Let me be clear. I am biased. I am a Bengals fan. I hate Cleveland. I do not just mean the football team either. I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it. I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.Cash placeholder: Mayfield - Henry / Hunt / SEA RB - Jefferson / R. Higgins / Lockett - Waller - NOS
I love Henry this week. I will probably be 100% locked in on him this week, also.Cash placeholder: Mayfield - Henry / Hunt / SEA RB - Jefferson / R. Higgins / Lockett - Waller - NOS
EDIT: for GPP, I like the following games
GB vs. min
TEN vs. cin
SEA vs. sf
CLE vs. lvr
Might have Henry in 100% of my GPP LUs this week as he is in line for another 200 yd / 2+ TD performance against the most porous run DEF in the universe.
Garropolo possibly a sneaky cheap option in Cash this week, too. RBs all banged up, just like SEA, and likely needing to score big points against SEA.
As a Cleveland fan, #### you Heard a really interesting stat on the radio today that is meaningless except in this conversation. Baker has a 110% rating against the Bengals, 83% against the rest of the NFL. Plan accordingly.Let me be clear. I am biased. I am a Bengals fan. I hate Cleveland. I do not just mean the football team either. I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it. I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.
Colin Cowherd said it best, yesterday. Baker is only good when he plays the Bengals. You can Google it for his exact quotes, but he basically raves about Burrow and only gives Baker a tad bit of credit for his performance Sunday.
Go read through the other weekly threads in this subforum. especially weeks 2 through 4. Lots of very detailed discussion and research.As a Cleveland fan, #### you Heard a really interesting stat on the radio today that is meaningless except in this conversation. Baker has a 110% rating against the Bengals, 83% against the rest of the NFL. Plan accordingly.
Just joined Fanduel for first time, have no clue what I'm doing but will start following along here.
So, when I look at the games I want to play, the only viable pivots are Wilson, Rodgers and Cousins. I don't like Tannehill as I think they won't need to throw. Don't like Burrows vs. TEN defense. Don't like Garropolo against an angry SEA defense with his RBs totally trashed. And don't trust Carr to not implode. Cousins might implode, but he's a cheaper possible implosion to Carr.Let me be clear. I am biased. I am a Bengals fan. I hate Cleveland. I do not just mean the football team either. I mean I truly hate the city and everything associated with it. I couldn't even root for Lebron when he was there.
Colin Cowherd said it best, yesterday. Baker is only good when he plays the Bengals. You can Google it for his exact quotes, but he basically raves about Burrow and only gives Baker a tad bit of credit for his performance Sunday.
With all that being said, there is no way I am backing Baker in cash. I actually suggested him last week for GPP (check the week 7 forum), but after losing OBJ and playing with backup TEs. Most defenses, other than the Bengals, which includes an average Raiders defense will make Baker look average (or below) again. I do like Hunt this week, but I am out on Baker.
It's Tua time! Plug him in there instead. I will definitely be using him for one of my GPP lineups and considering him for cash.
I also think stacking the Bengals/Titans game could be a good strategy this week. Tannehill (at $7.5) and Burrow (at $7.6) could both be considered as cash QBs this week, even you were not stacking the game.
I remember starting out with NFL dfs and seeing articles saying for cash you really don't stack because its higher risk, then most of the time I look and it seems like there are a lot of stacks.In a complete about face, I'm going with Wilson in my cash LU. When I have more clarity of the SEA RB situation, I'll fill it out, but for now it's looking like Wilson / SEA RB / Metcalf / Henry / NOS for certain, then I'll flesh out the remainder later...
This just appears to be able to yield a higher floor for my cash games than any other recipe...
I saw an article by one of the FBG’s last week that said even in cash you need to be stacking. It referenced that the ‘old’ cash strategy of diversity puts you at a disadvantage in today’s DFS world. I will find the quote and share it later.KarmaPolice said:I remember starting out with NFL dfs and seeing articles saying for cash you really don't stack because its higher risk, then most of the time I look and it seems like there are a lot of stacks.
