so this comes in really useful. I've got a heavy strategy this year that should be interesting. But very much on the down low and very very hush hush (as Danny DeVito would say in L.A. Confidential).

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Moving this here to discuss.  

2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Ah, okay. Don't know what to say then.  First round sounds right for both he and Chase Young, and I wasn't being conentious; but his ADP is at 18.98 for 12-team, IDP leagues at MFL. Perhaps yours is savvier than average. 

I find that MFL ADP is a total ####show this time of year. I don't think it handles a low number of drafts well so the ADP is all over the place. I have seen years where the IDP players weren't even in the top 50 by ADP when drafting in the first 1-4 weeks post-draft. Right now I am seeing the mid-to-late IDPs way up on the list once the clear round 1-3 talent is gone. 

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10 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Moving this here to discuss.  

I find that MFL ADP is a total ####show this time of year. I don't think it handles a low number of drafts well so the ADP is all over the place. I have seen years where the IDP players weren't even in the top 50 by ADP when drafting in the first 1-4 weeks post-draft. Right now I am seeing the mid-to-late IDPs way up on the list once the clear round 1-3 talent is gone. 

Nice. Thanks. I was also going off of the ADPs from Zealots that are in the links Tick provided above. Like I said, I'm not trying to be contentious, just trying to suss out where I can expect these guys to go. I'm right in the middle of a slow draft right now and have a strategy planned with the ADPs in mind. My next picks are in four picks, then after two, then after two again. (13, 16, 19).

Is using the ADP as a guide a bad idea?

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24 minutes ago, Flying Elvis said:

Moving this here to discuss.  

I find that MFL ADP is a total ####show this time of year. I don't think it handles a low number of drafts well so the ADP is all over the place. I have seen years where the IDP players weren't even in the top 50 by ADP when drafting in the first 1-4 weeks post-draft. Right now I am seeing the mid-to-late IDPs way up on the list once the clear round 1-3 talent is gone. 

:goodposting:

There are many different iterations of IDP. Some deep, some not. I suspect those not's are skewing ADP. I don't know, it's just my first thought, because I've never looked at MFL IDP ADP. Not sure if this will help, but here's how mine went (didn't include anyone only drafted in 1 leeg):

Patrick Queen (7)- 8, 8, 6

Isaiah Simmons (10)- 11, 12, 7

Chase Young (16)- 9, 19, 21 (me)

Kenneth Murray (22)- 22, 25, 19

Willie Gay (32)- 38, 28, 29

Logan Wilson (33)- 35, 34, 30

Malik Harrison (38)- 41 (me), 38, 33 (me)

Jordyn Brooks (40)- 30, 41, 48

Antoine Winfield (43)- 25, 64, 39

Xavier McKinney (44)- 44, 48, 40

Zach Baun (44)- 46, 50, 36

K'lavon Chaisson (46)- 37, 49, 53

Grant Delpit (51)- 33, 52, 69

Jeremy Chinn (53)- 45, 66, 49

Kyle Dugger (61)- 60, 68, 55

Yetur Gross-Matos (65)- 64 (me), 58, 73

Akeem Davis-Gaither (65)- 75, 69, 50

Jacob Phillips (68)- 65, 67 (me), 72

Julian Okwara (68)- 66, 80, 57

AJ Epenesa (68)- 68, 70, 65

Troy Dye (68)- 69 (me), 82, 54

Davion Taylor (73)- 76 (me), 72, 71

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Nice. Thanks. I was also going off of the ADPs from Zealots that are in the links Tick provided above. Like I said, I'm not trying to be contentious, just trying to suss out where I can expect these guys to go. I'm right in the middle of a slow draft right now and have a strategy planned with the ADPs in mind. My next picks are in four picks, then after two, then after two again. (13, 16, 19).

Is using the ADP as a guide a bad idea?

No, it's not a bad idea, just put more stock in outside sources rankings. I think it's simply the lack of data, especially for rookie only drafts. If you go to the MFL tools/ADP/2020 https://api.myfantasyleague.com/2020/reports?R=ADP and switch the "draft type" to Rookie-Only Drafts it still spits out CMC as the top dog. It just doesn't have the data needed to be accurate/reliable this early in the process. My assumption is that it relies more on ranking and/or full startup drafts, making it less reliable for true rookie-only ADP.

