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ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?


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Caveat: Javonte WIlliams could change this depending on his landing spot.

Anyone else here on this? 

Chase, Pitts and Najee are on their own island in the "top 3" rookies after rnd 1 (and likely period) and then a huge cliff.

Slim Reaper landed in an ok spot in PHI... Waddle's spot stinks due to my disataste for Tua... Toney is in a carousl of WRs,.. Etienne is a "3rd down back" ). don't buy it, but spot still a timeshare probably... Bateman with a guy who I still don't think is a longterm QB (actual QB) in the nfl...

This was somewhat ugly for rookie drafts, imo. You?

Edited by Soulfly3
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  • Soulfly3 changed the title to ROOKIE DYNASTY 21 - Rnd 1 - Top 3 and a cliff?
1 hour ago, Soulfly3 said:

Caveat: Javonte WIlliams could change this depending on his landing spot.

Anyone else here on this? 

Chase, Pitts and Najee are on their own island in the "top 3" rookies after rnd 1 (and likely period) and then a huge cliff.

Slim Reaper landed in an ok spot in PHI... Waddle's spot stinks due to my disataste for Tua... Toney is in a carousl of WRs,.. Etienne is a "3rd down back" ). don't buy it, but spot still a timeshare probably... Bateman with a guy who I still don't think is a longterm QB (actual QB) in the nfl...

This was somewhat ugly for rookie drafts, imo. You?

I agree with this.  If Williams lands in a good spot, it will clear up the early RB rankings somewhat with Williams clearly ahead of Etienne (although I think long term Etienne could still be the best in this class).  You have to sour on Bateman a bit.  The only other wild cards would be if GB or KC take a WR with their next picks.

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A lot will change after today.

But my biggest question so far involving rookie dynasty drafts is how early will the QBs be drafted. Used to be you were reaching if you took the best QBs in the 2nd. Now, I'm wondering if at least two if not three won't be selected before the 2.1.

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1 minute ago, Andy Dufresne said:

A lot will change after today.

But my biggest question so far involving rookie dynasty drafts is how early will the QBs be drafted. Used to be you were reaching if you took the best QBs in the 2nd. Now, I'm wondering if at least two if not three won't be selected before the 2.1.

I think it could push them further back.  Just based on the number of "quality" rookie QBs, owners can wait longer.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

A lot will change after today.

Javonte and Elijah the only 2, for me, that'll disrupt things. Elijah the only WR i would put below Chase, depending on spot, as the other 4 ended up in not great spots, imo. 

Edited by Soulfly3
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1 minute ago, ghostguy123 said:

Bateman, terrible landing spot for him.  

Kadarius Toney is probably a lock to be a 1st rounder in drafts now.  Late 1st anyway.

Agree with the tier break after the top 3.  

What is Jacksonville thinking.  Silly

What makes you say that? What do you see him getting as he appears to be behind at least Golladay and Barkley in the pecking order?

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Just now, Soulfly3 said:

Javonte and Elijah the only 2, for me, that'll disrupt things. Elijah the only WR i would put below Chase, depending on spot, as the other 3 ended up in not great spots, imo. 

Yeah, "a lot" is overstating it. It might change some depending on Williams' landing spot. 

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8 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

A lot will change after today.

But my biggest question so far involving rookie dynasty drafts is how early will the QBs be drafted. Used to be you were reaching if you took the best QBs in the 2nd. Now, I'm wondering if at least two if not three won't be selected before the 2.1.

I think Lawrence and Fields will go in the first in a lot of start 1QB leagues.

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3 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What makes you say that? What do you see him getting as he appears to be behind at least Golladay and Barkley in the pecking order?

and probably behind Shepard and Engram as well. He seems like more of a gadget guy that will be a better NFL weapon than fantasy producer.

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2 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

Caveat: Javonte WIlliams could change this depending on his landing spot.

Anyone else here on this? 

Chase, Pitts and Najee are on their own island in the "top 3" rookies after rnd 1 (and likely period) and then a huge cliff.

Slim Reaper landed in an ok spot in PHI... Waddle's spot stinks due to my disataste for Tua... Toney is in a carousl of WRs,.. Etienne is a "3rd down back" ). don't buy it, but spot still a timeshare probably... Bateman with a guy who I still don't think is a longterm QB (actual QB) in the nfl...

This was somewhat ugly for rookie drafts, imo. You?

You believe more in Hurts than Lamar? 

Is that correct?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, massraider said:

You believe more in Hurts than Lamar? 

Is that correct?

I wouldn't say that at all, but BAL has many more weapons (lamar himself, dobbins, hollywood and andrews..oh, and watkins too now)

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What makes you say that? What do you see him getting as he appears to be behind at least Golladay and Barkley in the pecking order?

I see people drafting him in the 1st because he is an electric player taken in the top 20 of the NFL draft.  Not saying I think he SHOULD be a 1st rounder, but I think he consistently will be

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6 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

What makes you say that? What do you see him getting as he appears to be behind at least Golladay and Barkley in the pecking order?