It is driving me nuts that I can not find the article! But, I promise there was a recent article that discusses the topic of stacking for cash. It was not the basis of the entire article, but there was at least one paragraph on the topic. I am starting to think it might have been from RG and not FBG. You will have to trust me on it. The basic jest of the paragraph was that you may not need to fully game stack in cash, but you should definitely be stacking and using known positive correlations to build the best cash lineups. The margin of error in cash is very slim and the payout line is often similar to GPP these days, so the once diverse lineup has been pushed to the side for a more stacked lineup even in cash contests. The theory matches the trend I have seen over the last few years. If nothing else, it is good food for thought. Sorry, I could not directly quote the article though.I saw an article by one of the FBG’s last week that said even in cash you need to be stacking. It referenced that the ‘old’ cash strategy of diversity puts you at a disadvantage in today’s DFS world. I will find the quote and share it later.
My first attempts to fit the high priced QBs and their teammates for stacking this week has been a failure.This a tough week for me to figure out. Studs have a lot of good matchups. Do I pay the high prices and try to find some gems in the bargain bin; or do I try to find good choices among the value plays? Right now, I am leaning toward the former. I LOVE Adams and Cook. Henry looks like a good choice. KC has a juicy matchup as well. Not sure how I am going to play this week. Here are some of players I am looking at:
QB -- Burrow, Tannehill, Herbert
RB -- Cook, Henry, Hunt, Taylor,
A wild card I like this week is LeVeon Bell. I expect KC to be up big against the Jets, and I can see Reid allowing Bell to show Gase what he lost.
WR -- Adams, Allen, Theilen/Jefferson, Boyd/Higgins
TE -- Waller, Smith, HBryant
DEF -- KC, NO
I will likely go cheap, but I don't really see a good option on D
I personally like Wilson much better than Baker. I love the process of DFS. We all start with one idea, but as the week goes on. More information is added. New pieces of the puzzle come together. We often finish with something much different and hopefully, better.In a complete about face, I'm going with Wilson in my cash LU. When I have more clarity of the SEA RB situation, I'll fill it out, but for now it's looking like Wilson / SEA RB / Metcalf / Henry / NOS for certain, then I'll flesh out the remainder later...
This just appears to be able to yield a higher floor for my cash games than any other recipe...
Updated Lineup:Current Lineup:
Burrow - Henry/Hunt/Gio - Aiyuk/AJ Green/C Davis - Kittle - Saints
https://www.fanduel.com/entry/51232-239544041?invitedby=fatnate&cnl=mabo&utm_campaign=User Referral&utm_medium=iOS&utm_source=User 3-20&utm_content=LinkI am planning to keep the league like last week's format, unless someone can convince me otherwise.
Format: $5. Main Slate. First 12 people in, play. Need at least 10 people for it to pay out. Winner take all.
I will post the link Thursday morning and reminder Sunday morning.
I have been really successful this year with stacking for cash in FD. Only week I took a hit was last week and got Locketted. I scored 170 points with my cash stack and have salvaged most weeks GPP plays with my cash LUs.It is driving me nuts that I can not find the article! But, I promise there was a recent article that discusses the topic of stacking for cash. It was not the basis of the entire article, but there was at least one paragraph on the topic. I am starting to think it might have been from RG and not FBG. You will have to trust me on it. The basic jest of the paragraph was that you may not need to fully game stack in cash, but you should definitely be stacking and using known positive correlations to build the best cash lineups. The margin of error in cash is very slim and the payout line is often similar to GPP these days, so the once diverse lineup has been pushed to the side for a more stacked lineup even in cash contests. The theory matches the trend I have seen over the last few years. If nothing else, it is good food for thought. Sorry, I could not directly quote the article though.