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1 minute ago, Flying Elvis said:

No, it's not a bad idea, just put more stock in outside sources rankings. I think it's simply the lack of data, especially for rookie only drafts. If you go to the MFL tools/ADP/2020 https://api.myfantasyleague.com/2020/reports?R=ADP and switch the "draft type" to Rookie-Only Drafts it still spits out CMC as the top dog. It just doesn't have the data needed to be accurate/reliable this early in the process. My assumption is that it relies more on ranking and/or full startup drafts, making it less reliable for true rookie-only ADP.

Yeah, I've seen that. It's a disaster. What I was using wasn't MFL's interface. I was using Dynasty League Football's data culled from them at the end of the day. I wrote this over in the over thread back over to MAC_32. His averages were all in line with MFL except for the two first-round backers. So I'll just have to accept that they're going in the first. So far, we're on pick nine in our deeper league. No backers yet. I'm waiting with bated breath because I thought I could snag one mid-second. We'll see.

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6 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Yeah, I've seen that. It's a disaster. What I was using wasn't MFL's interface. I was using Dynasty League Football's data culled from them at the end of the day. I wrote this over in the over thread back over to MAC_32. His averages were all in line with MFL except for the two first-round backers. So I'll just have to accept that they're going in the first. So far, we're on pick nine in our deeper league. No backers yet. I'm waiting with bated breath because I thought I could snag one mid-second. We'll see.

Just my 2 cents - neither of them are considerations anywhere near where they went in my leagues. The well on offensive starters dries up quickly late round 2/early round 3, just about the time LB's start falling off the board again. The difference is those IDP's are likely starters, unlike the offensive players going in the same neighborhood. They're just shots. That and I think this year's offensive round 2 is the best one we've seen in years.

So, draft offense early - then when your likely starters are gone flip the switch to IDP. I think you'll net more total starters with this approach. The only IDP I'll consider in the top 25 is Chase Young and that's format/team specific. I am a little disappointed I didn't get Logan Wilson nor Willie Gay anywhere (just missed!) but I'm a lot higher on Malik Harrison than it seems most, so he was a fine consolation prize. 

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7 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Just my 2 cents - neither of them are considerations anywhere near where they went in my leagues. The well on offensive starters dries up quickly late round 2/early round 3, just about the time LB's start falling off the board again. The difference is those IDP's are likely starters, unlike the offensive players going in the same neighborhood. They're just shots. That and I think this year's offensive round 2 is the best one we've seen in years.

So, draft offense early - then when your likely starters are gone flip the switch to IDP. I think you'll net more total starters with this approach. The only IDP I'll consider in the top 25 is Chase Young and that's format/team specific. I am a little disappointed I didn't get Logan Wilson nor Willie Gay anywhere (just missed!) but I'm a lot higher on Malik Harrison than it seems most, so he was a fine consolation prize. 

Really to not pay as much attention, huh? Okay. I'll take your word. I'll be up front and hope nobody from my league is reading this. I was going to take Chase Young at 13. I'm real thin on the line and linebacker, so I was going to follow that up with Queen at 19. That's if they fell to me, and why I was so interested in your assertion regarding Jene's board. But if holding off yields about the same net result in points for backers, I've got a good idea of who and when to target later. Thanks, MAC_32. You've conveniently let me ignore the defense. :)

Oh, and I think the offense goes three rounds deep this year even. It's deep.

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13 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Really to not pay as much attention, huh? Okay. I'll take your word. I'll be up front and hope nobody from my league is reading this. I was going to take Chase Young at 13. I'm real thin on the line and linebacker, so I was going to follow that up with Queen at 19. That's if they fell to me, and why I was so interested in your assertion regarding Jene's board. But if holding off yields about the same net result in points for backers, I've got a good idea of who and when to target later. Thanks, MAC_32. You've conveniently let me ignore the defense. :)

Oh, and I think the offense goes three rounds deep this year even. It's deep.

Re the bolded - he's absolutely in play at 13. It just depends league-to-league. I mentioned he went 9 in one league - I would have picked him at 12. In the other two I had pick 18 in each - and passed both times. Now in one it was a calculated risk - I also had pick 21 and wanted him there. I didn't pick him because I was betting on those in between not picking him. Thankfully I was right. But in the other I never thought about him. So I can't emphasize this enough - he is league specific.