He's a 1st rounder for sure, most drafts. Just not for me. 

This draft might wind up being a good buying opportunity to get players who fall because of landing spot. People's confidence in predicting the next 5 years of an NFL team is comical. 

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6 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

I wouldn't say that at all, but BAL has many more weapons (lamar himself, dobbins, hollywood and andrews..oh, and watkins too now)

and we know what Lamar is as a passer. We don't know what Hurts is. Plus, Hurts could be gone in 22 where Lamar is locked in for awhile. 

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7 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I see people drafting him in the 1st because he is an electric player taken in the top 20 of the NFL draft.  Not saying I think he SHOULD be a 1st rounder, but I think he consistently will be

Agreed, kind of like Ruggs last year. 

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4 minutes ago, massraider said:

People's confidence in predicting the next 5 years of an NFL team is comical. 

To a large extent I agree, however I am confident Lamar Jackson will be a Raven for at least several more years, and I am confident he wont have a WR that is a high scoring fantasy producer.  

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

To a large extent I agree, however I am confident Lamar Jackson will be a Raven for at least several more years, and I am confident he wont have a WR that is a high scoring fantasy producer.  

I think his ceiling is capped.  He's not getting 180 targets.  

 

10 minutes ago, Soulfly3 said:

I wouldn't say that at all, but BAL has many more weapons (lamar himself, dobbins, hollywood and andrews..oh, and watkins too now)

I would say this:  It's unlikely the Ravens add a true alpha at WR for a while now.  They have invested good capital in all those names.  They are all young. Bateman fans can expect him to become the WR1 for a good team.  Michael Thomas numbers are unlikely.  Top 8 WR? Unlikely.  

But the Ravens having all those weapons does mean that we can expect those to be the ONLY names there for 2 years.  

 

Unlike say, drafting Tee Higgins because of opportunity landing spot, and then watching him become Tyrell Williams overnight.  

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3 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

If something like -

J williams to SF, Elijah Moore to Chargers, and Marshall to Chiefs in Rd 2 happens, are any of them moving drastically up after the day 1 landing spots?

Just focusing on the WRs, I think both jump over everyone but Chase, MAYBE Smith, for me.  

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4 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

If something like -

J williams to SF, Elijah Moore to Chargers, and Marshall to Chiefs in Rd 2 happens, are any of them moving drastically up after the day 1 landing spots?

That puts Javonte above Najee for me.  That's just me, probably minority.  

I would love to see KC take a WR, just to watch the bloodlust.  

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4 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

E Moore can leapfrog Bateman - but only in PPR.

I'd love J Williams as a Jet.

Are you trying to give me heartburn?

I'm  just terrified that the whole team/organization is a mess, and will drag down Javonte, and a favorite of last year of mine, Mims.  

Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins

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3 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

This was somewhat ugly for rookie drafts, imo. 

For me the only major mover was ETN. Pre-draft I had it:

ETN/Chase/Pitts

Najee/Waddle

Now it's:

Najee/Chase/Pitts

Waddle

Najee gets the volume bump up, but I didn't have much of a difference the two tiers in the first place. I think there is a tier drop after Waddle (we'll see on Javonte), but cliff? Nah, that WR tier is a good one and...

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46 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

But my biggest question so far involving rookie dynasty drafts is how early will the QBs be drafted.

...then they will be there to soften any blow once that well runs dry.

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I can see Javonte going to the Broncos, which would put him in a tier below Chase/Harris/Pitts, in with Smith/Waddle. I think the Chargers, Raiders, Lions, and Chiefs will be in play for Elijah Moore, Terrace Marshall, and maybe Rondale Moore. If any of those guys go to LAC/GB/KC, I'd put them in with Smith/Waddle/Williams.

But yes, it's looking more and more like there is a clear tier of 3 that are separate from the rest. 

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4 minutes ago, woodstock said:

Javonte Williams is almost certainly not going to SF. He's not the type of back they draft. Javonte Williams is going to Atlanta or Miami, most likely. 

I can't see the Falcons burning their top two picks on offensive players when that defense is so dismal. Since they went with Pitts, I think they take a quality defensive player here; Moehring, Owusu-Koramoah, Samuel Jr come to mind. Dolphins could definitely be in play for Williams though. 

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17 minutes ago, massraider said:

ETN is going to fall to someone at 1.05, and they are going to get a steal.  

Well, he's gonna fall to 1.04 right now. 1.05 if Javonte lands in a beauty spot. But that's PROBABLY as far as he'd drop

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1 minute ago, woodstock said:

Why do you say that? I'd like to think so. 

If you are a believer in Trevor Lawrence, (and why wouldn't you be?), you have to assume this will be a viable offense for the future.  So that's good.  