That passing offense is in utter turmoil. I'd avoid completely until Belichick fixes things. Cam strikes me as a neo-Kordell Stewart: if he loses confidence he's a complete disaster. Seems like he's hit that threshold.Any news on who is going to be playing WR in New England Sunday. J Meyer at $4.5 is intriguing and provides some nice salary relieve versus an average defense. It appears that Harry and Edelman may both sit this week. I know Cam has struggled and looks like wind might be factor, but at that price Meyer does not have to do a lot to payback -- 6 catches for 60 yards gets you 2x value and if he pops a TD, then you are at 3x value.
Friday Updated Lineup:Updated Lineup:
Burrow - Henry/Hunt/Gaskins - Adams/Green/Aiyuk - Henry - Jets
Saturday Update:Friday Updated Lineup:
Burrow - Henry/Hunt/Cook - Green/Aiyuk/Meyer - Henry - Saints
Nice job. Congratulations.Good luck. I’m in. Have some spending money. Took 2nd last week on FD gpp and cashed $2,500. It was a helluva sweat. Scored 226 pts.
Vegas has dropped the totals. For sure. I am still all over the Ten/Cin game. No change. Having trouble fitting Adams and Cook, so that game isn’t a big a play for me. I love Hunt and that hasn’t changed for me. Otherwise, I am not attacking that game heavily.Doing some DK LUS, but not going to start another thread. Mostly just wanted to pick brains about what you guys are doing about the weather games. I have been burned thinking too much about rain/snow in the past, but most of these games are in the Orange or Red because of high winds - Ten/Cinc, Min/GB, LV/Clev. So the only two games above a 50 o/u without that are SF/Seattle, and Indy/Det. Also KC and their huge 34pt team total.
That is one that I am staring at since it is currently calling for sustained 15-20mph winds with gusts to 30+.Vegas has dropped the totals. For sure. I am still all over the Ten/Cin game. No change. Having trouble fitting Adams and Cook, so that game isn’t a big a play for me. I love Hunt and that hasn’t changed for me. Otherwise, I am not attacking that game heavily.
I'm with you on the Balt / Pitt game. I've played a card on the Jackson side. Pitt's secondary is beatable.GPP placeholder:
Ben - Hunt/Gaskin/Henry - Juju/Hollywood/AJG - Kittle - Saints
This might not be my cash lineup, but I have feeling this game goes under-owned, because these are two good defensive teams (but in this era what does that really mean -- seems like good offense wins out more now a days) and it is projected as one of the lower totals this weekend. I think the Steelers can score on anyone and I think they will do it through the air against the Ravens. I believe Lamar's floor is safe, but he will have to get his through the air this week and that has proven to be a problem at times for him. It is early in the week to take a real stand, but here I am! I like the Steeler side of the game for fantasy. I also think the total goes over and they win outright. Book it!
I am using Burrow. No Tannehill, but I expect Tannehill to be solid. I just think Henry dominates for Tenn.KarmaPolice said:That is one that I am staring at since it is currently calling for sustained 15-20mph winds with gusts to 30+.
Do you just change who you focus on - ie a stack like Tannehill/Henry/Smith vs Tannehill/Brown/Davis? But if so, I also feel like Tannehill's ceiling is capped if downfield passing is going to be an issue.
I am definitely looking at some cheaper options.Anyone using some the really cheap options with confidence this week. Such as:
WR: Mims, Bourne, Byrd, Meyer
RB: DeeJay, Coleman, Edwards
TE: Izzy, Everett
Def: Jets
i am considering them all and definitely using the Jets.
I had heard about the weather issues In the shark pool. Because of the weather, I am definitely reducing my exposure to the CLE-LV game and, to a lesser extent, the TEN-CIN game.So, looking at weather for the four highest over/under games today. Hilariously, due to weather, the IND - DET game is now one of the four highest scoring games. The LVR - CLE game looks to be in ATROCIOUS weather: very high winds with rain/snow mix likely. AVOID all but Hunt and Jacobs and MAYBE the two TEs Waller and Bryant.