Regarding the under lined, this is where my approach veers from many, especially when it comes to IDP. It's not about maximizing total points. It's about maximizing value. The replacement value on IDP's is generally lower than on offense. So Queen could be LB11 and Higgins WR19, but picking Higgins is still the right move. Because if you need to go dumpster diving at WR you're looking at the Danny Amendola's of the game whereas at LB even in the deepest of league's a guy like Nick Kwiatkowski (just one example) was available last year. He was big down the stretch last year (LB16 week 10-on) and now finds himself in a 3 down role. This happens all the time in IDP. It's a rarity on the other side of the ball.

Edited by MAC_32
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8 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Re the bolded - he's absolutely in play at 13. It just depends league-to-league. I mentioned he went 9 in one league - I would have picked him at 12. In the other two I had pick 18 in each - and passed both times. Now in one it was a calculated risk - I also had pick 21 and wanted him there. I didn't pick him because I was betting on those in between not picking him. Thankfully I was right. But in the other I never thought about him. So I can't emphasize this enough - he is league specific.

Regarding the under lined, this is where my approach veers from many, especially when it comes to IDP. It's not about maximizing total points. It's about maximizing value. The replacement value on IDP's is generally lower than on offense. So Queen could be LB11 and Higgins WR19, but picking Higgins is still the right move. Because if you need to go dumpster diving at WR you're looking at the Danny Amendola's of the game whereas at LB even in the deepest of league's a guy like Nick Kwiatkowski (just one example) was available last year. He was big down the stretch last year (LB16 week 10-on) and now finds himself in a 3 down role. This happens all the time in IDP. It's a rarity on the other side of the ball.

Gotcha. You just explained in words what I've intuited from reading. What you describe is exactly how I'm trying to approach it, but without a ton of math. I did take an Excel sheet and went over point totals the past two years and compared them inter and intra-position. I'm not sure where that led, but in looking at the roster scores, you could see I was glaringly behind. I think you have to look at it almost like replacement value in analytical sports statistics. Think of the spots in terms of WAR, or points above replacement, really. I think I get that. But I need guys who are even replacement level. The question is how to quantify where and when. Then it's discipline and math, really. Regardless, thanks for the time.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Gotcha. You just explained in words what I've intuited from reading. What you describe is exactly how I'm trying to approach it, but without a ton of math. I did take an Excel sheet and went over point totals the past two years and compared them inter and intra-position. I'm not sure where that led, but in looking at the roster scores, you could see I was glaringly behind. I think you have to look at it almost like replacement value in analytical sports statistics. Think of the spots in terms of WAR, or points above replacement, really. I think I get that. But I need guys who are even replacement level. The question is how to quantify where and when. Then it's discipline and math, really. Regardless, thanks for the time.

I don't apply math to it either. I'm sure you could, but I'm not willing to put the work in to quantify anything. I just recall anecdotal examples every year in which I found starters in the May and August dumpsters or on in-season waivers at LB and S. Sure, they appear on offense as well, but you often need to be ahead of the breakout - forecasting a benching in advance or getting lucky with an injury created opportunity. Otherwise you're at the mercy of available free agent $ or waiver priority.

DE's are a different animal. I think I recall you saying it a while ago - the top tier is extremely valuable. But it's very muddy when it comes to everyone else below that top tier. Plus there's the unquantifiable annual reclassification risk. 

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Just now, MAC_32 said:

I don't apply math to it either. I'm sure you could, but I'm not willing to put the work in to quantify anything. I just recall anecdotal examples every year in which I found starters in the May and August dumpsters or on in-season waivers at LB and S. Sure, they appear on offense as well, but you often need to be ahead of the breakout - forecasting a benching in advance or getting lucky with an injury created opportunity. Otherwise you're at the mercy of available free agent $ or waiver priority.

DE's are a different animal. I think I recall you saying it a while ago - the top tier is extremely valuable. But it's very muddy when it comes to everyone else below that top tier. Plus there's the unquantifiable annual reclassification risk. 

Sure. It took me a few years of fantasy football before I was able to spot offensive inefficiencies other people weren't. But once you do, you've got it. I think a lot of it was figuring out volume and coachspeak, which I got good at and could pull the trigger on moves weeks in advance of people who don't hang out on fantasy football websites. Hwarf.