Being a big part of the passing game is a MUST if your RB is gonna become an RB1 in FF.  We know ETN will be.  He gets 8 carries a game, you can think about Kamara numbers.  Has big play speed.  Has more long runs in half a season than Najee did in his career.  We think Najee and Javonte can contribute in the passing game, but smart money says ETN gets more targets than both of them.  And targets are worth a lot more than carries. James White has been a viable starter for years, and James White is no ETN.  

And I see no reason why he can't get 10-15 carries.  This offense might be clogged for a short time, but that might only last a season.  

The new coaches brought in two RBs, Hyde and ETN.  Hyde isn't a problem.  Goalline vulture? Maybe, but you aren't counting on Leroy Hoard carries from ETN anyway.  The guy that needs to be worried is the RB they didn't bring in, Robinson.  We see this every year, the coaches bring in their guys, and the guys already there get bounced. 

Me personally, I have doubts about the Jags front office, and Urban Meyer, so it's not my favorite landing spot, but they could be a bad team that scores points, and that's totally fine for ETN.  

I think a perceived 'bad' landing spot is a buying opportunity if you are an ETN believer.  

It's a bad freaking landing spot for James Robinson, that's what it was.  

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39 minutes ago, massraider said:

Are you trying to give me heartburn?

I'm  just terrified that the whole team/organization is a mess, and will drag down Javonte, and a favorite of last year of mine, Mims.  

Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins Javonte to the Dolphins

I also am weary of the jets, but running behind a young studly left side of Becton and AVT is a pretty nice setup. 

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2 minutes ago, massraider said:

It's a bad freaking landing spot for James Robinson, that's what it was.  

Your points are taken and pretty persuasive. To this I just say, "Yep." 

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1 minute ago, jtd13 said:

I also am weary of the jets, but running behind a young studly left side of Becton and AVT is a pretty nice setup. 

The Jets are the same as the 49ers in running scheme and fit. Javonte likely does not go to the Jets, though their RB cupboard is pretty bare. He's just not fast enough. 

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Situation matters, but situation changes.

Stuff like college production, breakout age, draft capital, athletic ability are all more important.  Much more important.  Situation is like SOS in fantasy, nice to look at , but you don't draft your team because of their playoff schedule.  

 

Don't take a lesser player because you think he has a better opportunity this year.  

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4 minutes ago, woodstock said:

The Jets are the same as the 49ers in running scheme and fit. Javonte likely does not go to the Jets, though their RB cupboard is pretty bare. He's just not fast enough. 

I don't think we know that. Just because LaFleur was under Shannahan doesn't mean he necessarily will prefer exact same personnel. IIRC people used the same logic to prefer Dion Lewis to Derrick Henry with the elder LaFleur.

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3 minutes ago, jtd13 said:

I don't think we know that. Just because LaFleur was under Shannahan doesn't mean he necessarily will prefer exact same personnel. IIRC people used the same logic to prefer Dion Lewis to Derrick Henry with the elder LaFleur.

Yeah, that's why I'm hedging a bit. He could very well go to the Jets as they don't have much there, but I'll need to see it to believe it. 

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13 minutes ago, massraider said:

Situation matters, but situation changes.

Stuff like college production, breakout age, draft capital, athletic ability are all more important.  Much more important.  Situation is like SOS in fantasy, nice to look at , but you don't draft your team because of their playoff schedule.  

 

Don't take a lesser player because you think he has a better opportunity this year.  

I have a warm spot in my heart for all the people who let me get Chubb at 1.07 or later by chasing immediate opportunity for Penny, Jones, and Freeman that year.

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1 hour ago, Pwingles said:

If something like -

J williams to SF, Elijah Moore to Chargers, and Marshall to Chiefs in Rd 2 happens, are any of them moving drastically up after the day 1 landing spots?

I don't know about scheme fit for Williams and SF but that has put him in the 1.01 convo. Moore to Chargers is actually worrisome because he is ideal for the slot and Keenan is already there. Marshall to the Chiefs leaps him ahead of every WR except Chase IMO. 

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2 hours ago, Andy Dufresne said:

A lot will change after today.

But my biggest question so far involving rookie dynasty drafts is how early will the QBs be drafted. Used to be you were reaching if you took the best QBs in the 2nd. Now, I'm wondering if at least two if not three won't be selected before the 2.1.

 

2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think Lawrence and Fields will go in the first in a lot of start 1QB leagues.

I don't know about Fields. In some maybe. But I won't let Lawrence get past any of my late 1sts.

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2 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think Lawrence and Fields will go in the first in a lot of start 1QB leagues.

Lance too is in play. He may not start right away but he's walking into a heck of set-up

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5 minutes ago, JamboTaylor said:

You just have to look at Vaughn in Tampa to not overvalue situation 

Would be a good experiment to go through the last few years and look at guys who rose due to situation and whether it worked out or not. Vaughn and CEH look like examples for why it's a bad idea. Any other names come to mind from recent years? 

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19 minutes ago, Ilov80s said:

Lance too is in play. He may not start right away but he's walking into a heck of set-up

He's my plan A, but I decided last night not to try and figure out what draft position to trade to until sometime tonight.

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