Used the Weather Underground site for this:
Cincinnati: wind between 20-21 MPH during game time. Not terrible, but not great.
Green Bay: wind between 22-24 MPH during game time. Bad conditions.
Detroit: dome, no issues.
Seattle: 55 degrees, no wind.
So, if high wind is a thing for you, avoid the passing games in CIN, CLE and GB.
I'm going to play only the DET and SEA games.
QB: Rivers & Wilson at 40% exposure, Stafford and Garoppolo at 10% exposure. Stack WR, RB, opposing WR.
RB: Henry, J. Williams, Bernard, Jacobs, CEH, Cook, Hunt, Gordon, Kamara, Gaskins
I am in on Mims.BTW, just a heads up, the FBG builder loves Jakobi Meyers and Denzel Mims this week. Just letting you know you'll get high exposure to them in the builder and might need to edit your LUs. I'm leaving as-is because this week is so bizarre.
I have same lineup but Herbert over Burrow. Curious why you have Burrow instead of Herbert If you like Henry and Allen?I'm in on Mims as well. They are going to need to throw the ball...a lot. Someone has to be on the catching end of it. I am actually using him in a cash line up. I don't feel 100% about it, it is the Jets after all, but I love the salary relief. My current line up is (still tinkering though)...
Burrow, Henry, Hunt, Williams, Allen, Aiyuk, Mims, Cook, Saints
In general, I don't like to stack much in cash game line ups which is pretty much all I play. Not that it can't be successful, but I typically don't play that way. If the stack misses, you pretty much ruin your chances. I think Burrow will need to throw. I think Tennessee is poor against the pass. And I think Burrow has a better set of pass game weapons in Green, Boyd, Higgins, and Bernard. I am a little worried about weather, but I think this should all set up well for Burrow. I like Allen because he is getting a ridiculous amount of targets and is the go to guy. He can have a strong game even if Herbert is mediocre. To be honest, I wish I could find the dollars for Wilson at QB, but I decided to pay up at RB.I have same lineup but Herbert over Burrow. Curious why you have Burrow instead of Herbert If you like Henry and Allen?
Also, I’m new to daily fantasy so appreciate everyone’s insights. Last week was first week doing it and only played a league with 12 friends, but got 2nd thanks to you guys
I have 20 DK LUs in the in the $1 20max. I think 6-8 are KC stacks and 6-8 are SF/Seattle game stacks. I told the RG optimizer to always give me an RB-WR/TE secondary correlation, and I think the most popular were:So, looking at weather for the four highest over/under games today. Hilariously, due to weather, the IND - DET game is now one of the four highest scoring games. The LVR - CLE game looks to be in ATROCIOUS weather: very high winds with rain/snow mix likely. AVOID all but Hunt and Jacobs and MAYBE the two TEs Waller and Bryant.
Used the Weather Underground site for this:
Cincinnati: wind between 20-21 MPH during game time. Not terrible, but not great.
Green Bay: wind between 22-24 MPH during game time. Bad conditions.
Detroit: dome, no issues.
Seattle: 55 degrees, no wind.
So, if high wind is a thing for you, avoid the passing games in CIN, CLE and GB.
I'm going to play only the DET and SEA games.
QB: Rivers & Wilson at 40% exposure, Stafford and Garoppolo at 10% exposure. Stack WR, RB, opposing WR.
RB: Henry, J. Williams, Bernard, Jacobs, CEH, Cook, Hunt, Gordon, Kamara, Gaskin
the problem is SEA RB situation. My gut tells me Carson plays at full strength. SF RB situation dicey too because, though McKinnon labeled as starter, might not do anything and may split even with Hasty. If I was Shanahan, I would split carries between both early and then go hot hand. I would even exposure between both because of this.
EDIT: because of the crazy nature of this week, with weather and injuries, GREAT opportunity to find something off-chalk and win big. I might play a couple weird flyers in the Milly Maker because of it. Maybe a NYJ-KCC game stack, or LAR-MIA game stack.