So I need to follow this format (dynasty) and this side of the ball for at least a year or two to figure out even the tip of the iceberg. Looking forward to it, though, as it's already helping me understand the cap and now I'll be concentrating on the other side of the ball. And you recall correctly: I was talking with Hankmoody about the top tier scoring disparity on the DL because I took a genius suggestion to run all the tiers of guys at every position and compare them on a spreadsheet. Sure enough, on the DL, the top three or four were disparate even when compared to the rest of the top twelve. It was striking. But I humbly submit that wasn't my idea to do that. And it's in keeping with the concepts of WAR or PAR because that's what one is doing. Anyway, typing this out helps also. 

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ADP for IDP is very random and never seems to follow any of my leagues.  It was simultaneously makes IDP great and frustrating at the same time.  It rewards those willing to put in the time and effort to know the IDP side of things (great) but is very frustrating at times trying to find valuable/valid data on things like ADP since there isn't a lot of data. 

 

I have found that knowing your league mates is the very best way to gain an advantage in IDP.  Do the research so you know players that aren't name guys yet should perform similar to the name guys.  Then let your other league mates "reach" for the names and you get the value later.  However, in rookie drafts it's almost the opposite for me.  "reaching" for Young late first (I got Bosa 1.10 last year and was very happy with that) to me is better than taking a shot on a not for sure offensive player in that spot.  As I said in an earlier post my goal in a rookie draft is to get fantasy starters for years to come.  I find that is usually best found in IDP name studs late 1st/early 2nd.  I think they are easier to predict as rookies that offensive players.  So for me rookie drafts are opposite yearly drafts in that respect. 

 

In either case knowing your league mate tendencies is important.  If they follow IDP ADP then you know they will let those guys fall a bit and you can plan accordingly.  However, if there are a couple guys not afraid to go IDP early then you need to account for that as well. 

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50 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

Regarding the under lined, this is where my approach veers from many, especially when it comes to IDP. It's not about maximizing total points. It's about maximizing value. The replacement value on IDP's is generally lower than on offense. So Queen could be LB11 and Higgins WR19, but picking Higgins is still the right move. Because if you need to go dumpster diving at WR you're looking at the Danny Amendola's of the game whereas at LB even in the deepest of league's a guy like Nick Kwiatkowski (just one example) was available last year. He was big down the stretch last year (LB16 week 10-on) and now finds himself in a 3 down role. This happens all the time in IDP. It's a rarity on the other side of the ball.

This is a good point. I play in 16 team leagues with balanced IDP scoring. I’ve had late first round rookie picks in past years and took LB’s high (wasn’t liking skill position players left, thought LB’s were more sure things). Look like mistakes in hindsight (Myles Jack, Jarrad Davis). 
 

Meanwhile there are always WW guys available that can be patched in for decent numbers. Guys like David Mayo, Donald Payne for a few games, got Kwiatkowski in a few leagues, Oakland had various guys available on waivers, etc. Even Devondre Campbell was on waivers a few years ago and he was starter level all last season. Meanwhile I was starting WR’s like Taylor Gabriel and Russell Gage because I had no WR depth and WW was picked clean.

I’m going to lean against going late first LB depending on perceived strength of overall rookie class. Premium DE’s will always be in play for me from 1.10 ish to 1.16 just because the scarcity and scoring disparity justify the risk. Got lucky last year with Nick Bosa somewhere around 1.12 (forget exactly). I’m at 1.11 this year and will almost certainly be taking a skill position player (Young may or may not be available here in my leagues).

 

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My 16 tm league just went, #20 Simmons, #21 Young, #22 Queen....I have the next pick and would have taken one of Young or Queen but wasn't going to try and trade up as I'm rebuilding so I'll likely trade back or out of the round ;). 

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I'm now in the dilemma of being next on the clock at thirteen with Young, Mims, and Higgins all still available. So two will at least be there. If Young is there, what are your thoughts about choosing Young over Mims and Higgins or Mims and Higgins over Young? I also hold the sixteen and there's a six percent less chance that Young falls to me there than Mims. Higgins likely wouldn't fall. I now realize we're in total AC territory now, but I'm looking for theoretical reasons why. IOW replacement of the points would be harder to do for a receiver or an edge rusher of that quality, etc. 

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16 minutes ago, Dezbelief said:

Mims would be last on my list of those three.

Reagor is there, too. He's not a favorite of mine. I think Mims (and so Does Matt Waldman and Jene Bramel) is a top-tier guy in this draft. Waldman has him number two overall, Bramel three. So I'm unsure. My real question, though, is one of offensive and defensive value.

This could all be moot. It's a slow draft, and there's a guy up right now. I don't think he'll be picking tonight. He could pick Young and render the choice moot and between receivers, something I'm not really worried about in this thread, though opinions like yours are certainly welcome and mulled over. But I'm more interested in where the combination of value between IDP and offense intersect in these leagues.

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It would be an easy choice for me to take Young.  But I also took Bosa last year at pick 1.10.  Like I said I would rather take the guy I have most confidence in being a fantasy starter for years and for me that is Young.

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51 minutes ago, Gally said:

It would be an easy choice for me to take Young.  But I also took Bosa last year at pick 1.10.  Like I said I would rather take the guy I have most confidence in being a fantasy starter for years and for me that is Young.

I was going to go offense, but picked Young. My whole raison d'etre was defense and to improve upon this guy's with elite talent. I will take Queen at sixteen or nineteen if he's there, too.  And I didn't reach for Young. His ADP was 14.2 and his rank was 15.

eta* Guy after me chose Reagor. I get either Mims or Higgins or Queen or Simmons. I'm leaning offense now, as the ADPs are bearing it out. 

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On 5/1/2020 at 10:09 AM, rockaction said:

Thanks. That helps a lot. I've been doing a lot of rookie mocks at CBS FantasyPros and they have some of the guys in their database, so I've been slotting them in according to the charts and lists posted as well as the thoughts of the people in the IDP Forum (your list helped, though I run DL and not DT and DE) and the thoughts of IDP Guys. It's weird. They mock Simmons at about 23 and Young at about 25, with Queen being around 24 or so. So this sounds all about right. I'm really hoping to trade out of 1.01 and into a lower first round pick that gives me extra picks in the second. It seems to be a deep offensive draft, apparently, and it looks it by highlights and by all accounts. So that's where I'm at. I might ideally go for a rebuild and only take one defensive guy earlier and let the vets and offense carry the slack until the next year. I want to stay competitive for the sake of sportsmanship and integrity while at the same time setting myself up for the two-three year window everyone seems to concentrate on. I have to say that I really like Patrick Queen's highlights. He's intriguing, as are Simmons and Gay and Murray, in that order. But that's about it. I'll talk more about it after our slow draft that begins soon when the draft is over. I also might solicit advice during the draft, too, as our picks run on a twenty-four timer.

You seem to rely a whole lot on calcs, mocks, etc.  I cannot stress enough - IDP drafting is massively league dependent.  I just saw Simmons go 8, Murray 11, Chase 13, Queen 14 in one and Queen 12, Murray 14 (last pick) in another and those are not at all atypical results.  In other years they would have gone even earlier but this is a beefy top of the draft.  Do your league research.  Under My Leagues at the top will pull up  a menu with prior league years, go chart their drafts.

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7 hours ago, rockaction said:

I was going to go offense, but picked Young. My whole raison d'etre was defense and to improve upon this guy's with elite talent. I will take Queen at sixteen or nineteen if he's there, too.  And I didn't reach for Young. His ADP was 14.2 and his rank was 15.

eta* Guy after me chose Reagor. I get either Mims or Higgins or Queen or Simmons. I'm leaning offense now, as the ADPs are bearing it out. 

A good portion of my draft decision is based on when the next pick is and where the tiers drop.  I think Higgins is well above guys he's being drafted around.  I also think Murray will be the LB to have once it's all said and done.  I would probably draft Higgins and keep an eye on opportunities to move up for Murray once those other LB start to go.

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8 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

A good portion of my draft decision is based on when the next pick is and where the tiers drop.  I think Higgins is well above guys he's being drafted around.  I also think Murray will be the LB to have once it's all said and done.  I would probably draft Higgins and keep an eye on opportunities to move up for Murray once those other LB start to go.

Thanks, Hank. I went with Mims. I did not have your counsel when I was on the clock. For what it's worth, Bramel and Sigmund both have Mims the tier above Higgins, whose stock crashed on his poor pro day measurables. Guy's got hands, though. I still may wind up with him or Queen or Edwards next pick. If Higgins is there, I'm either taking him or trading down for an extra pick to be had soon.

I like what you said about Murray. One to grow on for me. I sit right at his ADP with one pick, so I don't think I'll be moving up but might be there.

And I do depend a lot on calcs and ADP. I also do tiers and traditional evaluation. But we have these tools to use! It never instructs my decision, only informs it. So why not? 

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I wasn't intending to be critical, rather to encourage a balance in the process.  Calcs and mocks are theoretical tools based on some pre-determined model of input values.  They cannot accommodate for variables.  Drafts are fluid, living things.  When an owner has a ton of picks, or only has one and gets desperate, or is bound and determined to tank out current season to load up on picks for next - none of these factors can be accounted for in static tools.  They cannot account for league scoring systems or that one raging Carolina homer that just has to have all his team's rookie at any cost. 

And Higgins is a perfect example.  He went above Mims, Aijuk, Pittman, and Raegor in both of my "real" drafts.  Sometimes these guys just get to parroting a narrative that someone put out and it proliferates into the tools but the real drafters out there aren't buying it.  It only takes one to ruins the best laid plans.  If you're one of the guys that didn't buy into it but listened to the tools you'll be disappointed at best and caught offguard at worst.  Those analysts might be right and they might not, but I'd damn sure rather follow my own prep and be wrong than be right about a guy but miss out on him because I listened to some donkey's podcast guaranteeing he was a 3rd round pick.  Nothing worse than watching another owner win a trophy with your cheat sheet as his roster.

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19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

Those analysts might be right and they might not, but I'd damn sure rather follow my own prep and be wrong than be right about a guy but miss out on him because I listened to some donkey's podcast guaranteeing he was a 3rd round pick.  

:goodposting:

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19 minutes ago, Hankmoody said:

I wasn't intending to be critical, rather to encourage a balance in the process.  Calcs and mocks are theoretical tools based on some pre-determined model of input values.  They cannot accommodate for variables.  Drafts are fluid, living things.  When an owner has a ton of picks, or only has one and gets desperate, or is bound and determined to tank out current season to load up on picks for next - none of these factors can be accounted for in static tools.  They cannot account for league scoring systems or that one raging Carolina homer that just has to have all his team's rookie at any cost. 

And Higgins is a perfect example.  He went above Mims, Aijuk, Pittman, and Raegor in both of my "real" drafts.  Sometimes these guys just get to parroting a narrative that someone put out and it proliferates into the tools but the real drafters out there aren't buying it.  It only takes one to ruins the best laid plans.  If you're one of the guys that didn't buy into it but listened to the tools you'll be disappointed at best and caught offguard at worst.  Those analysts might be right and they might not, but I'd damn sure rather follow my own prep and be wrong than be right about a guy but miss out on him because I listened to some donkey's podcast guaranteeing he was a 3rd round pick.  Nothing worse than watching another owner win a trophy with your cheat sheet as his roster.

I totally agree with you. The thing is, this draft is following the Zealot ADP pretty lockstep, so I was indeed treating it as a living thing, however fallaciously it might be to do so. That said, you'll be happy to know I applied your exact "ignore the cheat sheet" logic in reaching for Edwards, who was supposed to be there at my next pick. But I didn't want him off the board. I'm also going to "reach" for another that I feel is massively undervalued at around the 3.06 mark, and I'll feel absolutely fine by it.

Because, really, you're right. But when I talk about calcs and mocks on this board, it's really a way of bringing consensus into an argument rather than solely my opinion into the proceeding. Saying "I like A because I like A" only goes so far. Saying, I like A and it's backed up by this consensus and here's why, then you've made a better argument for yourself. But I'm sure you agree with that, too. It just that you may be getting a skewed view of my decision process because when i present information intending to help or add to the debate, a great place to start is consensus. Then where and why you deviate from it or agree with it becomes the meat of it all.

And it's all good. Don't forget, too, I'm using calcs and mocks because I'm not a savvy vet, hence the thread title of "Newbie." Damn n00bs.

Edited by rockaction
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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

Baun

Thanks, Andy. He's down on the lists I'm looking at, though because he'll take A.J. Klein's position (who I have) and it won't lead to IDP scoring. So color me confused. Any other votes?

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Also should say Yetur Gross-Matos and Adam Trautman are there, as is K'Lvaon Chaisson (but we have no EDGE distinction), and I don't have any viable TEs outside of Gerald Everett and O.J. Howard, who are no longer really viable. I was going to go Thaddeus Moss in the sixth, but other guys might be there at LB, where I really need help, lie Davion Taylor.

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